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BUSINESS DIGEST           VOL. NO. 8   ISSUE NO. 11   FEBRUARY 2012




A time to rekindle the future
The India show
goes to Lahore
Inside…
                                                                                            BUSINESS DIGEST           VOL. NO. 8   ISSUE NO. 11   FEBRUARY 2012




Chairman
Dr. Rajiv Kumar


Editor
                                              14
                                              Cover Story:
                                                                                            A time to rekindle the future
                                                                                            The India show
Meera Kumar
                                              » The ‘India Show’ goes to Lahore             goes to Lahore
Managing Editor                               » Benefits of two-way trade
Sukumar Sah                                   » Potential areas of cooperation

Advertising & Circulation
Animesh Goswami                                 4     Secretary General’s Message
PL Joseph
Veena Srivastava
Rahul Siwach
                                                6     Fiscal viability, delivery outcomes of Food Subsidy Bill in doubt

Dinesh Bhandari
                                              10      500 million Indians will need new homes in urban areas by 2025:
                                                      FICCI Report
Design & Art
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                                              22      Gradual shift in global economic power
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Statement about Ownership and other
                                              28      Financial literacy for retail investors vital

Particulars about the Journal (FICCI
Business Digest) required to be
                                              32      India should stay on reforms course, says Financial Times’ Martin Wolf

published under Rule 8 of the
Registrar Central Rules, 1956.
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                                                      disasters
Printed and Published by Secretary
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Commerce and Industry, New Delhi              38      Promoting safe use of industrial chemicals
and Published at Federation House
Tansen Marg, New Delhi - 110001               40      Macro-economic indicators

R.N.I No. DELENG/2004/13722
Federation of Indian Chambers
of Commerce and Industry, FICCI,
Federation House, Tansen Marg,
                                              WE LOOK FORWARD TO YOUR FEEDBACK
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2 || FICCI Business Digest || February 2012
SECRETARY GENERAL’S MESSAGE


                                                                            Dear Reader,




                                                                            O     ur special feature in this issue focuses on FICCI’s leading priority,
                                                                                  which is to contribute to improving India-Pakistan relations and
                                                                            economic ties. As a part of this FICCI organized the ‘India Show’ at
                                                                            Lahore and took a delegation of about 100 businessmen to Lahore,
                                                                            Karachi and Islamabad. The effort is helping the two neighbours to
                                                                            recognize their enormous potential and the benefits of collaboration.
                                                                            The delegation was led by Minister of Commerce, Anand Sharma.
                                                                            Both countries are coming to recognize that India Pakistan trade
                                                                            amounts to less than 1 per cent of their respective global trade, a
                              Dr. Rajiv Kumar
                                                                            travesty when the potential for bilateral trade between the two countries
                                                                            is tremendous. We were somewhat disappointed that contrary to our
                                                                            expectations, the Pakistan cabinet shelved the decision to phase out the
                                                                            positive list and replace it with a negative list as the basis for conducting
                                                                            bilateral trade. But this disappointment has since given way to strong
                                                                            optimism with the announcement late February by the Pakistan
                                                                            government to adopt this historical step and to move to a full-fledged
                                                                            MFN based trade regime with India by the end of the year. FICCI’s
                                                                            efforts will stand vindicated once the two countries begin to trade,
                                                                            invest and allow movement of persons across each other’s borders as
                                                                            any other neighbors are expected to do.

                                                                            To move to another vitally important subject, here are some stark facts
                                                                            - by 2025 nearly 500 million Indians will need new, urban homes, close
                                                                            to the needs of China, North America and Western Europe combined.
                                                                            India’s population is slated to grow to 1.7 billion by 2050 and rapid
                                                                            urbanization will add nearly 900 million people to its cities.
                                                                            City capacity will need to grow nearly 400 per cent in less than 50 years.
                                                                            This is the scale of urbanization and urban infrastructure needs India
                                                                            has to contend with. We present some interesting perspectives on this
                                                                            matter in this issue.

                                                                            You can also read Martin Wolf’s views regarding the lessons India
                                                                            should learn from the European crisis in forming its own policies.
                                                                            Martin Wolf, renowned commentator of the Financial Times suggests
                                                                            two big lessons; his lecture at FICCI was very well received – you will
                                                                            enjoy reading the conclusions he draws for India.

                                                                            We also bring you President Kanoria’s article on how businesses and
                                                                            national governments are coping with the gradual shift in global
                                                                            economic power which appeared in The Economic Times of February
                                                                            9, 2012. This issue also carries an excerpted article authored by me and
                                                                            Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh on the pitfalls of the food subsidy program on
                                                                            which our government has embarked in full measure.

                                                                            We at FICCI would be delighted to get your feedback.




                              4 || FICCI Business Digest || February 2012
COVER STORY



              The ‘India Show’ goes to Lahore
              Rekindling The Future




              Anand Sharma, India’s Commerce & Industry and Textiles (2nd from right) with Makhdoom Amin Fahim, Pakistan’s Senior fedral Minister for
              Commerce, at the ‘India Show’ in Lahore.




                                                              F
                                                                     ebruary 13, 2012 will go                    FICCI in association with the
                                                                     down in the history of India-            India’s Commerce and Industry
                                                                     Pakistan relations as the day            Ministry, and with the support of
                                                              when commerce scored over politics;             Commerce Ministry of Pakistan
                                                              a day when the business leaders of              organized the first ever exhibition of
                                                              both nations embraced one another;              Indian products in Pakistan (Lahore)
                                                              when Indian CEOs walked the extra               at the Lahore Expo Centre from
                                                              mile right through the Attari-Wagah             February 11-13, 2012. The India
              The popular sentiment                           border their Commerce Minister,                 Show was inaugurated by Makhdoom
                                                              breaking down, as it were, the ‘Berlin          Amin Fahim, Senior Federal Minister
              voiced by the business                          Wall of Asia’.                                  for Commerce, Government of
              community in Pakistan                              India-Pakistan       trade      has          Pakistan. Fifty six Indian companies
                                                              historically been low due to decades            put up 110 stalls showcasing India’s
              is in favour of opening                         of hostilities and mistrust between             accomplishments in sectors such
              borders to promote                              the two countries; currently the                as agricultural machinery and farm
              peace. A majority                               trade volume is stagnating at US$ 2.7           equipments, automobile components,
                                                              billion. This is surely set to change;          apparels, consumer durables, tea,
              of the chambers of                              the US$ 6 billion trade target by 2014          coffee, herbal products, home
              commerce of Pakistan                            seems within grasp.                             appliances and gems and jewellery.
                                                                 More than 120 Indian business                The three-day exhibition saw footfalls
              have conveyed to the                            leaders visited Lahore, Karachi and             of more than 60,000, with a large
              Pakistan Government                             Islamabad from February 13-15 to                number of Pakistani people truning
                                                              participate in meetings organized               up religiously for the show every day.
              that it is time to put                          by the Chambers of Commerce                        Indian exhibitors were overw-
              in place a liberal trade                        and Industry of Lahore, Karachi,                helmed by the response to their stalls.
                                                              Rawalpindi and Federation of                    Many exhibitors who had got limited
              regime.                                         Pakistan Chambers of Commerce                   samples for display gave them away
                                                              and Industry which were addressed               as a goodwill gesture to the visitors at
                                                              by the Commerce Ministers of India              their stalls. Some did brisk business
                                                              and Pakistan and Presidents of                  like the water purifier maker, Kent,
                                                              FICCI and CII.                                  which received several queries and is


