SlideShare una empresa de Scribd logo
1 de 57
Descargar para leer sin conexión
Mauro Kern
Executive Vice-President Airline Market




Airline Market Overview
A perspective from the 30 to 120-seat segment
Mar/2010
Forward Looking Statement


   This presentation includes forward-looking statements or statements about events
   or circumstances which have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking
   statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events
   and financial trends affecting our business and our future financial performance.
   These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and
   assumptions, including, among other things:                          general economic, political and
   business conditions, both in Brazil and in our market.
   The words “believes,” “may,” “will,” “estimates,” “continues,” “anticipates,”
   “intends,” “expects” and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking
   statements. We undertake no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-
   looking statements because of new information, future events or other factors. In
   light    of    these     risks     and     uncertainties,        the    forward-looking          events      and
   circumstances discussed in this presentation might not occur. Our actual results
   could differ substantially from those anticipated in our forward-looking statements.


The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Contents


            Air Transport Industry Review

            ERJ 145 Family

            E-Jets Family

            Competitive Scenario

            Product Development

            Market Outlook 2010-2019

The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Economic Scenario

 World Real GDP Evolution (USD 2005)
                             60



                             55
  Real GDP (US$ trillions)




                             50



                             45



                             40



                             35
                                  2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F



        World will return to pre-crisis level in 2010 (due to emerging countries)
                       USA and Europe will recover in 2011-12
 Source: The Economist (Feb/10)

The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Air Transport Demand - IATA

 World – International RPK Growth Rate (% yoy)

        12
        10
         8
         6
         4
         2
         0
        -2
        -4
        -6
        -8
       -10
       -12
                                    5.9%                                                      7.4%                                              1.6 %                                                      -3.5%
       -14
                               May-06




                                                                                     May-07




                                                                                                                                            May-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                  May-09
             Jan-06
                      Mar-06



                                        Jul-06




                                                                   Jan-07

                                                                            Mar-07



                                                                                               Jul-07




                                                                                                                          Jan-08

                                                                                                                                   Mar-08



                                                                                                                                                     Jul-08




                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-09

                                                                                                                                                                                         Mar-09



                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jul-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jan-10
                                                 Sep-06

                                                          Nov-06




                                                                                                        Sep-07

                                                                                                                 Nov-07




                                                                                                                                                              Sep-08

                                                                                                                                                                       Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Sep-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Nov-09
     IATA: “The industry starts 2010 with some enormous challenges.
          The worst is behind us, but it is not time to celebrate.”
 Source: IATA (Jan/10)

The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Demand Forecast – IATA and ICAO

 RPK Growth Rate (% yoy)
                                                                                 IATA              ICAO




                                     7,4
                    5,8                                           4,5                                     6,2            6,1
                                                                                        5,0 5,5
                                                                             3,3
                                              1,3

                                                           -3,1
                                                    -4,1
                 2006




                                  2007




                                           2008




                                                       2009 F




                                                                        2010 F




                                                                                          2011 F




                                                                                                                2012 F




                                                                                                                               2013 F
                          2009: Reduced demand due to economic crisis
                             2010-2013: Projected demand recovery
 Source: IATA and ICAO (Dec/09)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Air Transport Industry Review – a summary

          Gradual recovery of market demand

          Weak revenue environment, signs of improvement (IATA
          halved its loss forecast for 2010 to US$2.8bi)

          Continuous efficiency improvement and cost reductions

          Limited aircraft financing resources

          More consolidations & mergers and fewer start-ups

          Long term growth in air transport demand despite current
          crisis

The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Air Transport Demand – US Mainline vs. Regionals

    US Domestic
                600


                500
RPM (Billion)




                400       Mainline: -0,2% cagr                                         FAA Aviation Forecast

                300                                                                                       2009-
                                                                                         RPM cagr
                                                                                                          2030F
                200
                                                                                          Mainline
                                                                                                          +2,9%
                          Regional: +13,3% cagr                                           Carriers
                100
                                                                                          Regional
                                                                                                          +4,2%
                                                                                          Carriers
                 0


                        F

                        F
                      00

                      01

                      02

                      03

                      04

                      05

                      06

                      07

                      08

                       E
                     10

                     11
                     09
                   20

                   20

                   20

                   20

                   20

                   20

                   20

                   20

                   20



                  20

                  20
                  20




FAA Forecast (Mar2010):                         higher growth rates for Regionals
                                                increased use of 70-90 regional jet aircraft
     Source: FAA
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
1,100 ERJ145 Platforms Already Delivered
Dec 1996
Dec 1996



First Delivery
First Delivery

Dec 1998
Dec 1998




Dec 1999
Dec 1999




Aug 2000
Aug 2000


                                                          September, 2007
Mar 2001
Mar 2001                    Sep 2001
                            Sep 2001              May 2002
                                                  May 2002             May 2003
                                                                       May 2003             May 2004
                                                                                            May 2004            Feb 2005
                                                                                                                Feb 2005




 The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Pre-Owned ERJ Transfers


                                         35

                                         30
                Number of ERJs (units)



                                         25

                                         20

                                         15

                                         10

                                          5

                                          0
                                              2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009



             61 pre-owned ERJ transfers in the last two years (2008-09)
 Source: Embraer (Mar/09)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Pre-Owned ERJ Transactions



                                                                                   Passaredo - Brazil
BMI – United Kingdom                       Trans States - US




FinnComm - Finland                                                                 Aeromexico Connect - Mexico


                                           Dniproavia - Ukraine


                                                                                   Diexim Expresso - Angola
Satena - Colombia




 Athens Airways - Greece                    City Airline - Sweden                  Republic - US

                 Nearly 170 pre-owned ERJ transactions since 2000
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
1st. E195 Delivery to Air Dolomiti (Italy)

 (January 27, 2009)




The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
1st. E170 Delivery to Fuji Dream Airlines (Japan)

 (February 20, 2009)




The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
1st. E190 Delivery to Niki (Austria)

 (May 14, 2009)




The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
1st. E195 Delivery to Augsburg Airways (Germany)

 (June 9, 2009)




The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
1st. E195 Delivery to Windrose (Ukraine)

