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3Q13 Earnings
Conference Call
July 10, 2013
A Word of Caution
Certain statements contained in this presentation which are not historical facts are forward-
looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities
Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements address the Company’s
plans, activities or events which the Company expects will or may occur in the future.
A number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those
expressed in any forward-looking statements. Such factors, risks and uncertainties are set
forth under the headings “Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements,” or
“Risk Factors” or "Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results
of Operation" in the Company’s annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form
10-Q filed or to be filed, respectively, and which are expressly incorporated herein by
reference.
You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which
speak only as of July 10, 2013. The Company does not undertake to update or revise its
forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it clear that projected
results expressed or implied in such statements will not be realized, except as may be
required by law.
2
July 10, 2013
Agenda
Introduction & Safe Harbor
Kiley Rawlins, CFA
VP – IR & Communications
3Q13 Highlights
Howard Levine
Chairman & CEO
3Q13 Financial Review and Outlook
Mary Winston
Chief Financial Officer
Operational Update
Mike Bloom
President & COO
Closing Remarks Howard Levine
Questions & Answers
Howard Levine
Mike Bloom
Mary Winston
3
July 10, 2013
3Q13 Highlights
Howard Levine
Chairman & CEO
3Q13 Highlights
• Diluted EPS of $1.05 vs. $1.06 in 3Q12
• Comparable store sales increase 2.9%
• Market share growth over the last 4, 12, 26
and 52-week periods
5
July 10, 2013
Economic Headwinds
$5,800
$5,900
$6,000
$6,100
$6,200
Annual Spend on Consumables
6
July 10, 2013
Source: Nielsen Homescan
$85
$89
$93
$97
FDO Share of Wallet
Focused on What We Can Control
• Control expenses
• Increase inventory productivity
• Stabilize gross margin
• Drive operational efficiencies
7
July 10, 2013
Investing for Our Future
• Assortment
• 500 new stores in FY13
• 60% of stores renovated by end of FY13
• Management team
8
July 10, 2013
3Q13 Financial Review
and Outlook
Mary Winston
Chief Financial Officer
3Q13 Results
3Q12 Actual
April 10, 2013
Guidance
3Q13 Actual
Comp sales 5.0%
Lower end of
2% - 4%
2.9%
Diluted EPS $1.06 $0.98 - $1.08 $1.05
July 10, 2013
Third Quarter Revenues
$2.4
$2.6
Net Sales
(billions)
3Q12 3Q13
5.0%
2.9%
Comparable Store Sales Growth
3Q12 3Q13
11
July 10, 2013
Store Activity
FY12 FY13
Openings Closings Openings Closings
1Q 101 4 125 1
2Q 83 32 126 17
3Q 103 7 129 3
YTD 287 43 380 21
Ending Store Count 7,267 7,801
Selling square footage (M) 51,945 55,994
Renovations, Relocations
and Expansions
583 556
12
July 10, 2013
Sales Growth by Category
10.6%
12.2%
14.8%
2.5%
4.1%
-3.7%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3Q11 3Q12 3Q13
Consumables Discretionary
13
July 10, 2013
Third Quarter Gross Profit
68.9% 72.5%
11.4% 10.3%
9.6% 8.0%
10.0% 9.2%
3Q12 3Q13
Category Sales Mix
(% of Sales)
Consumables Home Products
Apparel & Accessories Seasonal & Electronics
14
36.2%
36.6%
36.2%
35.8%
34.7%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13
(Gross
Profit
($M)
Gross Profit Trends
GM$ GM Rate
July 10, 2013
Third Quarter Gross Margin
15
Negative Pressures
• Stronger sales of lower-
margin consumables
• Increased inventory
shrinkage
• Higher markdowns
Positive Impacts
• Higher merchandise mark-
ups
• Lower freight expenses
July 10, 2013
35.8%
34.7%
3Q12 3Q13
Gross Margin
Third Quarter SG&A Expense
16
28.7%
28.1%
27.6%
27.6%
27.4%
26.0%
26.5%
27.0%
27.5%
28.0%
28.5%
29.0%
3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13
(percent
of
sales)
SG&A Expense
As a percent of sales:
• Lower advertising expenses
• Lower distribution center
expenses
• Higher store occupancy
expense
• Higher store labor expense
July 10, 2013
Third Quarter Earnings Results
(in millions except for per share
amounts)
3Q12 3Q13 Change
Net Income $124.5 $120.9 -2.9%
Diluted Earnings per
Share
$1.06 $1.05 -0.9%
Weighted average
shares - diluted
117.6 115.5
17
July 10, 2013
$163
$191 $189
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
3Q11 3Q12 3Q13
(thousands)
• Anniversary of FY12
consumables expansion
• Well-managed
discretionary inventories
18
-1%
July 10, 2013
Capital Deployment Priorities
$391
$600
$67
$78
$92
$75
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
FY12 YTD FY13 YTD
(millions)
CapX Dividends Share Repurchases
Investment priorities:
• Invest in the business
