2. Forward Looking Statement
This presentation includes forward-looking statements or statements about events
or circumstances which have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking
statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events
and financial trends affecting our business and our future financial performance.
These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and
assumptions, including, among other things: general economic, political and
business conditions, both in Brazil and in our market.
The words “believes,” “may,” “will,” “estimates,” “continues,” “anticipates,”
“intends,” “expects” and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking
statements. We undertake no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-
looking statements because of new information, future events or other factors. In
light of these risks and uncertainties, the forward-looking events and
circumstances discussed in this presentation might not occur. Our actual results
could differ substantially from those anticipated in our forward-looking statements.
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
3. Contents
Air Transport Industry Review
ERJ 145 Family
E-Jets Family
Competitive Scenario
Product Development
Market Outlook 2010-2019
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
4. Economic Scenario
World Real GDP Evolution (USD 2005)
60
55
Real GDP (US$ trillions)
50
45
40
35
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F
World will return to pre-crisis level in 2010 (due to emerging countries)
USA and Europe will recover in 2011-12
Source: The Economist (Feb/10)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
5. Air Transport Demand - IATA
World – International RPK Growth Rate (% yoy)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
5.9% 7.4% 1.6 % -3.5%
-14
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
Jan-06
Mar-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Mar-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Sep-06
Nov-06
Sep-07
Nov-07
Sep-08
Nov-08
Sep-09
Nov-09
IATA: “The industry starts 2010 with some enormous challenges.
The worst is behind us, but it is not time to celebrate.”
Source: IATA (Jan/10)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
6. Demand Forecast – IATA and ICAO
RPK Growth Rate (% yoy)
IATA ICAO
7,4
5,8 4,5 6,2 6,1
5,0 5,5
3,3
1,3
-3,1
-4,1
2006
2007
2008
2009 F
2010 F
2011 F
2012 F
2013 F
2009: Reduced demand due to economic crisis
2010-2013: Projected demand recovery
Source: IATA and ICAO (Dec/09)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
7. Air Transport Industry Review – a summary
Gradual recovery of market demand
Weak revenue environment, signs of improvement (IATA
halved its loss forecast for 2010 to US$2.8bi)
Continuous efficiency improvement and cost reductions
Limited aircraft financing resources
More consolidations & mergers and fewer start-ups
Long term growth in air transport demand despite current
crisis
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
8. Air Transport Demand – US Mainline vs. Regionals
US Domestic
600
500
RPM (Billion)
400 Mainline: -0,2% cagr FAA Aviation Forecast
300 2009-
RPM cagr
2030F
200
Mainline
+2,9%
Regional: +13,3% cagr Carriers
100
Regional
+4,2%
Carriers
0
F
F
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
E
10
11
09
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
FAA Forecast (Mar2010): higher growth rates for Regionals
increased use of 70-90 regional jet aircraft
Source: FAA
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
9. 1,100 ERJ145 Platforms Already Delivered
Dec 1996
Dec 1996
First Delivery
First Delivery
Dec 1998
Dec 1998
Dec 1999
Dec 1999
Aug 2000
Aug 2000
September, 2007
Mar 2001
Mar 2001 Sep 2001
Sep 2001 May 2002
May 2002 May 2003
May 2003 May 2004
May 2004 Feb 2005
Feb 2005
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
10. Pre-Owned ERJ Transfers
35
30
Number of ERJs (units)
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
61 pre-owned ERJ transfers in the last two years (2008-09)
Source: Embraer (Mar/09)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
11. Pre-Owned ERJ Transactions
Passaredo - Brazil
BMI – United Kingdom Trans States - US
FinnComm - Finland Aeromexico Connect - Mexico
Dniproavia - Ukraine
Diexim Expresso - Angola
Satena - Colombia
Athens Airways - Greece City Airline - Sweden Republic - US
Nearly 170 pre-owned ERJ transactions since 2000
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
12. 1st. E195 Delivery to Air Dolomiti (Italy)
(January 27, 2009)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
13. 1st. E170 Delivery to Fuji Dream Airlines (Japan)
(February 20, 2009)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
14. 1st. E190 Delivery to Niki (Austria)
(May 14, 2009)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
15. 1st. E195 Delivery to Augsburg Airways (Germany)
(June 9, 2009)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
16. 1st. E195 Delivery to Windrose (Ukraine)
(June 22, 2009)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
17. 1st. E175 Delivery to Trip (Brazil)
(June 24, 2009)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
18. 1st. E190 Delivery to LAM (Mozambique)
(July 31, 2009)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
19. 1st. E170 Delivery to BA Cityflyer (United Kingdom)
(September 3, 2009)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
20. 600 th. E-Jet
delivered to LOT Polish Airlines
September 15th., 2009 !!!
