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Fad or Future - What Do Virtual Worlds Have to Offer? Dr. Robin Teigland Stockholm School of Economics [email_address] www.knowledgenetworking.org  Second Life & Virtual Worlds  November 2007
Today’s discussion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Today’s discussion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A world of rapidly growing knowledge …. > A person’s lifetime 18th century One week 2007 Fischbowl 2007
…that becomes quickly outdated …. 50% knowledge relevant 50% knowledge outdated First year of technical-based education Third year of education
..making it more difficult to keep up Growth Time Output of information and knowledge Human  absorptive capacity Junks 1989
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],networks. Lévy 1997
Numerous networking possibilities!
Today’s discussion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What are real world companies  doing in Second Life? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“Catalogue” sales  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Product development ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Recruiting Job Fairs
Springtime   Training with avatars from Shanghai, Beijing, Stockholm, and Gotland Internal communications
In-house training and education IFL at SSE and Duke Corporate Education Co-developing and running virtual team building exercise
But, is anybody out there? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],BMW In-world Wells Fargo, Starwood Hotels, American Apparel are pulling out
Critical mass is restricted due to technology * Municipality (kommun) wikipedia.org 1,391 138 195,250 Richmond, VA 1,479 0.06 98 Online, Mon, Sep 3 8:15 pm (GMT+1) Freebie Planet #1 popular site 10,316 786 8,143,000 New York 24,759 87 2,153,600 Paris 1,083 450 489,760 Gothenburg* 4,164 188 782,890 Stockholm* Density  (people per km 2) Land area (km 2) Population Location
And is anyone making money? What are these  individuals  selling? Real estate & land rentals Simulation & training environments, games Clothing, accessories, skins, animations Art, design, furniture SL, Sept 3, 2007 Total of  424  >$5000 $2000-5000
What about Return on Investment in SL? We have a  long-term approach  to costs and RoI. We have qualitative goals, to expand and develop our presence. - BMW  We have  no targets  for RoI.  -ABN Amro There needs to be some RoI eventually, but this is a long-term project and we are just looking at the  potential . - Vodafone  Financial Times , May 2007
So, what do people do? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],SL, Sept 3, 2007
What can we do that we “ cannot”  do in real life?
Improving skills Learning to sail  with the Starboards Yacht Club
Training for natural disasters A tsunami simulator by  National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration
Collaborating and co-creating Open source museum  with open source art
Experiencing the “impossible” UC Davis Medical Center has simulated schizofrenia
What is happening in other virtual worlds?
Secure virtual workplaces ,[object Object],[object Object]
Disney pays $350 mln for Club Penguin  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],paidcontent.org
Cyworld - A world where  “MySpace meets Second Life” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Computer Sweden , June 2007
Entropia Universe = MMOG + MMORP? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Financial Times , June 2007
MMOGs still dominate ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Xfire.com, MMPORG.com, June 2007 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Where are we  today  with virtual worlds? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Today’s discussion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
So, what about the future of virtual worlds?
Gartner Group, April 2007 By the end of 2011, 80% of active Internet users (and Fortune 500 enterprises) will have a “second life”, but not necessarily in Second Life.
How can we look into the future? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Two underlying questions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Four scenarios for 2012 Fragmentated worlds Integrated worlds Advanced usage Less- advanced usage ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What should you do in virtual worlds? Experiment, “play”, and learn Stay on the look-out Consider creating independent operations Don’t forget other emerging media
“ I think there’s a world market for maybe five computers.” Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943 “ There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, President, Chairman and Founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977 “ Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” Lord Kelvin, President, Royal Society, 1895
We digitized audio and video, why can’t we just digitize,  you know, Earth”  Philip Rosedale, CEO Linden Lab
Further information ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Appendix
An increasingly connected world new friends family local colleagues old friends old colleagues colleagues at other offices Just a click away… virtual communities  local communities old classmates
The number of unique users in Second Life has increased exponentially within one year SL, September 3, 2007
Who’s in world in Second Life? Number of active avatars SL, September 3, 2007 Sweden is #17
US avatars spend the most hours in world  SL, September 3, 2007 Total number of hours in world Sweden is #17
25-34 year olds spend most time in world SL, September 3, 2007 Total number  of hours  in world ~40% Female
“ We think it has potential as a way of doing business. We’re just experimenting with it ourselves but we see massive potential in the human interaction you can bring. It’s a big browsing environment in many ways.” - IBM Director
Is there critical mass on Second Life? * Municipality (kommun) wikipedia.org 43 988 42,060 Motala* 63 712 44,750 Online, Mon, Sep 3 8:35 pm (GMT+1) Second Life 177 41,284 7,252,330 Switzerland Density  (people per km 2) Land area (km 2) Population Location
Toyota educates teenagers on credit
Marketing and sales ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Man-made disasters
Are businesses anywhere else? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
MyCoke
External communities are growing in importance! Online communities Schoolmates Avatars Previous work  colleagues Large portion of new ideas and formal collaboration relationships come from external contacts Organization Physical Networks
Encourage an open innovation attitude Not all the smart people work for us.  We need to work with smart people inside and outside the company. The smart people in our field work for us. If you create the most and the best ideas in the industry, you will win. If you make the best use of internal and external ideas, you will win. Closed attitude Open attitude Chesborough 2003
The wisdom of crowds (Surowiecki 2004)  Closed Expensive Complex Accurate Open Inexpensive Simple Close enough Hinton 2007
Crowdsourcing:  Capturing the wisdom of crowds ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Brayrie 2007
What can organizations do? Innovation Product development Content generation Decision making Funding Sales & marketing Distribution Brayrie 2007
Innovations - www.innocentive.com
Problem solutions - The Goldcorp Challenge
Decision making & funding Brayrie 2007
Product development - www.ideastorm.com Brayrie 2007
Building the Dell community Brayrie 2007
Communities A driving force in crowdsourcing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What should you do? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Christenson 1997, Tapscott & Williams 2006
What should you do? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
All the things right,  but  not the right thing!
