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Lehman Brothers
2006 CEO Energy/Power Conference




            C. John Wilder
          Chairman and CEO
          September 6, 2006
Safe Harbor Statement
 This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks and
 uncertainties. Discussion of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ
 materially from management's current projections, forecasts, estimates and expectations is
 contained in the company's SEC filings. In addition to the risks and uncertainties set forth in the
 company's SEC filings, the forward-looking statements in this presentation could be affected by
 actions of rating agencies, delays in implementing any future price-to-beat fuel factor adjustments,
 the ability of the company to attract and retain profitable customers, changes in demand for
 electricity, the impact of weather, changes in wholesale electricity prices or energy commodity
 prices, the company’s ability to hedge against changes in commodity prices and market heat rates,
 the company’s ability to fund certain investments described herein, delays in approval of, or failure
 to obtain, air and other environmental permits, changes in competitive market rules, changes in
 environmental laws or regulations, changes in electric generation and emissions control
 technologies, changes in projected demand for electricity in Texas, the ability of the company to
 attract and retain skilled labor for planning and building new generating units, changes in the cost
 and availability of materials necessary for the planned new generation units, the ability of the
 company to manage the significant construction program to a timely conclusion with limited cost
 overruns, the ability of the company to implement the initiatives that are part of its performance
 improvement program and growth strategy, and the terms under which the company executes those
 initiatives, and the decisions made and actions taken as a result of the company’s financial and
 growth strategies.




                                                                                                         1
Generation Development Discussion Topics At Upcoming Investor
Meetings


             Conference              Theme                 Date
                             Generation technology
                             review
   1   Lehman Brothers                                   Today
                             Generation development
                             investment thesis

                             Competitive dynamics in
   2   Investor Conference                               Sep 26-27
                             the generation industry




   3   EEI                   New market entry strategy   Nov 6-7




                                                                     2
Today’s Agenda


                  Core advantaged businesses
     TXU Today
                  Business objectives


                  Value drivers and uncertainties
    Technology    ERCOT market macroeconomic drivers
      Review      Technology evaluation
                  IGCC/SCPC comparison

                  Advantaged construction and operating model
    Development
                  Superior generation profile
     Investment
                  Access to hedging markets
       Thesis
                  Ability to access capital markets


                  TXU: Meeting power challenges today and in
     Conclusion
                  the future

                                                                3
TXU’s Core Businesses Are Structurally Advantaged Across The Entire
Value Chain
                                                                                TXU Regulated
                        TXU Competitive Business
                                                                                  Business

                                                                                Transmission
           Generation                                            Retail              and
                                             Wholesale
                                                                                 Distribution
     Power            TXU Power            TXU Wholesale       TXU Energy        TXU Electric
   Development                                                                     Delivery
    Company

                        2nd largest U.S.                                         6th largest U.S.
  Announced 9.0                              Access to         Large scale
  GW development        deregulated          largest ERCOT     competitive       T&D company
  program               output               generation        retailer
                                                                                 Top quartile
                                             fleet
  25-35% lower          Access to low                          Loyal customer    costs and
  construction cost     cost lignite         Access to         base              reliability
  and time through      reserves             largest ERCOT
                                                               Strong brand      High growth
  reference plant                            retail position
                        63 TWh of                              recognition       NERC region
  Industry-leading      baseload             Incumbent                           (2.3%)
                                                               Superior
  performance and       production in a      expertise in
                                                               service           Efficient capital
  reliability           gas on the           regulatory
                                                                                 recovery
                        margin market        advocacy and
                                             market design                       No commodity
                                                                                 exposure
                                                                                 No retail
                                                                                 customers           4
TXU’s Long-Term Objectives

 1. Drive 3-5% annual improvement in reliability, efficiency, and
  1. Drive 3-5% annual improvement in reliability, efficiency, and
     service through power, electric delivery, and retail operations
      service through power, electric delivery, and retail operations

 2. Meet the growing demand for power in Texas by increasing
  2. Meet the growing demand for power in Texas by increasing
     baseload power generation portfolio by 9 GW
     baseload power generation portfolio by 9 GW

 3. Maintain residential market share throughout Texas by profitably
  3. Maintain residential market share throughout Texas by profitably
     gaining customers outside of North Texas and providing
      gaining customers outside of North Texas and providing
     innovative products and services to customers state-wide
      innovative products and services to customers state-wide

 4. Leverage superior baseload operations, construction expertise,
  4. Leverage superior baseload operations, construction expertise,
     and structuring skills to build a 3-5 GW business in other
      and structuring skills to build a 3-5 GW business in other
     competitive U.S. wholesale markets
      competitive U.S. wholesale markets

 5. Continue to enhance business through building strong
  5. Continue to enhance business through building strong
     management and ensuring financial risk profile is commensurate
     management and ensuring financial risk profile is commensurate
     with business risk profile
     with business risk profile
                                                                        5
Today’s Agenda



                  Core advantaged businesses
     TXU Today
                  Business objectives


                  Value drivers and uncertainties
     Technology   ERCOT market macroeconomic drivers
       Review     Technology evaluation
                  IGCC/SCPC comparison

                  Advantaged construction and operating model
    Development
                  Superior generation profile
     Investment
                  Access to hedging markets
       Thesis
                  Ability to access capital markets


                  TXU: Meeting power challenges today and in
     Conclusion
                  the future

                                                                6
Gas Price Fundamentals And Reliance On Gas-Fired Generation Have
Placed Texas’ Power Supply At Risk
    Growing supply deficit for US natural gas…                                      …and increased reliance on foreign reserves…
                                                                                    05; Percent (100% = 6,338 Tcf)
    95-10E; Tcf
                                                                                                                       Russia
     25                                                                                                           27
                                                                   US                    Other 41
     23
                                                                   demand
     21
                                                                                                                  15
     19
                                                                   US supply                                            Iran
                                                                                                      3   14
     17
                                                                                                    US
           95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
                                                                                                          Qatar
…have driven high and volatile prices…                                              …that have flowed to the Texas power supply
95-10E; $/MMBtu1                                                                    05; Percent (100% = 83 GW)

     12                                                          367%
                                                                 367%                                                  Non-gas
     10
                                                                                                                  28
      8
      6
      4
      2
                                                                                             Gas 72
      0
           95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
                                                                                                                                 7
1   Projected prices from 06-10 based on calendar strip prices as of Aug 31, 2006
A Strong Economy Combined With Limited Capacity Additions Have
Driven Volatile, Historically High Electric Prices
Texas’ strong demand growth…                  …combined with long lead time investments…

  Regional electricity demand growth             Estimated construction times by technology
  05-10E; Percent CAGR                           06E; Months
      2.4
              2.3                                                                   120
                      2.1
                            1.7   1.7
                                                                            72
                                                                     45
                                                           24


