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the climate is changing
time to get ready
We are the Environment Agency. It’s our job to look after your environment and
make it a better place – for you, and for future generations.
Your environment is the air you breathe, the water you drink and the ground
you walk on. Working with business, Government and society as a whole, we are
making your environment cleaner and healthier.
The Environment Agency. Out there, making your environment a better place.


Published by:

Environment Agency
Rio House
Waterside Drive, Aztec West
Almondsbury, Bristol BS32 4UD
Tel: 08708 506 506
Email: enquiries@environment-agency.gov.uk
www.environment-agency.gov.uk

© Environment Agency
All rights reserved. This document may be reproduced with
prior permission of the Environment Agency.
March 2005
Time to get ready
                                                                                                       Contents
The weather is changing. Temperatures and sea levels are rising.                                       The Issue 1
Summers are getting hotter, winters wetter. What does that mean to                                       The cause 4
                                                                                                         Creating a better place:
England and Wales? What will it be like to live here? Should you care?                                   limiting and adapting to
What can we – the Environment Agency – and you do about it?                                              climate change 5
                                                                                                         Putting a price on climate change 9
                                                                                                       Living in the twenty-first century 10
Here at the Environment Agency, climate change is our highest priority. We are building the
                                                                                                         Too much rain 11
country’s resilience to some of the biggest impacts: water shortages, flooding and environmental            Summer flooding 11
deterioration. And, in our regulation of industry, we are playing our part in addressing the causes.        Winter flooding 13
                                                                                                         Winter storms and
In this, our first national report on climate change, we answer some of the questions above by           sea level rise 15
using real examples of conditions that will become more common as the climate changes.                   Longer, drier, hotter summers 18
                                                                                                            Water supply 18
We report from our own point of view and focus on the threats rather than the opportunities,
                                                                                                            Water quality 19
because that is where we need to take action. This is also an invitation. We are making it clear            Higher temperatures 19
what we already do and what we want to do. If you are working on climate change, you need to                Air pollution 20
talk to us so that we can work together.                                                                 Biodiversity impacts 21
                                                                                                       Summary 23
I look forward to hearing from you.                                                                    Further information 26
                                                                                                       References 27




                  Barbara Young
                  Chief Executive, Environment Agency
The issue
                                 Climate change is the biggest threat to our future.   Climate change means that extreme weather
                                                                                       events will become more frequent and more
                                 Already in the first years of this century, floods,   dangerous. The severity will depend on the
                                                                                       amount of greenhouse gases released into
                                 storms and droughts have shown how vulnerable the     the atmosphere from now on, and how the
                                                                                       climate system responds. By 2100 we can
                                 UK is to the weather. We at the Environment Agency    expect global temperature increases of 1.4 to
                                 work with local communities all around England and    5.8˚C.1 At the upper end of this range,
                                                                                       changes are likely to be so extreme that it will
                                 Wales. We know from our on-the-ground experience      be difficult to cope with them. The European
                                                                                       Union (EU) has proposed that global
                                 the devastation that recent unusual weather events    temperature rises need to be limited to 2˚C
                                                                                       to avoid dangerous climate change.2
                                 have caused.                                          To achieve this, society must cut emissions
                                                                                       of carbon dioxide, the most common
                                                                                       greenhouse gas, now.




01   Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue
Find out about further
   i      sources of information
          where you see this symbol.




                                                  What might happen?                      It’s not all bad
                                                  Current projections for                 ‘Listen – I am as worried as anyone
It is now clear that climate change has been      the UK                                  else about global warming, but
                                                                                                                                            1
                                                                                                                                            2
                                                                                                                                                IPCC (2001)
                                                                                                                                                European Commission (2004)
triggered by increases in greenhouse gases, in                                            having lunch outdoors five times by               3   See for example the IPCC’s

particular those released from the use of         The UK Climate Impacts Programme        the middle of March has been a bit of                 Third Assessment Report
                                                           4                                                                                    (2001) and Oreskes (2004).
fossil fuels.3 The carbon dioxide already         scenarios indicate that:                a treat.’                                             The latter presents a review of
                                                                                                                                                the 928 papers published
released has determined the changes for the       • By the 2080s average annual           Nigel Slater, writing in the Observer,                about climate change in
next 30 to 40 years. But beyond that there is a     temperature across the UK may                                                               scientific journals between
                                                                                          14 April 2002                                         1993 and 2003
choice. Further changes depend on how well          rise by between 2 and 3.5˚C but                                                         4   UKCIP (2002a)
the causes are mitigated (reduced) from now         some areas could warm by as much      Global warming could bring
on. In the meantime, resilience to current          as 5˚C.                               opportunities. Most people will enjoy
climate variability and extreme weather must                                              warmer summers, provided they are
be developed.                                     • Heavy winter rainfall events that
                                                    occur every two years are expected    not too hot – but not the winter rain.
                                                    to increase in intensity by between   Farmers could use the longer growing
                                                    five and 20 per cent.                 season to expand their range of crops
       Find out more about our
   i   views on climate change.                   • Relative sea-level around the UK
                                                    could rise by as much as 86 cm in
                                                                                          – as long as there’s enough water.
                                                                                          Higher levels of carbon dioxide may
                                                                                          allow plants to grow faster – again if
       www.environment-                             southern England by the 2080s,        there’s enough water. Warmer
agency.gov.uk/ourviews/                             and extreme high sea levels will      temperatures will allow some plants
                                                    occur more frequently.                and animals to expand their range –
                                                  These scenarios are currently being     but for others it will contract.
                                                  updated. See www.ukcip.org.uk/


                                                                                                                         Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue     02
At the Environment                                                 Carlisle and surrounding
                                                                         area, 2005 winter flooding
      Agency, we are already                                                                                                              Stanhope and Haydon Bridge, winter 2005,
                                                                                                                                          highest ever river levels
      building the country’s                                        Rail between Harrogate and Leeds                                                 Yorkshire and County Durham
      resilience to some of the                                     2002, summer flash floods                                                         summer flash floods, 2000
                                                                                                                                                           Filey 2002, summer flooding
      most significant impacts                                                    Lancashire 2004,                                                         ‘worst in living memory’
                                                                                 summer flash floods
      of climate change.                                                                                                                                       Hull 2000, highest tidal
                                                            Industry hit by coastal flooding                                                                   surge for 40 years
                                                            in 2000 and 2001


                                                            Trefriw and Llanrwst 2004                                                                                         River Soar 2003, record
                                                            and 2005, winter flooding                                                                                         low river levels
      These impacts include (see Figure 1):                 and landslides
      • The strain on water availability for people         Snowdonia, less snow                                                                                                   Great Yarmouth
        and ecosystems brought by longer, hotter,                                                                                                                                  2000, tornado
                                                            Towns on the River
        drier summers and development in areas              Severn, winter flooding,                                           Harrow 2004,                                       Essex and Suffolk
        where water resources are scarce.                   2000 and 2004                                                      summer flash floods                           saltmarshes lost to the sea
      • An increase in flood risk caused by wetter          River Yscir, 2003
        winters, greater storminess and sea level           record low river levels                                                                                          London: 2002 summer
        rise. In England and Wales, 5 million                                                                                                                                flash floods, 2003
                                                            Rhoose 1989, highest windspeed                                                                                   heatwave. Thames
        people already live in flood risk areas and         ever recorded in England                                                                                         Barrier raised record
        about 12 per cent of farmland and a                 and Wales                                                                                                        11 times in 2001
        quarter of industrial sites are at risk. Some       Upton winter 2003,
        11 per cent of new homes are built in flood         groundwater flooding                                                                                     Brogdale 2003, highest
        risk areas in England.5                                                                                                                                      temperature ever in the UK
                                                            Boscastle 2004,
      • An increase in air and water pollution              summer flash                                                                                     River Rother 2003, low river flows
                                                                                                           River Stour 2003,
        triggered by longer, hotter summers.                floods                                         record low river levels               Chertsey, Wraysbury 2003, winter flooding

                                                                                                                                     River Itchen, low river flows
                                                                                               Looe, Penzance, Porthleven and
                                                                                                                                              South East 2000,
                                                                                               Falmouth 2004, coastal flooding
                                                                                                                                             summer flash floods

                                                            Figure 1 Recent weather events around England and Wales described in this report

03   Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue
The cause
Global climate change has been caused by an increase in greenhouse gases 6 in the
atmosphere. These gases come from both natural and man-made sources, but the
increase is the result of human activity7(Figure 2), mainly the release of carbon
dioxide from the use of fossil fuels such as coal, gas, oil, petrol and diesel.


                                                                                                                                                                                     5
Overall, UK emissions of carbon dioxide fell         Figure 2 The effect of human activity on global                Figure 3 UK carbon dioxide emissions, 1990 to 2003                    ODPM (2004a)
                                                                                                                                                                                     6    The main greenhouse gases
                                                     temperatures
between 1990 and 2002 (Figure 3). This was                                                                                                                                                are carbon dioxide, methane,
                                                                                                                    Index (1990 = 100)          Contributions to 2002 emissions           nitrous oxide,
largely the result of reductions made by the               Actual temperature          Natural effects and
                                                                                                                                                                                          perfluorocarbons (PFCs),
                                                                                       man-made effects             120                                          Domestic 16%
industries we regulate and a move away from                                                                                                                                               hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
                                                           Natural effects (solar and volcanic activity)                                                                                  and sulphur hexafluoride
coal and oil to gas-fired power stations. But                                                                                                                                             (SF6)
                                                                                                                    110
releases from both domestic sources and              Temperature change ˚C
                                                                                                                                                                                     7    See for example Stott et al.
                                                                                                                                                                Transport 24%             (2004)
transport rose over the same period, and the         1.0                                                                                                                             8
                                                                                                                    100                                                                   Due to an increase in gas
output from coal-fired power stations is now                                                                                                                                              prices and maintenance costs
rising again.8                                                                                                                                                                            at nuclear power stations in
                                                                                                                     90                                           Processes we            the last two years
                                                                                                                                                                                     9    Department for Transport
More and more of us are taking to the roads                                                                                                                       regulate 41%
                                                     0.5                                                                                                                                  White Paper (2004)
and skies. Traffic levels are predicted to rise by                                                                   80                                                              10   Measured in passenger-
40 per cent between 2000 and 20259 and                                                                                                                                                    kilometres, from 1995 base.
                                                                                                                                                                                          Transport 2000 (see
worldwide air travel is expected to double                                                                           70                                                                   www.transport2000.
between 1995 and 2015.10 But there is a cost         0.0                                                                                                                                  org.uk/factsandfigures/
                                                                                                                                                                                          Facts.asp)
for the climate. New technologies are reducing                                                                            1990           1994           1998           2002
the pollution from individual vehicles, but the
benefit is offset by the increasing volume of
                                                                                                                    2002 is the latest year of data available for domestic and
traffic. Transport is now the second most                   1850           1900           1950               2000
                                                                                                                    transport emissions. Emissions from transport do not include
important source of carbon dioxide emissions.                                                                       shipping or aviation. Source: NETCEN, Environment Agency
These include releases by aeroplanes in the          Source: IPCC (2001)
upper atmosphere, which have an important
effect compared to emissions at ground level.