 (June 22, 2009)




The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
1st. E175 Delivery to Trip (Brazil)

 (June 24, 2009)




The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
1st. E190 Delivery to LAM (Mozambique)

 (July 31, 2009)




The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
1st. E170 Delivery to BA Cityflyer (United Kingdom)

 (September 3, 2009)




The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
600 th.   E-Jet
delivered to LOT Polish Airlines
    September 15th., 2009 !!!
1st. E195 Delivery to Lufthansa Cityline (Germany)

 (September 24, 2009)




The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
New E-Jet Customer – Air Astana (Kazakhstan)

 (Nov/09 ; 2 E190 Jetscape)




The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
New E-Jet Customer – Oman Air (Oman)

 (Nov/09 ; 5 E175)




The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
New E-Jet Customer – Austral (Argentina)

 (20 E190)




The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
1st. E170 Delivery to Gulf Air (Barhain)

 (March 4, 2010)




The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E190 at London City Airport

 (2010)
           Carriers cleared to use Embraer 190 at London City
              “BA CityFlyer, Baboo and Lufthansa Cityline will be the
              first to operate the EMBRAER 190 out of LCY. ”


             Baboo debuts Embraer 190 at London City
                          “We are especially proud to be the first to
                          operate this aircraft, the most comfortable
                          and popular regional jet, into this most user-
                          friendly airport” – Jacques Bankir, CEO of Baboo



            BA CityFlyer starts introducing Embraer 190s

                          “We are now on the last leg of our fleet
                          replacement programme and our passengers
                          will benefit from the extra space these new,
                          greener aircraft offer.”
                          – Peter Simpson, Managing Director of BA Cityflyer




The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Grand Slam: E-Jets at Europe´s top airlines

     Orders                  Backlog

   10 E170                     3
   10 E190

    Orders                   Backlog

   17 E190                     7



    Orders                   Backlog

   17 E190                     16
   15 E195

    Orders                   Backlog

    6 E170                     6
    5 E190
  Source: Embraer (Dec/09)

The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
620+ E-Jets. 56 Airlines. 39 Countries
Current Environment Requires Fleet Optimization

      Decreasing
    Demand & Yields
                                                                           Fleet efficiency
       Capacity Cuts                                                      is a critical issue

          Fuel &
                                                                                 to airlines
        Environment
         Pressure


        Right-sized aircraft help airlines to improve
            fuel burn (environment) and results
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Market Density Profile - USA

                    500
                                        51-150
                                        PDEW
Number of Markets




                    400                 55%
                                                              151-300
                    300                                        22%                          >300
                                                                                            23%
                    200


                    100


                      0
                          51 - 75      100       150    200    250      300   350   400    500     1000      >1000
                                                       Passenger per Day Each Way (PDEW)

                                  USA domestic   mainly low-mid density markets
                                              77% up to 300 PDEW
               Source: US DOT (3Q09)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Market Density Profile – Latin America
                    300

                                      26-100
                    250               PDEW
Number of Markets




                                      54%       101-300
                    200                          28%

                                                                                     >300
                    150
                                                                                     18%

                    100


                     50


                      0
                           26-50        100    200      300     400    500     600          700    800       >800
                                                     Passenger per Day Each Way (PDEW)

                             Intra Latin America   mainly low-mid density markets
                                              82% up to 300 PDEW
               Source: SABRE (2009)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Market Density Profile – China
                    250
                                 26-100
                                  46%                    101-300
                    200
                                                           30%
Number of Markets




                    150
                                                                                                                       >300
                                                                                                                       24%
                    100



                     50



                      0
                           26-50          100         200          300          400         500            600   700     800   900   1000 >1000
                                                                                      Daily Passengers

                                               China   mainly low-mid density markets
                                                   76% up to 300 daily passengers
              Source: China Airline Traffic Statistics 2008 (Markets with at least one weekly frequency)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Passengers per Departure – USA
 Narrowbodies (121-210 seats)
                               1000
                                                                                                          Daily
                                900
                                                                                                       Frequencies
     Annual Flights (x 1000)




                                800
                                700                                                                          >2
                                600
                                500
                                400                                                                          <=2

                                300
                                200
                                100
                                 0
                                      46-60   61-75   76-90   91-105   106-120   121-135    > 135

                                                                       Passengers per Departure

       Around 610,000 flights (~18%) of total J121-210 with loads
   from 61 to 105 pax per departure and low daily frequencies (up to 2)
  Source: US DOT (Nov/08-Oct/09)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
The CASM Paradigm




                                                                       2,095

                                                       1,434
                                                                     1,305

                                          454                                733
                                                       177


                                                             (504)
                                     (1,051)

                                                (1,757)                                    Environment:     US LCC
                                                                                             Avg Sector:    800 sm
                                                                                               Avg Fare:    100 USD
                                                                                              Fuel Price:   2 USD/gal
                                         61‐75         76‐90         90‐105




The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
The CASM Paradigm – the ultimate rule
                                              CONTRIBUTION TO PROFIT PER FLIGHT
          Contribution to Profit per Flight                                                        Fare Level




                                                   100‐SEATER                                    NB

                                                       Pax/Flight < 120                              Pax/Flight > 120


                                                                                  Passenger Demand per Flight




        “A place for everything and everything in its place”

The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets Deployment

                                                     29%
                  21%
                  8%                                                      5%              32%
                                                     25%
                  14%
                                                                                           7%
                                                     6%                   33%

                  57%                                                      5%             49%
                                                     40%

                                                                          62%
                                     20%          Europe                                  12%
                                                   Europe     7%
                                                                                                         11%
               North
                North                                                                    C h in a
                                                                                         China
              America
               America                20%
                                                              33%
                                     31%                                                                 39%
                                                                      Middle East
                                                                      Middle East
                                                              8%

                                     49%
                                                              52%                                        50%



                                     Latin
                                    Latin                    Africa
                                                             Africa                                 Asia Pacific
                                                                                                    Asia P acific
                                    America
                                   America


World                              50%                                    20%              9%              21%

