The document provides an overview of CMC's business model and current market conditions for the 4th quarter of 2008. It summarizes CMC's key business segments, current projects, liquidity position, financial statistics, and discusses challenges in the global steel market including falling prices, reduced demand, and excess inventory. It analyzes performance and outlook for CMC's Americas and international operations.
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commercial metals 4thQ 2008
1. CMC – Business Model
Vertical Integration
Product Diversification
Global Geographic Dispersion
4th Quarter 2008
4th Quarter 2008
Current Market Conditions & Outlook Current Market Conditions & Outlook
Global Liquidity Crisis has Paralyzed the Steel Markets Up and Down Supply Chain Watchword is
Inventory Reduction and JIT
Vicious Downward Spiral of Confidence
Insufficient Funding Leads to Order Delays or
Lack of Demand Leaves no Viable Pricing
Postponements and Inevitable Claims
Mechanism for Ferrous Scrap
Campaigns Talk Down the Economy; Psychological
No Price Will Clear the Market, so Prices
Recession Sets in
Freefall
Supply (Inventories) Exceed Apparent (or Willing)
Demand
Scrap Backup at Dealer Level Including
Reduction in Material Purchasing Leads to Lower Prices
Nonferrous
Customers Holdback Looking for the Bottom
Ferrous Export Market Weak
Supply Exceeds Current Orders; Prices Lower
Cycle Repeats Itself
4 Quarter 2008
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4th Quarter 2008
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2. Current Market Conditions & Outlook North America
Restricting Recycling Flows Will Bring Lower
Market Conditions Difficult for Earnings Projection Prices, Lower Utilization
Expected 1st Quarter Earnings Range - $0.35 to $0.45 Mill Backlogs in Usual 40-50 Day Range, But
Rapidly Falling Prices and Inventory Levels will Result in Heavily Weighted Towards Highway Work
Significant LIFO Income; Anticipating Minimum $50 Million
Service Centers Living Hand to Mouth; Merchant
Pre-Tax for Quarter
Tons Off
Material Flow Between CMC Vertical Units Will be
Our Mills Will Take Downtime for Inventory Control
Emphasized
Fabrication Will do Better in Falling Market, But
Recycling Scaling Back Flow into Plants
Backlog is not Being Replaced as Quickly as
Americas Mills Volumes Down, But Margin Holds
Shipments
Americas Fab Find Relief From Margin Compression
Many Small Jobs (200-700 tons) Being Bid, But
Polish Results Drop as Finished Good Prices Drop Faster
Larger Jobs Scarce
than Scrap; Billet Exports End
International Marketing OK; Working Off Backlog
4th Quarter 2008 4th Quarter 2008
North America Europe / Middle East
Strong U.S. Dollar and Declining Freight Rates Bank Contagion Roils Region
Do Not Attract Imports Polish Economy Still Strong, But Price
Customers Do Not Want to be Exposed and Declines Squeeze Margins
Committed to Import Lead Times in Falling Good News is European Inventories are Low
Market
Arab States Have Significant Tonnage on the
Nonferrous Exports to China Nonexistent in Ground or in Transit
Current Market; Turn to European Outlets
Turkish Import Offers to U.S. Find No Buyers
Domestic OTCG Imports Still Good
Croatian Volume Building; Production is Key
Copper Tube Hurt by Rapid Price Declines
Raw Material Markets Still Strong
4th Quarter 2008 4th Quarter 2008
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3. Asia / Pacific Project Review
Arizona Micro Mill
Chinese Have the Foreign Reserves and the – All Required Permits Received in August
Central Control to Maintain 8-9% GDP – Expected Commissioning Date September 2009
– $155 Million Cost
– 280,000 Tons of Rebar
China Initiatives Include
Polish Wire Rod Block
– Lowering Taxes and Interest Rates
– First Bars Produced in October
– Increasing Export Subsidies – Will Significantly Upgrade Wire Rod and Coiled Rebar Offerings
– $40 Million Total Cost
– Increasing Public Housing Spending – 40-50,000 Additional Tons of Production in Fiscal 2009
– Fund Major Infrastructure Work Polish Flexible Section Mill
– Ground Broken; Construction Underway
– Curtail Steel Production – $190 Million
– 650,000 MT
Other Asian Markets Quiet; No Turnaround – Increased Product Range; Higher Quality Wire Rod / Larger Sizes
– Expected Commissioning January 2010
Until Chinese New Year
SAP
Australian Market Still Exhibiting Strength – Third Wave Rollout Now Complete
– First Rebar Fab Plants Now Running SAP
– Next Rollout – Two Domestic Mills and First Recycling Plants
4th Quarter 2008 4th Quarter 2008
CMC Steel Arizona CMC Steel Arizona
Mesa, Arizona Mesa, Arizona
Roughing Mill
Foundation
Melt Shop
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4. CMC Steel Arizona
Liquidity
Mesa, Arizona
$500 Million 10 Year Bond 7.3% Completed in
August
$400 Million Commercial Paper Program
Fab Shop $200 Million Domestic A/R Securitization
Cooling Bed
Agreement
$340 Million International A/R Sales Programs
Unsecured Bank Credit Lines
Favorable Debt Covenants
4th Quarter 2008 4th Quarter 2008
What Will Break the Cycle?
