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Merrill Lynch Power & Gas
  Leaders Conference




        C. John Wilder
      Chairman and CEO
      September 26, 2006
Safe Harbor Statement
 This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks and
 uncertainties. Discussion of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ
 materially from management's current projections, forecasts, estimates and expectations is
 contained in the company's SEC filings. In addition to the risks and uncertainties set forth in the
 company's SEC filings, the forward-looking statements in this presentation could be affected by
 actions of rating agencies, delays in implementing any future price-to-beat fuel factor adjustments,
 the ability of the company to attract and retain profitable customers, changes in demand for
 electricity, the impact of weather, changes in wholesale electricity prices or energy commodity
 prices, the company’s ability to hedge against changes in commodity prices and market heat rates,
 the company’s ability to fund certain investments described herein, delays in approval of, or failure
 to obtain, air and other environmental permits, changes in competitive market rules, changes in
 environmental laws or regulations, changes in electric generation and emissions control
 technologies, changes in projected demand for electricity in Texas, the ability of the company to
 attract and retain skilled labor for planning and building new generating units, changes in the cost
 and availability of materials necessary for the planned new generation units, the ability of the
 company to manage the significant construction program to a timely conclusion with limited cost
 overruns, the ability of the company to implement the initiatives that are part of its performance
 improvement program and growth strategy, and the terms under which the company executes
 those initiatives, and the decisions made and actions taken as a result of the company’s financial
 and growth strategies.

 Updates on the progress of the company’s power generation development program are expected
 to be provided on a quarterly basis. Today’s presentation does not include updates on the
 progress of the program.



                                                                                                     1
Competition Across The Texas Electric Value Chain


                    Successful generation construction requires high
     Competition
      Competition
                    performance across the entire value chain
    in wholesale
     in wholesale
        markets     TXU has developed a scaled program needed to
        markets
                    execute in this complex environment
                    It is unlikely that other developers will build in the
                    near term

                    Deregulation has created intense competition
    Competition
    Competition
                    and retail switching
      in retail
       in retail
      markets       Expected margins continue to remain below
       markets
                    those seen in other competitive markets
                    TXU continues to focus on delivering value to its
                    customers and profitably growing share




                                                                             2
ERCOT Requires New Baseload Generation To Meet The Needs Of A
Rapidly Growing Economy And Aging Generation Fleet
Texas has a rapidly growing population…                                      …that will deplete the current reserve margins…
Total population growth                                                      ERCOT reserve margins
05-15E; Millions of people                                                   00-11E; Percent
 6.3                                                                                      36
        5.7
                5.2                                                                 30
                                                                                               27    25

                                                                                                          17   16
                                                                               16                                    15
                                                                                                                           11
                         2.4
                               2.0                                                                                               9
                                     2.0
                                                                                                                                      7
                                            1.4                                                                                            5
                                                       1.1     1.1    0.9


 CA     TX      FL       AZ    GA    NC     VA         NV     WA      MD       00         02         04        06E         08E       10E
…continuing to keep gas on the margin…                                       …and stressing an aging generation fleet
06; Percent of time gas on the margin                                        ERCOT generation fleet age
                                                                             06; Percent of generation capacity
                                                                                             100% = 78 GW
  92      90+
                                                                                                             >50yrs
                       80      79                                                              41-50yrs
                                                                                                            2%
                                      58                                                                  6%              <10yrs
                                                  47
                                                                                    31-40yrs
                                                             40                                     22%
                                                                                                                     35%
                                                                      27



                                                                                                    19%
 FRCC    ERCOT        WECC NEPOOL Entergy     SPP            PJM     VACAR
                                                                                         21-30yrs              16%
                                                                                                                      10-20yrs
                                                                                                                                           3
Successful Execution Of A New Generation Facility Requires High
Performance Across The Entire Value Chain
                                  Fuel sourcing
                                  Fuel sourcing
                               Tight rail fundamentals
                               require long-term scale
                               purchases to negotiate
                               economic rates

