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George W. Buckley
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer




                                  2009 Outlook
                                                            Meeting
December 8, 2008
© 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.   3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Patrick D. Campbell
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer




                                  2009 Outlook
                                                            Meeting
December 8, 2008
© 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.   3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Forward Looking Statements

     This presentation contains forward-looking information about 3M’s financial results and estimates and business
         prospects that involve substantial risks and uncertainties. You can identify these statements by the use of
      words such as “anticipate,” “estimate,” “expect,” “project,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” “will,” “target,” “forecast”
     and other words and terms of similar meaning in connection with any discussion of future operating or financial
          performance or business plans or prospects. Among the factors that could cause actual results to differ
     materially are the following: (1) worldwide economic and capital markets conditions; (2) competitive conditions
      and customer preferences; (3) foreign currency exchange rates and fluctuations in those rates; (4) the timing
      and acceptance of new product offerings; (5) the availability and cost of purchased components, compounds,
         raw materials and energy (including oil and natural gas and their derivatives) due to shortages, increased
      demand or supply interruptions (including those caused by natural and other disasters and other events); (6)
       the impact of acquisitions, strategic alliances, divestitures, and other unusual events resulting from portfolio
        management actions and other evolving business strategies, and possible organizational restructuring; (7)
       generating fewer productivity improvements than estimated; and (8) legal proceedings, including significant
        developments that could occur in the legal and regulatory proceedings described in the company’s Annual
      Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007 and its subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form
      10-Q (the “Reports”). Changes in such assumptions or factors could produce significantly different results. A
        further description of these factors is located in the Reports under “Risk Factors” in Part I, Item 1A (Annual
       Report) and in Part II, Item 1A (Quarterly Report). The information contained in this presentation is as of the
       date indicated. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements contained in
                     this presentation as a result of new information or future events or developments.

3       © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.                   3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Topics Of Discussion


             Update on 2008 finish
      1


             2009 scenario planning
      2


             Summary
      3


             Q&A
      4




4      © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.   3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Topics Of Discussion


             Update on 2008 finish
      1


             2009 scenario planning
      2


             Summary
      3


             Q&A
      4




5      © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.   3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Summary – Q3 Earnings Call (October 21, 2008)

           The 3M advantage – diversification of geographies, markets, products & technologies
           106-year company history; proven ability to prosper during economic downturns
           Strong balance sheet and consistent cash flow
           Continuous assessment and rebalancing
              – More restructuring likely in slower growth markets
              – Investing prudently in under-penetrated businesses and geographic areas
           2008 full-year financial expectations:
              – $5.40 to $5.48 per share
              – Operating margins 22.5% to 23%
              – Tax rate 31.5% to 32%
              – Cap-ex $1.3B to $1.4B


     *Excludes special items. Please refer to 3M’s October 21, 2008 press release for a complete list and explanation of the special items for the first nine months of 2008.
6                                                                                      3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Q4 2008 Trends
        Rapid Deterioration In Business Activity As Quarter Progresses

        October – sales were a little soft, but profits were in-line with guidance
           – Organic local currency sales down 3%
           – Currency down 5%

        November – rapid volume slowdown, many businesses impacted
           – Organic local currency sales down 17%
           – Currency down 6%

        December – highly uncertain but expecting another month similar to
        November


            Customers Aggressively Responding To Economic Perfect Storm

7     © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.   3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
2008 EPS Update
        Q4 and FY ‘08 Expectations:                                                                                         2008 Full Year EPS
          Q4 organic volume growth                                                                                                   $5.40 - $5.48
                                                                                                                  $5.50
                          Was: -1% to -2%

            Q4 FX EPS impact                                                                                      $5.40
                          Was: flat to -$0.02

            FY 2008 operating margin                                                                              $5.30
                          Was: 22.5% to 23%

            FY 2008 Tax rate
                                                                                                                  $5.20
                          Was: 31.5% to 32%                                                                                          $5.10 - $5.15
            FY 2008 Cap-ex
                                                                                                                  $5.10
                          $1.3B to $1.4B


                                                                                                                                     Q3 Earnings
                                                                                                                                     Call 10/21/08
     *Excludes special items. Please refer to 3M’s October 21, 2008 press release for a complete list and explanation of the special items for the first nine months of 2008.
8                                                                                     3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
2008 EPS Update
        Q4 and FY ‘08 Expectations:                                                                                         2008 Full Year EPS
          Q4 organic volume growth                                                                                $5.50
                          Was: -1% to -2%
                          Now: -10% to -12%
                                                                                                                  $5.40
            Q4 FX EPS impact
                          Was: flat to -$0.02                                                                                                                                   Organic
                                                                                                                                                                                Volume
                                                                                                                  $5.30
            FY 2008 operating margin                                                                                                                                            -$0.22 to
                          Was: 22.5% to 23%                                                                                                                                      -$0.25
                                                                                                                  $5.20
            FY 2008 Tax rate                                                                                                         $5.10 - $5.15
                          Was: 31.5% to 32%
                                                                                                                  $5.10
            FY 2008 Cap-ex
                          $1.3B to $1.4B