Government Intervention Programs Must
be Shown Effective
Get the Election Over With
Possible Capital / Infrastructure Stimulus
Restore Confidence
Statistics
4th Quarter 2008
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8. Americas Steel Mills
Americas Steel Mills
Average Selling Prices
Product Mix
Americas Americas
(Tons 000’s) ($ per Ton)
Mills Mills
673 CMC TX CMC AL CMC SC CMC AR
631
630
800 594
548 884
700 $950
878
600 863
$850
858
500 328 309 364 373 346 $750
400 $650
300
$550
200
220 285 266 300 285 $450
100
$350
0
4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
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Merchant Shapes, Billets & Rebar
Structurals
4th Quarter 2008 4th Quarter 2008
Americas Steel Mill Margins Electric Rates by Quarter
4th Quarter Comparisons
Americas Americas
Mills Mills
FY FY CMC-TX CMC-AL CMC-SC CMC-AR
2008 2007 Change 10.00
Avg. Selling Price $838 $591 247 9.00
Cents/KWH
8.00
Cost of Scrap Utilized $448 $239 209
7.00
6.00
Metal Margin $390 $352 38
5.00
Tons Shipped* 631 548 83
4.00
Billet Tons Shipped* 120 102 18 3.00
4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
*Tons in thousands
4th Quarter 2008 4th Quarter 2008
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9. Natural Gas Rates by Quarter Percentage of Manufactured Cost Per Ton
Average of Mills in Texas / Alabama / South Carolina
Americas Americas
Mills Mills
CMC-TX CMC-AL CMC-SC CMC-AR Year Year
20.00 Ended Ended
8/31/08 8/31/01
17.00
14.00 Material (Scrap)
$/MCF
60% 35%
Supplies
11.00
10% 15%
(Electrodes/Alloys)
8.00
Utilities (Electricity/Gas) 8% 13%
5.00
Maintenance 5% 8%
2.00
Labor 4% 8%
4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Depreciation 2% 6%
Other 11% 15%
4th Quarter 2008 4th Quarter 2008
Copper Tube Manufacturing Copper Tube Manufacturing
Average Prices Pounds Shipped
Americas Americas (in Millions)
Mills Mills
6.00
CY Avg – 4.34
LY Avg – 4.06
5.00
Selling 24
4.00 21
P r ic e P e r P o u n d
16.7
18
3.00 14.5
13.9
Cost 13.5 13.3
15 12.8
CY Avg – 3.38 11.7
11.5
LY Avg – 3.09 10.4
12
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4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
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12. Investor Information Forward-Looking Statements
This written and verbal presentation may contain forward-looking
Non-GAAP Financial Measures statements regarding the outlook for the Company's financial results
including net earnings, product pricing and demand, production rates,
and Regulation G interest rates, inventory levels, impact of acquisitions and general market
conditions. These forward-looking statements generally can be identified by
phrases such as the company or its management “expect,” “anticipates,”
This written and verbal presentation may use financial “believe,” “ought,” “should,” “likely,” “appears,” “projected,” “forecast,”
statement measures considered non-GAAP financial measures “outlook,” “will” or other words or phrases of similar impact. There is
inherent risk and uncertainty in any forward-looking statements. Variances
by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). will occur and some could be materially different from management's
In compliance with the SEC’s Regulation G, we have current opinion. Developments that could impact the Company's
expectations include solvency of financial institutions and their ability or
provided on our web site at willingness to lend, extent of government intervention and its effect on
capital markets, construction activity, difficulties or delays in the execution
www.cmc.com of construction contracts resulting in cost overruns or contract disputes,
metals pricing over which the Company exerts little influence, interest rate
changes, increased capacity and product availability from competing steel
a reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP measure and minimills and other steel suppliers including import quantities and pricing,
other information that may be of interest to investors. court decisions, industry consolidation or changes in production capacity or
utilization, the ability to integrate acquisitions into operations; global
factors including political and military uncertainties, credit availability,
currency fluctuations, energy and supply prices and decisions by
governments impacting the level of steel imports and pace of overall
economic activity, particularly China.
4th Quarter 2008 4th Quarter 2008
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