     FRCC ERCOT WECC SERC SPP                          CCGT          PC    IGCC Nuclear
…could result in declining reserve margins…   …and expectations of continued high prices
                                                  North Texas residential retail prices
  Reserve margins
                                                  02-10; $/MWh
  05-10E; Percent
                                                     200
        16.9
                                        60%
                                        60%                          81%
                                                                     81%
                                                     150

                          6.8                        100

                                                      50

                                                       0
          05              10E                                                                  8
                                                                02    04   06     08      10
The Uncertainty Of Carbon Regulation Makes The Energy Challenge
Facing The US Even Tougher
Where to start?: Avg. annual global CO2 emissions             What countries?: Man-made CO2 emissions
90-99; Billion metric tons per year                           03-10E; Billion metric tons per year
                                                                              21               30
                                                              100% =
    100% = 790

                                                                              36
                                                              ROW                              45
                                                                              17
Natural                                          Man made     China
                                                                                               19
                                             3
sources                                          sources of
                                                                              20
             97                                               EU
of CO2                                           CO2                                           15
                                                                              27
                                                              US                               21

                                                                              03               10
What sectors?: US CO2 emissions                               What impact?: Real GDP impacts of regulation
03; Million metric tons of CO2                                20E; Basis points of GDP growth
                                                                       Kyoto Jeffords Carper        NCEP
                                                 5,878
                                1,793
                                                                                                     -3
                                                                                   -10   -10
                   1,801

     2,284


                                                                        -76
      Power    Transportation Industrial,        Total
    generation                commercial,
                                                                                                             9
                               residential
TXU Examined All Parts Of The Electric Value Chain To Help Meet The
Texas Energy Challenge
                                                        Estimated
                                                       06-10 impact
        Segment               Potential               GW equivalent            TXU initiatives
                     Improved efficiency                     0.1-0.4   Time of use offering
      Retail         Increased conservation                            Green products
  1                                                                    Market tracker pricing


                     Improved reliability                    0.0-0.1   Smart grid upgrades
      Transmission                                                     Infrastrux partnership
  2                                                                    Broadband over power lines
                                                                       (BPL)

      Current        Improved efficiency                        0.2    TXU Operating System
      generation     Improved reliability                              Reliability Optimization Initiative
  3   assets                                                           (ROI)
                     Improved environmental
                     performance

      New build      Increased renewables                       9.3    Largest Texas wind provider
      generation     Increased baseload supply                         9.1 GW of new generation
  4   assets         State of the art environmental                    Largest voluntary commitment –
                     controls                                          20% emissions reduction



                     The size of the Texas energy challenge ultimately
                      The size of the Texas energy challenge ultimately
                         requires an efficient generation solution
                          requires an efficient generation solution                                          10
TXU Will Invest In The Optimal Technologies Across The Right Time
Horizons To Meet Its Customers’ Needs                       Competitive
                                                                  technology
                           Horizon 1                 Horizon 2
          Technology       0-5 years                 5-15 years

                        Constructible
Wind                    Cost effective
                        with subsidies

                        Constructible
Gas
                        Reliable

                         Constructible
SCPC                     Reliable
                         Cost effective
                                                      Constructible
IGCC                                                  Reliable
                                                      Cost effective

                                                      Constructible
                                                      Reliable
Nuclear
                                                      Cost effective
                                                                               11
While The Characteristics Of Wind Generation Make It Difficult To Meet
The Baseload Demand Of Texas…


      Wind availability versus hourly electricity demand in ERCOT
      06; Percent


          100

            80
                                                                                    Hourly
                                                                At peak demand      demand
            60                                                   periods wind
                                                               averages less than
            40                                                   20% capacity       Wind
                                                                                    capacity
            20

              0
                  1                5              9       13        17         21
                                                      Hours


      Not only does wind peak in the off peak hours, it peaks during the shoulder months
       Not only does wind peak in the off peak hours, it peaks during the shoulder months

Source: AWEA Second Quarter Market Report, July                                                12
… Wind Must Be Part Of The Solution

TXU plans to double its wind portfolio                    …furthering Texas as the nation’s leader
by 2010…                                                  in wind generation capacity

   TXU wind generation purchases                            Total wind generation capacity
   05-10E; MW                                               06; MW

                                                  146%
                                                  146%

                                                             2,370
                                                  1,425               2,325
                                     1,260
                          1,100
                 930


      580
                                                                               825      800




      06E        07E        08E       09E         10E          TX      CA       IA      MN



                           TXU is the largest purchaser of wind generation in Texas
                            TXU is the largest purchaser of wind generation in Texas

Source: AWEA Second Quarter Market Report, July                                                      13
There Must Be Regulatory, Capital, And Spent Fuel Breakthroughs To
Make Nuclear Generation Competitive in Horizon 2

High construction costs…                               …combined with long                …result in a high total cost
                                                       lead times…                        relative to coal


Construction costs                                     Installation time                  Breakeven power price
06E; $/kW                                              06E; Months                        06E; $/MWh
                                       127%                                    167%                             50%
                                       127%                                    167%                             50%
                                                                                                          74
                           2,500                                                             68-71
                                                                            120
                                                                                              20

                                                                                     Carbon1 48-51
     1,100                                                     45



SCPC coal                Nuclear                        SCPC coal          Nuclear         SCPC coal    Nuclear


                                 The lack of aalong-term spent fuel solution also makes
                                  The lack of long-term spent fuel solution also makes
                                        nuclear aalonger-term generation solution
                                         nuclear longer-term generation solution

1 Based   on potential carbon scenario with current European ETS pricing                                                 14
IGCC Was Considered As Part Of The Technology Review But Was
Ultimately Seen Only As A Potential Solution In Horizon 2

 1. IGCC technology is unproven on coals available in Texas – lignite
  1. IGCC technology is unproven on coals available in Texas – lignite
     and PRB coals have a moisture content that is too high for IGCC
      and PRB coals have a moisture content that is too high for IGCC
     today
      today

 2. The total power price is not competitive relative to other
  2. The total power price is not competitive relative to other
     technologies – higher construction costs and lower capacity
      technologies – higher construction costs and lower capacity
     factors translate to breakeven power prices of $71-74/MWh
      factors translate to breakeven power prices of $71-74/MWh

 3. Estimated construction times would not meet ERCOT market
  3. Estimated construction times would not meet ERCOT market
     needs – the 72 month construction timeframe does not allow new
      needs – the 72 month construction timeframe does not allow new
     capacity to enter the market until 2012
      capacity to enter the market until 2012

 4. It is unclear if IGCC provides a better carbon alternative –
  4. It is unclear if IGCC provides a better carbon alternative –
     although capture is potentially more efficient with IGCC than
      although capture is potentially more efficient with IGCC than
     SCPC, total costs are significantly higher
      SCPC, total costs are significantly higher