              14 || FICCI Business Digest || February 2012
COVER STORY
R. V. Kanoria, President, FICCI, presenting a memento to Makhdoom Amin Fahim. Anand Sharma (left) looks on.




now exploring the possibility of tying         accrue from it. He also said that the                 Former FICCI President, Rajan
up with local distributors and dealers         India Show at Lahore had kicked off a             Bharti Mittal, expressed deep
in Pakistan to market its goods.               new phase in the trade and economic               satisfaction over the “historic’
   Anand Sharma, Indian Commerce,              engagements of India and Pakistan                 visit and emphasized the need to
Industry and Textiles Minister,                and that the visit would consolidate              introduce a more liberal visa regime.
presided over the closing function             people-to-people exchanges between                “A businessman can’t function with a
of the India Show. FICCI President,            the two countries. The Indian Com-                city specific visa that does not allow
R V Kanoria, addressing the gath-              merce Minister along with senior                  him to visit more than one city.
ering on this occasion expressed               business leaders from India including             While it is alright to have a more
optimism about the interest that this          FICCI President called on the                     restrictive visa regime due to security
historic visit would generate and the          Governors and Chief Ministers of                  reasons, in the case of businessman
gains that both the countries would            Punjab and Sind.                                  there is a strong case for easing rules
                                                                                                 to promote trade and commerce,”
                                                                                                 he observed.
Top Five Export Items from India to Pakistan (Figure In USD Million)                                 FICCI President, R V Kanoria
                                                                                                 felt that India has to be more
  S. No. HS Code Commodity                               2009-2010           2010-11             accommodating with Pakistan in
                                                                                                 importing goods such as cement in
  1      17          Sugars and Sugar                    1.07                654.01              which Pakistan has a compataive
                     Confectionary                                                               advantage so that the trade imbalance
                                                                                                 against Pakistan is reduced.
  2      52          Cotton                              242.77              401.82                  The popular sentiment voiced by
                                                                                                 the business community in Pakistan
  3      29          Organic Chemicals                   308.29              273.78              is in favour of opening borders to
                                                                                                 promote peace. A majority of the
  4      54          Man-made Filaments                  419.78              234                 chambers of commerce of Pakistan
                                                                                                 have conveyed to the Pakistan
  5      7           Edible Vegetables and               59.85               74.05               Government that it is time to put
                     Certain Roots and Tubers                                                    in place a liberal trade regime.
                                                                                                 The focus must shifted to direct
                                   Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Govt. of India     trade between the two countries.


                                                                                               February 2012 || FICCI Business Digest || 15
COVER STORY


              A Pakistani businessmen trading with
              the Indian Oil Corporation pointed
              out that there was demand of 30,000
              million tons of petrochemicals per
              month from Pakistan which could
              increase three-fold if trade is allowed
              in this commodity through the
              Wagah Border.
                  It’s interesting to note that info-
              rmal trade, including third country
              trade, between India and Pakistan
              is estimated at USD 10 billion while
              the formal trade is only about US$ 3
              billion. Trade through third countries
              or the circular trade is mainly
              conducted through agents operating
              in free ports like Dubai or Singapore
              and the Central Asian Republic
              (CAR) countries.                               Indian business leaders with Commerce Ministers of India and Pakistan.
                  The fact that a large number of
              items are traded between India and
              Pakistan through informal channels
              presents the case for potential increase
              in bilateral trade. The informal trade            A long standing demand of India               India-Pakistan trade
              between the two countries mainly               which has been accepted by the
              takes place through two routes: One            Pakistani establishment is the easy              has historically been
              is smuggling across the borders and            availability of visas and easing people          low due to decades of
              other is through a more circuitous             to people contact. In a Joint Statement
              route, involving a third country.              issued at Islamabad at the conclusion            hostilities and mistrust
              Informal trade happens in goods                of the official level bilateral talks,           between the two
              that are not on Pakistan’s positive            the Commerce Ministers of India
              list and hence cannot be imported              and Pakistan said that it has been               countries; currently
              legally (Pharmaceuticals, cosmetics,           decided, in principle, to give multiple          the trade volume is
              jewellery) and have a high import              visas to businessmen and modalities
              tariff in Pakistan (e.g. betel leaves and      are being worked out. Agreements
                                                                                                              stagnating at US$ 2.7
              tractor tyres. Estimates of informal           are also being framed on cooperation             billion. This is surely
              trade vary from US$ 500 million                and mutual assistance in customs
              to five times the size of the formal           matters,      bilateral    cooperation
                                                                                                              set to change; the US$
              trade. The main items of import from           on mutual recognition between                    6 billion trade target
              India are cloth, tires, pharmaceutical         Pakistan Standards and Quality                   by 2014 seems within
              and textile machinery, cosmetics,              Control Authority and Bureau of
              livestock and medicines. They acco-            Indian Standards and Redressal of                grasp.
              unt for roughly 80 per cent of the             Trade Grievances between Pakistan
              total import value.                            and India.

              Top Five Import Items from Pakistan to India (Figure In USD Million)

                S. No. HS Code Commodity                                                                                2009-2010          2010-11

                1      8          Edible Fruit and Nuts; Peel or Citrus Fruit or Melons                                 46.41              62.98

                2      27         Mineral Fuels, Mineral Oils and Products of their Distillation,                       9.55               56.99
                                  Bituminous Substances, Mineral Waxes

                3      25         Salt; Sulphur; Earths and Stone; Plastering Materials;                                42.58              40.43
                                  Lime and Cement

                4      29         Organic Chemicals                                                                     47.01              32.67

                5      52         Cotton                                                                                39.1               22.24
                                                                                                 Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Govt. of India

              16 || FICCI Business Digest || February 2012
COVER STORY
Reduction in Cost if imported from India

 Sector                                  Pakistan’s Cost Reduction if
                                         Imported from India (in per cent)

 Steel                                            55

 Transport Equipment                              26

 Engineering Goods                                15

 Bicycles                                         20

 Pharmaceuticals                                  35

 Fruits & Vegetables                              40

 Sugar                                            30

                                                           Source: FICCI Survey (2009)



