Analysis of 2013 FATA General Election Results (FAFEN report, January 2014)

FREE AND FAIR ELECTION NETWORK
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National Assembly Election
Results Analysis
Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT),
Comparative Turnout and Party Trends
January 2014
2013 GENERAL ELECTIONS

Free and Fair Election Network
2013 General Elections in Pakistan
National Assembly Election Results Analysis:
Parallel Vote Tabulations (PVTs), Comparative Turnout and Party Trends
January 2014
All rights reserved. Any part of this publication may be
produced or translated by duly acknowledging the source.
1st Edition: January 2014. Copies 1,000
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TDEA-FAFEN Election Observation Secretariat:
House 145, Street 37, F-10/1
Islamabad, Pakistan
Email: secretariat@fafen.org
Website: www.fafen.org

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The scope and magnitude of the Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN) election
observation effort required “all hands on deck” before and on Election Day and
beyond, and the network is fortunate and proud to boast a team that collectively rose
to the challenge. This report is the culmination of their hard work, perseverance and
resourcefulness.
More than 40,000 Election Day male and female observers were mobilized, trained
and managed by extremely hardworking and committed staff of FAFEN member
organizations. In addition, the entire staff at the TDEA-FAFEN Secretariat worked
around the clock to make the election observation effort a success.
TDEA-FAFEN Chief Executive Officer Muddassir Rizvi, Director of Program Rashid
Chaudhry and Rizwan Ayub deserve special mention, along with their incredible
team, including Fatima Raja, Rashid Abdullah, Raffat Malik, Khan Bahadur, Faisal
Khanzada and Ashley Barr. They worked tirelessly to design FAFEN's observation
methodologies and to implement multiple, complex and time-sensitive trainings for
all FAFEN election observers. FAFEN's success also would not have been possible
without the extraordinary effort by Syed Abdul Ahad, Safia Zain and their team, who
worked long hours to secure accreditation of FAFEN's observers by the Election
Commission of Pakistan.
The tremendous amount of data received as a result of this unprecedented initiative
has been managed and analyzed into insightful findings and recommendations for
election reforms by Director Election Oversight, Research and Reforms Saud
Sahibzada. He was supported by FAFEN's data management team, led by Ch. M. Yasser
Javed with assistance from Asma Bibi, Adeela Hamid, Ibrahim Mughal, Shahid Zaidi
and a host of data entry officers, who laid the foundation for the analysis. The
contribution of GIS expert Adeel Arif helped realize the goal of mapping
constituencies and plotting variables on regional maps. The report writing and editing
unit, which was led by Usama Zafar and included Kamran Aziz and Mohsin Shayan,
crafted the narration of this report and helped see it through three drafts. This list of
key contributors would not be complete without mentioning the talented FAFEN
report design team of Hammad Hussain, Muhammad Rizwan and Azhar Ali.
TDEA-FAFEN appreciates the generous financial support of the United Kingdom's
Department for International Development (DFID), the European Union (EU), the
United States Agency for International Aid (USAID) and The Asia Foundation (TAF).
In addition, TDEA-FAFEN wishes to acknowledge the Election Commission for
allowing Pakistan's largest citizen observation of an election, setting a new benchmark
for election transparency in Pakistan.
ZahidIslam,
Chairperson
TDEA-FAFEN Board of Trustees
Trustees:
Faiz-ur-Rehman Mashal
Ghaffar Shah
Maimoona Noor
Mossarat Qadeem
Mukhtar Javed
Nasrullah
Owais Aslam Ali
Sadiqa Sallahuddin
Sarwar Bari
Shakir Ishaq
Syed Shah Nasir Khisro
Younas Bandhani
Zaheer Khattak
Zahid Islam
Zubair Ambia
Association for Creation of
Employment (ACE)
All Women's Advancement and
Resource Development (AWARD)
Awaz Foundation Pakistan-Centre
for Development Services
Baanhn Beli
BEDARI
Basic Education for Awareness
Reforms and Empowerment
(BEFARe)
CAVISH Development Foundation
Community Awareness Raising
and Advocacy Ventures Around
Needs (CARAVAN)
Community Development
Program (CDP)
Centre for Peace and Development
(CPD)
Centre for Peace and Development
Initiatives (CPDI)
Center for Research and
Development (CRD)
DEVCON-An Association for Rural
Development
Goth Seengar Foundation (GSF)
Indus Resource Centre (IRC)
Integrated Regional Support
Program (IRSP)
Khwendo Kor
LEGEND Society
Punjab Lok Sujag
PAIMAN Alumni Trust
PATTAN Development
Organization
Forum for Human Rights Pakistan
(FHRP)
SANGAT Development Foundation
Strengthening Participatory
Organization (SPO)
SUDHAAR
SUNGI Development Foundation
Takhleeq Foundation
United Rural Development
Organization (URDO)
Youth Organization
Implementing Partners

ABBREVIATIONS
AHTP Awami Himayat Tehreek Pakistan
AJIP Awami Jamhuri Ittehad Pakistan
AJPP Awami Justice Party Pakistan
AJSP Aap Janab Sarkar Party
AKUFR Aalay Kalam Ullah Farman Rasool (saw)
AMLP Awami Muslim League Pakistan
ANP Awami National Party
APBP All Pakistan Bayrozgar Party
APML All Pakistan Muslim League
APP Azad Pakistan Party
APYWP All Pakistan Youth Working Party
AQM Afgan Qomi Movement (Pakistan)
AQP Awami Qiadat Party
AWP Awami Workers Party
BNAP Bahawalpur National Awami Party
BNC Balochistan National Congress
BNDP Balochistan National Democratic Party
BNM Balochistan National Movement
BNP Balochistan National Party
BNP-A Balochistan National Party (Awami)
CPM Christian Progressive Movement
CPP Communist Party of Pakistan
GAP Ghareeb Awam Party
HAIP Hazara Awami Ittehad Pakistan
HDP Hazara Democratic Party
HQM Hazara Qaumi Mahaz
IIP Islami Inqalab Party
IMH Ittehad Milli Hazara
IND Independent
IP Istiqlil Party
IPM Istehkaam-e-Pakistan Movement
IRP Islamic Republican Party
ITP Islami Tehreek Pakistan
JAHP-EZ Jamait Ahle-Hadith Pakistan (Elahi Zaheer)
JI Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan
JPP Jannat Pakistan Party
JQM Jamote Qami Movement
JUI Jamiat Ulama-e-Islam (F)
JUI-Nazryati Jamiat Ulama-e-Islam Nazryati Pakistan
JUI-S Jamiat Ulama-e-Islam (S)
JUP-Niazi Jamiat Ulma-e-Pakistan (Niazi)
JUP-Noorani Jamiat Ulma-e-Pakistan (Noorani)
JUP-NS JamiatUlema-e-pakistan(Nifaz-e-Shariat)
JWP Jamhoori Wattan Party
KJPP Kakar Jamhoori Party Pakistan
KMP Karwan-i-Millat Pakistan
LPP Labour Party Pakistan
LPP-K Labour Party Pakistan(Krandi)
MAPP Menecracy Action Party of Pakistan
MBMP Mutahida Baloch Movement Pakistan
MDM Mutahida Deeni Mahaz
MIT Mohajir Ittehad Tehrik
MJH Markazi Jamat-al-Hadais
MJMP Markazi Jamiat Mushaikh Pakistan
MJUP (FK) Markazi Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan (FK)
MMA Muttahidda Majlis-e-Amal Pakistan
MNAKA Mohib-e-Wattan Nowjawan Inqilabion Ki Anjuman
MP MustaqbIl Pakistan
MQM Muttahidda Qaumi Movement
MQMP Mohajar Qaumi Movement Pakistan
MQP Mutahidda Qabil Party
MWMP Majlis-e-Wahdat-e-Muslimeen Pakistan
NA National Alliance
NMP Nizam-e-Mustafa Party
NP National Party
NPP National Peoples Party
NPP-WG National People Party Worker Group
PAI Pakistan Awami Inqalab
PAmP Pakistan Aman Party
PAP Pakistan Awami Party
PAQP Pakistan Awami Quwat Party
Pasban Pasban
PAT Pakistan Awami Tehreek
PATI Pakistan Awami Tehrik-e-Inqilab
PBP Pakistan Brohi Party
PCM Pakistan Citizen Movement
PCP Pakistan Conservative Party
PDP Pakistan Democratic party
PFP Pakistan Freedom Party
PFP (Falah) Pakistan Falah Party
PGP Pakistan Gharib Party
PHRP Pakistan Human Rights Party
PIHP Pakistan Insani Haqook Party
PIJP Pakistan Islami Justice Party
PIT Pakistan Ittehad Tehreek
PJP Pakistan Justice Party
PKI Pakistan Kissan Ittehad
PKMAP Pukhtoonkhwa Milli Awami Party
PMA Pak Muslim Alliance
PMhL Pakistan Muhajir League
PMKP Pakistan Mazdoor Kissan Party
PML Pakistan Muslim League
PMLC Pakistan Muslim League Council
PML-F Pakistan Muslim League (F)
PML-H Pakistan Muslim League “H” Haqiqi
PML-Humkhiyal Pakistan Muslim League Humkhiyal (Like Minded)
PML-J Pakistan Muslim League (J)
PML-M Pakistan Muslim League-Muttahida
PML-N Pakistan Muslim League (N)
PML-S Pakistan Muslim League (S)
PML-Z Pakistan Muslim League(Z)
PMP Pakistan Muhammadi Party
PMWP Pakistan Muhafiz Watan Party
PNDP Pakistan National Democratic Party
PNML Pakistan National Muslim League
PNP Punjab National Party
PPM Pakistan Patriotic Movement
PPPP Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians
PPP-S Pakistan Peoples party(Sherpao)
PPP-SB Pakistan Peoples Party (Shaheed Bhutto)
PQL Pakistan Qaumi League
PQP Pakistan Qaumi Party
PSDP Pakistan Social Democratic party
PSP Pakistan Saraiki Party
PSPP Pakistan Shia Political Party
PST Pakistan Sunni Tehreek
PTI Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf
PTI (Inqalab) Pakistan Tehreek-e-Inqalab
PWP Pak Wattan Party
PWrP Pakistan Workers Party
QAT Qomi Awami Tehreek
QIP Qaumi Inqilab Party
QJP Qaumi Jamhoori Party
QTP Qaumi Tahaffaz Party of Pakistan
QWP Qaumi Watan Party
RPMWP Roshan Pakistan Muhaibban Wattan Party
SDI Sindh Dost Ittehad (SDI) Party
SIC Sunni Ittehad Council
SPkP Salam Pakistan Party
SPP Shan-e-Pakistan Party
SQI Sairkistan Qaumi Ittehad
SSMP Seraiki Sooba Movement Pakistan
ST Sunni Tehreek
STP Sindh Taraqi Passand Party (STP)
SUP Sindh United Party
SURA Sindh Urban-Rurel Alliance
THP Tehreek Hussainia Pakistan
TI Tehrik-e-Istaqlal
TIP Tehreek-e-Istehkaam Pakistan
TIUP Tehreek-e-Ittehad Ummat Pakistan
TM Tehrik-e-Masawaat
TPP Tameer-e-Pakistan Party
TSH Tehreek-e-Suba Hazara
TTNP Tehreek Tabdili Nizam Pakistan
TTP Tehreek-e-Tahaffuze Pakistan
TWP Tehreek-e-Wafaq Pakistan