                                                                                                                                     Q3 Earnings
                                                                                                                                     Call 10/21/08
     *Excludes special items. Please refer to 3M’s October 21, 2008 press release for a complete list and explanation of the special items for the first nine months of 2008.
9                                                                                     3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
2008 EPS Update
         Q4 and FY ‘08 Expectations:                                                                                         2008 Full Year EPS
           Q4 organic volume growth                                                                                $5.50
                           Was: -1% to -2%
                           Now: -10% to -12%
                                                                                                                   $5.40
             Q4 FX EPS impact
                           Was: flat to -$0.02
                           Now: -$0.08                                                                             $5.30
             FY 2008 operating margin
                           Was: 22.5% to 23%
                                                                                                                   $5.20
                                                                                                                                                                                   FX
             FY 2008 Tax rate
                                                                                                                                                                                 -$0.08
                           Was: 31.5% to 32%
                                                                                                                   $5.10
             FY 2008 Cap-ex
                           $1.3B to $1.4B
                                                                                                                                      Q3 Earnings
                                                                                                                                      Call 10/21/08
      *Excludes special items. Please refer to 3M’s October 21, 2008 press release for a complete list and explanation of the special items for the first nine months of 2008.
10                                                                                     3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
2008 EPS Update
         Q4 and FY ‘08 Expectations:                                                                                         2008 Full Year EPS
           Q4 organic volume growth                                                                                $5.50
                           Was: -1% to -2%
                           Now: -10% to -12%
                                                                                                                   $5.40
             Q4 FX EPS impact
                           Was: flat to -$0.02
                           Now: -$0.08                                                                             $5.30
             FY 2008 operating margin
                           Was: 22.5% to 23%
                                                                                                                   $5.20
                           Now: 21.5% to 22.0%
                                                                                                                                      $5.10 - $5.15
             FY 2008 Tax rate
                                                                                                                   $5.10
                           Was: 31.5% to 32%
                           Now: 31.0% to 31.5%
             FY 2008 Cap-ex
                                                                                                                                           Revised
                           $1.3B to $1.4B (no change)
                                                                                                                                          2008 EPS
      *Excludes special items. Please refer to 3M’s October 21, 2008 press release for a complete list and explanation of the special items for the first nine months of 2008.
11                                                                                     3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Q4 2008 Restructuring Actions
      Continue To Aggressively Restructure The Business To Address Challenges

        Have reduced positions across all businesses and staffs
          – ≈1,800 internally announced
          – Another ≈500 before year-end; mostly international
          – More possible pending business conditions
        All geographies impacted somewhat but heavy focus on developed
        economies
          – U.S., Western Europe and Japan

        Rationalizing 10 manufacturing, technical and office facilities

                           Aggregate Costs Of $215M (≈$0.22 Q4 Special Item)
                                      With 2009 Savings Of $225M
12      © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.       3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Topics Of Discussion


              Update on 2008 finish
       1


              2009 scenario planning
       2


              Summary
       3


              Q&A
       4




13      © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.   3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
2009 Planning Mindset
 Adjusting To Low-Growth Economy In Short-Term While Maintaining Long-Term Growth Focus

          Cash optimization in highly uncertain world – planning conservatively and
          preserving cash
             – Capital expenditures < $1.2B           Disciplined A/R management
             – Tighter acquisition screens            Careful demand planning
             – Minimal share repurchase
          Facing into headwinds
             – Organic volume growth                  Currency
             – Pension                                Higher net interest expense
          Maximizing opportunities
             – Going after market share gains         Productivity programs
             – Restructuring                          Raw materials/pricing
             – Deferring annual pay increases         Modifying working schedules

                Driving Sufficient Cost Reduction To Offset Volume Risk
14   © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.            3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
2009 Scenario Planning

       Organic volume
          – -3% to -7%
       Foreign currency
          – -6% to -7%
       Earnings-per-share
          – -3% to -12%
       Margins steady vs. 2008
       Free cash flow will approximate net income, however pension
       and severance funding will be a wild card


15      © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.   3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
WW IPI Forecasts For 2009
                  Source: Global Insight




