Presentación que hizo ProInversión en Calgary (14/10/13) en el roadshow “In Perú, it is possible to invest”.
En el nuevo diseño del Gasoducto del Sur, presentado por Wood Mackenzie y Foster Wheeler Energy, ya no habrá ningún tramo realizado por la empresa TGP, sino que se licitará el "loop de la selva", desde Malvinas hasta Chiquintirca (Ayacucho) y que este gasoducto ya no será de 32 pulgadas como se señalaba antes, sino de 36 pulgadas.
Tampoco contempla un poliducto de Malvinas al sur como estipula la Ley N° 29970, sólo el gasoducto de 32 pulgadas.
2. Why we are here today
ProInversión, the promotion arm of Peru Government, seeks investors to
help construct and operate new natural gas and gas liquids pipeline
infrastructure as well as new power generation facilities in Peru. Four
concessions are envisaged:
•
•
•
Two separate concessions of 500MW (+ or – 20%) each of diesel-fired
generation in the southern coastal region (the Energy Node), to be
connected to the natural gas pipeline once gas is available
Gasoducto Sur Peruano (GSP), a natural gas pipeline from the existing
TGP system to these power generation facilities in the south as well as
to other consumers such as potential petrochemicals
The “Energy Security Project” – additional natural gas and gas liquids
pipeline capacity from the Camisea region to Chiquintirca to improve
reliability of the overall system
Today we will discuss each of these projects, their economic, strategic
rationale and key technical, financial, and contractual considerations
2
4. Project Background:
Strong growth in Peruvian energy
production
Domestic production of hydrocarbons has increased roughly 16% p.a. since 2006 while
the consumption of natural gas has increased 37% p.a.
Peru Energy Historical Resource Production
Crude
Natural Gas
300
CAGR (06-12): 16%
250
• Since 2008 the average GDP growth
has roughly been 6.5% p.a.
KBOE
200
• As of 2012, the gas demand is broken
out in the following way:
• Peru LNG (56%)
• Power (27%)
• Industrial (10%)
• GNV (5%)
• Residential (1%)
150
100
50
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
-
Source: MINEM
4
5. Project Background:
Power generation in Peru is divided
into three zones
Hydroelectric
Northern
Zone
Solar
Total
Installed Capacity (MW):
433
356
788
Effective Capacity (MW):
Annual Production
(GWh):
454
327
781
2,462
820
3,282
395
62
457
Peak Demand (MW) :
Hydroelectric
Central
Zone
Thermal
Thermal
Solar
Total
Installed Capacity (MW):
2,384
3,409
5,793
Effective Capacity (MW):
Annual Production
(GWh):
2,258
3,155
5,413
15,734
14,884
30,618
2,102
2,253
4,355
Peak Demand (MW) :
Hydroelectric
Thermal
Solar
Total
Installed Capacity (MW):
Southern
Zone
428
527
84
1,039
Effective Capacity (MW):
Annual Production
(GWh):
428
415
80
923
2,652
709
60
3,421
345
133
Peak Demand (MW) :
Hydroelectric
Thermal
479
Solar
Total
Installed Capacity (MW):
Peru Total
3,244
4,292
84
7,620
Effective Capacity (MW):
Annual Production
(GWh):
3,140
3,897
80
7,117
20,849
16,413
60
37,321
2,843
2,448
Peak Demand (MW) :
5,291
Source: COES Operational Statistics 2012
5
6. Project Background:
The central region generates the
majority of Peru’s power
Growth in power generation in Peru since 2006 has averaged roughly 9% p.a.