                                                                Operations
        Construction                                            Operations
        Construction                                        Value creation
     Scale is necessary to                                   Value creation
      Scale is necessary to        Value creation           requires consistent
     negotiate the tight                                     requires consistent
      negotiate the tight             through               top decile operations
     world-wide markets                                      top decile operations
      world-wide markets                                    across reliability and
                                     new build
     for raw materials and                                   across reliability and
      for raw materials and                                 cost
     labor                                                   cost
      labor

                               Long-term off-take
                               Long-term off-take
                              Hedging/long-term PPA’s
                               Hedging/long-term PPA’s
                              are necessary to stabilize
                               are necessary to stabilize
                              cash flows to raise
                               cash flows to raise
                              capital and lock in value
                               capital and lock in value

            Failure to execute along any one of these dimensions
             Failure to execute along any one of these dimensions
                   can lead to significant value destruction
                    can lead to significant value destruction                         4
Competition For New Generation Spans Not Only Across Regions, But
Across The World
       Net new coal generation capacity
       05-10E; Percent
                                  100%= 183 GW

                         Other
                                  20

                 U.S.       5
                                                     60 China

                             15
                  India



                  Over the next 5 years, more than 90% of total coal
                  Over the next 5 years, more than 90% of total coal
               generation development will be built outside of the U.S.
                generation development will be built outside of the U.S.
                                                                           5
Source: EIA
It Is Very Difficult For Sub-Scale Builders To Drive Down Cost And
Shorten Schedule…

   SCPC construction cost estimates/targets
   05-06; $/KW


     1,850    1,733
                        1,635   1,600           1,576   1,518
                                        1,576                     1,450
                                                                            ~1,100




   Recent       A         B       C       D       E      F         G          TXU
  anecdotes                                                                reference
                                                                          plant target
Time from      39        45      53      54      59      47         -        30-32
permit to
online

                      Recent evidence suggests cost escalations
                      Recent evidence suggests cost escalations
                          of up to 67% from initial estimates
                           of up to 67% from initial estimates
                                                                                     6
… And To Negotiate Economic Rail Rates, Especially With Captive
Rail
 Powder River Basin (PRB) coal consumption Implications of captive rail
 05; Million tons                          01; $/ton



                                                                                                                           59
                 48
                                                                                                                 48
                                                                                        44
                          34
                                                                          Captive
                                  27       26
                                                                                                                                25
                                                   21                                                                 20
                                                                                             18       18

                                                                          Non-                             8
                                                                          captive


               TXU1              AEP              Xcel                                Farming                  Chemicals
                      Ameren           Southern                                                       Coal                 Lumber


                            TXU will become the largest shipper of PRB coal
                             TXU will become the largest shipper of PRB coal
                               and can have dual rail access at all units
                                and can have dual rail access at all units
 1TXU includes current consumption, expected fuel switching and planned ERCOT PRB reference plants.
                                                                                                                                     7
Source: MSHA and commercial information, CURE
High Performance Operations Are Needed To Drive Down The Total
    Cost Of Production

      Lignite operations performance1
      03-08E; Mixed measures (n=140)

                                       4th Quartile   3rd Quartile            1st Quartile
                                                                     Median                          Top
                                                                                 03 05 08E
                                                                                 84.6 89.8 92
                                                                                 #14 #4
      Capacity factor
      (%)                                    15.65       58.6         68.7                           96.3
                                                                                76.2



                                                                              3.53     3.35   2.60
                                                                              #37      #34
      Non-fuel O&M
      ($/MWh)                                44.56       6.22         4.47     3.52                  1.92



                  Every 1% improvement in capacity factor is worth $27/KW of value
                  Every 1% improvement in capacity factor is worth $27/KW of value
                  Every $1/MWh reduction in non-fuel O&M is worth $68/KW of value
                  Every $1/MWh reduction in non-fuel O&M is worth $68/KW of value
    Normalized for scrubbing and fuel type
1
                                                                                                        8
Taken Together, TXU Will Be Able To Provide Lower Cost Power Than
Its Competitors

  Breakeven power price
  06E; Index (TXU=1.00)


