Regression analysis: Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear Regression
Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau 01 June 2009
1. Surviving the Downturn and
Securing the Future
Slovenian Convention
Bureau
June 1st 2009
Rohit Talwar
CEO
Fast Future
rohit@fastfuture.com
Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766
http://www.sycp.si
2. • If you have any feedback or questions about the material
presented here or the background research, or would
like to discuss a potential research project, consultancy
assignment or speaking engagement for your
organization please contact rohit@fastfuture.com
• If you would like to take part in our survey on the future
of travel and meetings, please go to
http://tinyurl.com/future-travel-and-events
• We will donate $1 to children’s charities for each
respondent – the survey closing date is June 30th 2009
• If you would like details on our forthcoming seminar on
Winning in a Downturn in London on June 22nd , 6pm –
please email events@fastfuture.com
3. Lead or Follow?
• Permission to
Believe
• Opportunity
• Passion
• Magnetic
http://www.designedlearning.com/images/AsGoesTheFollower.JPG
• Relationships
6. WEF Competitiveness Rankings
Country Global Competitiveness GCI 2008-2009 score
Index Ranking 2008-09
United States 1 5.74
Switzerland 2 5.61
Denmark 3 5.58
Sweden 4 5.53
Singapore 5 5.53
Slovenia 45 4.50
http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/gcp/Global%20Competitiveness%20Report/index.htm
7. Doing Business – Europe’s Top 10
Country Ranking on the Starting a Protecting Enforcing
ease of doing business investors contracts
business (rank) (rank) (rank)
Denmark 5 16 24 29
U.K 6 8 9 24
Ireland 7 5 5 39
Norway 10 33 18 7
Finland 14 18 53 5
Sweden 17 30 53 55
Belgium 19 20 15 22
Switzerland 21 52 164 32
Estonia 22 23 53 30
Germany 25 102 88 9
Slovenia 54 41 18 79
Greece* 96 133 150 85
* Worst in E.U Selected Indicators only. For a full list visit http://www.doingbusiness.org/Documents/FullReport/2009/DB_2009_English.pdf
8. Innovation in the Sector
Terme Snovik
Grand Hotel Primus Maya Adrenaline Park
9. How big is the Crisis?
http://nychousingbubble.blogspot.com/2007/10/overstocked-and-overpriced-charge-it.html
10. Prepare for Alternative Scenarios
8-10% Suspicious Love is in
Minds the Air
GDP
Growth
Dancing in
India 6-7%
the Dark
and
China
Road to
3-4% Nowhere
Recession 0% 1-2% 2-3%
GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan
11. Fast Future Study on the Future
of Travel, Meetings and Events
• Electronic survey – running until June 30th 2009
• Interim results presented here
• 614 responses to date
• Questions on how the industry is responding to the downturn
and on scenarios for the industry in 2015
• Targeted both the industry and their customers
• $1 donate to Children’s charities for each person who responds
• To complete the survey please visit
http://tinyurl.com/future-travel-and-events
• For further details contact rohit@fastfuture.com
12. Revenue Impact Against 2008
16% Growth
28% Flat
2009
Decline
19%
43%
56%
2010
12%
38%
9%
2015
79%
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
13. Profit Impact Against 2008
20% 25% Growth
Flat
2009
Decline
25%
38%
55%
2010
18%
37%
9%
2015
73%
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
14. Cost Cutting -
Emphasis on Innovation -
Increasing Use of Partnerships -
Changing Organisational Structure -
Renegotiating Contracts with Suppliers -
Headcount Reduction -
Changing Business Model -
Changing our Basic Strategy -
Increased Marketing -
More New Product Development -
Focus on Premium Products -
Staff Motivation Activities -
Looking for Acquisitions -
Reduction of Product Range -
Price Increases -
Selling Parts of the Business -
No Change -
Other -
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
15. Customer Relationships -
Cost Control -
Innovation -
Marketing and Brand Promotion -
Clear Internal Communications -
Supplier Relationships -
Other -
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
16. Please describe the strategies and tactics your are
adopting to survive and thrive in the downturn?
Meetings Industry
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
17. What Future are we Creating?
• Key Clients
• Conversations
that Energise
• Key Choices
http://images.forbes.com/media/2008/02/22/downturn.jpg
20. Natural Resource Challenges
“Companies that are not adequately managing the
consequences of climate change on their business will
not be welcomed as our customers in the future”
Rick Murray
Images
http://www.masdarctf.com/images/aboutus_image.jpg
Chief Claims Strategist
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7180396.stm
http://www.operationnoah.org/images/uploads/Burning_planet_411x220.jpg
http://www.ci.tarpon-springs.fl.us/water%201.jpg Swiss Re
Image sources www.mondolithic.com, www.metoffice.com
33. Economic Power Shifts
The Top 20 in 2025?
