INSTITUTEUrbanization and Spatial Connectivity in Ethiopia: Urban Growth Analysis Using GIS

Urbanization and Spatial
Connectivity in Ethiopia:
Urban Growth Analysis Using GIS

Mekamu Kedir and Emily Schmidt

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ETHIOPIA STRATEGY SUPPORT PROGRAM

Introduction
The Rural Urban Landscape in Ethiopia

• Of the estimated 73 million people living in Ethiopia (2007),
• 84% live in rural areas and with primarily income from agriculture
• 16% live in urban areas
• These are mostly located in the highland areas that comprise
approximately 35% of Ethiopia‟s territory

• Urbanization rates differ according to methodologies and the database utilized:
• United Nations: 14.9% urban
• World Development Report:10.9% urban
• Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia: 16% urban
• By comparison, the SSA average is 30% urban

• Ethiopia‟s non-agricultural sectors are also small relative to other countries in
SSA
• In 2006/07 output of non-agricultural sectors contributed 54 % to GDP
• Non-agricultural sectors contributed 85 percent to GDP in SSA (and 75
percent of GDP in low income countries in SSA)


Introduction
• The Central Statistical Agency defines urban areas as:
• Localities greater than 2000 inhabitants
• Administrative capitals of regions, zones, and woredas
• Localities with at least 1000 people doing non-agricultural
activities, and / or areas where the administrative official declares
the locality to be urban

• Given these definitions, urban areas do not remain
constant between census years

• With this study we provide a consistent definition of urban
areas which can be compared over time, across countries
and within national boundaries


Introduction
• In order to standardize urbanization measurements, we use
methodology developed by Uchida and Nelson (2009) which
incorporates a series of GIS data and analyses including:
• Travel time rasters,
• Population density
• Proximity to cities greater than 50,000

• We identify urban areas spatially using specific thresholds:
• A population density greater than 150 people per km2;
• Populations located within 1 hour travel time to a city of at
least 50,000 people.
• City centers of at least 50,000 people


Data and Methods
This study uses:

• GIS road network data from each Ethiopian census year
(1984,1994,2007)

• Population data from each Ethiopian census year

• Population density grids:
• Landscan
• GRUMP (Global Rural and Urban Mapping Project,
Columbia University)

• Other biophysical data to create a travel time grid:
• land cover, rivers, water bodies and elevation and slope


Data and Methods
In order to measure travel time to a major city:

Estimation of Travel Times
• A series of GIS layers are merged into a „friction layer‟
which represents the time required to cross each pixel
• Road type and class
• Paved – all weather
• Paved – dry weather
• Gravel – all weather
• Gravel – dry weather
• Earth
• Waterbodies
• Landcover
• Slope


Data and Methods: data reclassification

Road network
Slope

Land cover and lakes
Rivers

Cities


Data and Methods
Travel time

This friction layer is then used as an input into the “Cost
Distance” function in ArcGIS 9.2 in order to compute the
travel time in minutes from each pixel to the nearest
designated populated place.

In our study we analyzed travel time to cities of 50,000
people or more.

Road investments in Ethiopia greatly reduced travel time
between 1984 and 2007, especially in the highlands


Travel time 1984


Travel time 1994


Travel time 2007


Data and Methods
Agglomeration Index
Once travel time is calculated to each major city for each
census year, we are able to incorporate the cost distance
raster into an agglomeration index measurement:

Urban population is determined using the criteria:
• Within an area of a population density of at least 150
people per square kilometer (calculated GRUMP and
LandScan population density grids and adjusting for
population growth
• Within a city of 50,000 people or within one hour travel
time to a city of at least 50,000 people


Data and Methods: Population Density
GRUMP population density grid
GRUMP (Global Rural-
Urban Mapping Project)
human settlement data is
available and applying UN
growth rates, population
was estimated for 2000


LandScan population density grid
LandScan estimates the
large area population
density and spatially
allocates these data to key
infrastructure while
controlling for topography


Average of GRUMP and LandScan
Following the Uchida
and Nelson (2008)
methodology, we
average the population
density grids for
GRUMP and
Landscan in order to
take into account
specific features such
as urban areas and
road infrastructure.