                            Right-sizing                         New Markets Replacement                 Natural
 Source: OAG (1Q10)                                                                   of old Jets        Growth
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets: Complementing Narrowbodies


                      Madrid – Paris (ORY)   Edmouton–Vancouver      San Salvador - Guatemala      Amsterdam – Berlin

                  Dec/08           Dec/09     Dec/08     Dec/09         Sep/08       Sep/09        Jan/09        Jan/10
    SEATS             744           606       1032        930            494           342           754          611
     06:00                                    E190        E190
     07:00
                                                          A320          A320          A320
     08:00            B738          B738      A320                                                   F70          B737
     09:00
                                              E190        E190
     10:00                                                                                          B737
     11:00                                    A320        A320
     12:00
     13:00            B738         E195                                               E190
     14:00                                                                                                        E190
                                              A320        A320
     15:00                                                              A321                        B737
     16:00
                                              A319        A319
     17:00                                                                                                        B737
                                              E190
     18:00            B738          B738                                A320          E190          B737
                                             CRJ700       E190
     19:00
     20:00                                                                                          B737          B737
     21:00            B738         E195       A319        E190
     22:00
     23:00
 Source: OAG (2010)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets Complementing Narrowbodies




The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets: Replacing Narrowbodies


                     Frankfurt - Katowice   Amsterdam - Helsinki    Los Angeles - Vancouver       Brisbane - Oakhampton

                     Sep/08       Sep/09    Dec/08       Dec/09       May/07        May/09          Sep/08       Sep/09
         SEATS        714          420       513          392           480          465             690           520
          06:00      B737         E170                                                              B737          E190
          07:00                                          E190          A319          E190
          08:00
          09:00                                                                                     B737          E190
          10:00                              B737        E190
          11:00                                                        A319          E190
          12:00      B737         E170
          13:00                                                                                     B737          E190
          14:00      B737         E170       B737        E190          A319          E190
          15:00
          16:00      B737         E170                                                              B737          E190
          17:00
          18:00      B737         E170                                 A319          E190
          19:00                                                                                     B737          E190
          20:00                              B737        E190
          21:00
          22:00      B737         E170
          23:00
Source: OAG (2009)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets Helping Explore New Markets

              Low Cost Carriers with Two Fleet Types
Seats
150+




                         A320                     B737-700                         A320                          A320
100




                         E190                         E190                          E190                         E190




        North America                Asia Pacific                     Europe                   Middle East


The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets Helping Reduce Costs and Fuel Burn




The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets: Direct Replacement Benefits

 Fuel Burn




 Source: www.eforefficiency.com
 Note: European economic conditions, fuel at 0.50 EUR/liter

The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Replacement Opportunities - World
 (Jets 61-120 seats)
                                            350
                                                                              B737-500
                       Number of Aircraft   300

                                            250                                              B737-200
                                                        Bae 146
                                            200

                                            150                              F100
                                                                                                    DC-9
                                                                                    TU-134
                                            100
                                                      B717-200      YAK-42

                                            50
                                                                       F70                   F28
                                             0
                                                  5               15                25             35
                                                                    Average Age (years)

                           Nearly 1,000 aircraft with more than 15 years old
 Source: OAG (Dec/09 ; Passenger, Active in Service, Scheduled Services)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets Family Order Book




                                                Firm                                                Firm
                                                                Options         Deliveries
                                               Orders                                              Backlog
             EMBRAER 170                          187               48               170               17
             EMBRAER 175                          140              178               125               15
             EMBRAER 190                          448              426               263              185
             EMBRAER 195                           87               70                47               40

                     Total                        862              722              605               257
                                                                                                  (December 31th 2009)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets Worldwide Distribution


              Customers                                                                 Firm Orders




                Diversified customer-base across five continents
        Increased presence in emerging markets with established carriers

  Source: Embraer (Dec/09)

The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets Backlog Evolution

 Backlog Share per Region (# of Aircraft):
                             322 Acft                                   257 Acft
                              1%
                              8%
                                                                               32%                             Emerging Countries
                               20%

                                                                               16%                             RoW

                                                                               22%                             Europe
                               71%

                                                                                                               North America
                                                                               31%



                              2005                                        Dec/2009




            North America + Europe share decreased from 91% to 53%

  Source: Embraer (Dec/09)                                         Emerging Countries include Brazil, Russia, India, China and Eastern Europe.
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets Schedule Reliability & Completion Rate

             Schedule Reliability: 99.2% ; Completion Rate: 99.9%
            100,00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              99.9%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 99,88

             99,75




             99,50


                                                                                                                                                                                                                              99.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                99,22
             99,25
SR/CR (%)




             99,00




             98,75




             98,50




             98,25




             98,00
                                             MAY




                                                                                                                       MAY




                                                                                                                                                                                                MAY
                                                         JUL




                                                                                                                                   JUL




                                                                                                                                                                                                            JUL
                           FEB




                                                                     SEP



                                                                                 NOV




                                                                                                     FEB




                                                                                                                                               SEP



                                                                                                                                                           NOV




                                                                                                                                                                              FEB




                                                                                                                                                                                                                        SEP



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    NOV
                     JAN



                                 MAR

                                       APR



                                                   JUN




                                                                                         DEC

                                                                                               JAN



                                                                                                           MAR

                                                                                                                 APR



                                                                                                                             JUN




                                                                                                                                                                 DEC

                                                                                                                                                                       JAN



                                                                                                                                                                                    MAR

                                                                                                                                                                                          APR



                                                                                                                                                                                                      JUN




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          DEC
                                                               AUG




                                                                                                                                         AUG




                                                                                                                                                                                                                  AUG
                                                                           OCT




                                                                                                                                                     OCT




                                                                                                                                                                                                                              OCT
                                                    2007                                                                      2008                                                                     2009


                                                                                       SR - MONTH                  SR - L12M                   CR - MONTH                    CR - L12M

            The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Market Share - World (Jets 61-120 seats)
                                   Embraer: 170/175/190/195                  Sukhoi: Superjet 100
                                   Bombardier: CRJ700/900/1000; CS110        Comac: ARJ-21
                                   Airbus: A318                              Antonov: An-148
                                   Boeing: B737-600                          Mitsubishi: MRJ90




  Considering accumulated Net Orders up to Dec/09.