TABLE OF CONTENTS
KEYFINDINGS i
Registered Voters Conundrum i
Turnout Trends ii
Higher Number of Rejected Votes iii
Voting and Party Trends iii
PVTFINDINGS iv
PVTMETHODOLOGY v
Background v
PVT Sample v
READINGPVTFINDINGS vi
Statistical Equivalence vi
Reading PVT vii
Population and Sample: Registered Voters viii
Population and Sample: Distribution of Polling Stations viii
Categorization of Form XIV viii
Comparative Turnout by Type of Polling Stations viii
Election Day Observations at a Glance viii
KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA
(NA-1 to NA-35)
pg. 1 to 1471 to 147
ISLAMABAD CAPITAL TERRITORY
(NA-48, NA-49)
pg. 197 to 211197 to 211
SINDH
(NA-198 to NA-258)
pg. 805 to 1047805 to 1047
FATA
(NA-36 to NA-47)
pg. 149 to 195149 to 195
PUNJAB
(NA-50 to NA-197)
pg. 213 to 803213 to 803
BALOCHISTAN
(NA-259 to NA-272)
pg. 1049 to 11111049 to 1111

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I i
KEY FINDINGS
to the 2008 elections. The increase across the
constituencies, however, remained skewed. The
addition of new voters ranged from a mere 284
in NA-169 to a substantial 143,117 in NA-128.
Ÿ The issue of under-registration of women voters
continues to shadow the constitutionally
promised universality and equal representation
of voters in the 2013 elections, albeit with
varying intensity across regions. Of the 86.2
million voters, 43.6% were females compared
to the 80 million voters in 2008 with 44%
female voters.
Ÿ· At the provincial level, the ratio has skewed
further towards the male side in Punjab and
Balochistan—percentages of female voters
1. RegisteredVotersConundrum
The 2013 elections were the first to be held on
voters' list compiled from the data of Computerized
National Identity Cards (CNIC) holders. While the
measure did affect an increase in the overall number
of registered voters, the impact on registered voters'
numbers for constituencies varied.
Ÿ Compared with the 2008 elections, the number
of registered voters decreased in 100
constituencies. The decrease in constituencies'
voters varied from the lowest of 580 in NA-168
to the highest of 241,692 in NA-266.
Ÿ In the rest–166 of the 266 constituencies–the
number of registered voters increased compared
The 2013 general elections in Pakistan marked a watershed in the electoral and democratic history of the
country. The elections were held following the completion of the constitutional tenure of the outgoing
assemblies—the first such transition from one purely civilian government to another. The elections were
also the first to be organized by the post-18th Constitutional Amendment restructuring of the Election
Commission of Pakistan (ECP).
FAFEN, the leading civil society network covering issues of election and governance, achieved its own
landmark in implementing the largest citizen observation exercise to date. The findings of the observation,
both on-field and desk, are compiled in a series of reports covering all aspects of the 2013 National
Assembly general elections. One of several, this report focuses on the election results and their historical
and comparative significance at the constituency level.
The goal behind the report is to present not only a citizen-led Parallel Vote Tabulation exercise but also an
in-depth analysis of party and turnout trends and voting pattern in each National Assembly constituency.
Furthermore, given the lack of data in previous elections on turnout trends across the gender divide, the
report partially answers the question at regional and national levels by calculating the estimated turnouts by
the three (male, female and combined) types of polling stations. FAFEN believes the report will serve as an
academic and practical guide to understand the complexities of voting behavior in light of each
constituency's political context.
The report has been prepared by information obtained through the official documents released by the ECP
as well as through field observers deployed by FAFEN on Election Day, in particular the Form XIV - the
forms on which the results of polling stations are compiled by the presiding officers.
This report reviews the results of 266 of the 272 general seats of the National Assembly. The remaining six
constituencies are not in the purview of this report owing to reasons listed as under.
a. Elections were not held in three constituencies (NA-38, NA-83 and NA-254) as part of the general
election exercise.
b. The gazette results were withheld due to:
i. ECP's order of re-polling at 21 polling stations of NA-46
ii. ECP's order for recounting of votes in NA-103
iii. Supreme Court order to withhold the notification for NA-237
The key findings, as does the rest of the report, therefore, do not account for the above-mentioned
constituencies. The summary of findings, covering 266 of the 272 National Assembly general seats, is as
follows.

w w w . f a f e n . o r gI
changed from 45.9% in 2008 to 42.6% in 2013
in Balochistan and dropped from 45% in 2008
to 43.8% in 2013 in Punjab. The percentages of
female voters have increased from 2008 to 2013
in; FATA (from 30.1% to 34.2%), Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa (from 40.7% to 42.8%), ICT
(from 45.8% to 46.3%) and more marginally in
Sindh (from 44.2% to 44.8%).
Ÿ Constituency level tracking of registered voters
from the finalization of the polling scheme to
the result Form XVII and official gazette reveals
discrepancies. First, the final polling scheme was
not published for the 14 constituencies of
Balochistan and two constituencies of Punjab,
namely, NA-105 and NA-107. Furthermore,
while the final polling scheme files for NA-90
and NA-178 are available on the ECP website,
the data is not accessible for the former due to
password protected status of the file. In the case
of the latter, NA-178, the file only has the overall
voter and polling scheme totals and not the
detailed polling scheme itself. It is important to
note that the calculation of registered voters in
the final polling scheme is based on the listing
and calculation of the voter numbers against the
smallest unit in the polling scheme–the census
bloc.
Ÿ The distribution of constituencies showing
voter discrepancy is significantly skewed across
regions. Punjab leads with 57 of the 93
constituencies showing a difference of voters
between the final polling scheme and result
Form XVII. Khyber Pukhtunkhwa has 16 such
constituencies followed by Sindh (15), FATA
(4) and ICT (1). Of the total of 246,858 votes in
question, Punjab accounts for 233,225
(94.5%), Khyber Pukhtunkhwa 6,462 (2.6%),
Sindh 6,317(2.6%), FATA 580 (0.2%) and ICT
274 (0.1%).
1
Ÿ Of the rest of the 254 constituencies, the
numbers of registered voters in 93
constituencies were recorded differently in their
2
respective final polling scheme and election
3
results . An absolute discrepancy of
v o t e r s w a s r e c o r d e d i n t h e 9 3
constituencies—decrease of 39,499 in 30
constituencies and increase of 207,359 in 63
constituencies.
Ÿ Furthermore, the number of registered voters
for the constituencies is not mentioned in the
official gazette of returned candidates. While the
246,858
number of registered votes was mentioned
earlier in unofficial result Form XVII, it was the
number of rejected votes that was not
mentioned in Form XVII.
The turnout across regions and most constituencies
shows encouraging trends. PVT estimates
aggregated for the 266 constituencies show a
turnout of 54.7% (+/-0.03%) at the national
level–ECP's turnout for the same is 55.7%.
Ÿ Barring 11 constituencies, the rest—255
constituencies—recorded a turnout in excess of
35%--turnout of 26 constituencies ranged
between 35-45%, 61 in the range of 45.1-55%,
152 constituencies in the range of 55.1-65%,
while that of 16 constituencies surpassed 65%.
Ÿ Compared to their respective average turnout of
the 2002 and 2008 elections, only six
constituencies recorded a decrease in the 2013
elections. Of the six, three constituencies'– NAs-
272, 271 and 42–turnout declined substantially
by 17.3%, 15.3% and 13.6% respectively. Three
other constituencies'–NAs 26, 106 and
107–turnout dropped by less than 1%. Of the
other 260 constituencies, 23 constituencies
recorded an increase in excess of 20%, 72 had an
increase ranging from 15-20%, 74 between
10.1-15%, 73 between 5.1 to 10% range while
18 recorded a marginal increase under 5%.
Ÿ The turnout analysis by demographic categories
has the rural constituencies leading the chart
with majority rural and predominantly rural
constituencies recording turnouts of 58% and
56% respectively. Majority urban, semi-urban
and predominantly urban constituencies follow
with 55.5%, 53.5% and 53.2% respectively.
Ÿ From a comparative perspective however, the
ranking is led by the urban constituencies. The
substantial increase in turnout is most evident in
semi-urban constituencies where compared to
the 2008 elections, the 2013 turnout increased
by 17%, followed by majority urban and
predominantly urban constituencies with
turnout increase of 13.2% and 12.8%
respectively. Among rural constituencies, the
predominantly rural constituencies achieved an
increase of 10.9% in their collective turnout
while the majority rural recorded an increase of
10.6% compared to the 2008 elections.
2. TurnoutTrends
ii
1
Balochistan's 14 constituencies as well as NA-90, NA-105, NA-170 and NA-178 are not accounted for owing to the non-availability of
their final polling schemes.
2
Detailed final polling scheme for all regions barring Balochistan and four constituencies of Punjab were accessible
at http://ecp.gov.pk/PollingScheme.aspx, downloaded on May 16th, 2013.
3
Form XVII data was accessible from http://ecp.gov.pk/electionresult/AllResults.aspx?assemblyid=NA , downloaded on September 16th, 2013.

