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ENERGY SECURITY AND SOUTH PERUVIAN
GAS PIPELINE PROJECTS
October 2013
Why we are here today

ProInversión, the promotion arm of Peru Government, seeks investors to
help construct and operate new natural gas and gas liquids pipeline
infrastructure as well as new power generation facilities in Peru. Four
concessions are envisaged:
•
•
•

Two separate concessions of 500MW (+ or – 20%) each of diesel-fired
generation in the southern coastal region (the Energy Node), to be
connected to the natural gas pipeline once gas is available
Gasoducto Sur Peruano (GSP), a natural gas pipeline from the existing
TGP system to these power generation facilities in the south as well as
to other consumers such as potential petrochemicals
The “Energy Security Project” – additional natural gas and gas liquids
pipeline capacity from the Camisea region to Chiquintirca to improve
reliability of the overall system

Today we will discuss each of these projects, their economic, strategic
rationale and key technical, financial, and contractual considerations
2
1. Project background
2. Project description
3. Technical considerations
4. Contract considerations
5. Q&A
Project Background:
Strong growth in Peruvian energy
production
Domestic production of hydrocarbons has increased roughly 16% p.a. since 2006 while
the consumption of natural gas has increased 37% p.a.
Peru Energy Historical Resource Production
Crude

Natural Gas

300
CAGR (06-12): 16%

250

• Since 2008 the average GDP growth
has roughly been 6.5% p.a.

KBOE

200

• As of 2012, the gas demand is broken
out in the following way:
• Peru LNG (56%)
• Power (27%)
• Industrial (10%)
• GNV (5%)
• Residential (1%)

150
100
50

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

-

Source: MINEM

4
Project Background:
Power generation in Peru is divided
into three zones
Hydroelectric

Northern
Zone

Solar

Total

Installed Capacity (MW):

433

356

788

Effective Capacity (MW):
Annual Production
(GWh):

454

327

781

2,462

820

3,282

395

62

457

Peak Demand (MW) :

Hydroelectric

Central
Zone

Thermal

Thermal

Solar

Total

Installed Capacity (MW):

2,384

3,409

5,793

Effective Capacity (MW):
Annual Production
(GWh):

2,258

3,155

5,413

15,734

14,884

30,618

2,102

2,253

4,355

Peak Demand (MW) :

Hydroelectric

Thermal

Solar

Total

Installed Capacity (MW):

Southern
Zone

428

527

84

1,039

Effective Capacity (MW):
Annual Production
(GWh):

428

415

80

923

2,652

709

60

3,421

345

133

Peak Demand (MW) :

Hydroelectric

Thermal

479
Solar

Total

Installed Capacity (MW):

Peru Total

3,244

4,292

84

7,620

Effective Capacity (MW):
Annual Production
(GWh):

3,140

3,897

80

7,117

20,849

16,413

60

37,321

2,843

2,448

Peak Demand (MW) :

5,291

Source: COES Operational Statistics 2012

5
Project Background:
The central region generates the
majority of Peru’s power
Growth in power generation in Peru since 2006 has averaged roughly 9% p.a.
Installed Generation Capacity and Power Generation by Region in Peru
North

Central

South

Total - Effective Capacity (MW)

8,000

40,000

7,000

CAGR (‘06-’12): 9.1%

30,000

6,000

25,000

5,000

20,000

4,000

15,000

3,000

10,000

2,000

5,000

1,000

Effective Capacity (MW)

Power Generation (GWh)

35,000

-

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Source: COES Operational Statistics 2012

6
Project Background:
The power sector is driving growth
in natural gas consumption
Natural gas demand is expected to grow significantly, led by the power sector
Peru Natural Gas Demand Forecast (2013 – 2033)
LNG
Other Users - North

2,500

Possible Future LNG
Electricity - South

Electricity - North
Other Users - South

NGV - North

CAGR (’20-’33): 2.5%
2,000

MMCFD

CAGR (’12-’20): 5.1%
1,500

1,000

500

0
2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

2033

Source: Wood Mackenzie’s analysis, COES

7
Project Background:
Highly prospective plays expected to
meet future growth
There are a number of highly prospective plays in Peru that will provide the resources
to meet continued demand growth in natural gas
First exploratory well is
expected to be drilled in
block 76 in 2015,
Prospective reserves of
around 2-3 tcf are expected

Reserves
Natural Gas
(TCF)
Natural Gas Liquids
(MMbbl)

Block
Proved (1P)
2P1
Proved (1P)
2P1

56
3.0
4.0
216.8
293.4

57
0.6
2.5
30.8
132.3

58
0.0
2.3
0.0
135.9

88
10.3
11.9
515.1
614.7

Total
14
21
763
1,176

Source: COES Operational Statistics 2012; Note: 2P is inclusive of 1P

8
Project Background:
Reserves outlook vs. demand
outlook
Peru has more than enough reserves to meet the expected domestic demand
for the next 30+ years
Demand Outlook (2013-2050) - tcf

22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

Demand

19

20
2

21

6
13

9

4

LNG

Electricity Other Electricity Other
demand - users - demand - users North
North
South
South

Reserves Outlook (2013-2050) - tcf

22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

21

Probable reserves
Proved reserves

17
14

12
It is expected that additional
reserves will be found and
developed as demand expands
and infrastructure bottlenecks
are removed

Block 56

Block 57

Block 58

Block 88

9
Project Background:
Infrastructure investment needed to
meet growing gas production
The TGP expansion and the construction of Gasoducto Sur Peruano will drive further
development of the Camisea basin
Peru Natural Gas production forecast
It is expected that additional
reserves will be developed to
reverse the expected fall in
production

2500

mmcfd

2000
Production is based on 1P
reserves

1500

1000

500

PLNG

TGP Gas

TGP Gas - Expansion

GSP - Aprox. Capacity

2032

2030

2028

2026

2024

2022

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

0

Production

Source: MINEM, Wood Mackenzie 2013, Upstream Services; Includes blocks: 56, 57, 58, 88 (Block 76 could be incorporated in the future)