Installed Generation Capacity and Power Generation by Region in Peru
North
Central
South
Total - Effective Capacity (MW)
8,000
40,000
7,000
CAGR (‘06-’12): 9.1%
30,000
6,000
25,000
5,000
20,000
4,000
15,000
3,000
10,000
2,000
5,000
1,000
Effective Capacity (MW)
Power Generation (GWh)
35,000
-
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: COES Operational Statistics 2012
6
7. Project Background:
The power sector is driving growth
in natural gas consumption
Natural gas demand is expected to grow significantly, led by the power sector
Peru Natural Gas Demand Forecast (2013 – 2033)
LNG
Other Users - North
2,500
Possible Future LNG
Electricity - South
Electricity - North
Other Users - South
NGV - North
CAGR (’20-’33): 2.5%
2,000
MMCFD
CAGR (’12-’20): 5.1%
1,500
1,000
500
0
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
2033
Source: Wood Mackenzie’s analysis, COES
7
8. Project Background:
Highly prospective plays expected to
meet future growth
There are a number of highly prospective plays in Peru that will provide the resources
to meet continued demand growth in natural gas
First exploratory well is
expected to be drilled in
block 76 in 2015,
Prospective reserves of
around 2-3 tcf are expected
Reserves
Natural Gas
(TCF)
Natural Gas Liquids
(MMbbl)
Block
Proved (1P)
2P1
Proved (1P)
2P1
56
3.0
4.0
216.8
293.4
57
0.6
2.5
30.8
132.3
58
0.0
2.3
0.0
135.9
88
10.3
11.9
515.1
614.7
Total
14
21
763
1,176
Source: COES Operational Statistics 2012; Note: 2P is inclusive of 1P
8
9. Project Background:
Reserves outlook vs. demand
outlook
Peru has more than enough reserves to meet the expected domestic demand
for the next 30+ years
Demand Outlook (2013-2050) - tcf
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Demand
19
20
2
21
6
13
9
4
LNG
Electricity Other Electricity Other
demand - users - demand - users North
North
South
South
Reserves Outlook (2013-2050) - tcf
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
21
Probable reserves
Proved reserves
17
14
12
It is expected that additional
reserves will be found and
developed as demand expands
and infrastructure bottlenecks
are removed
Block 56
Block 57
Block 58
Block 88
9
10. Project Background:
Infrastructure investment needed to
meet growing gas production
The TGP expansion and the construction of Gasoducto Sur Peruano will drive further
development of the Camisea basin
Peru Natural Gas production forecast
It is expected that additional
reserves will be developed to
reverse the expected fall in
production
2500
mmcfd
2000
Production is based on 1P
reserves
1500
1000
500
PLNG
TGP Gas
TGP Gas - Expansion
GSP - Aprox. Capacity
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
0
Production
Source: MINEM, Wood Mackenzie 2013, Upstream Services; Includes blocks: 56, 57, 58, 88 (Block 76 could be incorporated in the future)
10
11. Project Background:
Added take-away capacity also
needed in NGLs
Like natural gas, current natural gas liquids production is infrastructure limited
NGL Production and Takeaway Capacity
200
It is expected that additional
reserves will be developed to
reverse the expected fall in
production
180
160
140
Production is based on 1P
reserves
Kb/d
120
100
80
60
40
20
TGP - NGL
TGP - NGL - Expansion
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
0
Production
Source: Wood Mackenzie 2013, Upstream Services; Includes blocks: 56, 57, 58, 88 (Block 76 could be incorporated in the future)
11
13. Project Description:
Energy infrastructure projects
proposed
Energy Security and Gasoducto Sur Peruano Projects
BRASIL
MALVINAS
LIMA
(Lurín)
Pampa
Melchorita
PISCO
Km 73
Km
127
Loop
TGP
HUANCAVELICA
ICA
QUILLABAMBA
CHIQUINTIRC
A
HUMAY
ANT
A
APURIMAC
ABANCAY
AYACUCHO
MADRE DE
DIOS
ZONA DE
SEGURIDAD
ENERGÉTICA
CUSCO
CUSCO
ESPINAR
MARCONA
PUNO
JULIACA
AREQUIPA
ACTUALES
TGP (SISTEMA ACTUAL + LOOP COSTA)
Gasoducto / Poliducto
CONTUGAS (SISTEMA ACTUAL)
PERU LNG (GASODUCTO)
PUNO
LAGO
TITICACA
AREQUIPA
MOQUEGUA
PROYECTADOS
GASODUCTO DE SEGURIDAD ENERGÉTICA
POLIDUCTO DE SEGURIDAD ENERGÉTICA
GASODUCTO SUR PERUANO
ZONA DE UBICACIÓN DEL
POLO PETROQUÍMICO Y
DEL NODO ENERGÉTICO
TACNA
BOLIVIA
CHILE
13
14. Project Background:
Strategic rationale
1
Energy security
Historical failures of the TGP system has had a large financial
impact on the country’s economics (~$400,000/day)
Sense of vulnerability as ~50% of the power produced in Lima
depends on a single supply line