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I iii
Ÿ A closer look at the turnout trend reveals a
continuation of female under-participation
compared to male voters. The PVT estimates
aggregated at national and regional levels by
types of polling station exhibits lower turnout
trends at female exclusive polling stations
compared to exclusively male and combined
polling stations. The estimated turnout for
female polling stations was 50.7% (±0.07%)
whereas the turnouts for male and combined
polling stations were 58.5% (±0.06%) and
54.8% (±0.04%) respectively.
A key issue observed in the 2013 elections is the
disproportionate and significant increase in the
number of rejected votes—the number while
increasing from 775,720 in 2002 to 973,694 in
2008 recorded a substantial increase of 64% to
reach 1,502,717 in the 266 constituencies
observed.
Ÿ The issue of rejected votes is critical not merely
due to the numbers but also given the skewed
distribution across constituencies and
regions–the numbers range from 0 in NA-53 to
25,908 in NA-266.
Ÿ The distribution of rejected votes paints a
somber picture in that only 27 of the 266
constituencies have less than 2,000 rejected
votes. Of the rest, 78 had rejected votes from
2,000-5,000, 148 constituencies ranged in
5,001-10,000, and ten constituencies fell in the
10,001 to 15,000 category while three
constituencies had rejected votes exceeding
15,000.
Ÿ From the results' perspective, the issue is
highlighted further by the fact that the number
of rejected votes exceeds the margin of victory in
35 of the 266 constituencies covered in this
report. Of these, the rejected votes outnumber
the margin of victory by less than 1,000 votes in
six indicating an acquired importance of
rejected votes due to close competition. In the
other 29 constituencies, the number of rejected
votes outweighs the margin of victory by as little
as 1,140 (NA-153) and as many as 19,701 (NA-
266).
The 2013 election witnessed returns for parties that
varied across regions and provinces. While Sindh
largely produced similar results—PPPP dominated
rural Sindh while MQM urban areas, particularly
Karachi—the other provinces underwent a
significant change. PML-N and PTI were the largest
3. HigherNumberofRejectedVotes
4. VotingandPartyTrends
beneficiaries of the change in Punjab and Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa while Pakhtun and Baloch nationalist
parties made a strong comeback in Balochistan.
Among the religious parties, JUI—while far from
the overwhelming performance of MMA—secured
significant votes and seats in both Khyber
Pukhtunkhwa and Balochistan. The elections, apart
from Sindh, could be seen as an expression of no-
confidence against the ruling party—PPPP—and its
coalition partners.
Ÿ For the 2013 elections, a total of 4,462
contestants vied for the 266 constituencies
covered in this report. PTI fielded the most
candidates, competing from 230 constituencies,
followed by PPPP (227), PML-N (215) and
MQM (207). Independent candidates
constituted the largest group with 2,343 while
other parties fielded a total of 1,240 candidates
cumulatively.
Ÿ From the perspective of gender representation
and participation, the 2013 elections had the
most female candidates (161) compared to the
number of female candidates in the previous
two elections—75 and 61 candidates contested
in 2008 and 2002 elections respectively.
Most–123 of the 161–contested either as
independent candidates (95) or from the
platform of smaller/regional parties (28).
Among the mainstream parties, PPPP awarded
tickets to 15 females, followed by MQM, PML-
N, PTI, and PML with 8, 7, 6 and 2 candidates
respectively.
Ÿ Of the 161 women contestants, only 6 were
successful in winning their seats in the 2013
elections compared to 16 and 13 successful
female candidates for the 2008 and 2002
general elections respectively. Three female
candidates each from PPPP and PML-N secured
the constituencies, as against successful female
candidates representing four parties in 2008 and
five in 2002.
Ÿ PML-N won 126 of the 266 constituencies
covered in this report. PPPP was a distant second
with 33 followed by PTI (28 seats), MQM (18),
JUI (11), PML-F (5), JI and PKMAP (3 each),
NPP and PML (2 each). Of the rest, 27 seats were
secured by independent candidates while ANP,
APML, PML-Z, BNP, AMLP, AJIP, QWP and NP
shared one seat each.
Ÿ A measure of the desire for change among the
electorate can be ascertained from the fact that of
the 266 constituencies, 144 featured winning
candidates with their current political affiliation
for the first time since the 2002 election. Of the
rest of the 116 constituencies, 58 each returned

w w w . f a f e n . o r gI
The PVT estimates calculated for 264 of the 272 constituencies reveals:
Ÿ The ECP's turnout in 62 of these constituencies is “equivalent” to the PVT estimated turnout.
In the 202 constituencies where the ECP turnout is not equivalent of the PVT estimates, 141
constituencies' turnout exceeds the upper bound of the margin while 61 are under the lower
bound.
Ÿ Of the 264 constituencies, 218 constituencies have the same winner, runner-up and second
runner-up in both the ECP and PVT estimates.
Ÿ Of the remaining 46 constituencies, the PVT estimates for 18 constituencies have a different
winner than the ECP's. These results however, are equivalent—the ECP candidates' shares are
within the margin—and therefore do not foreclose the possibility of the results as announced
by the ECP.
Ÿ Of the rest, while having a similar winner, the PVT estimates for 10 constituencies have a
different runner-up with another 18, while having the same winner and runner-up, has a
different 2nd runner-up. Accounting for the margin of sampling error for individual
candidates, the ECP results are 'equivalent'—the ECP's candidate shares fall within the margin
of sampling error.
Ÿ Individual assessment of the top three position holders in the PVT estimates compared with
the ECP's data reveal 19 out of the 264 winners to be outside the margin of error. Of these 19,
three winners had votes that were above the upper bound while 16 were below the lower
bound.
Ÿ Among the runner-ups, 15 of the 264 had estimated share that were incompatible with the
ECP's data—eight having share of votes exceeding the upper bound while seven below the
lower bound.
Ÿ Among the second runner-ups, 19 of the 264 had estimated vote share for which the ECP data
showed figures above or below the margin-adjusted estimates. Of these, 16 had share of votes
that exceeded the upper bound while three had votes below the lower bound of the estimates.
PVT FINDINGS
iv
candidates/parties for the second and third
consecutive time.
Ÿ PML-N replaced PPPP as the largest party,
securing 14,794,632 (32.6%) of the
45,416,463 votes polled in the 266
constituencies. PTI was the distant second with
7,738,270 (17.0%) votes followed by PPPP
(6,973,169 or 15.4% votes), MQM (2,455,313
or 5.4% votes) while independent candidates
cumulatively got 5,810,894 (12.8%) votes.
While no other party reached the 2 million vote
figure, JUI (1,486,261), PML (1,410,113), and
PML-F (1,072,846) were successful in
garnering support of over 1 million voters.
Ÿ Among the three leading parties, PML-N
secured the largest, though less than the
majority share, of the votes polled in each of the
five demographic categories of constituencies.
The party was able to get 29.1% of the votes
polled in predominantly urban constituencies,
42.6% of the majority urban, 36.4% of semi
urban, 31.5% of the majority rural and 33.1% of
the predominantly rural constituencies.
Ÿ PTI, the second largest party had 24.7% of the
vote polled in predominantly urban
constituencies, 23.1% of the majority urban,
14.2% of the semi-urban, 13.8% of the majority
rural and 15% of the votes polled in
predominantly rural constituencies. PPPP as the
third major party outperformed PTI in
predominantly rural, majority rural and semi-
urban constituencies securing 17.2%, 21.8%
and 21.4% of the votes polled in the respective
categories. The party however performed
poorly in predominantly and majority urban
constituencies securing 6.9% and 12.1% votes
polled in the respective type of constituencies.

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I v
PVT METHODOLOGY
Background
A Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) compares the observed vote count in a sample of polling stations
with the compiled election result for that constituency in order to provide evidence that confirms or
disputes the official election result. PVT methodology was developed over twenty years ago and has
been applied in many countries around the world by international and domestic election monitoring
organizations as a proven analytical method for verifying the accuracy of government vote counts.
The PVT is based on direct observation of vote counting in a scientifically-verifiable, robust sample of
the polling stations in each constituency.
Experience with past PVTs has shown that drawing a sample of 25-30 polling stations provides
sufficient data, within a relatively small margin of sampling error, to assess the reasonableness of
official election results. Adding additional polling stations to the sample, even when the number of
total polling stations is large, would not improve the margins of sampling error dramatically.
The reason for this statistical principle is that a PVT works with “cluster samples” – each polling
station “cluster” averages 1,000 registered voters, and 25 polling stations in a constituency produces
a sample of 25,000 voters (25 polling stations x 1,000 voters each) which is much more than
statistically sufficient to permit comparisons with official results.
Although the PVT cannot measure other election-related problems like vote buying, voter
intimidation, ballot box stuffing, or the use of ghost polling stations, PVTs are designed to identify
potential inaccuracies in the official count by comparing it with actual observed and verified vote
counts at sampled polling stations. The PVT can help detect centralized changes in vote counts if the
percentage vote in official count differs in a statistically significant way from the percentages
calculated from the PVT sample. In cases in which election commissions release polling-station level
election results, PVT counts for sampled polling stations and ECP polling station data can be
compared directly.
PVT Sample
As one of its key objectives, the 2013 election observation framework of FAFEN envisaged Parallel
Vote Tabulation (PVT) exercise for each of the 272 National Assembly constituencies. A sample of
9,160 polling stations across the 272 constituencies was drawn to provide estimates of votes polled
by individual candidates in each NA constituency. The sample was worked out for each constituency
using the detailed draft polling scheme of individual constituencies. The sampling steps are
summarized below.
Step1:
Step2:
Step3:
The sample for each constituency was drawn with the aim of achieving a standard error of
0.6 to 0.8% at 95% confidence level. The estimated coverage of voters was determined to
help achieve the specified standard error.
The number of average voters/polling station for each of the constituency was calculated.
The required number of polling stations was determined and selected randomly.

w w w . f a f e n . o r gIvi
The PVT estimates were calculated for 264 of the 272 National Assembly constituencies. The eight
constituencies not covered were due to the following reasons.
1. Constituencies–NAs 38, 83 and 254–where elections were not held as part of the general
election exercise on May 11, 2013 were not observed and hence their respective PVTs as well as
trends analysis is not in the purview of this report. The rationale for not including these
constituencies in the trends analysis rests in the fact that the dynamics of general elections vis-à-
vis by-elections significantly varies and hence a report on general elections does not warrant the
inclusion of these constituencies.
2. Given the incomplete data of both, Form XVII and official gazette, constituencies–NAs 46, 103
and 237–that did not have their gazette results available were not analyzed in this report. The
availability of the gazette as a primary factor is critical in that Form XVII–the unofficial result
form–did not mention the number of rejected votes. Furthermore, the results of the
aforementioned constituencies were disputed and not published in gazette results sighting
reasons that could potentially lead to changing of party positions and hence leaving the analysis
exercise redundant. For instance, NA-237's results were withheld pending adjudication by the
Supreme Court, while the results of NAs 46 and 103 were not published following the ECP's
orders; for re-polling at 21 polling stations in the former's and complete recount in the latter's
case.
3. While the above-mentioned constituencies were not included in this report, there were other
constituencies, namely NA-240 and NA-250, where general trends analysis has been done.
However, the PVT estimates for these constituencies are not included in the report owing to
lack of reasonable levels of data to conduct the exercise.
Against the planned sample, the election-day observers were able to collect voting data of 8,495
polling stations--1,963 male, 1,797 female, and 4,735 combined polling stations. The sample
accounted for a total of 10,523,594 voters--2,651,551 in male polling stations, 1,985,444 in
female polling stations and 5,886,599 in combined polling stations. The sample was drawn from the
preliminary polling scheme data of the ECP that enumerated a total of 69,895 polling stations
catering to 85,943,308 voters.
READING PVT FINDINGS
The following information will help understand the constituency-wise result analysis based on PVT
data. Each constituency page includes information about the comparison of PVT estimate and the ECP
result, and turnout and candidate wise breakup of polled votes in the sampled polling stations.
StatisticalEquivalence
PVT vote percentages are estimates from a sample and hence subject to sampling error. The error is
affected by:
a. The size of the sample—the more the sample size, the lessor the error
b. The level of variance—the more the variance in the votes polled for individual candidate across
polling stations, the higher the margin of error of that candidate's vote estimates.
c. The more the number of nominal categories for which the dependent variable is measured the
more the error. For instance, the estimates of votes polled for two candidates are more likely to
yield lower margins of error for individual candidate's estimates than their respective estimates
in case of more candidates.
Cumulatively, the above are factored in to measure the degree of uncertainty about the calculated