The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
E-Jets vs. New Entrants

 Competitive Scenario
                                120


                                                         E195                                        CS100
                                110


                                100                                 E190                           110 Seats
   Seat Capacity (32'' pitch)




                                                                    SSJ100/95
                                                  ARJ21                               100 Seats
                                90

                                                         MRJ90
                                           E175
                                80
                                                                        70-90 Seats
                                                  E170
                                70
                                                         MRJ70

                                60
                                  1800   2000      2200          2400      2600         2800      3000        3200
                                                                 Range (nm)

The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Competition: CS100 vs. E195




            4,500 kg heavier than E195

            Higher DOC than E195

            Risk associated with new engine technology (GTF)

            Implications for CS100                        perceived as heavy and
            inneficient
            Momentum after Republic                           CS300 vs. A319/737-700
            CS 150-seater derivative                        Competition vs. A320/737-800

The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Competition: E175 vs. MRJ90




          Major design review in 2009: back to metallic wing, increased
                                             cross-section.
          3,500 kg heavier than E175
          Equivalent DOC vs. E175 but at higher risks:
                 Challenging integration and development
                 Risk associated with new engine technology (GTF)
          TSA deal             no bid ; price agressiveness                          sustainable??
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Expected Technologies for Commercial Aviation
                                                      2015/2016



       Wingtip            Advanced structures             Avionics                                   Geared and Adv.
                                                                                 Electric taxi
       devices            Composites / Metallic        functionalities                               Turbofan engines


                                                      2017/2019




 APU       Fuel Cell      Carbon composites             2nd generation                Health monitoring systems
                          nanotubes (2nd gen.)             GTF/ATF                   (On condition maintenance)


                                                      2020/2025



     Open Rotor / New Configs / Advanced Aerodynamics                       Single pilot capability
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
New Technologies and Next Generation

                                                                                  Industry focus on new
                                                                                  technologies maturity




                       2015/2016                          2017/2019                             2020/2025
 Current Technology
  Potential COC vs. 




                                          4%
                                                                              7%



The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Competitive Product Positioning along time
  Competitive positioning code:                        higher              average                lower

                                                   New entrants
                                                   introduction                         Next Gen NB


 New entrants                                                             mature
                                                     new entrant                                competition from
competitiveness                                                            new
                                                     maturation                                   next-gen NB
                                                                          entrant

                  2010                             2015                             2020


                                                  New entrants
                                                                                                         Next Gen NB
                                                  introduction
  New entrants
competitiveness
   in case of                                        new entrant                                         competition from
                                                                           mature new entrant              next-gen NB
 NB re-engining                                      maturation

                   2010                            2015                              2020


 The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Embraer Market Forecast (2010-2019)

  Projected Deliveries - Jets


                          Market Segment                              2010 – 2019
                                   (Seats)                             Deliveries

                                    30-60                                     60

                                    61-90                                   1015

                                   91-120                                   1550

                                  30-120                                   2625


      Around 2600 jet deliveries (US$ 80bi) in the next 10 years.

The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
Embraer Market Forecast (2010-2019)

 2,625 jet deliveries (30-120 seats)


                                                                              Russia /
                                                                                CIS
                                                    Europe
                     North                                                     155
                    America                          580                        6%
                     840                             22%

                      32%                                                                China

                                                                     Middle
                                                                                         340
                                                   Africa             East               13%
                                                    80               105
                                                    3%                4%                    Asia
                               Latin
                                                                                           Pacific
                              America

                               315                                                         210
                                                                                            8%
                                12%



The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
620+ E-Jets. 56 Airlines. 39 Countries

Más contenido relacionado

Similar a Commercial Aviation

Commercial aviation emb_day_2011
Commercial aviation emb_day_2011Commercial aviation emb_day_2011
Commercial aviation emb_day_2011Embraer RI
 
Commercial aviation emb_day_2011
Commercial aviation emb_day_2011Commercial aviation emb_day_2011
Commercial aviation emb_day_2011Embraer RI
 
.ashland ADC%20info
.ashland ADC%20info.ashland ADC%20info
.ashland ADC%20infofinance29
 
ashland ADC%20info
ashland ADC%20infoashland ADC%20info
ashland ADC%20infofinance29
 
.ashland apm%20info
.ashland apm%20info.ashland apm%20info
.ashland apm%20infofinance29
 
ashland apm%20info
ashland apm%20infoashland apm%20info
ashland apm%20infofinance29
 
.ashland awt%20info
.ashland awt%20info.ashland awt%20info
.ashland awt%20infofinance29
 
ashland awt%20info
ashland awt%20infoashland awt%20info
ashland awt%20infofinance29
 
.ashland all_fundamentals
.ashland all_fundamentals.ashland all_fundamentals
.ashland all_fundamentalsfinance29
 
.ashland AAIF%20info
.ashland AAIF%20info.ashland AAIF%20info
.ashland AAIF%20infofinance29
 
ashland AAIF%20info
ashland AAIF%20infoashland AAIF%20info
ashland AAIF%20infofinance29
 
ashland all_fundamentals
ashland all_fundamentalsashland all_fundamentals
ashland all_fundamentalsfinance29
 
Defense embraer-day-2010-1029
Defense embraer-day-2010-1029Defense embraer-day-2010-1029
Defense embraer-day-2010-1029Embraer RI
 
Commercial aviation-embraer-day-2010-1029
Commercial aviation-embraer-day-2010-1029Commercial aviation-embraer-day-2010-1029
Commercial aviation-embraer-day-2010-1029Embraer RI
 
ashland ACM%20info
ashland ACM%20infoashland ACM%20info
ashland ACM%20infofinance29
 
CrossborderInforma: Regional Border Crossing Trends & Economic Impacts
CrossborderInforma: Regional Border Crossing Trends & Economic ImpactsCrossborderInforma: Regional Border Crossing Trends & Economic Impacts
CrossborderInforma: Regional Border Crossing Trends & Economic ImpactsCrossborder Group
 