10
Project Background:
Added take-away capacity also
needed in NGLs
Like natural gas, current natural gas liquids production is infrastructure limited
NGL Production and Takeaway Capacity
200

It is expected that additional
reserves will be developed to
reverse the expected fall in
production

180
160
140

Production is based on 1P
reserves

Kb/d

120
100
80
60
40
20

TGP - NGL

TGP - NGL - Expansion

2032

2030

2028

2026

2024

2022

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

0

Production

Source: Wood Mackenzie 2013, Upstream Services; Includes blocks: 56, 57, 58, 88 (Block 76 could be incorporated in the future)

11
1. Project background
2. Project description
3. Technical considerations
4. Contract considerations
5. Q&A
Project Description:
Energy infrastructure projects
proposed

Energy Security and Gasoducto Sur Peruano Projects
BRASIL
MALVINAS

LIMA
(Lurín)
Pampa
Melchorita
PISCO

Km 73

Km
127

Loop
TGP

HUANCAVELICA

ICA

QUILLABAMBA

CHIQUINTIRC
A

HUMAY

ANT
A

APURIMAC
ABANCAY

AYACUCHO

MADRE DE
DIOS

ZONA DE
SEGURIDAD
ENERGÉTICA

CUSCO

CUSCO
ESPINAR

MARCONA

PUNO

JULIACA

AREQUIPA

ACTUALES
TGP (SISTEMA ACTUAL + LOOP COSTA)
Gasoducto / Poliducto
CONTUGAS (SISTEMA ACTUAL)
PERU LNG (GASODUCTO)

PUNO

LAGO
TITICACA

AREQUIPA

MOQUEGUA

PROYECTADOS
GASODUCTO DE SEGURIDAD ENERGÉTICA
POLIDUCTO DE SEGURIDAD ENERGÉTICA
GASODUCTO SUR PERUANO

ZONA DE UBICACIÓN DEL
POLO PETROQUÍMICO Y
DEL NODO ENERGÉTICO

TACNA

BOLIVIA

CHILE

13
Project Background:
Strategic rationale

1

Energy security

Historical failures of the TGP system has had a large financial
impact on the country’s economics (~$400,000/day)
Sense of vulnerability as ~50% of the power produced in Lima
depends on a single supply line

2

Resolve
Infrastructure
constraints

500 MMcf/d of gas is being re-injected due to limitations in
midstream gas processing and downstream markets

3

Address
Socio/Economic
Issues

Trigger economic development in Southern Peru and address
demographic concentration

4

Remedy Regional
Power Generation
Disparities

~60% of power consumed in the south is generated in the north
while demand for peak power in the south is growing

14
Project Description:
Energy Node & Gasoducto Sur Peruano
c
The GSP sections from the Point of
Connection (PC) to Mollendo/Ilo which
includes:
Section a1: Gas pipeline from the PC
to the province of Anta
Section a2: Gas pipeline from the
province of Anta to Mollendo/Ilo
Section b: Gas and liquids pipeline from
the separation plant at Malvinas to the
PC
Section c: Gas and liquids pipeline from
the PC to the compression plant at
Chiquintirca (km 211)

Chiquintirca

b

MALVINAS

PC

QUILLABAMBA
ANTA

a1

Existing
Liquids Pipeline
Gas Pipeline

URCOS

APURÍMAC
AREQUIPA

PUNO

a2
MOLLENDO

ILO

TACNA

15
1. Project background
2. Project description
3. Technical considerations
4. Contract considerations
5. Q&A
Technical Considerations:
Existing TGP pipeline (NG and NGL)
has limited capacity
Existing Transmission System – Natural Gas
TgP NG Maximum Operating Capacity with current configuration : 1230 MMSCFD

Km 211:
Chiquintirca
Compression Station

32”

Arrival Pressure: 70
barg

Km 127:
Kepashiato Intermediate
Compression Station in
construction
to increase capacity to
1,500 MMCFD

32”

Km 0: Malvinas Plant
Capacity 2000 MMCFD
Discharge Pressure:
147 barg

Existing Transmission System –Natural Gas Liquids
TgP NGL Maximum Operating Capacity with current configuration: 110 MBPD

Km 210:
Chiquintirca PS3

Inlet Pressure: 7 barg

14”

Km 108:
PS2 Suction Pressure :
16 barg
Discharge Pressure :
varies with flow rate

14”

Km 0:
PS1

Discharge Pressure:
24 barg

17
Technical Considerations:
The pipelines have a number of
technical complexities
1

Protected Areas

The environmental impact is the most onerous During
construction phase

2

Archaeological
Issues

Numerous archaeological sites in Peru - possibility finding
archaeological artefacts during construction

3

Seismic Areas

Pipeline stability protection solutions should be given to
protect the pipeline from movements caused by difficult
terrains that need to be traversed

4

Terrain
Difficulties

Terrain traverses from low to high altitude locations with
dramatic slopes that need to be considered; there will be a
requirement for slope protection

Right of Way
(RoW) Issues

RoW located in jungle, mountain, costal desert where
isolated tribes need to be considered for safety and
security issues. There will be logistical requirements to
avoid issues because of proximity to communities

5

18
Technical Considerations:
Energy Security
Recommendation Schematic
Future Transmission System – Natural Gas
MMCFD
TgP NG expected Maximum Operating Capacity with current configuration

1230

Energy Security Maximum Operating Capacity (0-73km/73-211km):
Existing
New
Km 127:

2000/1500

Km 211:
Chinquintirca
Compression Station
Arrival Pressure:
70 barg

32”
36”

Kepashiato Intermediate
Compression Station
to increase capacity to
1,500 MMCFD

32”

36”

32”

Km 73:
Derivation Point

36”

Km 0: Malvinas Plant
Capacity 2000 MMCFD
Discharge Pressure:
147 barg

Future Transmission System –Natural Gas Liquids
KBD

TgP NGL Maximum Operating Capacity (with DRA):
Energy Security Maximum Operating Capacity/Design of new (without DRA) :
Existing with DRA
New