w w w . f a f e n . o r g I vii
estimates and expressed as Margin of Sampling Error. The Margin of Sampling Error establishes the
upper and lower bound for an estimate's variation in case of resampling of the same universe and
observation of the same variable.
Given the above observations, the PVT estimates compared with the ECP's data of votes polled for
each candidate must be read cognizant of the lower and upper bound of the PVT candidates' ratio. In
other words, if a candidate's votes as declared by the ECP are within the lower and upper boundaries,
the results are “EQUIVALENT”.
However, if the ECP estimates are outside the upper and lower most estimated percentages, it is
statistically improbable–the more the difference the more improbable–that the ECP data and the PVT
sample represent the same universe/population. The implication being that either a few non-
sampled polling stations had highly anomalous and skewed voting pattern compared to the other
polling stations in the constituency or that the difference is not a matter of chance and is instead a case
of design–in other words, tampering of the results.
43.6
26.6
20.8
55.4
34.5
21.5
49.2
15.9
42.9
18.4
10.3
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
PML-N
PTI
PPPP
PVT Estimate and Election Commission Result, NA-49
Pakistan National Assembly Election 2013
Reading PVT (Fig 9)
NOTE: Margins of Sampling Error are DIFFERENT of each candidate in
each constituency and must not be compared between candidates.
ME depends not only on sample size but also vote
variation for that particular candidate!
NOTE: Only data for top three candidates are presented in the chart.
Margin of Sampling Error
for First Runner Up
PVT Estimated Vote Percentage for Winning Candidate
Margin of
Sampling
Error (half
of CI) for
Winning
Candidate
95% CONFIDENCE
INTERVAL (CI) for
Winning Candidate
26.5
PVT Estimate ECP Results

w w w . f a f e n . o r gIviii
PopulationandSample:RegisteredVoters(Fig10)
PopulationandSample:DistributionofPollingStations(Fig11)
CategorizationofFormXIV
ComparativeTurnoutbyTypeofPollingStations(Fig12)
ElectionDayObservationsataGlance
Figure 10 lays out the universe–all registered voters in the constituency as per the preliminary polling
scheme–and the number of voters covered by the PVT sample for the constituency.
Figure 11 provides the information on the distribution of voters by type of polling station–as per the
preliminary polling scheme used as the sampling frame–and the number of polling station by type in
the sample for which the data is analyzed.
Categorization of the received data–Form XIV, the forms on which polling station's results are
compiled–provides information on the quality of data received and used for the PVT.
Ÿ Category A refers to Form XIVs received from the polling stations on the day of elections that are
signed and stamped, are legible and have all the information properly documented.
Ÿ Category B refers to legible forms collected on the election-day that do not have the polling
official's signature or stamp or all the information.
Ÿ Category C forms are those collected from the polling station on election-day that may not have
the polling official's signature and/or stamp and/or have some over writing and/or not legible.
Ÿ Category D forms are the ones collected from the Returning Officer's secretariat on or after the
election-day or have the results compiled by FAFEN's election-day observers on prescribed forms
issued to them. Such forms have been mostly employed to verify data of the first three categories
and for accounting for the data of polling stations for which the data could not be collected from
the polling station on the day of the election.
Comparative turnout by type of polling station in the constituency has two components. The turnout
numbers are exact calculation of the votes polled in the observed polling stations type. The overall
estimate of the turnout in the constituency, however, is an estimated turnout with the margin of
error duly calculated and mentioned. The reason for not calculating estimated turnout for all polling
stations by individual type is rested in the in-adequacy of the sample size to account for inferred
turnouts for the polling station types at the constituency level. The number of polling station by type,
however are sufficient to draw estimates for the polling station type at the provincial/regional level.
The table titled “election-day observations at a glance”, accounts for a summarized observation of
the sampled polling stations and polling booths observed by static and mobile observer in the
constituency. The numbers of irregularities observed in each constituency in this report is aimed to
contextualize the findings and analysis of the election results. The detailed report on election-day
process observation is being compiled and published separately.

w w w . f a f e n . o r g
FATA
About FATA
FATA is home to an estimated 2.3% of the national population
and 2% of the registered voters. The region given its strong
tribal structure has the worst male-female ratio–65.8% to
34.2%--the most severe among the federation's regions.
The region has 12 (4.4%) National Assembly constituencies
assigned–almost twice its proportionate national share of
population. Of these 12, all but one constituency–NA-38–had
general elections held. A key factor distinguishing the 2013
elections from the previous ones is the extension of Political
Parties Act through a Presidential decree prior to the elections
allowing political parties to operate and contest from the region
for the first time.
While all except one constituency of Balochistan are categorized
as predominantly rural, all the 12 constituencies of FATA fall in
this category. Elections were held in all but one
constituency–NA-38 and one constituency's–NA-46–results
were delayed pending re-election on select polling stations. A
total of 292 candidates contested from the 10 constituencies
covered in this report. Of these, 218 were independents while
the rest represented parties. Among those, PML-N, PTI and JUI
had fielded candidates from all of the ten constituencies, JI from
9 while 35 others contested from smaller parties.
Estimated Population
Reg. Voters (Form XVII)
Reg. Voters (Final Polling Scheme)
Male Voters *
Female Voters *
NA Constituencies
Constituencies Analyzed
*
*
*
*
4,296,194
1,478,947
1,479,327
1,146,542
596,993
12 (NA-36 to NA-47)
10
* The numbers do not account for NA-38 and NA-46.
** The figures are calculated from the Constituency Summary Sheet released days before election,
available at http://ecp.gov.pk/PollingStationsStatistics.aspx, accessed September 10, 2013.

FATA
w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 151
TurnoutTrends
a. VotesPolled:2002to2013
Like most other regions, FATA also witnessed
an overall increase in polled votes since 2002.
Almost 0.33 million votes were polled in
FATA in general election 2002 which
increased to approximately 0.4 million in
2008 and 0.55 million in 2013.
b. Average Turnout by Demographic
Category
Turnout in predominantly rural
constituencies of FATA remained equal to the
overall turnout of the region because all
constituencies are categorized as
predominantly rural. The turnout remained
around 26% in 2002, increased to 28% in
2008 and further improved to 32% in 2013.
c. Distribution of Constituencies by
Turnout and Demographic Categories
Of the 10 constituencies for which the gazette
result was published, four had less than 35%
turnout while in the other four it was in the
range of 35 to 45%. One constituency
witnessed a turnout in the range 45.1 to 55%
while another in the range of 55.1 to 65%.
d. Estimated Turnout by Types of
Polling Stations: PVT Estimates
In 2013, male polling stations recorded the
highest turnout of 41.5% followed by
combined polling stations with 35.8%.
Female polling stations had significantly
lower estimated turnout of around 28.2%.
Overall turnout estimated for the region was
36.1% compared to the ECP's calculated
37.2% for the ten constituencies. The figures
bring into focus the persistent issue of female
under-participation as well as the need to
tailor the polling scheme to help ensure better
female turnout. Given that the gender
desegregated data of the votes polled is not
available for the combined polling stations,
there is a need to record and examine the best
course for improving female participation.
Figure 3: Distribution of Constituencies by Turnout
and Demographic Categories
Figure 2: Average Turnout by Demographic Category: 2002 to 2013
Figure 1: Votes Polled 2002 to 2013
Figure 4: Estimated Turnout by Types of Polling Stations: PVT Estimates
327,217
397,593
550,560
2002 2008 2013
25.5%
28.2%
31.6%
25.5%
28.2%
31.6%
2002 2008 2013
Predominantly Rural Region's Turnout
4
1
1
35 to 45%
45.1 to 55%
55.1 to 65%
4Less than 35%
Predominantly Rural
41.5%
28.2%
35.8% 36.1% 37.2%
Male ±0.44% Female ±0.64% Combined ±0.27% Overall ±0.22% ECP Overall

FATA
w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 153
Figure 5: Constituencies by Turnout Change and Demographic
Categories: Average of 2002 and 2008 Vs. 2013
Figure 6: Rejected Votes: 2002 to 2013
e. Constituencies by Turnout Change and
Demographic Categories: Average of 2002 and 2008
Vs. 2013
Four constituencies of FATA witnessed 5.1 to 10%
increase in their turnouts in 2013 vis-à-vis their average
turnouts of 2002 and 2008–three witnessed a rise
between 10.1 to 15% and one each saw an
improvement of 15.1 to 20% and 0.1 to 5% in their
turnouts.
In contrast to the general regional and national trend,
NA-42, witnessed a significant decrease of 10.1 to 15%
in its turnout in 2013 vis-à-vis the 2002 and 2008
average turnout of 25%.
A total of 6,211 votes were rejected in the region in
2002 which decreased to 4,528 votes in 2008.
However, with a massive increase of more than 200% in
2013, rejected votes reached 13,694. Rejected votes
accounted for almost 2% of the polled votes in 2002, 1%
in 2008 and nearly 2.5% in 2013.
The potential impact of rejected votes can be ascertained
from the fact that of the ten constituencies of the region
covered in this report, three had lower margin of victory
compared to the number of rejected votes in the 2013
elections.
a. 2013Results
The political parties were not authorized to operate in
FATA prior to the 2013 elections. This explains why
independent candidates remained exclusive claimants
of votes—a trend that has carried over into the 2013
elections. Not surprisingly then, the independent
candidates won from six out of 10 NA seats of the
region. PML-N secured victory from two seats while PTI
and JUI won from one constituency each from within
the remaining NA constituency.
RejectedVotes:2002to2013
PartyTrends
Figure 7: 2013 Results: Seats Won by Parties
Predominantly Rural
6,211
4,528
13,694
2002 2008 2013
1
3
1
(10.1 to
1
0.1 to 5% 10.1 to
15%
15.1 to
20%
4
5.1 to 10%
15%)

FATA
w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 155
Figure 8: Leading Parties by Votes Polled
b. Winners'Status
Independent candidates emerged victorious in six NA constituencies for third consecutive time in 2013 while PML-N took
two seats for the first time. JUI and PTI also won from one NA constituency each in the region for the first time.
c. PartyVotesShare
Independent candidates emerged with 60% share of polled votes in 2013 followed by PTI and JUI as second and third
largest parties claiming almost 10% and 9% votes. Besides, PML-N and JI also took 7% and 6.4% of the polled votes
respectively.
329,850
51,832 48,881 37,475 34,252 34,576
IND PTI JUI PML-N JI Others

