3. Time to get ready
Contents
The weather is changing. Temperatures and sea levels are rising. The Issue 1
Summers are getting hotter, winters wetter. What does that mean to The cause 4
Creating a better place:
England and Wales? What will it be like to live here? Should you care? limiting and adapting to
What can we – the Environment Agency – and you do about it? climate change 5
Putting a price on climate change 9
Living in the twenty-first century 10
Here at the Environment Agency, climate change is our highest priority. We are building the
Too much rain 11
country’s resilience to some of the biggest impacts: water shortages, flooding and environmental Summer flooding 11
deterioration. And, in our regulation of industry, we are playing our part in addressing the causes. Winter flooding 13
Winter storms and
In this, our first national report on climate change, we answer some of the questions above by sea level rise 15
using real examples of conditions that will become more common as the climate changes. Longer, drier, hotter summers 18
Water supply 18
We report from our own point of view and focus on the threats rather than the opportunities,
Water quality 19
because that is where we need to take action. This is also an invitation. We are making it clear Higher temperatures 19
what we already do and what we want to do. If you are working on climate change, you need to Air pollution 20
talk to us so that we can work together. Biodiversity impacts 21
Summary 23
I look forward to hearing from you. Further information 26
References 27
Barbara Young
Chief Executive, Environment Agency
4. The issue
Climate change is the biggest threat to our future. Climate change means that extreme weather
events will become more frequent and more
Already in the first years of this century, floods, dangerous. The severity will depend on the
amount of greenhouse gases released into
storms and droughts have shown how vulnerable the the atmosphere from now on, and how the
climate system responds. By 2100 we can
UK is to the weather. We at the Environment Agency expect global temperature increases of 1.4 to
work with local communities all around England and 5.8˚C.1 At the upper end of this range,
changes are likely to be so extreme that it will
Wales. We know from our on-the-ground experience be difficult to cope with them. The European
Union (EU) has proposed that global
the devastation that recent unusual weather events temperature rises need to be limited to 2˚C
to avoid dangerous climate change.2
have caused. To achieve this, society must cut emissions
of carbon dioxide, the most common
greenhouse gas, now.
01 Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue
5. Find out about further
i sources of information
where you see this symbol.
What might happen? It’s not all bad
Current projections for ‘Listen – I am as worried as anyone
It is now clear that climate change has been the UK else about global warming, but
1
2
IPCC (2001)
European Commission (2004)
triggered by increases in greenhouse gases, in having lunch outdoors five times by 3 See for example the IPCC’s
particular those released from the use of The UK Climate Impacts Programme the middle of March has been a bit of Third Assessment Report
4 (2001) and Oreskes (2004).
fossil fuels.3 The carbon dioxide already scenarios indicate that: a treat.’ The latter presents a review of
the 928 papers published
released has determined the changes for the • By the 2080s average annual Nigel Slater, writing in the Observer, about climate change in
next 30 to 40 years. But beyond that there is a temperature across the UK may scientific journals between
14 April 2002 1993 and 2003
choice. Further changes depend on how well rise by between 2 and 3.5˚C but 4 UKCIP (2002a)
the causes are mitigated (reduced) from now some areas could warm by as much Global warming could bring
on. In the meantime, resilience to current as 5˚C. opportunities. Most people will enjoy
climate variability and extreme weather must warmer summers, provided they are
be developed. • Heavy winter rainfall events that
occur every two years are expected not too hot – but not the winter rain.
to increase in intensity by between Farmers could use the longer growing
five and 20 per cent. season to expand their range of crops
Find out more about our
i views on climate change. • Relative sea-level around the UK
could rise by as much as 86 cm in
– as long as there’s enough water.
Higher levels of carbon dioxide may
allow plants to grow faster – again if
www.environment- southern England by the 2080s, there’s enough water. Warmer
agency.gov.uk/ourviews/ and extreme high sea levels will temperatures will allow some plants
occur more frequently. and animals to expand their range –
These scenarios are currently being but for others it will contract.
