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EEI Conference




    C. John Wilder
Chief Executive Officer

  November 8, 2005
Safe Harbor Statement
This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to various
risks and uncertainties. Discussion of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual
results to differ materially from management's current projections, forecasts, estimates
and expectations is contained in the company's SEC filings. In addition to the risks and
uncertainties set forth in the company's SEC filings, the forward-looking statements in
this release could be affected by the ability of the company to implement the initiatives
that are part of its operational improvement and cost reduction program and financial
and growth strategies, and the terms under which the company executes those
initiatives, the ability of the company to execute its share repurchase program and the
actions of its board of directors with respect to future dividends and other cash
distributions to shareholders, which will be based upon a number of factors, including
the company’s profit levels, operating cash flow levels and capital requirements as well
as financial and other business conditions existing at the time.



Regulation G
This presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of
these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure is included in the
appendix of the printed version of the slides and the version included on the company’s
website at www.txucorp.com under Investor Resources/Presentations.



                                                                                            1
Today’s Agenda


                        •   The TXU Turnaround
      TXU Today
      TXU Today         •   Core Strategic Principles




                        •   TXU Power
    Business Unit
    Business Unit       •   TXU Retail/Wholesale
      Strategies
      Strategies        •   TXU Electric Delivery



                        •   Natural Gas
                        •   Heat Rate
  Risk/Market Outlook
  Risk/Market Outlook
                        •   Capital Allocation Principles



                        •   Financial Outlook And Growth
      Financial
      Financial         •   Financial Sensitivities
      Principles
      Principles        •   Long-Term Sources And Uses Of Cash
                                                                 2
January 2004: TXU Was Challenged By The Transition To Its New
Competitive Environment
                                            Too Much Debt: Debt/Total Enterprise Value
Poor Returns: Annual TRS
                                            Jan 04; Percent
Jan 94 - Jan 04; Percent
                                                                                 43%
                                                                                 43%
                                     981%              65
                        11.9

                                                                     37


          1.1

                     Top quartile                                Top quartile
                                                      TXU
          TXU
                    (S&P Electric)                              (S&P Electric)

Costly Operations: Nuclear Oper. Costs      Poor Service: Average Speed To Answer
03; $/MWh                                   03; Seconds

                                     18%                                         96%
                                     18%                                         96%
                                                      280
          12.0
                         9.8




                                                                     12

          TXU       Best in class                     TXU       Best in class          3
To Compete In This New Environment, TXU Designed And Is Executing A
Three Phase Improvement Plan…
                                              Today
                                                                 Phase 3:
                                                               Ongoing Value
                                                                 Creation



                                               Phase 2:
                                       Performance Improvement

                               • Identified $1.3 billion in performance improvements over
                                 3 years
                               • Identified $900 million in year one – outperforming plan

                     Phase 1:
           Risk And Return Restructuring

   • Sold disadvantaged businesses
   • Quickly reallocated $14 billion to repair balance sheet
   • Reduced major risks
                                                                                        4
…The Execution Of The Turnaround Plan Has Created Significant Value
For TXU Shareholders By Focusing On Three Key Levers
                                                                                     Based on price as
 Gains Across The Board: TXU Value Creation                                          of November 4th
 05; $/share
                                                                                           94
                                                                     5           5
                                                          7                                        276%
                                                                                                    276%
                                                                                           20
                                               3
                                   19

                         4                                                                 23
             26

                                                                                           26
    25

                                                                                           25

   Stock      Share     Hedge    Commodity Gas plant    Baseload    CGE cost      Other    Stock
   price   repurchases removal    increases improve-    capacity   reductions     costs    Price
    Feb     and asset                         ments      factor                 (bad debt, Today
     04       sales                         (dispatch                           sourcing,
                                            and cost)                             SG&A)



         Portfolio      Risk                                  Performance
     management and management                                management
     capital allocation

                       Total value creation is greater than $15 billion
                        Total value creation is greater than $15 billion                                   5
TXU’s Strategy Reflects Core Beliefs About What It Takes To Win In The
Energy Business

                   Principle                                    Rationale
                                               • Energy markets will continue to go through
                                                 cycles; only assets with a structural cost
      Long-Term Success In The Energy            advantage will win over the long term

 1    Sector Is Based On Having Access
                                               • Structurally advantaged positions provide
      To Structurally Advantaged Assets          better opportunities over the long term


                                               • Superior operations and performance
                                                 management can drive a 200 basis-point
                                                 increase in ROIC

 2    An Industrial Skill Set Is Crucial For
                                               • Many companies in the sector have not
         Continual High Performance
                                                 transformed their performance level to
                                                 reflect a competitive environment (delta
                                                 between median and top quartile is 10-20%)
                                               • Just like in other capital intensive sectors,
                                                 scale is necessary to standardize
                                                 operations, gain critical mass, and extract

 3    Long-Term Winners Must Leverage            rent from suppliers
      Not Only Scale But “Quality Scale”
                                               • “Quality scale” is needed to gain access to
                                                 advantaged new build, and gain competitive
                                                 and regulatory leadership
                                                                                                 6
Principle 1: TXU’s Core Businesses Are Structurally Advantaged Across
The Entire Value Chain

                               TXU Competitive Business                       TXU Regulated Business



                                                                                Transmission and
             Generation                                      Retail
                                      Wholesale
                                                                                   Distribution

             TXU Power             TXU Wholesale       TXU Energy               TXU Electric Delivery

             2nd largest U.S.      Access to largest   Large scale              6th largest U.S.
             deregulated output                        competitive retailer
                                   ERCOT generation                             transmission &
                                   fleet                                        distribution company
             Access to low cost                        Loyal customer
             lignite reserves                          base
                                   Access to largest                            Top quartile costs and
Structural
                                   ERCOT retail                                 reliability
advantages   63 TWh of                                 Strong brand
                                   position
                                                       recognition
             baseload                                                           High growth NERC
                                                                                region (2.0%)
             production in a gas   Incumbent
                                                       Superior service
             on the margin         expertise in
                                                                                Efficient capital
             market                regulatory
                                                                                recovery
                                   advocacy and
                                   market design                                No commodity
                                                                                exposure
                                                                                No retail customers

05E EBITDA                          $2.6 - 2.7 B                                   $1.2 B
                                                                                                        7
Principle 2: An Industrial Skill Set Will Help Drive Superior Returns
Throughout The Cycle




Operational Excellence                                              Risk/Return Mindset
                                      Market Leadership

                                 • Superior customer service
• Top decile throughput                                           • Strict capital allocation
                                   and brand management             discipline
• World class industrial
                                 • Customer segmentation
  production costs                                                • Risk/return restructuring
                                   and pricing
• Industry leading reliability                                    • Commodity risk
                                 • Distinctive commodity            management
• Lean corporate SG&A
                                   sourcing


                                 Performance Management
                                 •   High performance culture
                                 •   Balanced cascading scorecards
                                 •   Employee development
                                 •   Incentives linked to key value drivers
                                                                                                8
Principle 3: Multi-Market Leadership Is Crucial As Demonstrated By
Similarities Between The E&P Sector And The Power Sector…

 Characteristic            E&P              Power Generation                 Delivery
                   • Exploration and      • Power marketing         • Regulated model makes
                     development driven     constrained to regional   every transmission region
   Multi-local       by local geology and   transmission grids        different
                     infrastructure
                   • Minimum efficient     • Minimum efficient       • T&D companies can often
     Capital         investment > $1         investment > $750         invest up to 10% of their
                     billion                 million                   market cap in annual
    intensive
                                                                       capex
                   • Oil/gas price cycles • Power price cycle        • Regulated returns cycle
                     driven by investment   driven by gas price        based on interest rate
                     conduct, declining     volatility, fuel price     cycle
     Cyclical        economics and          volatility, demand
                     demand cyclicality     growth, investment
                                            conduct
                   • Country regimes     • State/federal             • All capex and rate
  Importance of      define development    regulators approve          structures must be
     regulatory      rules and economics   development and             approved by local/federal
                                           competitive market          regulators
   relationships
                                           rules




                                                                                                   9
...And Looking At The Characteristics Of The Most Successful E&P
Companies…                                                Actual E&P
                                                                                                                                                 Companies
      Shareholder Value Creation (SVC)…                                                           …has been driven by scale and quality of scale
      91-01; $ billions
                                                                                                     High                                              A
       A                                                             61
                                                                                                                                                   B
                                                                                                                                               D
       B                                                             61                                                     E

                                                                                    Scale:
       C                                                     25                                                                                        C
                                                                                                                    G
                                                                                     Equity
                                                                                     Cap
       D                                                   21
                                                                                                                        F

                                                                                                                                  H
       E                                            7

                                                                                                     Low
       F                                            6
                                                                                                              Low                                            High
                                                                                                                                Quality of Scale:
       G                                          0
                                                                                                                                 Percent of value in
                                                                                                                                 “Market Leading”
       H                                 -5
                                                                                                                                 positions1



                                                                                                                                                                10
    “Market Leading” positions defined as having greater than 15% investment share in a basin with PVI > 2.
1
…The Winning Strategy In The Power Sector Will Require The
Combination Of Scale And Quality Of Scale

 Key Principle       Competitive Advantages                           TXU Application
                    • Standardization of operating           • Applying TXU Operating System
                      practices                                across larger portfolio of assets

                    • Ability to take part in needed large   • Taking part in infrastructure build out
      Scale           capital investments                      without “betting the company”

                    • Ability to extract excess rents from • Leveraging bulk purchases to reduce
                      equipment suppliers                    equipment supplier costs and increase
                                                             returns
                    • Better access to future                • Taking advantage of sites like Oak
                      development opportunities                Grove for new build

                    • Providing competitive leadership       • Ensuring capital is invested
 Quality of scale     and capital discipline                   appropriately in needed infrastructure

                    • Providing regulatory leadership        • Advocating that market rules (e.g.,
                                                               Nodal) develop to ensure fair
                                                               competition


                 In the E&P sector, the combination of both factors was
                  In the E&P sector, the combination of both factors was
                   needed to drive significant value creation over time
                    needed to drive significant value creation over time
                                                                                                         11
Scale Is Needed To Take A Meaningful Part In The Next Infrastructure
Build Out
                                                                        Project As Percent
             Major Project Capex            Equity Market Cap           Of Market Cap
             $ billions                     $ billions                  Percent
                                   Exxon                        370       1.1
Deepwater
GOM
development                4       BP                     233             1.7
(e.g.,
Thunderhorse)
                                   CVX              124                     3.2




                                               47                                 6.3
                                   Exelon

2000 MW                3           Dominion 27                                          11.1
coal plant

                                              24                                         12.5
                                   TXU



   While E&P leaders have the scale to take the risk of major new build projects, in the
   While E&P leaders have the scale to take the risk of major new build projects, in the
           deregulated power sector new build projects represent major bets
            deregulated power sector new build projects represent major bets
                                                                                                12
TXU Electric Delivery’s Aspiration Is To Establish A Winning Position in
ERCOT/SPP
                                                             High                 Winning
                        Scale: Net T&D plant in service in                        Strategy           Actual Delivery
                                                                                                     Companies
                                   ERCOT/SPP