14”

Km 210:
Chinquintirca PS3

Km 108:
PS2

24”

Inlet Pressure: 7 barg

130
130

14”

Km TBD:
PS2 (New)

Km 0:
PS1

24”

Km 0:
PS1 (New)

Note: 1) Design capacity is expected to be 10% above operating capacity

19
Technical Considerations:
Energy Security
Recommended Installations
Energy Security Loop Overview – Recommended Option

Product

Recommendation

Natural Gas

•
•
•

36” NG Loop from Las Malvinas Separation Plant to Chinquintirca
4 Scrapper Facilities
8 section valves

Natural Gas
Liquids

•
•
•
•

24” NGL Loop from Las Malvinas Separation Plant to Chinquintirca
4 Scrapper Facilities
10 section valves
2 New pumping stations at Las Malvinas Plant close by to Derivation Point

Full System

•

2 new control rooms

20
Technical Considerations:
Energy Security
CAPEX Estimate
Energy Security Loop CAPEX Estimate
Estimated Total CAPEX : $981,000,000

Cost Breakout
Basic Engineering / Feed
Surveys
Detailed Engineering and Project Management
Materials - Line Pipe, Major Valves, etc.

Cost ($)
Excluded
8,000,000
42,000,000
370,000,000

Compression and Equipment

17,000,000

Controls : Field Instruments, Sub-Systems, Bulks, SCADA and RTU

19,000,000

Buildings

41,000,000

Construction Works

484,000,000

21
Technical Considerations:
Gasoducto Sur Peruano
Recommendation Schematic
Gasoducto Sur Peruano System
Km 211:
Chinquintirca
Compression Station
Arrival Pressure:
70 barg

32”
36”

Km 127:
Kepashiato Intermediate
Compression Station
to increase capacity to
1,500 MMCFD

Quillabamba:
50 MMscfd

32”
14”
URCOS

32”
Mollendo:
275 MMCFD

24”

32”
36”

Km 73:
Derivation Point

32”
36”

GSP Flow Rates

Km 0: Malvinas Plant
Capacity 2000 MMCFD
Discharge Pressure:
147 barg

MMCFD:

Inlet of system1
Quillabamba (Power)
Mollendo (Petrochemicals)
Mollendo (Power)
Ilo (Petrochemicals)
Ilo (Power)

: 500
: 50
: 50
: 175
: 50
: 175

Km762

24”
Ilo:
175 MMCFD

TgP existing NG Pipeline
NG new Security Pipeline
Gasoducto Sur Peruano

Note: 1) Design capacity is expected to be 10% above operating capacity

22
Technical Considerations:
Gasoducto Sur Peruano
Recommended Installations
Gasoducto Sur Peruano Overview – Recommended Option

Product

Natural Gas

Recommendation

•
•
•
•
•

32” from Point of Derivation from TGP/Energy Security to Mollendo Branch (Km762)
24” from Km 762 to the end of the pipeline at Ilo
9 Scrapper Facilities
27 section valves (blocking and bleeding stations)
8 branches: Quilibamba, Anta, Apurimac, Espinar, Juliaca /Puno, Arequipa, Mollendo,
Moquegua, Tacna

23
Technical Considerations:
Gasoducto Sur Peruano
CAPEX Estimate
Gasoducto Sur Peruano CAPEX Estimate
Estimated Total CAPEX : $2,463,000,000

Cost Breakout
Basic Engineering / Feed
Surveys

Cost ($)
Excluded
20,000,000

Detailed Engineering and Project Management

112,000,000

Materials - Line Pipe, Major Valves, etc.

882,000,000

Compression and Equipment

Not required

Controls : Field Instruments, Sub-Systems, Bulks, SCADA and RTU

62,000,000

Buildings

16,000,000

Construction Works

1,371,000,000

24
1. Project background
2. Project description
3. Technical considerations
4. Contract considerations
5. Q&A
Key Contractual
Considerations

Issue

Discussion
•
•

•

Phase 2 will run from the Derivation Point to Chiquintirca.
• Pipelines Dimensions: 36-inch for natural gas; 24-inch natural gas liquids
Qualified Bidders have reasonable discretion regarding the pipeline route.

•

This 30-year Concession will be single Concession in two Segments.

•
Concession 2:
Gasoducto Sur
Peruano (GSP)

Phase 1 will run from the existing natural gas fields in the Malvinas to the
Derivation Point at or around KM 73 on the existing TGP pipeline system.
• Pipelines Dimensions: 36-inch for natural gas; 24-inch natural gas liquids

•

Concession 1:
Energy
Security

This 30-year Concession will be a single Concession in two Phases.

Segment a1 will run from the Derivation Point to roughly Urcos
• Pipelines Dimensions: 32-inch for natural gas

•

Segment a2 will run from Urcos south to Mollendo and Ilo
• Pipelines Dimensions: 24-inch for natural gas

•

Qualified Bidders have reasonable discretion regarding the pipeline route.

Questions?

26
Key Contractual
Considerations

Issue

Discussion

Questions?
•
•
Bidder
Selection

Minimum technical and financial criteria will be applied to pre-qualify Bidders
The winning bid will be selected based on the Total Cost of Service

•

MINEM and ProInversión propose some processes to help Winning Bidder
manage risks:
•

Cost of Service Adjustment Process

•

Right of Way Risk

•

Local Community Support Risk

27
Key Contractual
Considerations

Issue

Discussion
MINEM and ProInversión recognize it may be challenging for prospective Bidders to
estimate the cost of construction of the pipeline owing to the difficult terrain,
geotechnical and weather conditions. MINEM and ProInversión propose a process –
the Cost of Service Adjustment Process -- by which unexpected events and related
cost adjustments might be incorporated into the cost recovery system of the pipeline
system.

Questions?

