A presentation outlining the unexpected barriers to solar power despite its low cost in Hawaii; based on the report of the same name by ILSR Senior Researcher John Farrell.

1. Hawaiian Sunblock
Solar Facing Unexpected Barriers Despite Low Cost
ILSR Senior Researcher John Farrell
Download the full report: http://bit.ly/HawaiiSunblock

2. 100 mil. Hawaii’s Just the Start 94.7 mil. 70 GW
81.1 mil.
61
75 mil. GW
U.S. population at grid parity 51
Residential solar potential at parity (GW) 59.8 mil.
51.4 mil.
50 mil. 45.1 mil. 35 GW
35
29
25
25 mil. 22 mil. 22 mil.
12 12
3.1 mil. 3.1 mil.
0 mil. 0 mil.
0 mil. 0 GW
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
San Diego, New York, So. Cal, Southwest, East Coast, Midwest

3. Hawaii’s Solar Crossover in 2010...
$0.50
$0.40
$0.30
$ per kWh
$0.20
$0.10
$0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Avg. Residential Electricity Price Levelized Cost of Solar Power

4. ...Driven by Oil Prices
40¢ $110
Electricity Fuel Source
30¢ $83
Oil
83%
20¢ $55
10¢ $28
0¢ $0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Avg. Residential Price (¢/kWh) Oil Price ($ per barrel)

5. Strong Solar Growth
150 145 MW
120
90 85 MW
60
45 MW
30 26 MW
14 MW
5 MW
0
2012
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 proj.
Hawaii Installed Solar Capacity

6. Fast Payback
Hawaii Residential Solar
10
8
8.9 years
6
6.2 years
4
3.1 years
2
0
No incentives Fed. tax credit only Fed. & state credits

7. Fast Payback
Hawaii Commercial Solar
10
8
7.6 years
6
4
3 years
2
0 0.8 years
No incentives Fed. tax credit only Fed. & state credits

8. “It’s not like the gates of heaven open up when solar becomes cheaper”
Isaac Moriwake, Earthjustice

9. UNEXPECTED BARRIER
$3,500 Electric Upgrade
1 in 4

10. UNEXPECTED BARRIER
unsuitable roofs*
3 in 4
*due to shading, orientation,
renting, etc

11. UNEXPECTED BARRIER
$40,000 Interconnection Study
9 of 10

12. UNEXPECTED BARRIER
Permit Overload
40-50% of building permits in Honolulu

13. UNEXPECTED BARRIER
“15% Rule”

14. A Start to Solutions
80 MW CLEAN Program
Lifting the 15% Rule Cap
Reducing State Incentives

15. A Start to Solutions
Contract price 80 MW CLEAN
System size or location
(per kWh) (Feed-In Tariff)
Program
< 20 kW $0.218
20 to 500 kW $0.189 20-year,
fixed price contracts
500 kW to 5 MW $0.197

16. A Start to Solutions

17. A Start to Solutions
40%
35%
35% 30%
30%
25%
25% 20% Proposed State Tax
20% Credit Changes
20% 20%
10%
0%
2012 2013 2014 2015
Homestead Other small solar

18. 100 mil. Hawaii’s Just the Start 94.7 mil. 70 GW
81.1 mil.
61
75 mil. GW
U.S. population at grid parity 51
Residential solar potential at parity (GW) 59.8 mil.
51.4 mil.
50 mil. 45.1 mil. 35 GW
35
29
25
25 mil. 22 mil. 22 mil.
12 12
3.1 mil. 3.1 mil.
0 mil. 0 mil.
0 mil. 0 GW
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
San Diego, New York, So. Cal, Southwest, East Coast, Midwest

19. Download the full report
http://bit.ly/HawaiiSunblock