Swatch share class arb
Swatch share class arbSwatch share class arb
Swatch share class arbjmiller13346
 
August 2011 Empire Title Real Estate stats
August 2011 Empire Title Real Estate statsAugust 2011 Empire Title Real Estate stats
August 2011 Empire Title Real Estate statsDoreen At Work
 
Azuma One Pager
Azuma One PagerAzuma One Pager
Azuma One Pagerkiter5
 
Icici prudential regular gold savings fund presentation
Icici prudential regular gold savings fund   presentationIcici prudential regular gold savings fund   presentation
Icici prudential regular gold savings fund presentationsuresh kumar rayaprolu
 

Similar a Commercial Aviation (20)

Commercial aviation emb_day_2011
Commercial aviation emb_day_2011Commercial aviation emb_day_2011
Commercial aviation emb_day_2011
 
Commercial aviation emb_day_2011
Commercial aviation emb_day_2011Commercial aviation emb_day_2011
Commercial aviation emb_day_2011
 
.ashland ADC%20info
.ashland ADC%20info.ashland ADC%20info
.ashland ADC%20info
 
ashland ADC%20info
ashland ADC%20infoashland ADC%20info
ashland ADC%20info
 
.ashland apm%20info
.ashland apm%20info.ashland apm%20info
.ashland apm%20info
 
ashland apm%20info
ashland apm%20infoashland apm%20info
ashland apm%20info
 
.ashland awt%20info
.ashland awt%20info.ashland awt%20info
.ashland awt%20info
 
ashland awt%20info
ashland awt%20infoashland awt%20info
ashland awt%20info
 
.ashland all_fundamentals
.ashland all_fundamentals.ashland all_fundamentals
.ashland all_fundamentals
 
.ashland AAIF%20info
.ashland AAIF%20info.ashland AAIF%20info
.ashland AAIF%20info
 
ashland AAIF%20info
ashland AAIF%20infoashland AAIF%20info
ashland AAIF%20info
 
ashland all_fundamentals
ashland all_fundamentalsashland all_fundamentals
ashland all_fundamentals
 
Defense embraer-day-2010-1029
Defense embraer-day-2010-1029Defense embraer-day-2010-1029
Defense embraer-day-2010-1029
 
Commercial aviation-embraer-day-2010-1029
Commercial aviation-embraer-day-2010-1029Commercial aviation-embraer-day-2010-1029
Commercial aviation-embraer-day-2010-1029
 
ashland ACM%20info
ashland ACM%20infoashland ACM%20info
ashland ACM%20info
 
CrossborderInforma: Regional Border Crossing Trends & Economic Impacts
CrossborderInforma: Regional Border Crossing Trends & Economic ImpactsCrossborderInforma: Regional Border Crossing Trends & Economic Impacts
CrossborderInforma: Regional Border Crossing Trends & Economic Impacts
 
Swatch share class arb
Swatch share class arbSwatch share class arb
Swatch share class arb
 
August 2011 Empire Title Real Estate stats
August 2011 Empire Title Real Estate statsAugust 2011 Empire Title Real Estate stats
August 2011 Empire Title Real Estate stats
 
Azuma One Pager
Azuma One PagerAzuma One Pager
Azuma One Pager
 
Icici prudential regular gold savings fund presentation
Icici prudential regular gold savings fund   presentationIcici prudential regular gold savings fund   presentation
Icici prudential regular gold savings fund presentation
 

Más de Embraer RI

Embraer march 2016 book ri
Embraer march 2016 book riEmbraer march 2016 book ri
Embraer march 2016 book riEmbraer RI
 
5.0 embraer day ny march2016 defense r.15
5.0 embraer day ny march2016 defense r.155.0 embraer day ny march2016 defense r.15
5.0 embraer day ny march2016 defense r.15Embraer RI
 
4.0 embraer day br 2016 commercial aviation rev7
4.0 embraer day br 2016 commercial aviation rev74.0 embraer day br 2016 commercial aviation rev7
4.0 embraer day br 2016 commercial aviation rev7Embraer RI
 
3.0 embraer day march 2016 final2
3.0 embraer day march 2016 final23.0 embraer day march 2016 final2
3.0 embraer day march 2016 final2Embraer RI
 
2.0 embraer day agenda
2.0 embraer day agenda2.0 embraer day agenda
2.0 embraer day agendaEmbraer RI
 
1.0 embraer 4 q15_results_final_v2
1.0 embraer 4 q15_results_final_v21.0 embraer 4 q15_results_final_v2
1.0 embraer 4 q15_results_final_v2Embraer RI
 
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_33 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3Embraer RI
 
Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)
Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)
Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)Embraer RI
 
Embraer february 2016 book ri
Embraer february 2016 book riEmbraer february 2016 book ri
Embraer february 2016 book riEmbraer RI
 
Embraer december 2015 book ri
Embraer december 2015 book riEmbraer december 2015 book ri
Embraer december 2015 book riEmbraer RI
 
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final_v2_sc_site
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final_v2_sc_site5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final_v2_sc_site
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final_v2_sc_siteEmbraer RI
 
Embraer november 2015 book ri
Embraer november 2015 book riEmbraer november 2015 book ri
Embraer november 2015 book riEmbraer RI
 
1 embraer 3-q15_results_final
1 embraer 3-q15_results_final1 embraer 3-q15_results_final
1 embraer 3-q15_results_finalEmbraer RI
 
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-finalEmbraer RI
 
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev-final
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev-final2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev-final
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev-finalEmbraer RI
 
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_33 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3Embraer RI
 
Embraer 3 q15_results_final
Embraer 3 q15_results_finalEmbraer 3 q15_results_final
Embraer 3 q15_results_finalEmbraer RI
 
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev9
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev92015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev9
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev9Embraer RI
 
Embraer 2 q15_results_final
Embraer 2 q15_results_finalEmbraer 2 q15_results_final
Embraer 2 q15_results_finalEmbraer RI
 
Embraer august 2015 book ri
Embraer august 2015 book riEmbraer august 2015 book ri
Embraer august 2015 book riEmbraer RI
 

Más de Embraer RI (20)