• Dividend growth
• Share repurchases
19
July 10, 2013
Third Quarter Capital Expenditures
$53
$93
$40
$42
$15
$19
$47
$36
0
50
100
150
200
3Q12 3Q13
(millions)
Other Supply Chain
Renovation Program New Stores
• New store investments
– Fee Development
program
• Chain-wide renovation
program
• New distribution center
in St. George, Utah
20
$155
$190
July 10, 2013
Investing Activities
$603
$360
FY12 FY13P
(millions)
Capital Expenditures Sale Leaseback Proceeds
21
$750 - $800
$330 - $340
July 10, 2013
Outlook*
4Q13
Comparable Store Sales Growth around 2%
Gross Margin minimal pressure
SG&A Expense minimal leverage
Tax Rate around 36%
Diluted Earnings per Share $0.82 - $0.87
FY13
Diluted Earnings per Share $3.77 - $3.82
22
*As provided in 3Q13 earnings press release dated July 10, 2013
July 10, 2013
Operational Update
Mike Bloom
President & Chief Operating Officer
Becoming More Relevant
July 10, 2013
Continued Strong Growth in Consumables
12.2%
16.1%
18.5%
16.9%
14.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13* 3Q13
Net Sales Growth • Refrigerated and frozen
food
– McLane
• Tobacco
• Health aids
25
*Results adjusted for the extra week in 2Q13
July 10, 2013
Discretionary Sales Remain Challenged
15.4%
1.1%
-1.8%
-0.5%
-8.9%
-2.1%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Seasonal & Electronics Apparel & Accessories Home Products
Net Sales Growth
3Q12 3Q13
26
July 10, 2013
Unusual Weather Trends
27
July 10, 2013
Managing Discretionary Categories
• Manage receipts
• Optimize space
• Strengthen the team
28
July 10, 2013
Laser-Focused on Expanding Profit Margins
• Improve inventory productivity
• Expand merchandise markup
• Increase efficiency
• Store simplification
29
July 10, 2013
$171
$191 $192
$210
$200
$189
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$250
(thousands)
Average Inventory per Store
• Consumables expansion
– Food
– HBA
– Tobacco
• Ongoing SKU
rationalization
30
July 10, 2013
Expand Merchandise Markup
• Strong supplier relationships
• Global sourcing capabilities
• Private brands
31
July 10, 2013
Increase Efficiency
• Shrink
• Store manager turnover
• Store simplification
– Schematic resets
– In-store marketing
– Door-to-shelf
32
July 10, 2013
Bright Future for FDO
• Moving the business forward
• Adjusting to near-term environment
• Investing for our future
• Focused on customer
33
July 10, 2013
3Q13 Earnings
Conference Call
July 10, 2013

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FDO Delivers Solid 3Q13 Results Despite Challenges

  • 2. A Word of Caution Certain statements contained in this presentation which are not historical facts are forward- looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements address the Company’s plans, activities or events which the Company expects will or may occur in the future. A number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements. Such factors, risks and uncertainties are set forth under the headings “Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements,” or “Risk Factors” or "Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operation" in the Company’s annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed or to be filed, respectively, and which are expressly incorporated herein by reference. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of July 10, 2013. The Company does not undertake to update or revise its forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it clear that projected results expressed or implied in such statements will not be realized, except as may be required by law. 2 July 10, 2013
  • 3. Agenda Introduction & Safe Harbor Kiley Rawlins, CFA VP – IR & Communications 3Q13 Highlights Howard Levine Chairman & CEO 3Q13 Financial Review and Outlook Mary Winston Chief Financial Officer Operational Update Mike Bloom President & COO Closing Remarks Howard Levine Questions & Answers Howard Levine Mike Bloom Mary Winston 3 July 10, 2013
  • 5. 3Q13 Highlights • Diluted EPS of $1.05 vs. $1.06 in 3Q12 • Comparable store sales increase 2.9% • Market share growth over the last 4, 12, 26 and 52-week periods 5 July 10, 2013
  • 6. Economic Headwinds $5,800 $5,900 $6,000 $6,100 $6,200 Annual Spend on Consumables 6 July 10, 2013 Source: Nielsen Homescan $85 $89 $93 $97 FDO Share of Wallet
  • 7. Focused on What We Can Control • Control expenses • Increase inventory productivity • Stabilize gross margin • Drive operational efficiencies 7 July 10, 2013
  • 8. Investing for Our Future • Assortment • 500 new stores in FY13 • 60% of stores renovated by end of FY13 • Management team 8 July 10, 2013
  • 9. 3Q13 Financial Review and Outlook Mary Winston Chief Financial Officer
