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restaurantbriefing.com pg 1
INDUSTRY UPDATE
Jan/Feb 2014
In this edition
Technology on the Menu
Beverage Trends
Passive Consumers
restaurantbriefing.com Helping Restaurateurs Adapt to a Changing Marketplace
over35years
Hudson Riehle, Senior VP, Research & Knowledge Group, National Restaurant Association,
predicts that the OPERATING ENVIRONMENT FOR RESTAURANTS in 2014 will continue on the
same positive – but modest – growth path. “Overall, we’re certainly not looking at a rebound to prosperity, but
things are headed in the right direction. Last year was the fourth consecutive year of growth for the restaurant
industry, although modest. Moving into 2014, economic indicators such as real domestic product, real
disposable income, and employment growth remain positive.” Employment growth – which Hudson
says shows signs of being somewhat higher in 2014 – is especially key for the industry because even
a small uptick in employment translates into a greater ability for consumers to spend in restaurants.
Another important element in spending decisions is consumer confidence, which – while still “sub-
optimal,” Hudson cautions – is up compared to several years ago. “Operators will need to continue
to nudge consumers into decisions to patronize their restaurants.” And they will do so in a robust
competitive environment. “If you look at the number of units – points of access for customers – they
continue to grow, and the economic environment of the last few years has created a battle for market
share. One of the more important developments in 2014 and beyond is how operators view competition,
which, over the last couple of decades, has been defined as other operators in a specific trading
area. But it’s important to look at competition in terms of consumer spending in other categories – not
just other restaurants.” To be truly competitive, Hudson advises, operators must look at consumer
spending more holistically and take into consideration that over half is on housing and transportation.
“Only 13% of consumer spending is on food and it has gradually been edging downward; consumers
have been increasingly spending more in other areas.” To respond, Hudson counsels restaurateurs
to take a cue from the grocery store industry, which, he notes, has been much more proactive about
being relevant to consumers’ spending needs other than food – providing discounts on gas based
on grocery purchases, for example. “I think we’ll see more restaurant operators link spending in their
establishments to other areas which otherwise would provide competition for that spending.” For
example, Hudson says hypothetically he could see restaurants linking guest spending to discounts
on transportation, or on utilities, apparel, and entertainment. “This could provide nudges to patronize
restaurants on various occasions. Restaurateurs are only limited by their imaginations and by how they
can align with different businesses.”
MichaelWhiteman, President, Baum + Whiteman, sees agrowingappetiteforluxury in RESTAURANT
CONCEPTS and MENUS. In spite of a sluggish overall economy, but buoyed by Wall Street, Michael
notes, “A lot of people are throwing around wads of money.” As a result, he observes a shift in influence.
“In my opinion, a couple of years ago most of the movement in the restaurant world was ‘trickle up,’
in part from renegades – pushing combinations, clashing ethnicities, making disparate flavors work
together. These were the people running food trucks, opening hip joints, and their influence was
pushing into the upper reaches of fine dining.” Now, he concludes, “There’s enough money sloshing
around that luxury – in the form of things like costly tasting menus, chicken priced like steak, upscale
food halls, spare-no-expense tabletop, and technology-enabled custom environments – is thriving and
trickling down in lots of different ways.” For example, Michael cites a proliferation of upscale tasting-
only menus but says that we’ll see their influence in less elite settings with more tasting menu options
added to a la carte menus. Another example is the elite tier of restaurants creating opportunities for
the second tier. “The more the top restaurants charge these days, the more people want to be there.
But when they can’t get in, the second tier restaurants gain in popularity.” And he says that price de-
sensitivity by some also now means it’s possible for many to charge a lot of money for once humble
chicken. “You can pay $70 for chicken in a fancy restaurant or $70 for chicken in a warehouse,” albeit
an exclusive warehouse. And why has chicken gone haute? “Because chicken is something that can
be glorified. Plus a lot of restaurateurs have convinced people they have found ‘the way’ to prepare
chicken, but it’s a lot of mythology – the difference between a chicken with a small c and big C is
marginal.”
