1. Hurricane Hazards and
Outlook for 2012
Dan Reilly
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather
Service, Houston/Galveston

2. Outline
• Hurricane hazards (storm
surge, high winds, flooding
rains, tornadoes)
• Past hurricane seasons (what is
typical)
• 2012 Atlantic hurricane outlook

3. Tropical Cyclone Classifications
◆ Tropical Depression: Max
Sustained Winds less than 39
mph
◆ Tropical Storm: Max Sustained
Winds 39-73 mph
◆ Hurricane: Max Sustained
Winds 74 mph or greater

4. Hurricane Ike View from Radar
Eye Wall
Spiral
Bands

5. Hurricane Hazards
Storm Surge Tornadoes
Damaging Winds Flooding

7. Early rise trapped some on
Bolivar, Galveston Island
Lesson learned: don’t wait too
long to leave surge
zones, especially barrier
islands; Need to account for the
forerunner

8. Hurricane Ike: Bolivar Peninsula
Devastation
Image courtesy of www.hawkeyemedia.com/bolivar/

9. To Evaluate Your
Risk, Need to Know
Your Elevation!
What About Fort Bend County?

10. Know Your Elevation to
Determine Risk for
Surge
Elevation around Fort Bend
County 70 to 120 feet

11. HURRICANE WINDS

12. Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Category 1-min. Sustained Winds Storm Examples Wind Impacts
(mph)
Tropical Less than 39 mph Relatively minor
Depression
Tropical Between 39 and 73 Allison Can be significant
Storm
1 74 - 95 Jerry 1989 Very dangerous; will produce
Claudette 2003 some damage
Humberto 2007
2 96 - 110 Georges 1998 Extremely dangerous; will
Ike 2008 produce extensive damage
3 111 - 129 Alicia 1983 Devastating damage
Katrina 2005
Rita 2005
4 130 - 156 1900 - Galveston Catastrophic damage
Carla 1961
5 157 or greater Andrew 1992 Catastrophic damage
Camille 1969

13. Large Cat 2 high surge and Small Cat 4 modest surge near eyewall only;
moderate wind impact over large area extreme wind impact near eyewall;
Ike, 2008 Charlie, 2004

15. Cat 1 Damage in Houston
Typical damage with Ike around Houston: downed or snapped Trees, some
roof damage

16. 2004 Hurricane Charley – SW
Florida
CAT 4 Wind in
Purple

18. Flooding from Rainfall From
Tropical Cyclones
Greens Bayou, Home Owned Estates – June 10, 2001

20. Tropical Storm Allison
June 2001 Looped Over SE
Texas; 36.99 inches of rain Port of
Houston

23. Some Notable Flood-Producing Storms
FEMA Hurricane Readiness Coastal Communities 3-71

24. From Ashley and Ashley, 2008;
50 years of data across the U.S.
5/11/2012 Weather.gov/houston 24

25. Hurricane Threats: Tornadoes
Hurricane Carla (1961)
 Tornadic storms are
embedded in rain bands
generally in the northeast
quadrant of the storm
 Tornadoes can also form
within the eyewall (less
common)
5 Killed by F3 tornado in Galveston

27. Hurricane Outlook for 2012
• Year to Year Variability in the Atlantic
• What is an “active” year? Was 2011
active?
• What can we expect for 2012?
– Typically based on El Nino/La Nina cycle,
Atlantic SSTs and MDO

28. Note Multi-year Variability in Atlantic
Activity

29. Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2011
Forecast Group Number of Number of Number of ACE
Named Storms Hurricanes Major
Hurricanes
Long-Term 12 6.5 2 92
Average
National Weather 15 8 4.5
Service
Colorado State 16 9 5 160
Penn State 16
Florida State 19 9 163
Cuba Institute 13 7
Impact Weather 14 8 4
Accuweather 15 8 3
Actual 19 7 4

30. 19 Named Storms, 7 Hurricanes, 4 Major Hurricanes

31. Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2012
Forecast Group Number of Number of Number of ACE
Named Storms Hurricanes Major
Hurricanes
Long-Term 12 6.5 2 92
Average (1981-
2010)
National Weather
Service
Colorado State 10 4 2 70
WSI 11 6 2
Penn State
Florida State
Cuba Institute 10 5
Impact Weather
Accuweather
Actual

32. 1983, VERY Quiet Season (or was it?)
Very low number of storms, but one
with major impact on SE Texas
Least active season 1983 (4 named storms!
No El Nino or La Nina (neutral)

33. Tropical Cyclone Preparation

34. www.hurricanes.gov (National Hurricane Center Web Site)

35. National Weather Service Web Sites
weather.gov, weather.gov/houston
• Graphical and text forecasts
• Recorded briefings
• Hurricane audio and video briefings if a
storm is approaching
• Facebook page (Like us!)
Also check out your Office of Emergency
Management pages, Social Media for
weather info and alerts!

36. • Make a plan
• If I choose to
evacuate
• Build a kit
• Non-perishable food
items
• Water
• Medicines
• Battery powered
radio
• Can opener
• Keep tank full
• Have cash on hand
More Preparedness Info at:
http://www.ready.gov
Hurricanes.gov/prepare
http://www.fbcoem.org/

37. Questions?
• Dan.Reilly@noaa.gov