GDP US$
Source: IMF WEO 2009, PwC ‘the World in 2050 March 2008 edition
34. Innovating Travel – The Middle East
US$ 4.1 Trillion investment by 2025
Over 1170 new hotels offering 820,000+ rooms by 2025
Capacity for 320 million extra passengers by 2012
130 new aircraft by 2030
170 million Tourists by 2020
36. Future of Travel
What will happen to your personal flying behaviour by 2015?
• 65% expect costs to rise on
domestic and international flights
Up Down
• Personal flights (Dom) 29% 28%
• Personal flights (Int) 39% 24%
• Travel Budgets 44% 32%
http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/10/15/SingaporeA380_w
ideweb__470x312,0.jpg
http://airlinewallpapers.com/gallery/albums/GermanWings/Germa
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events nwingsA319.png
37. I will book the bulk of my travel online by 2015
64%
31%
3% 2%
Very likely Likely Unlikely Very unlikely
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
38. Hotel Stays in 2015
What do you expect to happen to your personal hotel stays by 2015?
Up Down
• No. of nights (Dom) 31% 27%
• No. of nights (Int) 42% 23%
• Hotel Budgets 40% 32%
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
39. Self-Organising Events
Event organisers will show online videos of
potential speakers and delegates will vote
on who they most want to see (78%)
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
40. Unconferences and Large
Group Interventions
• Open Space
• Simu-Real
• Real Time Strategic Change
• Valentines
• Future Search
• Foo Camp
• Bar Camp
Most conferences and events will
incorporate large group processes such as
Open Space to facilitate joint problem
solving and sharing of ideas (82%)
http://www.ietm.org/upload/pictures/2_20070417203356.jpg
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events http://floatingterritories.org/ef10st/img/openspace.jpg
41. Event Content
• Professional speakers will be a rarity as events will focus 34%
more on interaction between delegates
• Speakers will be paid based on the evaluations they 48%
receive
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
42. Event Design
• Less large open stands and
more ‘appointment only’ booths
or suites (58%)
• Live product launches will be
rare and most will happen over
the internet (53%)
• Budgets for meeting and event
design will decrease relative to
2008 (59%)
http://www.civilization.ca/cmc/exhibitions/aborig/iqqaipaa/images/exhibition1.jpg
• The use of external meeting
planners will decrease relative
to 2008 (52%)
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
45. Augmented Reality
Video visors will record everything you see and hear at
an event in full 3D so you can replay it and relay it to
your colleagues (60%)
http://www.theapplecollection.com/design/pcproto/images/segavr.jpg
Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events http://www.virtualworldlets.net/Resources/Hosted/Resource.php?Name=ARWillWork
46. Event Technology
Use of display technologies such as 3D television and 3D
holograms will be common in live presentations (86%)
http://www.hdtvinfo.eu/pics/Philips_3D_TV.jpg
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://farm1.static.flickr.com/50/108326490_479ba8be45.jpg?v=0
47. Technology – Smart Phones
Telephony Connectivity
• Voice • Cellular
• Messaging • Up to 14 bands
• SIM card • WLAN/BT
• Phonebook • GPS
• Ring Tones • NFC
• Security • FM
Data/ Multimedia
Enterprise • Camera 8-16M
• 100Mbps • Camcorder
• Email • 24M Color Display
• IMS • Memory (160GB)
• Browsing • Multiformat A/V
• HD Video/TV out
• VPN
• Games
• PIM
• Ecommerce
Software (50-100M Tps)
• Protocols • DRM
• Payments
• Middleware
• Applications
• User Interface
• Minimize fragmentation
Participants will be able to monitor an entire event via their mobile phone and
determine which sessions to attend based on live video feeds (82%)
48. Virtual Meetings
Most conferences
will combine a live
event with online
participation via
virtual worlds
such as Second
Life (72%)
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://meetingtechonline.com/articles_Hosting_Virtual_Conferences.aspx
49. Telepresence
Telepresence video conferencing will be used to replace at least 50% of
international in-company meetings (50%)
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://i.treehugger.com/images/2007/5/24/videoconferencing.gif
50. Event Alternatives
• Most companies will insist on staff participating remotely 71%
using 3D meeting technology (such as video visors and
augmented reality) instead of travelling to events unless
essential
• Meeting rooms will generally include large 3D displays so 81%
that people can attend remotely
• Many virtual environment websites (like today's Second
Life) will exist to provide businesses with suitably equipped 58%
on-line meeting areas, staffed by AI assistants.