                                                                                                                                                                  Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue   04
Creating a better place:
      limiting and adapting to climate change

      ‘The ultimate objective … is to achieve …             The climate is already changing and the UK          The UK is a world leader in the drive to reduce    11   See http://unfccc.int/ for
                                                                                                                                                                        more information on the
      stabilisation of greenhouse gas                       has to adapt to the inevitable effects. Global      carbon dioxide, but is not currently on track to        UNFCCC
      concentrations in the atmosphere at a level           carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced            meet national commitments by 2010. The             12   Energy Saving Trust (see
      that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic            and stabilised in order to limit the extent of      Prime Minister has said that ‘we have to do             www.est.org.uk/myhome/
                                                                                                                                                                        climatechange/forecasting/
      interference with the climate system. Such a          climate change to manageable levels. This           more to achieve our commitment to reduce                makeadifference/)
      level should be achieved within a time frame          means moving to low carbon energy –                 carbon dioxide emissions by 20 per cent by         13
                                                                                                                                                                   14
                                                                                                                                                                        DTI (2004)
                                                                                                                                                                        EurObser’ER (2004)
      to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to             increasing the use of renewable and other           2010.’15 We support more stringent effort, as      15   14 September 2004 speech.
      climate change, to ensure that food                   non-fossil fuel based energy, reducing demand       we think it is vital that the UK meets both this        www.number10.gov.uk/
                                                                                                                                                                        output/page6333.asp
      production is not threatened and to enable            and improving efficiency. In the long term,         commitment and the target of a 60 per cent         16   Defra December 2004 review
      economic development to proceed in a                  these measures will also save money – the           reduction in carbon dioxide by 2050.                    of the UK Climate Change
                                                                                                                                                                        Programme
      sustainable manner.’                                  average UK household could save £200 a year
                                                                                                                The Government has identified opportunities        17   Environment Agency (2004)
                                                            by improving energy efficiency, for example.12                                                         18   Environment Agency (2001c)
      United Nations Framework Convention on                                                                    to further reduce carbon dioxide releases and
      Climate Change.11                                     The UK has the largest potential for wind, wave     will publish a review of the Climate Change
                                                            and tidal energy in Europe, but currently           Programme this year after consultation.16
                                                            generates only three per cent of electricity from   We also support its proposal of a UK-wide
                                                            renewable resources,13 way behind Austria           adaptation framework that sets out clear
                                                            (59 per cent), Sweden (43 per cent), Portugal       objectives, roles and responsibilities for
                                                            (42 per cent) and Spain (26 per cent).14 If the     government, government bodies and other
                                                            UK is to meet the target of generating 20 per       stakeholders to ensure that the UK is
                                                            cent of electricity using renewable energy by       sufficiently prepared for climate change. Only
                                                            2020, rapid adoption of these renewable             by taking action now can we minimise the
                                                            energy schemes is needed.                           impact of climate change on our quality of life.

05   Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue
The results of decisions taken today to protect society
from a changing climate may last many decades or even
centuries. If they are to stand the test of time, they need
to be resilient to the future climate. Building resilience
into the early stages of big infrastructure projects for
example will save money in the long run.


Development in inappropriate locations can        But designing and building in ways that are
exacerbate the problems associated with flood     more water efficient and resilient to flooding
risk and limited water supply. To avoid           need not be costly. We believe that designing
creating problems in the future it is essential   in efficiency measures can reduce an average
that planners and developers work with us to      household’s water use by 25 per cent at no
ensure that development is located in the best    extra cost.
place and is resilient to climate change. We
                                                  As an organisation, we consider climate
need better application of national policy to
                                                  change in everything we do. We are defining
prevent inappropriate development on flood
                                                  and planning for the impacts of climate
plains or areas of flood risk – over half the
                                                  change on water, land, biodiversity, waste
planning proposals that we objected to last
                                                  management, flooding, air quality, health,
year lacked appropriate assessment of flood
                                                  emergency planning and how we monitor and
risk. Almost 12 per cent of the proposals we
                                                  report on the state of the environment. Our
objected to were approved contrary to our
                                                  science programme is helping us develop risk-
advice by local planning authorities (Figure
                                                  based responses to these impacts across all
4).17 In some areas water supplies are already
                                                  our functions.
almost fully used by the existing population.18                                                    Figure 4 Development applications granted against Environment Agency
                                                                                                   advice 2003/04
                                                                                                        Planned development sites    Planned development sites that lie in areas that
                                                                                                                                     have flooded in the past
                                                                                                        Major development            Minor development

                                                                                                   Source: Environment Agency


                                                                                                                                         Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue   06
Find out more about
           i         renewable energy
                     www.dti.gov.uk/renewables/
      Use less energy
      www.est.org.uk/
      Cut carbon emissions
      www.thecarbontrust.co.uk/



                                                                                                                                                     19   ODPM (2004c)
      In 2004 we organised and took part in                                                                                                          20   ODPM (2004c)
      ‘Exercise Triton 04’ with more than 60 other          The Thames Gateway
      organisations to test how well we would all
      respond to, and cope with, a national-scale           Climate change presents a particular challenge to the Thames Gateway.19 Much of
      flooding event. Improvements since the 1998           the area is in the floodplain of the Thames Estuary and – as in the rest of south east
      and 2000 floods were recognised. Valuable             England – the balance of water demand and supply is already fragile. Successful
      lessons were identified that will be followed         planning for the extra 120,000 homes planned to be built by 2016 20 needs to ensure
      through with action plans for all the                 that the development minimises both extra demand for water and flood risk. We are
      organisations involved to further strengthen
                                                            working with organisations such as the Thames Gateway London Partnership to
      the nation’s capability to deal with major
      flooding events.                                      ensure that this is the case. We have set up the Thames Estuary 2100 project, which
                                                            will produce a flood risk management strategy for the estuary for the next 100 years.
                                                            This will balance the need for existing and new development with the challenge of
               Make buildings more
           i   climate proof by flood-
               proofing (e.g. raising floor
                                                            rising sea levels and storm surges caused by climate change. We are working with
                                                            partners in the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany on some of the future challenges.
                                                            With all partners working together, the Gateway can be sustainable. The area is too
      height) and incorporating water                       important to miss this opportunity.
      efficiency measures
      www.practicalhelp.org.uk/
      housing/guidance/


07   Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue
How the Environment Agency fits in
We consider climate change in everything we do and have a major role
in both limiting the scale of climate change by addressing its causes,
and limiting its impact by adapting to change.


Addressing the causes:                       Limiting the impact by adapting:            • We regulate and protect fisheries and
                                                                                                                                               21
                                                                                           promote recreation and navigation.                       See www.environment-
• Over 40 per cent of the carbon dioxide     • We license water use, balancing the                                                                  agency.gov.uk/business/
                                                                                                                                                    444217/444663/298441/
  released in the UK comes from                various demands for drinking, for         • We are one of the organisations involved                 for details about pollution
  industries that we regulate. We consider     industry and for the environment.           in protecting and managing the marine                    prevention and control (PPC)
  their energy use and limit releases of                                                   environment.                                             permitting
                                             • We are the largest flood risk                                                                   22   See www.environment-
  pollutants.21                                                                                                                                     agency.gov.uk/business/
                                               management authority in England and       • We are building climate change into our                  444217/590750/590838/55
• We are running the EU Emissions Trading      Wales, responsible for 36,000 km of         catchment-scale plans for the Water                      6574/ for details about the
  Scheme (ETS) in England and Wales.22         flood defences along rivers and coast.      Framework Directive, which will allow us                 EU ETS

                                                                                           to tackle its impacts on water, land and
• We promote adoption of low carbon          • We provide a 24-hour flood forecasting
                                                                                           biodiversity in an all-embracing way.
  technologies and support the Carbon          and warning service, raise public
  Trust and Energy Saving Trust. We only       awareness and promote uptake of           • We operate monitoring and surveillance
  use renewable energy in our 2,000 sites      Kitemarked flood-proofing measures.         programmes to improve our
  and facilities.                                                                          understanding of climate change.
                                             • We advise planners and developers on
• We will be working with a government-        the flood risk of new developments.       • We work with many other organisations,
  led multi-agency cross-sector                                                            such as central government, local
                                             • We protect wetland habitats and
  communication partnership to help                                                        councils, planning authorities and the
                                               species.
  people, industry and businesses                                                          emergency services. We are involved in
  understand how serious the situation is    • We aim to prevent or reduce the risk of     all of the regional climate change
  and what action can be taken.                pollution wherever possible, and to         partnerships, supporting their work to
                                               ensure that it gets cleaned up if           develop and promote the need for
                                               pollution occurs.                           adaptation responses.


                                                                                                                            Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue   08
Putting a price on climate change
      It will be expensive to build resilience to climate change. Reducing the
      risk of tidal and river flooding already costs us £0.4 billion a year.