   While Pakistan’s informal exports
mainly consists of textiles, 88 per
cent of these trades are routed
through third countries. The main
implications of informal trade are:
loss of revenue for the exchequer and
increased cost for the consumers.
The cost of transportation goes up
by 1.4 to 1.7 times when the indirect
route Mumbai- Dubai-Karachi is
used instead of the direct route
Mumbai – Karachi. This is a clear
indication that Pakistan should open
up its trade with India. The major
routes for informal trades are from
Dubai, Singapore and Afghanistan.
   In the area of infrastructure and        L to R: B. Muthuraman, President, CII; Partap Singh Bajwa, Member of Parliament;
                                            Anand Sharma, India’s Commerce & Industry and Textiles; Makhdoom Amin Fahim, Pakistan’s
issues of connectivity to boost trade
                                            Senior Federal Minister for Commerce; Javed Akhtar Bhatti, President, Rawalpindi Chamber of
and commerce, important items               Commerce and R. V. Kanoria, President, FICCI.
in FICCI’s wish list, the Indian
Commerce Minister hoped that the
construction of an integrated check-        and incomes of people, besides                  produce cost-effective quality goods.
post at the Wagah – Attari Border           facilitating the development of cold            The Board of Investment has
would be complete and ready by April        chains, warehouses and logistics                indicated that Pakistan has so
this year.  Earlier, it was expected        in the border areas like which can              far made bila-teral investment
to be completed by February.  It is         immensely transform the region.                 agreements with 46 countries (except
estimated that the new gate which              Pakistan does not have restriction           India) during the period from 1959
leads to the integrated check-post          on Indian investments whereas                   to 2004. Currently, there is no joint
at Wagah would help increase the            India does not have FDI from                    venture between India and Pakistan
number of trucks transporting               Pakistan at present. According to               despite of a strong business interest
goods through Wagah – Attari from           Anand Sharma, India is actively                 on both sides due to the absence of
the current 100-150 to 500 – 600.           contemplating changes in the foreign            an enabling environment for such
India and Pakistan are also in talks        Exchange Management Act (FEMA)                  investment. For example, there are no
discussing opening another trade            to all foreign direct investment from           institutional mechanisms for bilateral
route in the Munabao - Khokrapar            Pakistan.                                       investment guarantees. There is
route. A Joint Working Group is                As India and Pakistan compete to             considerable lack of information and
examining the feasibility of the new        sell their goods in the global market,          awareness about each other’s trade
trading point. Any increase in trade        there are many areas in which                   regime, commercial policies and
through the land route will have            both the countries can complement               business and regulatory procedures.
spin-off effects on the infrastructure      each other’s needs and hence


                                                                                         February 2012 || FICCI Business Digest || 17
COVER STORY


              Potential Joint Ventures between
              India and Pakistan

              SAARC Chamber of Commerce and
              Industry has identified investment
              possibilities in Pakistan in sectors
              such as fish processing, chemicals
              and pharmaceuticals, automobile
              components        and     information
              technology.
                 A study commissioned by FICCI
              jointly with SAARC Chamber of
              Commerce & Industry and formu-
              lated by Tata Economic Consu-ltancy
              Services outlines the industrial in-
              vestment opportunities & scope for
              joint venture in SAARC Countries.
                 The potential Joint ventures
              identified between India and Pakistan
                                                             Vikramjit Sahney, President, SAARC Chamber of Commerce & Industry addressing a business
              are the following:                             meeting in Karachi.



               Industry Group       Project Focus

               Information          Software Exports Training Centre / Center for Software Training & Management (CSTM) Software
               Technology (IT)      Development Center (SDC).
                                    Pakistan has the potential to become an important software exporting and training center.
                                    India can become a role model & both the countries should co-operate & collaborate to tap the large
                                    global market for software.

               Fish Processing      Processed Frozen / Canned Fish Products
                                    Future thrust should be on valve added canned products exports to the developed countries

               Drugs and       Bulk Drugs
               Pharmaceuticals Expansion of formulation sector (tablets, capsules, ointment, injections etc.).
                               Expansion of health care products (IV fluids, disposable syringes, diagnostic kits etc.).
                               Indian pharma industry can provide the necessary support & assistance to Pakistan for the expansion
                               of its Industry.

               Agro-Chemicals A pesticides manufacturing Unit in Pakistan.
                              With the expansion of agri business, demand for agro chemicals will grow in future.
                              Indian major players can play an important role through transfer of technology.

               Chemicals            Dyes and pigments manufacturing unit in Pakistan
                                    Pakistan has a strong manufacturing base for textiles and leather.
                                    Indian players and multinationals can assist Pakistan in developing the sector.

               Automobile           Integrated auto component complex.
               Ancillary            Next to India, Pakistan is the only country in the SAARC
                                    Region to Manufacture & Assemble Passenger Cars.
                                    Pakistan may also consider Assembly of HCV & LCV in collaboration with Tata Motors /
                                    Ashok Leyland from India.

               Light Engineering L P G cylinder manufacturing unit in Pakistan
                                 Technology can be sourced from India.
                                 Scope for Inclusion of cylinders for Industrial Gases.

               Leather              Manufacturing complex for a variety of value added
               processing           Leather Footwear
               complex: value       Leather Garments
               added products       Leather Bags
               for exports          Pakistan & India should cooperate to Tap the Global Market and expand Market Share.



              18 || FICCI Business Digest || February 2012
COVER STORY
   India’s initiative found a more
than adequate resonance in the
Pakistani establishment. With the
recent announcement by Pakistan
of a negative list of items importable
from India and its commitment to
grant Most Favoured Nation (MFN)
status to India by the end of this          The sentiment today on both sides
year, quite suddenly the prospects       of the border is optimistic, one that
of reaping the advantages from the       give gives rise to anticipation and
SAFTA agreement have brightened.         hope of rekindling the future.

Comparison with other SAARC Countries

 Country             Population (in million) 2010 est.    GDP, PPP (constant 2005             Total Trade with India in
                                                          billion international $)            2010-11 (in USD billion)

 Bangladesh          148.69                               221 (2010 est.)                     4.05

 Sri Lanka           20.86                                95 (2010 est.)                      4.54

 Pakistan            173.59                               419 (2010 est.)                     2.67

                                                                            Source: WDI & Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India



 Benefits of                             Potential Areas of Cooperation
 two-way trade
                                         Agriculture: India and Pakistan, both          Cement: There has been sharp
                                         agrarian economies, could cooperate            increase of export of cement from
 India Pakistan trade amounts            in agricultural sector which is a              Pakistan to India in recent past
 to less than 1 per cent of their        major component of GDP and largest             because of the increasing demand
 respective global trade. However,       employment generating sector in either         in India. This is due to the boom in
 the volumes of third country trade      country. The food and agri- business           the housing and construction sector.
 and informal trade indicate the         industry has a significant impact on           Rising trade in cement is win-win
 tremendous potential for bilateral      the regional economy. This industry            situation for both countries and will
 trade between the two countries.        has one of the highest economic                help Pakistan to reduce its trade
 Several restrictions on official        multiplier effects among the various           deficit with India.
 trade compel both the countries         industries even ahead of telecom or
 to import certain goods from far        power. Liberalized India-Pakistan              Engineering Industry: Trade libera-
 off sources, which they can easily      trade in agro sector would give further        lization with India especially for
 import from each other. India           boost to employment generation in              iron ore which is an important raw
 Pakistan trade would ensure             both the countries. The recent export          material for steel industries will place
 cheaper raw materials and low           of sugar, onion, tomato, fresh meat and        the engineering goods industry of
 transportation and insurance
                                         live animals from India to Pakistan            Pakistan at a significant advantage
                                         helped Pakistan to overcome short-             by bringing down prices of steel and
 cost which would translate into
                                         term fluctuations in supply.                   that of finished engineering goods. At
 quality goods at competitive prices
                                             Trade in agriculture between               present, Pakistan imports basic raw
 for both the countries. While
                                         India and Pakistan till date has been          material, iron ore, at a high cost from
 consumers would gain in terms           crisis driven. However, if a robust            Brazil and Australia.
 of lower prices, higher purchasing      regulatory mechanism is put in place
 power and greater choice of traded      in both the countries, agriculture             Transport Equipment: As a conse-
 goods; manufacturers will have          trade could well become market                 quence of high protection provided
 access to the wider markets in the      driven. Integration of markets across          to domestic auto assemblers (two
 neighbourhood. The Government           the border would have a favorable              & four wheelers) prices paid by
 would have revenue gains by             impact on agriculture trade as it              Pakistan consumers are substantially
 bringing informal trade into the        shall even out fluctuations in supply,         higher than comparable prices
 formal channel. Ultimately, this        moderate prices and provide a wider            internationally. Bicycle is another
 would result in a win-win situation     basket of agricultural goods for               category where Indian products
 for everyone.                           consumption.                                   could impact the Pakistan market



                                                                                     February 2012 || FICCI Business Digest || 19
COVER STORY


                                                                                                       can particularly help to enhance
                                                                                                       competitiveness of its leading export
                                                                                                       sectors i.e. textile and leather.