                                                                                       TXU




                                                             Low
                                                                    Low                 High


                                  Quality of Scale: Percent of total assets in “Market Leading” positions1
        Most delivery companies lack scale, despite some quality positions in aaparticular state
         Most delivery companies lack scale, despite some quality positions in particular state
        While aacouple of players have established leadership positions, none has taken aa
         While couple of players have established leadership positions, none has taken
        leading position across multiple regions
         leading position across multiple regions
                                                                                                                  13
    “Market leading” defined as percent of state T&D assets >30%.
1
TXU Power’s Aspiration Is To Follow The “Regional Market Leader”
Strategy And Replicate Its Quality Scale Position In Other Deregulated
Markets
                                                                 High

                           Scale: Total merchant generation
                                                                                                          Winning
                                                                                                                             Actual Power
                                                                                                          Strategy
                                                                                                                             Companies




                                                                                                                TXU




                                                                 Low
                                                                        Low                                     High


                                                              Quality of Scale: Percent of value in “Market Leading” positions1
        No deregulated company has been able to establish “quality scale” in multiple markets
         No deregulated company has been able to establish “quality scale” in multiple markets
        There are aanumber of companies that have high quality positions but lack the scale to
         There are number of companies that have high quality positions but lack the scale to
        extract “Market Leader” value
         extract “Market Leader” value
                                                                                                                                            14
    “Market Leader” defined as solid fuel TWh >10% of NERC region merchant TWh.
1
Today’s Agenda


                        •   The TXU Turnaround
      TXU Today
      TXU Today         •   Core Strategic Principles




                        •   TXU Power
    Business Unit
    Business Unit       •   TXU Retail/Wholesale
      Strategies
      Strategies        •   TXU Electric Delivery



                        •   Natural Gas
                        •   Heat Rate
  Risk/Market Outlook
  Risk/Market Outlook
                        •   Capital Allocation Principles



                        •   Financial Outlook And Growth
      Financial
      Financial         •   Financial Sensitivities
      Principles
      Principles        •   Long-Term Sources And Uses Of Cash
                                                                 15
TXU Power Has A Structurally Advantaged Portfolio In A Market With
Strong Fundamentals…
                                                                  ERCOT Average Implied Heat Rate
   Large Portfolio
   05; TWh of deregulated generation                              04; MMBtu/MWh              Gas fleet provides
                                                                                                                                 shaping and ancillary
                                                                 24
     178                                                                                                                         services
                                                                         Solid fuel capacity
                                                                 21      provides low cost
                                                                 18      baseload power
                                                                                                                        Gas
                                                                 15                                                  (10.2 GW)
                                                                 12
                 62   62                                                     Lignite
                             46                                   9 Nuclear (5.8 GW)
                                  46   44   40   37    30           (2.3
                                                                  6 GW)                                TXU units



                                                                  3
     EXC TXU          NRG/   D    PPL EME   FE   AYE   ETR                  10         20     30      40           50     60        70     80
                                                                                                  Cumulative GWs
                      TGN
Source: Platts


                                                                   Low Coal Prices1
     Robust Wholesale Power Prices
                                                                   05; $/MMBtu
     05; $/MWh
                                                                                                                                              4.0
       75                                                                                                                            3.8
                                                                                                                          3.5
                                                                                                                   3.5
                 65 61
                       60 56
                             54 54 53 52 50                                                         2.6
                                                                                            2.3
                                                                                 2.1
                                                                      1.7




     NPCC   ERCOT  WECC    SERC    MRO                              MAPP                ECAR                   FRCC                 MAAC
        FRCC    MAAC   SPP    MAIN    ECAR                                     TXU                 WECC                  SERC                MAIN
                                                                                                                                                         16
Source: Platts                                                   Emissions-adjusted.
                                                             1
Based On Core Beliefs About Value Creation, TXU Power Has Designed A
Bottom-Up Business Unit Strategy


                          TXU Power



                                     Gain Scale Outside        The ultimate
                                                                The ultimate
   Continue To Strengthen The
                                       Of ERCOT And            goal is to
                                                                goal is to
         ERCOT Position
                                Build Market Leader Position   develop
                                                                develop
                                                               sustainable
                                                                sustainable
    Leverage TXU Operating                                     competitive
                                                                competitive
                                 Scale TXU Operating
    System to continue to                                      positions in
                                                                positions in
                                 System to improve 3rd
    drive increased value                                      multiple markets
                                                                multiple markets
                                 party assets
    from Texas baseload fleet

                                 Leverage creative
    Take advantage of
                                 transactional solutions
    existing sites (Sandow,
                                 with counterparties who
    Oak Grove) to add new
                                 share our vision
    capacity in Texas

                                 Develop deeper multi-
                                 market wholesale
                                 capabilities                                  17
In Coal Generation, TXU’s Goal Is To Redefine High Performance
Utilization While Simultaneously Achieving High Performance Costs
    Capacity Factor For US National Coal Fleet1 (n=225) O&M For Non-Scrubbed Coal Fleet2 (n=160)
    02-04; Percent                                      02-04; $/KW-year
                                                                                                                17.0         21.0               25.7       32.3
                82.1         76.2             68.7              58.6
                                                                                                   100
    100
                08
                                                                                                     90
       90         05
                    03
                                                                                                     80
       80
                                                                                                     70
       70
                                                                                                     60
       60
                                                                                                     50
       50
                                                                                                     40
       40
                                                                                                                                                 05 03
                                                                                                     30
       30                                                                                                                      08
                                                                                                     20
       20
       10                                                                                            10
         0                                                                                              0
               1st Quartile           3rd Quartile                                                            1st Quartile                         3rd Quartile
                                                  4th Quartile
                           2nd Quartile                                                                                            2nd Quartile                4th Quartile
                   Plant                05       08 EBITDA improvement                                                 Plant              05      08    EBITDA improvement
                   Total             90%       92%                         $69M                                        Total              $26     $21                $30M


      TXU Power is driving increased production and cost reduction via the Operating System
       TXU Power is driving increased production and cost reduction via the Operating System
    Sample set includes all coal plants > 450 MWs.
1
                                                                                                                                                                              18
    Sample set includes all coal plants > 450 MWs, 2002-2004 non-scrubbed coal plants. TXU plants normalized for scrubbing & fuel type.
2
The Goal In Nuclear Is To Replicate Top Fleet Performance At A Single
Plant

                       Making Progress: Capacity Factor                                  More Productive: Non-Fuel O&M
                       02-04; Percent                                                    02-04; $/kW
                           95.4
                                                                         95.1                    101
                                                                                                        94
                                                                                                              89
                                                                                           79

                                                          92.6

                                           91.3




                        Exelon TXU                       TXU TXU                         Exelon TXU TXU TXU
                        Large 03-05                      06-08 08-10                     Large 03-05 06-08 08-10
                        Plants1                                                          Plants1
                                          Closing the gap on capacity factor and cost will have
                                           Closing the gap on capacity factor and cost will have
                                                  ~$120 million upside relative to 03-05
                                                   ~$120 million upside relative to 03-05
                                                                                                                         19
    Exelon large plants include Byron, Braidwood, Lasalle, Limerick, and Peach Bottom.
1
TXU Has Access To Two Development Opportunities In Texas…
                                                                                            Oak Grove Steam Electric Station
           Sandow Unit 5
                                                                                            Robertson County, Texas
           Rockdale, Texas




                                                                                            Key Statistic
             Key Statistic
             Installed Capacity (MW)                                              600       Installed Capacity (MW)                1,720
             Technology                                                          CFB        Technology                            SCPC
             Configuration                                                       2X1        Configuration                           2X2
             Primary Fuel                                                     Lignite       Primary Fuel                          Lignite
                                                                        LI/ SNCR1
             SO2 and NOX Controls                                                                                            FGD/SCR2
                                                                                            SO2 and NOX Controls

                                                                                            Key Milestones
             Key Milestones
                                                                                            Air Permit                        In-Process
             Air Permit                                                  Complete
                                                                                            Begin Construction        2 mos. after permit
             Resume Construction                                            April 06
                                                                                            Commercial Operation         June 09/Dec 09
             Commercial Operation                                            Oct 08


    LI refers to Limestone Injection; SNCR refers to Selective Non-Catalytic Reduction.
1
                                                                                                                                            20
    FGD refers to Flue Gas Desulphurization; SCR refers to Selective Catalytic Reduction.
2
…That Deliver Strong Returns With A Strong Expected Hedged Position…
Sandow 5 – 600 MW                       Oak Grove – 1,720 MW
06E-10E; $ millions                     06E-10E; $ millions


                                                         06 07    08 09 10
               06 07    08 09 10

                                         EBITDA                      165 575
EBITDA                  45 165 160

                                         Net income                   30 285
Net income              15 70 70

                                         Capex          260 740 650 250 15
Capex         230 265 165       5   5
Est. hedged                              Est. hedged
output-%                75 75 75         output-%                     75 75




       PV/I = 1.5                                 PV/I = 1.7
        PV/I = 1.5                                 PV/I = 1.7
       IRR = 11%                                  IRR = 14.2%
        IRR = 11%                                  IRR = 14.2%
       Cash payback = 99years                     Cash payback = 88years
        Cash payback = years                       Cash payback = years



                                                                               21
…Based On The Ability To Drive High Performance Across All Aspects Of
The Project
Respectable Returns: Oak Grove Project Economics - NPV
05; $ billions

                                                                                                1.7
                                                                                  0.4
                                                                   0.1
                                                      0.7


                                          0.3
                              0.3
                 (0.1)

              Plant value Compression   Reduction    Access to   Reduction in   Increase in   Optimized
               based on     of build     in capex   advantaged     O&M by         capacity      value
             “regulated” schedule by     by $250/      fuel      $10/kW- year    factor by
             performance     1 year         kW                                      10%
 Value          -30          170          180           410            90           260        1,080
 $/kW
 IRR            5.6%         1.8%         2.3%          2.3%           0.5%         1.7%       14.2%
 Percent



           The difference between aaregulated new build and aaindustrial new build is
            The difference between regulated new build and industrial new build is
           significant; without both the commercial and operational skill set, new build
            significant; without both the commercial and operational skill set, new build
                                      economics will not work
                                       economics will not work
                                                                                                          22
Market Forces Have Converged To Create An Opportunity To Consolidate
And Improve Coal Generation…
                           Performance
                           Performance
                            Variability
                             Variability
                              Variances between 1st
                              and 4th quartile:
                              •Capacity factor: 57%
                              •Cost:            261%