      We estimate that over the next 80 years the           • 1998 – Easter floods led to the evacuation      The Association of British Insurers (ABI)       23   Foresight Flooding 2004 (see
                                                                                                                                                                   www.environment-
      cost of engineered flood defences to meet the           of 1,500 people from their homes, and a         estimates that the increased cost to                 agency.gov.uk/subjects/
      demands of climate change in England and                cost to the insurance industry of around        households due to extreme weather events             flood/763964/)
      Wales will be £22 to £75 billion.                       £500 million.                                   will be up to 4 per cent extra each year.26     24   Association of British Insurers
                                                                                                                                                                   (ABI) (2004a)
                                                                                                              The things we own are increasing in value, so   25   Data provided by ABI, 2005
      It is worth doing. Flood damage already costs         • 2000 – Heavy autumn rainfall led to 10,000
                                                                                                              we have more to lose.                           26   ABI (2004b)
      about £1 billion a year and our flood risk              flooded properties, and nearly £1 billion in
      management prevents further yearly damages              insurance claims.
      of £3.4 billion. But we can’t defend
                                                            • 2003 – Soaring temperatures combined                     Insurance may get more
                                                                                                                 i
      everywhere. Damage costs from flooding are
                                                              with low rainfall doubled the previous year’s
      predicted to be as much as £25 billion under a
                                                              insurance claims for subsidence to
                                                                                                                       expensive for everyone.
      worst-case scenario in the 2080s.23                                                                              The ABI agree it is time
                                                              £390 million.
      Since 1998 the cost of repairing the damage
                                                            • 2004 – Torrential rain and flash flooding       to bring planning for climate
      from extreme weather events and floods has
                                                              across Britain cost over £300 million in the    change into the mainstream of
      increased by 60 per cent.24
                                                              first nine months alone.25                      business life.
                                                                                                              www.abi.org.uk/climatechange/




09   Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue
Living in the
twenty-first century
‘It’s the extreme weather and climate events that will have
some of the most severe impacts on human society as the
climate changes.’
Jerry Meehl, US National Center for Atmospheric Research


In the following sections, we look at the conditions many
people have already experienced this century. While these
individual events cannot be attributed to climate change now,
they are conditions that we expect to become more common
as the climate changes.



                                                           Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century   10
Too much rain
      This century has started with the third wettest year since records began in 1766.28
      In autumn 2000 some places flooded for the first time in decades. Torrential rain in
      August 2004 caused some of the worst flood events ever recorded in Britain.


      Summer flooding                                                                                                                     Check out our Flood
                                                                                                                                   i
                                                                               At the end of July 2002 rail services between                                        27   UKCIP (2002a)
                                                                                                                                                                    28   Met Office data
                                                                               Harrogate and Leeds were affected by severe                Warning service online
      On the whole, we expect that summers will be                                                                                                                  29   Hydrographic information –
                                                                               flooding. In August 2002, in Yorkshire, the                                               2002 (see www.nwl.ac.uk/
      drier.27 But when it does rain, it will probably                                                                                    and do something to            ih/nrfa/monthly_summaries/
                                                                               River Wharfe exceeded its previous August
      rain harder. Parched soils are unable to absorb                                                                                                                    2002/08/summary.html)
                                                                               flow maximum in a 47-year record and Filey        protect yourself if your home is   30   North Cornwall District
      heavy rain fast enough, resulting in localised,
                                                                               experienced ‘the worst flooding in living         at risk.                                Council (2004)
      but severe, flooding.                                                                                                                                         31   Catovsky/ ABI (2004)
                                                                               memory’. In the same month, there were                                               32   Defra, Thames Water,
      In 2000 the May bank holiday was washed out                              localised floods in the London area,29 with       www.environment-                        Environment Agency, Greater
                                                                                                                                                                         London Authority and Ofwat
      as rivers burst their banks in south east                                some places receiving 60 mm of rain in just       agency.gov.uk/subjects/flood/
      England, causing local flooding. Unusually                               one hour. The rail network was badly
      severe summer rain in June 2000 caused                                   disrupted.
      1,000 homes to be flooded across Yorkshire
                                                                               Heavy rain and flash flooding hit the headlines
      and County Durham. In August of the same
                                                                               again in summer 2004. At the beginning of
      year, a tornado rained a cloudburst of fish on
                                                                               August, flash floods devastated Boscastle in
      the beach in Great Yarmouth, Norfolk.
                                                                               north Cornwall. Lancashire was also badly
                                                                               affected. In Harrow, an hour of heavy rain
                                                                               submerged roads under 18 cm of floodwater.




11   Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century
Flood devastates village – Boscastle                                            The London storm sewage problem
On the high ground around Boscastle, 196 mm of rain fell in just four           London’s Victorian sewerage system is easily overloaded during storms.
hours on 16 August 2004. The local topography channelled the rainfall           Properties can be flooded and large amounts of raw sewage released
into the River Valency, which broke its banks, and three metre high             into the tidal section of the River Thames. The ecological consequences
floodwater rushed through the village devastating everything in its             can be severe. In August 2004 heavy rainfall led to appalling
path. Nearby Crackington Haven, Canworthy Water, Helebridge and Bude            pollution events that killed tens of thousands of fish, left sewage
were also hit. One hundred properties in the area were flooded,                 debris and a foul smell along the foreshore, and significantly increased
hundreds of people were evacuated from their homes, and over a                  E. coli levels in the river.
hundred people were plucked from roofs, trees and vehicles in the
                                                                                • Every year 12 million tonnes of untreated sewage enter the
largest peacetime rescue in the history of mainland Britain. Trees were
                                                                                  river because of storm overflows.
uprooted and four bridges were washed away. Four buildings collapsed
or had to be demolished and at least 70 cars were washed into the sea.          • A single storm can create 3 million tonnes of sewage overflow.
Over 50 of our staff helped to handle the crisis.                               • About 10,000 tonnes of sewage solids are discharged to the river
                                                                                  each year. The solids include paper, faecal matter, sanitary items,
The repair bill for this single event will be in the millions. Infrastructure     condoms and hypodermic needles.
damage alone could cost £2 million.30 Insured damage to buildings and
                                                                                • These discharges occur 50–60 times per year.
cars is estimated at £4–6 million, with a further £5–10 million in
business interruption.31 Estimates of uninsured losses to businesses and        These problems are the result of a lack of capacity within London’s
individuals have not yet been recorded.                                         sewer network, and a solution to the problem is being developed
                                                                                by the Thames Tideway Strategic Partnership.32 It will need
Flood defences can be breached during extreme rainfall events.
                                                                                substantial investment.
Permanent flood defences are not always suitable for reducing the risk
from flash flooding. Instead, we need to make the best use of emergency
plans, flood warning schemes and advice campaigns, controls over
development and temporary defences to reduce the risk from flooding.




                                                                                                           Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century   12
Winters have become significantly wetter
      since records began in 1766 – an average
      increase equivalent to a month of extra
      rainfall.


      Figure 5 Flood levels in the River Wye at Erwood, Wales                           Winter flooding                                   information and helpline service. Almost a
            Peaks over the threshold              Four year moving average
                                                                                                                                          third of our staff were involved in dealing with
                                                                                        Winters are becoming wetter and more rain is
            Overall trend                                                                                                                 the floods.36
                                                                                        falling in heavy downpours.33 Six of the seven
       Number of peaks per year over the threshold*                                     rivers we use to indicate flooding show an        At New Year 2003, 30 houses were flooded by
                                                                                        increase in frequency of peak river levels (see   high groundwater levels in the area around
       9
                                                                                        Figure 5 for example).                            Upton in Hampshire. The Thames had its
       8                                                                                                                                  highest flood since 1947 and many properties
                                                                                        The autumn and winter floods of 2000 were
       7                                                                                                                                  were flooded in Chertsey, Wraysbury and
                                                                                        the worst in some areas for 270 years and
                                                                                                                                          surrounding places.
       6                                                                                devastated the lives of thousands of people.
                                                                                        In total, 700 places were hit and 10,000          In February 2004, Trefriw and Llanrwst (Conwy)
       5
                                                                                        properties were flooded, some five times.34       were cut off, buildings were flooded in 60 cm
       4                                                                                Significant areas of farmland were flooded        of water and five schools were closed as
       3                                                                                causing an estimated loss of up to £500           floodwaters poured off Snowdonia. Main
                                                                                        million to the farming industry.35 Parts of the   roads were cut off by associated landslides.37
       2
                                                                                        M1, M3, M20, M23 and M25 were shut, and           These villages were flooded again when the
       1                                                                                railway services throughout Wales, southern,      River Conwy burst its banks in the New Year
       0
                                                                                        north east and south west England were            flooding of 2005.38
                1935     1945      1955     1965     1975     1985      1995     2005   disrupted. Sewerage systems in many areas
                                                                                                                                          Heavy rainfall in early January 2005 caused
                                                                                        were overwhelmed, causing up to 30 per cent
                                                                                                                                          extensive, and in places repeated, flooding
      *The level exceeded on average between 1980 and 2000                              of all property floods. Over half a million
                                                                                                                                          across the north of England. High spring tides
      Source: Environment Agency                                                        people called our Floodline, our 24-hour


13   Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century
Saving the Severn                       Boats replace traffic
                                                   In response to the devastating
                                                                                           in New Year flooding,
                                                   autumn 2000 floods, we are working      January 2005
                                                   with the Department for Environment,
                                                                                           In the second weekend of 2005,
                                                   Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), local
                                                                                           Carlisle was hit by its worst flooding
                                                   authorities and Severn Trent Water to
                                                                                           since 1822. Almost 2,000 properties
                                                   reduce flood risk along the length of
                                                                                           were flooded in Carlisle when the
                                                   the River Severn. We are looking at
                                                                                           River Eden and its tributaries
increased the risk of flooding for many. The       the causes of flooding, reviewing the                                                             33   UKCIP (2002b)
                                                                                           overtopped 8 km of flood defences, in                     34   Environment Agency (2001a)
worst affected area was Cumbria. Across the        performance of existing flood                                                                     35   NFU press release, 5 January
Pennines, over a hundred properties were                                                   some places by more than a metre.
                                                   defences and assessing the                                                                             2001
flooded around the River Tyne and in the                                                   Thousands of people were evacuated                        36   Environment Agency (2001b)
                                                   effectiveness and viability of flood                                                              37   BBC News 3 February 2004
Yorkshire Dales. River levels on the upper Tyne                                            from their homes and police and fire                      38   BBC News 10 January 2005
                                                   management options for the next 50
catchment at Stanhope and Haydon Bridge                                                    stations were flooded.                                         (see http://news.bbc.co.uk/

were the highest ever recorded. Nearby,            years. We are also addressing wider                                                                    1/hi/wales/4159471.stm)
                                                                                           Communications were severely                              39   Environment Agency (2001b)
11,000 properties in Hexham were without           issues such as changes in land use,                                                               40   Planning Policy Guidance 25
                                                                                           disrupted as the town was virtually                            (PPG25), section A7 (ODPM
mains water for days as, in the midst of all the   farming practice, new development
                                                                                           cut off by floodwater. About 70,000                            2004b)
flooding, a water main was damaged.                and urban drainage.
                                                                                           properties experienced power cuts,
We delivered 1,437 flood warnings and              The benefits of this work have          telephone lines were down and only
protected 280,000 homes from flooding in           already been seen. New defences in      one mobile phone operator was
2000 alone.39 Many more may need protecting                                                functioning. As well as the serious
                                                   Worcester, Ironbridge, Bewdley and
in the future. We expect flood flows to be 20
                                                   Shrewsbury saved about £20 million      flooding in Carlisle, flooding occurred
per cent higher by 2050.40 Just 15 cm of fast
                                                   of damage and disruption to             in the towns of Cockermouth,
flowing water will knock adults off their feet,
60 cm of water will float a car, and 90 cm of      home and business owners during         Keswick, Appleby and Kendal.
floodwater in an average house can cause up        flooding in 2004.                       Numerous isolated properties and
to £30,000 of damage.                                                                      villages also suffered flooding.