                                                                         15
The Combination Of Gas Fundamentals And Improvements In
Supercritical Coal Make It The Winning Economic Technology Today…
Coal is a relatively low cost fuel source…   …in abundant supply in the US
  Fuel cost                                    US reserves
  06; $/MMBtu                                  04; Years of remaining reserves
         9.22                         84%
                                      84%                                           1,900%
                                                                                    1,900%
                                                                       200




                        1.50
                                                      10

       Gas              Coal                         Gas              Coal
Coal technology has become more cost         …and emissions have been reduced
effective…                                   dramatically
  Improvements in construction cost            NOx emissions from US power plants
  95-05; Percent reduction                     05; Lbs/MMBtu

                                                                                     85%
                          45                                                         85%
                                      104%
                                      104%         0.33
          22

                                                                        0.03-0.13
                                                               0.05

                                                 US avg.    TXU new          Gas
                                                                                             16
                                                  coal        coal
         Gas             Coal
…And TXU Has Proposed An Innovative Solution To Make Supercritical
Coal A Winning Environmental Technology…


                                                 SO2             NOx                Hg

                                            Tons     Lbs/ Tons       Lbs/     Tons       Lbs/
  Estimated key emissions rates             (000)    MWh (000)       MWh      (000)      MWh

  2005 emissions (9 existing units)         273.1      11.6   42.1     1.79 0.0025 0.00011


  Emissions after adding 11 new units
                                            218.5       3.6   33.7     0.55 0.0020 0.00003
  (20 units total)


  Percent change from 2005 emissions          (20)     (69)   (20)     (69)    (20)       (69)



  TXU has committed to the largest voluntary emissions reduction in US history
   TXU has committed to the largest voluntary emissions reduction in US history
  TXU will more than double its capacity while cutting key emissions by 20%
   TXU will more than double its capacity while cutting key emissions by 20%
  TXU is investing up to $2.5 billion on state of the art environmental controls
   TXU is investing up to $2.5 billion on state of the art environmental controls

                                                                                                 17
…Helping To Provide Texas With One Of The Cleanest Generation Fleets
In The Country…


      Average NOx emission rates for 10 most populous states
      04; Lbs/MMBtu

                                                                                0.42



                                                                         0.30
                                                                  0.30
                                                          0.29
                                                  0.28
                                           0.27
                                    0.25
                             0.24

                      0.18
               0.12


        0.02

         CA    TX     NY     GA     NJ      IL    FL     US avg   PA     MI     OH


         Improvements in coal will continue to increase efficiency of the Texas
          Improvements in coal will continue to increase efficiency of the Texas
                     portfolio and reduce its emissions profile
                      portfolio and reduce its emissions profile
Source: TCEQ                                                                           18
…And Making TXU The Cleanest Large-Scale Coal Fleet In US
                                                     NOx emissions                          Hg emissions
SO2 emissions
                                                     Lbs/MMBtu                              Millionths of lbs/MMBtu
Lbs/MMBtu
         1
                              63%                                                     82%
                                                        TXU1
                 0.37                                                0.06                        C      2.39
  TXU
                                                                                                                          30%
                                                                                              TXU1        3.00
     A            0.47                                     B          0.10
     B            0.49                                     G            0.20                     F        3.08
                                                                                                          3.12
                    0.66                                                 0.24                    P
     C                                                     F
                                                                                                  I        3.33
     D               0.73                                  K               0.29
     E                0.76                                 N               0.30                  Q         3.38
                                                                                                 A         3.46
                       0.88                                                0.30
     F                                                     H
                                                                                                 D          3.79
     G                  0.95                               E                0.32
                                                                                                             3.89
     H                  0.98                               J                0.33                 K
                                                                                                 J           3.98
      I                  0.98                         US avg                0.33
                                                                                            US avg            4.25
US avg                   1.00                              L                0.34
                                                                                                 G             4.43
                          1.05                                              0.34
     J                                                     R
                                                                                                 E             4.55
     K                    1.05                             C                0.35
                                                                                                                4.91
                                                                                                 H
     L                      1.23                           P                0.35
                                                                                                 O               5.08
                            1.26                                             0.35
     M                                                     D
                                                                                                 L               5.11
     N                       1.27                          Q                 0.36
                                                                                                 N               5.12
     O                       1.29                          O                  0.39
                                                                                                 R                5.41
                              1.34                                            0.40
     P                                                      I
                                                                                                                    5.98
                                                                                                 M
     Q                           1.61                      A                  0.41
                                                                                                                     6.31
                                  1.67                                         0.42              B
     R                                                     M


  The combination of investment in the newest emissions control technology and
   The combination of investment in the newest emissions control technology and
        an innovative voluntary retrofit program will make TXU’s coal fleet the
         an innovative voluntary retrofit program will make TXU’s coal fleet the
                        cleanest large-scale fleet in the nation
                         cleanest large-scale fleet in the nation
1 TXU after new power generation development program and retrofits
                                                                                                                                19
Source: 2004 EPA
Supercritical Coal Will Be A Competitive Technology Even In A Carbon
Constrained World Evidenced By Decisions Being Made Today In Europe

      Levelized breakeven power cost                           European announced new
                                                               build capacity
      $/MWh
                                                               11+; Percent (100%=54 GW)

                                                                               Other
          86 - 124                                                                         Coal
                      84 - 99                                                   5
                                                                 Wind
                                    74         68-101
With CO2 15 - 50
                      10 - 25
capture
                                                                                            40
                                                20-50                33
                        74
          71-74
No CO2
                                                48-51
capture
                                                                           5           4
                                                                                 13
                                                                 Nuclear
          IGCC                  Advanced         TXU
                      CCGT                                                                 IGCC
                                 nuclear      reference                         Natural
                                                plant                           gas

    It is likely that over time the retrofit solutions will become even more efficient
    It is likely that over time the retrofit solutions will become even more efficient
    Even in markets facing carbon constraints, pulverized coal is the technology of
    Even in markets facing carbon constraints, pulverized coal is the technology of
    choice
    choice
                                                                                                  20
The Challenge Over The Next Horizon Is To Make Other Technologies
Competitive With SCPC
              Gas price required to put CCGT                     Construction cost required to     Construction cost required to
              in parity with SCPC                                put nuclear in parity with SCPC   put IGCC in parity with SCPC
              06E; $/MMBtu                                       06E; $/kW                         06E; $/kW


                                        5.40
                                                                                                                   950
                                                                                                       880
                                                                                       2,250
                      3.80

                                                                            1,400




                                                                   No carbon        $20 carbon     No carbon   $20 carbon
            No carbon $20 carbon
                                                                                       tax1                       tax1
                                                                      tax                             tax
                         tax1
               tax
Improvement
                49%      28%                                            44%            10%            51%          47%
relative to
base case