Increasing pace of change! Spread of Technology (Penetration rates years after introduction, Year I =Year Invented)

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Second Life & Virtual Worlds Kbm Teigland

  • 1. Fad or Future - What Do Virtual Worlds Have to Offer? Dr. Robin Teigland Stockholm School of Economics [email_address] www.knowledgenetworking.org Second Life & Virtual Worlds November 2007
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. A world of rapidly growing knowledge …. > A person’s lifetime 18th century One week 2007 Fischbowl 2007
  • 5. …that becomes quickly outdated …. 50% knowledge relevant 50% knowledge outdated First year of technical-based education Third year of education
  • 6. ..making it more difficult to keep up Growth Time Output of information and knowledge Human absorptive capacity Junks 1989
  • 7.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 14. Springtime Training with avatars from Shanghai, Beijing, Stockholm, and Gotland Internal communications
  • 15. In-house training and education IFL at SSE and Duke Corporate Education Co-developing and running virtual team building exercise
  • 16.
  • 17. Critical mass is restricted due to technology * Municipality (kommun) wikipedia.org 1,391 138 195,250 Richmond, VA 1,479 0.06 98 Online, Mon, Sep 3 8:15 pm (GMT+1) Freebie Planet #1 popular site 10,316 786 8,143,000 New York 24,759 87 2,153,600 Paris 1,083 450 489,760 Gothenburg* 4,164 188 782,890 Stockholm* Density (people per km 2) Land area (km 2) Population Location
  • 18. And is anyone making money? What are these individuals selling? Real estate & land rentals Simulation & training environments, games Clothing, accessories, skins, animations Art, design, furniture SL, Sept 3, 2007 Total of 424 >$5000 $2000-5000
  • 19. What about Return on Investment in SL? We have a long-term approach to costs and RoI. We have qualitative goals, to expand and develop our presence. - BMW We have no targets for RoI. -ABN Amro There needs to be some RoI eventually, but this is a long-term project and we are just looking at the potential . - Vodafone Financial Times , May 2007
  • 20.
  • 21. What can we do that we “ cannot” do in real life?
  • 22. Improving skills Learning to sail with the Starboards Yacht Club
  • 23. Training for natural disasters A tsunami simulator by National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration
  • 24. Collaborating and co-creating Open source museum with open source art
  • 25. Experiencing the “impossible” UC Davis Medical Center has simulated schizofrenia
  • 26. What is happening in other virtual worlds?
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34. So, what about the future of virtual worlds?
  • 35. Gartner Group, April 2007 By the end of 2011, 80% of active Internet users (and Fortune 500 enterprises) will have a “second life”, but not necessarily in Second Life.
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39. What should you do in virtual worlds? Experiment, “play”, and learn Stay on the look-out Consider creating independent operations Don’t forget other emerging media
  • 40. “ I think there’s a world market for maybe five computers.” Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943 “ There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, President, Chairman and Founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977 “ Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” Lord Kelvin, President, Royal Society, 1895
  • 41. We digitized audio and video, why can’t we just digitize, you know, Earth” Philip Rosedale, CEO Linden Lab
  • 42.
  • 44. An increasingly connected world new friends family local colleagues old friends old colleagues colleagues at other offices Just a click away… virtual communities local communities old classmates
  • 45. The number of unique users in Second Life has increased exponentially within one year SL, September 3, 2007
  • 46. Who’s in world in Second Life? Number of active avatars SL, September 3, 2007 Sweden is #17
  • 47. US avatars spend the most hours in world SL, September 3, 2007 Total number of hours in world Sweden is #17
  • 48. 25-34 year olds spend most time in world SL, September 3, 2007 Total number of hours in world ~40% Female
  • 49. “ We think it has potential as a way of doing business. We’re just experimenting with it ourselves but we see massive potential in the human interaction you can bring. It’s a big browsing environment in many ways.” - IBM Director
  • 50. Is there critical mass on Second Life? * Municipality (kommun) wikipedia.org 43 988 42,060 Motala* 63 712 44,750 Online, Mon, Sep 3 8:35 pm (GMT+1) Second Life 177 41,284 7,252,330 Switzerland Density (people per km 2) Land area (km 2) Population Location
  • 52.
  • 54.
  • 56. External communities are growing in importance! Online communities Schoolmates Avatars Previous work colleagues Large portion of new ideas and formal collaboration relationships come from external contacts Organization Physical Networks
  • 57. Encourage an open innovation attitude Not all the smart people work for us. We need to work with smart people inside and outside the company. The smart people in our field work for us. If you create the most and the best ideas in the industry, you will win. If you make the best use of internal and external ideas, you will win. Closed attitude Open attitude Chesborough 2003
  • 58. The wisdom of crowds (Surowiecki 2004) Closed Expensive Complex Accurate Open Inexpensive Simple Close enough Hinton 2007
  • 59.
  • 60. What can organizations do? Innovation Product development Content generation Decision making Funding Sales & marketing Distribution Brayrie 2007
  • 62. Problem solutions - The Goldcorp Challenge
  • 63. Decision making & funding Brayrie 2007
  • 64. Product development - www.ideastorm.com Brayrie 2007
  • 65. Building the Dell community Brayrie 2007
  • 66.
  • 67.
  • 68.
  • 69. All the things right, but not the right thing!
  • 70. Increasing pace of change! Spread of Technology (Penetration rates years after introduction, Year I =Year Invented)