The World in 2029: Key Trends Shaping the Global Tourism Industry
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The document discusses predictions for the world in 2029 based on current trends. It notes that many past developments started during economic downturns. It predicts that the world's population will grow by over 2 billion people in the next 40 years, with demographic changes driving economics. Other predictions include increasing lifespans, shifting economic power, challenges for sustainability, and technology transforming experiences through devices that integrate telephony, connectivity, data, and multimedia.
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The World in 2029: Key Trends Shaping the Global Tourism Industry
- 1. The World in 2029 World Tourism Forum Lucerne Rohit Talwar CEO Fast Future April 23rd 2009 rohit@fastfuture.com Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766 Mob +44 (0)7973 405145
- 2. What do they Have in Common? They all started in an economic downturn
- 4. Demographic Destinies Over 2 billion more people in 40 years – Demographics is Driving Economics 445 731 665 5266 339 1998 4034 769 965 572 2008 2050 Source: UN Source : United Nations
- 6. Life Redefined – Lifespans are Increasing
- 7. Food – Up or Salty?
- 9. Economic Power Shifts The Top 20 in 2025? Source: www.gs.com
- 10. How will the Downturn Develop?
- 11. US Bank Exposure to Default Risk Derivates as % of Risk Capital Q408
- 12. Prepare for Alternative Scenarios 8-10% Suspicious Love is in Minds the Air GDP Growth Dancing in India 6-7% the Dark and China Road to Nowhere 1-2% Recession 0% 1-2% 2-3% GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan
- 13. Sustainability – Hope Fulfilled? http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/06/16/PH2008061601786.jpg
- 14. Don’t Break What you Can’t Fix “For too long, environmentally-friendly technology and issues about the environment have been seen as a corporate social responsibility issue and not an opportunity to create new wealth in the future. Governments alone cannot solve the problems we face unless the capitalist world invests in a sustainable future.” Sir Richard Branson. Virgin Atlantic http://www.easier.com/view/News/Motoring/Saab/article-110953.html http://www.bizbuzzmedia.com/Admin/ImageGallery/BizBuzzMedia/Rob%20Coppinger/Virgin-low-res.jpg http://www.bizbuzzmedia.com/Admin/ImageGallery/BizBuzzMedia/jackiet/Silverjet%20plane%20taking%20off.jpg
- 15. Don’t Make What you Don’t Need From requirement analysis through contract negotiation to implementation and demobilization in months Source: Siemens Industrial Solutions & Services - Airport Logistics
- 16. Masdar – Tomorrow’s Energy Blueprint? Masdar in Abu Dhabi completes in 2015 as one of the first planned eco-cities – the solutions developed could be rolled out globally. Could you be part of that? Image sources: http://www.outnext.com/on/2007/05/masdar_city_gre.html
- 20. Technology – The World in your Hand? Telephony Connectivity • Voice • Cellular • Messaging • Up to 14 bands • SIM card • WLAN/BT • Phonebook • GPS • Ring Tones • NFC • Security • FM Data/ Multimedia Enterprise • Camera 8-16M • 100Mbps • Camcorder • Email • 24M Color Display • IMS • Memory (160GB) • Browsing • Multiformat A/V • HD Video/TV out • VPN • Games • PIM • Ecommerce Software (50-100M Tps) • Protocols • DRM • Payments • Middleware • Applications • User Interface • Minimize fragmentation
- 21. The Only Way to Fly?
- 22. Society – me, we or all of us? http://bloginitiative.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/crowd.jpg
- 23. The Middle East – Against the Wind? US$ 4.1 Trillion investment by 2025 Over 1170 new hotels offering 820,000+ rooms by 2025 Capacity for 320 million extra passengers by 2012 1130 new aircraft by 2030 170 million Tourists by 2020
- 25. Airports - Endangered Species? http://www.visitingdc.com/images/jfk-airport-address.jpg
- 28. What does the timeline of developments look like for your key markets?