                                                                                                           Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century   14
Winter storms and sea level rise
      As much as 65 per cent of all flood risk is from coastal and tidal flooding. Across
      England and Wales, over a million properties are already at risk. As storms and sea
      levels increase, more properties, businesses and people will be affected (Figure 6).


      Sea levels around the UK are now about                                   threatening lives. Not all flooding will be      Figure 6 Low-lying land in England and Wales
      10 cm higher than they were in 1900.41 At the                            temporary; some places, such as Selsey in        Height above current
      same time, the south east of England is                                  Sussex, could become islands again if our        sea level (metres)
      sinking at a rate of 15 to 20 cm a century.42                            flood defences don’t keep pace with climate
                                                                                                                                      <1
      And the average number of winter storms has                              change. Other areas, such as Essex, have
                                                                                                                                      1-2
      increased significantly, with the largest                                already lost vast areas of land under the sea.
                                                                                                                                      2-3
      increases in the south.43 New records for wind                                                                                  3-4
                                                                               We use the latest available technology to                                                The Humber
      speeds in England and Wales were set by                                                                                         4-5
                                                                               monitor sea conditions 24 hours a day to
      124 mph (200 km/hour) gusts at Rhoose                                                                                           >5
                                                                               forecast coastal flooding and trigger the
      (South Glamorgan) in October 1989.44 For
                                                                               closure of tidal barriers. Clear warning
      some east coast locations, extreme sea levels
                                                                               systems will continue to be an essential
      (storm surges) could occur between 10 and
                                                                               element of flood risk management to enable
      20 times more frequently by the 2080s than
                                                                               people to take action to protect themselves
      they do now.45
                                                                               and their properties. In some cases prompt
      Coastal flooding such as that seen in Cornwall                           evacuation will also be necessary.
      at Looe, Penzance, Porthleven, Flushing and
      Falmouth on 27 October 2004 will become
                                                                                                                                                                               London
      increasingly common, damaging property and

                                                                                                                                                                           Selsey




15   Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century
The world’s largest movable flood
                                                                                                                                                                         barrier – the Thames Barrier –
                                                                                                                                                                         has been raised 55 times against
                                                                                                                                                                         tidal surges in the 20 years since
                                                                                                                                                                         it was built, half of which were in
                                                                                                                                                                         the last five years.

 1983 1984 1985 1986                1987 1988 1989 1990           1991   1992 1993       1994     1995 1996   1997   1998 1999   2000 2001   2002 2003 2004


 Figure 7 Thames Barrier closures against tidal surges, 1983 to 2004          Source: Environment Agency                               = one raising of the Barrier




                                                                                                                                        Check if you are at risk of
                                                                                                                                   i
 London and the Thames Estuary                                      Hull and the Humber Estuary                                                                                                 41   Proudman Oceanographic
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Laboratory (see www.
                                                         Canvey
                                                                                                                                        flooding by using our flood                                  pol.ac.uk/ntslf/data.html).
                                                                                                                                                                                                     See also our sea level change
                                  Dagenham
                                                         Island
                                                                                                           Hull                         risk maps.                                                   environmental indicator
  Westminster                                                                                                                                                                                        (www. environment-
                                                                                                                                 www.environment-agency.gov.uk/                                      agency.gov.
                                                                                                                                                                                                     uk/yourenv/eff/natural_
     Richmond
                                                                                                                     Grimsby
                                                                                                                                 flood/                                                              forces/sealevels/)
                                                                                                                                                                                                42   During the last glaciation, the
                                                                                                                                                                                                     mass of ice pushed the north
                                                                     Doncaster                                                                                                                       west of the UK down which in
                                                                                                                                                                                                     turn raised the south east.
                                                                                                                                         Foresight – a project to
                                                                                                                                   i
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Even though the ice sheets
                                                                                                                                                                                                     are long gone, the land is still
                                                                                                                                         produce a long-term vision                                  rebounding – the north west
                                                                                                                                                                                                     is rising and the south east
 Selsey
                                                                                                                                         for the future of flood and                                 sinking. This is called
                                                                                                                                                                                                     isostatic rebound
                                 Chichester                                                                                      coastal defence in the UK.                                     43   Met Office/Hadley Centre
                                                                                                                                                                                                     (2003)
                                                                                                                                 www.foresight.gov.uk/fcd.html                                  44   Met Office: Extreme weather
                                                                                                                                                                                                     (see www.met-
                                                                                                                                                                                                     office.gov.uk/climate/uk/loca
                                          Bognor Regis                                                                                                                                               tion/england/index.html and
                                                                                                                                                                                                     www.met-office.gov.uk/
                                                                                                                                                                                                     climate/uk/location/wales/in
                                 Selsey                                                                                                                                                              dex.html)
                                                                                                                                                                                                45   UKCIP (2002a and 2002b)


© Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency,
100026380, 2005.

                                                                                                                                                      Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century     16
A safe climate for                                                        Turning the tide for Hull
           industry?                                                                 One of the highest tidal surges for four decades hit Hull in
           Large tracts of the north west’s                                          January 2005. Water levels rose to about 90 cm above
           industry – including petrochemicals                                       normal levels – about the same height that flooded the city
           and a nuclear power plant – are                                           centre in 1969. But the city was saved from certain flooding
           vulnerable to tidal surges and river                                      by our tidal barrier, which protected about 1,800 properties
           flooding because they are only just                                       and saved £250 million worth of damages.
           above the existing high tide sea level
                                                                                     Sea level rises, storm surges and intense erosion are a
           or located on flat, low-lying land.
                                                                                     threat to the whole Humber Estuary. Over 300,000 people
                                                                                                                                                               Set up your flood plan –
                                                                                                                                                         i
           In 2001, high tides and storms                                            live on the Humber’s floodplain, protected by flood
           flooded Bromborough sewage                                                defences. After the Thames, the Humber has the greatest                   more businesses flood
           treatment works on Merseyside,                                            concentration of people and property on a tidal floodplain in             than burn down, yet most
           shorting out all power and damaging                                       the UK.                                                           businesses have no flood plans in
           the infrastructure. It was several                                                                                                          place.
                                                                                     We are now putting into effect the Humber Estuary Shoreline
           weeks before the plant was fully
                                                                                     Management Plan to combat the effects of climate change.          www.environment-agency.gov.uk/
           operational again. Fortunately,
                                                                                     In Hull, existing defences will be heightened. At Alkborough
           although the potential for                                                                                                                  subjects/flood/
                                                                                     some embankments will be set back, allowing the sea to
           environmental damage was high the
                                                                                     reclaim about 1,000 hectares of farmland; defending the
           actual impact was not significant. In
                                                                                     shore by neutralising the energy of waves and creating an
           2000, floodwaters from the River
                                                                                     intertidal habitat. As part of the project the Environment
           Gowy reached a new part of the Gowy
                                                                                     Agency, English Nature, the Countryside Agency and North
           landfill site (near Chester) and mixed
                                                                                     Lincolnshire Council are creating 440 hectares of habitat
           with contaminated leachate. This cost
                                                                                     where the Rivers Ouse and Trent meet to replace ‘coastal
           the company about £50,000 to tanker
                                                                                     squeeze’ losses in the inner part of the estuary and tidal
           away and dispose of safely. A major
                                                                                     washlands. There will be opportunities for countryside
           programme of works has now been
                                                                                     leisure activities that will connect with the Waters’ Edge area
           completed to reduce the risk of this
                                                                                     at Barton upon Humber.
           happening again.


17   Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century
Longer, drier, hotter summers
By 2080 the high temperatures experienced in 2003 may
seem cool. High summer temperatures could cause ill health
and even death, and poorer air and water quality. We think
summers will also be drier, and what rain does fall is likely to
be in intense bursts. Droughts will be more frequent.


Water supply                                       Periods of drought spanning more than one
                                                   season or one year present a serious threat to
October is the start of the annual ‘water year’,
                                                   water supplies. South east England is under
usually marked by the onset of heavier rain.
                                                   greater pressure than most places; 8 million
As the dry weather of 2003 continued late
                                                   people already live there and more
into October, our concerns about water supply
                                                   development is planned. It is one of the driest
increased in a number of areas. Soil moisture
                                                   regions in the UK, with less available water per
levels were extremely low until early
                                                   person than Spain (265,000 compared to
November. This delayed the replenishment of
                                                   2,711,000 litres per person).47 Several
groundwater stores, which provide 80 per
                                                   reservoir proposals are being explored in the
cent of water supplies in some places, and
                                                   south and south east of England. Southern
levels across England and Wales fell by as
                                                   Water, South East Water, Portsmouth Water
much as 35 per cent. Record lows for river
                                                   and Mid Kent Water may have to build four
flows were recorded across the country from
                                                   new reservoirs by 2020 to maintain reliable
the Stour in Dorset to the Yscir in South Wales
                                                   water supplies, including the first ever                         Figure 8 In October 2004 water levels were still low in some places even
and the Soar in the Midlands. The River                                                                             after a wet year
                                                   reservoir in Hampshire. We will be assessing
Rother in the south east was flowing at just
                                                   these plans and ensuring that existing water                        River levels                                          Groundwater levels
eight per cent of average. By October 2004,
                                                   supplies are used efficiently.                                      Above average (>150%)                                 Above average
and despite a wetter than average summer,46
                                                                                                                       Average or above (100-150%)                           Below average
water levels were still low in some areas
                                                                                                                       Below average (50-99%)                                Aquifers
(Figure 8).
                                                   46
                                                                                                                       Rivers
                                                        Met Office: 2004 weather
                                                        (see www.met-office.gov.uk/climate/uk/2004/seasonal.html)
                                                   47   World Resources Institute 2004 (see www.wri.org/)           Source: Environment Agency and UK Groundwater Forum, BGS and NERC