           Other technologies need to be improved to match the performance of SCPC
           Other technologies need to be improved to match the performance of SCPC
           Continued productivity improvements in SCPC will make the gap wider
           Continued productivity improvements in SCPC will make the gap wider
1
                                                                                                                             21
    Based on potential carbon scenario with current European ETS pricing.
TXU Will Invest In The Optimal Technologies Across The Right Time
Horizons To Meet Its Customers’ Needs
                              Horizon 1                       Horizon 2
              Technology      0-5 years                       5-15 years

                             Constructible
    Wind
                             Cost effective
                             with subsidies


    Gas                      Constructible
                             Reliable



    SCPC                     Constructible
                             Reliable
                             Cost effective

                                                              Constructible
    IGCC                                                      Reliable
                                     Capacity additions       Cost effective
                                   represent 12% of 06-20
                                     US demand growth         Constructible
                                                              Reliable
    Nuclear                                                   Cost effective

                           Technology         GW            Technology         GW
                           Wind                1.5          Wind                3.0
    TXU aspiration:
                           SCPC               20.0          SCPC               30.0
  balanced portfolio of
                           IGCC                0.0          IGCC                6.0
     state of the art      Nuclear             2.5          Nuclear             8.0
       generation          Total              24.0          Total              47.0   22
Today’s Agenda


                  Core advantaged businesses
     TXU Today
                  Business objectives


                  Value drivers and uncertainties
    Technology    ERCOT market macroeconomic drivers
      Review      Technology evaluation
                  IGCC/SCPC comparison

                  Advantaged construction and operating model
    Development
                  Superior generation profile
     Investment
                  Access to hedging markets
       Thesis
                  Ability to access capital markets


                  TXU: Meeting power challenges today and in
     Conclusion
                  the future

                                                                23
The Core Advantages Of TXU Power Development Company Translate
Into A Unique Investment Thesis

An advantaged                           …creates a superior           …allowing access to       …and the ability to
construction and                        generation profile…           the forward hedging       better access the
operating model…                                                      markets…                  capital markets


• Exclusive                             • A 30% improvement           • 2010 on line dates      • Stability of cash
  arrangements with                       in construction               allow access to the       flows provides better
                                          costs1
  industry leading                                                      liquid NYMEX market       access to debt
  construction firms                                                                              markets
                                        • A 30% improvement           • All in cost advantage
• A scaled build that                     in construction time          makes TXU natural       • Timing and
  takes advantage of                                                    provider of long term     resiliency of cash
  lean operating                                                        PPA’s                     flows provides better
                                        • A $15/MWh total cost
  principles                                                                                      access to equity
                                          advantage
                                                                                                  markets
• Top decile operator
  in reliability and
  costs



                       The investment thesis is based on bringing together best in class
                        The investment thesis is based on bringing together best in class
                                  construction with best in class operations
                                   construction with best in class operations
1   Based on average announced new build cost estimate of $1,600/kW                                                   24
The Scale Of An 8 Unit Reference Plant Build-Out…

 The TXU program allowed suppliers to                        …translating to step change
 remove waste from their process…                            improvements in delivery time
 Overall equipment effectiveness                             Number of units
 Percent                                                                                34%
                                           31%
                                           31%           9
                                                               TXU reference
                                                         8     plant program
                                    3         85         7
                          5
               12
                                                         6
     65
                                                         5
                                                         4
                                                         3
                                                                                        Eight
                                                         2                              individual
                                                                                        steam turbine
                                                         1
                                                                                        unit build-out
                                                         0
   Typical    Reduced   Reduced   Reduced Optimized
                                                             10 14 18 22 26 30 34 38 42 46 50
 equipment      die      speed     rework equipment
effectiveness change-    losses          effectiveness                         Months
               overs

       By utilizing 100% of GE’s manufacturing space in Schenectady, TXU was able
        By utilizing 100% of GE’s manufacturing space in Schenectady, TXU was able
             to move the turbine equipment off of the construction critical path
              to move the turbine equipment off of the construction critical path
                                                                                                         25
...Combined With The Application Of Lean Principles Throughout Every
Part Of The Construction Process…
                                                                                       . . . and has supported equipment
                                                                                       and materials procurement
TXU has completed most of the “lean” workouts . . .
                                                                                         Reference Plant material and
Lean improvement workout status
                                                                                         equipment
                                        Potential     Ideas       Decisions
% Complete                                                                               % Complete
                                        identified    generated   taken
                                                                                                             100% = $4.2B
                                        0%           33%      66%       100%
           Foundations/site prep
           Boiler structural steel                                                             Purchased            25
           Critical piping                                                                     later
           Critical valves
           Feed and condensate system
                                                                                               Proposals
           Condensate chem. controls
                                                                                                                    25
                                                                                               in review
           Plant structural steel                                              100%
Cost/
           Chimney                                                             total
Design
           Coal handling
                                                                                               In negotiation       10
           Cooling towers
           Electrical controls/DCS
           Raceway and cable
           Transformers
                                                                                               Acquired             40
           Scope optimization

          Start up and commissioning
          Structural steel erection
                                                                                                                8 Reference
Schedule/ Boiler erection                                                      85%
                                                                                                                   Plants
          Turbine erection
Process                                                                        total
          Chem clean and airblows
           Hydro to turbine roll




                                                                                                                              26
… Have Redefined The Construction Of A Coal Plant…

   Estimated development cost                Estimated development time
   06E; $/kW                                 06E; Months

                      31%                                             30%
       1,600
                                                     63
                     1,100
                                                                       44




      Typical    TXU reference                    Typical          TXU reference
     developer       plant                       developer             plant

                   TXU has reaped the benefits of a scale build
                    TXU has reaped the benefits of a scale build
                     program on the reference plant concept
                      program on the reference plant concept

                                                                                   27
… And Will Allow TXU To Provide Lower Cost Power Than Its Competitors

        Breakeven power price
        06; $/MWh
                                                                           24%
                              10
            63-66
                                                4
                                                               1
                                                                            48-51




                          Capital cost    Build schedule     Operational      TXU
           Typical
                           advantage         advantage       advantage     reference
          competitor
                                                                             plant
            build       ($1,600 $1,100)    (6 yrs 4 yrs)   (CF 90% 94%
                                                            FOM $24/kW-
                                                           yr $20/kW-yr)

  IRR       6.3%            3.9%              1.3%             0.7%          12.2%


                       The TXU model provides a $15/MWh all-in cost
                        The TXU model provides a $15/MWh all-in cost
                            advantage over the typical developer
                             advantage over the typical developer

                                                                                       28
The Shorter Construction Timeline Allows TXU To Access The Forward
Gas Market To Economically Hedge Output

               Liquidity of NYMEX gas market
               06-12; Average daily contract transactions
                                                  All TXU                      Competitor
                    9,750                         plants online                plants online
                            7,550



                                       3,000
                                                  1,025       975
                                                                         350           0

                     06       07        08          09         10         11          12
DevCo position       1.9      2.5       6.3        18.3       19.2       53.7         n/a
relative to total
market
(Percent)

