Lecture for post-graduate students Trendwatching, HoGent

1. Using long-term trend assessment
in business strategy
@fdemeyer
frederic@i4fi.com
fredericdemeyer.com
Instituteforfutureinsights
fdemeyer

2. I admit, I am a futurist…
But what does it mean?

4. "Airplanes are interesting toys but of no
military value."
Marshal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole
Superieure de Guerre
“I think there is a world market for maybe
five computers”
Thomas Watson (IBM) 1943
“640k ought to be enough for anybody”
Bill Gates, 1981
…Seeing beyond the paradigm
is extremely difficult, but not
impossible…

5. Ways to assess the future

6. Sophistication
Accuracy
Ways to assess the future
Frederic
De
Meyer
@
i4fi
GUT
FEEL

7. …just by walking around…

8. …is this an indication of a trend
towards URBAN FARMING?

9. Sophistication
Accuracy
Ways to spot long-term
trends
Frederic
De
Meyer
@
i4fi
GUT
FEEL

10. …mass customization is
spreading to many consumer
products…

11. …what if it would apply to other
industries?
Health Care Retail
Education Energy

12. Sophistication
Accuracy
Ways to spot long-term
trends
Frederic
De
Meyer
@
i4fi
GUT
FEEL

13. BanksMusicPress
…what do we see?

14. BanksMusicPress
…we are witnessing a growing
trend to desintermediation…

15. Sophistication
Accuracy
Ways to spot long-term
trends
Frederic
De
Meyer
@
i4fi
GUT
FEEL

16. Pa5ents
now
have
limitless
ways
to
be
as
knowledgeable
as
the
doctor
(mass)
Customiza5on
of
health
care
becomes
the
new
paradigm
Open
source
pharma
challenges
the
current
business
R&D
model
New
market
for
DIY
health
(9000
Apple
apps
for
personal
health
care)
…look at what is happening in
health care…

17. Patients now have limitless
ways to be as knowledgeable
as the doctor
(mass) Customization of health care
becomes the new paradigm
Open source pharma challenges the current
business R&D model
New market for DIYhealth
(9000Apple apps for personal
health care)
…the future? Health provision ‘as
a service’…

18. Sophistication
Accuracy
Ways to spot long-term
trends
Frederic
De
Meyer
@
i4fi
GUT
FEEL

20. …the power of system thinking…

21. Sophistication
Accuracy
Ways to spot long-term
trends
Frederic
De
Meyer
@
i4fi
GUT
FEEL

22. Sophistication
Accuracy
Ways to spot long-term
trends
Frederic
De
Meyer
@
i4fi
GUT
FEEL
Sta5s5cal
certain5es

23. …Statistical certainty? Here is a
bold prediction…

24. …why is this relevant for
companies?

25. …prepare for future threats…

26. …prepare for future threats…

27. …prepare for future threats…

28. …prepare for future
opportunities…

29. …prepare for future
opportunities…

30. …prepare for future
opportunities…

31. …align your business to the
future…

32. …room for innovation…

33. …room for innovation…

34. …room for innovation…

35. external
internal
new
competitors
new business
models
new needs of
customers
new customer
segments
new talents and
competencies
new marketing
mix
new
ecosystems
new go-to-
market models
new production
processes
megatrends!
…sharpen your strategy by
understanding these trends

36. #2 discuss Megatrends
internally
#3 draw conclusions
and recommendations
#4 Communicate results
internally and externally
#1 identify
Megatrends to discuss
Mega
trends
A way to assess these long-term
trends

37. • Demographic trends
– Ageing population
– Migration patterns
– Urbanization
– Gap rich-poor
– Generation Y
– Generation Z
– War for talent
• Environment and
sustainability
– Climate change
– Scarce resources
– Peak oil
– Water shortage
– Food stress
– Clean energy
– Smart cities
– Bio materials
– Cradle-to-cradle
– Micro sustainable innovations
– Eco activism
– Biomimicry
• Geopolitical trends
– Power shift
– Globalization 3.0
– Rising middle class
– Energy dependence
– The Market State
• Consumer & societal
trends
– Mass customization
– Ethical buying
– ‘Buy local’
– Social & Group buying
– Personalization
– Sharing economy
– Radical transparency
– Massive Open Online Courses
(MOOCs)
– Personal Health
– Digital divide
• Technology trends
– Big Data/ data science
– Internet of Things (IoT)
– Augmented Reality
– Consumerization of IT (BYOD)
– Technology ‘as a Service’
– Home 3D printing
– Business 3D printing
– Bioprinting
– Enhanced Humans
– Wearable Technologies
• Business trends
– Life Cycle Assessment
– Disintermediation
– Crowdsourcing & funding
– Open innovation
– Gamification
– Corporate Social Responsibility
(CSR)
– Cause Marketing
– Social Business Innovation
– Social entrepreneurs
– Intrapreneurship
– Businesses get social
– Holacracy
– Virtualization of the corporation
www.fredericdemeyer.com

38. one hurricane is not a trend, it’s an event...
an increasing number of hurricanes in the US
is a trend, not necessarily a megatrend
a worldwide increase in number and intensity of
hurricanes would be a megatrend
and the consequences might trigger new
(mega)trends
What are megatrends?

39. • long-lasting (>10 years)
• amplifying
• cause disruptive shift
• have a global impact
• not prone to change of taste or mood, lobby
My ‘rules of thumb’

40. #2 discuss Megatrends
internally
#3 draw conclusions
and recommendations
#4 Communicate results
internally and externally
#1 identify
Megatrends to discuss
Mega
trends
A way to assess these long-term
trends

41. The power of exchanging views
and opinions

42. • No rules (great scotch)
• Anything goes
• No critisism
• No ‘impossibles’

44. Teaser: what would be the advantage
if planes would land upside down?

45. Results of the survey

51. …my advise to young
trendwatchers

52. #1: read a(n awful) lot

53. #2: read even more…

54. #3: follow the start-up scene

55. #4: get efficient in researching
evidence

56. #5: look for patterns and links

57. #6: constantly ask yourself “what
does it mean?”

58. #7: build a (strong) opinion
• “In 20 years we will all be freelancers”
• “The role of government will become
obsolete in 50 years”
• “Sustainable future will be driven by
population, not government(s)”

59. #8: communicate… extensively!
Write articles for media friends
+240K views
+900 downloads
Slideshare works
Blogs still work (for now)
Special mention…
Usual suspects

60. #9: look for role models (but
remain yourself)

61. #10: offer things for free
ü
charity
ü
non-­‐profit
ü
audience
of
poten5al
clients
ü
exis5ng
clients
ü
conferences
I
would
have
paid
for
to
a;end

62. #11: but not everything…
60 Megatrend Fact Sheets
(briefing document for long-term planning and
innovation sessions)
@fdemeyer
frederic@i4fi.com
fredericdemeyer.com
Instituteforfutureinsights
fdemeyer

63. #12: be patient…
2 years
lead time

64. www.business-­‐economics.be
#13: write a book…

65. www.i4fi.com
www.fredericdemeyer.com
@fdemeyer
addi5onal
ques5ons:
frederic@i4fi.com
Thank
you!

66. About me…!
Sept
2011
–
now
Jan
2001
–
Sept
2011
Sept
1999
–
Dec
2000
Dec
1998
–
Sept
1999
July
1998
–
Nov
1998
Sept
1997
–
June
1998
Sept
1995
–
Aug
1997
<1995