                                                                                                       Plastics: Pakistan’s plastic products
                                                                                                       could dominate Indian market but
                                                                                                       for that high cost. This is largely
                                                                                                       due to the machinery imported by
                                                                                                       this industry from Taiwan, Korea
                                                                                                       and Germany. This machinery can
                                                                                                       be made available from India at
                                                                                                       competitive rates.

                                                                                                       Textiles: Pakistan has competitive
                                                                                                       advantage in cotton textile products
                                                                                                       which need to be revitalized. India,
                                                                                                       on the other hand, has an upper
                                                                                                       hand in silk and other synthetic fibre.
                                                                                                       The opening up of trade will help
                                                                                                       Pakistan to acquire textile chemicals
              R. V. Kanoria, President, FICCI, addressing a   particularly if tariffs were to be       and other inputs at cheaper rates and
              business meeting.                               lowered. India’s comparative advan-      thus to make their products more
                                                              tage lies in its lower steel price       competitive in international market.
                                                              together with scale economies.
                                                                                                       Petroleum Products: As of now,
                                                              Tea: Pakistan has recently emerged       Pakistan has banned imports of
              Trade in agriculture                            as the largest market for exports of     Indian petrol. Though it allowed diesel
              between India and                               Indian tea. India’s share of Pakistani   imports in 2009, due to preferential
                                                              tea market has increased in recent       prices offered by Pakistan’s allies such
              Pakistan till date has                          times, however still remains low.        as Kuwait, supplies from India did
              been crisis driven.                             Pakistan has been sourcing most of       not really take off.
                                                              its tea from Kenya. There is immense        However, India has offered to
              However, if a robust                            potential for Indian tea in the          export petrol, diesel, and aviation
              regulatory mechanism                            Pakistani tea market.                    turbine fuel, fuel oil, besides sulphur,
                                                                                                       polyethylene and polypropylene to
              is put in place in both                         Pharmaceutical: Considering that         the neighbour. Pakistan is currently
                                                                                                       importing these products from other
              countries, agriculture                          Indian pharmaceutical products are
                                                                                                       countries. Imports from India will be
                                                              cheaper than Pakistani products, it
              trade could well become                         would certainly make a difference        advantageous for Pakistan as it will
                                                                                                       be saving on the freight cost since
              market driven.                                  to the common citizen in Pakistan.
                                                                                                       several Indian refineries are located
                                                              In turn, this would help Indian
                                                              pharmaceutical products including        close to the India-Pakistan border.
                                                              bulk drugs and formulation to sell       The refiners who will benefit include
                                                              in large volumes in geographically       Indian Oil Corporation, Reliance
                                                              proximate markets besides impacting      Industries, Essar Oil, and the soon
                                                              positively on industrial growth.         to be fully commissioned refinery
                                                                                                       at Bhatinda.
                                                              Textile Machinery: In Pakistan, there
                                                              is no high-tech textile machinery        Information Technology: India has
                                                              industry. The opening of trade with      established itself as a major player in
                                                              India would help Pakistan to acquire     the information technology segment.
                                                              this machinery directly at much          The software industry in Pakistan
                                                              lower prices rather than high cost       is still in its nascent stages though
                                                              machinery from Germany. Recently,        it has a huge potential to emerge
                                                              Pakistan has allowed the imports         as a major software exporting and
                                                              of Textile Machinery from India.         training centre. India and Pakistan
                                                              However, all categories of Textile       could enter into joint ventures to
                                                              Machinery and its components are         tap the global market for software.
                                                              still not allowed.                       The prospects for success in this
                                                                                                       sector seem to be good. As the basis
                                                              Chemicals: Import of cheaper             of India’s comparative advantage in
                                                              chemicals and dyes from India            IT – low cost and qualified English-


              20 || FICCI Business Digest || February 2012
COVER STORY
                                                                                           Afghanistan to get its share of 38
                                                                                           million standard cubic meters a day
                                                                                           of gas through the pipeline, while
                                                                                           Islamabad will pay ferrying charges
                                                                                           to Afghanistan.
                                                                                              Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline
                                                                                           project is a 2700 km pipeline from
                                                                                           Iran’s South Pars fields in the Persian
                                                                                           Gulf to Pakistan’s major cities of
                                                                                           Karachi and Multan and then further
                                                                                           to Delhi, India. Iran is offering to cover
                                                                                           60 percent of the construction costs
                                                                                           of the pipeline. A land-based pipeline
                                                                                           would be four times cheaper than
                                                                                           any other option, even after taking
                                                                                           into account transit fee payments to
                                                                                           Pakistan. Pakistan could earn transit
Javed Akhtar Bhatti, President, Rawalpindi Chamber of Commerce presenting a memento to     fees from the pipeline and also would
R. V. Kanoria, President, FICCI.                                                           be able to purchase natural gas from
                                                                                           the pipeline. Pakistan is expected
                                                                                           to earn about $200-$500 million
speaking technical personnel – is              entertainment industry can be tapped        in transit fee. India would benefit
replicable in Pakistan. In terms               by encouraging joint productions.           from diversified sources of pipeline
of     infrastructure     requirements         Removing the ban on screening               gas and lower dependence on more
on Pakistan too, the IT sector is              movies would benefit both countries.        expensive liquid natural gas (LNG).
relatively less demanding, both in             Exchanging broadcasting rights to           Even with LNG prices dropping,
terms of sheer scale of investment and         telecast each other’s programmes            industry sources believe that there
challenges of security management.             on television is yet another trade          would be a significant cost advantage,
   The Indian IT training market               opportunity for the two countries.          especially to a pipeline from Iran.
has also grown significantly. Several          Removal of visa restrictions would          Both these projects present a win-
training institutions such as NIIT,            encourage individuals to participate in     win opportunity for both India and
APTECH and SSI have set up                     each other’s entertainment industries.      Pakistan and can go a long way in
training centers in many countries                                                         meeting the energy requirements
including South Asian countries.               The Energy Benefit: The greatest            in one of the world’s fastest growing
India and Pakistan could enter into            economic benefit of trade relations         regions. Energy cooperation between
collaborative arrangements to set up           between India and Pakistan would            India and Pakistan would have a
training institutes in Pakistan which          occur in the sphere of energy               stabilizing effect on the region as
would enable enlarge the technical             cooperation. India is one of the most       a whole.
workforce in Pakistan).                        rapidly growing energy markets                 In recent times Pakistan has been
                                               in the world and will be able to            facing a major power shortage, from
Tourism: Tourism holds immense                 absorb new sources of supply as they        both gas and electricity sources.
potential for the two countries.               materialize in the region. Pakistan’s       In this regard India and Pakistan are
A liberal visa regime as well as               potential role in fulfilling this need
                                                                                           considering the option of electricity
improved transport linkages would              is not as a supplier but as a potential
                                                                                           trading. The first meeting of the
go a long way in improving tourism             transit route for energy from Iran
                                                                                           Joint Group of Experts to examine
between the two nations                        and Central Asia. This would require
                                                                                           feasibility of trade of electricity was
                                               construction of one or more new
                                               pipelines, a major capital investment       held on 20th October 2011 at New
Health: Pakistani patients could also
come to India for treatment. Easing            that makes sense only if the political      Delhi. Central Electricity Authority
visa restrictions would greatly help           stability and economic feasibility of       and Power Grid Corporation of India
Pakistanis to come for treatment. So           the project can be counted on.              limited/Power System Operation
far, only a handful of Pakistani patients         The economics look very                  Corporation Ltd have been designated
have visited India for treatment.              promising. The two major proj-              as the nodal technical agencies from
Removal of visa restrictions for               ects under consideration for a              the Indian side. They are interacting
patients, and for doctors would                very long period of time are the            with National Transmission and
greatly facilitate such trade.                 Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline          Dispatch Company Ltd of Pakistan
                                               and      Turkeministan-Afghanistan-         to work out the optimal technical
Entertainment:     The     common              Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline.             solutions for grid connectivity
culture and language between India             The TAPI pipeline project is                between both countries. A broad
and Pakistan facilitate immense                approximately pegged at a cost of           understanding has been reached on
opportunities for trade and coope-             USD 7.6 billion. As per the latest          possible grid connectivity between
ration in the film, television and             arrangement agreed on - India               Amritsar-Lahore to enable trade of
music sector. This potential in the            will pay transit fee to Pakistan and        up to 500 MW of power.