updated. See www.ukcip.org.uk/
Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue 02
6. At the Environment Carlisle and surrounding
area, 2005 winter flooding
Agency, we are already Stanhope and Haydon Bridge, winter 2005,
highest ever river levels
building the country’s Rail between Harrogate and Leeds Yorkshire and County Durham
resilience to some of the 2002, summer flash floods summer flash floods, 2000
Filey 2002, summer flooding
most significant impacts Lancashire 2004, ‘worst in living memory’
summer flash floods
of climate change. Hull 2000, highest tidal
Industry hit by coastal flooding surge for 40 years
in 2000 and 2001
Trefriw and Llanrwst 2004 River Soar 2003, record
and 2005, winter flooding low river levels
These impacts include (see Figure 1): and landslides
• The strain on water availability for people Snowdonia, less snow Great Yarmouth
and ecosystems brought by longer, hotter, 2000, tornado
Towns on the River
drier summers and development in areas Severn, winter flooding, Harrow 2004, Essex and Suffolk
where water resources are scarce. 2000 and 2004 summer flash floods saltmarshes lost to the sea
• An increase in flood risk caused by wetter River Yscir, 2003
winters, greater storminess and sea level record low river levels London: 2002 summer
rise. In England and Wales, 5 million flash floods, 2003
Rhoose 1989, highest windspeed heatwave. Thames
people already live in flood risk areas and ever recorded in England Barrier raised record
about 12 per cent of farmland and a and Wales 11 times in 2001
quarter of industrial sites are at risk. Some Upton winter 2003,
11 per cent of new homes are built in flood groundwater flooding Brogdale 2003, highest
risk areas in England.5 temperature ever in the UK
Boscastle 2004,
• An increase in air and water pollution summer flash River Rother 2003, low river flows
River Stour 2003,
triggered by longer, hotter summers. floods record low river levels Chertsey, Wraysbury 2003, winter flooding
River Itchen, low river flows
Looe, Penzance, Porthleven and
South East 2000,
Falmouth 2004, coastal flooding
summer flash floods
Figure 1 Recent weather events around England and Wales described in this report
03 Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue
7. The cause
Global climate change has been caused by an increase in greenhouse gases 6 in the
atmosphere. These gases come from both natural and man-made sources, but the
increase is the result of human activity7(Figure 2), mainly the release of carbon
dioxide from the use of fossil fuels such as coal, gas, oil, petrol and diesel.
5
Overall, UK emissions of carbon dioxide fell Figure 2 The effect of human activity on global Figure 3 UK carbon dioxide emissions, 1990 to 2003 ODPM (2004a)
6 The main greenhouse gases
temperatures
between 1990 and 2002 (Figure 3). This was are carbon dioxide, methane,
Index (1990 = 100) Contributions to 2002 emissions nitrous oxide,
largely the result of reductions made by the Actual temperature Natural effects and
perfluorocarbons (PFCs),
man-made effects 120 Domestic 16%
industries we regulate and a move away from hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
Natural effects (solar and volcanic activity) and sulphur hexafluoride
coal and oil to gas-fired power stations. But (SF6)
110
releases from both domestic sources and Temperature change ˚C
7 See for example Stott et al.
Transport 24% (2004)
transport rose over the same period, and the 1.0 8
100 Due to an increase in gas
output from coal-fired power stations is now prices and maintenance costs
rising again.8 at nuclear power stations in
90 Processes we the last two years
9 Department for Transport
More and more of us are taking to the roads regulate 41%
0.5 White Paper (2004)
and skies. Traffic levels are predicted to rise by 80 10 Measured in passenger-
40 per cent between 2000 and 20259 and kilometres, from 1995 base.
Transport 2000 (see
worldwide air travel is expected to double 70 www.transport2000.
between 1995 and 2015.10 But there is a cost 0.0 org.uk/factsandfigures/
Facts.asp)
for the climate. New technologies are reducing 1990 1994 1998 2002
the pollution from individual vehicles, but the
benefit is offset by the increasing volume of
2002 is the latest year of data available for domestic and
traffic. Transport is now the second most 1850 1900 1950 2000
transport emissions. Emissions from transport do not include
important source of carbon dioxide emissions. shipping or aviation. Source: NETCEN, Environment Agency
These include releases by aeroplanes in the Source: IPCC (2001)
upper atmosphere, which have an important
effect compared to emissions at ground level.
Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue 04
8. Creating a better place:
limiting and adapting to climate change
‘The ultimate objective … is to achieve … The climate is already changing and the UK The UK is a world leader in the drive to reduce 11 See http://unfccc.int/ for
more information on the
stabilisation of greenhouse gas has to adapt to the inevitable effects. Global carbon dioxide, but is not currently on track to UNFCCC
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced meet national commitments by 2010. The 12 Energy Saving Trust (see
that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic and stabilised in order to limit the extent of Prime Minister has said that ‘we have to do www.est.org.uk/myhome/
climatechange/forecasting/
interference with the climate system. Such a climate change to manageable levels. This more to achieve our commitment to reduce makeadifference/)
level should be achieved within a time frame means moving to low carbon energy – carbon dioxide emissions by 20 per cent by 13
14
DTI (2004)
EurObser’ER (2004)
to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to increasing the use of renewable and other 2010.’15 We support more stringent effort, as 15 14 September 2004 speech.
climate change, to ensure that food non-fossil fuel based energy, reducing demand we think it is vital that the UK meets both this www.number10.gov.uk/
output/page6333.asp
production is not threatened and to enable and improving efficiency. In the long term, commitment and the target of a 60 per cent 16 Defra December 2004 review
economic development to proceed in a these measures will also save money – the reduction in carbon dioxide by 2050. of the UK Climate Change
Programme
sustainable manner.’ average UK household could save £200 a year
The Government has identified opportunities 17 Environment Agency (2004)
by improving energy efficiency, for example.12 18 Environment Agency (2001c)
United Nations Framework Convention on to further reduce carbon dioxide releases and
Climate Change.11 The UK has the largest potential for wind, wave will publish a review of the Climate Change
and tidal energy in Europe, but currently Programme this year after consultation.16
generates only three per cent of electricity from We also support its proposal of a UK-wide
renewable resources,13 way behind Austria adaptation framework that sets out clear
(59 per cent), Sweden (43 per cent), Portugal objectives, roles and responsibilities for
(42 per cent) and Spain (26 per cent).14 If the government, government bodies and other
UK is to meet the target of generating 20 per stakeholders to ensure that the UK is
cent of electricity using renewable energy by sufficiently prepared for climate change. Only
2020, rapid adoption of these renewable by taking action now can we minimise the
energy schemes is needed. impact of climate change on our quality of life.
05 Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue
9. The results of decisions taken today to protect society
from a changing climate may last many decades or even
centuries. If they are to stand the test of time, they need
to be resilient to the future climate. Building resilience
into the early stages of big infrastructure projects for
example will save money in the long run.
Development in inappropriate locations can But designing and building in ways that are
exacerbate the problems associated with flood more water efficient and resilient to flooding
risk and limited water supply. To avoid need not be costly. We believe that designing
creating problems in the future it is essential in efficiency measures can reduce an average
that planners and developers work with us to household’s water use by 25 per cent at no
ensure that development is located in the best extra cost.
place and is resilient to climate change. We
As an organisation, we consider climate
need better application of national policy to
change in everything we do. We are defining
prevent inappropriate development on flood
and planning for the impacts of climate
plains or areas of flood risk – over half the
change on water, land, biodiversity, waste
planning proposals that we objected to last
management, flooding, air quality, health,
year lacked appropriate assessment of flood
emergency planning and how we monitor and
risk. Almost 12 per cent of the proposals we
report on the state of the environment. Our
objected to were approved contrary to our
science programme is helping us develop risk-
advice by local planning authorities (Figure
based responses to these impacts across all
4).17 In some areas water supplies are already
our functions.
almost fully used by the existing population.18 Figure 4 Development applications granted against Environment Agency
advice 2003/04
Planned development sites Planned development sites that lie in areas that
have flooded in the past
Major development Minor development
Source: Environment Agency
Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue 06
10. Find out more about
i renewable energy
www.dti.gov.uk/renewables/
Use less energy
www.est.org.uk/
Cut carbon emissions
www.thecarbontrust.co.uk/
19 ODPM (2004c)
In 2004 we organised and took part in 20 ODPM (2004c)
‘Exercise Triton 04’ with more than 60 other The Thames Gateway
organisations to test how well we would all
respond to, and cope with, a national-scale Climate change presents a particular challenge to the Thames Gateway.19 Much of
flooding event. Improvements since the 1998 the area is in the floodplain of the Thames Estuary and – as in the rest of south east
and 2000 floods were recognised. Valuable England – the balance of water demand and supply is already fragile. Successful
lessons were identified that will be followed planning for the extra 120,000 homes planned to be built by 2016 20 needs to ensure
through with action plans for all the that the development minimises both extra demand for water and flood risk. We are
organisations involved to further strengthen
working with organisations such as the Thames Gateway London Partnership to
the nation’s capability to deal with major
flooding events. ensure that this is the case. We have set up the Thames Estuary 2100 project, which
will produce a flood risk management strategy for the estuary for the next 100 years.