Trends to Watch 2014
INDUSTRY UPDATE
More trend resources and insights
for the year ahead and beyond
12 Hottest Food & Beverage Trends for
Restaurants and Hotel Dining for 2014
(baumwhiteman.com)
bit.ly/1bbgEic
AF&Co. Presents 2014 Trends: # Blurred Lines
(afandco.com)
bit.ly/IQgbvC
Technomic’s Take: 10 Trends for 2014
(technomic.com)
bit.ly/1hXkEeC
5 Restaurant Trends You Can’t Ignore
(restaurant-hospitality.com)
bit.ly/1ej8jRA
2020 Vision: The Future of Foodservice
(nrn.com)
bit.ly/1bbgGGW
2014 Food Trends: What You Should Expect
In The Year To Come
(FohBoh.com)
bit.ly/JzW0CQ
2014 Predictions: Branding & Social Culture
(foodabletv.com)
bit.ly/J0njF5
Food and Drink Predictions for 2014
(Details.com)
bit.ly/1gC6MWU
10 Food Trends to Watch
(HuffingtonPost.com)
huff.to/1c7FAgD
Consumers to Dine Out Less Often in 2014
(nrn.com)
bit.ly/18vqQre
7 Consumer Trends to Run With in 2014
(Trendwatching.com)
bit.ly/18vqW1P
>> continues on page 2
>> continues on page 2
restaurantbriefing.com pg 2
In a move to appeal to consumers who are
willing to spend, enter upscale “food halls,” as
a replacement for or in addition to food courts,
especially in shopping centers eager to attract
new consumers, keep existing ones, and
encourage them to linger. According to Michael,
the best will combine on-premise manufacturing,
dining, takeaway, and retail, and will feature
“artisan” food by local name-brand restaurants.
“Three, four, five upscale restaurants plus some
at the lower end becomes a real restaurant
destination. There are a lot of people who will
go to a food hall who wouldn’t go to a food
court, and it’s something you can’t experience
online. So if a landlord has to recycle the space
that was once Borders Books, he or she will
fill it full of food. It’s all part of a larger trend of
restaurants, with high sales per square foot and
repeat customers, becoming ‘anchors’ – not just in
shopping malls and department stores, but in hotels,
airports, and museums.” Michael sees another
trickle-down path – from restaurants in Saks,
Macy’s, or Nordstrom to the likes of cafes/bars/
juiceries/yogurt counters in bike shops.
Luxury is also extending into the neurosensory
arena. “Food is not enough at the high end.
Restaurants are enhancing the dining experience by
fiddling with our senses, redefining ‘eatertainment’.”
Michael uses terms like “psychotasting” and
“sensory integration,” referring to a growing
trend of restaurants playing to senses we
don’t normally use when eating. It could be
INDUSTRY UPDATE (continued)
meals in the dark or in silence; a multi-act,
multi-course banquet/opera; music and visuals
cued to courses; tactile tableware; diffusers
controlling temperature, humidity, and aromas.
“The places doing this experience game are
generally small, accommodating 10-15-20
diners willing to dump a lot of money. It’s the
equivalent of whitewater rafting with your own
guide, or climbing Mt. Everest with your own
Sherpa – part bragging rights and part the
experience itself.”
Speaking of money, Michael says the smart money
is placing bets on better-for-you dining. “It’s a
niche market that’s rolling into the mainstream,
from salad restaurants (many of which have
evolved from being hippie joints) to high-priced
vegetable tasting menus as part of upscale
menus – with fast feeders sure to follow if they
can figure out how to make healthy fit their
formats.” More than one factor propels this
momentum, he adds: “the gluten-rejecters,
Paleo people, diabetics, weight-challenged,
vegetarians, vegans, and two decades of
nudging by nutritionists, ‘food nazis,’ and
perhaps the First Lady.” He predicts we’ll see
more “plant-based ‘faux food’ with waiter service”
and more restaurants appealing to some consumers’
newfound protein obsessions. “Winners will be
those restaurants that can appeal to people
who don’t want to eat processed food and who
want evidence they are eating food that’s good
for them.”
>> Hudson Riehle continued from page 1
AROUND THE USA
Local topped the list again in the National Restaurant
Association’s “What’s Hot” chefs’ survey of food and
menu trends. Looking to 2014, locally-sourced meats
and seafood and locally-grown produce retained
their #1 and #2 rankings, respectively.
Otheritemsremaininginthespotlight are environmental
sustainability (#3) and healthful kids’ meals (#4.)
Moving up from last year are gluten-free cuisine
(from #8 to #5); hyperlocal sourcing (e.g., restaurant
gardens from #6 to #5); and wheat noodles/pasta
such as quinoa, rice, buckwheat (from #12 to #8).