                                                                                                                                      Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century   18
Use less water
           i
                                                                                        Figure 9 Impact of river flow levels on chemical river                                                     Higher temperatures                             48   Met Office News Release
                                                                                        quality, Anglian Region                                                                                                                                         2004: Another warm year
              www.environment-                                                                                                                                                                     Six of the ten warmest years on the UK record        (see www.met-office.gov.uk/
                                                                                                       Average river quality       Mean annual flow                                                                                                     corporate/pressoffice/2004/
              agency.gov.uk/                                                                                                                                                                       were between 1995 and 2004. Globally, 2003           pr20041216.html)
                                                                                                                                                                                                   was the second warmest year and 2004 the        49   Met Office News Release
      subjects/waterres/                                                                                                                                                                           fourth since records began in 1861.48 In             2003: Great weather events –




                                                                                                                                                            Percentage of long-term average flow
                                                                                                   B good                                             250
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Temperature records fall (see
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Europe, the August heat wave was the hottest         www.metoffice.com/
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        corporate/pressoffice/anniver
                                                                                                                                                      200                                          for 500 years. In the UK, March to August
      Water quality                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     sary/records2003.html)
                                                                             River quality grade




                                                                                                                                                                                                   2003 were the warmest on record49 and           50   Met Office website August
      We are concerned that lower river flows and                                                                                                     150                                          included the country’s hottest temperature           2003 – Hot spell (see
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        www.metoffice.com/climate/
      groundwater levels will mean poorer water                                                    C                                                                                               ever of 38.5°C at Brogdale in Kent.50 Even           uk/interesting/aug03maxtem
      quality. We have seen higher nitrate levels in                                                                                                  100                                          2004, which many people perceived as a               ps.html)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   51   National Statistics (2003)
      groundwater in drought years and poorer river                                                                                                                                                disappointing summer, was the UK’s fifth
      quality when flows are low in our Anglian                                                                                                       50                                           warmest yet.
      Region (Figure 9). This has impacts on wildlife
                                                                                                   D fair                                                                                          Temperatures in 2003 were warmer than the
      and habitats, the cost of cleaning water for
                                                                                                   1990     1992   1994    1996   1998   2000 2002                                                 long-term average by just over 1°C. This is
      drinking, and the amenity value of our
                                                                                                                                                                                                   well below predictions for 2080, but in the
      countryside.
                                                                                                                                                                                                   short time between 4 and 13 August 2003
                                                                                        Source: Environment Agency
                                                                                                                                                                                                   more than two thousand people died in the
                                                                                                                                                                                                   UK because of the heat.51 By 2080, the UK is
                                                                                                                                                                                                   three times more likely to experience these
                                                                                                                                                                                                   conditions and the hottest days could be in
                                                                                                                                                                                                   the mid 40s.

19   Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century
Feeling the heat in
the city
Central London can be up to 7°C
                                          Air pollution                                     Figure 10 Air pollution in the UK                                   52   Wilby (2003)
warmer than the surrounding                                                                                                                                     53   National Statistics (2003)
countryside, especially at night,         The heat wave in summer 2003 caused the                Rural sites                 Urban sites                        54   London Climate Change
                                                                                                                                                                     Partnership (2002)
because of the heat island effect.52      poorest air quality for years (Figure 10). High   Average number of days when air pollution is moderate               55   Kent (2003)
                                          levels of pollution were measured on 10           or higher                                                           56   Targa (2004)
                                                                                                                                                                57   Lee (1993)
In August 2003, temperatures on the       consecutive days in August, and ozone             70                                                                  58   Donaldson et al. (2001)
Underground were so severe that the       pollution reached its highest peak for more                                                                           59   Stedman (2004)

London Mayor offered a reward of          than a decade in London.55 High levels of         60

£10,000 to anyone who could devise        pollution were again recorded in late             50
                                          July/early August 2004 as temperatures rose
an effective cooling solution. Parts of
                                          to about 30°C.56                                  40
the M25 melted. The London Eye had
to be closed because the pods were        Hot, dry summers favour the production of air     30

too hot. And more than a thousand         pollutants like ground-level ozone, volatile
                                                                                            20
                                          organic compounds and fine particles. An
people in London died in the heat.53
                                          increase of just 1°C in summer has been           10

By 2080 temperatures in London are        linked with a 14 per cent increase in ground-
                                                                                             0
predicted to be ‘outside comfort          level ozone.57 Poor air quality can lead to            1987      1991       1995        1999         2003
                                          significant respiratory problems for sensitive
levels’ for people at work for 23 per
                                          people58 and was responsible for up to 38 per
cent of working hours.54                                                                    Source: NETCEN on behalf of Defra
                                          cent of the deaths caused by the August 2003
                                          heat wave.59



                                                                                                                      Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century   20
Climate change
Climate change
Climate change
Climate change
Climate change
Climate change
Climate change
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Climate change