                                                                             1.46
                                                               0.11
                                                0.09
                                  0.06
                    0.20
      1.00




  TXU reference Capital cost   Build schedule    Fuel        Operational     Typical
      plant     disadvantage    disadvantage disadvantage   disadvantage   competitor
                                                                              plant



                The TXU model provides a ~$19/MWh all-in cost
                The TXU model provides a ~$19/MWh all-in cost
                     advantage over the typical developer
                     advantage over the typical developer

                                                                                        9
The Shorter Construction Timeline Allows TXU To Access The
Forward Gas Market To Economically Hedge Output

              Liquidity of NYMEX gas market
              06-12; Average daily contract transactions

                                                All TXU                Competitor
                    9,750
                                                plants online          plants online
                            7,550



                                      3,000
                                                1,025      975
                                                                  350          0

                     06      07        08        09         10    11          12
DevCo position       1.7     2.3       5.5       16.1      16.9   47.1        n/a
relative to total
market (Percent)


  The drop off in liquidity makes it difficult for a plant coming online in 2012 or
   The drop off in liquidity makes it difficult for a plant coming online in 2012 or
         later to materially hedge its output through the NYMEX market
          later to materially hedge its output through the NYMEX market
                                                                                       10
Based Upon A Shorter Construction Schedule And Lower Costs Of
Production, TXU Is The Natural Provider For Long-Term PPAs In Texas
   Incremental Texas municipal and cooperative load
   05-15E; Percent
                                    100% = 3.6 GW

   Demand not targeted
   (n=15 counterparties)
                                                            Active negotiations
                                27%                   31%




                                        42%
                                 Targeted demand
                TXU expects to sell forward approximately 75%
                 TXU expects to sell forward approximately 75%
               of the incremental municipal and cooperative load
               of the incremental municipal and cooperative load
                                                                            11
The Combination Of Superior Performance And Ability To Hedge Will
Make TXU’s Investment Thesis Attractive To Both Debt And Equity
Investors

   Distribution of value
   06; Percent of trials

   Typical developer                               TXU reference plant




 P (NPV < 0) = 75%                              P (NPV < 0) = 5%




                               0

                              NPV
                              06; $ millions


   TXU’s development strategy significantly decreases the risks associated
    TXU’s development strategy significantly decreases the risks associated
       with high capital cost, long lead-time coal generation investments
       with high capital cost, long lead-time coal generation investments

                                                                              12
Competition Across The Texas Electric Value Chain


                    Successful generation construction requires high
     Competition
      Competition
                    performance across the entire value chain
    in wholesale
     in wholesale
        markets     TXU has developed a scaled program needed to
        markets
                    execute in this complex environment
                    It is unlikely that other developers will build in the
                    near term

                    Deregulation has created intense competition
    Competition
    Competition
                    and retail switching
      in retail
       in retail
      markets       Expected margins continue to remain below
       markets
                    those seen in other competitive markets
                    TXU continues to focus on delivering value to its
                    customers and profitably growing share




                                                                             13
The Texas Electric Retail Market Has Seen Significant Switching,
Making Texas The Only Functioning Competitive Retail Market
Net incumbent switch rates
                                                                        4.6X local phone
Aug 06; Percent of load1
                                                                        1.7X long distance
                                    82                               “I know of no
            73                                                        “I know of no
                                                                     society that has
                                                                      society that has
                                   32                                been marked by a
                                                                      been marked by a
                                                            19
                                                                     large measure of
                                                7                     large measure of
                                                                     political freedom,
                                                                      political freedom,
     Large       Small-Med Residential TX Local            Long
                                                                     and that has not
   Business                                                           and that has not
                 Business                 phone after 4 distance
                                                                     also used
                                             years     after 4 years also used
         ERCOT retail switching                                      something
                                                                      something
Net residential incumbent switch rates                               comparable to a
                                                                      comparable to a
                                 1
Oct 05-Aug 06; Percent of load                                       free market to
                                                                      free market to
                                                                     organize the bulk
                    10X the nine region average                       organize the bulk
  32
                                                                     of economic
                                                                      of economic
                                                                     activity.”
                                                                      activity.”
                                                                     Milton Friedman
          10                                                          Milton Friedman
                  8
                                          3           3           2            2         0.3         0.3         0.0
     TX          NY         MA           CT          PA          DC          MD          OH          CA          NJ
 1Texas data as of 08/31/06 per ERCOT - business switching reflects load whereas residential reflects customer counts; NJ as of 7/06 from NJ Board of Public Utilities;
   PA as of 10/05 from PA PUC; data for other states from July/August 06 KEMA Retail Energy Foresight Report and ranges from 3/31/06-7/21/06. Ohio excludes load
   attributable to municipal aggregation per OPUC August 2005 report.
                                                                                                                                                                     14
 Source: KEMA, FCC, CERA, NJ Board of Public Utilities, Ohio PUC, ERCOT, Texas PUC 2003 Scope of Competition Data Responses
Competition Continues To Maintain Forward Margins At Levels Below
Those Seen At Market Open
    North Texas incumbent retail net margins1
    02-07E; Index (1/1/02=1.0)


