Hugh Grant, CEO of Citi, presented at a conference on December 2, 2008. He discussed forward-looking statements and provided an outlook for Monsanto, including opportunities for growth in seed and traits gross profit through 2012 by increasing yields globally. Key initiatives included expanding corn and soybean seed market share in the US and internationally, and launching new Bt and herbicide tolerant traits. Roundup volumes and prices were expected to remain strong through 2009 and 2012.
3. STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
Monsanto’s Growth Opportunity Lies at the Intersection of
Demand, Innovation and Execution
Monsanto’s Simple Philosophy on Opportunity:
YIELD
More demand requires more
INNOVATION
More yield requires more
GROWTH
More innovation delivers more
3
4. STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
Increasing Protein Demand, Coupled with Boost from Biofuels, Creates
Sustained Long-Term Grain Demand; Near-Term Inventories Re-Build
STATE OF AGRICULTURE:
STRETCHING SUPPLY
Yield Always Matters
WORLD CORN STOCKS-TO-USE RATIO1
► GLOBAL CORN STOCKS
ESTIMATED AT 50 DAYS
120% 900
STOCKS-TO-USE RATIO
► Global corn ending stocks-
800
100%
to-use ratio projected to be
M METRIC TONS
700
14 percent for 2008/09
80%
600
60%
► Stocks-to-use are below the
500
nearly 50-year average of
40%
24 percent and at ratio not
400
seen for almost 35 years
20% 300
0% 200
► Largest corn crops on
1964/1965
1968/1969
1970/1971
1972/1973
1974/1975
1976/1977
1978/1979
1980/1981
1982/1983
1984/1985
1986/1987
1988/1989
1990/1991
1992/1993
1994/1995
1996/1997
1998/1999
2000/2001
2002/2003
2004/2005
2005/2006
1966-1967
2008/2009P
record were produced in
2007 and 2008
1986/1987 2008/2009
1964/1965
► Production needs to be
GLOBAL CORN STOCKS-TO-USE1 sustained at 4% above this
year’s crop, and demand
GLOBAL CORN CONSUMPTION1
unchanged, to return to 24
percent
1. USDA PSD View database query for global corn
4
5. STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
Global Corn Production Per Acre Is Sub-Optimized Today,
Creating an Opportunity for Innovation
GLOBAL CORN PRODUCTION1: YIELD
CORE PRODUCTIVITY MEASURES AND EVALUATION
Boosting yield-per-
acre can make a
meaningful
CANADA difference in
EU 27
3M ACRES
supply-demand
136 BU/AC
500M BUSHELS 27M ACRES
90% HYBRID environment
U.S. 99 BU/AC
CHINA
2B BUSHELS
• If India, Mexico
90M ACRES
151 BU/AC 67M ACRES
MEXICO
13B BUSHELS 83 BU/AC
and Brazil moved
6B BUSHELS
18M ACRES
25% HYBRID to 100 bushel per
INDIA
48 BU/AC
BRAZIL
900M BUSHELS
acre yields, they
20M ACRES
36M ACRES 45% HYBRID
75% HYBRID 32 BU/AC could produce
58 BU/AC 700M BUSHELS
2B BUSHELS
nearly 4 billion
additional
ARGENTINA
bushels of corn
10M ACRES
111 BU/AC
900M BUSHELS
annually – equal
to total world
Optimization of yield per acre
corn exports in
2007
Poor/Subsistence Sub-Optimized Optimized
5
1. Source is USDA FAS and internal estimates.
6. FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
Yield and Innovation Create the Runway of Growth to 2012
for Seeds & Traits and for Monsanto as a Whole
GROSS PROFIT COMMITMENT: 2009 OUTLOOK
2003-2012F
$9.5- ►Order pace for U.S.