156 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g
NA-36 TRIBAL AREA-I, MOHAMAND AGENCY
Jar
Nal
Dab
Had
Kot
Jau
Mena
Siai Mora
Agra
Ulai
Gunu
Kuai
Kung
Vole
Dand
Ugda
ShiniManro
DheriMatta
JowarKuhai
Tangi
Mitai Hangu
Matin
TarasOghuz
Bobak
Serai
Dabar
Khwar
UriyaKawal
DarraJaiba
Serai
Nasir
Kasai Laman
Bucha
Maira
Matin
Malika
Rambat
Kajira
Kharai
Kangra
Retara
SangarJarobi
Khatin
Dargai
Kurina
Baezai
Baezal Ghulam
KawaroMaizar
Naghar
Gandab
Gandao
Zankai
Raghzi
Khatki
Anargai
Targhao Khanori
Mamozai Ghundai
Khanjar
Mohmand
Tarakai
Ramalai
Sappare
Dab KorKarerai
Sar Lara
Uri Mena
Baba Jor
Bedmanai
Aman Kot
Shamshah Mazarina
Khwaezai
Halimzai
Jale Sar
Reg MenaGurgurai
Tarakzai
Kamangara
Balo Mena
Alam Khel
Umar Khel
Atam-Kili
Mahar Dab
Jang Kili
Hasar Nao
Dand NawarSilala Sar
Tazi Kabar
Ogad Manja
Nana Khwar
Sira Tigga Sapari Sar
KarghajalaPrang Dara
Tango Kili
Haidar Khan
Shahdanai Sar
Chombi Kandao
Mamanai Gudar
Ahinpokh Kandao
Ghare Kamar Sar
Haidar Khan Nao
Laman Utman Khel
Tringai Ghakhai Kandao
NA-36
NA - 8
NA - 44
NA - 35
NA - 45
NA - 7
NA - 43
NA - 3
NA - 10
NA - 34
NA - 36
NA - 34
NA - 45
NA - 44
NA - 5
NA - 35
NA - 8
NA - 7
NA - 46
NA - 43
NA - 3
NA - 4
1 inch = 78.91 miles
ituated in FATA, Mohmand Agency is inhabited by the Mohmand,
1
Dawizai, Baizai, Khwazai and Halimzai tribes . The agency is linked
Swith Bajaur Agency to its north, Malakand to its east and Khyber
Agency to its west. Tribal affiliation, clans and extended kinship play
2
a crucial role in determining voting preferences .
Figure 2: Registered Voters by Gender 2008-13
Figure 1: Number of Registered Voters 2002 to 2013
108,081
126,007
179,304
2002 2008 2013
79.7%
66.5%
20.3%
33.5%
2008 2013
Male Voters
Female Voters
Registered Voters: Polling Scheme
Registered Voters: Form-XVII
Valid Votes:
Rejected Votes:
Total Votes Polled:
Turnout:
179,249
179,304
53,617
470
54,087
30.2%
Winner's Status: IND (3rd Consecutive Win)
Overall Rank by Turnout
Turnout Rank in the Region
Change in Turnout: 2013 Vs. Avg. of 2002-08
Rank by Increase in Turnout
262
8
9.4%
182
RegisteredVoters
In 2008, the constituency had 126,007 registered voters -
16.6% more than 108,081 voters registered in 2002. In
2013, the number of registered voters jumped to 179,304,
showing an increase of another 42.3%.
VotersbyGender
Even though both male and female voters increased
between 2008 and 2013, the rise in female voters was
significantly higher. In 2008, the constituency had 79.7%
male and 20.3% female voters. In 2013, the share of male
voters decreased to 66.5%, while female voters accounted
for the remaining 33.5%. Nevertheless, the gender
disparity still remains high, with male voters being twice as
many as female voters.
1
Punjab Lok Sujaag, Kabaili Ilaka Jaat: Taraki Aur Siasat. P.37
2
Ibid

TRIBAL AREA-I, MOHAMAND AGENCY
NA-36
FATA
w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 157
Figure 3: Party Share of Votes in 2013 Elections
Figure 5: Comparative Turnout 2002 to 2013
23.1%
18.5%
30.2%
2002 2008 2013
24,989 23,263
54,087
2002 2008 2013
JI
10.4%
JUI
8.6%
Others
27.7%
PML-N
7.4%
Rejected
Votes
0.9%
IND-1
16.6%
IND-2
8.6%
IND-3
8.3%
IND-4
6.3%IND-5
5.1%
2013ElectionResults
TurnoutAnalysis
The 2013 saw the participation of political parties in the
election for the first time in FATA following the extension
of Political Parties Act to the region. The seat, however, was
won by Bilal Rehman, an independent candidate who
secured 16.6% of the polled votes and defeated 39 other
contestants. JI was the runner-up with 10.4% votes, while
Nisar Ahmad, another independent candidate, stood third
with 8.6% votes. The JUI also received 8.6% votes, while
other contestants received 27.7% of the polled votes
collectively. Only 0.9% votes were rejected.
a. VotesPolled
In 2002, a total of 24,989 votes were polled in the
constituency, which dropped to 23,263 in 2008 despite an
increase in the number of registered voters. In 2013 the
number of polled votes more than doubled to 54,087
outdoing the increase in the number of registered voters.
b. VoterTurnout
A predominantly rural area, NA-36 showed a sharp increase
in voter turnout in 2013. According to the ECP's results, the
constituency saw a turnout of 23.1% in 2002 and 18.5% in
2008 - averaging out at 20.8%. However, with 54,087
votes polled, the turnout increased to 30.2% in 2013 -
11.7% more than the turnout in 2008. This notable increase
in voter turnout may due to a number of factors, such as the
participation of political parties, a subsequent increase in
number of contenders and increase in the number of
registered voters.

158 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g
NA-36
Figure 6: Vote Consolidation/Fragmentation Patterns 2002 to 2013
Figure 7: Comparative Margin of Victory &Rejected Votes 2002 to 2013
65.5%
22.7%
16.6%
15.7%
18.2%
10.4%
6.9%
15.0%
8.6%
2002 2008 2013
Winner Runner-up Third
12,436
1,041
3,353
341
390
470
2002 2008 2013
Margin of Victory Rejected Votes
VotingPattern
The voting pattern shows increasing fragmentation of votes between 2002 and 2013. In 2002, the election was defined by
a single candidate who secured 65.5% of the polled votes while the next two contestants received only 15.7% and 6.9%
respectively. In 2008, however, there was a close competition between several candidates, with the first three candidates
receiving 55.6% of the polled votes collectively. In 2013, the division of votes increased even further, with the top three
contestants receiving only 35.6% of the polled votes. This voting behaviour indicates that the next polls may also witness a
close competition. It also indicates that an alliance between two or more candidates may decrease the division of votes and
influence the results in their favour.
MarginofVictory
In 2002, the winner's margin was considerably higher than the number of rejected votes. In 2008, however, there was a
strong competition between the candidates, resulting in the margin of victory to drop sharply. Nevertheless, the number
of rejected votes was insignificant to affect the results. The 2013 elections showed a clear victory once again, with the
winner securing the seat with a significant margin.

TRIBAL AREA-I, MOHAMAND AGENCY
NA-36
FATA
w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 159
Figure 8: Parallel Vote Tabulation
Election Day Observations at a Glance
7 0
8
Category-A Category-B
Category-C 14Category-D
16.6
10.4
8.6
21.1
17.8
18.6
15.9
13.0
11.6
10.7
8.2
4.5
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0
Bilal
Rehman
JI
Nisar
Ahmad
Categories of Received Form XIV
Figure 11: Comparative Turnout
by Type of Polling Stations
41.5%
17.8%
25.7%
29.4% 30.2%
Male Female Combined PVT
Projected
Turnout ± 0.4%
ECP
Turnout
Figure 9: Distribution of Registered Voters
Figure 10: Distribution of
Polling Station by Type
68,557
35,568
75,153
15,867
9,890
20,454
Male Female Combined
Polling Scheme PVT Sample
43
28
36
11
8 10
Violations
ReportedObservation of Voting Process
Voters with any other form of identification are permitted to vote
Voters who have no ID are permitted to vote
Polling Officer is not checking the back of each voter's thumb for indelible ink
APO is not requiring each voter to put a thumbprint on the NA ballot counterfoil
APO is not putting official stamp and signing on the back of each NA ballot
APO is not filling out each NA ballot counterfoil with the voter's CNIC and details
APO is not putting an official stamp and signing each NA ballot counterfoil
Polling Officials are marking NA ballot papers on behalf of voters
Polling agents/ Candidates are marking NA ballot papers on behalf of voters
Security Officials is marking NA ballot papers on behalf of voters
Other personal is marking NA ballot papers on behalf of voters
Government Officials is trying to influence voters to vote for one candidate/party
Polling Officials are trying to influence voters to vote for one candidate/party
Any people with weapons are in the polling booth
Capture of polling station by one party/candidate
Polling Station closes before 5:00 pm
Polling officials didn’t check the stamp and signature on the back of each NA ballot
Polling officials didn’t count two times the NA ballots in each candidate pile
Polling officials didn’t call out loudly if they find a ballot without stamp/signature
Polling officials didn’t put ballots without a stamp/signature in the Invalid pile
Polling officials did not create one pile for “invalid” NA ballots
Polling officials did not fill out the "NA Ballot Account Form”
Not all polling agents sign the NA "Statement of the Count”
Polling officials did not carefully pack all NA materials in separate envelopes
Presiding Officer did not sign NA "Tamper Evident Bag”
Polling officials did not post copy of "Statement of the Count" outside the PS
Ballot Stuffing, Polling Station Capture and Voter Intimidation
Observation of Counting Process
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
1
3
1
1
2
1
1
0
0
0
2

