Professional Edge Presentation to BBCC

1. The Art and Science of Decision-Making Doug Fertuck March 4, 2010

2. Elements of a Decision Doug Fertuck www.fertuck.com 248-881-3244

3. Elements of a Marketing Decision Apply the lessons of the market and product analysis

4. Doug Fertuck www.fertuck.com 248-881-3244 Potential serious surgical complications Surgery still an option Surgery still an option Pain Mobility Time/Cost/Insurance Total Score 7 6 2 15 5 4 2 11 3 2 1 6 3 2 6 11 5 4 8 17 5 4 6 15 6 6 6 18 4 3 6 13

5. Mind Map of Smart Decision Making Develop ways to manage the risk of your choice Trade-off desirability vs. probability Understand your risk tolerance to choose under uncertainty Use decision trees to model the process Understand the consequences of each outcome Assign probabilities to each outcome Define possible outcomes for each uncertainty Identify key uncertainties Address Uncertainty If Necessary Rethink the unsure judgments Seek information as necessary to make informed swaps Simplify a complex decision the even swap method Eliminate the dominated tradeoffs Make the Necessary Tradeoffs Understand if there is meaningful uncertainty Seek judgments of others selectively Use objective measures and scales as appropriate Imagine yourself in the future as you assess Assess each alternative against each objective (Consequences Table) Describe the Consequences Know when to quit Gather data as appropriate Seek other ideas after exhausting your own Don't prejudge; challenge constraints Develop a range of alternatives by thinking "how” to meet the objectives Generate Alternatives Clarify and test your thinking Focus on ends not means Brainstorm all your concerns and wishes What do you really need and want? Define the Objectives or Decision Criteria Be creative, expansive, and critical Generate alternative problem definitions Challenge the constraints What is the "trigger” driving the need to make a decision? Define the Decision Problem Doug Fertuck www.fertuck.com 248-881-3244 Make a Smart Decision

8. Focus of Breakout Session Apply the lessons of the market and product analysis

11. Joan Florian, TTX Ingenuity LLC Doug Fertuck, Fertuck Enterprise Directions