        Fragmented                                       Wholesale Market
        Fragmented                                       Wholesale Market
        Ownership                                         Deregulation
         Ownership                                         Deregulation
                                 Consolidation
     Top 55merchant                                      Competitive wholesale
      Top merchant                                        Competitive wholesale
                                  Opportunity
     players account for                                 markets have aligned
      players account for                                 markets have aligned
     only 12% of national                                incentives with risks
      only 12% of national                                incentives with risks
     coal capacity
      coal capacity

                              Fundamental Gas
                              Fundamental Gas
                                 Price Shift
                                 Price Shift
                             Dark spreads are up 81%,
                              Dark spreads are up 81%,
                             driving plant values up
                              driving plant values up
                             over 100%
                              over 100%

                      Other asset-intensive industries that have
                       Other asset-intensive industries that have
           had similar characteristics have consolidated and created value
            had similar characteristics have consolidated and created value       23
Identifying The Value Opportunity Starts With Focusing On Assets That
Fit TXU’s Core Strengths…

              US Fleet        US Coal          US Merchant          US Merchant
                                                  Coal              Coal >100 MW

# Plants      15,757            597                  279                 108


Capacity
              959 GW           306 GW               95 GW               80 GW
(GW, 04)

Generation                                                              530 TWh
             3,950 TWh         1,950 TWh           550 TWh
(TWh, 04)


                  • Nuclear already     • Greater            • TXU Operating
Rationale
                    consolidated          opportunity to       System most
                                          retain value in      effective on
                  • Gas plants are a      merchant fleet       large plants
                    market timing bet

                  • TXU Operating       • Quicker/cheaper    • Small plants
                    System focused on     transaction          generally older
                    coal                  execution            and marginal

                                                                                   24
…And Estimating The Performance Improvements By Replicating TXU’s
Performance Across The Entire Merchant Coal Fleet
                       EBITDA Improvement Potential For Targeted US Merchant Coal Fleet1                         Value
                                                                                                               creation
                       $ billions
                                                                          0.8
                                                                  4.9
                                                          0.5                                                     $/kW
                                                0.7
                                                                                   4.1
                                       0.9
                                                                                                                   510
                                              0.4
                          2.4                                                                                      370
Aspiration

Target


                                                                            Fuel
                      Capacity Env                                                 Gross
                                      Non-fuel Heat                                        Cost to Net value
                                                                            cost
                       factor upgrades O&M                                         value
                                               rate                                        achieve




                                           Total improvement would be valued at over $40 billion
                                            Total improvement would be valued at over $40 billion
                                                                                                                          25
    Power prices estimated using 2010 forward price of $7.05 natural gas.
1
Applying These Value Levers To Individual Plants Produces A Targeted
Origination List Of Counterparties

                     EBITDA Improvement                Relative Improvement
                          $ millions                          Percent
 Operator                Target       Aspiration           Target        Aspiration
 A                           140              180               50               60
 B                           160              220               40               50
 C                           220              300               30               40
 D                           245              345               30               40
 E                           225              325               30               40
 F                            95              140               25               40
 G                            85              130               25               35
 H                           100              150               25               35
 I                           100              160               20               30
 J                           115              165               15               20
 K                            50               70               15               20

       TXU will leverage creative transaction structures to minimize premiums
        TXU will leverage creative transaction structures to minimize premiums
                                                                                      26
TXU’s Aspiration To Double The Size Of The Coal Portfolio Over The Next
5+ Years
                                                         Coal       Coal               Capital        Oper.
                                                     capacity generation % of 2010 investment Earnings1
                                                        (GW)      (TWh)     target ($ billions) ($ billions)
                                                                                            0.02
                                                                             36-47                       1.0
    2006 TXU                                              5.8         46


                                                                                 3-4         0.6       0.10
          Sandow 5                                        0.5          4
                                                                               11-14         2.0       0.35
          Oak Grove                                       1.7         14
                                                                                 3-4         0.6       0.11
          Other Texas existing sites                      0.5          4
                                                                               17-22         3.2         0.6
    Organic growth                                        2.7         22


                                                                               53-69         3.2         1.6
    TXU today + Organic growth                            8.5         68


                                                                               31-47     3.9-7.7     0.8-1.6
    Potential transactions                             3.5-7.0     30-60


                                                                                 100    7.1-10.9     2.4-3.2
    2010 Target                                       12-15.5     98-128

                               TXU is pursuing aamulti-pronged strategy of organic growth and
                                TXU is pursuing multi-pronged strategy of organic growth and
                                           transactions to reach its portfolio goals
                                            transactions to reach its portfolio goals
    Based on $60/MWh power.
1

                                                                                                          27
    Does not include sustaining Capex.
2
TXU Retail/Wholesale Is The Largest Competitive Retailer In A
Growth Market
 Large Competitive Customer Base                                            High Growth
 05; Millions of customers                                                  05E-14E; Percent annual growth
                                                                             2.8
         2.4                                                                          2.4
                     1.9                                                                    2.0 1.9
                                                                                                      1.7   1.7 1.6   1.6   1.6
                                                                                                                                  1.3
                                  0.9
                                          0.2        0.1    0.1
        TXU         RRI           Direct First              Green
                                                Gexa                      FRCC   ERCOT MAAC   MAIN    ECAR
                                  Energy Choice             Mountain
                                                                              WECC   MRO  SERC    SPP     NPCC
                                                                       Source: NERC
 Sources: KEMA, company filings


 Highly Competitive Market                                             Strong Demand
 Oct 05; Number of certified ERCOT                                     03; Residential GWh/household
 retailers                                                              15 15 15 15 15 14
                                105
                           103
                                                                                                              11 10 10
                                     75
                        56                                                                                                        7     7
           39



           01           02           03         04         05           LA TN AL FL MS TX US OH PA NY CA
                                                                                                                                            28
 Source: PUC                                                           Sources: EIA, BEA
Based On Core Beliefs About Value Creation, TXU Energy Has Designed
A Bottom-Up Business Unit Strategy


                  TXU Retail/Wholesale
                                                                   TXU Energy’s
                                                                    TXU Energy’s
                                                                   top priority is
                                                                    top priority is
                                                                   to restore
                                                                    to restore
     Return The North Texas        Opportunistically Build
                                                                   profitability to
                                                                    profitability to
      Consumer Franchise          Profitable Businesses In
                                                                   North Texas
         To Profitability         Other Customer Segments           North Texas
                                                                   TXU will
                                                                    TXU will
    Introduce innovative
                                  Take advantage of higher         continue to
                                                                    continue to
    products and pricing
                                  headroom opportunities           monitor
    plans that meet customer                                        monitor
                                  in South Texas to acquire
                                                                   opportunities
    needs and provide                                               opportunities
                                  residential customers
    sustaining margins                                             outside of
                                                                    outside of
                                                                   Texas
                                                                    Texas
    Continue to redefine          Focus on higher margin
    customer service to           customers in small,
    distinguish TXU Energy        medium, and large
    from its competitors          commercial segments

                                  Continue to drive cost leadership to
    Continue to advocate for a
                                  enhance competitiveness across all
    market-based structure that
                                  segments
    encourages competition                                                             29
Although Margins In This Business Are Currently Negative Due To High
Gas Prices …

     North Texas Residential Headroom vs. Gas Price Since Market Open
     02-05; Mixed measures
            Retail headroom1                                                                                                                         Gas price2
            $/MWh                                                                                                                                     $/MMBtu
                                                        12-month
            40                                                                                                                                                 $12.00
                                    Retail
                                                        forward gas
                                headroom
                                                        price
            30                                                                                                                                                 $10.00
                   20
                                                                                                                                                               $8.00
                   10
                                                                                                                                                               $6.00
                     0
                                                                                                                                                               $4.00
                  -10
                                                                                                                                                               $2.00
                  -20

                  -30                                                                                                                                          $0.00
                        Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct-
                         02 02 02 02 03 03 03 03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05

    Based on average customer usage of 16,000 kWh/yr. with PUC-approved residential load profile; headroom defined as PTB rate – cost of energy (avg. NYMEX 12 mo. strip x 7.8 heat
1

    rate x assumed 25% for load shaping, congestion, line losses and other ancillary costs) – avg. wires cost (based on published TXU Electric Delivery rates, excluding clawback).
                                                                                                                                                                                      30
    NYMEX 12-month strip through 10/31/05.
2
… They Are Expected To Improve With The Approved Fuel Factor
    Adjustment And Should Continue To Expand Over The Long Term Based
    Upon The Current Gas Curve
                                    Projected Headroom1
                                    05E - 08E; $/MWh
                                                                                                                        27




                                                                  3
                                                                                                                       10
                   Gross margin
                   Net margin                                   (5)

                                                              05E                                               06E - 08E
           Gas price2                                        $8.95                                                  $9.71

             The combination of the adjusted fuel factor and backwardation of the curve allow
              The combination of the adjusted fuel factor and backwardation of the curve allow
                       headroom and net margins to recover to reasonable levels
                        headroom and net margins to recover to reasonable levels


    Based on actual fuel factors through Oct-05 and $11.52/MMBtu for all future periods; assumes avg. customer usage of 16,000 kWh/yr.
1

                                                                                                                                         31
    Actual prices through Oct-05, forward prices based upon NYMEX curve as of 10/31/05.
2
Long-Term Headroom Of Approximately $25/MWh Is Needed To Allow
Competitors To Earn A Reasonable Risk Adjusted Return

    Attacker Gross And Net Margins With 7% Discount                                                                  Breakeven Payback For New
    And Headroom Of $25/MWh1,2                                                                                       Customer
                                                                                                                     07E; Months1,2
    07E; $/MWh
                                                                                                                                             Attacker discount; %
             25                        10
                                                                                                                                                    5%           7%          10%
                                                                                                                     Head-
                                                                 2
                                                                                                                                       $20           53          NA            NA
                                                                                         10                          room
                                                                                                                  ($/MWh)
                                                                                                                                       $25           12           21           NA
                             Net margin
              9                                                                           2              Net
                                                                                                         margin                        $30            7            9           17
      North                     Com-                   Acquisition                 Attacker
      Texas                     petitor                cost                        gross
                                                                                                                                               Reasonable payback
      headroom                  discount                                           margin


        With an average customer life of three years and competitive discounts of at least 5 –
         With an average customer life of three years and competitive discounts of at least 5 –
       10%, headroom of over $20/MWh is needed for attackers to achieve positive economics
        10%, headroom of over $20/MWh is needed for attackers to achieve positive economics


    TXU Energy margins estimated using NYMEX 10/31/05 gas strip for calendar 06, average consumption of 16.0 MWh per year.
1

    Attacker economics based on above, with discounts from PTB as shown, acquisition costs of $105/customer amortized over 36 months, marginal SG&A of $3/MWh, and bad debt of 1.3%.
2
                                                                                                                                                                                       32
The UK Experience Supports $20 - $30/MWh Headroom And Resilient
    Market Shares