2
Resolve
Infrastructure
constraints
500 MMcf/d of gas is being re-injected due to limitations in
midstream gas processing and downstream markets
3
Address
Socio/Economic
Issues
Trigger economic development in Southern Peru and address
demographic concentration
4
Remedy Regional
Power Generation
Disparities
~60% of power consumed in the south is generated in the north
while demand for peak power in the south is growing
14
15. Project Description:
Energy Node & Gasoducto Sur Peruano
c
The GSP sections from the Point of
Connection (PC) to Mollendo/Ilo which
includes:
Section a1: Gas pipeline from the PC
to the province of Anta
Section a2: Gas pipeline from the
province of Anta to Mollendo/Ilo
Section b: Gas and liquids pipeline from
the separation plant at Malvinas to the
PC
Section c: Gas and liquids pipeline from
the PC to the compression plant at
Chiquintirca (km 211)
Chiquintirca
b
MALVINAS
PC
QUILLABAMBA
ANTA
a1
Existing
Liquids Pipeline
Gas Pipeline
URCOS
APURÍMAC
AREQUIPA
PUNO
a2
MOLLENDO
ILO
TACNA
15
17. Technical Considerations:
Existing TGP pipeline (NG and NGL)
has limited capacity
Existing Transmission System – Natural Gas
TgP NG Maximum Operating Capacity with current configuration : 1230 MMSCFD
Km 211:
Chiquintirca
Compression Station
32”
Arrival Pressure: 70
barg
Km 127:
Kepashiato Intermediate
Compression Station in
construction
to increase capacity to
1,500 MMCFD
32”
Km 0: Malvinas Plant
Capacity 2000 MMCFD
Discharge Pressure:
147 barg
Existing Transmission System –Natural Gas Liquids
TgP NGL Maximum Operating Capacity with current configuration: 110 MBPD
Km 210:
Chiquintirca PS3
Inlet Pressure: 7 barg
14”
Km 108:
PS2 Suction Pressure :
16 barg
Discharge Pressure :
varies with flow rate
14”
Km 0:
PS1
Discharge Pressure:
24 barg
17
18. Technical Considerations:
The pipelines have a number of
technical complexities
1
Protected Areas
The environmental impact is the most onerous During
construction phase
2
Archaeological
Issues
Numerous archaeological sites in Peru - possibility finding
archaeological artefacts during construction
3
Seismic Areas
Pipeline stability protection solutions should be given to
protect the pipeline from movements caused by difficult
terrains that need to be traversed
4
Terrain
Difficulties
Terrain traverses from low to high altitude locations with
dramatic slopes that need to be considered; there will be a
requirement for slope protection
Right of Way
(RoW) Issues
RoW located in jungle, mountain, costal desert where
isolated tribes need to be considered for safety and
security issues. There will be logistical requirements to
avoid issues because of proximity to communities
5
18
19. Technical Considerations:
Energy Security
Recommendation Schematic
Future Transmission System – Natural Gas
MMCFD
TgP NG expected Maximum Operating Capacity with current configuration
1230
Energy Security Maximum Operating Capacity (0-73km/73-211km):
Existing
New
Km 127:
2000/1500
Km 211:
Chinquintirca
Compression Station
Arrival Pressure:
70 barg
32”
36”
Kepashiato Intermediate
Compression Station
to increase capacity to
1,500 MMCFD
32”
36”
32”
Km 73:
Derivation Point
36”
Km 0: Malvinas Plant
Capacity 2000 MMCFD
Discharge Pressure:
147 barg
Future Transmission System –Natural Gas Liquids
KBD
TgP NGL Maximum Operating Capacity (with DRA):
Energy Security Maximum Operating Capacity/Design of new (without DRA) :
Existing with DRA
New
14”
Km 210:
Chinquintirca PS3
Km 108:
PS2
24”
Inlet Pressure: 7 barg
130
130
14”
Km TBD:
PS2 (New)
Km 0:
PS1
24”
Km 0:
PS1 (New)
Note: 1) Design capacity is expected to be 10% above operating capacity
19
20. Technical Considerations:
Energy Security
Recommended Installations
Energy Security Loop Overview – Recommended Option
Product
Recommendation
Natural Gas
•
•
•
36” NG Loop from Las Malvinas Separation Plant to Chinquintirca
4 Scrapper Facilities
8 section valves
Natural Gas
Liquids
•
•
•
•
24” NGL Loop from Las Malvinas Separation Plant to Chinquintirca
4 Scrapper Facilities
10 section valves
2 New pumping stations at Las Malvinas Plant close by to Derivation Point
Full System
•
2 new control rooms
20
21. Technical Considerations:
Energy Security
CAPEX Estimate
Energy Security Loop CAPEX Estimate
Estimated Total CAPEX : $981,000,000
Cost Breakout
Basic Engineering / Feed
Surveys
Detailed Engineering and Project Management
Materials - Line Pipe, Major Valves, etc.