Embraer march 2016 book ri
Embraer march 2016 book riEmbraer march 2016 book ri
Embraer march 2016 book ri
 
5.0 embraer day ny march2016 defense r.15
5.0 embraer day ny march2016 defense r.155.0 embraer day ny march2016 defense r.15
5.0 embraer day ny march2016 defense r.15
 
4.0 embraer day br 2016 commercial aviation rev7
4.0 embraer day br 2016 commercial aviation rev74.0 embraer day br 2016 commercial aviation rev7
4.0 embraer day br 2016 commercial aviation rev7
 
3.0 embraer day march 2016 final2
3.0 embraer day march 2016 final23.0 embraer day march 2016 final2
3.0 embraer day march 2016 final2
 
2.0 embraer day agenda
2.0 embraer day agenda2.0 embraer day agenda
2.0 embraer day agenda
 
1.0 embraer 4 q15_results_final_v2
1.0 embraer 4 q15_results_final_v21.0 embraer 4 q15_results_final_v2
1.0 embraer 4 q15_results_final_v2
 
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_33 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
 
Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)
Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)
Emb day executive aviation oct2013 (2)
 
Embraer february 2016 book ri
Embraer february 2016 book riEmbraer february 2016 book ri
Embraer february 2016 book ri
 
Embraer december 2015 book ri
Embraer december 2015 book riEmbraer december 2015 book ri
Embraer december 2015 book ri
 
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final_v2_sc_site
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final_v2_sc_site5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final_v2_sc_site
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final_v2_sc_site
 
Embraer november 2015 book ri
Embraer november 2015 book riEmbraer november 2015 book ri
Embraer november 2015 book ri
 
1 embraer 3-q15_results_final
1 embraer 3-q15_results_final1 embraer 3-q15_results_final
1 embraer 3-q15_results_final
 
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final
5 embraer day 2015 vae bf-final
 
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev-final
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev-final2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev-final
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev-final
 
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_33 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
3 embraer day ny 2015 defesa-final_3
 
Embraer 3 q15_results_final
Embraer 3 q15_results_finalEmbraer 3 q15_results_final
Embraer 3 q15_results_final
 
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev9
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev92015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev9
2015 10 8 emb day - commercial rev9
 
Embraer 2 q15_results_final
Embraer 2 q15_results_finalEmbraer 2 q15_results_final
Embraer 2 q15_results_final
 
Embraer august 2015 book ri
Embraer august 2015 book riEmbraer august 2015 book ri
Embraer august 2015 book ri
 