Cost of Service
Adjustment
Process

If, during the course of the construction of the pipeline actual construction costs are
determined to be higher than those used to derive the Total Cost of Service, Winning
Bidder may petition to adjust the Total Cost of Service. This process would be used,
amongst other things, to address such issues as potential cost increases and schedule
delays owing to unexpected archaeological finds and the possible related need to reroute the pipeline.
A qualified and independent international engineering firm would review the
Adjustment Petition as quickly as is practical and, in conjunction with MINEM/
ProInversión, approve re-routing and related modifications in construction costs (and
overall Total Cost of Service) as well as potential modifications to the construction
schedule
Adjustments to the Total Cost of Service would be limited to 15%
28
Key Contractual
Considerations

Issue

Discussion

Questions?

MINEM/ProInversión recognizes that it is challenging for a Bidder to develop an
accurate estimate of the cost of acquiring Right of Way for the construction of the
pipeline without spending many months discussing ROW issues with the many
affected stakeholders in Peru. It is intent of MINEM/ProInversión to limit ROW cost
risk and make it easier to Bidders to estimate the overall cost of the pipeline project.
MINEM/ProInversión will do so in the following steps:
•
Right of Way
Cost Risk

•
•
•
•

MINEM/ProInversión will for each pipeline Concession, provide estimated ROW
costs
Bidder will bid to this estimated cost, such funds to ultimately be placed in escrow
from the Winning Bidder
If total ROW costs exceed the estimated ROW costs, such additional costs will be
paid by Bidder but will be added to the winning bid and will be recovered as part of
the overall cost recovery mechanism
If total ROW costs are less than estimated ROW costs, such difference will be
distributed to local communities along the route of the pipeline
It will still be the role of the Winning Bidder to negotiate ROW with appropriate
stakeholders in consultation with and with the support of MINEM/ProInversión
29
Key Contractual
Considerations

Issue

Discussion

Questions?
MINEM/ProInversión recognizes that the local Peruvian communities affected by the
construction of the pipeline could, in some cases, raise important issues and concerns
that could delay the construction of the pipeline. The government will provide a best
efforts attempt to facilitate the delivery of the environmental and construction permits
and to gain social acceptance of the project in the affected communities
Local
Community
Support

Possible delays in the construction of the pipeline system caused by lack of local
community support that lead higher costs will be managed through the Cost of Service
Adjustment Process
Possible delays in the construction of the pipeline system caused by lack of local
community support that make is impossible for the Winning Bidder to commission the
pipeline according to schedule will be considered a force majeure event

30
Project Background:
Recovery of Cost of Service:
Summary
Most costs recovered from
a “surcharge” on users

A combination of recovery mechanisms depending on the pipeline
segment
The revenue for the pipelines included in the Security Node will be
entirely recovered by the users of the TGP and GSP

As contracted volumes on
the pipelines increase, the
surcharge declines

Over time, conversion of the diesel-fired Energy Node to natural
gas as well as industrial development creates long-term contract
revenues, reducing the need for the surcharge

Mechanism of Guaranteed
Income

“Mechanism of Guaranteed Income” – Law 29970: Peruvian
government through this mechanism guarantees the investment
recovery in all trenches of the pipelines (natural gas and liquids)

Winning Bidder effectively
holds Peru economy risk

Ability to collect the surcharges and the tariffs from users

31
Contract consideration:
Remuneration system
There are three different systems that will work in these various concessions to
guarantee the payment to the winners of the projects
Energy Security and Gasoducto Sur Peruano Systems
Concession 2: GSP

Concession 1: Energy Security

Product Pipeline b and c
Payment – all liquids users
in the country

The tariff for the liquids
security loop is distributed
between all the liquids
users and is sufficient to
cover the cost of service of
the liquids product pipeline.

Gas Pipeline b and c

Gas Pipeline a1

Payment - all natural gas users in the country

Pipeline
Tariffs from
users

The tariff for the gas pipelines included in the energy
security is distributed between all the users of natural gas
and is sufficient to cover the difference between the cost of
service of the gas pipelines and the payment of the users of
the gas at Quillabamba.

Gas Pipeline a2

GRP

Pipeline Tariffs
from users

The GRP would
compensate for the
difference between the cost
of service of a2 and the
revenue generated from
the users of a2 (generators
and others).

32
Contract consideration:
Estimated Cost of Service
The Cost of Service accounts for Capex/Opex and the tax regime
Cost of service of the security pipelines (MM$)

Cost of service of the GSP (MM$)

1,166

3,005

760

406

Security
liquid loops

2,117

888

Security natural Security loops
gas loops

GSP
Segment a1

GSP
Segment a2

GSP Total
33
Contract consideration:
Remuneration system
INDICATIVE

Tariff System
Pipeline

Applicable
Tariff

Affected Consumers

Tariffs

Impact on enduser price

Product Pipeline b y c

Security
tariff

All liquids users in the
country

$1.1/bbl

2%

Security
tariff

All natural gas users in the
country

$0.5/kcf

9%

$1.2/kcf

N/A

$2.1/kcf

N/A

$1.2/kcf

N/A

$2.1/kcf

N/A

$0.13¢/kWh

2%

Gas Pipeline b y c

Regulated
Tariff
GRP Tariff

Gas Pipeline a1

Generator users of GSP –
segment a1
All other users of GSP –
segment a1
Generator users of GSP –
segment a2
All other users of GSP –
segment a2
All electricity users

TGP Tariff
Regulated
Tariff(GSP)
TGP Tariff

Gas Pipeline a2

It is assumed that all tariffs are adjusted based on IPP: “Finished Goods Less Food and Energy”

34
Project Description:
Timeline for the pipelines bidding
process

Activity

Oct

2013
Nov

Dec

Jan

2014
Feb
Mar

Apr

Roadshow Calgary
Roadshow Houston
Roadshow Lima
Consultation of the tender documents
Responses to the consultation
Qualification of participants
Communication to all the qualified
participants
Publication of the final version of the
contracts
Presentation of the legal, technical
and commercial proposal
Award of the contract
Contract closure
35
Project Description:
Timeline for the power plants
bidding process

Activity
Update to tender documents published
Consultation of the tender documents
Responses to the consultation
Pre-qualification of Participants and
timeline for establishment of consortiums
Communication to all the qualified
participants
Publication of the final version of the
contracts
Presentation of the legal, technical
and commercial proposal
Award of the contract
Contract closure

Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
05. 12. 19. 26. 02. 09. 16. 23. 30. 07. 14. 21. 28. 04. 11. 18.
16/08/2013
17/09/2013
25/09/2013
15/10/2013
28/10/2013

30/10/2013
13/11/2013
15/11/2013
TBD

36
1. Project background
2. Project description
3. Technical considerations
4. Contract considerations
5. Q&A
Questions?