It’s interesting to note that 10 food trends have
remained in the top 20 since 2009: locally-grown
produce, healthful kids’ meals, gluten-free cuisine,
sustainable seafood, health/nutrition, new cuts
of meat, ancient grains, ethnic-inspired breakfast
items, nontraditional fish, and fruit/vegetable sides
in kids’ meals. There are three new additions to the
top 20: nose to tail/root to stalk cooking (e.g., using
entire animal/plant) at #11; ancient grains (e.g.,
INDUSTRY INTELLIGENCE
kamut, spelt, amaranth) is #15; and grazing (e.g.,
small-plate sharing/snacking instead of traditional
meals) ranks #17. By contrast, moving out of the
top 20 are house-made/artisan ice cream (now
#45); black/forbidden rice (#31); and food trucks
(#41).
Also trending downward – considered “yesterday’s
news” by more than half of the chefs surveyed –
are foam/froth, bacon-flavored chocolate, fish
offal, gazpacho, fun-shaped children’s items,
mini-burgers/sliders, barnacles, flowers, dust,
and molecular gastronomy. Gelato, micro-greens,
tapas/meze/dim sum, and dessert flights are also
among the items that chefs report are cooling off.
The five newest – rated “hot trend” by 59% to 67% of those
surveyed – are grazing/small plate sharing, hybrid
desserts (e.g., cronut, townie, ice cream cupcake),
uncommon herbs (e.g., chervil, lovage, lemon
balm, papalo), natural sweeteners (e.g., agave,
honey, concentrated fruit juice, maple syrup), and
kale salads. Other preparations chefs cited as
being of the moment were pickling, fermenting,
smoking, sous vide, and liquid nitrogen chilling/
freezing. Fried chicken, Italian cuisine, frying, and
barbeque scored the most votes in the category of
perennial favorites.
Looking into the future, when asked which current
trend will be the hottest menu trend in 10 years,
38% answered environmental sustainability and
22% said local sourcing, indicating the staying
power that chefs believe these practices will have;
18% said health/nutrition; 10% children’s nutrition;
and only 8% gluten-free.
Note: The National Restaurant Association’s
“What’s Hot in 2014” is a survey of more than
1,300 professional chef members of the American
Culinary Federation (ACF). For more info, visit
restaurant.org/News-Research/Research/What-s-Hot.
Hot Menu Trends for 2014
Restaurants could also draw some inspiration
from the airline and hotel industries, Hudson
continues. “Another area we’ll see develop in
2014 and in coming years is ‘yield management’ –
making frequent adjustments in pricing in response
to market factors such as demand, competition, or
inventory. Technology now potentially gives
operators the ability to change menu prices
depending on the time of day, day of the week,
inventory levels, etc. For example, QSRs
used to have printed menu boards – now
digital screens allow them to change prices
quickly. Four out of five consumers say that if
a restaurant offered off-peak pricing, it would
incent them to use foodservice solutions more;
with the adoption of tablet menus in tableservice,
it’s not hard to imagine a scenario that would allow
operators to selectively price items. And many
already tweet special offers or menu items for a
specific day and time. Overall, it’s a new frontier
for the restaurant industry, but if you look at
airlines and hotels, for example, consumers
think nothing about sitting next to someone
on a plane or being in a hotel with those who
have paid a different price. It doesn’t mean that
every operator will go down this road, but for some
it will make sense to test and implement pricing
variations.” Overall Hudson says that while
technology isn’t a panacea, it’s a valuable tool
in operators’ tool belts. “Certainly the timing of
the evolution of technologies that enable these
kind of programs is fortuitous for the restaurant
industry in 2014 and beyond.”
>> Michael Whiteman continued from page 1
restaurantbriefing.com pg 3
Industry Update
According to recent National Restaurant
Association consumer research, well over half of
U.S. adults (63%) have used restaurant-related
technologies. When asked what they’d done in the
past month, those surveyed were most likely to
have looked for a restaurant location and directions
on a mobile device and also to have viewed
menus, ordered food, or made online reservations
on a computer. When it comes to the technologies
consumers would use if offered, the same two
top the list: looking up a restaurant location and
getting directions (underscoring the importance
of claiming listings in online directories); and
using a computer to view menus, order, or make
reservations (elements which should be part of a
restaurant’s online presence on its own website
and/or via third-party sites).