         The drop off in liquidity makes it difficult for aaplant coming on line in 2012 or
          The drop off in liquidity makes it difficult for plant coming on line in 2012 or
                later to materially hedge its output through the NYMEX market
                 later to materially hedge its output through the NYMEX market
                                                                                               29
The Combination Of Superior Performance And Ability To Hedge Will
Make TXU’s Investment Thesis Attractive To Both The Debt And Equity


   Distribution of value
   06; Percent of trials

   Typical developer                                        TXU reference plant




 P (NPV < 0) = 75%                                      P (NPV < 0) = 5%




                                    0

                                   NPV
                                   06; $ millions


        TXU’s new build strategy significantly decreases the risks associated with
         TXU’s new build strategy significantly decreases the risks associated with
              high capital cost, long lead-time coal generation investments
               high capital cost, long lead-time coal generation investments

                                                                                      30
Today’s Agenda


                  Core advantaged businesses
     TXU Today
                  Business objectives


                  Value drivers and uncertainties
    Technology    ERCOT market macroeconomic drivers
      Review      Technology evaluation
                  IGCC/SCPC comparison

                  Advantaged construction and operating model
    Development
                  Superior generation profile
     Investment
                  Access to hedging markets
       Thesis
                  Ability to access capital markets


                  TXU: Meeting power challenges today and in
     Conclusion
                  the future

                                                                31
TXU: Meeting America’s Electric Power Challenges Today And In The
Future
 1. Investing today in 99GW of new generation to help meet Texas’ energy challenges
  1. Investing today in GW of new generation to help meet Texas’ energy challenges
    –– Providing energy security by improving 2010 reserve margins from 6.8% to 20.5%
        Providing energy security by improving 2010 reserve margins from 6.8% to 20.5%
    –– Reducing ERCOT wholesale prices by up to $1.7 billion annually
        Reducing ERCOT wholesale prices by up to $1.7 billion annually
    –– Doubling capacity while reducing key emissions by 20%
        Doubling capacity while reducing key emissions by 20%

 2. Investing for tomorrow in the next horizon of clean, reliable and efficient generation
  2. Investing for tomorrow in the next horizon of clean, reliable and efficient generation
    –– Working with manufacturers to drive performance in technologies like IGCC and
         Working with manufacturers to drive performance in technologies like IGCC and
        nuclear
         nuclear
    –– Implementing the next generation of environmental retrofits for SO2, ,NOX, ,and Hg
         Implementing the next generation of environmental retrofits for SO2 NOX and Hg
    –– Investigating the next generation of carbon separation technologies for
         Investigating the next generation of carbon separation technologies for
        supercritical coal
         supercritical coal

 3. Executing the ERCOT development program by redefining high performance
  3. Executing the ERCOT development program by redefining high performance
     generation construction and operations
      generation construction and operations
    –– Partnering exclusively with world class developers to reduce time and cost to
         Partnering exclusively with world class developers to reduce time and cost to
        construct by up to 30%
         construct by up to 30%
    –– Combining lower cost construction with world class operations to deliver
         Combining lower cost construction with world class operations to deliver
        customers aaproduct $15/MWh cheaper than competitors
         customers product $15/MWh cheaper than competitors
    –– Leveraging the operational advantages to access lower cost capital for funding
         Leveraging the operational advantages to access lower cost capital for funding

                                                                                          32

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energy future holindings txu_090606