Questions?

38
www.proinversion.gob.pe
contact@proinversion.gob.pe

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Gasoducto Sur Peruano en Calgary

  • 1. ENERGY SECURITY AND SOUTH PERUVIAN GAS PIPELINE PROJECTS October 2013
  • 2. Why we are here today ProInversión, the promotion arm of Peru Government, seeks investors to help construct and operate new natural gas and gas liquids pipeline infrastructure as well as new power generation facilities in Peru. Four concessions are envisaged: • • • Two separate concessions of 500MW (+ or – 20%) each of diesel-fired generation in the southern coastal region (the Energy Node), to be connected to the natural gas pipeline once gas is available Gasoducto Sur Peruano (GSP), a natural gas pipeline from the existing TGP system to these power generation facilities in the south as well as to other consumers such as potential petrochemicals The “Energy Security Project” – additional natural gas and gas liquids pipeline capacity from the Camisea region to Chiquintirca to improve reliability of the overall system Today we will discuss each of these projects, their economic, strategic rationale and key technical, financial, and contractual considerations 2
  • 3. 1. Project background 2. Project description 3. Technical considerations 4. Contract considerations 5. Q&A
  • 4. Project Background: Strong growth in Peruvian energy production Domestic production of hydrocarbons has increased roughly 16% p.a. since 2006 while the consumption of natural gas has increased 37% p.a. Peru Energy Historical Resource Production Crude Natural Gas 300 CAGR (06-12): 16% 250 • Since 2008 the average GDP growth has roughly been 6.5% p.a. KBOE 200 • As of 2012, the gas demand is broken out in the following way: • Peru LNG (56%) • Power (27%) • Industrial (10%) • GNV (5%) • Residential (1%) 150 100 50 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 - Source: MINEM 4
  • 5. Project Background: Power generation in Peru is divided into three zones Hydroelectric Northern Zone Solar Total Installed Capacity (MW): 433 356 788 Effective Capacity (MW): Annual Production (GWh): 454 327 781 2,462 820 3,282 395 62 457 Peak Demand (MW) : Hydroelectric Central Zone Thermal Thermal Solar Total Installed Capacity (MW): 2,384 3,409 5,793 Effective Capacity (MW): Annual Production (GWh): 2,258 3,155 5,413 15,734 14,884 30,618 2,102 2,253 4,355 Peak Demand (MW) : Hydroelectric Thermal Solar Total Installed Capacity (MW): Southern Zone 428 527 84 1,039 Effective Capacity (MW): Annual Production (GWh): 428 415 80 923 2,652 709 60 3,421 345 133 Peak Demand (MW) : Hydroelectric Thermal 479 Solar Total Installed Capacity (MW): Peru Total 3,244 4,292 84 7,620 Effective Capacity (MW): Annual Production (GWh): 3,140 3,897 80 7,117 20,849 16,413 60 37,321 2,843 2,448 Peak Demand (MW) : 5,291 Source: COES Operational Statistics 2012 5
  • 6. Project Background: The central region generates the majority of Peru’s power Growth in power generation in Peru since 2006 has averaged roughly 9% p.a. Installed Generation Capacity and Power Generation by Region in Peru North Central South Total - Effective Capacity (MW) 8,000 40,000 7,000 CAGR (‘06-’12): 9.1% 30,000 6,000 25,000 5,000 20,000 4,000 15,000 3,000 10,000 2,000 5,000 1,000 Effective Capacity (MW) Power Generation (GWh) 35,000 - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: COES Operational Statistics 2012 6
  • 7. Project Background: The power sector is driving growth in natural gas consumption Natural gas demand is expected to grow significantly, led by the power sector Peru Natural Gas Demand Forecast (2013 – 2033) LNG Other Users - North 2,500 Possible Future LNG Electricity - South Electricity - North Other Users - South NGV - North CAGR (’20-’33): 2.5% 2,000 MMCFD CAGR (’12-’20): 5.1% 1,500 1,000 500 0 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 Source: Wood Mackenzie’s analysis, COES 7
  • 8. Project Background: Highly prospective plays expected to meet future growth There are a number of highly prospective plays in Peru that will provide the resources to meet continued demand growth in natural gas First exploratory well is expected to be drilled in block 76 in 2015, Prospective reserves of around 2-3 tcf are expected Reserves Natural Gas (TCF) Natural Gas Liquids (MMbbl) Block Proved (1P) 2P1 Proved (1P) 2P1 56 3.0 4.0 216.8 293.4 57 0.6 2.5 30.8 132.3 58 0.0 2.3 0.0 135.9 88 10.3 11.9 515.1 614.7 Total 14 21 763 1,176 Source: COES Operational Statistics 2012; Note: 2P is inclusive of 1P 8
  • 9. Project Background: Reserves outlook vs. demand outlook Peru has more than enough reserves to meet the expected domestic demand for the next 30+ years Demand Outlook (2013-2050) - tcf 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Demand 19 20 2 21 6 13 9 4 LNG Electricity Other Electricity Other demand - users - demand - users North North South South Reserves Outlook (2013-2050) - tcf 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 21 Probable reserves Proved reserves 17 14 12 It is expected that additional reserves will be found and developed as demand expands and infrastructure bottlenecks are removed Block 56 Block 57 Block 58 Block 88 9
  • 10. Project Background: Infrastructure investment needed to meet growing gas production The TGP expansion and the construction of Gasoducto Sur Peruano will drive further development of the Camisea basin Peru Natural Gas production forecast It is expected that additional reserves will be developed to reverse the expected fall in production 2500 mmcfd 2000 Production is based on 1P reserves 1500 1000 500 PLNG TGP Gas TGP Gas - Expansion GSP - Aprox. Capacity 2032 2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 0 Production Source: MINEM, Wood Mackenzie 2013, Upstream Services; Includes blocks: 56, 57, 58, 88 (Block 76 could be incorporated in the future) 10