This will balance the need for existing and new development with the challenge of
Make buildings more
i climate proof by flood-
proofing (e.g. raising floor
rising sea levels and storm surges caused by climate change. We are working with
partners in the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany on some of the future challenges.
With all partners working together, the Gateway can be sustainable. The area is too
height) and incorporating water important to miss this opportunity.
efficiency measures
www.practicalhelp.org.uk/
housing/guidance/
07 Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue
11. How the Environment Agency fits in
We consider climate change in everything we do and have a major role
in both limiting the scale of climate change by addressing its causes,
and limiting its impact by adapting to change.
Addressing the causes: Limiting the impact by adapting: • We regulate and protect fisheries and
21
promote recreation and navigation. See www.environment-
• Over 40 per cent of the carbon dioxide • We license water use, balancing the agency.gov.uk/business/
444217/444663/298441/
released in the UK comes from various demands for drinking, for • We are one of the organisations involved for details about pollution
industries that we regulate. We consider industry and for the environment. in protecting and managing the marine prevention and control (PPC)
their energy use and limit releases of environment. permitting
• We are the largest flood risk 22 See www.environment-
pollutants.21 agency.gov.uk/business/
management authority in England and • We are building climate change into our 444217/590750/590838/55
• We are running the EU Emissions Trading Wales, responsible for 36,000 km of catchment-scale plans for the Water 6574/ for details about the
Scheme (ETS) in England and Wales.22 flood defences along rivers and coast. Framework Directive, which will allow us EU ETS
to tackle its impacts on water, land and
• We promote adoption of low carbon • We provide a 24-hour flood forecasting
biodiversity in an all-embracing way.
technologies and support the Carbon and warning service, raise public
Trust and Energy Saving Trust. We only awareness and promote uptake of • We operate monitoring and surveillance
use renewable energy in our 2,000 sites Kitemarked flood-proofing measures. programmes to improve our
and facilities. understanding of climate change.
• We advise planners and developers on
• We will be working with a government- the flood risk of new developments. • We work with many other organisations,
led multi-agency cross-sector such as central government, local
• We protect wetland habitats and
communication partnership to help councils, planning authorities and the
species.
people, industry and businesses emergency services. We are involved in
understand how serious the situation is • We aim to prevent or reduce the risk of all of the regional climate change
and what action can be taken. pollution wherever possible, and to partnerships, supporting their work to
ensure that it gets cleaned up if develop and promote the need for
pollution occurs. adaptation responses.
Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue 08
12. Putting a price on climate change
It will be expensive to build resilience to climate change. Reducing the
risk of tidal and river flooding already costs us £0.4 billion a year.
We estimate that over the next 80 years the • 1998 – Easter floods led to the evacuation The Association of British Insurers (ABI) 23 Foresight Flooding 2004 (see
www.environment-
cost of engineered flood defences to meet the of 1,500 people from their homes, and a estimates that the increased cost to agency.gov.uk/subjects/
demands of climate change in England and cost to the insurance industry of around households due to extreme weather events flood/763964/)
Wales will be £22 to £75 billion. £500 million. will be up to 4 per cent extra each year.26 24 Association of British Insurers
(ABI) (2004a)
The things we own are increasing in value, so 25 Data provided by ABI, 2005
It is worth doing. Flood damage already costs • 2000 – Heavy autumn rainfall led to 10,000
we have more to lose. 26 ABI (2004b)
about £1 billion a year and our flood risk flooded properties, and nearly £1 billion in
management prevents further yearly damages insurance claims.
of £3.4 billion. But we can’t defend
• 2003 – Soaring temperatures combined Insurance may get more
i
everywhere. Damage costs from flooding are
with low rainfall doubled the previous year’s
predicted to be as much as £25 billion under a
insurance claims for subsidence to
expensive for everyone.
worst-case scenario in the 2080s.23 The ABI agree it is time
£390 million.
Since 1998 the cost of repairing the damage
• 2004 – Torrential rain and flash flooding to bring planning for climate
from extreme weather events and floods has
across Britain cost over £300 million in the change into the mainstream of
increased by 60 per cent.24
first nine months alone.25 business life.
www.abi.org.uk/climatechange/
09 Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue
13. Living in the
twenty-first century
‘It’s the extreme weather and climate events that will have
some of the most severe impacts on human society as the
climate changes.’
Jerry Meehl, US National Center for Atmospheric Research
In the following sections, we look at the conditions many
people have already experienced this century. While these
individual events cannot be attributed to climate change now,
they are conditions that we expect to become more common
as the climate changes.
Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century 10
14. Too much rain
This century has started with the third wettest year since records began in 1766.28
In autumn 2000 some places flooded for the first time in decades. Torrential rain in
August 2004 caused some of the worst flood events ever recorded in Britain.
Summer flooding Check out our Flood
i
At the end of July 2002 rail services between 27 UKCIP (2002a)
28 Met Office data
Harrogate and Leeds were affected by severe Warning service online
On the whole, we expect that summers will be 29 Hydrographic information –
flooding. In August 2002, in Yorkshire, the 2002 (see www.nwl.ac.uk/
drier.27 But when it does rain, it will probably and do something to ih/nrfa/monthly_summaries/
River Wharfe exceeded its previous August
rain harder. Parched soils are unable to absorb 2002/08/summary.html)
flow maximum in a 47-year record and Filey protect yourself if your home is 30 North Cornwall District
heavy rain fast enough, resulting in localised,
experienced ‘the worst flooding in living at risk. Council (2004)
but severe, flooding. 31 Catovsky/ ABI (2004)
memory’. In the same month, there were 32 Defra, Thames Water,
In 2000 the May bank holiday was washed out localised floods in the London area,29 with www.environment- Environment Agency, Greater
London Authority and Ofwat
as rivers burst their banks in south east some places receiving 60 mm of rain in just agency.gov.uk/subjects/flood/
England, causing local flooding. Unusually one hour. The rail network was badly
severe summer rain in June 2000 caused disrupted.
1,000 homes to be flooded across Yorkshire
Heavy rain and flash flooding hit the headlines
and County Durham. In August of the same
again in summer 2004. At the beginning of
year, a tornado rained a cloudburst of fish on
August, flash floods devastated Boscastle in
the beach in Great Yarmouth, Norfolk.
north Cornwall. Lancashire was also badly
affected. In Harrow, an hour of heavy rain
submerged roads under 18 cm of floodwater.
11 Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century
15. Flood devastates village – Boscastle The London storm sewage problem
On the high ground around Boscastle, 196 mm of rain fell in just four London’s Victorian sewerage system is easily overloaded during storms.
hours on 16 August 2004. The local topography channelled the rainfall Properties can be flooded and large amounts of raw sewage released
into the River Valency, which broke its banks, and three metre high into the tidal section of the River Thames. The ecological consequences
floodwater rushed through the village devastating everything in its can be severe. In August 2004 heavy rainfall led to appalling
path. Nearby Crackington Haven, Canworthy Water, Helebridge and Bude pollution events that killed tens of thousands of fish, left sewage
were also hit. One hundred properties in the area were flooded, debris and a foul smell along the foreshore, and significantly increased
hundreds of people were evacuated from their homes, and over a E. coli levels in the river.
hundred people were plucked from roofs, trees and vehicles in the
• Every year 12 million tonnes of untreated sewage enter the
largest peacetime rescue in the history of mainland Britain. Trees were
river because of storm overflows.
uprooted and four bridges were washed away. Four buildings collapsed
or had to be demolished and at least 70 cars were washed into the sea. • A single storm can create 3 million tonnes of sewage overflow.
Over 50 of our staff helped to handle the crisis. • About 10,000 tonnes of sewage solids are discharged to the river
each year. The solids include paper, faecal matter, sanitary items,
The repair bill for this single event will be in the millions. Infrastructure condoms and hypodermic needles.
damage alone could cost £2 million.30 Insured damage to buildings and
• These discharges occur 50–60 times per year.
cars is estimated at £4–6 million, with a further £5–10 million in
business interruption.31 Estimates of uninsured losses to businesses and These problems are the result of a lack of capacity within London’s
individuals have not yet been recorded. sewer network, and a solution to the problem is being developed
by the Thames Tideway Strategic Partnership.32 It will need
Flood defences can be breached during extreme rainfall events.
substantial investment.
Permanent flood defences are not always suitable for reducing the risk
from flash flooding. Instead, we need to make the best use of emergency
plans, flood warning schemes and advice campaigns, controls over
development and temporary defences to reduce the risk from flooding.
Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century 12
16. Winters have become significantly wetter
since records began in 1766 – an average
increase equivalent to a month of extra
rainfall.