                                   1.0                                                                                               0.9




                                                                                                    -0.1



                                                                    -1.3

                           Retail market                   Before 10/05                       Post 10/05                            07E
                           open (1/1/02)                      filing                            filing
                                                                                                                                  $7.992
NYMEX Gas                         $3.11                          $11.53                          $11.53
Fuel factor                       $3.11                           $7.87                          $11.53                          $11.53
gas


1 Based on a residential customer with 1,500kWh average usage per month and PUC standard load profile; energy cost based on NYMEX 12-month strip
                                                                                                                                                   15
2   NYMEX closing prices as of 9/15/06
North Texas Has The Most Competitive Rate Structure…
 Annualized Price to Beat1                                                                                                         Best available price
 06; Cents/kWh                                                                                                                     from incumbent
                                                                                                                           19.0

                                                                                                         17.5


                                                                                                                           16.33
                                                                                    16.2                 16.03
                                                                                     15.4
                                                                14.7
                                            14.6
                                                                14.0
                                            13.2
                                          TXU                 First               Reliant                CPL               WTU
                                                             Choice2
                                         Energy
 Incumbent
 customers4                                1,823                  129               1,222                 429               89
 (Thousands)

   TXU Energy leads the industry by providing both the lowest PTB and the
   TXU Energy leads the industry by providing both the lowest PTB and the
lowest best available price among incumbents in their historical service areas
 lowest best available price among incumbents in their historical service areas
1 Annualized residential price at 1,500 kWh average monthly usage pattern based upon PTB in effect as of 9/21/06.
2 First Choice Power has filed for a PTB fuel factor adjustment that will result in a lower PTB if approved by the PUCT.
3 Existing residential customers as of 6/30/06 began paying this price on 7/1/06.
4 As of 12/31/05 per PUCT.
                                                                                                                                                  16
Source: PUCT, TXU Energy
… And TXU Energy Offers 10 Of The 11 Lowest Single Family Prices
Among Incumbents In Their Historical Areas

 Residential single family offers from incumbent providers1
 06; Cents/kWh
                                                                                                                                                                WTU
                                                                                                                                                                PTB3
 19
             Average Undiscounted PTB 16.4 cents/kWh                                                                                                     CPL
 18
                                                                                                                                                         PTB3
                                                                                                                                       RRI
 17
                                                                                                                                       PTB
 16
                                                                              FC
                                                          TXU                PTB2
 15                                                       PTB
 14