                                                                                 -0.4%              0%              -0.4%




                                                                                                    Goldman Sachs


                                                                                                                     UBS
                                                                                   Global Insight
                                 Some Are Expecting A “V” Shaped
                                        Recovery – We Are Not
                                                                                                                            Our Plan
                                                                                                                            Assumes
                                                                                                                           -2 % to -3%

                                         Planning For Softness Throughout 2009
16     © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.                 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Forecasting 09 Organic Volume Growth
            Learning From The Recession Of 2001-02

                       Quarterly % YOY Growth, 2000-03




                                                                                                        During the 4 worst quarters of
                                                                                                             the
                                                                                                        2001-02 economic slowdown:
                                                                                                         1) Global IPI was down 3%
                                                                                                         2) 3M organic volume was down
                                                                                                            5% to 6%




     Notes:1) 3M data excludes divested pharmaceutical business; 2) economic data from Global Insight
17       © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.                                  3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
We Have Been Experiencing A Slowing Economy For Some Time…
                                        • U.S.
                                        •Office retail
                                                                           • Telecom
                                        •Housing
                                                                           • Advertising
                                        •Auto OEM
                                                                                              • Credit market crisis
                                        • Japan, Korea                     • Industrial
                                                                                              • Economic slowdown
                                                                           • Western Europe
                                                                                                spreads rapidly
                                                                                                across industries



                                       U.S. Recession
                                       Started Q4 2007!
                                           (12/1/08)



                                          Organic Volume Growth


              …And We Expect To Come Out Faster On The Recovery
18   © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.             3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Forecasting 09 Organic Volume Growth
        Working The Model Sequentially…A Hypothetical ‘09 Progression

                                                       Organic Volume Growth %
                   2%
                                         Q408e     Q109e        Q209e                    Q309e   Q409e   FY09e
                   0%

                  -2%

                  -4%

                  -6%

                  -8%

                -10%
                                            Possible
                                             Trough
                                                            Ave Organic Volume Down 5%




19     © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.                         3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Forecasting 09 Organic Volume Growth
        Working The Model Sequentially…A Hypothetical ‘09 Progression

                                                       Organic Volume Growth %
                   2%
                                         Q408e     Q109e        Q209e                    Q309e   Q409e   FY09e
                   0%

                  -2%

                  -4%

                  -6%

                  -8%

                -10%
                                            Possible
                                             Trough
                                                            Ave Organic Volume Down 7%




20     © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.                         3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Forecasting 09 Organic Volume Growth
        Working The Model Sequentially…A Hypothetical ‘09 Progression

                                                 Organic Volume Growth %
                   2%
                                         Q408e   Q109e      Q209e                    Q309e   Q409e    FY09e
                   0%

                  -2%

                  -4%

                  -6%

                  -8%
                                                                                                       Range:
                                                                                                     -3% to -7%
                -10%


                                                         Ave Organic Volume Down 3%


          Our Planning Headset Is Closer To The Upper End Of the Range

21     © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.                     3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Industrial Production Forecast – Past And Future
       Expecting Wide Variations Of Growth Across Regions

        (Global Insight: Industrial Production, YOY percent change)




                Growth Is Slowing Everywhere, But There Is Still Growth To
                              Be Had In Developing Markets
22     © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.              3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Emerging Markets A Bigger Factor Today Vs. 2001-02
       And While Economic Growth Will Slow There In 2009, It Remains Robust

            3M Sales To Emerging Market                                                              Industrial Production Growth %
            Countries
                                            $7.5B
                                                                             20%
                                                                                                                                                    China
                                                                                                                                                    Brazil
                                                                                                                                                    Central Eur/Balkans
                                                                             15%
                                                                                                                                                    India
                                                                                                                                                    Russia
                                                                             10%

                     $2.7B
                                                                               5%


                                                                               0%
                                                                                        Q108       Q208   Q308   Q408   Q109   Q209   Q309   Q409
                     2001                   2008e
     % of 3M            17%                    30%                                     Source: Global Insight




         Even In This Environment There Will Be Good Growth Opportunities
      Note: Emerging Markets = Central/East Europe + Middle East + APAC ex-Japan/ANZ + Latin America; economic data from Global Insight

23        © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.                                3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Organic Volume Impact

                  2009 EPS Impact        Organic volumes to be in the range of -3% to -7%
                                                      Recognizing Q4 2008 organic volume @ -10%
                                         Developing economies expected to have positive
                                         growth albeit at lower rates
                                         Developed economies expected to be negative
                                         Managing developed economies for operating
                                         leverage and investing in developing economies
                                         to drive growth