Figure 5 Flood levels in the River Wye at Erwood, Wales Winter flooding information and helpline service. Almost a
Peaks over the threshold Four year moving average
third of our staff were involved in dealing with
Winters are becoming wetter and more rain is
Overall trend the floods.36
falling in heavy downpours.33 Six of the seven
Number of peaks per year over the threshold* rivers we use to indicate flooding show an At New Year 2003, 30 houses were flooded by
increase in frequency of peak river levels (see high groundwater levels in the area around
9
Figure 5 for example). Upton in Hampshire. The Thames had its
8 highest flood since 1947 and many properties
The autumn and winter floods of 2000 were
7 were flooded in Chertsey, Wraysbury and
the worst in some areas for 270 years and
surrounding places.
6 devastated the lives of thousands of people.
In total, 700 places were hit and 10,000 In February 2004, Trefriw and Llanrwst (Conwy)
5
properties were flooded, some five times.34 were cut off, buildings were flooded in 60 cm
4 Significant areas of farmland were flooded of water and five schools were closed as
3 causing an estimated loss of up to £500 floodwaters poured off Snowdonia. Main
million to the farming industry.35 Parts of the roads were cut off by associated landslides.37
2
M1, M3, M20, M23 and M25 were shut, and These villages were flooded again when the
1 railway services throughout Wales, southern, River Conwy burst its banks in the New Year
0
north east and south west England were flooding of 2005.38
1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 disrupted. Sewerage systems in many areas
Heavy rainfall in early January 2005 caused
were overwhelmed, causing up to 30 per cent
extensive, and in places repeated, flooding
*The level exceeded on average between 1980 and 2000 of all property floods. Over half a million
across the north of England. High spring tides
Source: Environment Agency people called our Floodline, our 24-hour
13 Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century
17. Saving the Severn Boats replace traffic
In response to the devastating
in New Year flooding,
autumn 2000 floods, we are working January 2005
with the Department for Environment,
In the second weekend of 2005,
Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), local
Carlisle was hit by its worst flooding
authorities and Severn Trent Water to
since 1822. Almost 2,000 properties
reduce flood risk along the length of
were flooded in Carlisle when the
the River Severn. We are looking at
River Eden and its tributaries
increased the risk of flooding for many. The the causes of flooding, reviewing the 33 UKCIP (2002b)
overtopped 8 km of flood defences, in 34 Environment Agency (2001a)
worst affected area was Cumbria. Across the performance of existing flood 35 NFU press release, 5 January
Pennines, over a hundred properties were some places by more than a metre.
defences and assessing the 2001
flooded around the River Tyne and in the Thousands of people were evacuated 36 Environment Agency (2001b)
effectiveness and viability of flood 37 BBC News 3 February 2004
Yorkshire Dales. River levels on the upper Tyne from their homes and police and fire 38 BBC News 10 January 2005
management options for the next 50
catchment at Stanhope and Haydon Bridge stations were flooded. (see http://news.bbc.co.uk/
were the highest ever recorded. Nearby, years. We are also addressing wider 1/hi/wales/4159471.stm)
Communications were severely 39 Environment Agency (2001b)
11,000 properties in Hexham were without issues such as changes in land use, 40 Planning Policy Guidance 25
disrupted as the town was virtually (PPG25), section A7 (ODPM
mains water for days as, in the midst of all the farming practice, new development
cut off by floodwater. About 70,000 2004b)
flooding, a water main was damaged. and urban drainage.
properties experienced power cuts,
We delivered 1,437 flood warnings and The benefits of this work have telephone lines were down and only
protected 280,000 homes from flooding in already been seen. New defences in one mobile phone operator was
2000 alone.39 Many more may need protecting functioning. As well as the serious
Worcester, Ironbridge, Bewdley and
in the future. We expect flood flows to be 20
Shrewsbury saved about £20 million flooding in Carlisle, flooding occurred
per cent higher by 2050.40 Just 15 cm of fast
of damage and disruption to in the towns of Cockermouth,
flowing water will knock adults off their feet,
60 cm of water will float a car, and 90 cm of home and business owners during Keswick, Appleby and Kendal.
floodwater in an average house can cause up flooding in 2004. Numerous isolated properties and
to £30,000 of damage. villages also suffered flooding.
Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century 14
18. Winter storms and sea level rise
As much as 65 per cent of all flood risk is from coastal and tidal flooding. Across
England and Wales, over a million properties are already at risk. As storms and sea
levels increase, more properties, businesses and people will be affected (Figure 6).