                                                                                         February 2012 || FICCI Business Digest || 21
What are the benefits of FICCI membership?
                Who should I contact at FICCI regarding sectoral queries?
    What are the benefits of FICCI’s B2B services and how can I avail this service?
                          What are the various services offered by FICCI?

                                Does FICCI have an impressive membership?
                             Will this membership be applicable worldwide?




members’ helpline
                                                         Members who have questions, concerns or
                                                         queries related to matters of policy or any
                                                         FICCI activities should contact :


                                                         Sudeshna Banerjee
                                                         Deputy Director

                                                         Toll Free: 1800-11-3128
                                                         membershelpline@ficci.com




                                                         Federation House, 1 Tansen Marg
                                                         New Delhi 110001

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Rekindling the Future - India Pakistan Economic Relations

  • 1. BUSINESS DIGEST VOL. NO. 8 ISSUE NO. 11 FEBRUARY 2012 A time to rekindle the future The India show goes to Lahore
  • 2. Inside… BUSINESS DIGEST VOL. NO. 8 ISSUE NO. 11 FEBRUARY 2012 Chairman Dr. Rajiv Kumar Editor 14 Cover Story: A time to rekindle the future The India show Meera Kumar » The ‘India Show’ goes to Lahore goes to Lahore Managing Editor » Benefits of two-way trade Sukumar Sah » Potential areas of cooperation Advertising & Circulation Animesh Goswami 4 Secretary General’s Message PL Joseph Veena Srivastava Rahul Siwach 6 Fiscal viability, delivery outcomes of Food Subsidy Bill in doubt Dinesh Bhandari 10 500 million Indians will need new homes in urban areas by 2025: FICCI Report Design & Art www.seemasethidesign.com 22 Gradual shift in global economic power © All Rights are reserved. No part of this publication may be 24 ‘Introduce National Policy on Railways’ reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or 25 Financing of PPPs, major challenge for banks: FICCI-E&Y Paper by any means, Electronic, Mechanical, Photocopying, Recording and/or otherwise without the prior written 26 Ashwani Kumar for ‘frugal innovation’ to produce quality products cheaply permission of the Publisher. Statement about Ownership and other 28 Financial literacy for retail investors vital Particulars about the Journal (FICCI Business Digest) required to be 32 India should stay on reforms course, says Financial Times’ Martin Wolf published under Rule 8 of the Registrar Central Rules, 1956. 36 NDMA concern at capability to deal with chemical and biological disasters Printed and Published by Secretary General on behalf of (or owned by) 37 Threat perception of chemical, bio-terrorism is high: Gen. Vij Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, New Delhi 38 Promoting safe use of industrial chemicals and Published at Federation House Tansen Marg, New Delhi - 110001 40 Macro-economic indicators R.N.I No. DELENG/2004/13722 Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, FICCI, Federation House, Tansen Marg, WE LOOK FORWARD TO YOUR FEEDBACK New Delhi - 110001 Phone: 23738760-70 (11 Lines) We would like your feedback/comments to enable us to Fax: 23320714, 23721504 improve our offering. Write to us at: meera.kumar@ficci.com or E-Mail: ficci@ficci.com, sukumar@ficci.com Website: www.ficci.com For Advertising, please write to: publications@ficci.com 2 || FICCI Business Digest || February 2012
  • 3. SECRETARY GENERAL’S MESSAGE Dear Reader, O ur special feature in this issue focuses on FICCI’s leading priority, which is to contribute to improving India-Pakistan relations and economic ties. As a part of this FICCI organized the ‘India Show’ at Lahore and took a delegation of about 100 businessmen to Lahore, Karachi and Islamabad. The effort is helping the two neighbours to recognize their enormous potential and the benefits of collaboration. The delegation was led by Minister of Commerce, Anand Sharma. Both countries are coming to recognize that India Pakistan trade amounts to less than 1 per cent of their respective global trade, a Dr. Rajiv Kumar travesty when the potential for bilateral trade between the two countries is tremendous. We were somewhat disappointed that contrary to our expectations, the Pakistan cabinet shelved the decision to phase out the positive list and replace it with a negative list as the basis for conducting bilateral trade. But this disappointment has since given way to strong optimism with the announcement late February by the Pakistan government to adopt this historical step and to move to a full-fledged MFN based trade regime with India by the end of the year. FICCI’s efforts will stand vindicated once the two countries begin to trade, invest and allow movement of persons across each other’s borders as any other neighbors are expected to do. To move to another vitally important subject, here are some stark facts - by 2025 nearly 500 million Indians will need new, urban homes, close to the needs of China, North America and Western Europe combined. India’s population is slated to grow to 1.7 billion by 2050 and rapid urbanization will add nearly 900 million people to its cities. City capacity will need to grow nearly 400 per cent in less than 50 years. This is the scale of urbanization and urban infrastructure needs India has to contend with. We present some interesting perspectives on this matter in this issue. You can also read Martin Wolf’s views regarding the lessons India should learn from the European crisis in forming its own policies. Martin Wolf, renowned commentator of the Financial Times suggests two big lessons; his lecture at FICCI was very well received – you will enjoy reading the conclusions he draws for India. We also bring you President Kanoria’s article on how businesses and national governments are coping with the gradual shift in global economic power which appeared in The Economic Times of February 9, 2012. This issue also carries an excerpted article authored by me and Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh on the pitfalls of the food subsidy program on which our government has embarked in full measure. We at FICCI would be delighted to get your feedback. 4 || FICCI Business Digest || February 2012
  • 4. COVER STORY The ‘India Show’ goes to Lahore Rekindling The Future Anand Sharma, India’s Commerce & Industry and Textiles (2nd from right) with Makhdoom Amin Fahim, Pakistan’s Senior fedral Minister for Commerce, at the ‘India Show’ in Lahore. F ebruary 13, 2012 will go FICCI in association with the down in the history of India- India’s Commerce and Industry Pakistan relations as the day Ministry, and with the support of when commerce scored over politics; Commerce Ministry of Pakistan a day when the business leaders of organized the first ever exhibition of both nations embraced one another; Indian products in Pakistan (Lahore) when Indian CEOs walked the extra at the Lahore Expo Centre from mile right through the Attari-Wagah February 11-13, 2012. The India The popular sentiment border their Commerce Minister, Show was inaugurated by Makhdoom breaking down, as it were, the ‘Berlin Amin Fahim, Senior Federal Minister voiced by the business Wall of Asia’. for Commerce, Government of community in Pakistan India-Pakistan trade has Pakistan. Fifty six Indian companies historically been low due to decades put up 110 stalls showcasing India’s is in favour of opening of hostilities and mistrust between accomplishments in sectors such borders to promote the two countries; currently the as agricultural machinery and farm peace. A majority trade volume is stagnating at US$ 2.7 equipments, automobile components, billion. This is surely set to change; apparels, consumer durables, tea, of the chambers of the US$ 6 billion trade target by 2014 coffee, herbal products, home commerce of Pakistan seems within grasp. appliances and gems and jewellery. More than 120 Indian business The three-day exhibition saw footfalls have conveyed to the leaders visited Lahore, Karachi and of more than 60,000, with a large Pakistan Government Islamabad from February 13-15 to number of Pakistani people truning participate in meetings organized up religiously for the show every day. that it is time to put by the Chambers of Commerce Indian exhibitors were overw- in place a liberal trade and Industry of Lahore, Karachi, helmed by the response to their stalls. Rawalpindi and Federation of Many exhibitors who had got limited regime.  Pakistan Chambers of Commerce samples for display gave them away and Industry which were addressed as a goodwill gesture to the visitors at by the Commerce Ministers of India their stalls. Some did brisk business and Pakistan and Presidents of like the water purifier maker, Kent, FICCI and CII. which received several queries and is 14 || FICCI Business Digest || February 2012