                   -$0.30 to -$0.70

24     © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.   3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Foreign Currency
                        Step Change In Foreign Currency Rates Coincident With Credit Crisis
     Percent Change




                                              Foreign Currency A Significant Headwind In 2009
                           Note: currency mix based on Q3 2008 YTD weighted average sales
25                    © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.                              3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Foreign Currency
                        Step Change In Foreign Currency Rates Coincident With Credit Crisis
     Percent Change




                                                                                                                          Ave 2008   November
                                                                                                             Currencies    Rates     End Rates
                                                                                                             EUR            1.47       1.29
                                                                                                             JPY           103.5       95.2
                                                                                                             BRL            1.83       2.34
                                                                                                             CAD            .93        0.81
                                                                                                             RMB            6.92       6.83
                                                                                                             GBP            1.85       1.52
                                                                                                             KRW           1123        1478




                                              Foreign Currency A Significant Headwind In 2009
                           Note: currency mix based on Q3 2008 YTD weighted average sales
26                    © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.                              3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Foreign Currency Headwind

                    2009 EPS Impact               Used spot rates as of November month-end
      $0.50
                                                  Tremendous volatility in rates over last couple of
                                                  months
                                                  Estimated 2009 sales impact in the range of -6%
      $0.25
                                                  to -7%
                                           -$0.45 toHedge approximately ½ of foreign currency
                                             -$0.50 exposures on a rolling 12-month basis
      $0.00




      ($0.25)




                                 -$0.45
      ($0.50)


27       © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.           3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Restructuring
               Proactively Reducing Structure In A Slower Growth World

                                            Continuously assessing and rebalancing structure
                     2009 EPS Impact
      $0.50
                                            to meet business needs
                                            Actions to date:
                        $0.25 to $0.30
                                             – Q2 2008: ≈200 positions
      $0.25
                                             – Q3 2008: ≈900 positions
                                             – Q4 2008: ≈2,300 positions
      $0.00                                 Consolidating facilities
                                            Aggressive actions in slower growth mature
                                            economies
     ($0.25)
                                            More restructuring likely in 2009


     ($0.50)


28        © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.   3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Raw Materials And Selling Prices

                                              Raw Materials:
                   2009 EPS Impact
                                                In midst of rapid declines in many commodities;
                                                full benefit not expected until H2 2009
                                                  Commodities to trend down; more upside is
                     $0.15 to $0.20
                                                  possible
                                                  Raw materials represent ½ of COGS or
                                                  approximately 25% to sales
                                              Selling prices:
                                                  Focusing on maintaining 2008 price increases
                                                  Drive opportunities to optimize price/value
                                                  Category-defining brands a major strength



                            Highly Fluid Environment But Net Upside in 2009
29      © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.         3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Productivity
          Continuing To Aggressively Reduce Costs And Improve Processes

                   2009 EPS Impact        Reducing indirect costs – a $4B+ category
                                          Lean Six Sigma
                                          Continued supply chain improvements
                     $0.20 to $0.25
                                          Redesigning employee benefit programs
                                          G&A cost containment
                                          Deferring annual pay increases
                                          Modifying working schedules




30      © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.   3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Pension Expense
           Managing Through A Very Unique Market Environment

                                             Fully funded through Q3 2008 however Q4
                    2009 EPS Impact
      $0.50
                                             market returns pressuring asset values
                                             Contributed $200M to U.S. plan in Q3 2008
                                             Higher discount rate expected for year-end
      $0.25
                                             liability measurement given current credit
                                             environment
                                             No mandatory funding obligation
      $0.00

                                             Effective 2009, all new U.S. employees
                        -$0.08 to -$0.12     participate exclusively in a new defined
                                             contribution plan
     ($0.25)




     ($0.50)


31       © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.   3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Net Interest Expense
          Expecting Higher Costs But Improving Liquidity And Certainty
                                          AA/Aaa credit rating
                     2009 EPS Impact
                                          Uninterrupted access to CP market; strong demand for 3M
                                          paper; CP maturities out to Feb ’09
                                          Strong, consistent FCF; unused $1.5B credit facility
                                          Opportunistic bond issuances: Aug ‘08: $850M, 5 yr @
                                          4.375%; Oct ‘08: $800M, 3 yr @ 4.5%
                                          2009 expense higher due to extending duration on debt
                                          portfolio (less reliance on commercial paper) & lower interest
                                          rates on cash & marketable securities
                                               Q3 ‘08 Capital Structure            Long-Term Debt Maturities
                                          $B                                 $B

                     -$0.05 to -$0.10




                                                                           Q4’08 includes $0.4B in puttable securities with
                                                                           longer final maturities
                                                           Cash > CP

32      © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.        3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Putting It All Together


              $5.10
                to
              $5.15
                                                                                        $0.20 to
                                                                                         $0.25

                                                                 $0.15 to
                                                                  $0.20
                                                                                                   -$0.08 to
                                                   $0.25 to                                         -$0.12     -$0.05 to
                                                    $0.30
                                                                                                                -$0.10

                              -$0.30 to
                               -$0.70

                                          -$0.45




       Productivity Efforts Cover The Volume Risk, But FX Too Much To Overcome
        *Excludes special items.