              Incumbent Native Market Shares
              01 - 04; Percent

                    69%                64%                                                                        On an equivalent basis to
                                                          62%                61%
                                                                                                                   On an equivalent basis to
                                                                                                                  ERCOT, UK residential
                                                                                                                   ERCOT, UK residential
                                                                                                                  incumbents achieved
                                                                                                                   incumbents achieved
                                                                                                                  gross margins averaging
                                                                                                                   gross margins averaging
                                                                                                                  approximately $25/MWh
                                                                                                                   approximately $25/MWh
                                                                                                                  from 01 to 04
                                                                                                                   from 01 to 04
                      01                 02                03                 04
              UK Retail Energy Gross Margins1                                                                     Six years after market
                                                                                                                   Six years after market
              01 - 04; $/MWh                                                                                      open, UK incumbents
                                                                                                                   open, UK incumbents
                                                                             $26                                  continue to hold the
                    $26                $25                                                                         continue to hold the
                                                          $24
                                                                                                                  majority of their legacy
                                                                                                                   majority of their legacy
                                                                                                                  customers, while acquiring
                                                                                                                   customers, while acquiring
                                                                                                                  new customers in other
                                                                                                                   new customers in other
                                                                                                                  areas
                                                                                                                   areas

                      01                 02                03                 04
 Gross margins for combined electricity and gas customers (all major competitors offer both energy types and may discount either or both). Margins reported by Datamonitor and adjusted for
1

  definitional differences between UK and TXU reporting. 01- 04 average FX of $1.60/£ assumed for all years.
                                                                                                                                                                                              33
Source: Datamonitor, PA Consulting, TXU Energy analysis
TXU Electric Delivery Has An Advantaged Structural Position…
                                                               Scope: Large Infrastructure
    Size: Large Customer Base
                                                               04; Thousands of miles of primary distribution lines
    04; Millions of customers
                                                                 146
    5.3   5.2
                                                                        105
                 4.2 4.2
                                                                                         87
                                                                                 87
                           3.1   3.0 2.9                                                        69
                                           2.6                                                         69      65   63
                                                 2.3 2.2                                                                 59   54




                                                                                                TXU
   PCG EXC FPL SO          ED TXU PGN ETR D DUK
 Source: FERC                                                Source: Proprietary benchmarking study


   Demand: High Growth                                         Supportive Regulatory Environment
   05E-14E; Percent annual growth

    2.8
           2.4
                 2.0 1.9
                           1.7   1.7 1.6   1.6   1.6
                                                       1.3




                                                                                                                              Outstanding
  FRCC   ERCOT MAAC   MAIN    ECAR
                                                                                                                              Above Average
      WECC   MRO  SERC    SPP     NPCC
                                                                                                                              Average
 Source: NERC                                                    Source: Banc of America Securities Research
                                                                                                                              Below Average
                     TXU Electric Delivery is a scale player in a high-growth region
                      TXU Electric Delivery is a scale player in a high-growth region                                                    34
…And A Unique Business Model That Makes It Look More Like A FERC
Transmission Or Pipeline System Than A Traditional Utility



                                     Traditional T&D           Gas LDC’s   Pipeline    FERC     TXU Electric
                                      comparables                           MLP’s                 Delivery
                                                                                      TransCo

                Regulation                       State           State      FERC        FERC        State

        Capital tracker                             No            No          No         Yes         Yes1

     Commodity risk                                Yes            Yes         No          No          No

    Retail customers                               Yes            Yes         No          No          No




            TXU Electric Delivery has higher growth and more progressive investment recovery
             TXU Electric Delivery has higher growth and more progressive investment recovery
             mechanisms than typical regulated transmission and distribution peer companies
              mechanisms than typical regulated transmission and distribution peer companies


                                                                                                               35
    For transmission and automated meter reading investments
1
Based On Core Beliefs About Value Creation, TXU Electric Delivery Has
Designed A Bottom-Up Business Unit Strategy


                     TXU Electric Delivery


      Continue To Redefine        Consolidate Regional T&D To
       Excellence In Texas            Extract Synergies            TXU will
                                                                    TXU will
                                                                   continue to drive
                                                                    continue to drive
                                   Scale TXU’s distinctive asset
     Focus on distinctive asset                                    distinctive
                                                                    distinctive
                                   management capabilities
     management: optimize                                          performance in
                                                                    performance in
                                   over a larger grid
     reliability and costs                                         Texas while
                                                                    Texas while
                                                                   attempting to
                                                                    attempting to
                                                                   scale its
                                                                    scale its
     Take advantage of high        Take a national role in         operating edge
                                                                    operating edge
     growth market and             technology through              regionally
                                                                    regionally
     advantaged business           leading technology
     model to invest in needed     consortium and third
     infrastructure                party infrastructure fund


     Integrate BPL and AMR
     into grid to help redefine
     service quality
                                                                                    36
TXU Electric Delivery Has Achieved Top Quartile Reliability While
Simultaneously Maintaining Top Quartile Costs
    Non-Storm SAIDI1 (n=33)                                                                                       O&M Costs2 Per Customer (n=33)
    04; Minutes                                                                                                   04; $/customer
                                                                                                                      85.8         112.0             128.0                 139.6
               71.3        87.5                145.1                  183.0
260                                                                                                  $220
234                                                                                                  $198
208                                                                                                  $176
182                                                                                                  $154
156                                                                                                  $132
130                                                                                                  $110                 03 05
                                                                                                                    08
104                                                                                                     $88
                      05 03
    78                                                                                                  $66
              08
    52                                                                                                  $44
    26                                                                                                  $22
      0                                                                                                   $0
                                  3rd Quartile                                                                                            3rd Quartile
           1st Quartile                                                                                            1st Quartile
                       2nd Quartile          4th Quartile                                                                      2nd Quartile           4th Quartile

         Significant capital investments are planned to ensure consistent top quartile reliability,
          Significant capital investments are planned to ensure consistent top quartile reliability,
           while rigorous focus on cost efficiency will result in top decile cost performance by 08
           while rigorous focus on cost efficiency will result in top decile cost performance by 08
    TXU Electric Delivery is evaluating adoption of the IEEE 1366 standard for reporting reliability performance. Projected 2008 non-storm SAIDI calculated under this method would be 74.59.2.
1

                                                                                                                                                                                                  37
    Benchmark includes specific O&M accounts as well as maintenance capital.
2
Based On A Rapidly Growing Market, And The Importance Of Keeping
The Lights On, TXU Electric Delivery Is Investing In Needed Infrastructure
Upgrades                                                        Automated meters
                                                                                                                            Distribution
                                                                                                                            Transmission
North Texas Economic Cost Of One Minute
                                                                                                   TXU Electric Delivery Capex Budget
of downtime1
                                                                                                   03-08; $ millions
05: $ millions

                                                                                  9.6                                            850 875
                                                          7.3                                                          825
                                                                                                                                     75
                                                                                                                 750             75
                                                                                                                       75
                                                                                                                 25
                                                                                                           600
                                                                                                                                           350
                                                                                                                                350
                                                                                                     543               325
                                                                                                                 375
                                                                                                           300
                                                                                                    300
                                  2.2
                                                                                                                                           450
                                                                                                                       425      425
                                                                                                                 350
                                                                                                           300
                                                                                                    243
          0.1

    Residential Commercial Industrial                                            Total
                                                                                                     03    04    05E 06E 07E 08E
     ••TXU Electric Delivery’s capital and technology deployment strategy is designed to
        TXU Electric Delivery’s capital and technology deployment strategy is designed to
       lower grid congestion, and increase system reliability
        lower grid congestion, and increase system reliability
     ••About 50% of TXU Electric Delivery’s capital is eligible for expedited recovery
        About 50% of TXU Electric Delivery’s capital is eligible for expedited recovery
 Outage cost/Customer also influenced by time of the day, season, region and duration of outage.
1
                                                                                                                                                 38
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory study, 2004
Today The ERCOT Grid Remains Fragmented . . .

           All Too Small: Share Of Gross Transmission And Distribution PPE
           04; Percent

               100% = $25 billion

                          Publics and
                            Co-ops                                  TXU
                             25%                                    38%



                            PNM
                             3%




                                  CNP
                                                          AEP
                                  22%
                                                          12%
                                     Nearly 40 public power companies and
                                      Nearly 40 public power companies and
                                   co-ops comprise 25% of the ERCOT market
                                    co-ops comprise 25% of the ERCOT market
                                                                              39
Source: Energy Velocity
…Offering An Opportunity Through Improvements In Efficiency And
Reliability

     Relative Cost Position                                          Relative Reliability Position
                                                                     SAIDI
     Total Cash Cost Per Customer
                                                                     04; Minutes
     04; $/customer
                                                               26%                                    25%
                                                               26%                                    25%
                       475
                                                                                100
                                                         350
                                                                                                     75




        Weighted Avg Rest of                             TXU            Weighted Avg Rest            TXU
              ERCOT                                                         of ERCOT




                     Driving the market to TXU
                      Driving the market to TXU                             Reducing SAIDI by 25 minutes
                                                                             Reducing SAIDI by 25 minutes
                     performance levels implies
                      performance levels implies                            could save the Texas economy
                                                                             could save the Texas economy
                     potential annual savings of
                      potential annual savings of                             over $425 million annually
                                                                               over $425 million annually
                          over $550 million
                           over $550 million
                                                                                                            40
Source: Texas Public Utilities Commission, FERC Form 1
TXU Has Implemented A Process To Help Each Business Achieve Their
Strategic Aspirations

                                2006              2007                2008            2009
                      4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th   1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd    3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th

Transaction

Electric Delivery

• Technology consortium
• Infrastructure fund
• 1st Delivery transaction

TXU Power

• Sandow 5 online
• Oak Grove online
• 1st Power transaction




                                                                                             41
Today’s Agenda


                        •   The TXU Turnaround
      TXU Today
      TXU Today         •   Core Strategic Principles




                        •   TXU Power
    Business Unit
    Business Unit       •   TXU Retail/Wholesale
      Strategies
      Strategies        •   TXU Electric Delivery



                        •   Natural Gas
                        •   Heat Rate
  Risk/Market Outlook
  Risk/Market Outlook
                        •   Capital Allocation Principles



                        •   Financial Outlook And Growth
      Financial
      Financial         •   Financial Sensitivities
      Principles
      Principles        •   Long-Term Sources And Uses Of Cash
                                                                 42
TXU Believes The Fundamentals Support Backwardation In The Natural
 Gas Curve…

 US And Canada Gas Supply And Demand                    Natural Gas Price Forecasts
 (12 Bcfd LNG addition)                                 06E-10E; $/MMBtu
 10E; $/MMBtu

12                                                      $12.00
                                     2010
                                    demand
10                                                      $10.00
                                                                                     NYMEX
 8                                                       $8.00

         Price range=$5.50-$7.00
 6                                                       $6.00
                                                                                      PIRA
                                                         $4.00
 4

                                                         $2.00
 2

                                                         $0.00
 0
                                                                  06     07     08    09     10
     0   10   20   30   40     50   60   70   80   90
               Cumulative Capacity
                     Bcfd