  • 5. COVER STORY R. V. Kanoria, President, FICCI, presenting a memento to Makhdoom Amin Fahim. Anand Sharma (left) looks on. now exploring the possibility of tying accrue from it. He also said that the Former FICCI President, Rajan up with local distributors and dealers India Show at Lahore had kicked off a Bharti Mittal, expressed deep in Pakistan to market its goods. new phase in the trade and economic satisfaction over the “historic’ Anand Sharma, Indian Commerce, engagements of India and Pakistan visit and emphasized the need to Industry and Textiles Minister, and that the visit would consolidate introduce a more liberal visa regime. presided over the closing function people-to-people exchanges between “A businessman can’t function with a of the India Show. FICCI President, the two countries. The Indian Com- city specific visa that does not allow R V Kanoria, addressing the gath- merce Minister along with senior him to visit more than one city. ering on this occasion expressed business leaders from India including While it is alright to have a more optimism about the interest that this FICCI President called on the restrictive visa regime due to security historic visit would generate and the Governors and Chief Ministers of reasons, in the case of businessman gains that both the countries would Punjab and Sind. there is a strong case for easing rules to promote trade and commerce,” he observed. Top Five Export Items from India to Pakistan (Figure In USD Million) FICCI President, R V Kanoria felt that India has to be more S. No. HS Code Commodity 2009-2010 2010-11 accommodating with Pakistan in importing goods such as cement in 1 17 Sugars and Sugar 1.07 654.01 which Pakistan has a compataive Confectionary advantage so that the trade imbalance against Pakistan is reduced. 2 52 Cotton 242.77 401.82 The popular sentiment voiced by the business community in Pakistan 3 29 Organic Chemicals 308.29 273.78 is in favour of opening borders to promote peace. A majority of the 4 54 Man-made Filaments 419.78 234 chambers of commerce of Pakistan have conveyed to the Pakistan 5 7 Edible Vegetables and 59.85 74.05 Government that it is time to put Certain Roots and Tubers in place a liberal trade regime. The focus must shifted to direct Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Govt. of India trade between the two countries. February 2012 || FICCI Business Digest || 15
  • 6. COVER STORY A Pakistani businessmen trading with the Indian Oil Corporation pointed out that there was demand of 30,000 million tons of petrochemicals per month from Pakistan which could increase three-fold if trade is allowed in this commodity through the Wagah Border. It’s interesting to note that info- rmal trade, including third country trade, between India and Pakistan is estimated at USD 10 billion while the formal trade is only about US$ 3 billion. Trade through third countries or the circular trade is mainly conducted through agents operating in free ports like Dubai or Singapore and the Central Asian Republic (CAR) countries. Indian business leaders with Commerce Ministers of India and Pakistan. The fact that a large number of items are traded between India and Pakistan through informal channels presents the case for potential increase in bilateral trade. The informal trade A long standing demand of India India-Pakistan trade between the two countries mainly which has been accepted by the takes place through two routes: One Pakistani establishment is the easy has historically been is smuggling across the borders and availability of visas and easing people low due to decades of other is through a more circuitous to people contact. In a Joint Statement route, involving a third country. issued at Islamabad at the conclusion hostilities and mistrust Informal trade happens in goods of the official level bilateral talks, between the two that are not on Pakistan’s positive the Commerce Ministers of India list and hence cannot be imported and Pakistan said that it has been countries; currently legally (Pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, decided, in principle, to give multiple the trade volume is jewellery) and have a high import visas to businessmen and modalities tariff in Pakistan (e.g. betel leaves and are being worked out. Agreements stagnating at US$ 2.7 tractor tyres. Estimates of informal are also being framed on cooperation billion. This is surely trade vary from US$ 500 million and mutual assistance in customs to five times the size of the formal matters, bilateral cooperation set to change; the US$ trade. The main items of import from on mutual recognition between 6 billion trade target India are cloth, tires, pharmaceutical Pakistan Standards and Quality by 2014 seems within and textile machinery, cosmetics, Control Authority and Bureau of livestock and medicines. They acco- Indian Standards and Redressal of grasp. unt for roughly 80 per cent of the Trade Grievances between Pakistan total import value. and India. Top Five Import Items from Pakistan to India (Figure In USD Million) S. No. HS Code Commodity 2009-2010 2010-11 1 8 Edible Fruit and Nuts; Peel or Citrus Fruit or Melons 46.41 62.98 2 27 Mineral Fuels, Mineral Oils and Products of their Distillation, 9.55 56.99 Bituminous Substances, Mineral Waxes 3 25 Salt; Sulphur; Earths and Stone; Plastering Materials; 42.58 40.43 Lime and Cement 4 29 Organic Chemicals 47.01 32.67 5 52 Cotton 39.1 22.24 Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Govt. of India 16 || FICCI Business Digest || February 2012
  • 7. COVER STORY Reduction in Cost if imported from India Sector Pakistan’s Cost Reduction if Imported from India (in per cent) Steel 55 Transport Equipment 26 Engineering Goods 15 Bicycles 20 Pharmaceuticals 35 Fruits & Vegetables 40 Sugar 30 Source: FICCI Survey (2009) While Pakistan’s informal exports mainly consists of textiles, 88 per cent of these trades are routed through third countries. The main implications of informal trade are: loss of revenue for the exchequer and increased cost for the consumers. The cost of transportation goes up by 1.4 to 1.7 times when the indirect route Mumbai- Dubai-Karachi is used instead of the direct route Mumbai – Karachi. This is a clear indication that Pakistan should open up its trade with India. The major routes for informal trades are from Dubai, Singapore and Afghanistan. In the area of infrastructure and L to R: B. Muthuraman, President, CII; Partap Singh Bajwa, Member of Parliament; Anand Sharma, India’s Commerce & Industry and Textiles; Makhdoom Amin Fahim, Pakistan’s issues of connectivity to boost trade Senior Federal Minister for Commerce; Javed Akhtar Bhatti, President, Rawalpindi Chamber of and commerce, important items Commerce and R. V. Kanoria, President, FICCI. in FICCI’s wish list, the Indian Commerce Minister hoped that the construction of an integrated check- and incomes of people, besides produce cost-effective quality goods. post at the Wagah – Attari Border facilitating the development of cold The Board of Investment has would be complete and ready by April chains, warehouses and logistics indicated that Pakistan has so this year.  Earlier, it was expected in the border areas like which can far made bila-teral investment to be completed by February.  It is immensely transform the region. agreements with 46 countries (except estimated that the new gate which Pakistan does not have restriction India) during the period from 1959 leads to the integrated check-post on Indian investments whereas to 2004. Currently, there is no joint at Wagah would help increase the India does not have FDI from venture between India and Pakistan number of trucks transporting Pakistan at present. According to despite of a strong business interest goods through Wagah – Attari from Anand Sharma, India is actively on both sides due to the absence of the current 100-150 to 500 – 600. contemplating changes in the foreign an enabling environment for such India and Pakistan are also in talks Exchange Management Act (FEMA) investment. For example, there are no discussing opening another trade to all foreign direct investment from institutional mechanisms for bilateral route in the Munabao - Khokrapar Pakistan. investment guarantees. There is route. A Joint Working Group is As India and Pakistan compete to considerable lack of information and examining the feasibility of the new sell their goods in the global market, awareness about each other’s trade trading point. Any increase in trade there are many areas in which regime, commercial policies and through the land route will have both the countries can complement business and regulatory procedures. spin-off effects on the infrastructure each other’s needs and hence February 2012 || FICCI Business Digest || 17