Results
Agglomeration Index 1984
In 1984, Addis Ababa and other
larger cities were primarily
confined to its city administrative
boundaries.

There were only a few cities with
greater than 50,000 people

Limited road networks and more
dispersed population characterized
the demographic landscape.


Results
Agglomeration Index 1994
By 1994, Ethiopia‟s cities grew, and
the country‟s transportation network
expanded

Urban corridors were formed
between Sebeta in the southwest
and Bishoftu to the southeast, linking
to Nazareth

Population growth and improved
transportation infrastructure in
Shashamene and Awasa also
facilitated linkages to form an urban
network between Oromia and SNNP
regions.


Results
By 2007, urban linkages were Agglomeration Index 2007
clearly visible throughout Oromia,
SNNP, and Amhara regions.

Addis Ababa expanded to connect
Sebeta and Bishoftu, and Asela in
the South.

Addis Ababa also connected to
Ambo in the west, and Debre
Berhan in the east

Hosaena linked to Sodo and
Shashamene

Linkages between Arba Minch and
Sodo were also forming

Jimma had grown into a
southwestern hub with opportunities
to link with Nekemte toPOLICYnorth. INSTITUTE
INTERNATIONAL FOOD the RESEARCH • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Results
• Since the previous census in 1994, new cities have been created, and
economically viable cities have experienced large growth in population
count and density
• Given that growth in the number of cities with at least 50,000 people mainly
occurred in the four major regions, we find that increased urbanization rates
are primarily confined to these regions
• The city administrative areas, of Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa, as well as
Harari, a small urban region, experienced the greatest urbanization from
1984 to 1994.
• From 1994 to 2007, Addis Ababa and other urban areas expanded
significantly into other regions.
• Given improved travel time between major cities, as well as increased
population density on these corridors, urban areas in Ethiopia look more
like networks in 2007 than the isolated communities typical of the 1984
urban landscape


Results
Larger cities have emerged over the 3 census years, especially
in Oromia, Amhara and SNNP regions
Number of cities over 20 and 50 thousand people during the census years
Cities in 1984* Cities in 1994 Cities in 2007
Region Over 20,000 Over 50,000 Over 20,000 Over 50,000 Over 20,000 Over 50,000
Tigray 1 1 5 1 10 3
Oromia 7 3 17 4 32 8
Amhara 5 3 7 3 18 7
SNNP 4 0 7 1 18 5
Gambella 0 0 0 0 1 0
Benishangul - 0 0 0 0 1 0
Gumuz
Harari 1 1 1 1 1 1
Dire Dawa 1 1 1 1 1 1
Addis Ababa 1 1 1 1 1 1
Somali 1 0 4 1 5 1
Afar 0 0 0 0 0 0


Results
Table 1: Agglomeration Index – Percent of people considered urban by region
Total Population Percentage Total Population Percentage Total Population Percentage
(thousands) Urban (thousands) Urban (thousands) Urban
Regions 1984 1994 2007
Addis Ababa 1,423 61.2 2,113 85.5 2,738 99.3
Afar 780 - 1,061 - 1,411 -
Amhara 10,686 2.0 13,834 3.7 17,214 7.5
Benishangul-Gumuz 351 - 460 - 671 -

Dire Dawa 158 20.3 252 58.2 343 66.3
Gambella 172 - 182 - 307 -
Harari 82 55.2 131 76.2 183 86.0
Oromia 14,016 1.7 18,733 4.6 27,158 9.2
SNNP 7,501 - 10,377 2.2 15,043 21.1
Somali 2,006 0.2 3,199 1.6 4,439 1.9
Tigray 2,692 2.0 3,136 3.8 4,314 8.0
Ethiopia 39,869 3.7 53,477 7.1 73,919 14.2

