Presentation for the European Pharma Competitive Intelligence conference, Zurich, March 21-22, in association with ISIS Global consultancy. - Overview of major trends affecting the pharma industry; - How to use a megatrend exercise as basis for strategic innovation and competitive benchmarking

1. How megatrends are affecting the pharma
industry, and how the CI function can use
megatrends to increase its strategic relevance
Frederic De Meyer
Senior CI Investigator
I.S.I.S. – Integrated Strategic Information Services, Inc. – www.isisglobal.com
Office Switzerland: +41.41.455.2522
www.isisglobal.com

2. Aim of this presentation
 Raising awareness of the multitude of trends
affecting the pharma business, either directly or
indirectly
 Learn how to use these insights to increase the CI
function to the highest strategic level within your
company
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3. let’s start with a challenge:
what do these have in common?
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4. here’s a hint…
In 2002 Barbie lost its Until 2006 Coca Cola
Ford almost got out of market predominance was boycotted GM’s Hummer saw
business in the early to a new competitor multiple times in India sales drop 85% from
1900’s for sticking to it who just entered this due to its water 2006 to 2009
standardized products market the year mismanagement
before practices
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5. sometimes long-term shifts can
have short-term consequences!
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6. before we start… what are megatrends
exactly?
one hurricane is not a trend, it’s an event...
an increasing number of hurricanes in the US
is a trend, not necessarily a megatrend
a worldwide increase in number and intensity of
hurricanes would be a megatrend
and the consequences might trigger new
(mega)trends
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7. Outline
• …a brain teaser as a starter
• Long-term trends affecting the pharma industry in
the coming decade
• The most obvious ones…
• Trends currently forming, outcome uncertain
• Some speculation…
• How to use these insights to increase the strategic
relevancy of the CI function in your company
• Setting up a megatrend exercise within your company
• Using megatrends to assess your competitive positioning
for the long run
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8. we currently track +40 megatrends closely
DEMOGRAPHIC TECHNOLOGY GEOPOLITICS
• aging population • ubiquitous computing • power shift to East
• increasing world population • disintermediation • globalization 3.0
• genY/Milennials • crowdsourcing • trade blocs and unions
• urbanization/geographic • social Media • rising middle class
mobility • augmented Reality • the Market State
• multi-ethnic society • SaaS, DIY
• gap rich-poor • cloud Computing
• 3D SUSTAINABILITY
• enhanced humans • global warming
• scarcity of resources
BUSINESS TRENDS • energy dependency
• biodiversity
• shared value (CSR) • green technologies
• social Entrepreneurship
SOCIETY
• social Business • dematerialization
• open source/ innovation (digitization) CONSUMER
• decentralization • talent shortage • mass customization
• gamification • boundary blurring • radical transparency
• virtualization • have’s and have not’s (digital • social buying
• disruptive business models divide) • sustainable/ethical buying
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9. …but not all of them are relevant for pharma
Trends with an obvious Early signs of times to Somewhat more
impact come? speculative…
• aging population • informed patients • market State
• climate change • customization • enhanced humans (GRIN,
• global mobility • open source pharma genetic engineering,
• new migration patterns • DIY health bioprinting, …)
• urbanization • shared value
• health ‘as a service’
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10. …let’s start with the ones that we can clearly see, but
from which the full extent is yet unknown
Trends with an obvious Early signs of times to Somewhat more
impact come? speculative…
• Aging population • informed patients • Market State
• Climate change • customization • Enhanced humans
• Global mobility • open source pharma
• new migration patterns • DIY health
• urbanization • shared value
• health ‘as a service’
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11. the patient has limitless ways to be as
knowledgeable as the doctor
Do you have a direct touch with the ultimate patient?
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12. (mass) Customization is the new paradigm
Is this potentially a new source of revenue?
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13. Open source pharma challenges the current
business R&D model
Should you embrace or fight this new model?
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14. Shared value and social entrepreneurship can
unleash new innovations
Dynamics of changes vs social environment
Social
Core Entrepreneurs
product Threat area
Social Innovation
Comply
Corporate
peripheral (legislation,
foundations
standards, …)
Imposed by Own
community initiative
(Frederic De Meyer)
How to combine profitability with social responsibility?
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15. New market for DIY health
(9000 Apple apps for personal health care)
is the doctor still your ‘route to market’?
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16. The underlying transformation for Health Care
providers
institutions
TRUST
reactive pro-active
ATTITUDE
community
(based on a chart from Across consultancy)
How do you redefine your position in this new
paradigm?
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17. …some speculative trends and their
consequences for pharma
Trends with an obvious Early signs of times to Somewhat more
impact come? speculative…
• Aging population • Informed patients • Market State
• Climate change • Customization • Enhanced humans
• Global mobility • Open source pharma
• new migration patterns • DIY health
• urbanization • Shared value
• Health ‘as a service’
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18. The market state, an imperative or a delusion?
Will government become your key partner in the future?
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19. Human enhancement as an alternative to
medicine?
Who will be your key partners in the future (technology,
insurers, …)?
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20. Are these trends applicable to Europe?
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21. Outline
• …a brain teaser as a starter
• Long-term trends affecting the pharma industry in
the coming decade
• The most obvious ones…
• Trends currently forming, outcome uncertain
• Some speculation…
• How to use these insights to increase the strategic
relevancy of the CI function in your company
• Setting up a megatrend exercise within your company
• Using megatrends to assess your competitive positioning
for the long run
www.isisglobal.com