 13

 12




                              TXU continues to focus on delivering its customers
                               TXU continues to focus on delivering its customers
                                      the most value at the lowest price
                                       the most value at the lowest price
 1   For residential customers with an average usage of 1,500 kWh per month (average for single family), excluding any applicable one-time incentives. Time periods for
     prices and offers shown vary. Shows all known offers currently available for customer enrollment by incumbent providers in their historical service areas including
     renewable products as of 9/22/06. TXU Energy low income discount funded by TXU Energy.
 2   First Choice Power has filed for a PTB fuel factor adjustment that will result in a lower PTB if approved by the PUCT.
 3   Denotes full, undiscounted Price to Beat. CPL and WTU provide existing Residential customers as of 6/30/06 a discounted PTB (Direct Electricity PlanTM) which is
     priced at 16.0 and 16.3 cents/kWh respectively in the two service areas. Both price points are included on the chart.
                                                                                                                                                                    17
TXU Continues To Deliver Its Customers Superior Service And Value
Relative customer satisfaction with ERCOT retail providers in incumbent territory
06; Ratio of very satisfied responses/very unsatisfied responses
  TXU                          Incumbent A                   Incumbent B
                  8.2


                                                                             4.7
                                                3.7
                                                                  2.8
        3.0                          3.0


     Apr 06      Jul 06            Apr 06     Jul 06          Apr 06       Jul 06
Relative customer value from ERCOT retail providers in incumbent territory
06; Ratio of excellent and very good responses/poor responses
  TXU                          Incumbent A                   Incumbent B
                  5.5
                                                                             4.0
        3.1
                                                3.3
                                    2.3                           2.1



     Apr 06      Jul 06           Apr 06      Jul 06            Apr 06      Jul 06

          TXU continues to improve the value it delivers to its customers
           TXU continues to improve the value it delivers to its customers
                                                                                     18
Competition Across The Texas Electric Value Chain


                    Successful generation construction requires high
     Competition
      Competition
                    performance across the entire value chain
    in wholesale
     in wholesale
        markets     TXU has developed a scaled program needed to
        markets
                    execute in this complex environment
                    It is unlikely that other developers will build in the
                    near term

                    Deregulation has created intense competition
    Competition
    Competition
                    and retail switching
      in retail
       in retail
      markets       Expected margins continue to remain below
       markets
                    those seen in other competitive markets
                    TXU continues to focus on delivering value to its
                    customers and profitably growing share




                                                                             19

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Merrill Lynch Power & Gas Leaders Conference TXU Presentation