Cost ($)
Excluded
8,000,000
42,000,000
370,000,000
Compression and Equipment
17,000,000
Controls : Field Instruments, Sub-Systems, Bulks, SCADA and RTU
19,000,000
Buildings
41,000,000
Construction Works
484,000,000
21
22. Technical Considerations:
Gasoducto Sur Peruano
Recommendation Schematic
Gasoducto Sur Peruano System
Km 211:
Chinquintirca
Compression Station
Arrival Pressure:
70 barg
32”
36”
Km 127:
Kepashiato Intermediate
Compression Station
to increase capacity to
1,500 MMCFD
Quillabamba:
50 MMscfd
32”
14”
URCOS
32”
Mollendo:
275 MMCFD
24”
32”
36”
Km 73:
Derivation Point
32”
36”
GSP Flow Rates
Km 0: Malvinas Plant
Capacity 2000 MMCFD
Discharge Pressure:
147 barg
MMCFD:
Inlet of system1
Quillabamba (Power)
Mollendo (Petrochemicals)
Mollendo (Power)
Ilo (Petrochemicals)
Ilo (Power)
: 500
: 50
: 50
: 175
: 50
: 175
Km762
24”
Ilo:
175 MMCFD
TgP existing NG Pipeline
NG new Security Pipeline
Gasoducto Sur Peruano
Note: 1) Design capacity is expected to be 10% above operating capacity
22
23. Technical Considerations:
Gasoducto Sur Peruano
Recommended Installations
Gasoducto Sur Peruano Overview – Recommended Option
Product
Natural Gas
Recommendation
•
•
•
•
•
32” from Point of Derivation from TGP/Energy Security to Mollendo Branch (Km762)
24” from Km 762 to the end of the pipeline at Ilo
9 Scrapper Facilities
27 section valves (blocking and bleeding stations)
8 branches: Quilibamba, Anta, Apurimac, Espinar, Juliaca /Puno, Arequipa, Mollendo,
Moquegua, Tacna
23
24. Technical Considerations:
Gasoducto Sur Peruano
CAPEX Estimate
Gasoducto Sur Peruano CAPEX Estimate
Estimated Total CAPEX : $2,463,000,000
Cost Breakout
Basic Engineering / Feed
Surveys
Cost ($)
Excluded
20,000,000
Detailed Engineering and Project Management
112,000,000
Materials - Line Pipe, Major Valves, etc.
882,000,000
Compression and Equipment
Not required
Controls : Field Instruments, Sub-Systems, Bulks, SCADA and RTU
62,000,000
Buildings
16,000,000
Construction Works
1,371,000,000
24
26. Key Contractual
Considerations
Issue
Discussion
•
•
•
Phase 2 will run from the Derivation Point to Chiquintirca.
• Pipelines Dimensions: 36-inch for natural gas; 24-inch natural gas liquids
Qualified Bidders have reasonable discretion regarding the pipeline route.
•
This 30-year Concession will be single Concession in two Segments.