$9.75B DEKALB corn within
$10,000
SEEDS & GENOMICS GROSS PROFIT
band of prior two years
AG PRODUCTIVITY GROSS PROFIT
$7.2- ►Order pace for
$8,000
$7.4B
GP (in millions)
branded U.S. soybean
exceeds pace of the
two previous seasons
~2.25X
$6,000
2007
►Latin America strong
BASELINE
$4.2B in the first quarter for
$4.20- both seed and traits
$4,000
$4.40 and Roundup;
ONGOING monitoring credit for
EPS
second season in Brazil
$2,000
►Roundup pricing and
volumes on track with
$0
$2.3-$2.4B gross profit
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2012F estimates for this
BASELINE business
6
7. CORN SEED & TRAITS
Corn Gross Profit Builds on Expanding Leadership in Branded
Corn Seed, Launch of SmartStax and International Traits
2012 MILESTONE TARGETS
CORN SEED & TRAITS
► Grow U.S. DEKALB corn share to 30-34
GROSS PROFIT PROGRESSION share points; grow ASI to ~15 share
points
► Grow international branded corn share
in key countries by 1-2 share points
$ in millions $4,500- $4,600
annually
$2,800
► Launch SmartStax in the U.S. in 2010;
$2,174
$1,721
target market of 60-65M1 acres
► Launch YieldGard Corn Borer/
Roundup Ready corn in Argentina in
2007 2008 2009F 2012F
2009; target market of 7M1 acres
GLOBAL GROSS PROFIT SPLIT
► Launch YieldGard Corn Borer in Brazil
in 2009; target market of 15-20M1 acres
► Advance drought-tolerant corn I
30%
30%
U.S.
through Phase 4
Intl.
70% 70%
2012F
2008
7
1. Target market defined as acres where technology is applicable, not necessarily a projection of acres penetrated by 2012.
8. CORN SEED
Preliminary Yield Trial Results Reinforce Yield Advantage of
DEKALB Seed in the U.S.
2008 PRELIMINARY U.S. COMPETITIVE CORN
YIELD COMPARISON: DEKALB
215
210 DEKALB
GEOGRAPHY: U.S.
(APPROXIMATE DIFFERENCES)
205
207
COMPETITORS
Grow 2 Share
2009
200
OBJECTIVE:
Points
199
195 198
2008 PERFORMANCE UPDATE
BUSHELS/ACRE
196
190 193
• In > 12,800 comparisons, 191 190 189 189
185
DEKALB out-yields
184
competitive best by 180
182
9.8 bu/acre on average 175
• On 60 percent of the
170 171
acres planted, DEKALB
165
has 8-12 bu/acre
160
advantage
155
Source: Preliminary 2008
150
Monsanto and third party
100 RM 105 RM 110 RM 115 RM
90/95 RM
head-to-head comparisons Overall
RELATIVE MATURITIES (DAYS)►
of 5 leading DEKALB
hybrids within each RM zone
COMPARISONS: >840 >2,550 >670 >4,370 >4,350 >12,800
to national competitor
products containing similar
APPROXIMATE BU/AC
crop protection traits within 2
12.4 11.4 1.0 11.0 8.4 9.8
ADVANTAGE:
RM days as of November
14, 2008. Weighted
average calculated to 15%
moisture.
8
9. SOYBEAN SEED & TRAITS
Launch of Roundup Ready 2 Yield Soybeans Key to Long-
Term Growth of Leading Soybean Platform
2012 MILESTONE TARGETS
SOYBEAN SEED & TRAITS
► Controlled commercial release of
GROSS PROFIT PROGRESSION Roundup Ready 2 Yield on 1-2M
acres in the U.S. in 2009
$ in millions
► Large-scale launch of Roundup
~$1,200
Ready 2 Yield on 5-6M acres in 2010;
$725 ~$700
$588
target market of 45-55M1 acres
► Grow Asgrow brand to 25 share
points in the U.S. by 2012
2007 2008 2009F 2012F
GLOBAL GROSS PROFIT SPLIT ► Increase Brazil Roundup Ready
soybean penetration to 80 percent by
2012 in anticipation of launch of
15%
insect-protected Roundup Ready 2
20%
Yield soybeans
U.S.
Intl.