  • 1. Merrill Lynch Power & Gas Leaders Conference C. John Wilder Chairman and CEO September 26, 2006
  • 2. Safe Harbor Statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Discussion of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from management's current projections, forecasts, estimates and expectations is contained in the company's SEC filings. In addition to the risks and uncertainties set forth in the company's SEC filings, the forward-looking statements in this presentation could be affected by actions of rating agencies, delays in implementing any future price-to-beat fuel factor adjustments, the ability of the company to attract and retain profitable customers, changes in demand for electricity, the impact of weather, changes in wholesale electricity prices or energy commodity prices, the company’s ability to hedge against changes in commodity prices and market heat rates, the company’s ability to fund certain investments described herein, delays in approval of, or failure to obtain, air and other environmental permits, changes in competitive market rules, changes in environmental laws or regulations, changes in electric generation and emissions control technologies, changes in projected demand for electricity in Texas, the ability of the company to attract and retain skilled labor for planning and building new generating units, changes in the cost and availability of materials necessary for the planned new generation units, the ability of the company to manage the significant construction program to a timely conclusion with limited cost overruns, the ability of the company to implement the initiatives that are part of its performance improvement program and growth strategy, and the terms under which the company executes those initiatives, and the decisions made and actions taken as a result of the company’s financial and growth strategies. Updates on the progress of the company’s power generation development program are expected to be provided on a quarterly basis. Today’s presentation does not include updates on the progress of the program. 1
  • 3. Competition Across The Texas Electric Value Chain Successful generation construction requires high Competition Competition performance across the entire value chain in wholesale in wholesale markets TXU has developed a scaled program needed to markets execute in this complex environment It is unlikely that other developers will build in the near term Deregulation has created intense competition Competition Competition and retail switching in retail in retail markets Expected margins continue to remain below markets those seen in other competitive markets TXU continues to focus on delivering value to its customers and profitably growing share 2
  • 4. ERCOT Requires New Baseload Generation To Meet The Needs Of A Rapidly Growing Economy And Aging Generation Fleet Texas has a rapidly growing population… …that will deplete the current reserve margins… Total population growth ERCOT reserve margins 05-15E; Millions of people 00-11E; Percent 6.3 36 5.7 5.2 30 27 25 17 16 16 15 11 2.4 2.0 9 2.0 7 1.4 5 1.1 1.1 0.9 CA TX FL AZ GA NC VA NV WA MD 00 02 04 06E 08E 10E …continuing to keep gas on the margin… …and stressing an aging generation fleet 06; Percent of time gas on the margin ERCOT generation fleet age 06; Percent of generation capacity 100% = 78 GW 92 90+ >50yrs 80 79 41-50yrs 2% 58 6% <10yrs 47 31-40yrs 40 22% 35% 27 19% FRCC ERCOT WECC NEPOOL Entergy SPP PJM VACAR 21-30yrs 16% 10-20yrs 3
  • 5. Successful Execution Of A New Generation Facility Requires High Performance Across The Entire Value Chain Fuel sourcing Fuel sourcing Tight rail fundamentals require long-term scale purchases to negotiate economic rates Operations Construction Operations Construction Value creation Scale is necessary to Value creation Scale is necessary to Value creation requires consistent negotiate the tight requires consistent negotiate the tight through top decile operations world-wide markets top decile operations world-wide markets across reliability and new build for raw materials and across reliability and for raw materials and cost labor cost labor Long-term off-take Long-term off-take Hedging/long-term PPA’s Hedging/long-term PPA’s are necessary to stabilize are necessary to stabilize cash flows to raise cash flows to raise capital and lock in value capital and lock in value Failure to execute along any one of these dimensions Failure to execute along any one of these dimensions can lead to significant value destruction can lead to significant value destruction 4
  • 6. Competition For New Generation Spans Not Only Across Regions, But Across The World Net new coal generation capacity 05-10E; Percent 100%= 183 GW Other 20 U.S. 5 60 China 15 India Over the next 5 years, more than 90% of total coal Over the next 5 years, more than 90% of total coal generation development will be built outside of the U.S. generation development will be built outside of the U.S. 5 Source: EIA