In almost all cases, the younger the consumer, the
stronger the attraction to the technologies included
in the study. For example, compared to the average
of all adults, Millennials (aged 18-34) would be
more likely to look up nutritional information on
a mobile device (70%), interact with a restaurant
on social media (56%), order takeout/delivery
on a mobile device (74%), and look up location/
directions on a mobile device (88%) if offered. But
don’t sell older customers short – almost a quarter
(23%) of those aged 65+ said they’d use a reward
or special deal on a mobile device.
NRAresearch also shows that while the consumer-
facing technologies in the study are presently
offered by a limited number of restaurants, 54%
of tableservice and 48% of quickservice operators
say they plan to invest to close the gap between
what they currently offer and what consumers say
they want. Some things to consider:
MOBILE TOOLS Abigail Lorden, Editor-in-Chief,
Hospitality Technology, says, “We’re seeing much
more interest in mobile tools, with the ultimate goal of
engaging customers, improving their experiences,
and streamlining operations. Mobile is becoming
the most important way to communicate with
customers.” Rocky Lucia, IT Director, BR Guest,
Inc., hq New York, NY, agrees. “With everyone using
smartphones and tablets, a mobile-friendly site is
a necessity today.” Chris Shirer, CEO, Madison &
Fifth, a digital agency specializing in restaurants,
hospitality, and retail, reports that 40% of Cameron
Mitchell Restaurants’ website viewership is now on
mobile devices. She says, “It’s also important that
emails be read easily on mobile devices, so we use
MailChimp.com which resizes emails automatically
to the recipients’screens.” Plus, she advises, it’s key
to support flash animation and HTML5 for video, so
that if a device doesn’t have flash, the video will be
automatically bumped to HTML5. “The challenge
continues to be third-party providers, such as those
who sell gift cards, that aren’t mobile friendly yet.”
TABLET TECHNOLOGIES It was recently reported
that Applebee’s intends to install 100,000
tablet computers in more than 1,800 locations
nationwide by the end of 2014. Julia Stewart,
CEO, DineEquity (Applebee’s’ parent company),
said customers had been telling them for some
time that they don’t like waiting for a check and
that tablets will present the company with a
unique opportunity and competitive advantage.
This technology will allow customers to pay at the
table, order, and play games, giving Applebee’s
another way to engage and communicate with
their guests. Similar devices are being used by
other casual dining restaurant chains, including
Chili’s, Red Robin, McDonald’s, and Buffalo
Wild Wings. While upscale and white tablecloth
operators are continuing to evaluate the use of
tablets, some are having success using tablets
for their wine lists. “Our Fleming’s WiNEPAD has
helped customers engage with wine, discover
new ones, and get advice on pairing with food,”
explains Craig Sheppard, National IT Training
Coordinator, Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse &
Wine Bar, hq Newport Beach, CA. “It’s helped
increase satisfaction and sales.” Rocky says BR
Guest has been looking at an iPad wine list but
is concerned that it might increase time between
table turns as guests become fascinated by it;
however this has not been an issue at Fleming’s,
according to Craig.
MOBILE PAYMENT While not in the pipeline
currently, Rocky says that BR Guest has been
looking at mobile payment options, even though
their guests are not screaming for it. “Right now
it’s like the ‘wild west’ – there is no standard
yet. There are some handhelds and a bunch of
apps, such as LevelUp and TabbedOut. Some
Look up restaurant location/directions
on a smartphone or tablet:
Use a computer to view menus, order
food, or make reservations online:
Order takeout or delivery
on a smartphone or tablet:
Use a restaurant reward or special
deal on a smartphone:
Place an order on a touch-screen
terminal in a restaurant:
Make a reservation using
a smartphone or tablet:
Look up nutritional information
on a smartphone or tablet:
Interact with a restaurant on social media
like Facebook, Twitter, or Instagram:
Pay for a meal with a smartphone:
%
of adults
who say they...
I’ll Have
Some More
Technology,
Please...
46 67
41 63
23 52
13 50
7 46
13 46
19 42
15 31
6 24
Have in the
last month
Would if offered
Technology on the Menu
Source: National Restaurant Association Consumer survey, 2013.
of these technologies interface directly with POS
systems and use the same credit card payment
‘pass thru’; some do not interface and are their
own credit card processors or use third-party
processors.”
Location Information “We recommend looking
at your restaurant listing on Google+ Places to
confirm the information listed is correct and that
you’ve added as much to the listing as possible
(menus, photos, etc.). Then use that same
information as a template for all other directories
such as Urbanspoon, Yelp, TripAdvisor, and
Bing,” advises Chris. Steve Brooks, Director
of Information Services/Business Analyst,
Tumbleweed, Louisville, KY, says they’ve hired
a company for about $65 per store to clean
up their online presence – checking maps and
addresses, opening and closing times, etc. “This
way we know customers are receiving correct
information when they’re searching for us.” Chris
says services like Yext update and sync geodata
and content automatically for $50-$100/month.