Sea levels around the UK are now about threatening lives. Not all flooding will be Figure 6 Low-lying land in England and Wales
10 cm higher than they were in 1900.41 At the temporary; some places, such as Selsey in Height above current
same time, the south east of England is Sussex, could become islands again if our sea level (metres)
sinking at a rate of 15 to 20 cm a century.42 flood defences don’t keep pace with climate
<1
And the average number of winter storms has change. Other areas, such as Essex, have
1-2
increased significantly, with the largest already lost vast areas of land under the sea.
2-3
increases in the south.43 New records for wind 3-4
We use the latest available technology to The Humber
speeds in England and Wales were set by 4-5
monitor sea conditions 24 hours a day to
124 mph (200 km/hour) gusts at Rhoose >5
forecast coastal flooding and trigger the
(South Glamorgan) in October 1989.44 For
closure of tidal barriers. Clear warning
some east coast locations, extreme sea levels
systems will continue to be an essential
(storm surges) could occur between 10 and
element of flood risk management to enable
20 times more frequently by the 2080s than
people to take action to protect themselves
they do now.45
and their properties. In some cases prompt
Coastal flooding such as that seen in Cornwall evacuation will also be necessary.
at Looe, Penzance, Porthleven, Flushing and
Falmouth on 27 October 2004 will become
London
increasingly common, damaging property and
Selsey
15 Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century
20. A safe climate for Turning the tide for Hull
industry? One of the highest tidal surges for four decades hit Hull in
Large tracts of the north west’s January 2005. Water levels rose to about 90 cm above
industry – including petrochemicals normal levels – about the same height that flooded the city
and a nuclear power plant – are centre in 1969. But the city was saved from certain flooding
vulnerable to tidal surges and river by our tidal barrier, which protected about 1,800 properties
flooding because they are only just and saved £250 million worth of damages.
above the existing high tide sea level
Sea level rises, storm surges and intense erosion are a
or located on flat, low-lying land.
threat to the whole Humber Estuary. Over 300,000 people
Set up your flood plan –
i
In 2001, high tides and storms live on the Humber’s floodplain, protected by flood
flooded Bromborough sewage defences. After the Thames, the Humber has the greatest more businesses flood
treatment works on Merseyside, concentration of people and property on a tidal floodplain in than burn down, yet most
shorting out all power and damaging the UK. businesses have no flood plans in
the infrastructure. It was several place.
We are now putting into effect the Humber Estuary Shoreline
weeks before the plant was fully
Management Plan to combat the effects of climate change. www.environment-agency.gov.uk/
operational again. Fortunately,
In Hull, existing defences will be heightened. At Alkborough
although the potential for subjects/flood/
some embankments will be set back, allowing the sea to
environmental damage was high the
reclaim about 1,000 hectares of farmland; defending the
actual impact was not significant. In
shore by neutralising the energy of waves and creating an
2000, floodwaters from the River
intertidal habitat. As part of the project the Environment
Gowy reached a new part of the Gowy
Agency, English Nature, the Countryside Agency and North
landfill site (near Chester) and mixed
Lincolnshire Council are creating 440 hectares of habitat
with contaminated leachate. This cost
where the Rivers Ouse and Trent meet to replace ‘coastal
the company about £50,000 to tanker
squeeze’ losses in the inner part of the estuary and tidal
away and dispose of safely. A major
washlands. There will be opportunities for countryside
programme of works has now been
leisure activities that will connect with the Waters’ Edge area
completed to reduce the risk of this
at Barton upon Humber.
happening again.
17 Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century
21. Longer, drier, hotter summers
By 2080 the high temperatures experienced in 2003 may
seem cool. High summer temperatures could cause ill health
and even death, and poorer air and water quality. We think
summers will also be drier, and what rain does fall is likely to
be in intense bursts. Droughts will be more frequent.
Water supply Periods of drought spanning more than one
season or one year present a serious threat to
October is the start of the annual ‘water year’,
water supplies. South east England is under
usually marked by the onset of heavier rain.
greater pressure than most places; 8 million
As the dry weather of 2003 continued late
people already live there and more
into October, our concerns about water supply
development is planned. It is one of the driest
increased in a number of areas. Soil moisture
regions in the UK, with less available water per
levels were extremely low until early
person than Spain (265,000 compared to
November. This delayed the replenishment of
2,711,000 litres per person).47 Several
groundwater stores, which provide 80 per
reservoir proposals are being explored in the
cent of water supplies in some places, and
south and south east of England. Southern
levels across England and Wales fell by as
Water, South East Water, Portsmouth Water
much as 35 per cent. Record lows for river
and Mid Kent Water may have to build four
flows were recorded across the country from
new reservoirs by 2020 to maintain reliable
the Stour in Dorset to the Yscir in South Wales
water supplies, including the first ever Figure 8 In October 2004 water levels were still low in some places even
and the Soar in the Midlands. The River after a wet year
reservoir in Hampshire. We will be assessing
Rother in the south east was flowing at just
these plans and ensuring that existing water River levels Groundwater levels
eight per cent of average. By October 2004,
supplies are used efficiently. Above average (>150%) Above average
and despite a wetter than average summer,46
Average or above (100-150%) Below average
water levels were still low in some areas
Below average (50-99%) Aquifers
(Figure 8).