21. 1st. E195 Delivery to Lufthansa Cityline (Germany)
(September 24, 2009)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
22. New E-Jet Customer – Air Astana (Kazakhstan)
(Nov/09 ; 2 E190 Jetscape)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
23. New E-Jet Customer – Oman Air (Oman)
(Nov/09 ; 5 E175)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
24. New E-Jet Customer – Austral (Argentina)
(20 E190)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
25. 1st. E170 Delivery to Gulf Air (Barhain)
(March 4, 2010)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
26. E190 at London City Airport
(2010)
Carriers cleared to use Embraer 190 at London City
“BA CityFlyer, Baboo and Lufthansa Cityline will be the
first to operate the EMBRAER 190 out of LCY. ”
Baboo debuts Embraer 190 at London City
“We are especially proud to be the first to
operate this aircraft, the most comfortable
and popular regional jet, into this most user-
friendly airport” – Jacques Bankir, CEO of Baboo
BA CityFlyer starts introducing Embraer 190s
“We are now on the last leg of our fleet
replacement programme and our passengers
will benefit from the extra space these new,
greener aircraft offer.”
– Peter Simpson, Managing Director of BA Cityflyer
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
27. Grand Slam: E-Jets at Europe´s top airlines
Orders Backlog
10 E170 3
10 E190
Orders Backlog
17 E190 7
Orders Backlog
17 E190 16
15 E195
Orders Backlog
6 E170 6
5 E190
Source: Embraer (Dec/09)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
29. Current Environment Requires Fleet Optimization
Decreasing
Demand & Yields
Fleet efficiency
Capacity Cuts is a critical issue
Fuel &
to airlines
Environment
Pressure
Right-sized aircraft help airlines to improve
fuel burn (environment) and results
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
30. Market Density Profile - USA
500
51-150
PDEW
Number of Markets
400 55%
151-300
300 22% >300
23%
200
100
0
51 - 75 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 500 1000 >1000
Passenger per Day Each Way (PDEW)
USA domestic mainly low-mid density markets
77% up to 300 PDEW
Source: US DOT (3Q09)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
31. Market Density Profile – Latin America
300
26-100
250 PDEW
Number of Markets
54% 101-300
200 28%
>300
150
18%
100
50
0
26-50 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 >800
Passenger per Day Each Way (PDEW)
Intra Latin America mainly low-mid density markets
82% up to 300 PDEW
Source: SABRE (2009)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
32. Market Density Profile – China
250
26-100
46% 101-300
200
30%
Number of Markets
150
>300
24%
100
50
0
26-50 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 >1000
Daily Passengers
China mainly low-mid density markets
76% up to 300 daily passengers
Source: China Airline Traffic Statistics 2008 (Markets with at least one weekly frequency)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
33. Passengers per Departure – USA
Narrowbodies (121-210 seats)
1000
Daily
900
Frequencies
Annual Flights (x 1000)
800
700 >2
600
500
400 <=2
300
200
100
0
46-60 61-75 76-90 91-105 106-120 121-135 > 135
Passengers per Departure
Around 610,000 flights (~18%) of total J121-210 with loads
from 61 to 105 pax per departure and low daily frequencies (up to 2)
Source: US DOT (Nov/08-Oct/09)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
34. The CASM Paradigm
2,095
1,434
1,305
454 733
177
(504)
(1,051)
(1,757) Environment: US LCC
Avg Sector: 800 sm
Avg Fare: 100 USD
Fuel Price: 2 USD/gal
61‐75 76‐90 90‐105
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
35. The CASM Paradigm – the ultimate rule