  • 11. Project Background: Added take-away capacity also needed in NGLs Like natural gas, current natural gas liquids production is infrastructure limited NGL Production and Takeaway Capacity 200 It is expected that additional reserves will be developed to reverse the expected fall in production 180 160 140 Production is based on 1P reserves Kb/d 120 100 80 60 40 20 TGP - NGL TGP - NGL - Expansion 2032 2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 0 Production Source: Wood Mackenzie 2013, Upstream Services; Includes blocks: 56, 57, 58, 88 (Block 76 could be incorporated in the future) 11
  • 12. 1. Project background 2. Project description 3. Technical considerations 4. Contract considerations 5. Q&A
  • 13. Project Description: Energy infrastructure projects proposed Energy Security and Gasoducto Sur Peruano Projects BRASIL MALVINAS LIMA (Lurín) Pampa Melchorita PISCO Km 73 Km 127 Loop TGP HUANCAVELICA ICA QUILLABAMBA CHIQUINTIRC A HUMAY ANT A APURIMAC ABANCAY AYACUCHO MADRE DE DIOS ZONA DE SEGURIDAD ENERGÉTICA CUSCO CUSCO ESPINAR MARCONA PUNO JULIACA AREQUIPA ACTUALES TGP (SISTEMA ACTUAL + LOOP COSTA) Gasoducto / Poliducto CONTUGAS (SISTEMA ACTUAL) PERU LNG (GASODUCTO) PUNO LAGO TITICACA AREQUIPA MOQUEGUA PROYECTADOS GASODUCTO DE SEGURIDAD ENERGÉTICA POLIDUCTO DE SEGURIDAD ENERGÉTICA GASODUCTO SUR PERUANO ZONA DE UBICACIÓN DEL POLO PETROQUÍMICO Y DEL NODO ENERGÉTICO TACNA BOLIVIA CHILE 13
  • 14. Project Background: Strategic rationale 1 Energy security Historical failures of the TGP system has had a large financial impact on the country’s economics (~$400,000/day) Sense of vulnerability as ~50% of the power produced in Lima depends on a single supply line 2 Resolve Infrastructure constraints 500 MMcf/d of gas is being re-injected due to limitations in midstream gas processing and downstream markets 3 Address Socio/Economic Issues Trigger economic development in Southern Peru and address demographic concentration 4 Remedy Regional Power Generation Disparities ~60% of power consumed in the south is generated in the north while demand for peak power in the south is growing 14
  • 15. Project Description: Energy Node & Gasoducto Sur Peruano c The GSP sections from the Point of Connection (PC) to Mollendo/Ilo which includes: Section a1: Gas pipeline from the PC to the province of Anta Section a2: Gas pipeline from the province of Anta to Mollendo/Ilo Section b: Gas and liquids pipeline from the separation plant at Malvinas to the PC Section c: Gas and liquids pipeline from the PC to the compression plant at Chiquintirca (km 211) Chiquintirca b MALVINAS PC QUILLABAMBA ANTA a1 Existing Liquids Pipeline Gas Pipeline URCOS APURÍMAC AREQUIPA PUNO a2 MOLLENDO ILO TACNA 15
  • 16. 1. Project background 2. Project description 3. Technical considerations 4. Contract considerations 5. Q&A
  • 17. Technical Considerations: Existing TGP pipeline (NG and NGL) has limited capacity Existing Transmission System – Natural Gas TgP NG Maximum Operating Capacity with current configuration : 1230 MMSCFD Km 211: Chiquintirca Compression Station 32” Arrival Pressure: 70 barg Km 127: Kepashiato Intermediate Compression Station in construction to increase capacity to 1,500 MMCFD 32” Km 0: Malvinas Plant Capacity 2000 MMCFD Discharge Pressure: 147 barg Existing Transmission System –Natural Gas Liquids TgP NGL Maximum Operating Capacity with current configuration: 110 MBPD Km 210: Chiquintirca PS3 Inlet Pressure: 7 barg 14” Km 108: PS2 Suction Pressure : 16 barg Discharge Pressure : varies with flow rate 14” Km 0: PS1 Discharge Pressure: 24 barg 17
  • 18. Technical Considerations: The pipelines have a number of technical complexities 1 Protected Areas The environmental impact is the most onerous During construction phase 2 Archaeological Issues Numerous archaeological sites in Peru - possibility finding archaeological artefacts during construction 3 Seismic Areas Pipeline stability protection solutions should be given to protect the pipeline from movements caused by difficult terrains that need to be traversed 4 Terrain Difficulties Terrain traverses from low to high altitude locations with dramatic slopes that need to be considered; there will be a requirement for slope protection Right of Way (RoW) Issues RoW located in jungle, mountain, costal desert where isolated tribes need to be considered for safety and security issues. There will be logistical requirements to avoid issues because of proximity to communities 5 18
  • 19. Technical Considerations: Energy Security Recommendation Schematic Future Transmission System – Natural Gas MMCFD TgP NG expected Maximum Operating Capacity with current configuration 1230 Energy Security Maximum Operating Capacity (0-73km/73-211km): Existing New Km 127: 2000/1500 Km 211: Chinquintirca Compression Station Arrival Pressure: 70 barg 32” 36” Kepashiato Intermediate Compression Station to increase capacity to 1,500 MMCFD 32” 36” 32” Km 73: Derivation Point 36” Km 0: Malvinas Plant Capacity 2000 MMCFD Discharge Pressure: 147 barg Future Transmission System –Natural Gas Liquids KBD TgP NGL Maximum Operating Capacity (with DRA): Energy Security Maximum Operating Capacity/Design of new (without DRA) : Existing with DRA New 14” Km 210: Chinquintirca PS3 Km 108: PS2 24” Inlet Pressure: 7 barg 130 130 14” Km TBD: PS2 (New) Km 0: PS1 24” Km 0: PS1 (New) Note: 1) Design capacity is expected to be 10% above operating capacity 19
  • 20. Technical Considerations: Energy Security Recommended Installations Energy Security Loop Overview – Recommended Option Product Recommendation Natural Gas • • • 36” NG Loop from Las Malvinas Separation Plant to Chinquintirca 4 Scrapper Facilities 8 section valves Natural Gas Liquids • • • • 24” NGL Loop from Las Malvinas Separation Plant to Chinquintirca 4 Scrapper Facilities 10 section valves 2 New pumping stations at Las Malvinas Plant close by to Derivation Point Full System • 2 new control rooms 20