46
Rivers
Met Office: 2004 weather
(see www.met-office.gov.uk/climate/uk/2004/seasonal.html)
47 World Resources Institute 2004 (see www.wri.org/) Source: Environment Agency and UK Groundwater Forum, BGS and NERC
Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century 18
22. Use less water
i
Figure 9 Impact of river flow levels on chemical river Higher temperatures 48 Met Office News Release
quality, Anglian Region 2004: Another warm year
www.environment- Six of the ten warmest years on the UK record (see www.met-office.gov.uk/
Average river quality Mean annual flow corporate/pressoffice/2004/
agency.gov.uk/ were between 1995 and 2004. Globally, 2003 pr20041216.html)
was the second warmest year and 2004 the 49 Met Office News Release
subjects/waterres/ fourth since records began in 1861.48 In 2003: Great weather events –
Percentage of long-term average flow
B good 250
Temperature records fall (see
Europe, the August heat wave was the hottest www.metoffice.com/
corporate/pressoffice/anniver
200 for 500 years. In the UK, March to August
Water quality sary/records2003.html)
River quality grade
2003 were the warmest on record49 and 50 Met Office website August
We are concerned that lower river flows and 150 included the country’s hottest temperature 2003 – Hot spell (see
www.metoffice.com/climate/
groundwater levels will mean poorer water C ever of 38.5°C at Brogdale in Kent.50 Even uk/interesting/aug03maxtem
quality. We have seen higher nitrate levels in 100 2004, which many people perceived as a ps.html)
51 National Statistics (2003)
groundwater in drought years and poorer river disappointing summer, was the UK’s fifth
quality when flows are low in our Anglian 50 warmest yet.
Region (Figure 9). This has impacts on wildlife
D fair Temperatures in 2003 were warmer than the
and habitats, the cost of cleaning water for
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 long-term average by just over 1°C. This is
drinking, and the amenity value of our
well below predictions for 2080, but in the
countryside.
short time between 4 and 13 August 2003
Source: Environment Agency
more than two thousand people died in the
UK because of the heat.51 By 2080, the UK is
three times more likely to experience these
conditions and the hottest days could be in
the mid 40s.
19 Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century
23. Feeling the heat in
the city
Central London can be up to 7°C
Air pollution Figure 10 Air pollution in the UK 52 Wilby (2003)
warmer than the surrounding 53 National Statistics (2003)
countryside, especially at night, The heat wave in summer 2003 caused the Rural sites Urban sites 54 London Climate Change
Partnership (2002)
because of the heat island effect.52 poorest air quality for years (Figure 10). High Average number of days when air pollution is moderate 55 Kent (2003)
levels of pollution were measured on 10 or higher 56 Targa (2004)
57 Lee (1993)
In August 2003, temperatures on the consecutive days in August, and ozone 70 58 Donaldson et al. (2001)
Underground were so severe that the pollution reached its highest peak for more 59 Stedman (2004)
London Mayor offered a reward of than a decade in London.55 High levels of 60
£10,000 to anyone who could devise pollution were again recorded in late 50
July/early August 2004 as temperatures rose
an effective cooling solution. Parts of
to about 30°C.56 40
the M25 melted. The London Eye had
to be closed because the pods were Hot, dry summers favour the production of air 30
too hot. And more than a thousand pollutants like ground-level ozone, volatile
20
organic compounds and fine particles. An
people in London died in the heat.53
increase of just 1°C in summer has been 10
By 2080 temperatures in London are linked with a 14 per cent increase in ground-
0
predicted to be ‘outside comfort level ozone.57 Poor air quality can lead to 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
significant respiratory problems for sensitive
levels’ for people at work for 23 per
people58 and was responsible for up to 38 per
cent of working hours.54 Source: NETCEN on behalf of Defra
cent of the deaths caused by the August 2003
heat wave.59
Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century 20