80% 85%
2012F
2008
9
1. Target market defined as acres where technology is applicable, not necessarily a projection of acres penetrated by 2012.
10. COTTON SEED & TRAITS
Cotton Seed and Traits Focused on Continued Upgrade to
Second Generation Technology in U.S. and India
COTTON SEED & TRAITS 2012 MILESTONE TARGETS
GROSS PROFIT PROGRESSION ► Expand second-generation trait
penetration in U.S. Deltapine brand
$ in millions
~$500
► Expand Bollgard II acres in India;
currently 25 percent penetrated in 18-
$313 ~$300
$267
20M acre opportunity
► Grow U.S. Deltapine brand share
from current share of 41 percent to
2007 2008 2009F 2012F ~50 percent by 2012
GLOBAL GROSS PROFIT SPLIT ► Grow Brazil branded cotton share by
10 points to 31 percent; grow India to
12 percent share
30%
45%
U.S.
55%
Intl.
70%
2012F
2008
10
11. VEGETABLE SEEDS
Vegetable Platform Focused on Execution and Growth To
Generate 65 Percent Margins by 2012
2012 MILESTONE TARGETS
VEGETABLE SEEDS
► Integrate De Ruiter protected culture
GROSS PROFIT PROGRESSION seeds
► Continue margin expansion toward
$ in millions goal of 65 percent by 2012
~$750
Price existing products to value
~500
$394
$267 Launch new products with increased
value
Expand high-margin protected-
2007 2008 2009F 2012F
culture segment
GLOBAL GROSS PROFIT SPLIT
► Accelerate new product launches via
use of molecular markers
20% 20%
U.S.
Intl.
80%
80%
2012F
2008
11
12. ROUNDUP
Increased 2009 and 2012 Targets for Roundup Reflect
Sustainability Even As Supply-Demand Comes Into Balance
ROUNDUP AND OTHER GLYPHOSATE-BASED HERBICIDES:
Roundup and Other
BRANDED AND NON-BRANDED TRENDS – 2004-2008
Glyphosate-Based
Herbicides
300 Branded
2009 Forecast
Non-Branded
GROSS PROFIT TARGET: $2.3-$2.4B 250
Global Volume (in gallons)
Above
BRANDED PRICE BAND
(PER GALLON FORECAST): $16-$18
200
2012 Forecast
GROSS PROFIT TARGET: $1.9B
150
BRANDED PRICE BAND
$16-$18
(PER GALLON FORECAST):
100
50
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
GLOBAL VOLUME
209M 215M 235M 252M 257M
(GALLONS):
BRANDED PRICE BAND
$11-$13 $11-$13 $11-$13 >$11-$13 ~$20
(PER GALLON):
TOTAL ROUNDUP AND
OTHER GLYPHOSATE-BASED $703M $637M $648M $854M $2.0B
HERBICIDES GROSS PROFIT:
12
13. USES OF CASH
Over 70% of the $2.8 Billion of Operating Cash Generated
Invested in Acquisitions, Technology and Capital in FY08
USES OF CASH
PERCENT OF $2.8B OPERATING CASH USED BY CATEGORY: FY2008
2%
Cash Generation
13%
$772M
FY2008 Free Cash Flow:
37%
FY2009 Free Cash
~$1.8B
Flow Forecast1:
15%
CASH PRIORITIES
• Bolster direct returns to
shareowners
• Support commercial growth
through capital spending
• Invest in future growth through
33%
technology collaborations
Acquisitions and
• Expand the core through strategic
Technology Collaborations
acquisitions
Capital Spending
Dividends
Share Repurchase
1. Estimate does not contemplate strategic acquisitions.
Other
13
14. R&D PIPELINE
R&D Engine Is Poised to Launch Average of One Game-
Changing Technology Every Other Year Through Mid-Decade
R&D PIPELINE: ADVANCED GAME-CHANGING TECHNOLOGIES
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TO MID-DECADE
Roundup Drought- Nitrogen-
SmartStax
Ready 2 Yield Tolerant Corn Utilization
Soybeans Family1 Corn Family1
• Second-gen soybean • All-in-one corn trait • Value likely in improved • Targets ways to use
trait platform platform yield under stress and nitrogen more efficiently
potential for water
• China import approval • On track for 2010 launch
replacement
received September – Submitted for
2008 regulatory review and
refuge reduction
• On track for 2009
release; 2010 full launch
SUPERIOR, NE - FIELD TRIALS – 2007 FARM PROGRESS SHOW – 2007
WITH GENE
CONTROL HYBRID
FARM PROGRESS SHOW – 2007 (94 BU/AC)
(76 BU/AC)
1. Part of the Monsanto-BASF Yield and Stress R&D Collaboration
14
15. SOYBEAN SEED & TRAITS
Roundup Ready 2 Yield Soybeans Is One Of the Most-
Anticipated Launches Because of Step-Change In Yield
NEW: ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD SOYBEANS:
SECOND-GENERATION WEED CONTROL OPPORTUNITY
Near-Isoline Comparisons:
12% Roundup Ready 2 Yield vs. Roundup Ready
% Yield Increase over
11%
10% 9%
Roundup Ready
9%
8%
7% 7%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 4 YEAR
AVERAGE
Roundup Ready 2 Yield soybeans yield 7 to 11 percent higher than Roundup Ready
soybeans based on 73 Monsanto field trials from 2004-2007
Seamless price set at ~$70 per acre for seed, trait and treatment, a $20 per acre premium
over first generation Roundup Ready; result of 3-5 bu yield advantage
15
16. CORN SEED & TRAITS
Monsanto’s Leadership Continues With Next Game-
Changer in Corn; SmartStax to Reset Trait Platform
SMARTSTAX
COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY
LAUNCH TARGET: 2010
TARGET ACRE
60-65M
OPPORTUNITY:
VALUE PROPOSITION
2008 trials evaluating SmartStax in elite
germplasm, quantifying sources of
potential on-farm yield advantages:
Improved
1-2%
consistency:
SmartStax STATUS
Primary pests
Improved
• Precedent established with U.S. EPA on
consistency: 1-2%
dual-mode-of-action traits:
Secondary pests REFUGE
• YieldGard VT PRO received reduced
REDUCTION
Reduced refuge 3-6% STRATEGY: refuge in Southern geographies
• Bollgard II natural refuge in cotton
5-10%
• On track for 2010 launch
•
COMMERCIAL All components have U.S. approvals
TRACK: • Final regulatory package with 5% refuge
request submitted in June 2008
16
17. R&D PIPELINE
2007 Dryland Field Tests of Lead Drought Event Offers Visual
Evidence of Increased Yield In Stressed Conditions
2007 FIELD TESTING SHOWS VISUAL
R&D Pipeline
PROOF OF YIELD IMPROVEMENT
Drought-Tolerant Corn Family:
SUPERIOR, NE - FIELD TRIALS – 2007
Lead Project
HIT Project Phase 3
PROJECT CONCEPT:
Drought-tolerance family aimed at
providing consistent yield and
buffering against effects of water
limitations
VALUE:
LAUNCH-COUNTRY
55M
ACRES1:
2020 VALUE2: $300-$500M
SOURCES OF VALUE:
Improved yield
Targeting 6-10% yield
1
CONTROL HYBRID WITH GENE
improvement in water-stress
environments (76 BU/AC) (94 BU/AC)
1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at
Water stress exposure during different stages of development
Monsanto's 2007 market share in respective crops
can have significant effect on corn yield; Monsanto’s lead
2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country
drought-tolerance trait shows a significant yield advantage
in year 2020
compared with controls under drought stress
17
PART OF THE MONSANTO BASF YIELD AND STRESS R&D COLLABORATION
18. SUMMARY
Monsanto’s Growth Opportunity Lies at the Intersection of
Demand, Innovation and Execution
Monsanto’s Simple Philosophy on Opportunity:
YIELD
More demand requires more
INNOVATION
More yield requires more
GROWTH
More innovation delivers more
18