CONTRIBUTION TO PROFIT PER FLIGHT
Contribution to Profit per Flight Fare Level
100‐SEATER NB
Pax/Flight < 120 Pax/Flight > 120
Passenger Demand per Flight
“A place for everything and everything in its place”
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
36. E-Jets Deployment
29%
21%
8% 5% 32%
25%
14%
7%
6% 33%
57% 5% 49%
40%
62%
20% Europe 12%
Europe 7%
11%
North
North C h in a
China
America
America 20%
33%
31% 39%
Middle East
Middle East
8%
49%
52% 50%
Latin
Latin Africa
Africa Asia Pacific
Asia P acific
America
America
World 50% 20% 9% 21%
Right-sizing New Markets Replacement Natural
Source: OAG (1Q10) of old Jets Growth
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
37. E-Jets: Complementing Narrowbodies
Madrid – Paris (ORY) Edmouton–Vancouver San Salvador - Guatemala Amsterdam – Berlin
Dec/08 Dec/09 Dec/08 Dec/09 Sep/08 Sep/09 Jan/09 Jan/10
SEATS 744 606 1032 930 494 342 754 611
06:00 E190 E190
07:00
A320 A320 A320
08:00 B738 B738 A320 F70 B737
09:00
E190 E190
10:00 B737
11:00 A320 A320
12:00
13:00 B738 E195 E190
14:00 E190
A320 A320
15:00 A321 B737
16:00
A319 A319
17:00 B737
E190
18:00 B738 B738 A320 E190 B737
CRJ700 E190
19:00
20:00 B737 B737
21:00 B738 E195 A319 E190
22:00
23:00
Source: OAG (2010)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
38. E-Jets Complementing Narrowbodies
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
39. E-Jets: Replacing Narrowbodies
Frankfurt - Katowice Amsterdam - Helsinki Los Angeles - Vancouver Brisbane - Oakhampton
Sep/08 Sep/09 Dec/08 Dec/09 May/07 May/09 Sep/08 Sep/09
SEATS 714 420 513 392 480 465 690 520
06:00 B737 E170 B737 E190
07:00 E190 A319 E190
08:00
09:00 B737 E190
10:00 B737 E190
11:00 A319 E190
12:00 B737 E170
13:00 B737 E190
14:00 B737 E170 B737 E190 A319 E190
15:00
16:00 B737 E170 B737 E190
17:00
18:00 B737 E170 A319 E190
19:00 B737 E190
20:00 B737 E190
21:00
22:00 B737 E170
23:00
Source: OAG (2009)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
40. E-Jets Helping Explore New Markets
Low Cost Carriers with Two Fleet Types
Seats
150+
A320 B737-700 A320 A320
100
E190 E190 E190 E190
North America Asia Pacific Europe Middle East
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
41. E-Jets Helping Reduce Costs and Fuel Burn
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
42. E-Jets: Direct Replacement Benefits
Fuel Burn
Source: www.eforefficiency.com
Note: European economic conditions, fuel at 0.50 EUR/liter
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
43. Replacement Opportunities - World
(Jets 61-120 seats)
350
B737-500
Number of Aircraft 300
250 B737-200
Bae 146
200
150 F100
DC-9
TU-134
100
B717-200 YAK-42
50
F70 F28
0
5 15 25 35
Average Age (years)
Nearly 1,000 aircraft with more than 15 years old
Source: OAG (Dec/09 ; Passenger, Active in Service, Scheduled Services)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
44. E-Jets Family Order Book
Firm Firm
Options Deliveries
Orders Backlog
EMBRAER 170 187 48 170 17
EMBRAER 175 140 178 125 15
EMBRAER 190 448 426 263 185
EMBRAER 195 87 70 47 40
Total 862 722 605 257
(December 31th 2009)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
45. E-Jets Worldwide Distribution
Customers Firm Orders
Diversified customer-base across five continents
Increased presence in emerging markets with established carriers
Source: Embraer (Dec/09)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
46. E-Jets Backlog Evolution
Backlog Share per Region (# of Aircraft):
322 Acft 257 Acft
1%
8%
32% Emerging Countries
20%
16% RoW
22% Europe
71%
North America
31%
2005 Dec/2009
North America + Europe share decreased from 91% to 53%
Source: Embraer (Dec/09) Emerging Countries include Brazil, Russia, India, China and Eastern Europe.