  • 1. Lehman Brothers 2006 CEO Energy/Power Conference C. John Wilder Chairman and CEO September 6, 2006
  • 2. Safe Harbor Statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Discussion of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from management's current projections, forecasts, estimates and expectations is contained in the company's SEC filings. In addition to the risks and uncertainties set forth in the company's SEC filings, the forward-looking statements in this presentation could be affected by actions of rating agencies, delays in implementing any future price-to-beat fuel factor adjustments, the ability of the company to attract and retain profitable customers, changes in demand for electricity, the impact of weather, changes in wholesale electricity prices or energy commodity prices, the company’s ability to hedge against changes in commodity prices and market heat rates, the company’s ability to fund certain investments described herein, delays in approval of, or failure to obtain, air and other environmental permits, changes in competitive market rules, changes in environmental laws or regulations, changes in electric generation and emissions control technologies, changes in projected demand for electricity in Texas, the ability of the company to attract and retain skilled labor for planning and building new generating units, changes in the cost and availability of materials necessary for the planned new generation units, the ability of the company to manage the significant construction program to a timely conclusion with limited cost overruns, the ability of the company to implement the initiatives that are part of its performance improvement program and growth strategy, and the terms under which the company executes those initiatives, and the decisions made and actions taken as a result of the company’s financial and growth strategies. 1
  • 3. Generation Development Discussion Topics At Upcoming Investor Meetings Conference Theme Date Generation technology review 1 Lehman Brothers Today Generation development investment thesis Competitive dynamics in 2 Investor Conference Sep 26-27 the generation industry 3 EEI New market entry strategy Nov 6-7 2
  • 4. Today’s Agenda Core advantaged businesses TXU Today Business objectives Value drivers and uncertainties Technology ERCOT market macroeconomic drivers Review Technology evaluation IGCC/SCPC comparison Advantaged construction and operating model Development Superior generation profile Investment Access to hedging markets Thesis Ability to access capital markets TXU: Meeting power challenges today and in Conclusion the future 3
  • 5. TXU’s Core Businesses Are Structurally Advantaged Across The Entire Value Chain TXU Regulated TXU Competitive Business Business Transmission Generation Retail and Wholesale Distribution Power TXU Power TXU Wholesale TXU Energy TXU Electric Development Delivery Company 2nd largest U.S. 6th largest U.S. Announced 9.0 Access to Large scale GW development deregulated largest ERCOT competitive T&D company program output generation retailer Top quartile fleet 25-35% lower Access to low Loyal customer costs and construction cost cost lignite Access to base reliability and time through reserves largest ERCOT Strong brand High growth reference plant retail position 63 TWh of recognition NERC region Industry-leading baseload Incumbent (2.3%) Superior performance and production in a expertise in service Efficient capital reliability gas on the regulatory recovery margin market advocacy and market design No commodity exposure No retail customers 4
  • 6. TXU’s Long-Term Objectives 1. Drive 3-5% annual improvement in reliability, efficiency, and 1. Drive 3-5% annual improvement in reliability, efficiency, and service through power, electric delivery, and retail operations service through power, electric delivery, and retail operations 2. Meet the growing demand for power in Texas by increasing 2. Meet the growing demand for power in Texas by increasing baseload power generation portfolio by 9 GW baseload power generation portfolio by 9 GW 3. Maintain residential market share throughout Texas by profitably 3. Maintain residential market share throughout Texas by profitably gaining customers outside of North Texas and providing gaining customers outside of North Texas and providing innovative products and services to customers state-wide innovative products and services to customers state-wide 4. Leverage superior baseload operations, construction expertise, 4. Leverage superior baseload operations, construction expertise, and structuring skills to build a 3-5 GW business in other and structuring skills to build a 3-5 GW business in other competitive U.S. wholesale markets competitive U.S. wholesale markets 5. Continue to enhance business through building strong 5. Continue to enhance business through building strong management and ensuring financial risk profile is commensurate management and ensuring financial risk profile is commensurate with business risk profile with business risk profile 5
  • 7. Today’s Agenda Core advantaged businesses TXU Today Business objectives Value drivers and uncertainties Technology ERCOT market macroeconomic drivers Review Technology evaluation IGCC/SCPC comparison Advantaged construction and operating model Development Superior generation profile Investment Access to hedging markets Thesis Ability to access capital markets TXU: Meeting power challenges today and in Conclusion the future 6
  • 8. Gas Price Fundamentals And Reliance On Gas-Fired Generation Have Placed Texas’ Power Supply At Risk Growing supply deficit for US natural gas… …and increased reliance on foreign reserves… 05; Percent (100% = 6,338 Tcf) 95-10E; Tcf Russia 25 27 US Other 41 23 demand 21 15 19 US supply Iran 3 14 17 US 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 Qatar …have driven high and volatile prices… …that have flowed to the Texas power supply 95-10E; $/MMBtu1 05; Percent (100% = 83 GW) 12 367% 367% Non-gas 10 28 8 6 4 2 Gas 72 0 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 7 1 Projected prices from 06-10 based on calendar strip prices as of Aug 31, 2006
  • 9. A Strong Economy Combined With Limited Capacity Additions Have Driven Volatile, Historically High Electric Prices Texas’ strong demand growth… …combined with long lead time investments… Regional electricity demand growth Estimated construction times by technology 05-10E; Percent CAGR 06E; Months 2.4 2.3 120 2.1 1.7 1.7 72 45 24 FRCC ERCOT WECC SERC SPP CCGT PC IGCC Nuclear …could result in declining reserve margins… …and expectations of continued high prices North Texas residential retail prices Reserve margins 02-10; $/MWh 05-10E; Percent 200 16.9 60% 60% 81% 81% 150 6.8 100 50 0 05 10E 8 02 04 06 08 10
  • 10. The Uncertainty Of Carbon Regulation Makes The Energy Challenge Facing The US Even Tougher Where to start?: Avg. annual global CO2 emissions What countries?: Man-made CO2 emissions 90-99; Billion metric tons per year 03-10E; Billion metric tons per year 21 30 100% = 100% = 790 36 ROW 45 17 Natural Man made China 19 3 sources sources of 20 97 EU of CO2 CO2 15 27 US 21 03 10 What sectors?: US CO2 emissions What impact?: Real GDP impacts of regulation 03; Million metric tons of CO2 20E; Basis points of GDP growth Kyoto Jeffords Carper NCEP 5,878 1,793 -3 -10 -10 1,801 2,284 -76 Power Transportation Industrial, Total generation commercial, 9 residential
  • 11. TXU Examined All Parts Of The Electric Value Chain To Help Meet The Texas Energy Challenge Estimated 06-10 impact Segment Potential GW equivalent TXU initiatives Improved efficiency 0.1-0.4 Time of use offering Retail Increased conservation Green products 1 Market tracker pricing Improved reliability 0.0-0.1 Smart grid upgrades Transmission Infrastrux partnership 2 Broadband over power lines (BPL) Current Improved efficiency 0.2 TXU Operating System generation Improved reliability Reliability Optimization Initiative 3 assets (ROI) Improved environmental performance New build Increased renewables 9.3 Largest Texas wind provider generation Increased baseload supply 9.1 GW of new generation 4 assets State of the art environmental Largest voluntary commitment – controls 20% emissions reduction The size of the Texas energy challenge ultimately The size of the Texas energy challenge ultimately requires an efficient generation solution requires an efficient generation solution 10