  • 21. Technical Considerations: Energy Security CAPEX Estimate Energy Security Loop CAPEX Estimate Estimated Total CAPEX : $981,000,000 Cost Breakout Basic Engineering / Feed Surveys Detailed Engineering and Project Management Materials - Line Pipe, Major Valves, etc. Cost ($) Excluded 8,000,000 42,000,000 370,000,000 Compression and Equipment 17,000,000 Controls : Field Instruments, Sub-Systems, Bulks, SCADA and RTU 19,000,000 Buildings 41,000,000 Construction Works 484,000,000 21
  • 22. Technical Considerations: Gasoducto Sur Peruano Recommendation Schematic Gasoducto Sur Peruano System Km 211: Chinquintirca Compression Station Arrival Pressure: 70 barg 32” 36” Km 127: Kepashiato Intermediate Compression Station to increase capacity to 1,500 MMCFD Quillabamba: 50 MMscfd 32” 14” URCOS 32” Mollendo: 275 MMCFD 24” 32” 36” Km 73: Derivation Point 32” 36” GSP Flow Rates Km 0: Malvinas Plant Capacity 2000 MMCFD Discharge Pressure: 147 barg MMCFD: Inlet of system1 Quillabamba (Power) Mollendo (Petrochemicals) Mollendo (Power) Ilo (Petrochemicals) Ilo (Power) : 500 : 50 : 50 : 175 : 50 : 175 Km762 24” Ilo: 175 MMCFD TgP existing NG Pipeline NG new Security Pipeline Gasoducto Sur Peruano Note: 1) Design capacity is expected to be 10% above operating capacity 22
  • 23. Technical Considerations: Gasoducto Sur Peruano Recommended Installations Gasoducto Sur Peruano Overview – Recommended Option Product Natural Gas Recommendation • • • • • 32” from Point of Derivation from TGP/Energy Security to Mollendo Branch (Km762) 24” from Km 762 to the end of the pipeline at Ilo 9 Scrapper Facilities 27 section valves (blocking and bleeding stations) 8 branches: Quilibamba, Anta, Apurimac, Espinar, Juliaca /Puno, Arequipa, Mollendo, Moquegua, Tacna 23
  • 24. Technical Considerations: Gasoducto Sur Peruano CAPEX Estimate Gasoducto Sur Peruano CAPEX Estimate Estimated Total CAPEX : $2,463,000,000 Cost Breakout Basic Engineering / Feed Surveys Cost ($) Excluded 20,000,000 Detailed Engineering and Project Management 112,000,000 Materials - Line Pipe, Major Valves, etc. 882,000,000 Compression and Equipment Not required Controls : Field Instruments, Sub-Systems, Bulks, SCADA and RTU 62,000,000 Buildings 16,000,000 Construction Works 1,371,000,000 24
  • 25. 1. Project background 2. Project description 3. Technical considerations 4. Contract considerations 5. Q&A
  • 26. Key Contractual Considerations Issue Discussion • • • Phase 2 will run from the Derivation Point to Chiquintirca. • Pipelines Dimensions: 36-inch for natural gas; 24-inch natural gas liquids Qualified Bidders have reasonable discretion regarding the pipeline route. • This 30-year Concession will be single Concession in two Segments. • Concession 2: Gasoducto Sur Peruano (GSP) Phase 1 will run from the existing natural gas fields in the Malvinas to the Derivation Point at or around KM 73 on the existing TGP pipeline system. • Pipelines Dimensions: 36-inch for natural gas; 24-inch natural gas liquids • Concession 1: Energy Security This 30-year Concession will be a single Concession in two Phases. Segment a1 will run from the Derivation Point to roughly Urcos • Pipelines Dimensions: 32-inch for natural gas • Segment a2 will run from Urcos south to Mollendo and Ilo • Pipelines Dimensions: 24-inch for natural gas • Qualified Bidders have reasonable discretion regarding the pipeline route. Questions? 26
  • 27. Key Contractual Considerations Issue Discussion Questions? • • Bidder Selection Minimum technical and financial criteria will be applied to pre-qualify Bidders The winning bid will be selected based on the Total Cost of Service • MINEM and ProInversión propose some processes to help Winning Bidder manage risks: • Cost of Service Adjustment Process • Right of Way Risk • Local Community Support Risk 27
  • 28. Key Contractual Considerations Issue Discussion MINEM and ProInversión recognize it may be challenging for prospective Bidders to estimate the cost of construction of the pipeline owing to the difficult terrain, geotechnical and weather conditions. MINEM and ProInversión propose a process – the Cost of Service Adjustment Process -- by which unexpected events and related cost adjustments might be incorporated into the cost recovery system of the pipeline system. Questions? Cost of Service Adjustment Process If, during the course of the construction of the pipeline actual construction costs are determined to be higher than those used to derive the Total Cost of Service, Winning Bidder may petition to adjust the Total Cost of Service. This process would be used, amongst other things, to address such issues as potential cost increases and schedule delays owing to unexpected archaeological finds and the possible related need to reroute the pipeline. A qualified and independent international engineering firm would review the Adjustment Petition as quickly as is practical and, in conjunction with MINEM/ ProInversión, approve re-routing and related modifications in construction costs (and overall Total Cost of Service) as well as potential modifications to the construction schedule Adjustments to the Total Cost of Service would be limited to 15% 28