33      © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.                       3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Putting It All Together

                                                                                                                            2009 EPS
                                                                                                                           -3% to -12%
              $5.10
                to
              $5.15
                                                                                        $0.20 to
                                                                                         $0.25
                                                                                                                                    EPS
                                                                                                                           $0.08   Range
                                                                 $0.15 to
                                                                                                                                   $4.50
                                                                  $0.20
                                                                                                   -$0.08 to
                                                                                                                                     to
                                                   $0.25 to                                         -$0.12     -$0.05 to
                                                    $0.30                                                                          $4.95
                                                                                                                -$0.10

                              -$0.30 to
                               -$0.70

                                          -$0.45




       Productivity Efforts Cover The Volume Risk, But FX Too Much To Overcome
        *Excludes special items.

34      © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.                       3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Topics Of Discussion


              Update on 2008 finish
       1


              2009 scenario planning
       2


              Summary
       3


              Q&A
       4




35      © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.   3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
2009 Planning Mindset
 Adjusting To Low-Growth Economy In Short-Term While Maintaining Long-Term Growth Focus

          Cash optimization in highly uncertain world – planning conservatively and
          preserving cash
             – Capital expenditures < $1.2B           Disciplined A/R management
             – Tighter acquisition screens            Careful demand planning
             – Minimal share repurchase
          Facing into headwinds
             – Organic volume growth                  Currency
             – Pension                                Higher net interest expense
          Maximizing opportunities
             – Going after market share gains         Productivity programs
             – Restructuring                          Raw materials/pricing
             – Deferring annual pay increases         Modifying working schedules

                Driving Sufficient Cost Reduction To Offset Volume Risk
36   © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.            3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
Questions
                                         and
                                       Answers
37   © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.      3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
2009 Outlook
                                                            Meeting
December 8, 2008
© 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved.   3M 2009 Outlook Meeting

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3M Company 2009 Outlook Meeting