  • 12. TXU Will Invest In The Optimal Technologies Across The Right Time Horizons To Meet Its Customers’ Needs Competitive technology Horizon 1 Horizon 2 Technology 0-5 years 5-15 years Constructible Wind Cost effective with subsidies Constructible Gas Reliable Constructible SCPC Reliable Cost effective Constructible IGCC Reliable Cost effective Constructible Reliable Nuclear Cost effective 11
  • 13. While The Characteristics Of Wind Generation Make It Difficult To Meet The Baseload Demand Of Texas… Wind availability versus hourly electricity demand in ERCOT 06; Percent 100 80 Hourly At peak demand demand 60 periods wind averages less than 40 20% capacity Wind capacity 20 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 Hours Not only does wind peak in the off peak hours, it peaks during the shoulder months Not only does wind peak in the off peak hours, it peaks during the shoulder months Source: AWEA Second Quarter Market Report, July 12
  • 14. … Wind Must Be Part Of The Solution TXU plans to double its wind portfolio …furthering Texas as the nation’s leader by 2010… in wind generation capacity TXU wind generation purchases Total wind generation capacity 05-10E; MW 06; MW 146% 146% 2,370 1,425 2,325 1,260 1,100 930 580 825 800 06E 07E 08E 09E 10E TX CA IA MN TXU is the largest purchaser of wind generation in Texas TXU is the largest purchaser of wind generation in Texas Source: AWEA Second Quarter Market Report, July 13
  • 15. There Must Be Regulatory, Capital, And Spent Fuel Breakthroughs To Make Nuclear Generation Competitive in Horizon 2 High construction costs… …combined with long …result in a high total cost lead times… relative to coal Construction costs Installation time Breakeven power price 06E; $/kW 06E; Months 06E; $/MWh 127% 167% 50% 127% 167% 50% 74 2,500 68-71 120 20 Carbon1 48-51 1,100 45 SCPC coal Nuclear SCPC coal Nuclear SCPC coal Nuclear The lack of aalong-term spent fuel solution also makes The lack of long-term spent fuel solution also makes nuclear aalonger-term generation solution nuclear longer-term generation solution 1 Based on potential carbon scenario with current European ETS pricing 14
  • 16. IGCC Was Considered As Part Of The Technology Review But Was Ultimately Seen Only As A Potential Solution In Horizon 2 1. IGCC technology is unproven on coals available in Texas – lignite 1. IGCC technology is unproven on coals available in Texas – lignite and PRB coals have a moisture content that is too high for IGCC and PRB coals have a moisture content that is too high for IGCC today today 2. The total power price is not competitive relative to other 2. The total power price is not competitive relative to other technologies – higher construction costs and lower capacity technologies – higher construction costs and lower capacity factors translate to breakeven power prices of $71-74/MWh factors translate to breakeven power prices of $71-74/MWh 3. Estimated construction times would not meet ERCOT market 3. Estimated construction times would not meet ERCOT market needs – the 72 month construction timeframe does not allow new needs – the 72 month construction timeframe does not allow new capacity to enter the market until 2012 capacity to enter the market until 2012 4. It is unclear if IGCC provides a better carbon alternative – 4. It is unclear if IGCC provides a better carbon alternative – although capture is potentially more efficient with IGCC than although capture is potentially more efficient with IGCC than SCPC, total costs are significantly higher SCPC, total costs are significantly higher 15
  • 17. The Combination Of Gas Fundamentals And Improvements In Supercritical Coal Make It The Winning Economic Technology Today… Coal is a relatively low cost fuel source… …in abundant supply in the US Fuel cost US reserves 06; $/MMBtu 04; Years of remaining reserves 9.22 84% 84% 1,900% 1,900% 200 1.50 10 Gas Coal Gas Coal Coal technology has become more cost …and emissions have been reduced effective… dramatically Improvements in construction cost NOx emissions from US power plants 95-05; Percent reduction 05; Lbs/MMBtu 85% 45 85% 104% 104% 0.33 22 0.03-0.13 0.05 US avg. TXU new Gas 16 coal coal Gas Coal
  • 18. …And TXU Has Proposed An Innovative Solution To Make Supercritical Coal A Winning Environmental Technology… SO2 NOx Hg Tons Lbs/ Tons Lbs/ Tons Lbs/ Estimated key emissions rates (000) MWh (000) MWh (000) MWh 2005 emissions (9 existing units) 273.1 11.6 42.1 1.79 0.0025 0.00011 Emissions after adding 11 new units 218.5 3.6 33.7 0.55 0.0020 0.00003 (20 units total) Percent change from 2005 emissions (20) (69) (20) (69) (20) (69) TXU has committed to the largest voluntary emissions reduction in US history TXU has committed to the largest voluntary emissions reduction in US history TXU will more than double its capacity while cutting key emissions by 20% TXU will more than double its capacity while cutting key emissions by 20% TXU is investing up to $2.5 billion on state of the art environmental controls TXU is investing up to $2.5 billion on state of the art environmental controls 17
  • 19. …Helping To Provide Texas With One Of The Cleanest Generation Fleets In The Country… Average NOx emission rates for 10 most populous states 04; Lbs/MMBtu 0.42 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.25 0.24 0.18 0.12 0.02 CA TX NY GA NJ IL FL US avg PA MI OH Improvements in coal will continue to increase efficiency of the Texas Improvements in coal will continue to increase efficiency of the Texas portfolio and reduce its emissions profile portfolio and reduce its emissions profile Source: TCEQ 18
  • 20. …And Making TXU The Cleanest Large-Scale Coal Fleet In US NOx emissions Hg emissions SO2 emissions Lbs/MMBtu Millionths of lbs/MMBtu Lbs/MMBtu 1 63% 82% TXU1 0.37 0.06 C 2.39 TXU 30% TXU1 3.00 A 0.47 B 0.10 B 0.49 G 0.20 F 3.08 3.12 0.66 0.24 P C F I 3.33 D 0.73 K 0.29 E 0.76 N 0.30 Q 3.38 A 3.46 0.88 0.30 F H D 3.79 G 0.95 E 0.32 3.89 H 0.98 J 0.33 K J 3.98 I 0.98 US avg 0.33 US avg 4.25 US avg 1.00 L 0.34 G 4.43 1.05 0.34 J R E 4.55 K 1.05 C 0.35 4.91 H L 1.23 P 0.35 O 5.08 1.26 0.35 M D L 5.11 N 1.27 Q 0.36 N 5.12 O 1.29 O 0.39 R 5.41 1.34 0.40 P I 5.98 M Q 1.61 A 0.41 6.31 1.67 0.42 B R M The combination of investment in the newest emissions control technology and The combination of investment in the newest emissions control technology and an innovative voluntary retrofit program will make TXU’s coal fleet the an innovative voluntary retrofit program will make TXU’s coal fleet the cleanest large-scale fleet in the nation cleanest large-scale fleet in the nation 1 TXU after new power generation development program and retrofits 19 Source: 2004 EPA
  • 21. Supercritical Coal Will Be A Competitive Technology Even In A Carbon Constrained World Evidenced By Decisions Being Made Today In Europe Levelized breakeven power cost European announced new build capacity $/MWh 11+; Percent (100%=54 GW) Other 86 - 124 Coal 84 - 99 5 Wind 74 68-101 With CO2 15 - 50 10 - 25 capture 40 20-50 33 74 71-74 No CO2 48-51 capture 5 4 13 Nuclear IGCC Advanced TXU CCGT IGCC nuclear reference Natural plant gas It is likely that over time the retrofit solutions will become even more efficient It is likely that over time the retrofit solutions will become even more efficient Even in markets facing carbon constraints, pulverized coal is the technology of Even in markets facing carbon constraints, pulverized coal is the technology of choice choice 20
  • 22. The Challenge Over The Next Horizon Is To Make Other Technologies Competitive With SCPC Gas price required to put CCGT Construction cost required to Construction cost required to in parity with SCPC put nuclear in parity with SCPC put IGCC in parity with SCPC 06E; $/MMBtu 06E; $/kW 06E; $/kW 5.40 950 880 2,250 3.80 1,400 No carbon $20 carbon No carbon $20 carbon No carbon $20 carbon tax1 tax1 tax tax tax1 tax Improvement 49% 28% 44% 10% 51% 47% relative to base case Other technologies need to be improved to match the performance of SCPC Other technologies need to be improved to match the performance of SCPC Continued productivity improvements in SCPC will make the gap wider Continued productivity improvements in SCPC will make the gap wider 1 21 Based on potential carbon scenario with current European ETS pricing.