  • 8. COVER STORY Potential Joint Ventures between India and Pakistan SAARC Chamber of Commerce and Industry has identified investment possibilities in Pakistan in sectors such as fish processing, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, automobile components and information technology. A study commissioned by FICCI jointly with SAARC Chamber of Commerce & Industry and formu- lated by Tata Economic Consu-ltancy Services outlines the industrial in- vestment opportunities & scope for joint venture in SAARC Countries. The potential Joint ventures identified between India and Pakistan Vikramjit Sahney, President, SAARC Chamber of Commerce & Industry addressing a business are the following: meeting in Karachi. Industry Group Project Focus Information Software Exports Training Centre / Center for Software Training & Management (CSTM) Software Technology (IT) Development Center (SDC). Pakistan has the potential to become an important software exporting and training center. India can become a role model & both the countries should co-operate & collaborate to tap the large global market for software. Fish Processing Processed Frozen / Canned Fish Products Future thrust should be on valve added canned products exports to the developed countries Drugs and Bulk Drugs Pharmaceuticals Expansion of formulation sector (tablets, capsules, ointment, injections etc.). Expansion of health care products (IV fluids, disposable syringes, diagnostic kits etc.). Indian pharma industry can provide the necessary support & assistance to Pakistan for the expansion of its Industry. Agro-Chemicals A pesticides manufacturing Unit in Pakistan. With the expansion of agri business, demand for agro chemicals will grow in future. Indian major players can play an important role through transfer of technology. Chemicals Dyes and pigments manufacturing unit in Pakistan Pakistan has a strong manufacturing base for textiles and leather. Indian players and multinationals can assist Pakistan in developing the sector. Automobile Integrated auto component complex. Ancillary Next to India, Pakistan is the only country in the SAARC Region to Manufacture & Assemble Passenger Cars. Pakistan may also consider Assembly of HCV & LCV in collaboration with Tata Motors / Ashok Leyland from India. Light Engineering L P G cylinder manufacturing unit in Pakistan Technology can be sourced from India. Scope for Inclusion of cylinders for Industrial Gases. Leather Manufacturing complex for a variety of value added processing Leather Footwear complex: value Leather Garments added products Leather Bags for exports Pakistan & India should cooperate to Tap the Global Market and expand Market Share. 18 || FICCI Business Digest || February 2012
  • 9. COVER STORY India’s initiative found a more than adequate resonance in the Pakistani establishment. With the recent announcement by Pakistan of a negative list of items importable from India and its commitment to grant Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to India by the end of this The sentiment today on both sides year, quite suddenly the prospects of the border is optimistic, one that of reaping the advantages from the give gives rise to anticipation and SAFTA agreement have brightened. hope of rekindling the future. Comparison with other SAARC Countries Country Population (in million) 2010 est. GDP, PPP (constant 2005 Total Trade with India in billion international $) 2010-11 (in USD billion) Bangladesh 148.69 221 (2010 est.) 4.05 Sri Lanka 20.86 95 (2010 est.) 4.54 Pakistan 173.59 419 (2010 est.) 2.67 Source: WDI & Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India Benefits of Potential Areas of Cooperation two-way trade Agriculture: India and Pakistan, both Cement: There has been sharp agrarian economies, could cooperate increase of export of cement from India Pakistan trade amounts in agricultural sector which is a Pakistan to India in recent past to less than 1 per cent of their major component of GDP and largest because of the increasing demand respective global trade. However, employment generating sector in either in India. This is due to the boom in the volumes of third country trade country. The food and agri- business the housing and construction sector. and informal trade indicate the industry has a significant impact on Rising trade in cement is win-win tremendous potential for bilateral the regional economy. This industry situation for both countries and will trade between the two countries. has one of the highest economic help Pakistan to reduce its trade Several restrictions on official multiplier effects among the various deficit with India. trade compel both the countries industries even ahead of telecom or to import certain goods from far power. Liberalized India-Pakistan Engineering Industry: Trade libera- off sources, which they can easily trade in agro sector would give further lization with India especially for import from each other. India boost to employment generation in iron ore which is an important raw Pakistan trade would ensure both the countries. The recent export material for steel industries will place cheaper raw materials and low of sugar, onion, tomato, fresh meat and the engineering goods industry of transportation and insurance live animals from India to Pakistan Pakistan at a significant advantage helped Pakistan to overcome short- by bringing down prices of steel and cost which would translate into term fluctuations in supply. that of finished engineering goods. At quality goods at competitive prices Trade in agriculture between present, Pakistan imports basic raw for both the countries. While India and Pakistan till date has been material, iron ore, at a high cost from consumers would gain in terms crisis driven. However, if a robust Brazil and Australia. of lower prices, higher purchasing regulatory mechanism is put in place power and greater choice of traded in both the countries, agriculture Transport Equipment: As a conse- goods; manufacturers will have trade could well become market quence of high protection provided access to the wider markets in the driven. Integration of markets across to domestic auto assemblers (two neighbourhood. The Government the border would have a favorable & four wheelers) prices paid by would have revenue gains by impact on agriculture trade as it Pakistan consumers are substantially bringing informal trade into the shall even out fluctuations in supply, higher than comparable prices formal channel. Ultimately, this moderate prices and provide a wider internationally. Bicycle is another would result in a win-win situation basket of agricultural goods for category where Indian products for everyone. consumption. could impact the Pakistan market February 2012 || FICCI Business Digest || 19