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events
51. Event Economics
Up Down
• Price of attending a 57% 28%
conference or meeting
• Cost of running a 70% 19%
conference or meeting
• Number of conferences 28% 35%
and meetings you’ll
attend
• Your budget for 36% 36%
conference / meeting
attendance
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://www.climatechangefraud.com/content/blogcategory/15/224/7/14/
52. Delegate Business Models
• Most events will have free 32%
attendance – paid for by sponsors
• Key attendees will wear sponsor 51%
logos in return for free participation
at events
• Events will adopt a ‘pay what you 22%
think it’s worth’ model for attendees
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events
53. Exhibitor Charging Models
• Events will offer exhibitors free stands
42%
in return for a proportion of the
revenues generated from an event
• Event organisers will offer free exhibitor 51%
space in return for a fee per pre-booked
meeting
• Event organisers will offer free exhibitor 55%
space in return for a fee per visitor
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events
54. New Revenue Models
• Live event attendees will have 56%
their participation fees
reduced according to the
number of attendees they can
generate for a parallel virtual
event
• Presentations at events will 88%
be streamed live to the web
so remote participants can
pay to watch individual
sessions
• All conference sessions will
86%
available to watch on a pay
per view basis after the event
http://www.aacr.org/
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://www.changethethought.com/wp-content/ted.jpg
57. Environmental Control
• Hotels and venues that do not have a zero 23%
environmental footprint (waste, energy use,
emissions) will be out of business
• Offsetting of emissions will be mandatory for all 77%
airlines
• Passengers will face personal carbon limits that
25%
dramatically restrict the number of flights they can
take
• Business people will need to apply for permits to fly,
18%
proving the business benefit outweighs
environmental impact
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events
58.
59. What does the timeline of
developments look like for your
key markets?
60. Meeting 2015 - Conclusions
• Demand will hold up
• Live still alive
• Technology central to
future delivery
• New business models
will evolve
• Sustainability still on the
agenda
http://www.mrcheckout.net/tradeshow454.jpg
http://davebost.com/images/FlyingaroundaVisualStudioLaunchevent_1331A/SLLaunch.jpg
61. Designing Your Future
• 50 key trends
• 100 emerging trends
• 10 major patterns of change
• Key challenges and choices for
leaders
• Strategic decision making
framework
• Scenarios for 2012
• Key futures tools and techniques
• Published August 2008
• Price $69.95 / £49.95 / €54.95
• Email invoice request to
rohit@fastfuture.com
62. Rohit Talwar - Profile
• Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.
• Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic
innovation – addressing leadership audiences in 40
countries on 5 continents
• Author of Designing Your Future – Published 08/2008
• Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top
10 Global Future Thinkers
• Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic
consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications,
technology, pharmaceuticals, banking, travel and tourism,
environment, food and government sectors
• Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De
Beers, DHL, EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai,
IBM, ING, Intel, KPMG, M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura,
Novartis, OECD, Orange, Panasonic, Pfizer, PwC,
Samsung, Shell, Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous
international associations and governments in the US, UK,
Finland, Dubai, Nigeria, S. Arabia and Singapore.
63. Our Services
Bespoke research; Identification &
Analysis of Future Trends, Drivers &
Shocks
Public Speaking, In-
Company Briefings, Accelerated Scenario
Seminars and Planning, Timelining &
Workshops Future Mapping
Personal Futuring for
Leaders and Leadership Expert Consultations &
Teams Futures Think Tanks
Identification of
Design & Facilitation of Opportunities for
Innovation, Incubation Innovation and Strategic
& Venturing
Programmes Strategy Creation & Investment
Development of
Implementation
Roadmaps
64. Example Projects
• Public and private client research e.g. the future of :
– The Future of Luxury Real Estate in the Middle East
– Designing Your Future (Published August 2008) – book written for the American Society
of Association Executives & The Center for Association Leadership
– Travel and tourism e.g. The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East – a Vision
to 2020 (Underway)
– Future of Travel and Tourism Investment in Saudi Arabia (Underway)
– Scenarios for the global economy for 2030 and the implications for migration (underway)
– Global Economies – e.g. The Future of China – the Path to 2020
– Winning in India and China
– Aviation and Airports e.g. Aviation 2030
– Meetings, conferences , exhibitions and events – e.g. One Step Beyond – Future trends
and challenges for the events industry
• Strategic advice to industry players
• Confidential advisory and coaching services to CEOs and top teams
• Public speaking at public conferences and in-company events
• Future thinking workshops and retreats