                                   While the gas curve is backwardated,
                                   While the gas curve is backwardated,
                             fundamentals still support historically high prices
                              fundamentals still support historically high prices
                                                                                                  43
…And Significant Heat Rate Recovery Over The Next Ten Years


      ERCOT Market 7X24 Heat Rates (NYMEX)
      06E-10E; MMBtu/MWh
                                                                                Equivalent to
                                            2010 Henwood                        an 8.5 HSC
                                            estimate = 9.1                      heat rate                    9.9

                                 1.0        0.1          0.1                      0.4
                                                                                                8.1
                                                                     0.0
              7.7




                                                                                                2010
              2006               Demand    Demand       Wind     Unmothballing Baseload                Long-term heat
                                                                                                heat
              heat               growth   destruction generation of gas peakers capacity               rate to support
                                                                                                rate
              rate                                    increases                 additions                CCGT new
                                                                                                            build1
    Details                 • 2% yearly • 1.1 GW of • 1.8 GW      • 2.4 GW       • Sandow 5
                              demand      destruction                              (0.6 GW)
                              growth                                             • Oak Grove
                            • 1.7 GW per                                           (1.7 GW)
                              year                                               • S.A. Power
                                                                                   (0.8 GW)

                                 The growth in ERCOT supports limited baseload expansion
                                  The growth in ERCOT supports limited baseload expansion
                                                                                                                         44
    Based on $5.00 gas prices.
1
Over The Next Three Years TXU Will Remain Relatively Neutral To Natural
Gas And Become Longer Heat Rate
    Well Controlled: Natural Gas Position                              Growth Potential: Heat Rate Position
    06E-08E; Million MMBtu                                             06E-08E; Million MWh
                                              06E      07E      08E                           06E      07E    08E
Current baseload                               470     460      460    Current baseload        61       61     62
production                                                             production
Gas plants                                       -        -        -   Gas plants               5        5      6
Total “native long”                            470     460      460    Total “native long”     66       66     68
position                                                               position
Retail “short”                               (380)    (330)    (300)   Retail “short”         (50)     (42)   (38)
position1                                                              position1
PPAs/Tolls/Other                              (50)     (80)    (100)   PPAs/Tolls/Other        (3)       3      2
forward power and                                                      forward power and
gas sales                                                              gas sales
Expected underlying                         ~30-40   ~40-50   ~50-60   Expected underlying    ~13      ~27    ~32
position                                                               position
Percentage hedged                           91-98%     89% 87-89%      Percentage hedged      80%     59%     53%



                                  TXU has locked in ~ 90% of its natural gas exposure
                                   TXU has locked in ~ 90% of its natural gas exposure
                           and is maintaining the majority of its long-term heat rate exposure
                            and is maintaining the majority of its long-term heat rate exposure
    Assumes retail price remains constant
1
                                                                                                                 45
TXU’s EBITDA Is Expected To Remain Relatively Insensitive To Natural
      Gas Price Changes And Heat Rate Changes

                          EBITDA Impact Of $1/MMBtu                                                       EBITDA Impact of 0.2 MMBtu/MWh
                                                                                                          change in market heat rate1
                          change in natural gas
                          06E-08E; Percent                                                                06E-08E; Percent



                                                                                       <1.5%                                      <1.5%
                                    <1.0%                                                                    <1.0%
                                                             <1.0%                                                     <1.0%




                                      06E                      07E                       08E                  06E       07E        08E

Change in EBITDA ~30-40                                        ~40-50                   ~50-60                ~30       ~50       ~55
$ millions


       Over the next three years, TXU has a small sensitivity to natural gas price and
       Over the next three years, TXU has a small sensitivity to natural gas price and
         heat rate changes due to the benefits of market hedges and its integrated
          heat rate changes due to the benefits of market hedges and its integrated
                                         portfolio
                                          portfolio


                                                                                                                                           46
    Based on 06 natural gas price = $11.00, 07 natural gas price = $9.65, 08 natural gas price = $8.49.
1
TXU Also Manages Risk Through Its “Cash Scrubber”



                                                                                                           Retained for
                                                                                                           Investment
               Cash
                Flow
TXU Business




                from                  Excess                                                           Excess
                                                                               Excess
   Units




               Oper-     “Customer”            Growth            Financial                Dividend
               ations      Capital             capital           Flexibility               Payout
                 and
               Asset
                                Yes                 Yes, if            Yes, until
               Sales                                                                            Yes
                                                                       in 06+
                                           PV/ Investment                               Payout 30-40%
                        Quality service                        EBITDA/Interest:
                                            PV/ Investment                               Payout 30-40%
                         Quality service                        EBITDA/Interest:                           Repurchases
                                           threshold of 1.3                             of operational
                        Production                             >5.0
                                            threshold of 1.3                             of operational
                         Production                             >5.0                                      or Distributions
                                           25-35% cash                                  earnings
                        reliability                            Debt/EBITDA:
                                            25-35% cash                                  earnings
                         reliability                            Debt/EBITDA:
                                           returned <5 yrs     <2.5
                                            returned <5 yrs     <2.5
                                                               Debt/MEV: 30%
                                                                Debt/MEV: 30%
                                                               to 50%
                                                                to 50%




                                                                                                      Equity
                                                                   Debt
                                                                                                      Holders
                                                                  Holders


                        The cash scrubber will govern the allocation of operating
                         The cash scrubber will govern the allocation of operating
                             cash flow and the deployment of growth capital
                              cash flow and the deployment of growth capital
                                                                                                                             47
Today’s Agenda


                        •   The TXU Turnaround
      TXU Today
      TXU Today         •   Core Strategic Principles




                        •   TXU Power
    Business Unit
    Business Unit       •   TXU Retail/Wholesale
      Strategies
      Strategies        •   TXU Electric Delivery



                        •   Natural Gas
                        •   Heat Rate
  Risk/Market Outlook
  Risk/Market Outlook
                        •   Capital Allocation Principles



                        •   Financial Outlook And Growth
      Financial
      Financial         •   Financial Sensitivities
      Principles
      Principles        •   Long-Term Sources And Uses Of Cash
                                                                 48
TXU Is Focused On Achieving Balanced Financial Performance


                               Increased
                                Earning
                                 Power




                               Increased
                                 Value

                                                     Increased
          Increased
                                                      Financial
           Returns
                                                     Flexibility


                     TXU’s ultimate financial objective is to
                      TXU’s ultimate financial objective is to
             simultaneously improve all three economic dimensions
              simultaneously improve all three economic dimensions
                                                                     49
energy future holindings _EEI
energy future holindings _EEI
energy future holindings _EEI
energy future holindings _EEI
energy future holindings _EEI
energy future holindings _EEI
energy future holindings _EEI
energy future holindings _EEI
energy future holindings _EEI
energy future holindings _EEI
energy future holindings _EEI
energy future holindings _EEI
energy future holindings _EEI
energy future holindings _EEI
energy future holindings _EEI
energy future holindings _EEI

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energy future holindings _EEI