  • 1. the climate is changing time to get ready
  • 2. We are the Environment Agency. It’s our job to look after your environment and make it a better place – for you, and for future generations. Your environment is the air you breathe, the water you drink and the ground you walk on. Working with business, Government and society as a whole, we are making your environment cleaner and healthier. The Environment Agency. Out there, making your environment a better place. Published by: Environment Agency Rio House Waterside Drive, Aztec West Almondsbury, Bristol BS32 4UD Tel: 08708 506 506 Email: enquiries@environment-agency.gov.uk www.environment-agency.gov.uk © Environment Agency All rights reserved. This document may be reproduced with prior permission of the Environment Agency. March 2005
  • 3. Time to get ready Contents The weather is changing. Temperatures and sea levels are rising. The Issue 1 Summers are getting hotter, winters wetter. What does that mean to The cause 4 Creating a better place: England and Wales? What will it be like to live here? Should you care? limiting and adapting to What can we – the Environment Agency – and you do about it? climate change 5 Putting a price on climate change 9 Living in the twenty-first century 10 Here at the Environment Agency, climate change is our highest priority. We are building the Too much rain 11 country’s resilience to some of the biggest impacts: water shortages, flooding and environmental Summer flooding 11 deterioration. And, in our regulation of industry, we are playing our part in addressing the causes. Winter flooding 13 Winter storms and In this, our first national report on climate change, we answer some of the questions above by sea level rise 15 using real examples of conditions that will become more common as the climate changes. Longer, drier, hotter summers 18 Water supply 18 We report from our own point of view and focus on the threats rather than the opportunities, Water quality 19 because that is where we need to take action. This is also an invitation. We are making it clear Higher temperatures 19 what we already do and what we want to do. If you are working on climate change, you need to Air pollution 20 talk to us so that we can work together. Biodiversity impacts 21 Summary 23 I look forward to hearing from you. Further information 26 References 27 Barbara Young Chief Executive, Environment Agency
  • 4. The issue Climate change is the biggest threat to our future. Climate change means that extreme weather events will become more frequent and more Already in the first years of this century, floods, dangerous. The severity will depend on the amount of greenhouse gases released into storms and droughts have shown how vulnerable the the atmosphere from now on, and how the climate system responds. By 2100 we can UK is to the weather. We at the Environment Agency expect global temperature increases of 1.4 to work with local communities all around England and 5.8˚C.1 At the upper end of this range, changes are likely to be so extreme that it will Wales. We know from our on-the-ground experience be difficult to cope with them. The European Union (EU) has proposed that global the devastation that recent unusual weather events temperature rises need to be limited to 2˚C to avoid dangerous climate change.2 have caused. To achieve this, society must cut emissions of carbon dioxide, the most common greenhouse gas, now. 01 Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue
  • 5. Find out about further i sources of information where you see this symbol. What might happen? It’s not all bad Current projections for ‘Listen – I am as worried as anyone It is now clear that climate change has been the UK else about global warming, but 1 2 IPCC (2001) European Commission (2004) triggered by increases in greenhouse gases, in having lunch outdoors five times by 3 See for example the IPCC’s particular those released from the use of The UK Climate Impacts Programme the middle of March has been a bit of Third Assessment Report 4 (2001) and Oreskes (2004). fossil fuels.3 The carbon dioxide already scenarios indicate that: a treat.’ The latter presents a review of the 928 papers published released has determined the changes for the • By the 2080s average annual Nigel Slater, writing in the Observer, about climate change in next 30 to 40 years. But beyond that there is a temperature across the UK may scientific journals between 14 April 2002 1993 and 2003 choice. Further changes depend on how well rise by between 2 and 3.5˚C but 4 UKCIP (2002a) the causes are mitigated (reduced) from now some areas could warm by as much Global warming could bring on. In the meantime, resilience to current as 5˚C. opportunities. Most people will enjoy climate variability and extreme weather must warmer summers, provided they are be developed. • Heavy winter rainfall events that occur every two years are expected not too hot – but not the winter rain. to increase in intensity by between Farmers could use the longer growing five and 20 per cent. season to expand their range of crops Find out more about our i views on climate change. • Relative sea-level around the UK could rise by as much as 86 cm in – as long as there’s enough water. Higher levels of carbon dioxide may allow plants to grow faster – again if www.environment- southern England by the 2080s, there’s enough water. Warmer agency.gov.uk/ourviews/ and extreme high sea levels will temperatures will allow some plants occur more frequently. and animals to expand their range – These scenarios are currently being but for others it will contract. updated. See www.ukcip.org.uk/ Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue 02
  • 6. At the Environment Carlisle and surrounding area, 2005 winter flooding Agency, we are already Stanhope and Haydon Bridge, winter 2005, highest ever river levels building the country’s Rail between Harrogate and Leeds Yorkshire and County Durham resilience to some of the 2002, summer flash floods summer flash floods, 2000 Filey 2002, summer flooding most significant impacts Lancashire 2004, ‘worst in living memory’ summer flash floods of climate change. Hull 2000, highest tidal Industry hit by coastal flooding surge for 40 years in 2000 and 2001 Trefriw and Llanrwst 2004 River Soar 2003, record and 2005, winter flooding low river levels These impacts include (see Figure 1): and landslides • The strain on water availability for people Snowdonia, less snow Great Yarmouth and ecosystems brought by longer, hotter, 2000, tornado Towns on the River drier summers and development in areas Severn, winter flooding, Harrow 2004, Essex and Suffolk where water resources are scarce. 2000 and 2004 summer flash floods saltmarshes lost to the sea • An increase in flood risk caused by wetter River Yscir, 2003 winters, greater storminess and sea level record low river levels London: 2002 summer rise. In England and Wales, 5 million flash floods, 2003 Rhoose 1989, highest windspeed heatwave. Thames people already live in flood risk areas and ever recorded in England Barrier raised record about 12 per cent of farmland and a and Wales 11 times in 2001 quarter of industrial sites are at risk. Some Upton winter 2003, 11 per cent of new homes are built in flood groundwater flooding Brogdale 2003, highest risk areas in England.5 temperature ever in the UK Boscastle 2004, • An increase in air and water pollution summer flash River Rother 2003, low river flows River Stour 2003, triggered by longer, hotter summers. floods record low river levels Chertsey, Wraysbury 2003, winter flooding River Itchen, low river flows Looe, Penzance, Porthleven and South East 2000, Falmouth 2004, coastal flooding summer flash floods Figure 1 Recent weather events around England and Wales described in this report 03 Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue
  • 7. The cause Global climate change has been caused by an increase in greenhouse gases 6 in the atmosphere. These gases come from both natural and man-made sources, but the increase is the result of human activity7(Figure 2), mainly the release of carbon dioxide from the use of fossil fuels such as coal, gas, oil, petrol and diesel. 5 Overall, UK emissions of carbon dioxide fell Figure 2 The effect of human activity on global Figure 3 UK carbon dioxide emissions, 1990 to 2003 ODPM (2004a) 6 The main greenhouse gases temperatures between 1990 and 2002 (Figure 3). This was are carbon dioxide, methane, Index (1990 = 100) Contributions to 2002 emissions nitrous oxide, largely the result of reductions made by the Actual temperature Natural effects and perfluorocarbons (PFCs), man-made effects 120 Domestic 16% industries we regulate and a move away from hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Natural effects (solar and volcanic activity) and sulphur hexafluoride coal and oil to gas-fired power stations. But (SF6) 110 releases from both domestic sources and Temperature change ˚C 7 See for example Stott et al. Transport 24% (2004) transport rose over the same period, and the 1.0 8 100 Due to an increase in gas output from coal-fired power stations is now prices and maintenance costs rising again.8 at nuclear power stations in 90 Processes we the last two years 9 Department for Transport More and more of us are taking to the roads regulate 41% 0.5 White Paper (2004) and skies. Traffic levels are predicted to rise by 80 10 Measured in passenger- 40 per cent between 2000 and 20259 and kilometres, from 1995 base. Transport 2000 (see worldwide air travel is expected to double 70 www.transport2000. between 1995 and 2015.10 But there is a cost 0.0 org.uk/factsandfigures/ Facts.asp) for the climate. New technologies are reducing 1990 1994 1998 2002 the pollution from individual vehicles, but the benefit is offset by the increasing volume of 2002 is the latest year of data available for domestic and traffic. Transport is now the second most 1850 1900 1950 2000 transport emissions. Emissions from transport do not include important source of carbon dioxide emissions. shipping or aviation. Source: NETCEN, Environment Agency These include releases by aeroplanes in the Source: IPCC (2001) upper atmosphere, which have an important effect compared to emissions at ground level. Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue 04
  • 8. Creating a better place: limiting and adapting to climate change ‘The ultimate objective … is to achieve … The climate is already changing and the UK The UK is a world leader in the drive to reduce 11 See http://unfccc.int/ for more information on the stabilisation of greenhouse gas has to adapt to the inevitable effects. Global carbon dioxide, but is not currently on track to UNFCCC concentrations in the atmosphere at a level carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced meet national commitments by 2010. The 12 Energy Saving Trust (see that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic and stabilised in order to limit the extent of Prime Minister has said that ‘we have to do www.est.org.uk/myhome/ climatechange/forecasting/ interference with the climate system. Such a climate change to manageable levels. This more to achieve our commitment to reduce makeadifference/) level should be achieved within a time frame means moving to low carbon energy – carbon dioxide emissions by 20 per cent by 13 14 DTI (2004) EurObser’ER (2004) to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to increasing the use of renewable and other 2010.’15 We support more stringent effort, as 15 14 September 2004 speech. climate change, to ensure that food non-fossil fuel based energy, reducing demand we think it is vital that the UK meets both this www.number10.gov.uk/ output/page6333.asp production is not threatened and to enable and improving efficiency. In the long term, commitment and the target of a 60 per cent 16 Defra December 2004 review economic development to proceed in a these measures will also save money – the reduction in carbon dioxide by 2050. of the UK Climate Change Programme sustainable manner.’ average UK household could save £200 a year The Government has identified opportunities 17 Environment Agency (2004) by improving energy efficiency, for example.12 18 Environment Agency (2001c) United Nations Framework Convention on to further reduce carbon dioxide releases and Climate Change.11 The UK has the largest potential for wind, wave will publish a review of the Climate Change and tidal energy in Europe, but currently Programme this year after consultation.16 generates only three per cent of electricity from We also support its proposal of a UK-wide renewable resources,13 way behind Austria adaptation framework that sets out clear (59 per cent), Sweden (43 per cent), Portugal objectives, roles and responsibilities for (42 per cent) and Spain (26 per cent).14 If the government, government bodies and other UK is to meet the target of generating 20 per stakeholders to ensure that the UK is cent of electricity using renewable energy by sufficiently prepared for climate change. Only 2020, rapid adoption of these renewable by taking action now can we minimise the energy schemes is needed. impact of climate change on our quality of life. 05 Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue
  • 9. The results of decisions taken today to protect society from a changing climate may last many decades or even centuries. If they are to stand the test of time, they need to be resilient to the future climate. Building resilience into the early stages of big infrastructure projects for example will save money in the long run. Development in inappropriate locations can But designing and building in ways that are exacerbate the problems associated with flood more water efficient and resilient to flooding risk and limited water supply. To avoid need not be costly. We believe that designing creating problems in the future it is essential in efficiency measures can reduce an average that planners and developers work with us to household’s water use by 25 per cent at no ensure that development is located in the best extra cost. place and is resilient to climate change. We As an organisation, we consider climate need better application of national policy to change in everything we do. We are defining prevent inappropriate development on flood and planning for the impacts of climate plains or areas of flood risk – over half the change on water, land, biodiversity, waste planning proposals that we objected to last management, flooding, air quality, health, year lacked appropriate assessment of flood emergency planning and how we monitor and risk. Almost 12 per cent of the proposals we report on the state of the environment. Our objected to were approved contrary to our science programme is helping us develop risk- advice by local planning authorities (Figure based responses to these impacts across all 4).17 In some areas water supplies are already our functions. almost fully used by the existing population.18 Figure 4 Development applications granted against Environment Agency advice 2003/04 Planned development sites Planned development sites that lie in areas that have flooded in the past Major development Minor development Source: Environment Agency Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue 06
