Palestra sobre Cenários Econômicos Globais realizada por José Antonio Ardavin (Diretor do OECD para a América Latina) na ExpoGestão 2010.

1. Global Economic Perspectives
From crisis to recovery
Discussion on Prof. Edward Prescott ‘s Keynote Participation
José Antonio Ardavín, OCDE
Head of the OECD Mexico Centre for Latin America
Expo Gestao
Joinville, Santa Catarina, Brazil| 21 may 2010

2. The economic outlook has changed
dramatically in a couple of weeks
What were the perspectives in April 2010?

3. A recovery underway…
(1) Financial conditions had improved markedly
Note: A unit decline in the index implies a tightening in financial conditions sufficient to produce an average reduction in the level of GDP by 1/2 to
1% after four to six quarters. See details in Guichard et al. (2009).
Source: Datastream; and OECD calculations.

4. (2) Industrial production is bouncing back strongly
in emerging-market economies…
Year-on-year percentage changes
Note: Data for China are OECD estimates. Seasonally adjusted series for Brazil and China.
Source: Datastream.

5. …significantly “pulling” the rebound in global trade
1. Balance of respondents reporting an increase and a decrease in export orders.
Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicator database; and OECD calculations.

6. (3) Industrial production bouncing back strongly
in major OECD countries
Year-on-year percentage changes
Source: Datastream.

7. …and importantly, a significant rebound in business
confidence
Purchasing Managers’ Index
Note: Purchasing Managers' Index: summary composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indices for five of the manufacturing
survey indicators.
Source: Markit Economics Limited; and OECD, Quarterly National Accounts database.

8. contexto internacional
In sum: with varied speed and intensity, a road
towards recovery
Annualised quarter-on-quarter growth1
09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2
United States -6.4 -0.7 2.2 5.6 2.4 (+/-1.6) 2.3 (+/-1.4)
Japan -13.6 6.1 -0.5 3.8 1.1 (+/-2.5) 2.3 (+/-2.7)
Euro 32 -10.1 0.7 2.0 0.4 0.9 (+/-1.4) 1.9 (+/-1.5)
Germany -13.4 1.8 2.9 0.0 -0.4 (+/-1.8) 2.8 (+/-1.8)
France -5.3 1.4 0.7 2.4 2.3 (+/-0.9) 1.7 (+/-1.1)
Italy -10.4 -1.9 2.1 -1.3 1.2 (+/-1.4) 0.5 (+/-1.6)
UK -10.0 -2.7 -1.1 1.8 2.0 (+/-1.1) 3.1 (+/-1.2)
Canada -7.0 -3.5 0.9 5.0 6.2 (+/-1.0) 4.5 (+/-2.0)
G7 -8.8 0.4 1.4 3.7 1.9 (+/-1.5) 2.3 (+/-1.7)
1. Based on GDP releases and high-frequency indicators published by 2 April 2010. Seasonally and in some cases also working-day
adjusted. The error ranges (in parentheses) associated with the point estimates reflect the differences between model-based projections
and outcomes during 2003-07 using the latest available vintage of GDP and indicator data.
2. The average of the three largest countries in the euro area (Germany, France and Italy).

9. …Nonetheless, a number of risks and challenges
were pointed out since then by the OECD:
(1) a new pattern of global imbalances emerging?
Current account balance, in per cent of GDP
Source: OECD, Quarterly National Accounts database; and OECD, Main Economic Indicators database.

10. …(2) plus fiscal disbalances!!
General government balance, in per cent of GDP
Note: Government balance for 2009 is an estimate for some countries. Countries are ranked according to the government balance in 2009.
1. Mainland Norway only.
Source: OECD, System of National Accounts database; and OECD Economic Outlook 86 database.

11. … y (3) plus, perdurable social effects of the crisis,
with unemployment rates peaking in some countries
Actual unemployment rate, in per cent of the labour force
Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicators database; and OECD Economic Outlook 86 database.

12. For Latin America, the main channel of transmission was
the real economy
Fuente: OCDE Estudio Económico de México 2009

13. How is that scenario different in May 2010?

14. The recent crisis in the Euro Zone is simply another
manifestation of the global financial crisis.
In very broad terms both crises are about too much
leverage: in the private sector first and now in the
government sector.
The first leg of the crisis saw private debt insolvency
dealt with by transferring much of it onto the public
balance sheet.
With public solvency now being questioned by the
markets, the room to keep putting things onto the
“pay later” bill has diminished.

15. The new developments in Greece (and Europe) will very
probably have an additional impact on the
perspectives of Latin America
1. Financial markets shift towards risk aversion in the
forthcomming years
2. The euro will not recover its strenght soon. Euro
depreciation erodes competitiveness of Latin
American products in Europe, particularly from
Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay
3. Slower growth in Europe will reduce demand for
commodities and possible even US growth
perspectives, with direct/indirect additional effects to
Latin America

16. On the other hand…
When the most advanced cars are in pitts… it is a good
opportunity for those going behind to catch up.
This is a moment of economic history that will be
remembered by significant catch up of the developing
world with respect to the advanced economies
Economic growth will be powered by vibrant regions

17. Next week the OECD to release its updated
Global Economic Outlook
www.oecd.org
www.oecd.org/latinamerica
www.oecd.org/brazil