1. Human Capital Challenges in the 21st Century Lynn A. Karoly RAND 26 October 2011 BFE MENA Conference “Modernising Education to Create Tomorrow’s Workforce” Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

4. Presentation Draws on Several RAND Studies RAND Reports, Summaries, and Research Briefs available at www.rand.org Papers by Karoly and Gonzalez in volume published by Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research (ECSSR) (www.ecssr.ac.ae)

8. There Has Been Educational Upgrading Across Cohorts: Qatari Nationals SOURCE: : Qatar 2008 Labor Force Survey.

9. There Has Been Educational Upgrading Across Cohorts: Saudi Nationals SOURCE: : Saudi Arabia 2004 Census.

12. SOURCE: : World Bank World Development Indicators (2008). NOTE: Figures are as of 2007. Shortfalls in Secondary Enrollment, Especially for Boys

14. Gaps in Knowledge of Key Subjects, Especially for Boys: 4th Grade Science SOURCE: : 2007 TIMSS (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study).

15. SOURCE: : 2007 TIMSS (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study). Gaps in Knowledge of Key Subjects, Especially for Boys: 8th Grade Science

16. Gender Gaps Less Pronounced in Other MENA Countries: 8th Grade Science SOURCE: : 2007 TIMSS (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study).

18. Men Are Less Likely to Participate in Higher Education Than Women SOURCE: : World Bank World Development Indicators (2008). NOTE: Figures are as of 2007.

20. GCC Female University Graduates Are Less Likely to Major in S&T Fields SOURCE: : U.S. National Science Foundation (2008). NOTE: Figures are as of 2004.

21. … But Number of Female S&T Graduates Often Exceeds Number of Male Graduates SOURCE: : U.S. National Science Foundation (2008). NOTE: Figures are as of 2004.

23. Within Education Groups, GCC Women Are Generally Underrepresented in the Labor Force SOURCE: : Qatar 2008 Labor Force Survey and Saudi Arabia 2008 Labour Force Survey.

25. Unemployment Rates Are Higher for Women and Usually for More Educated LF Participants SOURCE: : Qatar 2008 Labor Force Survey and Saudi Arabia 2008 Labour Force Survey.

27. Returns to Schooling Are Lower for GCC Women and Nonnationals SOURCE: : Qatar 2008 Labor Force Survey and Saudi Arabia 2000 Employment and Wages Survey.

35. 2008 RAND Study Considered Several Types of Reforms for Four MENA Countries Education and Training Labor Market and Economy K–12 education Post-secondary education Training Labor market reforms Economic privatization Economic diversification

36. Broad-Based K–12 Reforms Were Under Way in Two of the Study Countries  Lebanon  Standards-based accountability  Participation in international assessments   Establishment of coordinating bodies   Integration of information technology   Training for teachers and administrators  National assessment and evaluation   Restructured curriculum    School organizational change U.A.E. Qatar Oman Reform Element

37. Higher Education Reforms Focused on Quality, Access, and Links to Labor Market  Establishment of coordinating bodies    Establishment of private higher education institutions (as part of theme cities)   Scholarship programs (for low-income students/in targeted fields and institutions)  University-based job placement program(s)   International accreditation of higher education programs  Administrative, curricular and academic standards reforms U.A.E Qatar Oman Reform Element

38. Training Reforms Generally Complemented Higher Education Reforms  Establishment of coordinating bodies    Establishment of technical/vocational colleges  Independent certification of post-secondary training institutes   Public-private partnerships to train nationals U.A.E Qatar Oman Reform Element

42. For Further Reading RAND Reports, Summaries, and Research Briefs available at www.rand.org Papers by Karoly and Gonzalez in volume published by Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research (ECSSR) (www.ecssr.ac.ae)

44. Labor Market Reforms Focus on Incentives to Increase Nationals in Private Sector    Quotas for employment of nationals in private sector  Rewards and sanctions for employment of nationals in targeted sectors    Equalization of worker rights or access to benefits in public and private sectors  Establishment of job placement/matching and training bureau  Elimination of automatic employment of nationals in public sector  Training and financial support to start new business U.A.E. Qatar Oman Reform Element

45. Other Reforms Aim to Diversify Economy, Expand Private Sector, Raise Public-Sector Efficiency Training and other supports for more efficient public administration  Establishment of free trade zones    Establishment of “free zones” exempt from government requirements   Allow foreign ownership of companies in selected sectors  Divestment of government-owned companies   Incentives to expand peripheral industries U.A.E. Qatar Oman Reform Element

46. Achievement Scores Advancing Over Time in Qatar: 15-Year-Olds SOURCE: : 2006 and 2009 PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment).

47. SOURCE: : 2006 and 2009 PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment). Achievement Scores for 15-Year-Olds Are Rising Over Time in Qatar

48. Gaps in Knowledge of Key Subjects, Especially for Boys: 4th Grade Science SOURCE: : 2007 TIMSS (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study).

49. Gaps in Knowledge of Key Subjects, Especially for Boys: 4th Grade Mathematics SOURCE: : 2007 TIMSS (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study).

50. Gaps in Knowledge of Key Subjects, Especially for Boys: 8th Grade Mathematics SOURCE: : 2007 TIMSS (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study).

51. Gaps in Knowledge of Key Subjects, Especially for Boys: 4th Grade Reading SOURCE: : 2006 PIRLS (Progress in International Reading Literacy Study).

54. Occupations Today Require More Nonroutine, Analytic, and Interactive Skills 1959 1969 1979 1989 1998 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Occupational Task Input Level Relative to 1959 (1959 = 0) Nonroutine cognitive/analytic Nonroutine cognitive/interactive Routine cognitive Routine manual Nonroutine manual Source: Autor, Levy, and Murnane (2002), Table 3.

56. Reforms Address Some but Not All Human Resource Challenges Disparities in living standards affect human capital development Brain drain diminished benefit of strong higher education sector + + + + + + + + Education and training system not preparing students well for workforce + + + Unemployment rates high among young, first-time workers + + + + + + Employment of nationals focused in government sector; private sector employment less attractive to nationals + + + Labor force made up mostly of non-nationals UAE Qatar Oman Lebanon Challenge

73. … And Patterns May Be Changing in Some GCC Countries SOURCE: : U.S. National Science Foundation (2010). NOTE: Figures are as of 2006.