  • 10. Find out more about i renewable energy www.dti.gov.uk/renewables/ Use less energy www.est.org.uk/ Cut carbon emissions www.thecarbontrust.co.uk/ 19 ODPM (2004c) In 2004 we organised and took part in 20 ODPM (2004c) ‘Exercise Triton 04’ with more than 60 other The Thames Gateway organisations to test how well we would all respond to, and cope with, a national-scale Climate change presents a particular challenge to the Thames Gateway.19 Much of flooding event. Improvements since the 1998 the area is in the floodplain of the Thames Estuary and – as in the rest of south east and 2000 floods were recognised. Valuable England – the balance of water demand and supply is already fragile. Successful lessons were identified that will be followed planning for the extra 120,000 homes planned to be built by 2016 20 needs to ensure through with action plans for all the that the development minimises both extra demand for water and flood risk. We are organisations involved to further strengthen working with organisations such as the Thames Gateway London Partnership to the nation’s capability to deal with major flooding events. ensure that this is the case. We have set up the Thames Estuary 2100 project, which will produce a flood risk management strategy for the estuary for the next 100 years. This will balance the need for existing and new development with the challenge of Make buildings more i climate proof by flood- proofing (e.g. raising floor rising sea levels and storm surges caused by climate change. We are working with partners in the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany on some of the future challenges. With all partners working together, the Gateway can be sustainable. The area is too height) and incorporating water important to miss this opportunity. efficiency measures www.practicalhelp.org.uk/ housing/guidance/ 07 Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue
  • 11. How the Environment Agency fits in We consider climate change in everything we do and have a major role in both limiting the scale of climate change by addressing its causes, and limiting its impact by adapting to change. Addressing the causes: Limiting the impact by adapting: • We regulate and protect fisheries and 21 promote recreation and navigation. See www.environment- • Over 40 per cent of the carbon dioxide • We license water use, balancing the agency.gov.uk/business/ 444217/444663/298441/ released in the UK comes from various demands for drinking, for • We are one of the organisations involved for details about pollution industries that we regulate. We consider industry and for the environment. in protecting and managing the marine prevention and control (PPC) their energy use and limit releases of environment. permitting • We are the largest flood risk 22 See www.environment- pollutants.21 agency.gov.uk/business/ management authority in England and • We are building climate change into our 444217/590750/590838/55 • We are running the EU Emissions Trading Wales, responsible for 36,000 km of catchment-scale plans for the Water 6574/ for details about the Scheme (ETS) in England and Wales.22 flood defences along rivers and coast. Framework Directive, which will allow us EU ETS to tackle its impacts on water, land and • We promote adoption of low carbon • We provide a 24-hour flood forecasting biodiversity in an all-embracing way. technologies and support the Carbon and warning service, raise public Trust and Energy Saving Trust. We only awareness and promote uptake of • We operate monitoring and surveillance use renewable energy in our 2,000 sites Kitemarked flood-proofing measures. programmes to improve our and facilities. understanding of climate change. • We advise planners and developers on • We will be working with a government- the flood risk of new developments. • We work with many other organisations, led multi-agency cross-sector such as central government, local • We protect wetland habitats and communication partnership to help councils, planning authorities and the species. people, industry and businesses emergency services. We are involved in understand how serious the situation is • We aim to prevent or reduce the risk of all of the regional climate change and what action can be taken. pollution wherever possible, and to partnerships, supporting their work to ensure that it gets cleaned up if develop and promote the need for pollution occurs. adaptation responses. Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue 08
  • 12. Putting a price on climate change It will be expensive to build resilience to climate change. Reducing the risk of tidal and river flooding already costs us £0.4 billion a year. We estimate that over the next 80 years the • 1998 – Easter floods led to the evacuation The Association of British Insurers (ABI) 23 Foresight Flooding 2004 (see www.environment- cost of engineered flood defences to meet the of 1,500 people from their homes, and a estimates that the increased cost to agency.gov.uk/subjects/ demands of climate change in England and cost to the insurance industry of around households due to extreme weather events flood/763964/) Wales will be £22 to £75 billion. £500 million. will be up to 4 per cent extra each year.26 24 Association of British Insurers (ABI) (2004a) The things we own are increasing in value, so 25 Data provided by ABI, 2005 It is worth doing. Flood damage already costs • 2000 – Heavy autumn rainfall led to 10,000 we have more to lose. 26 ABI (2004b) about £1 billion a year and our flood risk flooded properties, and nearly £1 billion in management prevents further yearly damages insurance claims. of £3.4 billion. But we can’t defend • 2003 – Soaring temperatures combined Insurance may get more i everywhere. Damage costs from flooding are with low rainfall doubled the previous year’s predicted to be as much as £25 billion under a insurance claims for subsidence to expensive for everyone. worst-case scenario in the 2080s.23 The ABI agree it is time £390 million. Since 1998 the cost of repairing the damage • 2004 – Torrential rain and flash flooding to bring planning for climate from extreme weather events and floods has across Britain cost over £300 million in the change into the mainstream of increased by 60 per cent.24 first nine months alone.25 business life. www.abi.org.uk/climatechange/ 09 Environment Agency The climate is changing The issue
  • 13. Living in the twenty-first century ‘It’s the extreme weather and climate events that will have some of the most severe impacts on human society as the climate changes.’ Jerry Meehl, US National Center for Atmospheric Research In the following sections, we look at the conditions many people have already experienced this century. While these individual events cannot be attributed to climate change now, they are conditions that we expect to become more common as the climate changes. Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century 10
  • 14. Too much rain This century has started with the third wettest year since records began in 1766.28 In autumn 2000 some places flooded for the first time in decades. Torrential rain in August 2004 caused some of the worst flood events ever recorded in Britain. Summer flooding Check out our Flood i At the end of July 2002 rail services between 27 UKCIP (2002a) 28 Met Office data Harrogate and Leeds were affected by severe Warning service online On the whole, we expect that summers will be 29 Hydrographic information – flooding. In August 2002, in Yorkshire, the 2002 (see www.nwl.ac.uk/ drier.27 But when it does rain, it will probably and do something to ih/nrfa/monthly_summaries/ River Wharfe exceeded its previous August rain harder. Parched soils are unable to absorb 2002/08/summary.html) flow maximum in a 47-year record and Filey protect yourself if your home is 30 North Cornwall District heavy rain fast enough, resulting in localised, experienced ‘the worst flooding in living at risk. Council (2004) but severe, flooding. 31 Catovsky/ ABI (2004) memory’. In the same month, there were 32 Defra, Thames Water, In 2000 the May bank holiday was washed out localised floods in the London area,29 with www.environment- Environment Agency, Greater London Authority and Ofwat as rivers burst their banks in south east some places receiving 60 mm of rain in just agency.gov.uk/subjects/flood/ England, causing local flooding. Unusually one hour. The rail network was badly severe summer rain in June 2000 caused disrupted. 1,000 homes to be flooded across Yorkshire Heavy rain and flash flooding hit the headlines and County Durham. In August of the same again in summer 2004. At the beginning of year, a tornado rained a cloudburst of fish on August, flash floods devastated Boscastle in the beach in Great Yarmouth, Norfolk. north Cornwall. Lancashire was also badly affected. In Harrow, an hour of heavy rain submerged roads under 18 cm of floodwater. 11 Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century
  • 15. Flood devastates village – Boscastle The London storm sewage problem On the high ground around Boscastle, 196 mm of rain fell in just four London’s Victorian sewerage system is easily overloaded during storms. hours on 16 August 2004. The local topography channelled the rainfall Properties can be flooded and large amounts of raw sewage released into the River Valency, which broke its banks, and three metre high into the tidal section of the River Thames. The ecological consequences floodwater rushed through the village devastating everything in its can be severe. In August 2004 heavy rainfall led to appalling path. Nearby Crackington Haven, Canworthy Water, Helebridge and Bude pollution events that killed tens of thousands of fish, left sewage were also hit. One hundred properties in the area were flooded, debris and a foul smell along the foreshore, and significantly increased hundreds of people were evacuated from their homes, and over a E. coli levels in the river. hundred people were plucked from roofs, trees and vehicles in the • Every year 12 million tonnes of untreated sewage enter the largest peacetime rescue in the history of mainland Britain. Trees were river because of storm overflows. uprooted and four bridges were washed away. Four buildings collapsed or had to be demolished and at least 70 cars were washed into the sea. • A single storm can create 3 million tonnes of sewage overflow. Over 50 of our staff helped to handle the crisis. • About 10,000 tonnes of sewage solids are discharged to the river each year. The solids include paper, faecal matter, sanitary items, The repair bill for this single event will be in the millions. Infrastructure condoms and hypodermic needles. damage alone could cost £2 million.30 Insured damage to buildings and • These discharges occur 50–60 times per year. cars is estimated at £4–6 million, with a further £5–10 million in business interruption.31 Estimates of uninsured losses to businesses and These problems are the result of a lack of capacity within London’s individuals have not yet been recorded. sewer network, and a solution to the problem is being developed by the Thames Tideway Strategic Partnership.32 It will need Flood defences can be breached during extreme rainfall events. substantial investment. Permanent flood defences are not always suitable for reducing the risk from flash flooding. Instead, we need to make the best use of emergency plans, flood warning schemes and advice campaigns, controls over development and temporary defences to reduce the risk from flooding. Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century 12
  • 16. Winters have become significantly wetter since records began in 1766 – an average increase equivalent to a month of extra rainfall. Figure 5 Flood levels in the River Wye at Erwood, Wales Winter flooding information and helpline service. Almost a Peaks over the threshold Four year moving average third of our staff were involved in dealing with Winters are becoming wetter and more rain is Overall trend the floods.36 falling in heavy downpours.33 Six of the seven Number of peaks per year over the threshold* rivers we use to indicate flooding show an At New Year 2003, 30 houses were flooded by increase in frequency of peak river levels (see high groundwater levels in the area around 9 Figure 5 for example). Upton in Hampshire. The Thames had its 8 highest flood since 1947 and many properties The autumn and winter floods of 2000 were 7 were flooded in Chertsey, Wraysbury and the worst in some areas for 270 years and surrounding places. 6 devastated the lives of thousands of people. In total, 700 places were hit and 10,000 In February 2004, Trefriw and Llanrwst (Conwy) 5 properties were flooded, some five times.34 were cut off, buildings were flooded in 60 cm 4 Significant areas of farmland were flooded of water and five schools were closed as 3 causing an estimated loss of up to £500 floodwaters poured off Snowdonia. Main million to the farming industry.35 Parts of the roads were cut off by associated landslides.37 2 M1, M3, M20, M23 and M25 were shut, and These villages were flooded again when the 1 railway services throughout Wales, southern, River Conwy burst its banks in the New Year 0 north east and south west England were flooding of 2005.38 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 disrupted. Sewerage systems in many areas Heavy rainfall in early January 2005 caused were overwhelmed, causing up to 30 per cent extensive, and in places repeated, flooding *The level exceeded on average between 1980 and 2000 of all property floods. Over half a million across the north of England. High spring tides Source: Environment Agency people called our Floodline, our 24-hour 13 Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century