•
Concession 2:
Gasoducto Sur
Peruano (GSP)
Phase 1 will run from the existing natural gas fields in the Malvinas to the
Derivation Point at or around KM 73 on the existing TGP pipeline system.
• Pipelines Dimensions: 36-inch for natural gas; 24-inch natural gas liquids
•
Concession 1:
Energy
Security
This 30-year Concession will be a single Concession in two Phases.
Segment a1 will run from the Derivation Point to roughly Urcos
• Pipelines Dimensions: 32-inch for natural gas
•
Segment a2 will run from Urcos south to Mollendo and Ilo
• Pipelines Dimensions: 24-inch for natural gas
•
Qualified Bidders have reasonable discretion regarding the pipeline route.
Questions?
26
27. Key Contractual
Considerations
Issue
Discussion
Questions?
•
•
Bidder
Selection
Minimum technical and financial criteria will be applied to pre-qualify Bidders
The winning bid will be selected based on the Total Cost of Service
•
MINEM and ProInversión propose some processes to help Winning Bidder
manage risks:
•
Cost of Service Adjustment Process
•
Right of Way Risk
•
Local Community Support Risk
27
28. Key Contractual
Considerations
Issue
Discussion
MINEM and ProInversión recognize it may be challenging for prospective Bidders to
estimate the cost of construction of the pipeline owing to the difficult terrain,
geotechnical and weather conditions. MINEM and ProInversión propose a process –
the Cost of Service Adjustment Process -- by which unexpected events and related
cost adjustments might be incorporated into the cost recovery system of the pipeline
system.
Questions?
Cost of Service
Adjustment
Process
If, during the course of the construction of the pipeline actual construction costs are
determined to be higher than those used to derive the Total Cost of Service, Winning
Bidder may petition to adjust the Total Cost of Service. This process would be used,
amongst other things, to address such issues as potential cost increases and schedule
delays owing to unexpected archaeological finds and the possible related need to reroute the pipeline.
A qualified and independent international engineering firm would review the
Adjustment Petition as quickly as is practical and, in conjunction with MINEM/
ProInversión, approve re-routing and related modifications in construction costs (and
overall Total Cost of Service) as well as potential modifications to the construction
schedule
Adjustments to the Total Cost of Service would be limited to 15%
28
29. Key Contractual
Considerations
Issue
Discussion
Questions?
MINEM/ProInversión recognizes that it is challenging for a Bidder to develop an
accurate estimate of the cost of acquiring Right of Way for the construction of the
pipeline without spending many months discussing ROW issues with the many
affected stakeholders in Peru. It is intent of MINEM/ProInversión to limit ROW cost
risk and make it easier to Bidders to estimate the overall cost of the pipeline project.
MINEM/ProInversión will do so in the following steps:
•
Right of Way
Cost Risk
•
•
•
•
MINEM/ProInversión will for each pipeline Concession, provide estimated ROW
costs
Bidder will bid to this estimated cost, such funds to ultimately be placed in escrow
from the Winning Bidder
If total ROW costs exceed the estimated ROW costs, such additional costs will be
paid by Bidder but will be added to the winning bid and will be recovered as part of
the overall cost recovery mechanism
If total ROW costs are less than estimated ROW costs, such difference will be
distributed to local communities along the route of the pipeline
It will still be the role of the Winning Bidder to negotiate ROW with appropriate
stakeholders in consultation with and with the support of MINEM/ProInversión
29
30. Key Contractual
Considerations
Issue
Discussion
Questions?