22. Where tomorrow’s pharma innovation will
come from
• Aging population
• Global warming • New ‘go-to-market’
• Urbanization • New markets
• New migration • New customers
• New partners
• DIY Health • New channels
• Informed patients • New ways of
• Open sourcing influencing patients
• Shared value • New vision/mission
• Customization • New organization
• Health ‘as a service’ • New business model
• More efficient R&D
• Market State
• Enhanced humans • More successful future
Do you take the lead or do you wait for disruptive
models to emerge?
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23. how the CI function could use megatrends
assessment to increase its impact on
business strategy
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24. here’s a simple process to assess the impact of
megatrends on your company:
#1 identify Mega trends
Megatrends to discuss
#2 discuss Megatrends
internally
#3draw conclusions
and recommendations
#4 Communicate results
internally and externally

25. but the devil is in the detail…
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26. guidelines for selecting trends to assess in your company
Mega trends
• don’t select (exclusively) trends with
an obvious impact on your industry
or company… the most successful
ideas for innovation will come from
elsewhere;
• get your ideas and selection from a
combination of internal (survey) and
external (consultants) input;
• generate 50 ideas for megatrends,
select 20 to discuss.

27. guidelines for discussing trends in your company
• Invite people with different
background, functions and seniority
• follow a discussion template -for
instance Osterwalder’s business
model canvas:
• 5-6 persons per theme, 30-60 min. per
trend;
• also look at anti-trends;
• keep it fun !

28. guidelines for drawing conclusions from the trends
discussions
• segment the trends so as to show
which ones need action or close
monitoring
• map the way megatrends impact your
customer segments and stakeholders

29. guidelines for communicating the conclusions of the
megatrends exercise
• Set up different documents dependent
on target group and aim:

30. Outline
• …a brain teaser as a starter
• Long-term trends affecting the pharma industry in
the coming decade
• The most obvious ones…
• Trends currently forming, outcome uncertain
• Some speculation…
• How to use these insights to increase the strategic
relevancy of the CI function in your company
• Setting up a megatrend exercise within your company
• Using megatrends to assess your competitive positioning
for the long run
www.isisglobal.com

31. How to assess your long-term competitiveness
and short-term actions needed
1. List of 25 metrics that
indicate long-term
competitiveness (industry
dependent)
2. Weigh the topic in terms
of importance/relevance to
the industry
3. Do a neutral benchmark
(1-5 scores) based on public
sources and info
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32. How to assess your long-term competitiveness
and short-term actions needed (cont.)
Future readiness benchmark company <YOU>
4. Draw conclusions, set
Demographics
recommendations
Strategy Sustainability
YOU
In this case:
Top overall 1. Preparedness for
performer geopolitical trends is
New Business Average of 6 currently your key
Consumers
models companies competitive differentiator.
This needs to be kept!
Geopolitics
2. Top performer overall has
introduced key disruptive
business model and
customer innovation. You
need to study which of these
you can leverage profitably
for your business
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33. Overall conclusion
• Investigating long-term trends has short-term relevance:
» Ideas for innovation
» Find competitive differentiators
» Refine strategy for future success
• There is an easy, structured way to get the maximum
value out of a megatrend exercise;
• By taking the lead of this exercise, the CI function would
elevate its relevance in the strategic direction of the
company.
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34. The future can not be predicted…
but it can be made !
(ancient African saying)
prepare your business now, and make sure CI has
the leading role in it!
Frederic De Meyer, Senior CI Investigator, I.S.I.S.- frederic@isisglobal.com
Marc Limacher, Managing Director, I.S.I.S. – marc@isisglobal.com
Europe (Switzerland): +41.41.455.2522 U.S.: +1.650.298.8555
www.isisglobal.com
Lucerne – San Francisco – Princeton (NJ) – Shanghai – Bangalore – Miami
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