  • 17. Saving the Severn Boats replace traffic In response to the devastating in New Year flooding, autumn 2000 floods, we are working January 2005 with the Department for Environment, In the second weekend of 2005, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), local Carlisle was hit by its worst flooding authorities and Severn Trent Water to since 1822. Almost 2,000 properties reduce flood risk along the length of were flooded in Carlisle when the the River Severn. We are looking at River Eden and its tributaries increased the risk of flooding for many. The the causes of flooding, reviewing the 33 UKCIP (2002b) overtopped 8 km of flood defences, in 34 Environment Agency (2001a) worst affected area was Cumbria. Across the performance of existing flood 35 NFU press release, 5 January Pennines, over a hundred properties were some places by more than a metre. defences and assessing the 2001 flooded around the River Tyne and in the Thousands of people were evacuated 36 Environment Agency (2001b) effectiveness and viability of flood 37 BBC News 3 February 2004 Yorkshire Dales. River levels on the upper Tyne from their homes and police and fire 38 BBC News 10 January 2005 management options for the next 50 catchment at Stanhope and Haydon Bridge stations were flooded. (see http://news.bbc.co.uk/ were the highest ever recorded. Nearby, years. We are also addressing wider 1/hi/wales/4159471.stm) Communications were severely 39 Environment Agency (2001b) 11,000 properties in Hexham were without issues such as changes in land use, 40 Planning Policy Guidance 25 disrupted as the town was virtually (PPG25), section A7 (ODPM mains water for days as, in the midst of all the farming practice, new development cut off by floodwater. About 70,000 2004b) flooding, a water main was damaged. and urban drainage. properties experienced power cuts, We delivered 1,437 flood warnings and The benefits of this work have telephone lines were down and only protected 280,000 homes from flooding in already been seen. New defences in one mobile phone operator was 2000 alone.39 Many more may need protecting functioning. As well as the serious Worcester, Ironbridge, Bewdley and in the future. We expect flood flows to be 20 Shrewsbury saved about £20 million flooding in Carlisle, flooding occurred per cent higher by 2050.40 Just 15 cm of fast of damage and disruption to in the towns of Cockermouth, flowing water will knock adults off their feet, 60 cm of water will float a car, and 90 cm of home and business owners during Keswick, Appleby and Kendal. floodwater in an average house can cause up flooding in 2004. Numerous isolated properties and to £30,000 of damage. villages also suffered flooding. Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century 14
  • 18. Winter storms and sea level rise As much as 65 per cent of all flood risk is from coastal and tidal flooding. Across England and Wales, over a million properties are already at risk. As storms and sea levels increase, more properties, businesses and people will be affected (Figure 6). Sea levels around the UK are now about threatening lives. Not all flooding will be Figure 6 Low-lying land in England and Wales 10 cm higher than they were in 1900.41 At the temporary; some places, such as Selsey in Height above current same time, the south east of England is Sussex, could become islands again if our sea level (metres) sinking at a rate of 15 to 20 cm a century.42 flood defences don’t keep pace with climate <1 And the average number of winter storms has change. Other areas, such as Essex, have 1-2 increased significantly, with the largest already lost vast areas of land under the sea. 2-3 increases in the south.43 New records for wind 3-4 We use the latest available technology to The Humber speeds in England and Wales were set by 4-5 monitor sea conditions 24 hours a day to 124 mph (200 km/hour) gusts at Rhoose >5 forecast coastal flooding and trigger the (South Glamorgan) in October 1989.44 For closure of tidal barriers. Clear warning some east coast locations, extreme sea levels systems will continue to be an essential (storm surges) could occur between 10 and element of flood risk management to enable 20 times more frequently by the 2080s than people to take action to protect themselves they do now.45 and their properties. In some cases prompt Coastal flooding such as that seen in Cornwall evacuation will also be necessary. at Looe, Penzance, Porthleven, Flushing and Falmouth on 27 October 2004 will become London increasingly common, damaging property and Selsey 15 Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century
  • 19. The world’s largest movable flood barrier – the Thames Barrier – has been raised 55 times against tidal surges in the 20 years since it was built, half of which were in the last five years. 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Figure 7 Thames Barrier closures against tidal surges, 1983 to 2004 Source: Environment Agency = one raising of the Barrier Check if you are at risk of i London and the Thames Estuary Hull and the Humber Estuary 41 Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory (see www. Canvey flooding by using our flood pol.ac.uk/ntslf/data.html). See also our sea level change Dagenham Island Hull risk maps. environmental indicator Westminster (www. environment- www.environment-agency.gov.uk/ agency.gov. uk/yourenv/eff/natural_ Richmond Grimsby flood/ forces/sealevels/) 42 During the last glaciation, the mass of ice pushed the north Doncaster west of the UK down which in turn raised the south east. Foresight – a project to i Even though the ice sheets are long gone, the land is still produce a long-term vision rebounding – the north west is rising and the south east Selsey for the future of flood and sinking. This is called isostatic rebound Chichester coastal defence in the UK. 43 Met Office/Hadley Centre (2003) www.foresight.gov.uk/fcd.html 44 Met Office: Extreme weather (see www.met- office.gov.uk/climate/uk/loca Bognor Regis tion/england/index.html and www.met-office.gov.uk/ climate/uk/location/wales/in Selsey dex.html) 45 UKCIP (2002a and 2002b) © Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2005. Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century 16
  • 20. A safe climate for Turning the tide for Hull industry? One of the highest tidal surges for four decades hit Hull in Large tracts of the north west’s January 2005. Water levels rose to about 90 cm above industry – including petrochemicals normal levels – about the same height that flooded the city and a nuclear power plant – are centre in 1969. But the city was saved from certain flooding vulnerable to tidal surges and river by our tidal barrier, which protected about 1,800 properties flooding because they are only just and saved £250 million worth of damages. above the existing high tide sea level Sea level rises, storm surges and intense erosion are a or located on flat, low-lying land. threat to the whole Humber Estuary. Over 300,000 people Set up your flood plan – i In 2001, high tides and storms live on the Humber’s floodplain, protected by flood flooded Bromborough sewage defences. After the Thames, the Humber has the greatest more businesses flood treatment works on Merseyside, concentration of people and property on a tidal floodplain in than burn down, yet most shorting out all power and damaging the UK. businesses have no flood plans in the infrastructure. It was several place. We are now putting into effect the Humber Estuary Shoreline weeks before the plant was fully Management Plan to combat the effects of climate change. www.environment-agency.gov.uk/ operational again. Fortunately, In Hull, existing defences will be heightened. At Alkborough although the potential for subjects/flood/ some embankments will be set back, allowing the sea to environmental damage was high the reclaim about 1,000 hectares of farmland; defending the actual impact was not significant. In shore by neutralising the energy of waves and creating an 2000, floodwaters from the River intertidal habitat. As part of the project the Environment Gowy reached a new part of the Gowy Agency, English Nature, the Countryside Agency and North landfill site (near Chester) and mixed Lincolnshire Council are creating 440 hectares of habitat with contaminated leachate. This cost where the Rivers Ouse and Trent meet to replace ‘coastal the company about £50,000 to tanker squeeze’ losses in the inner part of the estuary and tidal away and dispose of safely. A major washlands. There will be opportunities for countryside programme of works has now been leisure activities that will connect with the Waters’ Edge area completed to reduce the risk of this at Barton upon Humber. happening again. 17 Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century
  • 21. Longer, drier, hotter summers By 2080 the high temperatures experienced in 2003 may seem cool. High summer temperatures could cause ill health and even death, and poorer air and water quality. We think summers will also be drier, and what rain does fall is likely to be in intense bursts. Droughts will be more frequent. Water supply Periods of drought spanning more than one season or one year present a serious threat to October is the start of the annual ‘water year’, water supplies. South east England is under usually marked by the onset of heavier rain. greater pressure than most places; 8 million As the dry weather of 2003 continued late people already live there and more into October, our concerns about water supply development is planned. It is one of the driest increased in a number of areas. Soil moisture regions in the UK, with less available water per levels were extremely low until early person than Spain (265,000 compared to November. This delayed the replenishment of 2,711,000 litres per person).47 Several groundwater stores, which provide 80 per reservoir proposals are being explored in the cent of water supplies in some places, and south and south east of England. Southern levels across England and Wales fell by as Water, South East Water, Portsmouth Water much as 35 per cent. Record lows for river and Mid Kent Water may have to build four flows were recorded across the country from new reservoirs by 2020 to maintain reliable the Stour in Dorset to the Yscir in South Wales water supplies, including the first ever Figure 8 In October 2004 water levels were still low in some places even and the Soar in the Midlands. The River after a wet year reservoir in Hampshire. We will be assessing Rother in the south east was flowing at just these plans and ensuring that existing water River levels Groundwater levels eight per cent of average. By October 2004, supplies are used efficiently. Above average (>150%) Above average and despite a wetter than average summer,46 Average or above (100-150%) Below average water levels were still low in some areas Below average (50-99%) Aquifers (Figure 8). 46 Rivers Met Office: 2004 weather (see www.met-office.gov.uk/climate/uk/2004/seasonal.html) 47 World Resources Institute 2004 (see www.wri.org/) Source: Environment Agency and UK Groundwater Forum, BGS and NERC Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century 18
  • 22. Use less water i Figure 9 Impact of river flow levels on chemical river Higher temperatures 48 Met Office News Release quality, Anglian Region 2004: Another warm year www.environment- Six of the ten warmest years on the UK record (see www.met-office.gov.uk/ Average river quality Mean annual flow corporate/pressoffice/2004/ agency.gov.uk/ were between 1995 and 2004. Globally, 2003 pr20041216.html) was the second warmest year and 2004 the 49 Met Office News Release subjects/waterres/ fourth since records began in 1861.48 In 2003: Great weather events – Percentage of long-term average flow B good 250 Temperature records fall (see Europe, the August heat wave was the hottest www.metoffice.com/ corporate/pressoffice/anniver 200 for 500 years. In the UK, March to August Water quality sary/records2003.html) River quality grade 2003 were the warmest on record49 and 50 Met Office website August We are concerned that lower river flows and 150 included the country’s hottest temperature 2003 – Hot spell (see www.metoffice.com/climate/ groundwater levels will mean poorer water C ever of 38.5°C at Brogdale in Kent.50 Even uk/interesting/aug03maxtem quality. We have seen higher nitrate levels in 100 2004, which many people perceived as a ps.html) 51 National Statistics (2003) groundwater in drought years and poorer river disappointing summer, was the UK’s fifth quality when flows are low in our Anglian 50 warmest yet. Region (Figure 9). This has impacts on wildlife D fair Temperatures in 2003 were warmer than the and habitats, the cost of cleaning water for 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 long-term average by just over 1°C. This is drinking, and the amenity value of our well below predictions for 2080, but in the countryside. short time between 4 and 13 August 2003 Source: Environment Agency more than two thousand people died in the UK because of the heat.51 By 2080, the UK is three times more likely to experience these conditions and the hottest days could be in the mid 40s. 19 Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century
  • 23. Feeling the heat in the city Central London can be up to 7°C Air pollution Figure 10 Air pollution in the UK 52 Wilby (2003) warmer than the surrounding 53 National Statistics (2003) countryside, especially at night, The heat wave in summer 2003 caused the Rural sites Urban sites 54 London Climate Change Partnership (2002) because of the heat island effect.52 poorest air quality for years (Figure 10). High Average number of days when air pollution is moderate 55 Kent (2003) levels of pollution were measured on 10 or higher 56 Targa (2004) 57 Lee (1993) In August 2003, temperatures on the consecutive days in August, and ozone 70 58 Donaldson et al. (2001) Underground were so severe that the pollution reached its highest peak for more 59 Stedman (2004) London Mayor offered a reward of than a decade in London.55 High levels of 60 £10,000 to anyone who could devise pollution were again recorded in late 50 July/early August 2004 as temperatures rose an effective cooling solution. Parts of to about 30°C.56 40 the M25 melted. The London Eye had to be closed because the pods were Hot, dry summers favour the production of air 30 too hot. And more than a thousand pollutants like ground-level ozone, volatile 20 organic compounds and fine particles. An people in London died in the heat.53 increase of just 1°C in summer has been 10 By 2080 temperatures in London are linked with a 14 per cent increase in ground- 0 predicted to be ‘outside comfort level ozone.57 Poor air quality can lead to 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 significant respiratory problems for sensitive levels’ for people at work for 23 per people58 and was responsible for up to 38 per cent of working hours.54 Source: NETCEN on behalf of Defra cent of the deaths caused by the August 2003 heat wave.59 Environment Agency The climate is changing Living in the twenty-first century 20