  • 7. It Is Very Difficult For Sub-Scale Builders To Drive Down Cost And Shorten Schedule… SCPC construction cost estimates/targets 05-06; $/KW 1,850 1,733 1,635 1,600 1,576 1,518 1,576 1,450 ~1,100 Recent A B C D E F G TXU anecdotes reference plant target Time from 39 45 53 54 59 47 - 30-32 permit to online Recent evidence suggests cost escalations Recent evidence suggests cost escalations of up to 67% from initial estimates of up to 67% from initial estimates 6
  • 8. … And To Negotiate Economic Rail Rates, Especially With Captive Rail Powder River Basin (PRB) coal consumption Implications of captive rail 05; Million tons 01; $/ton 59 48 48 44 34 Captive 27 26 25 21 20 18 18 Non- 8 captive TXU1 AEP Xcel Farming Chemicals Ameren Southern Coal Lumber TXU will become the largest shipper of PRB coal TXU will become the largest shipper of PRB coal and can have dual rail access at all units and can have dual rail access at all units 1TXU includes current consumption, expected fuel switching and planned ERCOT PRB reference plants. 7 Source: MSHA and commercial information, CURE
  • 9. High Performance Operations Are Needed To Drive Down The Total Cost Of Production Lignite operations performance1 03-08E; Mixed measures (n=140) 4th Quartile 3rd Quartile 1st Quartile Median Top 03 05 08E 84.6 89.8 92 #14 #4 Capacity factor (%) 15.65 58.6 68.7 96.3 76.2 3.53 3.35 2.60 #37 #34 Non-fuel O&M ($/MWh) 44.56 6.22 4.47 3.52 1.92 Every 1% improvement in capacity factor is worth $27/KW of value Every 1% improvement in capacity factor is worth $27/KW of value Every $1/MWh reduction in non-fuel O&M is worth $68/KW of value Every $1/MWh reduction in non-fuel O&M is worth $68/KW of value Normalized for scrubbing and fuel type 1 8
  • 10. Taken Together, TXU Will Be Able To Provide Lower Cost Power Than Its Competitors Breakeven power price 06E; Index (TXU=1.00) 1.46 0.11 0.09 0.06 0.20 1.00 TXU reference Capital cost Build schedule Fuel Operational Typical plant disadvantage disadvantage disadvantage disadvantage competitor plant The TXU model provides a ~$19/MWh all-in cost The TXU model provides a ~$19/MWh all-in cost advantage over the typical developer advantage over the typical developer 9
  • 11. The Shorter Construction Timeline Allows TXU To Access The Forward Gas Market To Economically Hedge Output Liquidity of NYMEX gas market 06-12; Average daily contract transactions All TXU Competitor 9,750 plants online plants online 7,550 3,000 1,025 975 350 0 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 DevCo position 1.7 2.3 5.5 16.1 16.9 47.1 n/a relative to total market (Percent) The drop off in liquidity makes it difficult for a plant coming online in 2012 or The drop off in liquidity makes it difficult for a plant coming online in 2012 or later to materially hedge its output through the NYMEX market later to materially hedge its output through the NYMEX market 10
  • 12. Based Upon A Shorter Construction Schedule And Lower Costs Of Production, TXU Is The Natural Provider For Long-Term PPAs In Texas Incremental Texas municipal and cooperative load 05-15E; Percent 100% = 3.6 GW Demand not targeted (n=15 counterparties) Active negotiations 27% 31% 42% Targeted demand TXU expects to sell forward approximately 75% TXU expects to sell forward approximately 75% of the incremental municipal and cooperative load of the incremental municipal and cooperative load 11
  • 13. The Combination Of Superior Performance And Ability To Hedge Will Make TXU’s Investment Thesis Attractive To Both Debt And Equity Investors Distribution of value 06; Percent of trials Typical developer TXU reference plant P (NPV < 0) = 75% P (NPV < 0) = 5% 0 NPV 06; $ millions TXU’s development strategy significantly decreases the risks associated TXU’s development strategy significantly decreases the risks associated with high capital cost, long lead-time coal generation investments with high capital cost, long lead-time coal generation investments 12
  • 14. Competition Across The Texas Electric Value Chain Successful generation construction requires high Competition Competition performance across the entire value chain in wholesale in wholesale markets TXU has developed a scaled program needed to markets execute in this complex environment It is unlikely that other developers will build in the near term Deregulation has created intense competition Competition Competition and retail switching in retail in retail markets Expected margins continue to remain below markets those seen in other competitive markets TXU continues to focus on delivering value to its customers and profitably growing share 13