160 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g
NA-37 TRIBAL AREA-II, KURRAM AGENCY
Kas
Kas
Nari
GidoTeri
Tola
Mela
Turi
Piak
Dhal
AgraZira
Said
Turi
Kotri
Wasai
ZeranRagha
KardaBurki
Bazar
Bassu
Totak ShakhTwaze
Taida
Satin
Sadda
Kuchi
Tangi
Munda
Pingo
Sadin
Ut Sar
Khewas
MaikaiCherai
Mangal Khanai Kanake
Dhandi
Nurkai
Mansur
Bughdi
Sarkot
Muqbil Gidara
Sultan
Kotkai
Alizai
Yakubi
BostanWarsak
Shashi
Mingak
Bagzai
Jalmai
Largin
Tor Sar
Ad Mela
Bughara
Mamuzai
Karshya
Bissatu
Darwaza
Kharpat
Hidu Ut
Maidani
Toi MelaKharwala
Ana Mela
Haqdarra
Tut Pail
Dam Mela
Jabe Mela
Chamkanni
Uchadarra
Sang Ghar
Walli Sar
Nareg Sar
Pore Kanda
Sraghurgai
Katwai Sar
Spin Kanre
Inzar Ghar
Jawara Mela
Swaro Gawai
Makhal Ghar
Charmu Ghar Ghurio Tang
Gwazo Priti
Valay-China
Dargai China
Guluchat SarInzar Kandao
Ublan Tangai
Ghwanda Cheral
AF name unknown
Shah Hussaino Kandao
NA - 38
NA - 46
NA - 39
NA - 16
NA-37
NA - 37
NA - 38
NA - 40
NA - 16
NA - 46
nhabited mostly by the Turi, Bangash, Para Chamkani, Ali Sherzai, Paracha,
Massuzai, Wattizai, Zadran, Ghilzai, Mangal, Kharoti, Hazara and Khushi
Itribes, Kurram Agency links the country with neighbouring
1
Afghanistan . Traditionally, sectarian affiliations have played an
important role in soliciting votes. However, ethnic and tribal
2
affiliations also determine voting preferences .
138,559
141,190
162,660
2002 2008 2013
55.5% 59.1%
44.5% 40.9%
2008 2013
Male Voters
Female Voters
Valid Votes:
Rejected Votes:
Total Votes Polled:
Turnout:
162,621
162,660
91,805
3,255
95,060
58.4%
119
1
12.4%
139
RegisteredVoters
nearly 2% more than the 138,559 voters registered in
2002. In 2013, the registered voters jumped to 162,660,
showing an increase of another 15.2%.
VotersbyGender
Though both male and female voters increased between
2008 and 2013, the increase in male voters was
significantly higher, resulting in a higher gender disparity
in 2013. In 2008, the constituency had 55.5% male and
44.5% female voters. In 2013, the share of male voters
increased to 59.1%, while female voters accounted for the
remaining 40.9% of the registered voters.
1
2
Ibid

TRIBAL AREA-II, KURRAM AGENCY
NA-37
FATA
w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 161
30.3%
61.8% 58.4%
2002 2008 2013
42,032
87,296
95,060
2002 2008 2013
MDM
5.3%
Others
3.1%
Rejected
Votes
3.4%
IND-1
31.2%
IND-2
30.6%
IND-3
20.6%
IND-4
5.8%
2013ElectionResults
TurnoutAnalysis
Out of 31 parties/candidates contesting the polls, Sajid
Hussain Turi, an independent candidate, emerged
victorious with 31.2% of the polled votes. Turi was closely
followed by Syed Qaiser Hussain, another independent
candidate who secured 30.6% votes, while two other
candidates – Syed Iqbal Mian and Haji Hashim Khan –
received 20.6% and 5.8% of the polled votes respectively. In
addition, the MDM received 5.3% votes, followed by other
contenders who collectively received 3.1% votes.
Moreover, another 3.4% of the polled votes were declared
invalid.
a. VotesPolled
Despite a nominal increase in the number of registered
voters, the number of polled votes increased two-fold
between 2002 and 2008. In 2013, however, the increase in
polled votes (9%) was proportionately lower compared to
the increase in registered voters (15.2%).
b. VoterTurnout
in voter turnout between 2002 and 2008. According to the
ECP's result, the constituency saw a turnout of 30.3% in
2002 and 61.8% in 2008, averaging out at 46.1%. In 2013,
however, the turnout decreased slightly to 58.4%.
Nevertheless, it was still higher than the average turnout of
the previous two elections.

162 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g
NA-37
50.1%
30.1% 31.2%
20.5%
23.2%
30.6%
13.9%
23.2% 20.6%
2002 2008 2013
12,451
5,494
526711
206
3,255
2002 2008 2013
VotingPattern
The vote bank in NA-37 has been largely divided between three candidates. In 2002, the polls were dominated by a single
candidate – his share exceeding the combined shares of the first and second runners-up. In 2008, however, the polls were
marked by a strong competition between three candidates who collectively received a share of 77.1% in polled votes. The
2013 election presented a similar pattern. However, the race was primarily between the top two candidates, with the
second runner-up following behind a considerable margin. Nevertheless, the first three contestants managed to secure
83% of the polled voted. The voting pattern indicates that the vote bank is divided among three candidates. In addition, the
close competition in 2008 and 2013 suggests that an alliance between the runners-up can decrease the fragmentation of
votes and drive the results in their favour in the next election.
MarginofVictory
The margin of victory in NA-37 has fallen consistently over time due to fragmentation of votes. In 2002, the winner's
margin was many times higher than the number of rejected votes. The 2008 elections showed similar results. In 2013,
however, the rejected votes increased sharply. At the same time; there was a close competition between the contestants,
resulting in the rejected votes to exceed the winning margin. The notable increase in the number of rejected votes,
combined with the close contest, highlights the need for a transparent result compilation system by the ECP to avoid
controversies which affect the spirit of free and fair elections.

TRIBAL AREA-II, KURRAM AGENCY
NA-37
FATA
w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 163
0 0
0
31.2
30.6
20.6
42.9
41.1
33.2
34.7
32.7
25.0
26.5
24.3
16.8
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0
Sajid
Hussain
Turi
Sayed
Qaisar
Syed
Iqbal
Mian
60.3% 64.5% 71.8% 66.0% 58.4%
Projected
Turnout ± 0.5%
ECP
Turnout
54,680
39,108
68,833
11,399
5,086
12,033
42 42
56
7 6
10
Violations
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

164 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g
NA-39 TRIBAL AREA-IV, ORAKZAI AGENCY
Nur
Garh
TariBaza
Tslo
Tabi
Arkhi
Kandi
Narik
Sarka
Kasha
Talai
Akhel
Inzar
Nakai KatsaJirab
Dukai
MishtiKharki
Mosone
Sortop
Mamanai
Karappa
Ali Khel
Ibrahimo
Ghundakai
Samana Suk
Zako Ghakhai
Lalbaz Gareh
NA - 46
NA-39
NA - 14
NA - 16
NA - 38
NA - 45
NA - 47
NA - 2
NA - 4
NA - 15
NA - 46
NA - 14NA - 16
NA - 39
NA - 38
NA - 45
NA - 47
NA - 4
NA - 47
NA - 36
NA - 37
NA - 37
nhabited mostly by AliKhel,MullahKhel,RohaKhel,Meshki,Shekhan,Feroz
Khel, Isa Khel, Ali Sherzai, Bar Muhamad Khel, Spai and Buland Khel tribes,
INA-39 represents Orakzai Agency – the only agency in FATA
1
which does not share a border with Afghanistan . Administratively,
the agency is divided into Upper Orakzai, Lower Orakzai, Central
2
Orakzai and Ismail Khel tehsils . The constituency is a Sunni
dominated area where the influence of tribal elders plays an
3
important role in determining voting preferences .
97,620
123,335 125,687
2002 2008 2013
71.8%
60.5%
28.2%
39.5%
2008 2013
Male Voters
Female Voters
Valid Votes:
Rejected Votes:
Total Votes Polled:
Turnout:
125,687
125,687
44,662
3,773
48,435
38.5%
250
6
3.9%
248
RegisteredVoters
Like other parts of the region, NA-39 has witnessed a
continuous increase in the number of registered voters over
the years. In 2008, the constituency had 123,335 voters -
26.3% more than the 97,620 voters in 2002. In 2013, the
number of registered voters increased another 1.9% to
125,687.
VotersbyGender
The 2013 elections saw a drop in the number of male
voters. At the same time, the number of female voters
witnessed a considerable increase, resulting in a significant
reduction in the gender gap. In 2008, there were roughly
seven male voters for every three female voters in the
region. In 2013, however, the ratio was approximately six
male voters to every four female voters.
1
2
Ibid
3
Punjab Lok Sujaag, Kabaili Ilaka Jaat: Tarakki Aur Siasat P.42

TRIBAL AREA-IV, ORAKZAI AGENCY
NA-39
FATA
w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 165
29.2%
40.1% 38.5%
2002 2008 2013
28,511
49,507 48,435
2002 2008 2013
ANP
5.6%
JUI
8.6%
Others
12.6%
PPPP
16.0%
PTI
7.9%
Rejected
Votes
7.8%
IND-1
16.4%
IND-2
10.7%IND-3
7.5%
IND-4
7.0%
2013ElectionResults
TurnoutAnalysis
Out of 36 parties/candidates contesting the polls, Syed
Ghazi Gulab Jamal, an independent candidate who had also
won the polls in 2002, emerged victorious with 16.4%
votes. The PPPP followed closely with 16% votes, while
Syed Noor Akbar, another independent candidate,
managed to receive 10.7% of the polled votes. In addition,
the JUI and PTI received 8.6% and 7.9% votes respectively.
Other contenders collectively received 12.6% votes, while
7.8% of the polled votes were declared invalid.
a. VotesPolled
In 2008, the constituency saw a 73.6% increase (from
28,511 to 49,507) in the number of polled votes when the
number of registered voters increased almost 26%. In 2013,
however, the number of polled votes fell by 2.2% (from
49,507 to 48,435) despite a slight increase in the number
of registered voters.
b. VoterTurnout
in the voter turnout between 2002 and 2008. According to
the ECP's result, the constituency saw a turnout of 29.2% in
2002 and 40.1% in 2008 - averaging out at 34.7%. In 2013,
however, the turnout decreased slightly to 38.5%.
Nevertheless, it was 3.8% higher than the average turnout
of 2002 and 2008 election.

166 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g
NA-39
39.2%
44.1%
16.4%
28.1%
16.7%
16.0%
21.9%
11.3% 10.7%
2002 2008 2013
3,180
13,597
196335
381
3,773
2002 2008 2013
VotingPattern
The voting pattern has shown a varying trend, with the vote bank consolidating in 2008 and dividing in 2013. In 2002, the
vote bank was divided among three candidates who collectively secured 89.2% votes with each candidate outnumbering
the other with a considerable margin. In 2008, the polls were defined by a single candidate, whose share exceeded the
combined share of the next two candidates. The 2013 election, however, saw a division of votes between several
parties/candidates. According to the results, the winner secured the seat with only 16.4% of the polled votes in a close
contest. This voting pattern suggests that voters in NA-39 have the tendency to produce unpredictable results. Given the
inconsistent pattern, it is hard to predict how the vote will swing in future elections.
MarginofVictory
The margin of victory has shown a varying trend – increasing sharply in 2008 and falling again in 2013. In 2002, the
winning margin was nearly 10 times higher than the number of rejected votes. The 2008 elections also showed a clear
victory, with rejected votes being only a mere fraction of the winning margin. In 2013, however, the number of rejected
votes increased significantly. At the same time, the winning margin fell sharply due to a fragmented vote bank. As a result,
the number of rejected votes was nearly 20 times higher than the margin of victory. The close nature of results, coupled
with a sudden increase in the number of rejected votes, necessitates the need for a transparent and accountable result
compilation system to foreclose any potential for controversies and rumors which undermine the image of free and fair
elections.

