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Start Stop Logistics


                       1
The Logistics Landscape is Changing

 Instability in Global Supply Chains which have
  become more Demand Driven

 Capacity Shortage across the Supply Chain

 Slow Steaming on Major Deep Sea Routes

 Government Regulations and Punitive Measures for
  Road Transport leading to Increased Demand for
  Rail and Barge Transport

                                                     2
Start Stop Logistics

                                  Weekly Volatility - Beer Segment

  140



  120



  100



  80



  60



  40



  20
                                                                                                                       Actual
                                                                                                                       Forecast
   0
                        11

                             13

                                  15

                                       17

                                            19

                                                 21

                                                      23

                                                           25

                                                                27

                                                                     29

                                                                          31

                                                                               33

                                                                                    35

                                                                                         37

                                                                                              39

                                                                                                   41

                                                                                                        43

                                                                                                             45

                                                                                                                  47

                                                                                                                       49

                                                                                                                            51
    1

        3

            5

                7

                    9




                                                                                                                                  3
Start Stop Logistics

                                  Weekly Volatility - Wine Segment

  120



  100



  80



  60



  40



  20
                                                                                                                        Actual
                                                                                                                        Forecast

   0
                        11

                             13

                                  15

                                       17

                                            19

                                                 21

                                                      23

                                                           25

                                                                27

                                                                     29

                                                                          31

                                                                               33

                                                                                    35

                                                                                         37

                                                                                              39

                                                                                                   41

                                                                                                        43

                                                                                                             45

                                                                                                                  47

                                                                                                                       49

                                                                                                                            51
    1

        3

            5

                7

                    9




                                                                                                                                   4
Start Stop Logistics

                                  Weekly Volatility - Food Segment

  250




  200




  150




  100




  50
                                                                                                                       Actual
                                                                                                                       Forecast

   0
                        11

                             13

                                  15

                                       17

                                            19

                                                 21

                                                      23

                                                           25

                                                                27

                                                                     29

                                                                          31

                                                                               33

                                                                                    35

                                                                                         37

                                                                                              39

                                                                                                   41

                                                                                                        43

                                                                                                             45

                                                                                                                  47

                                                                                                                       49

                                                                                                                            51
    1

        3

            5

                7

                    9




                                                                                                                                  5
Start Stop Logistics

                            Weekly Volatility - Toilet Paper Segment

  30



  25



  20



  15



  10



  5
                                                                                                                       Actual
                                                                                                                       Forecast
  0
                       11

                            13

                                 15

                                      17

                                           19

                                                21

                                                     23

                                                          25

                                                               27

                                                                    29

                                                                         31

                                                                              33

                                                                                   35

                                                                                        37

                                                                                             39

                                                                                                  41

                                                                                                       43

                                                                                                            45

                                                                                                                 47

                                                                                                                      49

                                                                                                                           51
   1

       3

           5

               7

                   9




                                                                                                                                  6
Start Stop Logistics

                                 Weekly Volatility - Chemical Segment

  70



  60



  50



  40



  30



  20



  10
                                                                                                                        Actual
                                                                                                                        Forecast
  0
                       11

                            13

                                  15

                                       17

                                            19

                                                 21

                                                      23

                                                           25

                                                                27

                                                                     29

                                                                          31

                                                                               33

                                                                                    35

                                                                                         37

                                                                                              39

                                                                                                   41

                                                                                                        43

                                                                                                             45

                                                                                                                  47

                                                                                                                       49

                                                                                                                            51
   1

       3

           5

               7

                   9




                                                                                                                                   7
Start Stop Logistics

                             Weekly Volatility - Total across Segments

  500

  450

  400

  350

  300

  250

  200

  150

  100

                                                                                                                         Actual
  50
                                                                                                                         Forecast
   0
                        11

                              13

                                   15

                                        17

                                             19

                                                  21

                                                       23

                                                            25

                                                                 27

                                                                      29

                                                                           31

                                                                                33

                                                                                     35

                                                                                          37

                                                                                               39

                                                                                                    41

                                                                                                         43

                                                                                                              45

                                                                                                                   47

                                                                                                                        49

                                                                                                                             51
    1

        3

            5

                7

                    9




                                                                                                                                    8
Multimodal / Short Sea


 Short
 Sea                     Rail




Barge                    Road


                                9
Making Procurement an Art

 Hiring Container Ships
 Leasing Containers
 Haulage Capacity
 Barge Capacity
 Rail Capacity
 Stevedoring Arrangements
 Bunkers / Bunkers Hedging
 Currency Hedging