  • 23. TXU Will Invest In The Optimal Technologies Across The Right Time Horizons To Meet Its Customers’ Needs Horizon 1 Horizon 2 Technology 0-5 years 5-15 years Constructible Wind Cost effective with subsidies Gas Constructible Reliable SCPC Constructible Reliable Cost effective Constructible IGCC Reliable Capacity additions Cost effective represent 12% of 06-20 US demand growth Constructible Reliable Nuclear Cost effective Technology GW Technology GW Wind 1.5 Wind 3.0 TXU aspiration: SCPC 20.0 SCPC 30.0 balanced portfolio of IGCC 0.0 IGCC 6.0 state of the art Nuclear 2.5 Nuclear 8.0 generation Total 24.0 Total 47.0 22
  • 24. Today’s Agenda Core advantaged businesses TXU Today Business objectives Value drivers and uncertainties Technology ERCOT market macroeconomic drivers Review Technology evaluation IGCC/SCPC comparison Advantaged construction and operating model Development Superior generation profile Investment Access to hedging markets Thesis Ability to access capital markets TXU: Meeting power challenges today and in Conclusion the future 23
  • 25. The Core Advantages Of TXU Power Development Company Translate Into A Unique Investment Thesis An advantaged …creates a superior …allowing access to …and the ability to construction and generation profile… the forward hedging better access the operating model… markets… capital markets • Exclusive • A 30% improvement • 2010 on line dates • Stability of cash arrangements with in construction allow access to the flows provides better costs1 industry leading liquid NYMEX market access to debt construction firms markets • A 30% improvement • All in cost advantage • A scaled build that in construction time makes TXU natural • Timing and takes advantage of provider of long term resiliency of cash lean operating PPA’s flows provides better • A $15/MWh total cost principles access to equity advantage markets • Top decile operator in reliability and costs The investment thesis is based on bringing together best in class The investment thesis is based on bringing together best in class construction with best in class operations construction with best in class operations 1 Based on average announced new build cost estimate of $1,600/kW 24
  • 26. The Scale Of An 8 Unit Reference Plant Build-Out… The TXU program allowed suppliers to …translating to step change remove waste from their process… improvements in delivery time Overall equipment effectiveness Number of units Percent 34% 31% 31% 9 TXU reference 8 plant program 3 85 7 5 12 6 65 5 4 3 Eight 2 individual steam turbine 1 unit build-out 0 Typical Reduced Reduced Reduced Optimized 10 14 18 22 26 30 34 38 42 46 50 equipment die speed rework equipment effectiveness change- losses effectiveness Months overs By utilizing 100% of GE’s manufacturing space in Schenectady, TXU was able By utilizing 100% of GE’s manufacturing space in Schenectady, TXU was able to move the turbine equipment off of the construction critical path to move the turbine equipment off of the construction critical path 25
  • 27. ...Combined With The Application Of Lean Principles Throughout Every Part Of The Construction Process… . . . and has supported equipment and materials procurement TXU has completed most of the “lean” workouts . . . Reference Plant material and Lean improvement workout status equipment Potential Ideas Decisions % Complete % Complete identified generated taken 100% = $4.2B 0% 33% 66% 100% Foundations/site prep Boiler structural steel Purchased 25 Critical piping later Critical valves Feed and condensate system Proposals Condensate chem. controls 25 in review Plant structural steel 100% Cost/ Chimney total Design Coal handling In negotiation 10 Cooling towers Electrical controls/DCS Raceway and cable Transformers Acquired 40 Scope optimization Start up and commissioning Structural steel erection 8 Reference Schedule/ Boiler erection 85% Plants Turbine erection Process total Chem clean and airblows Hydro to turbine roll 26
  • 28. … Have Redefined The Construction Of A Coal Plant… Estimated development cost Estimated development time 06E; $/kW 06E; Months 31% 30% 1,600 63 1,100 44 Typical TXU reference Typical TXU reference developer plant developer plant TXU has reaped the benefits of a scale build TXU has reaped the benefits of a scale build program on the reference plant concept program on the reference plant concept 27
  • 29. … And Will Allow TXU To Provide Lower Cost Power Than Its Competitors Breakeven power price 06; $/MWh 24% 10 63-66 4 1 48-51 Capital cost Build schedule Operational TXU Typical advantage advantage advantage reference competitor plant build ($1,600 $1,100) (6 yrs 4 yrs) (CF 90% 94% FOM $24/kW- yr $20/kW-yr) IRR 6.3% 3.9% 1.3% 0.7% 12.2% The TXU model provides a $15/MWh all-in cost The TXU model provides a $15/MWh all-in cost advantage over the typical developer advantage over the typical developer 28
  • 30. The Shorter Construction Timeline Allows TXU To Access The Forward Gas Market To Economically Hedge Output Liquidity of NYMEX gas market 06-12; Average daily contract transactions All TXU Competitor 9,750 plants online plants online 7,550 3,000 1,025 975 350 0 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 DevCo position 1.9 2.5 6.3 18.3 19.2 53.7 n/a relative to total market (Percent) The drop off in liquidity makes it difficult for aaplant coming on line in 2012 or The drop off in liquidity makes it difficult for plant coming on line in 2012 or later to materially hedge its output through the NYMEX market later to materially hedge its output through the NYMEX market 29
  • 31. The Combination Of Superior Performance And Ability To Hedge Will Make TXU’s Investment Thesis Attractive To Both The Debt And Equity Distribution of value 06; Percent of trials Typical developer TXU reference plant P (NPV < 0) = 75% P (NPV < 0) = 5% 0 NPV 06; $ millions TXU’s new build strategy significantly decreases the risks associated with TXU’s new build strategy significantly decreases the risks associated with high capital cost, long lead-time coal generation investments high capital cost, long lead-time coal generation investments 30
  • 32. Today’s Agenda Core advantaged businesses TXU Today Business objectives Value drivers and uncertainties Technology ERCOT market macroeconomic drivers Review Technology evaluation IGCC/SCPC comparison Advantaged construction and operating model Development Superior generation profile Investment Access to hedging markets Thesis Ability to access capital markets TXU: Meeting power challenges today and in Conclusion the future 31
  • 33. TXU: Meeting America’s Electric Power Challenges Today And In The Future 1. Investing today in 99GW of new generation to help meet Texas’ energy challenges 1. Investing today in GW of new generation to help meet Texas’ energy challenges –– Providing energy security by improving 2010 reserve margins from 6.8% to 20.5% Providing energy security by improving 2010 reserve margins from 6.8% to 20.5% –– Reducing ERCOT wholesale prices by up to $1.7 billion annually Reducing ERCOT wholesale prices by up to $1.7 billion annually –– Doubling capacity while reducing key emissions by 20% Doubling capacity while reducing key emissions by 20% 2. Investing for tomorrow in the next horizon of clean, reliable and efficient generation 2. Investing for tomorrow in the next horizon of clean, reliable and efficient generation –– Working with manufacturers to drive performance in technologies like IGCC and Working with manufacturers to drive performance in technologies like IGCC and nuclear nuclear –– Implementing the next generation of environmental retrofits for SO2, ,NOX, ,and Hg Implementing the next generation of environmental retrofits for SO2 NOX and Hg –– Investigating the next generation of carbon separation technologies for Investigating the next generation of carbon separation technologies for supercritical coal supercritical coal 3. Executing the ERCOT development program by redefining high performance 3. Executing the ERCOT development program by redefining high performance generation construction and operations generation construction and operations –– Partnering exclusively with world class developers to reduce time and cost to Partnering exclusively with world class developers to reduce time and cost to construct by up to 30% construct by up to 30% –– Combining lower cost construction with world class operations to deliver Combining lower cost construction with world class operations to deliver customers aaproduct $15/MWh cheaper than competitors customers product $15/MWh cheaper than competitors –– Leveraging the operational advantages to access lower cost capital for funding Leveraging the operational advantages to access lower cost capital for funding 32