  • 15. The Texas Electric Retail Market Has Seen Significant Switching, Making Texas The Only Functioning Competitive Retail Market Net incumbent switch rates 4.6X local phone Aug 06; Percent of load1 1.7X long distance 82 “I know of no 73 “I know of no society that has society that has 32 been marked by a been marked by a 19 large measure of 7 large measure of political freedom, political freedom, Large Small-Med Residential TX Local Long and that has not Business and that has not Business phone after 4 distance also used years after 4 years also used ERCOT retail switching something something Net residential incumbent switch rates comparable to a comparable to a 1 Oct 05-Aug 06; Percent of load free market to free market to organize the bulk 10X the nine region average organize the bulk 32 of economic of economic activity.” activity.” Milton Friedman 10 Milton Friedman 8 3 3 2 2 0.3 0.3 0.0 TX NY MA CT PA DC MD OH CA NJ 1Texas data as of 08/31/06 per ERCOT - business switching reflects load whereas residential reflects customer counts; NJ as of 7/06 from NJ Board of Public Utilities; PA as of 10/05 from PA PUC; data for other states from July/August 06 KEMA Retail Energy Foresight Report and ranges from 3/31/06-7/21/06. Ohio excludes load attributable to municipal aggregation per OPUC August 2005 report. 14 Source: KEMA, FCC, CERA, NJ Board of Public Utilities, Ohio PUC, ERCOT, Texas PUC 2003 Scope of Competition Data Responses
  • 16. Competition Continues To Maintain Forward Margins At Levels Below Those Seen At Market Open North Texas incumbent retail net margins1 02-07E; Index (1/1/02=1.0) 1.0 0.9 -0.1 -1.3 Retail market Before 10/05 Post 10/05 07E open (1/1/02) filing filing $7.992 NYMEX Gas $3.11 $11.53 $11.53 Fuel factor $3.11 $7.87 $11.53 $11.53 gas 1 Based on a residential customer with 1,500kWh average usage per month and PUC standard load profile; energy cost based on NYMEX 12-month strip 15 2 NYMEX closing prices as of 9/15/06
  • 17. North Texas Has The Most Competitive Rate Structure… Annualized Price to Beat1 Best available price 06; Cents/kWh from incumbent 19.0 17.5 16.33 16.2 16.03 15.4 14.7 14.6 14.0 13.2 TXU First Reliant CPL WTU Choice2 Energy Incumbent customers4 1,823 129 1,222 429 89 (Thousands) TXU Energy leads the industry by providing both the lowest PTB and the TXU Energy leads the industry by providing both the lowest PTB and the lowest best available price among incumbents in their historical service areas lowest best available price among incumbents in their historical service areas 1 Annualized residential price at 1,500 kWh average monthly usage pattern based upon PTB in effect as of 9/21/06. 2 First Choice Power has filed for a PTB fuel factor adjustment that will result in a lower PTB if approved by the PUCT. 3 Existing residential customers as of 6/30/06 began paying this price on 7/1/06. 4 As of 12/31/05 per PUCT. 16 Source: PUCT, TXU Energy
  • 18. … And TXU Energy Offers 10 Of The 11 Lowest Single Family Prices Among Incumbents In Their Historical Areas Residential single family offers from incumbent providers1 06; Cents/kWh WTU PTB3 19 Average Undiscounted PTB 16.4 cents/kWh CPL 18 PTB3 RRI 17 PTB 16 FC TXU PTB2 15 PTB 14 13 12 TXU continues to focus on delivering its customers TXU continues to focus on delivering its customers the most value at the lowest price the most value at the lowest price 1 For residential customers with an average usage of 1,500 kWh per month (average for single family), excluding any applicable one-time incentives. Time periods for prices and offers shown vary. Shows all known offers currently available for customer enrollment by incumbent providers in their historical service areas including renewable products as of 9/22/06. TXU Energy low income discount funded by TXU Energy. 2 First Choice Power has filed for a PTB fuel factor adjustment that will result in a lower PTB if approved by the PUCT. 3 Denotes full, undiscounted Price to Beat. CPL and WTU provide existing Residential customers as of 6/30/06 a discounted PTB (Direct Electricity PlanTM) which is priced at 16.0 and 16.3 cents/kWh respectively in the two service areas. Both price points are included on the chart. 17
  • 19. TXU Continues To Deliver Its Customers Superior Service And Value Relative customer satisfaction with ERCOT retail providers in incumbent territory 06; Ratio of very satisfied responses/very unsatisfied responses TXU Incumbent A Incumbent B 8.2 4.7 3.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 Apr 06 Jul 06 Apr 06 Jul 06 Apr 06 Jul 06 Relative customer value from ERCOT retail providers in incumbent territory 06; Ratio of excellent and very good responses/poor responses TXU Incumbent A Incumbent B 5.5 4.0 3.1 3.3 2.3 2.1 Apr 06 Jul 06 Apr 06 Jul 06 Apr 06 Jul 06 TXU continues to improve the value it delivers to its customers TXU continues to improve the value it delivers to its customers 18
  • 20. Competition Across The Texas Electric Value Chain Successful generation construction requires high Competition Competition performance across the entire value chain in wholesale in wholesale markets TXU has developed a scaled program needed to markets execute in this complex environment It is unlikely that other developers will build in the near term Deregulation has created intense competition Competition Competition and retail switching in retail in retail markets Expected margins continue to remain below markets those seen in other competitive markets TXU continues to focus on delivering value to its customers and profitably growing share 19