  • 1. George W. Buckley Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer 2009 Outlook Meeting December 8, 2008 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 2. Patrick D. Campbell Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer 2009 Outlook Meeting December 8, 2008 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 3. Forward Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking information about 3M’s financial results and estimates and business prospects that involve substantial risks and uncertainties. You can identify these statements by the use of words such as “anticipate,” “estimate,” “expect,” “project,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” “will,” “target,” “forecast” and other words and terms of similar meaning in connection with any discussion of future operating or financial performance or business plans or prospects. Among the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially are the following: (1) worldwide economic and capital markets conditions; (2) competitive conditions and customer preferences; (3) foreign currency exchange rates and fluctuations in those rates; (4) the timing and acceptance of new product offerings; (5) the availability and cost of purchased components, compounds, raw materials and energy (including oil and natural gas and their derivatives) due to shortages, increased demand or supply interruptions (including those caused by natural and other disasters and other events); (6) the impact of acquisitions, strategic alliances, divestitures, and other unusual events resulting from portfolio management actions and other evolving business strategies, and possible organizational restructuring; (7) generating fewer productivity improvements than estimated; and (8) legal proceedings, including significant developments that could occur in the legal and regulatory proceedings described in the company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007 and its subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q (the “Reports”). Changes in such assumptions or factors could produce significantly different results. A further description of these factors is located in the Reports under “Risk Factors” in Part I, Item 1A (Annual Report) and in Part II, Item 1A (Quarterly Report). The information contained in this presentation is as of the date indicated. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements contained in this presentation as a result of new information or future events or developments. 3 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 4. Topics Of Discussion Update on 2008 finish 1 2009 scenario planning 2 Summary 3 Q&A 4 4 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 5. Topics Of Discussion Update on 2008 finish 1 2009 scenario planning 2 Summary 3 Q&A 4 5 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 6. Summary – Q3 Earnings Call (October 21, 2008) The 3M advantage – diversification of geographies, markets, products & technologies 106-year company history; proven ability to prosper during economic downturns Strong balance sheet and consistent cash flow Continuous assessment and rebalancing – More restructuring likely in slower growth markets – Investing prudently in under-penetrated businesses and geographic areas 2008 full-year financial expectations: – $5.40 to $5.48 per share – Operating margins 22.5% to 23% – Tax rate 31.5% to 32% – Cap-ex $1.3B to $1.4B *Excludes special items. Please refer to 3M’s October 21, 2008 press release for a complete list and explanation of the special items for the first nine months of 2008. 6 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 7. Q4 2008 Trends Rapid Deterioration In Business Activity As Quarter Progresses October – sales were a little soft, but profits were in-line with guidance – Organic local currency sales down 3% – Currency down 5% November – rapid volume slowdown, many businesses impacted – Organic local currency sales down 17% – Currency down 6% December – highly uncertain but expecting another month similar to November Customers Aggressively Responding To Economic Perfect Storm 7 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 8. 2008 EPS Update Q4 and FY ‘08 Expectations: 2008 Full Year EPS Q4 organic volume growth $5.40 - $5.48 $5.50 Was: -1% to -2% Q4 FX EPS impact $5.40 Was: flat to -$0.02 FY 2008 operating margin $5.30 Was: 22.5% to 23% FY 2008 Tax rate $5.20 Was: 31.5% to 32% $5.10 - $5.15 FY 2008 Cap-ex $5.10 $1.3B to $1.4B Q3 Earnings Call 10/21/08 *Excludes special items. Please refer to 3M’s October 21, 2008 press release for a complete list and explanation of the special items for the first nine months of 2008. 8 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 9. 2008 EPS Update Q4 and FY ‘08 Expectations: 2008 Full Year EPS Q4 organic volume growth $5.50 Was: -1% to -2% Now: -10% to -12% $5.40 Q4 FX EPS impact Was: flat to -$0.02 Organic Volume $5.30 FY 2008 operating margin -$0.22 to Was: 22.5% to 23% -$0.25 $5.20 FY 2008 Tax rate $5.10 - $5.15 Was: 31.5% to 32% $5.10 FY 2008 Cap-ex $1.3B to $1.4B Q3 Earnings Call 10/21/08 *Excludes special items. Please refer to 3M’s October 21, 2008 press release for a complete list and explanation of the special items for the first nine months of 2008. 9 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 10. 2008 EPS Update Q4 and FY ‘08 Expectations: 2008 Full Year EPS Q4 organic volume growth $5.50 Was: -1% to -2% Now: -10% to -12% $5.40 Q4 FX EPS impact Was: flat to -$0.02 Now: -$0.08 $5.30 FY 2008 operating margin Was: 22.5% to 23% $5.20 FX FY 2008 Tax rate -$0.08 Was: 31.5% to 32% $5.10 FY 2008 Cap-ex $1.3B to $1.4B Q3 Earnings Call 10/21/08 *Excludes special items. Please refer to 3M’s October 21, 2008 press release for a complete list and explanation of the special items for the first nine months of 2008. 