  • 1. EEI Conference C. John Wilder Chief Executive Officer November 8, 2005
  • 2. Safe Harbor Statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Discussion of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from management's current projections, forecasts, estimates and expectations is contained in the company's SEC filings. In addition to the risks and uncertainties set forth in the company's SEC filings, the forward-looking statements in this release could be affected by the ability of the company to implement the initiatives that are part of its operational improvement and cost reduction program and financial and growth strategies, and the terms under which the company executes those initiatives, the ability of the company to execute its share repurchase program and the actions of its board of directors with respect to future dividends and other cash distributions to shareholders, which will be based upon a number of factors, including the company’s profit levels, operating cash flow levels and capital requirements as well as financial and other business conditions existing at the time. Regulation G This presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure is included in the appendix of the printed version of the slides and the version included on the company’s website at www.txucorp.com under Investor Resources/Presentations. 1
  • 3. Today’s Agenda • The TXU Turnaround TXU Today TXU Today • Core Strategic Principles • TXU Power Business Unit Business Unit • TXU Retail/Wholesale Strategies Strategies • TXU Electric Delivery • Natural Gas • Heat Rate Risk/Market Outlook Risk/Market Outlook • Capital Allocation Principles • Financial Outlook And Growth Financial Financial • Financial Sensitivities Principles Principles • Long-Term Sources And Uses Of Cash 2
  • 4. January 2004: TXU Was Challenged By The Transition To Its New Competitive Environment Too Much Debt: Debt/Total Enterprise Value Poor Returns: Annual TRS Jan 04; Percent Jan 94 - Jan 04; Percent 43% 43% 981% 65 11.9 37 1.1 Top quartile Top quartile TXU TXU (S&P Electric) (S&P Electric) Costly Operations: Nuclear Oper. Costs Poor Service: Average Speed To Answer 03; $/MWh 03; Seconds 18% 96% 18% 96% 280 12.0 9.8 12 TXU Best in class TXU Best in class 3
  • 5. To Compete In This New Environment, TXU Designed And Is Executing A Three Phase Improvement Plan… Today Phase 3: Ongoing Value Creation Phase 2: Performance Improvement • Identified $1.3 billion in performance improvements over 3 years • Identified $900 million in year one – outperforming plan Phase 1: Risk And Return Restructuring • Sold disadvantaged businesses • Quickly reallocated $14 billion to repair balance sheet • Reduced major risks 4
  • 6. …The Execution Of The Turnaround Plan Has Created Significant Value For TXU Shareholders By Focusing On Three Key Levers Based on price as Gains Across The Board: TXU Value Creation of November 4th 05; $/share 94 5 5 7 276% 276% 20 3 19 4 23 26 26 25 25 Stock Share Hedge Commodity Gas plant Baseload CGE cost Other Stock price repurchases removal increases improve- capacity reductions costs Price Feb and asset ments factor (bad debt, Today 04 sales (dispatch sourcing, and cost) SG&A) Portfolio Risk Performance management and management management capital allocation Total value creation is greater than $15 billion Total value creation is greater than $15 billion 5
  • 7. TXU’s Strategy Reflects Core Beliefs About What It Takes To Win In The Energy Business Principle Rationale • Energy markets will continue to go through cycles; only assets with a structural cost Long-Term Success In The Energy advantage will win over the long term 1 Sector Is Based On Having Access • Structurally advantaged positions provide To Structurally Advantaged Assets better opportunities over the long term • Superior operations and performance management can drive a 200 basis-point increase in ROIC 2 An Industrial Skill Set Is Crucial For • Many companies in the sector have not Continual High Performance transformed their performance level to reflect a competitive environment (delta between median and top quartile is 10-20%) • Just like in other capital intensive sectors, scale is necessary to standardize operations, gain critical mass, and extract 3 Long-Term Winners Must Leverage rent from suppliers Not Only Scale But “Quality Scale” • “Quality scale” is needed to gain access to advantaged new build, and gain competitive and regulatory leadership 6
  • 8. Principle 1: TXU’s Core Businesses Are Structurally Advantaged Across The Entire Value Chain TXU Competitive Business TXU Regulated Business Transmission and Generation Retail Wholesale Distribution TXU Power TXU Wholesale TXU Energy TXU Electric Delivery 2nd largest U.S. Access to largest Large scale 6th largest U.S. deregulated output competitive retailer ERCOT generation transmission & fleet distribution company Access to low cost Loyal customer lignite reserves base Access to largest Top quartile costs and Structural ERCOT retail reliability advantages 63 TWh of Strong brand position recognition baseload High growth NERC region (2.0%) production in a gas Incumbent Superior service on the margin expertise in Efficient capital market regulatory recovery advocacy and market design No commodity exposure No retail customers 05E EBITDA $2.6 - 2.7 B $1.2 B 7
  • 9. Principle 2: An Industrial Skill Set Will Help Drive Superior Returns Throughout The Cycle Operational Excellence Risk/Return Mindset Market Leadership • Superior customer service • Top decile throughput • Strict capital allocation and brand management discipline • World class industrial • Customer segmentation production costs • Risk/return restructuring and pricing • Industry leading reliability • Commodity risk • Distinctive commodity management • Lean corporate SG&A sourcing Performance Management • High performance culture • Balanced cascading scorecards • Employee development • Incentives linked to key value drivers 8
  • 10. Principle 3: Multi-Market Leadership Is Crucial As Demonstrated By Similarities Between The E&P Sector And The Power Sector… Characteristic E&P Power Generation Delivery • Exploration and • Power marketing • Regulated model makes development driven constrained to regional every transmission region Multi-local by local geology and transmission grids different infrastructure • Minimum efficient • Minimum efficient • T&D companies can often Capital investment > $1 investment > $750 invest up to 10% of their billion million market cap in annual intensive capex • Oil/gas price cycles • Power price cycle • Regulated returns cycle driven by investment driven by gas price based on interest rate conduct, declining volatility, fuel price cycle Cyclical economics and volatility, demand demand cyclicality growth, investment conduct • Country regimes • State/federal • All capex and rate Importance of define development regulators approve structures must be regulatory rules and economics development and approved by local/federal competitive market regulators relationships rules 9
  • 11. ...And Looking At The Characteristics Of The Most Successful E&P Companies… Actual E&P Companies Shareholder Value Creation (SVC)… …has been driven by scale and quality of scale 91-01; $ billions High A A 61 B D B 61 E Scale: C 25 C G Equity Cap D 21 F H E 7 Low F 6 Low High Quality of Scale: G 0 Percent of value in “Market Leading” H -5 positions1 10 “Market Leading” positions defined as having greater than 15% investment share in a basin with PVI > 2. 1
  • 12. …The Winning Strategy In The Power Sector Will Require The Combination Of Scale And Quality Of Scale Key Principle Competitive Advantages TXU Application • Standardization of operating • Applying TXU Operating System practices across larger portfolio of assets • Ability to take part in needed large • Taking part in infrastructure build out Scale capital investments without “betting the company” • Ability to extract excess rents from • Leveraging bulk purchases to reduce equipment suppliers equipment supplier costs and increase returns • Better access to future • Taking advantage of sites like Oak development opportunities Grove for new build • Providing competitive leadership • Ensuring capital is invested Quality of scale and capital discipline appropriately in needed infrastructure • Providing regulatory leadership • Advocating that market rules (e.g., Nodal) develop to ensure fair competition In the E&P sector, the combination of both factors was In the E&P sector, the combination of both factors was needed to drive significant value creation over time needed to drive significant value creation over time 11
  • 13. Scale Is Needed To Take A Meaningful Part In The Next Infrastructure Build Out Project As Percent Major Project Capex Equity Market Cap Of Market Cap $ billions $ billions Percent Exxon 370 1.1 Deepwater GOM development 4 BP 233 1.7 (e.g., Thunderhorse) CVX 124 3.2 47 6.3 Exelon 2000 MW 3 Dominion 27 11.1 coal plant 24 12.5 TXU While E&P leaders have the scale to take the risk of major new build projects, in the While E&P leaders have the scale to take the risk of major new build projects, in the deregulated power sector new build projects represent major bets deregulated power sector new build projects represent major bets 12
  • 14. TXU Electric Delivery’s Aspiration Is To Establish A Winning Position in ERCOT/SPP High Winning Scale: Net T&D plant in service in Strategy Actual Delivery Companies ERCOT/SPP TXU Low Low High Quality of Scale: Percent of total assets in “Market Leading” positions1 Most delivery companies lack scale, despite some quality positions in aaparticular state Most delivery companies lack scale, despite some quality positions in particular state While aacouple of players have established leadership positions, none has taken aa While couple of players have established leadership positions, none has taken leading position across multiple regions leading position across multiple regions 13 “Market leading” defined as percent of state T&D assets >30%. 1
  • 15. TXU Power’s Aspiration Is To Follow The “Regional Market Leader” Strategy And Replicate Its Quality Scale Position In Other Deregulated Markets High Scale: Total merchant generation Winning Actual Power Strategy Companies TXU Low Low High Quality of Scale: Percent of value in “Market Leading” positions1 No deregulated company has been able to establish “quality scale” in multiple markets No deregulated company has been able to establish “quality scale” in multiple markets There are aanumber of companies that have high quality positions but lack the scale to There are number of companies that have high quality positions but lack the scale to extract “Market Leader” value extract “Market Leader” value 14 “Market Leader” defined as solid fuel TWh >10% of NERC region merchant TWh. 1
  • 16. Today’s Agenda • The TXU Turnaround TXU Today TXU Today • Core Strategic Principles • TXU Power Business Unit Business Unit • TXU Retail/Wholesale Strategies Strategies • TXU Electric Delivery • Natural Gas • Heat Rate Risk/Market Outlook Risk/Market Outlook • Capital Allocation Principles • Financial Outlook And Growth Financial Financial • Financial Sensitivities Principles Principles • Long-Term Sources And Uses Of Cash 15
  • 17. TXU Power Has A Structurally Advantaged Portfolio In A Market With Strong Fundamentals… ERCOT Average Implied Heat Rate Large Portfolio 05; TWh of deregulated generation 04; MMBtu/MWh Gas fleet provides shaping and ancillary 24 178 services Solid fuel capacity 21 provides low cost 18 baseload power Gas 15 (10.2 GW) 12 62 62 Lignite 46 9 Nuclear (5.8 GW) 46 44 40 37 30 (2.3 6 GW) TXU units 3 EXC TXU NRG/ D PPL EME FE AYE ETR 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Cumulative GWs TGN Source: Platts Low Coal Prices1 Robust Wholesale Power Prices 05; $/MMBtu 05; $/MWh 4.0 75 3.8 3.5 3.5 65 61 60 56 54 54 53 52 50 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.7 NPCC ERCOT WECC SERC MRO MAPP ECAR FRCC MAAC FRCC MAAC SPP MAIN ECAR TXU WECC SERC MAIN 16 Source: Platts Emissions-adjusted. 1
