1. THE UNSUSTAINABILITY OF ENERGY MODEL OF BRAZIL
Fernando Alcoforado *
Brazil is currently facing two major threats in the energy industry: 1) blackouts in the
power sector, and, 2) shortage of fuel. These threats arise, on one hand, the lack of
integrated planning of the energy sector in Brazil and on the other, the problems related
to the operations of the electric system and the production of fuels (petroleum and
natural gas) and ethanol. The lack of an integrated energy planning in Brazil results
from the fact that the electricity sector and the oil sector being dominated by authentic
feuds that impede rational use of energy sources. The planning of electrical and oil
sectors is performed separately in relation to each other.
In the electricity sector, both hydro and nuclear and conventional power plants using
fossil fuels are the plans of the federal government for the supply of electricity in the
country until 2035. Instead of concentrate production of electricity by large hydropower
plants as required under the 2030 Plan, the policy of producing electricity in
hydroelectric plants of small or medium sized and distributed to markets near the
sources of production should be adopted . If these production sources are not sufficient,
there should be complementary to the use of wind turbines and photovoltaic or thermo
solar energy which justify its implementation and conventional power plants using
natural gas that is the cleanest of the fossil fuels. Nuclear power plants, in turn, should
be abandoned as an energy alternative for security problems.
The planning of the electricity sector should be geared to decentralize and diversify the
electric system to ensure continuity of supply of electricity and avoid blackouts. The
solutions are twofold: greater decentralization of the system and increase the
redundancy of the protection system because it is missing a dual protection. José
Goldemberg explains that examples of other countries that have managed to efficiently
interconnect the power grid can be taken, as is the case of Spain that has decentralized
energy sources. There are lots of uses wind energy, for example. And there are more
than 10,000 energy sources across the country. Therefore, the vulnerability of the
system decreases. Alongside this effort should be a priority in energy saving policy in
all sectors of the country's activity and the use of cogeneration in industry in order to
produce heat and electricity with the use of waste in industrial production and natural
gas.
Successive "blackouts" that are occurring in the Brazilian electrical system can be
assigned to 5 factors : 1) the fall in water level in the reservoirs of hydroelectric plants
which contributes to the reduction of electricity production in the country, 2) lack of
proper coordination the protection that has not been able to isolate the problem in the
area affected system preventing the spread of the "blackout" , 3) lack of dual protection
system in critical areas that can be triggered in the event of faults in the electrical
system, 4) lack appropriate service maintenance to minimize the occurrence of faults in
the electrical system, and 5) lack of supply emergency power systems in critical areas
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2. that can be triggered when the "blackout" occurs in the interconnected power system in
Brazil.
Regarding the protection of the electrical system, it should consist of protective
equipment that would act only in the area that is to act, ie, they should be located at
convenient points mains to ensure the minimization of supply interruptions energy.
Protective equipment should be properly coordinated with each other so that each
operates at the scheduled time. The spread of a "blackout" can happen if the safety
equipment are not properly coordinated. This may have occurred in the recent
"blackouts" recorded in Brazil. If the protection system of the electrical system in Brazil
was doubled the chance of "blackouts" would be reduced significantly, given that
protective gear fails the other would be triggered to prevent the spread of the problem.
Instead of adopting a planning process of the electricity sector on a rational basis, the
federal government took the decision in 2013 to reduce the electricity tariff which
helped to encourage greater consumption of electricity and the rising cost of electricity
supply using of thermal to avoid rationing that will bring negative economic impacts on
the financial health of companies in the industry considering that will lower revenue and
increased costs resulting in cash flow problems. At first, the injury was covered
enterprises with funds from the National Treasury. In 2014, electricity distributors may
make a loss of $ 15 billion, according to calculations by Abradee (Brazilian Association
of Electricity Distributors). This very high cost to the distributors will inevitably reach
for the consumer if the corporate rate to the taxpayer or the National Treasury to cover
the losses of companies.
As for the oil industry, the press is heralding the possibility of fuel shortages in the
country The prospect of fuel shortages in Brazil is due to three factors: 1) record the
consumption of gasoline and diesel fuel, 2) the lack of internal capacity production, and
3) problems of infrastructure for storage and distribution. To avoid shortages in the
country due to high domestic demand, Petrobras has been importing more and more
gasoline. Instead of adopting a rational plan for the oil sector with the adoption of
solutions that contribute to reducing the consumption of petroleum products and the use
of substitutes for gasoline and diesel in the transport sector and fuel oil in industry the
federal government favors imports of gasoline and diesel to meet demand. Moreover, to
combat inflation undermines the financial health of this company Petrobras preventing
to adopt a pricing policy of derivatives similar to the global oil market.
Among the substitutes for gasoline and diesel in the transport sector may be cited as
ethanol and biodiesel . The most appropriate substitute for fuel oil in industry would be
natural gas because it is the cleanest of fossil fuels despite the country's dependence on
imports of the fossil energy input source. Besides the use of these substitutes for
petroleum products should be a major effort by automakers for cars and trucks in order
to raise the efficiency of motor vehicles to save energy. In parallel, another action
towards the expansion of rail systems and waterways for freight transport in trucks and
the replacement of public transport should be implemented, especially the mass
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3. transport of high capacity as the subway, to reduce car usage in cities. Another
important initiative would be to restrict the use of cars in city centers.
A rational energy planning in Brazil requires the use of renewable energy that should
have greater participation in the Brazilian energy matrix, and to adopt policies for
energy saving. To reverse this current situation, the federal government has to adopt a
new paradigm in the strategic planning of the energy sector, as well as ensuring the
participation of states, municipalities and civil society in the planning process so that
renewables, political economy energy and the demands of local development in the
energy sector are considered. This would be the way to enable the achievement of
sustainability of the energy sector in Brazil and avoid shortages of electricity and fuel.
*
Alcoforado, Fernando, engineer and doctor of Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the
University of Barcelona, a university professor and consultant in strategic planning, business planning,
regional planning and planning of energy systems, is the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo,
1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do
desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,
http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel,
São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era
Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social
Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG,
Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora,
Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global
(Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011) and Os Fatores Condicionantes do
Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), among others.
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