- 29. Conclusions - Designing the Future • Restricting entry will become the issue • Eco-political risks rising • Technology will transform experiences • New business models must evolve • Sustainability in question
Notas del editor
- rohit@fastfuture.com Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766 Mob +44 (0)7973 405145 Image Source: http://lt3063.k12.sd.us/Year/Mauritius.jpg
- 81% - likely / very likely that relaxation will be the primary purpose of a vacation 76% - likely / very likely that cultural pursuits will be the primary purpose 62% - likely / very likely that environmental considerations will influence their choice of destination 80% - likely / very likely that they will look for unspoilt / undiscovered destinations http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/time-zone/usa/images/vacation-travel.jpg http://stephen.banksie.co.uk/research/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/louvre33.jpg Http://www.umanitoba.ca/campus/physical_plant/media/sustainability.jpg http://www.travelblog.org/Photos/1848797.html
- The first pattern of change I’d like to talk about is the fundamental shift happening in the global population. Based on current projections, by 2050 the growth in Asia will be bigger than the entire population of North America and Europe combined. Hispanics could be one fourth of the US population within ten years So this raises the question how well represented are we among minorities / should we be targeting them In the last 30 years, China has taken more than 400 million people out of poverty and across the developing world this pattern is being repeated – a trend that is helping to drive shifts in the distribution of economic power and wealth across the globe...
- www.brusselsjournal.com Millions Will Migrate to Europe From the desk of The Brussels Journal on Fri, 2007-03-16 15:49 A quote from The Daily Telegraph , 16 March 2007 At least 2.2 million migrants will arrive in the rich world every year from now until 2050, the United Nations said yesterday. Britain's population will rise from 60 million to approaching 69 million by 2050 – almost entirely because of immigration. The latest figures from the UN's population division predict a global upheaval without parallel in human history over the next four decades. […] [T]ens of millions will migrate to Europe and America, while the indigenous populations of most countries in the rich world will either stagnate or decline. As a result, the Islamic population will rapidly increase its share in the world population . The world population will increase by 1.7 Billion between 2004 and 2030. On this amount, Muslims will bring 780 million ( 46% ). Today, Muslims represent 24% of world population ( One man out of four). This figure will attain 29% in 2030 ( One man out of three ). This phenomenon would mean serious consequences for many countries: For example, thanks to the enlargement to Turkey and migrations, the population of the European Union ( 605 in 2030) will include 150 million muslim ( Turkey: 90 million, Balkans: 7 million and Western europe: 53 million. This last estimate of 53 million is in accordance with the CIA high projection of muslims in the European Union : 40 million in 2025)
- http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/aubrey_de_grey_says_we_can_avoid_aging.html
- http://static.causecast.org/ef4d5ad2460a5e73054ec1f42c11c444d39b4d57/image.jpg
- http://skyparliament.com/wp-content/2009/01/hu_jintao_01.jpg http://www.cbc.ca/news/reportsfromabroad/murray/gfx/putin-medvedev-392.jpg http://www.g-8.de/Content/DE/FotoDownload/G8/1Gipfeltag/BilateraleGespraeche/10-bundeskanzlerin-merkel-spricht-mit-nicolas-sarkozy,property=poster.jpg http://www.japanfocus.org/images/UserFiles/Image/2729.rogers.afghan.vietportent/taliban.jpg
- http://www.borev.net/imf.jpg
- We need a plan B, C and D because none of us can be sure how the future will play out – but these are all viable options from where we stand today
- http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/06/16/PH2008061601786.jpg
- http://www.easier.com/view/News/Motoring/Saab/article-110953.html http://www.bizbuzzmedia.com/Admin/ImageGallery/BizBuzzMedia/Rob%20Coppinger/Virgin-low-res.jpg http://www.bizbuzzmedia.com/Admin/ImageGallery/BizBuzzMedia/jackiet/Silverjet%20plane%20taking%20off.jpg
- Masdar in Abu Dhabi completes in 2015 as one of the first planned eco-cities – the solutions developed could be rolled out globally. Could you be part of that? Image sources: http://www.outnext.com/on/2007/05/masdar_city_gre.html
- http://www.patelsmith.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/village-classroom-1.jpg
- http://www.eurescom.de/message/messageNov2006/images/Telemedicine.jpg
- http://www.metrodcliving.com/urbantrekker/WindowsLiveWriter/j0400472.jpg http://www.35wbridgecollapse.net/images/35W%20020.jpg
- Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
- Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
- http://www.theapplecollection.com/design/pcproto/images/segavr.jpg
- www.mondolithic.com
- http://bloginitiative.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/crowd.jpg
- http://www.papermag.com/blogs/air-india-new-livery4.jpg
- http://www.visitingdc.com/images/jfk-airport-address.jpg
- http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2005/1907769952_82c4b8d1fb_o.jpg
- http://www.climatechangefraud.com/content/blogcategory/15/224/7/14/
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- http://www.gizmag.com/from-oilrig-to-luxury-eco-resort-11156/11156/picture/70690/
- http://www.gizmag.com/worlds-first-flying-hotel-the-hotelicopter/11348/picture/73477/
- Source: Aeroscraft
- www.mondolithic.com
- http://www.bornrich.org/images/space-hotel_18.jpg