  • 18. Based On Core Beliefs About Value Creation, TXU Power Has Designed A Bottom-Up Business Unit Strategy TXU Power Gain Scale Outside The ultimate The ultimate Continue To Strengthen The Of ERCOT And goal is to goal is to ERCOT Position Build Market Leader Position develop develop sustainable sustainable Leverage TXU Operating competitive competitive Scale TXU Operating System to continue to positions in positions in System to improve 3rd drive increased value multiple markets multiple markets party assets from Texas baseload fleet Leverage creative Take advantage of transactional solutions existing sites (Sandow, with counterparties who Oak Grove) to add new share our vision capacity in Texas Develop deeper multi- market wholesale capabilities 17
  • 19. In Coal Generation, TXU’s Goal Is To Redefine High Performance Utilization While Simultaneously Achieving High Performance Costs Capacity Factor For US National Coal Fleet1 (n=225) O&M For Non-Scrubbed Coal Fleet2 (n=160) 02-04; Percent 02-04; $/KW-year 17.0 21.0 25.7 32.3 82.1 76.2 68.7 58.6 100 100 08 90 90 05 03 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 05 03 30 30 08 20 20 10 10 0 0 1st Quartile 3rd Quartile 1st Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile 2nd Quartile 2nd Quartile 4th Quartile Plant 05 08 EBITDA improvement Plant 05 08 EBITDA improvement Total 90% 92% $69M Total $26 $21 $30M TXU Power is driving increased production and cost reduction via the Operating System TXU Power is driving increased production and cost reduction via the Operating System Sample set includes all coal plants > 450 MWs. 1 18 Sample set includes all coal plants > 450 MWs, 2002-2004 non-scrubbed coal plants. TXU plants normalized for scrubbing & fuel type. 2
  • 20. The Goal In Nuclear Is To Replicate Top Fleet Performance At A Single Plant Making Progress: Capacity Factor More Productive: Non-Fuel O&M 02-04; Percent 02-04; $/kW 95.4 95.1 101 94 89 79 92.6 91.3 Exelon TXU TXU TXU Exelon TXU TXU TXU Large 03-05 06-08 08-10 Large 03-05 06-08 08-10 Plants1 Plants1 Closing the gap on capacity factor and cost will have Closing the gap on capacity factor and cost will have ~$120 million upside relative to 03-05 ~$120 million upside relative to 03-05 19 Exelon large plants include Byron, Braidwood, Lasalle, Limerick, and Peach Bottom. 1
  • 21. TXU Has Access To Two Development Opportunities In Texas… Oak Grove Steam Electric Station Sandow Unit 5 Robertson County, Texas Rockdale, Texas Key Statistic Key Statistic Installed Capacity (MW) 600 Installed Capacity (MW) 1,720 Technology CFB Technology SCPC Configuration 2X1 Configuration 2X2 Primary Fuel Lignite Primary Fuel Lignite LI/ SNCR1 SO2 and NOX Controls FGD/SCR2 SO2 and NOX Controls Key Milestones Key Milestones Air Permit In-Process Air Permit Complete Begin Construction 2 mos. after permit Resume Construction April 06 Commercial Operation June 09/Dec 09 Commercial Operation Oct 08 LI refers to Limestone Injection; SNCR refers to Selective Non-Catalytic Reduction. 1 20 FGD refers to Flue Gas Desulphurization; SCR refers to Selective Catalytic Reduction. 2
  • 22. …That Deliver Strong Returns With A Strong Expected Hedged Position… Sandow 5 – 600 MW Oak Grove – 1,720 MW 06E-10E; $ millions 06E-10E; $ millions 06 07 08 09 10 06 07 08 09 10 EBITDA 165 575 EBITDA 45 165 160 Net income 30 285 Net income 15 70 70 Capex 260 740 650 250 15 Capex 230 265 165 5 5 Est. hedged Est. hedged output-% 75 75 75 output-% 75 75 PV/I = 1.5 PV/I = 1.7 PV/I = 1.5 PV/I = 1.7 IRR = 11% IRR = 14.2% IRR = 11% IRR = 14.2% Cash payback = 99years Cash payback = 88years Cash payback = years Cash payback = years 21
  • 23. …Based On The Ability To Drive High Performance Across All Aspects Of The Project Respectable Returns: Oak Grove Project Economics - NPV 05; $ billions 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.3 (0.1) Plant value Compression Reduction Access to Reduction in Increase in Optimized based on of build in capex advantaged O&M by capacity value “regulated” schedule by by $250/ fuel $10/kW- year factor by performance 1 year kW 10% Value -30 170 180 410 90 260 1,080 $/kW IRR 5.6% 1.8% 2.3% 2.3% 0.5% 1.7% 14.2% Percent The difference between aaregulated new build and aaindustrial new build is The difference between regulated new build and industrial new build is significant; without both the commercial and operational skill set, new build significant; without both the commercial and operational skill set, new build economics will not work economics will not work 22
  • 24. Market Forces Have Converged To Create An Opportunity To Consolidate And Improve Coal Generation… Performance Performance Variability Variability Variances between 1st and 4th quartile: •Capacity factor: 57% •Cost: 261% Fragmented Wholesale Market Fragmented Wholesale Market Ownership Deregulation Ownership Deregulation Consolidation Top 55merchant Competitive wholesale Top merchant Competitive wholesale Opportunity players account for markets have aligned players account for markets have aligned only 12% of national incentives with risks only 12% of national incentives with risks coal capacity coal capacity Fundamental Gas Fundamental Gas Price Shift Price Shift Dark spreads are up 81%, Dark spreads are up 81%, driving plant values up driving plant values up over 100% over 100% Other asset-intensive industries that have Other asset-intensive industries that have had similar characteristics have consolidated and created value had similar characteristics have consolidated and created value 23
  • 25. Identifying The Value Opportunity Starts With Focusing On Assets That Fit TXU’s Core Strengths… US Fleet US Coal US Merchant US Merchant Coal Coal >100 MW # Plants 15,757 597 279 108 Capacity 959 GW 306 GW 95 GW 80 GW (GW, 04) Generation 530 TWh 3,950 TWh 1,950 TWh 550 TWh (TWh, 04) • Nuclear already • Greater • TXU Operating Rationale consolidated opportunity to System most retain value in effective on • Gas plants are a merchant fleet large plants market timing bet • TXU Operating • Quicker/cheaper • Small plants System focused on transaction generally older coal execution and marginal 24
  • 26. …And Estimating The Performance Improvements By Replicating TXU’s Performance Across The Entire Merchant Coal Fleet EBITDA Improvement Potential For Targeted US Merchant Coal Fleet1 Value creation $ billions 0.8 4.9 0.5 $/kW 0.7 4.1 0.9 510 0.4 2.4 370 Aspiration Target Fuel Capacity Env Gross Non-fuel Heat Cost to Net value cost factor upgrades O&M value rate achieve Total improvement would be valued at over $40 billion Total improvement would be valued at over $40 billion 25 Power prices estimated using 2010 forward price of $7.05 natural gas. 1
  • 27. Applying These Value Levers To Individual Plants Produces A Targeted Origination List Of Counterparties EBITDA Improvement Relative Improvement $ millions Percent Operator Target Aspiration Target Aspiration A 140 180 50 60 B 160 220 40 50 C 220 300 30 40 D 245 345 30 40 E 225 325 30 40 F 95 140 25 40 G 85 130 25 35 H 100 150 25 35 I 100 160 20 30 J 115 165 15 20 K 50 70 15 20 TXU will leverage creative transaction structures to minimize premiums TXU will leverage creative transaction structures to minimize premiums 26
  • 28. TXU’s Aspiration To Double The Size Of The Coal Portfolio Over The Next 5+ Years Coal Coal Capital Oper. capacity generation % of 2010 investment Earnings1 (GW) (TWh) target ($ billions) ($ billions) 0.02 36-47 1.0 2006 TXU 5.8 46 3-4 0.6 0.10 Sandow 5 0.5 4 11-14 2.0 0.35 Oak Grove 1.7 14 3-4 0.6 0.11 Other Texas existing sites 0.5 4 17-22 3.2 0.6 Organic growth 2.7 22 53-69 3.2 1.6 TXU today + Organic growth 8.5 68 31-47 3.9-7.7 0.8-1.6 Potential transactions 3.5-7.0 30-60 100 7.1-10.9 2.4-3.2 2010 Target 12-15.5 98-128 TXU is pursuing aamulti-pronged strategy of organic growth and TXU is pursuing multi-pronged strategy of organic growth and transactions to reach its portfolio goals transactions to reach its portfolio goals Based on $60/MWh power. 1 27 Does not include sustaining Capex. 2
  • 29. TXU Retail/Wholesale Is The Largest Competitive Retailer In A Growth Market Large Competitive Customer Base High Growth 05; Millions of customers 05E-14E; Percent annual growth 2.8 2.4 2.4 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 TXU RRI Direct First Green Gexa FRCC ERCOT MAAC MAIN ECAR Energy Choice Mountain WECC MRO SERC SPP NPCC Source: NERC Sources: KEMA, company filings Highly Competitive Market Strong Demand Oct 05; Number of certified ERCOT 03; Residential GWh/household retailers 15 15 15 15 15 14 105 103 11 10 10 75 56 7 7 39 01 02 03 04 05 LA TN AL FL MS TX US OH PA NY CA 28 Source: PUC Sources: EIA, BEA
  • 30. Based On Core Beliefs About Value Creation, TXU Energy Has Designed A Bottom-Up Business Unit Strategy TXU Retail/Wholesale TXU Energy’s TXU Energy’s top priority is top priority is to restore to restore Return The North Texas Opportunistically Build profitability to profitability to Consumer Franchise Profitable Businesses In North Texas To Profitability Other Customer Segments North Texas TXU will TXU will Introduce innovative Take advantage of higher continue to continue to products and pricing headroom opportunities monitor plans that meet customer monitor in South Texas to acquire opportunities needs and provide opportunities residential customers sustaining margins outside of outside of Texas Texas Continue to redefine Focus on higher margin customer service to customers in small, distinguish TXU Energy medium, and large from its competitors commercial segments Continue to drive cost leadership to Continue to advocate for a enhance competitiveness across all market-based structure that segments encourages competition 29
  • 31. Although Margins In This Business Are Currently Negative Due To High Gas Prices … North Texas Residential Headroom vs. Gas Price Since Market Open 02-05; Mixed measures Retail headroom1 Gas price2 $/MWh $/MMBtu 12-month 40 $12.00 Retail forward gas headroom price 30 $10.00 20 $8.00 10 $6.00 0 $4.00 -10 $2.00 -20 -30 $0.00 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- 02 02 02 02 03 03 03 03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 Based on average customer usage of 16,000 kWh/yr. with PUC-approved residential load profile; headroom defined as PTB rate – cost of energy (avg. NYMEX 12 mo. strip x 7.8 heat 1 rate x assumed 25% for load shaping, congestion, line losses and other ancillary costs) – avg. wires cost (based on published TXU Electric Delivery rates, excluding clawback). 30 NYMEX 12-month strip through 10/31/05. 2
  • 32. … They Are Expected To Improve With The Approved Fuel Factor Adjustment And Should Continue To Expand Over The Long Term Based Upon The Current Gas Curve Projected Headroom1 05E - 08E; $/MWh 27 3 10 Gross margin Net margin (5) 05E 06E - 08E Gas price2 $8.95 $9.71 The combination of the adjusted fuel factor and backwardation of the curve allow The combination of the adjusted fuel factor and backwardation of the curve allow headroom and net margins to recover to reasonable levels headroom and net margins to recover to reasonable levels Based on actual fuel factors through Oct-05 and $11.52/MMBtu for all future periods; assumes avg. customer usage of 16,000 kWh/yr. 1 31 Actual prices through Oct-05, forward prices based upon NYMEX curve as of 10/31/05. 2
  • 33. Long-Term Headroom Of Approximately $25/MWh Is Needed To Allow Competitors To Earn A Reasonable Risk Adjusted Return Attacker Gross And Net Margins With 7% Discount Breakeven Payback For New And Headroom Of $25/MWh1,2 Customer 07E; Months1,2 07E; $/MWh Attacker discount; % 25 10 5% 7% 10% Head- 2 $20 53 NA NA 10 room ($/MWh) $25 12 21 NA Net margin 9 2 Net margin $30 7 9 17 North Com- Acquisition Attacker Texas petitor cost gross Reasonable payback headroom discount margin With an average customer life of three years and competitive discounts of at least 5 – With an average customer life of three years and competitive discounts of at least 5 – 10%, headroom of over $20/MWh is needed for attackers to achieve positive economics 10%, headroom of over $20/MWh is needed for attackers to achieve positive economics TXU Energy margins estimated using NYMEX 10/31/05 gas strip for calendar 06, average consumption of 16.0 MWh per year. 1 Attacker economics based on above, with discounts from PTB as shown, acquisition costs of $105/customer amortized over 36 months, marginal SG&A of $3/MWh, and bad debt of 1.3%. 2 32