10 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 11. 2008 EPS Update Q4 and FY ‘08 Expectations: 2008 Full Year EPS Q4 organic volume growth $5.50 Was: -1% to -2% Now: -10% to -12% $5.40 Q4 FX EPS impact Was: flat to -$0.02 Now: -$0.08 $5.30 FY 2008 operating margin Was: 22.5% to 23% $5.20 Now: 21.5% to 22.0% $5.10 - $5.15 FY 2008 Tax rate $5.10 Was: 31.5% to 32% Now: 31.0% to 31.5% FY 2008 Cap-ex Revised $1.3B to $1.4B (no change) 2008 EPS *Excludes special items. Please refer to 3M’s October 21, 2008 press release for a complete list and explanation of the special items for the first nine months of 2008. 11 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 12. Q4 2008 Restructuring Actions Continue To Aggressively Restructure The Business To Address Challenges Have reduced positions across all businesses and staffs – ≈1,800 internally announced – Another ≈500 before year-end; mostly international – More possible pending business conditions All geographies impacted somewhat but heavy focus on developed economies – U.S., Western Europe and Japan Rationalizing 10 manufacturing, technical and office facilities Aggregate Costs Of $215M (≈$0.22 Q4 Special Item) With 2009 Savings Of $225M 12 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 13. Topics Of Discussion Update on 2008 finish 1 2009 scenario planning 2 Summary 3 Q&A 4 13 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 14. 2009 Planning Mindset Adjusting To Low-Growth Economy In Short-Term While Maintaining Long-Term Growth Focus Cash optimization in highly uncertain world – planning conservatively and preserving cash – Capital expenditures < $1.2B  Disciplined A/R management – Tighter acquisition screens  Careful demand planning – Minimal share repurchase Facing into headwinds – Organic volume growth  Currency – Pension  Higher net interest expense Maximizing opportunities – Going after market share gains  Productivity programs – Restructuring  Raw materials/pricing – Deferring annual pay increases  Modifying working schedules Driving Sufficient Cost Reduction To Offset Volume Risk 14 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 15. 2009 Scenario Planning Organic volume – -3% to -7% Foreign currency – -6% to -7% Earnings-per-share – -3% to -12% Margins steady vs. 2008 Free cash flow will approximate net income, however pension and severance funding will be a wild card 15 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 16. WW IPI Forecasts For 2009 Source: Global Insight -0.4% 0% -0.4% Goldman Sachs UBS Global Insight Some Are Expecting A “V” Shaped Recovery – We Are Not Our Plan Assumes -2 % to -3% Planning For Softness Throughout 2009 16 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 17. Forecasting 09 Organic Volume Growth Learning From The Recession Of 2001-02 Quarterly % YOY Growth, 2000-03 During the 4 worst quarters of the 2001-02 economic slowdown: 1) Global IPI was down 3% 2) 3M organic volume was down 5% to 6% Notes:1) 3M data excludes divested pharmaceutical business; 2) economic data from Global Insight 17 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 18. We Have Been Experiencing A Slowing Economy For Some Time… • U.S. •Office retail • Telecom •Housing • Advertising •Auto OEM • Credit market crisis • Japan, Korea • Industrial • Economic slowdown • Western Europe spreads rapidly across industries U.S. Recession Started Q4 2007! (12/1/08) Organic Volume Growth …And We Expect To Come Out Faster On The Recovery 18 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 19. Forecasting 09 Organic Volume Growth Working The Model Sequentially…A Hypothetical ‘09 Progression Organic Volume Growth % 2% Q408e Q109e Q209e Q309e Q409e FY09e 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Possible Trough Ave Organic Volume Down 5% 19 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 20. Forecasting 09 Organic Volume Growth Working The Model Sequentially…A Hypothetical ‘09 Progression Organic Volume Growth % 2% Q408e Q109e Q209e Q309e Q409e FY09e 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Possible Trough Ave Organic Volume Down 7% 20 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 21. Forecasting 09 Organic Volume Growth Working The Model Sequentially…A Hypothetical ‘09 Progression Organic Volume Growth % 2% Q408e Q109e Q209e Q309e Q409e FY09e 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Range: -3% to -7% -10% Ave Organic Volume Down 3% Our Planning Headset Is Closer To The Upper End Of the Range 21 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 22. Industrial Production Forecast – Past And Future Expecting Wide Variations Of Growth Across Regions (Global Insight: Industrial Production, YOY percent change) Growth Is Slowing Everywhere, But There Is Still Growth To Be Had In Developing Markets 22 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 23. Emerging Markets A Bigger Factor Today Vs. 2001-02 And While Economic Growth Will Slow There In 2009, It Remains Robust 3M Sales To Emerging Market Industrial Production Growth % Countries $7.5B 20% China Brazil Central Eur/Balkans 15% India Russia 10% $2.7B 5% 0% Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 2001 2008e % of 3M 17% 30% Source: Global Insight Even In This Environment There Will Be Good Growth Opportunities Note: Emerging Markets = Central/East Europe + Middle East + APAC ex-Japan/ANZ + Latin America; economic data from Global Insight 23 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 24. Organic Volume Impact 2009 EPS Impact Organic volumes to be in the range of -3% to -7% Recognizing Q4 2008 organic volume @ -10% Developing