Commercial Aviation

  • 1. Mauro Kern Executive Vice-President Airline Market Airline Market Overview A perspective from the 30 to 120-seat segment Mar/2010
  • 2. Forward Looking Statement This presentation includes forward-looking statements or statements about events or circumstances which have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends affecting our business and our future financial performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other things: general economic, political and business conditions, both in Brazil and in our market. The words “believes,” “may,” “will,” “estimates,” “continues,” “anticipates,” “intends,” “expects” and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward- looking statements because of new information, future events or other factors. In light of these risks and uncertainties, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this presentation might not occur. Our actual results could differ substantially from those anticipated in our forward-looking statements. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 3. Contents Air Transport Industry Review ERJ 145 Family E-Jets Family Competitive Scenario Product Development Market Outlook 2010-2019 The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 4. Economic Scenario World Real GDP Evolution (USD 2005) 60 55 Real GDP (US$ trillions) 50 45 40 35 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F World will return to pre-crisis level in 2010 (due to emerging countries) USA and Europe will recover in 2011-12 Source: The Economist (Feb/10) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 5. Air Transport Demand - IATA World – International RPK Growth Rate (% yoy) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 5.9% 7.4% 1.6 % -3.5% -14 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 Jan-06 Mar-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Sep-06 Nov-06 Sep-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Nov-08 Sep-09 Nov-09 IATA: “The industry starts 2010 with some enormous challenges. The worst is behind us, but it is not time to celebrate.” Source: IATA (Jan/10) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 6. Demand Forecast – IATA and ICAO RPK Growth Rate (% yoy) IATA ICAO 7,4 5,8 4,5 6,2 6,1 5,0 5,5 3,3 1,3 -3,1 -4,1 2006 2007 2008 2009 F 2010 F 2011 F 2012 F 2013 F 2009: Reduced demand due to economic crisis 2010-2013: Projected demand recovery Source: IATA and ICAO (Dec/09) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 7. Air Transport Industry Review – a summary Gradual recovery of market demand Weak revenue environment, signs of improvement (IATA halved its loss forecast for 2010 to US$2.8bi) Continuous efficiency improvement and cost reductions Limited aircraft financing resources More consolidations & mergers and fewer start-ups Long term growth in air transport demand despite current crisis The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 8. Air Transport Demand – US Mainline vs. Regionals US Domestic 600 500 RPM (Billion) 400 Mainline: -0,2% cagr FAA Aviation Forecast 300 2009- RPM cagr 2030F 200 Mainline +2,9% Regional: +13,3% cagr Carriers 100 Regional +4,2% Carriers 0 F F 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 E 10 11 09 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 FAA Forecast (Mar2010): higher growth rates for Regionals increased use of 70-90 regional jet aircraft Source: FAA The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 9. 1,100 ERJ145 Platforms Already Delivered Dec 1996 Dec 1996 First Delivery First Delivery Dec 1998 Dec 1998 Dec 1999 Dec 1999 Aug 2000 Aug 2000 September, 2007 Mar 2001 Mar 2001 Sep 2001 Sep 2001 May 2002 May 2002 May 2003 May 2003 May 2004 May 2004 Feb 2005 Feb 2005 The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 10. Pre-Owned ERJ Transfers 35 30 Number of ERJs (units) 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 61 pre-owned ERJ transfers in the last two years (2008-09) Source: Embraer (Mar/09) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 11. Pre-Owned ERJ Transactions Passaredo - Brazil BMI – United Kingdom Trans States - US FinnComm - Finland Aeromexico Connect - Mexico Dniproavia - Ukraine Diexim Expresso - Angola Satena - Colombia Athens Airways - Greece City Airline - Sweden Republic - US Nearly 170 pre-owned ERJ transactions since 2000 The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 12. 1st. E195 Delivery to Air Dolomiti (Italy) (January 27, 2009) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 13. 1st. E170 Delivery to Fuji Dream Airlines (Japan) (February 20, 2009) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 14. 1st. E190 Delivery to Niki (Austria) (May 14, 2009) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 15. 1st. E195 Delivery to Augsburg Airways (Germany) (June 9, 2009) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 16. 1st. E195 Delivery to Windrose (Ukraine) (June 22, 2009) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 17. 1st. E175 Delivery to Trip (Brazil) (June 24, 2009) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 18. 1st. E190 Delivery to LAM (Mozambique) (July 31, 2009) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 19. 1st. E170 Delivery to BA Cityflyer (United Kingdom) (September 3, 2009) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 20. 600 th. E-Jet delivered to LOT Polish Airlines September 15th., 2009 !!!
  • 21. 1st. E195 Delivery to Lufthansa Cityline (Germany) (September 24, 2009) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 22. New E-Jet Customer – Air Astana (Kazakhstan) (Nov/09 ; 2 E190 Jetscape) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 23. New E-Jet Customer – Oman Air (Oman) (Nov/09 ; 5 E175) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 24. New E-Jet Customer – Austral (Argentina) (20 E190) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 25. 1st. E170 Delivery to Gulf Air (Barhain) (March 4, 2010) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 26. E190 at London City Airport (2010) Carriers cleared to use Embraer 190 at London City “BA CityFlyer, Baboo and Lufthansa Cityline will be the first to operate the EMBRAER 190 out of LCY. ” Baboo debuts Embraer 190 at London City “We are especially proud to be the first to operate this aircraft, the most comfortable and popular regional jet, into this most user- friendly airport” – Jacques Bankir, CEO of Baboo BA CityFlyer starts introducing Embraer 190s “We are now on the last leg of our fleet replacement programme and our passengers will benefit from the extra space these new, greener aircraft offer.” – Peter Simpson, Managing Director of BA Cityflyer The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 27. Grand Slam: E-Jets at Europe´s top airlines Orders Backlog 10 E170 3 10 E190 Orders Backlog 17 E190 7 Orders Backlog 17 E190 16 15 E195 Orders Backlog 6 E170 6 5 E190 Source: Embraer (Dec/09) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 28. 620+ E-Jets. 56 Airlines. 39 Countries