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
47. E-Jets Schedule Reliability & Completion Rate
Schedule Reliability: 99.2% ; Completion Rate: 99.9%
100,00
99.9%
99,88
99,75
99,50
99.2%
99,22
99,25
SR/CR (%)
99,00
98,75
98,50
98,25
98,00
MAY
MAY
MAY
JUL
JUL
JUL
FEB
SEP
NOV
FEB
SEP
NOV
FEB
SEP
NOV
JAN
MAR
APR
JUN
DEC
JAN
MAR
APR
JUN
DEC
JAN
MAR
APR
JUN
DEC
AUG
AUG
AUG
OCT
OCT
OCT
2007 2008 2009
SR - MONTH SR - L12M CR - MONTH CR - L12M
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
48. Market Share - World (Jets 61-120 seats)
Embraer: 170/175/190/195 Sukhoi: Superjet 100
Bombardier: CRJ700/900/1000; CS110 Comac: ARJ-21
Airbus: A318 Antonov: An-148
Boeing: B737-600 Mitsubishi: MRJ90
Considering accumulated Net Orders up to Dec/09.
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
49. E-Jets vs. New Entrants
Competitive Scenario
120
E195 CS100
110
100 E190 110 Seats
Seat Capacity (32'' pitch)
SSJ100/95
ARJ21 100 Seats
90
MRJ90
E175
80
70-90 Seats
E170
70
MRJ70
60
1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200
Range (nm)
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
50. Competition: CS100 vs. E195
4,500 kg heavier than E195
Higher DOC than E195
Risk associated with new engine technology (GTF)
Implications for CS100 perceived as heavy and
inneficient
Momentum after Republic CS300 vs. A319/737-700
CS 150-seater derivative Competition vs. A320/737-800
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
51. Competition: E175 vs. MRJ90
Major design review in 2009: back to metallic wing, increased
cross-section.
3,500 kg heavier than E175
Equivalent DOC vs. E175 but at higher risks:
Challenging integration and development
Risk associated with new engine technology (GTF)
TSA deal no bid ; price agressiveness sustainable??
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
52. Expected Technologies for Commercial Aviation
2015/2016
Wingtip Advanced structures Avionics Geared and Adv.
Electric taxi
devices Composites / Metallic functionalities Turbofan engines
2017/2019
APU Fuel Cell Carbon composites 2nd generation Health monitoring systems
nanotubes (2nd gen.) GTF/ATF (On condition maintenance)
2020/2025
Open Rotor / New Configs / Advanced Aerodynamics Single pilot capability
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
53. New Technologies and Next Generation
Industry focus on new
technologies maturity
2015/2016 2017/2019 2020/2025
Current Technology
Potential COC vs.
4%
7%
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
54. Competitive Product Positioning along time
Competitive positioning code: higher average lower
New entrants
introduction Next Gen NB
New entrants mature
new entrant competition from
competitiveness new
maturation next-gen NB
entrant
2010 2015 2020
New entrants
Next Gen NB
introduction
New entrants
competitiveness
in case of new entrant competition from
mature new entrant next-gen NB
NB re-engining maturation
2010 2015 2020
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
55. Embraer Market Forecast (2010-2019)
Projected Deliveries - Jets
Market Segment 2010 – 2019
(Seats) Deliveries
30-60 60
61-90 1015
91-120 1550
30-120 2625
Around 2600 jet deliveries (US$ 80bi) in the next 10 years.
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent
56. Embraer Market Forecast (2010-2019)
2,625 jet deliveries (30-120 seats)
Russia /
CIS
Europe
North 155
America 580 6%
840 22%
32% China
Middle
340
Africa East 13%
80 105
3% 4% Asia
Latin
Pacific
America
315 210
8%
12%
The information contained herein is property of Embraer and shall not be copied or used without Embraer´s written consent