  • 29. Key Contractual Considerations Issue Discussion Questions? MINEM/ProInversión recognizes that it is challenging for a Bidder to develop an accurate estimate of the cost of acquiring Right of Way for the construction of the pipeline without spending many months discussing ROW issues with the many affected stakeholders in Peru. It is intent of MINEM/ProInversión to limit ROW cost risk and make it easier to Bidders to estimate the overall cost of the pipeline project. MINEM/ProInversión will do so in the following steps: • Right of Way Cost Risk • • • • MINEM/ProInversión will for each pipeline Concession, provide estimated ROW costs Bidder will bid to this estimated cost, such funds to ultimately be placed in escrow from the Winning Bidder If total ROW costs exceed the estimated ROW costs, such additional costs will be paid by Bidder but will be added to the winning bid and will be recovered as part of the overall cost recovery mechanism If total ROW costs are less than estimated ROW costs, such difference will be distributed to local communities along the route of the pipeline It will still be the role of the Winning Bidder to negotiate ROW with appropriate stakeholders in consultation with and with the support of MINEM/ProInversión 29
  • 30. Key Contractual Considerations Issue Discussion Questions? MINEM/ProInversión recognizes that the local Peruvian communities affected by the construction of the pipeline could, in some cases, raise important issues and concerns that could delay the construction of the pipeline. The government will provide a best efforts attempt to facilitate the delivery of the environmental and construction permits and to gain social acceptance of the project in the affected communities Local Community Support Possible delays in the construction of the pipeline system caused by lack of local community support that lead higher costs will be managed through the Cost of Service Adjustment Process Possible delays in the construction of the pipeline system caused by lack of local community support that make is impossible for the Winning Bidder to commission the pipeline according to schedule will be considered a force majeure event 30
  • 31. Project Background: Recovery of Cost of Service: Summary Most costs recovered from a “surcharge” on users A combination of recovery mechanisms depending on the pipeline segment The revenue for the pipelines included in the Security Node will be entirely recovered by the users of the TGP and GSP As contracted volumes on the pipelines increase, the surcharge declines Over time, conversion of the diesel-fired Energy Node to natural gas as well as industrial development creates long-term contract revenues, reducing the need for the surcharge Mechanism of Guaranteed Income “Mechanism of Guaranteed Income” – Law 29970: Peruvian government through this mechanism guarantees the investment recovery in all trenches of the pipelines (natural gas and liquids) Winning Bidder effectively holds Peru economy risk Ability to collect the surcharges and the tariffs from users 31
  • 32. Contract consideration: Remuneration system There are three different systems that will work in these various concessions to guarantee the payment to the winners of the projects Energy Security and Gasoducto Sur Peruano Systems Concession 2: GSP Concession 1: Energy Security Product Pipeline b and c Payment – all liquids users in the country The tariff for the liquids security loop is distributed between all the liquids users and is sufficient to cover the cost of service of the liquids product pipeline. Gas Pipeline b and c Gas Pipeline a1 Payment - all natural gas users in the country Pipeline Tariffs from users The tariff for the gas pipelines included in the energy security is distributed between all the users of natural gas and is sufficient to cover the difference between the cost of service of the gas pipelines and the payment of the users of the gas at Quillabamba. Gas Pipeline a2 GRP Pipeline Tariffs from users The GRP would compensate for the difference between the cost of service of a2 and the revenue generated from the users of a2 (generators and others). 32
  • 33. Contract consideration: Estimated Cost of Service The Cost of Service accounts for Capex/Opex and the tax regime Cost of service of the security pipelines (MM$) Cost of service of the GSP (MM$) 1,166 3,005 760 406 Security liquid loops 2,117 888 Security natural Security loops gas loops GSP Segment a1 GSP Segment a2 GSP Total 33
  • 34. Contract consideration: Remuneration system INDICATIVE Tariff System Pipeline Applicable Tariff Affected Consumers Tariffs Impact on enduser price Product Pipeline b y c Security tariff All liquids users in the country $1.1/bbl 2% Security tariff All natural gas users in the country $0.5/kcf 9% $1.2/kcf N/A $2.1/kcf N/A $1.2/kcf N/A $2.1/kcf N/A $0.13¢/kWh 2% Gas Pipeline b y c Regulated Tariff GRP Tariff Gas Pipeline a1 Generator users of GSP – segment a1 All other users of GSP – segment a1 Generator users of GSP – segment a2 All other users of GSP – segment a2 All electricity users TGP Tariff Regulated Tariff(GSP) TGP Tariff Gas Pipeline a2 It is assumed that all tariffs are adjusted based on IPP: “Finished Goods Less Food and Energy” 34
  • 35. Project Description: Timeline for the pipelines bidding process Activity Oct 2013 Nov Dec Jan 2014 Feb Mar Apr Roadshow Calgary Roadshow Houston Roadshow Lima Consultation of the tender documents Responses to the consultation Qualification of participants Communication to all the qualified participants Publication of the final version of the contracts Presentation of the legal, technical and commercial proposal Award of the contract Contract closure 35
  • 36. Project Description: Timeline for the power plants bidding process Activity Update to tender documents published Consultation of the tender documents Responses to the consultation Pre-qualification of Participants and timeline for establishment of consortiums Communication to all the qualified participants Publication of the final version of the contracts Presentation of the legal, technical and commercial proposal Award of the contract Contract closure Aug Sep Oct Nov 05. 12. 19. 26. 02. 09. 16. 23. 30. 07. 14. 21. 28. 04. 11. 18. 16/08/2013 17/09/2013 25/09/2013 15/10/2013 28/10/2013 30/10/2013 13/11/2013 15/11/2013 TBD 36
  • 37. 1. Project background 2. Project description 3. Technical considerations 4. Contract considerations 5. Q&A