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Food Security to 2050:
    Action Issues


 Per Pinstrup-Andersen

  University of Adelaide
   February 13, 2012
Action Issue 1

Rhetoric
Declarations
Plans                     Action
Targets
What is “Food Security”?
Progress Towards Meeting the
                       WFS Goal Globally
           1100
                                                   1020
           1000
                  842                        923     925
           900                                             863
                                       848
Millions




           800
                                                                 Data
           700
                                                                 91-04
           600
                                                                 WFS
           500
                                                           421
           400




                    Source: FAO 2006
Progress Towards Meeting the
             MDG Globally

25%

20%             20%
                                18%                                          17%          18%          17%
15%                                             16%             16%

10%

5%

0%
      1990-92



                      1995-97



                                      2000-02



                                                      2005-07



                                                                      2008



                                                                                   2009



                                                                                                2010
Action Issue 2

Speed up eradication of food
insecurity and malnutrition.
The Triple Burden of
            Malnutrition

1. Energy and protein deficiencies: Hunger
2. Specific nutrient deficiencies: Hidden
   Hunger
3. Excessive net energy intake: Overweight
   & Obesity
Action Issue 3

  Incorporate nutrition goals
into food system policies and
          programs.
Action Issue 4

Use nutrition impact as
indicator of success in
  economic policy.
Action Issue 5

Manage food price volatility.
Maize Weekly Price Minus
      12-Month Moving Average

100
 80
 60
 40
 20
  0
-20
-40
-60
-80
Rice Weekly Price Minus
       12-Month Moving Average

350
300
250
200
150
100
 50
  0
 -50
-100
-150
Wheat Weekly Price Minus
          12-Month Moving Average

150


100


 50


  0


 -50


-100
   1998   1999   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010
Volatility in Weather Patterns


                         Irregular
Drought    Flooding      Rainfall    Strong Winds
                         Patterns



                   Production
                    Volatility
Action Issue 6

Adapt the food system to
   climate change.
Priority Action (1)
 Agricultural research
 Risk management
 Production systems
 Water management
Production Volatility

Supply Responses                  Speculation

Government Policy                 Government Policies

Market Information                Energy Prices
                                  Demand Changes


                   Price Volatility
Action Issue 7

Manage amplifying factors.
Priority Action (2)
 Infrastructure
 Institutional innovation
 Domestic and international markets
 Protect the effectiveness of price signals
 Promote effective price transmission
 Compensatory measures
 Alternative energy sources
Action Issue 8

Expand food production to
  meet future demand.
Priority Action (3)

 Specific policy interventions context specific
    Likely to include:
      Infrastructure investments
      Institutional innovation
      Input and output market development
      Pre- and post harvest focused research
      Facilitation of small-scale agri-business
Action Issue 9

Sustainable intensification.
Environmental Kuznets Curve
Hypothetical Relationships Between
Income and Deforestation/Soil Mining
Action Issue 10

  Full costing
Hypothetical Relationships Between
Income and Deforestation/Soil Mining

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Pinstrup-Andersen 10 Action Issues