TRIBAL AREA-IV, ORAKZAI AGENCY
NA-39
FATA
w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 167
4 0
13
16.0
16.4
10.7
29.6
28.1
19.9
20.1
17.7
12.4
10.5
7.4
5.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0
PPPP
Syed
Ghazi
Gulab
Jamal
Syed
Noor
Akbar
0.0% 0.0%
37.9% 37.9% 38.5%
Projected
Turnout ± 0.6%
ECP
Turnout
54,680
39,108
68,833
11,399
5,086
12,033
42 42
56
7 6
10
Violations
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
4
0
1
0
6
2
6
3
0
1
1
0
4

168 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g
NA-40 TRIBAL AREA-V, NORTH WAZIRASTAN AGENCY
JimSet
InamZund
DingIlat
Sola
Trai Kama
LagarYagai
Kirra
Danai
Garhi
Lalat
Wazir
Nawal
Larima
Plewan
Tortop
Sirtop
Wuchai
Chakai
Ghwora
Khojai
SarkaiShangi
Ukh Oba
Drenomi
Spinkai
Torghot
Torakai
SpirkaiKagheba
Melogai
Mir Ali
Nawidand
Dreplare
Bangidar
Sur Narai
Khandizai
Shna Lara
Shekhalai
Tori Khel
Shanderai
Stara Zawa
Gora Kachay
Shezak Algad
Margha Narai
Gora Tsappara
Kharaghora Range
Pereval Besharay-Naray
NA-40
NA - 27
NA - 42
NA - 26
NA - 47
NA - 47
NA - 41
NA - 25
NA - 38
NA - 16
NA - 15
NA - 40
NA - 41 NA - 25
NA - 27
NA - 42
NA - 38
NA - 47
NA - 37
NA - 26
NA - 16
NA - 47
NA - 264
ome to the Dawar and Wazir tribes, North Waziristan Agency
is situated adjacent to South Waziristan, Hangu and
HAfghanistan. The area is also inhabited by Mehsud, Suleman Khel
and Barqi tribes, with a majority of population belonging to the Sunni
community. Religious political parties especially JUI have electoral
support in the area.
96,448
126,481
160,666
2002 2008 2013
85.4% 92.7%
14.6%
7.3%
2008 2013
Male Voters
Female Voters
Valid Votes:
Rejected Votes:
Total Votes Polled:
Turnout:
160,666
160,666
77,132
938
78,070
48.6%
213
2
19.7%
27
RegisteredVoters
31.1% more than the 96,448 voters in 2002. In 2013, the
number of registered voters jumped to 160,666, showing
an increase of another 27%.
VotersbyGender
North Waziristan Agency has shown a stark gender gap in
registered voters. In 2008, the constituency had 85.4%
male and only 14.6% female voters – showing a difference
of 70.8%. In 2013, the proportion of female voters
decreased even further. According to the polling scheme,
male voters accounted for 92.7% of the voters, while
female voters made up the remaining 7.3% - nearly half of
what they accounted for in 2008.
1
2
Ibid
3

TRIBAL AREA-V, NORTH WAZIRASTAN AGENCY
NA-40
FATA
w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 169
30.0% 27.9%
48.6%
2002 2008 2013
28,889
35,229
78,070
2002 2008 2013
JUI
15.7%
Others
18.8%
PTI
10.6%
Rejected
Votes
1.2%IND-1
23.1%
IND-2
18.9%IND-3
6.2%IND-4
5.4%
2013ElectionResults
TurnoutAnalysis
Out of 34 parties/candidates contesting the polls,
Muhammad Nazir Khan, an independent candidate, won
the seat with 23.1% of the polled votes. Aurangzeb Khan,
another independent candidate, was the runner-up with
18.9% votes, while JUI followed with 15.7% votes. In
addition PTI managed to receive 10.6% votes. Other
candidates collectively received a share of 18.8%, while
1.2% of the polled votes were rejected.
a. VotesPolled
Along with the number of registered voters, the polled
votes in NA-40 have increased constantly over the years. In
2008, the constituency saw a 22% increase (from 28,889 to
35,229) when the number of registered voters increased by
31%. In 2013, the number of polled votes jumped two-
fold (from 35,229 to 78,070) against a 27% increase in the
number of registered voters.
b. VoterTurnout
A predominantly rural area, NA-40 witnessed a significant
increase in voter turnout in 2013. According to the ECP's
results, the constituency saw a turnout of 30% in 2002 and
27.9% in 2008 - averaging out at 28.9%. However, with
78,070 votes polled, the turnout increased to 48.6% in
2013 – 20.7% more than the turnout in 2008.

170 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g
NA-40
51.1%
16.7%
23.1%
18.9% 15.4% 18.9%
8.8%
14.8%
15.7%
2002 2008 2013
9,309
453
3,261
289
591 938
2002 2008 2013
VotingPattern
The voting pattern shows a shift from a single candidate's dominance to a division of votes between various contestants. In
2002, the winner secured the seat with an overwhelming majority, outnumbering the collective votes of the next two
contestants with a significant margin. In 2008, however, the constituency witnessed a split in the vote bank. The results
showed a sharp decline in the winner's share that resulted in a close competition between three candidates and the winner
securing the seat with a margin of only 1.3% votes. The 2013 elections showed a similar pattern. However, the race wasn't
as close as 2008. Nevertheless, the shift in voting behaviour shows a fragmentation of the vote bank. The close contest in
2008 and 2013 also suggests that an alliance between two or more contenders can decrease the fragmentation of votes and
influence the results in the next election.
MarginofVictory
While the number of rejected votes has increased steadily, the margin of victory has varied – falling sharply in 2008 and
increasing again in 2013. In 2002, the seat was won with a significant margin, with the number of rejected votes being a
mere fraction of the winning margin. In 2008, there was a close competition between the top two candidates, resulting in
the number of rejected votes to outnumber the winning margin. The margin of victory increased once again in 2013 –
showing a considerable difference with the number of rejected votes.

TRIBAL AREA-V, NORTH WAZIRASTAN AGENCY
NA-40
FATA
w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 171
0 0
0
23.1
18.9
15.7
32.5
27.2
12.9
19.4
17.4
9.5
6.3
7.6
6.1
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0
Nazir
Khan
Aurangzeb
Khan
JUI
48.0%
0.0%
40.0% 42.8% 48.6%
Projected
Turnout ± 0.4%
ECP
Turnout
68,516
7,965
84,275
15,314
-
28,190
27
3
35
6
0
12
Violations
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

172 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g
NA-41 TRIBAL AREA-VI, SOUTH WAZIRASTAN AGENCY
Zao
Drazanda
Karira Narai
Karkana Algad
Khoranne Nala
Spin Tangi Narai
NA-41
NA - 25
NA - 42
NA - 264
NA - 47
NA - 40
NA - 47
NA - 264
NA - 25
NA - 41
NA - 40
NA - 42
NA - 47
NA - 47
NA - 263
ordering Zhob, DI Khan, North Waziristan and Afghanistan,
NA-41 is a strategically important constituency due to its
1
Bgeographic location . The majority of the population belongs
2
to the Mehsud, Wazir, Suleman Khel and Dotani tribes . While JUI is
considered the most influential political party, the Maliks (local tribal
3
chiefs) are also believed to be an important political force in the area .
86,598
94,077
92,719
2002 2008 2013
68.2% 70.8%
31.8% 29.2%
2008 2013
Male Voters
Female Voters
Valid Votes:
Rejected Votes:
Total Votes Polled:
Turnout:
92,713
92,719
37,461
706
38,167
41.2%
Winner's Status: PML-N (1st Win)
242
3
8.6%
193
RegisteredVoters
Unlike other parts of the tribal areas, NA-41 witnessed a
slight decrease in the number of registered voters in 2013.
In 2008, the constituency had a total of 94,077 registered
voters - 8.6% more than the 86,598 voters in 2002. In
2013, however, the number of registered voters dropped to
92,719, showing a decrease of 1.9%.
VotersbyGender
The 2013 elections saw a slight increase in the number of
male voters. At the same time, female voters decreased in
comparative terms, resulting in a wider gender gap
compared to the previous polls. In 2008, the constituency
had 68.2% male and 31.8% female voters. In 2013, the
share of male voters increased to 70.8%, while female
voters accounted for the remaining 29.2% of the registered
voters.
1
2
Ibid
3
Punjab Lok Sujaag, Kabaili Ilaka Jaat: Taraki Aur Siasat. Pp.46-47

TRIBAL AREA-VI, SOUTH WAZIRASTAN AGENCY
NA-41
FATA
w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 173
31.2%
34.0%
41.2%
2002 2008 2013
27,032 31,979
38,167
2002 2008 2013
JUI
8.0%
Others
13.0%
PML-N
21.0%
Rejected
Votes
1.8%IND-1
20.0%
IND-2
18.2%
IND-3
17.9%
2013ElectionResults
TurnoutAnalysis
Out of 38 parties/candidates contesting the polls, PML-N
won the seat with 21% of the polled votes, making it one of
the four constituencies in FATA where independent
candidates were defeated. Muhammad Ali, an independent
candidate, was the runner-up with 20% votes, while
Naseerullah Khan, another independent candidate,
followed with 18.2% votes. In addition, independent
candidate Jumma Khan received 17.9% votes and JUI
managed to get 8% votes. Other contenders collectively
received a share of 13%, while 1.8% of the polled votes
were rejected.
a. VotesPolled
The number of polled votes in NA-41 has increased
progressively between 2002 and 2013. In 2008, the
constituency saw a 18.3% increase (from 27,032 to
31,979) when the number of registered voters increased by
8.6%. In 2013, the number of polled votes jumped another
19.4% (from 31,979 to 38,167) despite a 2% decrease in
registered voters.
b. VoterTurnout
A predominantly rural area, NA-41 has shown a continuous
increase in voter turnout since 2002. According to the ECP's
results, the constituency witnessed a voter turnout of 31.2%
in 2002 and 34% in 2008 - averaging out at 32.6%. With
38,167 votes polled, the turnout increased further to 41.2%
in 2013 - 7.2% more than the turnout in 2008.