MINEM/ProInversión recognizes that the local Peruvian communities affected by the
construction of the pipeline could, in some cases, raise important issues and concerns
that could delay the construction of the pipeline. The government will provide a best
efforts attempt to facilitate the delivery of the environmental and construction permits
and to gain social acceptance of the project in the affected communities
Local
Community
Support
Possible delays in the construction of the pipeline system caused by lack of local
community support that lead higher costs will be managed through the Cost of Service
Adjustment Process
Possible delays in the construction of the pipeline system caused by lack of local
community support that make is impossible for the Winning Bidder to commission the
pipeline according to schedule will be considered a force majeure event
30
31. Project Background:
Recovery of Cost of Service:
Summary
Most costs recovered from
a “surcharge” on users
A combination of recovery mechanisms depending on the pipeline
segment
The revenue for the pipelines included in the Security Node will be
entirely recovered by the users of the TGP and GSP
As contracted volumes on
the pipelines increase, the
surcharge declines
Over time, conversion of the diesel-fired Energy Node to natural
gas as well as industrial development creates long-term contract
revenues, reducing the need for the surcharge
Mechanism of Guaranteed
Income
“Mechanism of Guaranteed Income” – Law 29970: Peruvian
government through this mechanism guarantees the investment
recovery in all trenches of the pipelines (natural gas and liquids)
Winning Bidder effectively
holds Peru economy risk
Ability to collect the surcharges and the tariffs from users
31
32. Contract consideration:
Remuneration system
There are three different systems that will work in these various concessions to
guarantee the payment to the winners of the projects
Energy Security and Gasoducto Sur Peruano Systems
Concession 2: GSP
Concession 1: Energy Security
Product Pipeline b and c
Payment – all liquids users
in the country
The tariff for the liquids
security loop is distributed
between all the liquids
users and is sufficient to
cover the cost of service of
the liquids product pipeline.
Gas Pipeline b and c
Gas Pipeline a1
Payment - all natural gas users in the country
Pipeline
Tariffs from
users
The tariff for the gas pipelines included in the energy
security is distributed between all the users of natural gas
and is sufficient to cover the difference between the cost of
service of the gas pipelines and the payment of the users of
the gas at Quillabamba.
Gas Pipeline a2
GRP
Pipeline Tariffs
from users
The GRP would
compensate for the
difference between the cost
of service of a2 and the
revenue generated from
the users of a2 (generators
and others).
32
33. Contract consideration:
Estimated Cost of Service
The Cost of Service accounts for Capex/Opex and the tax regime
Cost of service of the security pipelines (MM$)
Cost of service of the GSP (MM$)
1,166
3,005
760
406
Security
liquid loops
2,117
888
Security natural Security loops
gas loops
GSP
Segment a1
GSP
Segment a2
GSP Total
33
34. Contract consideration:
Remuneration system
INDICATIVE
Tariff System
Pipeline
Applicable
Tariff
Affected Consumers
Tariffs
Impact on enduser price
Product Pipeline b y c
Security
tariff
All liquids users in the
country
$1.1/bbl
2%
Security
tariff
All natural gas users in the
country
$0.5/kcf
9%
$1.2/kcf
N/A
$2.1/kcf
N/A
$1.2/kcf
N/A
$2.1/kcf
N/A
$0.13¢/kWh
2%
Gas Pipeline b y c
Regulated
Tariff
GRP Tariff
Gas Pipeline a1
Generator users of GSP –
segment a1
All other users of GSP –
segment a1
Generator users of GSP –
segment a2
All other users of GSP –
segment a2
All electricity users
TGP Tariff
Regulated
Tariff(GSP)
TGP Tariff
Gas Pipeline a2
It is assumed that all tariffs are adjusted based on IPP: “Finished Goods Less Food and Energy”
34
35. Project Description:
Timeline for the pipelines bidding
process
Activity
Oct
2013
Nov
Dec
Jan
2014
Feb
Mar
Apr
Roadshow Calgary
Roadshow Houston
Roadshow Lima
Consultation of the tender documents
Responses to the consultation
Qualification of participants
Communication to all the qualified
participants
Publication of the final version of the
contracts
Presentation of the legal, technical
and commercial proposal
Award of the contract
Contract closure
35
36. Project Description:
Timeline for the power plants
bidding process
Activity
Update to tender documents published
Consultation of the tender documents
Responses to the consultation
Pre-qualification of Participants and
timeline for establishment of consortiums
Communication to all the qualified
participants
Publication of the final version of the
contracts
Presentation of the legal, technical
and commercial proposal
Award of the contract
Contract closure
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
05. 12. 19. 26. 02. 09. 16. 23. 30. 07. 14. 21. 28. 04. 11. 18.
16/08/2013
17/09/2013
25/09/2013
15/10/2013
28/10/2013
30/10/2013
13/11/2013
15/11/2013
TBD
36