  • 29. Current Environment Requires Fleet Optimization Decreasing Demand & Yields Fleet efficiency Capacity Cuts is a critical issue Fuel & to airlines Environment Pressure Right-sized aircraft help airlines to improve fuel burn (environment) and results The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 30. Market Density Profile - USA 500 51-150 PDEW Number of Markets 400 55% 151-300 300 22% >300 23% 200 100 0 51 - 75 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 500 1000 >1000 Passenger per Day Each Way (PDEW) USA domestic mainly low-mid density markets 77% up to 300 PDEW Source: US DOT (3Q09) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 31. Market Density Profile – Latin America 300 26-100 250 PDEW Number of Markets 54% 101-300 200 28% >300 150 18% 100 50 0 26-50 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 >800 Passenger per Day Each Way (PDEW) Intra Latin America mainly low-mid density markets 82% up to 300 PDEW Source: SABRE (2009) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 32. Market Density Profile – China 250 26-100 46% 101-300 200 30% Number of Markets 150 >300 24% 100 50 0 26-50 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 >1000 Daily Passengers China mainly low-mid density markets 76% up to 300 daily passengers Source: China Airline Traffic Statistics 2008 (Markets with at least one weekly frequency) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 33. Passengers per Departure – USA Narrowbodies (121-210 seats) 1000 Daily 900 Frequencies Annual Flights (x 1000) 800 700 >2 600 500 400 <=2 300 200 100 0 46-60 61-75 76-90 91-105 106-120 121-135 > 135 Passengers per Departure Around 610,000 flights (~18%) of total J121-210 with loads from 61 to 105 pax per departure and low daily frequencies (up to 2) Source: US DOT (Nov/08-Oct/09) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 34. The CASM Paradigm 2,095 1,434 1,305 454 733 177 (504) (1,051) (1,757) Environment: US LCC Avg Sector: 800 sm Avg Fare: 100 USD Fuel Price: 2 USD/gal 61‐75 76‐90 90‐105 The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 35. The CASM Paradigm – the ultimate rule CONTRIBUTION TO PROFIT PER FLIGHT Contribution to Profit per Flight Fare Level 100‐SEATER NB Pax/Flight < 120 Pax/Flight > 120 Passenger Demand per Flight “A place for everything and everything in its place” The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 36. E-Jets Deployment 29% 21% 8% 5% 32% 25% 14% 7% 6% 33% 57% 5% 49% 40% 62% 20% Europe 12% Europe 7% 11% North North C h in a China America America 20% 33% 31% 39% Middle East Middle East 8% 49% 52% 50% Latin Latin Africa Africa Asia Pacific Asia P acific America America World 50% 20% 9% 21% Right-sizing New Markets Replacement Natural Source: OAG (1Q10) of old Jets Growth The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 37. E-Jets: Complementing Narrowbodies Madrid – Paris (ORY) Edmouton–Vancouver San Salvador - Guatemala Amsterdam – Berlin Dec/08 Dec/09 Dec/08 Dec/09 Sep/08 Sep/09 Jan/09 Jan/10 SEATS 744 606 1032 930 494 342 754 611 06:00 E190 E190 07:00 A320 A320 A320 08:00 B738 B738 A320 F70 B737 09:00 E190 E190 10:00 B737 11:00 A320 A320 12:00 13:00 B738 E195 E190 14:00 E190 A320 A320 15:00 A321 B737 16:00 A319 A319 17:00 B737 E190 18:00 B738 B738 A320 E190 B737 CRJ700 E190 19:00 20:00 B737 B737 21:00 B738 E195 A319 E190 22:00 23:00 Source: OAG (2010) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 38. E-Jets Complementing Narrowbodies The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 39. E-Jets: Replacing Narrowbodies Frankfurt - Katowice Amsterdam - Helsinki Los Angeles - Vancouver Brisbane - Oakhampton Sep/08 Sep/09 Dec/08 Dec/09 May/07 May/09 Sep/08 Sep/09 SEATS 714 420 513 392 480 465 690 520 06:00 B737 E170 B737 E190 07:00 E190 A319 E190 08:00 09:00 B737 E190 10:00 B737 E190 11:00 A319 E190 12:00 B737 E170 13:00 B737 E190 14:00 B737 E170 B737 E190 A319 E190 15:00 16:00 B737 E170 B737 E190 17:00 18:00 B737 E170 A319 E190 19:00 B737 E190 20:00 B737 E190 21:00 22:00 B737 E170 23:00 Source: OAG (2009) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 40. E-Jets Helping Explore New Markets Low Cost Carriers with Two Fleet Types Seats 150+ A320 B737-700 A320 A320 100 E190 E190 E190 E190 North America Asia Pacific Europe Middle East The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 41. E-Jets Helping Reduce Costs and Fuel Burn The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 42. E-Jets: Direct Replacement Benefits Fuel Burn Source: www.eforefficiency.com Note: European economic conditions, fuel at 0.50 EUR/liter The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 43. Replacement Opportunities - World (Jets 61-120 seats) 350 B737-500 Number of Aircraft 300 250 B737-200 Bae 146 200 150 F100 DC-9 TU-134 100 B717-200 YAK-42 50 F70 F28 0 5 15 25 35 Average Age (years) Nearly 1,000 aircraft with more than 15 years old Source: OAG (Dec/09 ; Passenger, Active in Service, Scheduled Services) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 44. E-Jets Family Order Book Firm Firm Options Deliveries Orders Backlog EMBRAER 170 187 48 170 17 EMBRAER 175 140 178 125 15 EMBRAER 190 448 426 263 185 EMBRAER 195 87 70 47 40 Total 862 722 605 257 (December 31th 2009) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 45. E-Jets Worldwide Distribution Customers Firm Orders Diversified customer-base across five continents Increased presence in emerging markets with established carriers Source: Embraer (Dec/09) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 46. E-Jets Backlog Evolution Backlog Share per Region (# of Aircraft): 322 Acft 257 Acft 1% 8% 32% Emerging Countries 20% 16% RoW 22% Europe 71% North America 31% 2005 Dec/2009 North America + Europe share decreased from 91% to 53% Source: Embraer (Dec/09) Emerging Countries include Brazil, Russia, India, China and Eastern Europe. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 47. E-Jets Schedule Reliability & Completion Rate Schedule Reliability: 99.2% ; Completion Rate: 99.9% 100,00 99.9% 99,88 99,75 99,50 99.2% 99,22 99,25 SR/CR (%) 99,00 98,75 98,50 98,25 98,00 MAY MAY MAY JUL JUL JUL FEB SEP NOV FEB SEP NOV FEB SEP NOV JAN MAR APR JUN DEC JAN MAR APR JUN DEC JAN MAR APR JUN DEC AUG AUG AUG OCT OCT OCT 2007 2008 2009 SR - MONTH SR - L12M CR - MONTH CR - L12M The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 48. Market Share - World (Jets 61-120 seats) Embraer: 170/175/190/195 Sukhoi: Superjet 100 Bombardier: CRJ700/900/1000; CS110 Comac: ARJ-21 Airbus: A318 Antonov: An-148 Boeing: B737-600 Mitsubishi: MRJ90 Considering accumulated Net Orders up to Dec/09. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 49. E-Jets vs. New Entrants Competitive Scenario 120 E195 CS100 110 100 E190 110 Seats Seat Capacity (32'' pitch) SSJ100/95 ARJ21 100 Seats 90 MRJ90 E175 80 70-90 Seats E170 70 MRJ70 60 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 Range (nm) The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 50. Competition: CS100 vs. E195 4,500 kg heavier than E195 Higher DOC than E195 Risk associated with new engine technology (GTF) Implications for CS100 perceived as heavy and inneficient Momentum after Republic CS300 vs. A319/737-700 CS 150-seater derivative Competition vs. A320/737-800 The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 51. Competition: E175 vs. MRJ90 Major design review in 2009: back to metallic wing, increased cross-section. 3,500 kg heavier than E175 Equivalent DOC vs. E175 but at higher risks: Challenging integration and development Risk associated with new engine technology (GTF) TSA deal no bid ; price agressiveness sustainable?? The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 52. Expected Technologies for Commercial Aviation 2015/2016 Wingtip Advanced structures Avionics Geared and Adv. Electric taxi devices Composites / Metallic functionalities Turbofan engines 2017/2019 APU Fuel Cell Carbon composites 2nd generation Health monitoring systems nanotubes (2nd gen.) GTF/ATF (On condition maintenance) 2020/2025 Open Rotor / New Configs / Advanced Aerodynamics Single pilot capability The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 53. New Technologies and Next Generation Industry focus on new technologies maturity 2015/2016 2017/2019 2020/2025 Current Technology Potential COC vs.  4% 7% The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 54. Competitive Product Positioning along time Competitive positioning code: higher average lower New entrants introduction Next Gen NB New entrants mature new entrant competition from competitiveness new maturation next-gen NB entrant 2010 2015 2020 New entrants Next Gen NB introduction New entrants competitiveness in case of new entrant competition from mature new entrant next-gen NB NB re-engining maturation 2010 2015 2020 The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 55. Embraer Market Forecast (2010-2019) Projected Deliveries - Jets Market Segment 2010 – 2019 (Seats) Deliveries 30-60 60 61-90 1015 91-120 1550 30-120 2625 Around 2600 jet deliveries (US$ 80bi) in the next 10 years. The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 56. Embraer Market Forecast (2010-2019) 2,625 jet deliveries (30-120 seats) Russia / CIS Europe North 155 America 580 6% 840 22% 32% China Middle 340 Africa East 13% 80 105 3% 4% Asia Latin Pacific America 315 210 8% 12% The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
  • 57. 620+ E-Jets. 56 Airlines. 39 Countries