Balancing Risk and Opportunity
                                 10
Contract Management


                      11
Back2Back
Contract Management

                      12
Opportunities to Balance Risks

 Clear Communication of Trading Conditions
 Service Level Agreements including Daily/Weekly
   Fluctuations
 High Understanding of Customer's Operational
  Requirements
 Escape Clauses

 Prioritise Legal Contracts

 Complex Supply Chains need operationally minded
  Commercial People
 Reciprocal Carrot and Stick Arrangements


                                                    13
Contract Management

 Reduced Profits

 Increasing Competition


 Less Resources


 Less Time


 Increasing Customer Demands



Have you ever thought about cutting a Corner ?

                                                 14
DON’ T !
HAVE THE GUTS TO SAY NO !


                            15
Conclusion

 Manufactures and Retailers have become more Risk adverse vis a vis
  Inventory Management

 Start Stop Logistics will increase weekly and daily Fluctuations

 Visibility and Agility will improve but at a Cost

 Both Customers and Service Providers will need to invest in additional
   Resources for the Forecasting Process
 The current Situation where Service Providers take most of the Risk is not
   Sustainable in the middle to long Term
 3PL/4PL Providers can take advantage but need to improve
   Communication and Risk and Reward Sharing with the Asset Providers
                                                                               16
17
Start Stop Logistics


                       18
19

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Peder Winther from Samskip; 'Thrive in an Era of Fluctuating Rates and Insecure Capacity'

  • 2. The Logistics Landscape is Changing  Instability in Global Supply Chains which have become more Demand Driven  Capacity Shortage across the Supply Chain  Slow Steaming on Major Deep Sea Routes  Government Regulations and Punitive Measures for Road Transport leading to Increased Demand for Rail and Barge Transport 2
  • 3. Start Stop Logistics Weekly Volatility - Beer Segment 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Actual Forecast 0 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 1 3 5 7 9 3
  • 4. Start Stop Logistics Weekly Volatility - Wine Segment 120 100 80 60 40 20 Actual Forecast 0 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 1 3 5 7 9 4
  • 5. Start Stop Logistics Weekly Volatility - Food Segment 250 200 150 100 50 Actual Forecast 0 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 1 3 5 7 9 5
  • 6. Start Stop Logistics Weekly Volatility - Toilet Paper Segment 30 25 20 15 10 5 Actual Forecast 0 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 1 3 5 7 9 6
  • 7. Start Stop Logistics Weekly Volatility - Chemical Segment 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Actual Forecast 0 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 1 3 5 7 9 7
  • 8. Start Stop Logistics Weekly Volatility - Total across Segments 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 Actual 50 Forecast 0 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 1 3 5 7 9 8
  • 9. Multimodal / Short Sea Short Sea Rail Barge Road 9
  • 10. Making Procurement an Art  Hiring Container Ships  Leasing Containers  Haulage Capacity  Barge Capacity  Rail Capacity  Stevedoring Arrangements  Bunkers / Bunkers Hedging  Currency Hedging Balancing Risk and Opportunity 10
  • 13. Opportunities to Balance Risks  Clear Communication of Trading Conditions  Service Level Agreements including Daily/Weekly Fluctuations  High Understanding of Customer's Operational Requirements  Escape Clauses  Prioritise Legal Contracts  Complex Supply Chains need operationally minded Commercial People  Reciprocal Carrot and Stick Arrangements 13
  • 14. Contract Management  Reduced Profits  Increasing Competition  Less Resources  Less Time  Increasing Customer Demands Have you ever thought about cutting a Corner ? 14
  • 15. DON’ T ! HAVE THE GUTS TO SAY NO ! 15
  • 16. Conclusion  Manufactures and Retailers have become more Risk adverse vis a vis Inventory Management  Start Stop Logistics will increase weekly and daily Fluctuations  Visibility and Agility will improve but at a Cost  Both Customers and Service Providers will need to invest in additional Resources for the Forecasting Process  The current Situation where Service Providers take most of the Risk is not Sustainable in the middle to long Term  3PL/4PL Providers can take advantage but need to improve Communication and Risk and Reward Sharing with the Asset Providers 16
  • 17. 17
  • 19. 19