  • 10. COVER STORY can particularly help to enhance competitiveness of its leading export sectors i.e. textile and leather. Plastics: Pakistan’s plastic products could dominate Indian market but for that high cost. This is largely due to the machinery imported by this industry from Taiwan, Korea and Germany. This machinery can be made available from India at competitive rates. Textiles: Pakistan has competitive advantage in cotton textile products which need to be revitalized. India, on the other hand, has an upper hand in silk and other synthetic fibre. The opening up of trade will help Pakistan to acquire textile chemicals R. V. Kanoria, President, FICCI, addressing a particularly if tariffs were to be and other inputs at cheaper rates and business meeting. lowered. India’s comparative advan- thus to make their products more tage lies in its lower steel price competitive in international market. together with scale economies. Petroleum Products: As of now, Tea: Pakistan has recently emerged Pakistan has banned imports of Trade in agriculture as the largest market for exports of Indian petrol. Though it allowed diesel between India and Indian tea. India’s share of Pakistani imports in 2009, due to preferential tea market has increased in recent prices offered by Pakistan’s allies such Pakistan till date has times, however still remains low. as Kuwait, supplies from India did been crisis driven. Pakistan has been sourcing most of not really take off. its tea from Kenya. There is immense However, India has offered to However, if a robust potential for Indian tea in the export petrol, diesel, and aviation regulatory mechanism Pakistani tea market. turbine fuel, fuel oil, besides sulphur, polyethylene and polypropylene to is put in place in both Pharmaceutical: Considering that the neighbour. Pakistan is currently importing these products from other countries, agriculture Indian pharmaceutical products are countries. Imports from India will be cheaper than Pakistani products, it trade could well become would certainly make a difference advantageous for Pakistan as it will be saving on the freight cost since market driven. to the common citizen in Pakistan. several Indian refineries are located In turn, this would help Indian pharmaceutical products including close to the India-Pakistan border. bulk drugs and formulation to sell The refiners who will benefit include in large volumes in geographically Indian Oil Corporation, Reliance proximate markets besides impacting Industries, Essar Oil, and the soon positively on industrial growth. to be fully commissioned refinery at Bhatinda. Textile Machinery: In Pakistan, there is no high-tech textile machinery Information Technology: India has industry. The opening of trade with established itself as a major player in India would help Pakistan to acquire the information technology segment. this machinery directly at much The software industry in Pakistan lower prices rather than high cost is still in its nascent stages though machinery from Germany. Recently, it has a huge potential to emerge Pakistan has allowed the imports as a major software exporting and of Textile Machinery from India. training centre. India and Pakistan However, all categories of Textile could enter into joint ventures to Machinery and its components are tap the global market for software. still not allowed. The prospects for success in this sector seem to be good. As the basis Chemicals: Import of cheaper of India’s comparative advantage in chemicals and dyes from India IT – low cost and qualified English- 20 || FICCI Business Digest || February 2012
  • 11. COVER STORY Afghanistan to get its share of 38 million standard cubic meters a day of gas through the pipeline, while Islamabad will pay ferrying charges to Afghanistan. Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline project is a 2700 km pipeline from Iran’s South Pars fields in the Persian Gulf to Pakistan’s major cities of Karachi and Multan and then further to Delhi, India. Iran is offering to cover 60 percent of the construction costs of the pipeline. A land-based pipeline would be four times cheaper than any other option, even after taking into account transit fee payments to Pakistan. Pakistan could earn transit Javed Akhtar Bhatti, President, Rawalpindi Chamber of Commerce presenting a memento to fees from the pipeline and also would R. V. Kanoria, President, FICCI. be able to purchase natural gas from the pipeline. Pakistan is expected to earn about $200-$500 million speaking technical personnel – is entertainment industry can be tapped in transit fee. India would benefit replicable in Pakistan. In terms by encouraging joint productions. from diversified sources of pipeline of infrastructure requirements Removing the ban on screening gas and lower dependence on more on Pakistan too, the IT sector is movies would benefit both countries. expensive liquid natural gas (LNG). relatively less demanding, both in Exchanging broadcasting rights to Even with LNG prices dropping, terms of sheer scale of investment and telecast each other’s programmes industry sources believe that there challenges of security management. on television is yet another trade would be a significant cost advantage, The Indian IT training market opportunity for the two countries. especially to a pipeline from Iran. has also grown significantly. Several Removal of visa restrictions would Both these projects present a win- training institutions such as NIIT, encourage individuals to participate in win opportunity for both India and APTECH and SSI have set up each other’s entertainment industries. Pakistan and can go a long way in training centers in many countries meeting the energy requirements including South Asian countries. The Energy Benefit: The greatest in one of the world’s fastest growing India and Pakistan could enter into economic benefit of trade relations regions. Energy cooperation between collaborative arrangements to set up between India and Pakistan would India and Pakistan would have a training institutes in Pakistan which occur in the sphere of energy stabilizing effect on the region as would enable enlarge the technical cooperation. India is one of the most a whole. workforce in Pakistan). rapidly growing energy markets In recent times Pakistan has been in the world and will be able to facing a major power shortage, from Tourism: Tourism holds immense absorb new sources of supply as they both gas and electricity sources. potential for the two countries. materialize in the region. Pakistan’s In this regard India and Pakistan are A liberal visa regime as well as potential role in fulfilling this need considering the option of electricity improved transport linkages would is not as a supplier but as a potential trading. The first meeting of the go a long way in improving tourism transit route for energy from Iran Joint Group of Experts to examine between the two nations and Central Asia. This would require feasibility of trade of electricity was construction of one or more new pipelines, a major capital investment held on 20th October 2011 at New Health: Pakistani patients could also come to India for treatment. Easing that makes sense only if the political Delhi. Central Electricity Authority visa restrictions would greatly help stability and economic feasibility of and Power Grid Corporation of India Pakistanis to come for treatment. So the project can be counted on. limited/Power System Operation far, only a handful of Pakistani patients The economics look very Corporation Ltd have been designated have visited India for treatment. promising. The two major proj- as the nodal technical agencies from Removal of visa restrictions for ects under consideration for a the Indian side. They are interacting patients, and for doctors would very long period of time are the with National Transmission and greatly facilitate such trade. Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline Dispatch Company Ltd of Pakistan and Turkeministan-Afghanistan- to work out the optimal technical Entertainment: The common Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline. solutions for grid connectivity culture and language between India The TAPI pipeline project is between both countries. A broad and Pakistan facilitate immense approximately pegged at a cost of understanding has been reached on opportunities for trade and coope- USD 7.6 billion. As per the latest possible grid connectivity between ration in the film, television and arrangement agreed on - India Amritsar-Lahore to enable trade of music sector. This potential in the will pay transit fee to Pakistan and up to 500 MW of power. February 2012 || FICCI Business Digest || 21
  • 12. What are the benefits of FICCI membership? Who should I contact at FICCI regarding sectoral queries? What are the benefits of FICCI’s B2B services and how can I avail this service? What are the various services offered by FICCI? Does FICCI have an impressive membership? Will this membership be applicable worldwide? members’ helpline Members who have questions, concerns or queries related to matters of policy or any FICCI activities should contact : Sudeshna Banerjee Deputy Director Toll Free: 1800-11-3128 membershelpline@ficci.com Federation House, 1 Tansen Marg New Delhi 110001