economies expected to have positive growth albeit at lower rates Developed economies expected to be negative Managing developed economies for operating leverage and investing in developing economies to drive growth -$0.30 to -$0.70 24 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 25. Foreign Currency Step Change In Foreign Currency Rates Coincident With Credit Crisis Percent Change Foreign Currency A Significant Headwind In 2009 Note: currency mix based on Q3 2008 YTD weighted average sales 25 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 26. Foreign Currency Step Change In Foreign Currency Rates Coincident With Credit Crisis Percent Change Ave 2008 November Currencies Rates End Rates EUR 1.47 1.29 JPY 103.5 95.2 BRL 1.83 2.34 CAD .93 0.81 RMB 6.92 6.83 GBP 1.85 1.52 KRW 1123 1478 Foreign Currency A Significant Headwind In 2009 Note: currency mix based on Q3 2008 YTD weighted average sales 26 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 27. Foreign Currency Headwind 2009 EPS Impact Used spot rates as of November month-end $0.50 Tremendous volatility in rates over last couple of months Estimated 2009 sales impact in the range of -6% $0.25 to -7% -$0.45 toHedge approximately ½ of foreign currency -$0.50 exposures on a rolling 12-month basis $0.00 ($0.25) -$0.45 ($0.50) 27 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 28. Restructuring Proactively Reducing Structure In A Slower Growth World Continuously assessing and rebalancing structure 2009 EPS Impact $0.50 to meet business needs Actions to date: $0.25 to $0.30 – Q2 2008: ≈200 positions $0.25 – Q3 2008: ≈900 positions – Q4 2008: ≈2,300 positions $0.00 Consolidating facilities Aggressive actions in slower growth mature economies ($0.25) More restructuring likely in 2009 ($0.50) 28 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 29. Raw Materials And Selling Prices Raw Materials: 2009 EPS Impact In midst of rapid declines in many commodities; full benefit not expected until H2 2009 Commodities to trend down; more upside is $0.15 to $0.20 possible Raw materials represent ½ of COGS or approximately 25% to sales Selling prices: Focusing on maintaining 2008 price increases Drive opportunities to optimize price/value Category-defining brands a major strength Highly Fluid Environment But Net Upside in 2009 29 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 30. Productivity Continuing To Aggressively Reduce Costs And Improve Processes 2009 EPS Impact Reducing indirect costs – a $4B+ category Lean Six Sigma Continued supply chain improvements $0.20 to $0.25 Redesigning employee benefit programs G&A cost containment Deferring annual pay increases Modifying working schedules 30 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 31. Pension Expense Managing Through A Very Unique Market Environment Fully funded through Q3 2008 however Q4 2009 EPS Impact $0.50 market returns pressuring asset values Contributed $200M to U.S. plan in Q3 2008 Higher discount rate expected for year-end $0.25 liability measurement given current credit environment No mandatory funding obligation $0.00 Effective 2009, all new U.S. employees -$0.08 to -$0.12 participate exclusively in a new defined contribution plan ($0.25) ($0.50) 31 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 32. Net Interest Expense Expecting Higher Costs But Improving Liquidity And Certainty AA/Aaa credit rating 2009 EPS Impact Uninterrupted access to CP market; strong demand for 3M paper; CP maturities out to Feb ’09 Strong, consistent FCF; unused $1.5B credit facility Opportunistic bond issuances: Aug ‘08: $850M, 5 yr @ 4.375%; Oct ‘08: $800M, 3 yr @ 4.5% 2009 expense higher due to extending duration on debt portfolio (less reliance on commercial paper) & lower interest rates on cash & marketable securities Q3 ‘08 Capital Structure Long-Term Debt Maturities $B $B -$0.05 to -$0.10 Q4’08 includes $0.4B in puttable securities with longer final maturities Cash > CP 32 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 33. Putting It All Together $5.10 to $5.15 $0.20 to $0.25 $0.15 to $0.20 -$0.08 to $0.25 to -$0.12 -$0.05 to $0.30 -$0.10 -$0.30 to -$0.70 -$0.45 Productivity Efforts Cover The Volume Risk, But FX Too Much To Overcome *Excludes special items. 33 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 34. Putting It All Together 2009 EPS -3% to -12% $5.10 to $5.15 $0.20 to $0.25 EPS $0.08 Range $0.15 to $4.50 $0.20 -$0.08 to to $0.25 to -$0.12 -$0.05 to $0.30 $4.95 -$0.10 -$0.30 to -$0.70 -$0.45 Productivity Efforts Cover The Volume Risk, But FX Too Much To Overcome *Excludes special items. 34 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 35. Topics Of Discussion Update on 2008 finish 1 2009 scenario planning 2 Summary 3 Q&A 4 35 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 36. 2009 Planning Mindset Adjusting To Low-Growth Economy In Short-Term While Maintaining Long-Term Growth Focus Cash optimization in highly uncertain world – planning conservatively and preserving cash – Capital expenditures < $1.2B  Disciplined A/R management – Tighter acquisition screens  Careful demand planning – Minimal share repurchase Facing into headwinds – Organic volume growth  Currency – Pension  Higher net interest expense Maximizing opportunities – Going after market share gains  Productivity programs – Restructuring  Raw materials/pricing – Deferring annual pay increases  Modifying working schedules Driving Sufficient Cost Reduction To Offset Volume Risk 36 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 37. Questions and Answers 37 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting
  • 38. 2009 Outlook Meeting December 8, 2008 © 3M 2008. All Rights Reserved. 3M 2009 Outlook Meeting