• Addis Ababa (24%), Dire Dawa (38%) and Harari (21%) experienced the greatest
urbanization from 1984 to 1994
• From1994 to 2007 the change in urban share was less than the previous decade for Addis
Ababa (14 %), Dire Dawa (8%) and Harari (10%)
• All other regions experienced greater urbanization from 1994 to 2007

Population density and urban growth in 1994

Limited
urbanization (2.2%)
is present in SNNP
region in 1994


Population density and urban growth in 2007

City growth, as well
as more networked
infrastructure
increased
urbanization rates
in SNNP almost
20%


Results
Percent population connected to a city of at least 50,000 people in 1994
Region Access < 1 Access 1-3 Access 3 - 5 Access 5 - 10 Access > 10
hour hours hours hours hours
Tigray 3.7 3.4 16.2 47.7 29.0
Afar - - - 5.6 94.4
Amhara 2.8 8.0 18.1 44.5 26.6
Oromia 5.3 7.7 20.6 36.7 29.8
Somali 8.0 - - 11.0 81.1
Benishangul-Gumuz - - - 11.2 88.8
SNNP 3.4 7.3 26.9 39.6 22.9
Gambella - - - - 100
Harari 100 - - - -
Addis Ababa 100 - - - -
Dire Dawa 100 - - - -
Ethiopia 8.4 6.4 18.2 36.0 31.0

• In 1994, all of the inhabitants in Gambella region were more than 10 hours travel time to a city
of at least 50,000 people
• Overall, 31% of the population in Ethiopia was more than 10 hours away from a major city
• In the four main regions, more than 50% of the population was over 5 hours travel time from a
city

Results
Travel Time: Percent point change in access to a city from 1994 to 2007
Region Access < 1 Access 1 - 3 Access 3 - 5 Access 5 -10 Access > 10
hour hours hours hours hours

Tigray 7.13 12.01 (3.72) 5.98 (21.39)
Afar - - - 4.11 (5.89)
Amhara 2.23 14.68 18.94 (12.49) (23.35)
Oromia 3.74 10.40 15.84 (8.88) (21.10)
Somali - - - 2.62 (2.61)
Benishangul-Gumuz - - - 17.91 (17.91)
SNNP 9.17 45.37 (14.59) (21.56) (18.39)
Gambella - - - - -
Harari - - - - -
Addis Ababa - - - - -
Dire Dawa - - - - -
Ethiopia 4.10 17.12 7.54 (9.93) (18.83)

• No improvement was experience in Gambella region between 1994 and 2007
• Population over 10 hours in the main four regions improved by at least 18%
• Only 2.6INTERNATIONAL the population in Somali region decreased travel time to INSTITUTE10 hours
percent of FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE • ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH under
over the 13 year period.

Results
Difference in travel time to a city of at least 50,000 between 1994 and 2007

New gravel roads built between Kebri
Dehar and Gode; and Harar and Imi
eased access constraints in Somali
region considerably.

Although access has improved
considerably, populations remain very
remote (78 percent of the population
in Somali region is still further than 10
hours from a major city).

Extended evaluation of nascent
corridors between Jijiga and Kebri
Dehar, and between Harar – Imi –
Gode, could be undertaken to
understand the tradeoffs of investing
in these areas


Conclusions
• Ethiopia has placed a primary emphasis on rural and agricultural
led development; nonetheless, the country continues to urbanize
and agglomeration economies are beginning to link and form
corridors of economic growth.
• Improved transport within Ethiopia has facilitated greater mobility
of capital, goods, and people, and incentivized population
clustering along major transportation routes
• Improvements in road infrastructure between large cities, as well
as increases in population density along these corridors, have
increased urbanization rates (agglomeration indices) from 3.7 to
14 percent over the last 2 decades
• This dramatic transformation in the economic landscape is likely
to continue, with important implications for future economic
growth and public investments in infrastructure.


INSTITUTEUrbanization and Spatial Connectivity in Ethiopia: Urban Growth Analysis Using GIS

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INSTITUTEUrbanization and Spatial Connectivity in Ethiopia: Urban Growth Analysis Using GIS