  • 10. 3Q13 Results 3Q12 Actual April 10, 2013 Guidance 3Q13 Actual Comp sales 5.0% Lower end of 2% - 4% 2.9% Diluted EPS $1.06 $0.98 - $1.08 $1.05 July 10, 2013
  • 11. Third Quarter Revenues $2.4 $2.6 Net Sales (billions) 3Q12 3Q13 5.0% 2.9% Comparable Store Sales Growth 3Q12 3Q13 11 July 10, 2013
  • 12. Store Activity FY12 FY13 Openings Closings Openings Closings 1Q 101 4 125 1 2Q 83 32 126 17 3Q 103 7 129 3 YTD 287 43 380 21 Ending Store Count 7,267 7,801 Selling square footage (M) 51,945 55,994 Renovations, Relocations and Expansions 583 556 12 July 10, 2013
  • 13. Sales Growth by Category 10.6% 12.2% 14.8% 2.5% 4.1% -3.7% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 Consumables Discretionary 13 July 10, 2013
  • 14. Third Quarter Gross Profit 68.9% 72.5% 11.4% 10.3% 9.6% 8.0% 10.0% 9.2% 3Q12 3Q13 Category Sales Mix (% of Sales) Consumables Home Products Apparel & Accessories Seasonal & Electronics 14 36.2% 36.6% 36.2% 35.8% 34.7% $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 (Gross Profit ($M) Gross Profit Trends GM$ GM Rate July 10, 2013
  • 15. Third Quarter Gross Margin 15 Negative Pressures • Stronger sales of lower- margin consumables • Increased inventory shrinkage • Higher markdowns Positive Impacts • Higher merchandise mark- ups • Lower freight expenses July 10, 2013 35.8% 34.7% 3Q12 3Q13 Gross Margin
  • 16. Third Quarter SG&A Expense 16 28.7% 28.1% 27.6% 27.6% 27.4% 26.0% 26.5% 27.0% 27.5% 28.0% 28.5% 29.0% 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 (percent of sales) SG&A Expense As a percent of sales: • Lower advertising expenses • Lower distribution center expenses • Higher store occupancy expense • Higher store labor expense July 10, 2013
  • 17. Third Quarter Earnings Results (in millions except for per share amounts) 3Q12 3Q13 Change Net Income $124.5 $120.9 -2.9% Diluted Earnings per Share $1.06 $1.05 -0.9% Weighted average shares - diluted 117.6 115.5 17 July 10, 2013
  • 18. $163 $191 $189 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 (thousands) • Anniversary of FY12 consumables expansion • Well-managed discretionary inventories 18 -1% July 10, 2013
  • 19. Capital Deployment Priorities $391 $600 $67 $78 $92 $75 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 FY12 YTD FY13 YTD (millions) CapX Dividends Share Repurchases Investment priorities: • Invest in the business • Dividend growth • Share repurchases 19 July 10, 2013
  • 20. Third Quarter Capital Expenditures $53 $93 $40 $42 $15 $19 $47 $36 0 50 100 150 200 3Q12 3Q13 (millions) Other Supply Chain Renovation Program New Stores • New store investments – Fee Development program • Chain-wide renovation program • New distribution center in St. George, Utah 20 $155 $190 July 10, 2013
  • 21. Investing Activities $603 $360 FY12 FY13P (millions) Capital Expenditures Sale Leaseback Proceeds 21 $750 - $800 $330 - $340 July 10, 2013
  • 22. Outlook* 4Q13 Comparable Store Sales Growth around 2% Gross Margin minimal pressure SG&A Expense minimal leverage Tax Rate around 36% Diluted Earnings per Share $0.82 - $0.87 FY13 Diluted Earnings per Share $3.77 - $3.82 22 *As provided in 3Q13 earnings press release dated July 10, 2013 July 10, 2013
  • 23. Operational Update Mike Bloom President & Chief Operating Officer
  • 25. Continued Strong Growth in Consumables 12.2% 16.1% 18.5% 16.9% 14.8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13* 3Q13 Net Sales Growth • Refrigerated and frozen food – McLane • Tobacco • Health aids 25 *Results adjusted for the extra week in 2Q13 July 10, 2013
  • 26. Discretionary Sales Remain Challenged 15.4% 1.1% -1.8% -0.5% -8.9% -2.1% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Seasonal & Electronics Apparel & Accessories Home Products Net Sales Growth 3Q12 3Q13 26 July 10, 2013
  • 28. Managing Discretionary Categories • Manage receipts • Optimize space • Strengthen the team 28 July 10, 2013
  • 29. Laser-Focused on Expanding Profit Margins • Improve inventory productivity • Expand merchandise markup • Increase efficiency • Store simplification 29 July 10, 2013
  • 30. $171 $191 $192 $210 $200 $189 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 (thousands) Average Inventory per Store • Consumables expansion – Food – HBA – Tobacco • Ongoing SKU rationalization 30 July 10, 2013
  • 31. Expand Merchandise Markup • Strong supplier relationships • Global sourcing capabilities • Private brands 31 July 10, 2013
  • 32. Increase Efficiency • Shrink • Store manager turnover • Store simplification – Schematic resets – In-store marketing – Door-to-shelf 32 July 10, 2013
  • 33. Bright Future for FDO • Moving the business forward • Adjusting to near-term environment • Investing for our future • Focused on customer 33 July 10, 2013