174 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g
NA-41
29.6%
24.9%
21.0%
25.5% 24.8%
20.0%
9.1%
22.9%
18.2%
2002 2008 2013
1,101
36
381
844
592 706
2002 2008 2013
VotingPattern
The voting pattern shows a shift from a two-party race to a division of votes between various candidates. In 2002, the vote
bank was largely divided between two candidates who received a collective share of 55.1% in polled votes. In 2008,
however, the constituency saw a division of votes, resulting in a close contest between three candidates who collectively
received 72.6% votes. The 2013 elections presented a similar voting pattern, with the top three candidates receiving 59.2%
of the polled votes. However, the decrease in their collective share points out that the vote bank in 2013 was divided
between more than three candidates. The increasing fragmentation of votes suggests that the next election may witness an
even stronger competition between the contestants. Moreover, the close contests indicate that an alliance between any two
candidates can drive the results in their favour.
MarginofVictory
In 2002, the winner secured the seat with a margin of 1,101 voters as 844 votes were rejected. In 2008, however, there
was a close contest, with only 36 votes separating the winner from the runner-up. The rejected votes, on the other hand,
were 16 times higher than the winning margin. The 2013 elections also showed similar results, with the number of
rejected votes being significantly higher than the winning margin. The close competition between candidates necessitates
the need for a transparent and accountable result compilation system to avoid controversies which tarnish the image of a
free and fair election.

TRIBAL AREA-VI, SOUTH WAZIRASTAN AGENCY
NA-41
FATA
w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 175
0 1
5
21.0
20.0
18.2
31.1
28.8
20.8
22.6
21.4
15.5
14.0
14.0
10.2
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0
PML-N
Muhammad
Ali
Naseerullah
Khan
12.7%
0.0%
46.8%
38.7% 41.2%
Projected
Turnout ± 0.4%
ECP
Turnout
12,704
7,280
72,729
9,016
-
29,055
6 4
60
4
0
22
Violations
3
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
2
2
2
9
7
1
0
3
2
6
4
1
3
0
1
10

176 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g
NA-42 TRIBAL AREA-VII, SOUTH WAZIRASTAN AGENCY
Swo Ghar
Tabai Sar
Tabai Algad
Wazirki Sar
Metari Narai
Gaddo Melo Algad
Stara Nazhmerai Algad
NA-42
NA - 41
NA - 25
NA - 47
NA - 40
NA - 26
NA - 27
NA - 40
NA - 41
NA - 25
NA - 264
NA - 42NA - 47
NA - 26
NA - 24
NA - 47
NA - 47
1 inch = 94.7 miles
ome to the Mehsuds, Burki and Qureshi tribes, NA-42 comprises
Ladha, Makin, Sararogha and Sarwakai tehsils of South
HWaziristan Agency. In addition to religious affiliations, tribal
and ethnic linkages also define the voting preferences of the local
1
population .
122,373 129,961
108,056
2002 2008 2013
64.7% 63.6%
35.3% 36.4%
2008 2013
Male Voters
Female Voters
Valid Votes:
Rejected Votes:
Total Votes Polled:
Turnout:
119,094
108,056
12,649
208
12,857
11.9%
Winner's Status: JUI (1st Win)
266
10
-13.6%
264
RegisteredVoters
A total of 129,961 voters were registered in the
constituency in 2008 - 6.2% more than 122,373 voters in
2002. The number of registered voters witnessed a decrease
of 16.9% to 108,056 in 2013.
VotersbyGender
In 2008, 64.7% of the registered voters were male while
35.3% were female. Despite a significant decrease in
registered voters, the proportion of male and female voters
remained largely unaffected; with male voters accounting
for 63.6% of the total voters in 2013 and female voters
making up the remaining 36.4%.
1

TRIBAL AREA-VII, SOUTH WAZIRASTAN AGENCY
NA-42
FATA
w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 177
25.5%
0.0%
11.9%
2002 2008 2013
31,166
-
12,857
2002 2008 2013
JUI
27.0%
Others
11.9%
PTI
19.1%
Rejected
Votes
1.6%
IND-1
23.8%
IND-2
16.6%
2013ElectionResults
TurnoutAnalysis
Out of 17 parties/candidates contesting the polls, JUI
emerged victorious with a share of 27% in polled votes.
Independent candidate Qayyum Sher Mehsud received
23.8% of the polled votes, followed by PTI with 19.1%
votes. Abdur Rahim Khan, another independent candidate,
managed to get 16.6% votes. The remaining 11.9% votes
went to other candidates while election officials rejected
1.6% votes were rejected.
a. VotesPolled
In 2002, as many as 31,166 voters exercised their right to
vote in NA-42. The elections were postponed in 2008,
while only 12,857 voters came out to vote in 2013.
b. VoterTurnout
The voter turnout decreased from 25.5% in 2002 to 11.9%
in 2013. The polls in 2008 were postponed due to law and
order situation in the constituency.
TheelectionswerepostponedinNA-42in2008duetolawandordersituation

178 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g
NA-42
7,333
-
402
694 -
208
2002 2008 2013
VotingPattern
Like other parts of the region, the voting pattern in NA-42 shows a fragmentation of votes over the years. In 2002, the
winner secured nearly 40% of the polled votes, while the next two candidates followed with 16.1% and 14.1%
respectively. In 2013, however, the constituency witnessed a close contest, with the winner's share falling sharply to 27%
and the shares of runners-up increasing to 23.8% and 19.1% respectively. The results show that the difference in the
winner and runner-up's shares decreased from 23.6% in 2002 to only 3.2% in 2013. This shows a significant division of
votes, indicating that the next polls may witness a similar voting pattern.
MarginofVictory
The margin of victory in 2002 was significantly higher than the number of rejected votes. The winning margin fell sharply
in 2013. Nevertheless, the rejected votes were insignificant to affect the results.
39.7%
27.0%
16.1%
23.8%
14.1%
19.1%
2002 2013

TRIBAL AREA-VII, SOUTH WAZIRASTAN AGENCY
NA-42
FATA
w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 179
27.0
23.8
16.6
31.9
31.5
24.4
26.9
25.5
19.0
21.9
19.5
13.6
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0
JUI
Qayyum
Sher
Mahsud
Abdur
Rahim
Khan
0 4
3
15.2%
4.0%
23.0%
12.6% 11.9%
Projected
Turnout ± 0.3%
ECP
Turnout
PVT
31
18
13
19
7 6
64,666
36,579
6,811
38,451
14,120
2,239
Violations
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
4
2
1
4
3
0
0
0
0
6

180 I w w w . f a f e n . o r g
NA-43 TRIBAL AREA-VIII, BAJOUR AGENCY
Gat
Wur
Dag
Rai
Kaga
KatsMena
AdaiAgra
Zari Irab
Kama
Soba
Niag
Nawa
MukhaMamun
Zagai
Gilai
Dabar
Kalan
Gudar
Kuhai
Banda
Garho
Sarkai
Krewon
Kitkot
Tarkho
Bakaro
Gwatai
Hashim
TanraiTangai
Anderi
Surgai
Kotkai
Chinar
Asghar Tanbar
Malika
Gabarai
Kakazai
Chingai
Badalai
Ghakhai
Lughrai
Nakhtar
Garigal
Ghundai
Nawagai
Dabbarai
Bandarai
Awi Shah
Damadola
Khararai
Tarkanri
Dherakai
Salarzai
Manrugai
Zargarai
Tiki Nao
Tsapparai
Shah Karo
Hazar Nao
Mujahidin
Miz Darra
Raja Banda
Bari Qadam
Mianz Qila
Kharkai Nao
Dozakh Shah
Sata Ziarat
Shahi Tangai
Ghakhai Pass
Haji Gul Baba
Bar Chamarkand
Sulaiman Khela
Kamangara Khwar
Kharai Kamangara
Ghilja Kamangara
NA-43 NA - 44
NA - 36
NA - 34
NA - 36
NA - 44NA - 43
NA - 34
NA - 33
NA - 35
ordering Dir and Malakand districts and Afghanistan's Kunar
province, Bajaur is the smallest agency in the tribal areas in
Bterms of geographical size and largest in terms of population.
The major tribes include Tarkani, Utman Khel and Salarzai. The Tarkani
1
tribe is considered the most influential tribe politically in the region .
114,139 119,088
168,514
2002 2008 2013
63.2% 61.0%
36.8% 39.0%
2008 2013
Male Voters
Female Voters
Valid Votes:
Rejected Votes:
Total Votes Polled:
Turnout:
168,514
168,514
42,901
1,378
44,279
26.3%
263
9
7.9%
203
RegisteredVoters
A total of 119,088 voters were registered in the
constituency in 2008 - 4.3% more than 114,139 voters
registered in 2002. In 2013, the constituency saw a 41.5%
increase in the number of registered voters which jumped
to 168,514.
VotersbyGender
Though both male and female voters increased in 2013, the
rise in female voters was proportionately higher. As a result,
the ratio between male and female voters saw an
improvement in 2013. In 2008, 63.2% of the registered
voters were male while 36.8% were female. In 2013, the
share of male votes decreased to 61%, while female voters
accounted for the remaining 39% of the registered voters.
1
Punjab Lok Sujaag, Kabaili Ilaka Jaat: Taraki Aur Siasat. Pp. 48-49

TRIBAL AREA-VIII, BAJOUR AGENCY
NA-43
FATA
w w w . f a f e n . o r g I 181
24.0%
12.8%
26.3%
2002 2008 2013
27,373
15,302
44,279
2002 2008 2013
IND
31.5%
JI
22.6% JUI
8.2%
Others
18.9%
PTI
15.7%
Rejected
Votes
3.1%
2013ElectionResults
TurnoutAnalysis
Out of 16 parties/candidates contesting the polls,
independent candidate Bismillah Khan won the seat with a
share of 31.5% in polled votes. He was followed by JI which
secured 22.6% votes, while PTI managed to get nearly 16%
of the polled votes. The JUI candidate received 8.2% votes,
while the remaining candidate collectively secured a share
of almost 19%. Moreover, 3.1% of the total votes were
declared invalid.
a. VotesPolled
The number of polled votes has varied over the years –
decreasing in 2008 and increasing sharply in 2013. In
2008, the constituency witnessed a 44.1% decrease in the
number of polled votes, which went down from 27,373 in
2002 to 15,302 when registered voters increased by 4.3%.
However, the number of polled votes went up nearly three
times to 44,279 in 2013 against a 41.5% increase in
registered voters.
b. VoterTurnout
A predominantly rural area, NA-43 has shown a varying
trend in voter turnout in the last three general elections.
According to the ECP's results, the turnout went down from
24% in 2002 to only 12.8% in 2008. With 44,279 votes
polled, the turnout increased once again to 26.3% in 2013 –
showing a 13.5% increase compared to the previous
election.

Analysis of 2013 FATA General Election Results (FAFEN report, January 2014)

Analysis of 2013 FATA General Election Results (FAFEN report, January 2014)

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Analysis of 2013 FATA General Election Results (FAFEN report, January 2014)