  • 34. The UK Experience Supports $20 - $30/MWh Headroom And Resilient Market Shares Incumbent Native Market Shares 01 - 04; Percent 69% 64% On an equivalent basis to 62% 61% On an equivalent basis to ERCOT, UK residential ERCOT, UK residential incumbents achieved incumbents achieved gross margins averaging gross margins averaging approximately $25/MWh approximately $25/MWh from 01 to 04 from 01 to 04 01 02 03 04 UK Retail Energy Gross Margins1 Six years after market Six years after market 01 - 04; $/MWh open, UK incumbents open, UK incumbents $26 continue to hold the $26 $25 continue to hold the $24 majority of their legacy majority of their legacy customers, while acquiring customers, while acquiring new customers in other new customers in other areas areas 01 02 03 04 Gross margins for combined electricity and gas customers (all major competitors offer both energy types and may discount either or both). Margins reported by Datamonitor and adjusted for 1 definitional differences between UK and TXU reporting. 01- 04 average FX of $1.60/£ assumed for all years. 33 Source: Datamonitor, PA Consulting, TXU Energy analysis
  • 35. TXU Electric Delivery Has An Advantaged Structural Position… Scope: Large Infrastructure Size: Large Customer Base 04; Thousands of miles of primary distribution lines 04; Millions of customers 146 5.3 5.2 105 4.2 4.2 87 87 3.1 3.0 2.9 69 2.6 69 65 63 2.3 2.2 59 54 TXU PCG EXC FPL SO ED TXU PGN ETR D DUK Source: FERC Source: Proprietary benchmarking study Demand: High Growth Supportive Regulatory Environment 05E-14E; Percent annual growth 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.3 Outstanding FRCC ERCOT MAAC MAIN ECAR Above Average WECC MRO SERC SPP NPCC Average Source: NERC Source: Banc of America Securities Research Below Average TXU Electric Delivery is a scale player in a high-growth region TXU Electric Delivery is a scale player in a high-growth region 34
  • 36. …And A Unique Business Model That Makes It Look More Like A FERC Transmission Or Pipeline System Than A Traditional Utility Traditional T&D Gas LDC’s Pipeline FERC TXU Electric comparables MLP’s Delivery TransCo Regulation State State FERC FERC State Capital tracker No No No Yes Yes1 Commodity risk Yes Yes No No No Retail customers Yes Yes No No No TXU Electric Delivery has higher growth and more progressive investment recovery TXU Electric Delivery has higher growth and more progressive investment recovery mechanisms than typical regulated transmission and distribution peer companies mechanisms than typical regulated transmission and distribution peer companies 35 For transmission and automated meter reading investments 1
  • 37. Based On Core Beliefs About Value Creation, TXU Electric Delivery Has Designed A Bottom-Up Business Unit Strategy TXU Electric Delivery Continue To Redefine Consolidate Regional T&D To Excellence In Texas Extract Synergies TXU will TXU will continue to drive continue to drive Scale TXU’s distinctive asset Focus on distinctive asset distinctive distinctive management capabilities management: optimize performance in performance in over a larger grid reliability and costs Texas while Texas while attempting to attempting to scale its scale its Take advantage of high Take a national role in operating edge operating edge growth market and technology through regionally regionally advantaged business leading technology model to invest in needed consortium and third infrastructure party infrastructure fund Integrate BPL and AMR into grid to help redefine service quality 36
  • 38. TXU Electric Delivery Has Achieved Top Quartile Reliability While Simultaneously Maintaining Top Quartile Costs Non-Storm SAIDI1 (n=33) O&M Costs2 Per Customer (n=33) 04; Minutes 04; $/customer 85.8 112.0 128.0 139.6 71.3 87.5 145.1 183.0 260 $220 234 $198 208 $176 182 $154 156 $132 130 $110 03 05 08 104 $88 05 03 78 $66 08 52 $44 26 $22 0 $0 3rd Quartile 3rd Quartile 1st Quartile 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 4th Quartile 2nd Quartile 4th Quartile Significant capital investments are planned to ensure consistent top quartile reliability, Significant capital investments are planned to ensure consistent top quartile reliability, while rigorous focus on cost efficiency will result in top decile cost performance by 08 while rigorous focus on cost efficiency will result in top decile cost performance by 08 TXU Electric Delivery is evaluating adoption of the IEEE 1366 standard for reporting reliability performance. Projected 2008 non-storm SAIDI calculated under this method would be 74.59.2. 1 37 Benchmark includes specific O&M accounts as well as maintenance capital. 2
  • 39. Based On A Rapidly Growing Market, And The Importance Of Keeping The Lights On, TXU Electric Delivery Is Investing In Needed Infrastructure Upgrades Automated meters Distribution Transmission North Texas Economic Cost Of One Minute TXU Electric Delivery Capex Budget of downtime1 03-08; $ millions 05: $ millions 9.6 850 875 7.3 825 75 750 75 75 25 600 350 350 543 325 375 300 300 2.2 450 425 425 350 300 243 0.1 Residential Commercial Industrial Total 03 04 05E 06E 07E 08E ••TXU Electric Delivery’s capital and technology deployment strategy is designed to TXU Electric Delivery’s capital and technology deployment strategy is designed to lower grid congestion, and increase system reliability lower grid congestion, and increase system reliability ••About 50% of TXU Electric Delivery’s capital is eligible for expedited recovery About 50% of TXU Electric Delivery’s capital is eligible for expedited recovery Outage cost/Customer also influenced by time of the day, season, region and duration of outage. 1 38 Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory study, 2004
  • 40. Today The ERCOT Grid Remains Fragmented . . . All Too Small: Share Of Gross Transmission And Distribution PPE 04; Percent 100% = $25 billion Publics and Co-ops TXU 25% 38% PNM 3% CNP AEP 22% 12% Nearly 40 public power companies and Nearly 40 public power companies and co-ops comprise 25% of the ERCOT market co-ops comprise 25% of the ERCOT market 39 Source: Energy Velocity
  • 41. …Offering An Opportunity Through Improvements In Efficiency And Reliability Relative Cost Position Relative Reliability Position SAIDI Total Cash Cost Per Customer 04; Minutes 04; $/customer 26% 25% 26% 25% 475 100 350 75 Weighted Avg Rest of TXU Weighted Avg Rest TXU ERCOT of ERCOT Driving the market to TXU Driving the market to TXU Reducing SAIDI by 25 minutes Reducing SAIDI by 25 minutes performance levels implies performance levels implies could save the Texas economy could save the Texas economy potential annual savings of potential annual savings of over $425 million annually over $425 million annually over $550 million over $550 million 40 Source: Texas Public Utilities Commission, FERC Form 1
  • 42. TXU Has Implemented A Process To Help Each Business Achieve Their Strategic Aspirations 2006 2007 2008 2009 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Transaction Electric Delivery • Technology consortium • Infrastructure fund • 1st Delivery transaction TXU Power • Sandow 5 online • Oak Grove online • 1st Power transaction 41
  • 43. Today’s Agenda • The TXU Turnaround TXU Today TXU Today • Core Strategic Principles • TXU Power Business Unit Business Unit • TXU Retail/Wholesale Strategies Strategies • TXU Electric Delivery • Natural Gas • Heat Rate Risk/Market Outlook Risk/Market Outlook • Capital Allocation Principles • Financial Outlook And Growth Financial Financial • Financial Sensitivities Principles Principles • Long-Term Sources And Uses Of Cash 42
  • 44. TXU Believes The Fundamentals Support Backwardation In The Natural Gas Curve… US And Canada Gas Supply And Demand Natural Gas Price Forecasts (12 Bcfd LNG addition) 06E-10E; $/MMBtu 10E; $/MMBtu 12 $12.00 2010 demand 10 $10.00 NYMEX 8 $8.00 Price range=$5.50-$7.00 6 $6.00 PIRA $4.00 4 $2.00 2 $0.00 0 06 07 08 09 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Cumulative Capacity Bcfd While the gas curve is backwardated, While the gas curve is backwardated, fundamentals still support historically high prices fundamentals still support historically high prices 43
  • 45. …And Significant Heat Rate Recovery Over The Next Ten Years ERCOT Market 7X24 Heat Rates (NYMEX) 06E-10E; MMBtu/MWh Equivalent to 2010 Henwood an 8.5 HSC estimate = 9.1 heat rate 9.9 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 8.1 0.0 7.7 2010 2006 Demand Demand Wind Unmothballing Baseload Long-term heat heat heat growth destruction generation of gas peakers capacity rate to support rate rate increases additions CCGT new build1 Details • 2% yearly • 1.1 GW of • 1.8 GW • 2.4 GW • Sandow 5 demand destruction (0.6 GW) growth • Oak Grove • 1.7 GW per (1.7 GW) year • S.A. Power (0.8 GW) The growth in ERCOT supports limited baseload expansion The growth in ERCOT supports limited baseload expansion 44 Based on $5.00 gas prices. 1
  • 46. Over The Next Three Years TXU Will Remain Relatively Neutral To Natural Gas And Become Longer Heat Rate Well Controlled: Natural Gas Position Growth Potential: Heat Rate Position 06E-08E; Million MMBtu 06E-08E; Million MWh 06E 07E 08E 06E 07E 08E Current baseload 470 460 460 Current baseload 61 61 62 production production Gas plants - - - Gas plants 5 5 6 Total “native long” 470 460 460 Total “native long” 66 66 68 position position Retail “short” (380) (330) (300) Retail “short” (50) (42) (38) position1 position1 PPAs/Tolls/Other (50) (80) (100) PPAs/Tolls/Other (3) 3 2 forward power and forward power and gas sales gas sales Expected underlying ~30-40 ~40-50 ~50-60 Expected underlying ~13 ~27 ~32 position position Percentage hedged 91-98% 89% 87-89% Percentage hedged 80% 59% 53% TXU has locked in ~ 90% of its natural gas exposure TXU has locked in ~ 90% of its natural gas exposure and is maintaining the majority of its long-term heat rate exposure and is maintaining the majority of its long-term heat rate exposure Assumes retail price remains constant 1 45
  • 47. TXU’s EBITDA Is Expected To Remain Relatively Insensitive To Natural Gas Price Changes And Heat Rate Changes EBITDA Impact Of $1/MMBtu EBITDA Impact of 0.2 MMBtu/MWh change in market heat rate1 change in natural gas 06E-08E; Percent 06E-08E; Percent <1.5% <1.5% <1.0% <1.0% <1.0% <1.0% 06E 07E 08E 06E 07E 08E Change in EBITDA ~30-40 ~40-50 ~50-60 ~30 ~50 ~55 $ millions Over the next three years, TXU has a small sensitivity to natural gas price and Over the next three years, TXU has a small sensitivity to natural gas price and heat rate changes due to the benefits of market hedges and its integrated heat rate changes due to the benefits of market hedges and its integrated portfolio portfolio 46 Based on 06 natural gas price = $11.00, 07 natural gas price = $9.65, 08 natural gas price = $8.49. 1
  • 48. TXU Also Manages Risk Through Its “Cash Scrubber” Retained for Investment Cash Flow TXU Business from Excess Excess Excess Units Oper- “Customer” Growth Financial Dividend ations Capital capital Flexibility Payout and Asset Yes Yes, if Yes, until Sales Yes in 06+ PV/ Investment Payout 30-40% Quality service EBITDA/Interest: PV/ Investment Payout 30-40% Quality service EBITDA/Interest: Repurchases threshold of 1.3 of operational Production >5.0 threshold of 1.3 of operational Production >5.0 or Distributions 25-35% cash earnings reliability Debt/EBITDA: 25-35% cash earnings reliability Debt/EBITDA: returned <5 yrs <2.5 returned <5 yrs <2.5 Debt/MEV: 30% Debt/MEV: 30% to 50% to 50% Equity Debt Holders Holders The cash scrubber will govern the allocation of operating The cash scrubber will govern the allocation of operating cash flow and the deployment of growth capital cash flow and the deployment of growth capital 47
  • 49. Today’s Agenda • The TXU Turnaround TXU Today TXU Today • Core Strategic Principles • TXU Power Business Unit Business Unit • TXU Retail/Wholesale Strategies Strategies • TXU Electric Delivery • Natural Gas • Heat Rate Risk/Market Outlook Risk/Market Outlook • Capital Allocation Principles • Financial Outlook And Growth Financial Financial • Financial Sensitivities Principles Principles • Long-Term Sources And Uses Of Cash 48
  • 50. TXU Is Focused On Achieving Balanced Financial Performance Increased Earning Power Increased Value Increased Increased Financial Returns Flexibility TXU’s ultimate financial objective is to TXU’s ultimate financial objective is to simultaneously improve all three economic dimensions simultaneously improve all three economic dimensions 49