“If you’re doing a good job of regularly updating
menus and photos, that’s a great value.”
Advice Abigail says the biggest challenge with
new technologies is to sift through the options
and look for a solid company that has a good
track record. Steve advises, “Get three bids;
often you’ll be surprised how different they are.
And consult with people in your area who have
done a similar project – get pros and cons from
users, not just sales people. We’re part of the
Kentucky Restaurant Association and members
are always willing to talk about what works and
doesn’t work, as well as give advice, so you don’t
make a mistake.”
restaurantbriefing.com pg 4
In his annual look at the major forces shaping
the marketplace of the new year and beyond, J.
Walker Smith, Executive Chairman, The Futures
Co., describes a waning era of consumer control
– a “pivot to passive” in which consumers will step
back and assume a much less active role.
TREND There will be a shift away from a consumer-
centric, consumer-driven marketplace. This will be
the result of consumers gradually and willingly
relinquishing the major role they have come to
play in the marketplace (think user-generated
content, reviews and tips,
collaboration, co-creation,
crowdsourcing, wikis, etc.).
Walker puts this changing
of the guard in historical
context. “Consumers went
from being attentive to our
marketing – watching our
ads, paying attention to our
brands, and taking their
cues from marketers – to
actively taking the driver’s
seat in the 90s. We were
all going to create our own
content, collaborate with
one another; everybody was going to self-invent
everything for oneself. We presumed we’d all get
into the game, but we are seeing that a few people
are actually participating and controlling – not the
masses. That so many social media sites have
closed over the years or have lost their mojo shows
us how hard it is to get consumers actively involved
and to sustain that level of active engagement
in the marketplace.” Among the forces driving
consumers from active to passive engagement
is their increasing desire to unplug, to press the
pause button, to streamline their involvement,”
Walker notes. “In our Monitor data we are seeing
a decreasing percentage of people agree that they
can’t live without their cellphones. Overall, there is
a rising demand for ‘headspace,’ for some relief.
Consumers are saying, ‘I want some time off, a
moment to reflect, to be able to step back. I don’t
want to be actively engaged all the time.’”
OPPORTUNITY People use restaurants for a myriad
of reasons and one of them is for a change of
scene and “headspace.” Remember that in terms
of unplugging and escaping, one guest’s tranquil
ambiance is another’s crowded scene, so know
your audience (age is an important clue) and create
their kind of haven. Regardless of ambiance,
don’t overburden customers with an excessive
number of choices – options are important but
overload is easy when there are too many or they
are presented in a cluttered way. Consumers
are looking for someone to take the wheel, so to
speak. For example, well-trained servers can be
a huge advantage and chef’s recommendations
and/or set menus may be a welcome relief.
TREND Passive, not active, digital use will drive the
future. Walker also cites a fundamental change in
the way consumers will interact with technologies.
“We have thought that digital technologies are all
about total immersion – do it all, have access to
all, and have control over it all. But the future will
be about consumers’ passive engagement with
technology as well. Sensors are the future, not
screens. Screens require active engagement –
you have to touch a screen, you have to key into
it, you have to be involved in it. Sensors involve
passive monitoring – they will detect everything
and feed back information.” For example,
diabetics wear devices that monitor blood sugar
and automatically dispense insulin; many other
examples are already in the
marketplace or are being
tested – smart vending
machines will measure
temperature or use facial
recognition to determine
what kind of user is present
in order to vary what is
offered and how it’s priced;
sensors in clothing will
measure and monitor our
physical state; a headset
will monitor EEG levels and measure the user’s
mood, then tell their iPod what music to play to fit –
all by passive monitoring. “These kinds of devices
will contribute to a new era of information for
marketers who will have access to better data and
better analytics tools than ever before – enabling
them to predict the right fit/products for consumers
and, in real time, how to price or configure an offer.
This dynamic pricing based on real time analytics
will lead the charge.”
OPPORTUNITY Walker describes a sophisticated
scenario involving marketers tracking and
analyzing data from sensors in many forms. But
at the core is the value of information – information
you may have about consumers that they don’t
need to tell you, from their spending patterns in
your restaurant to their social media conversations.
It’s important to gather information and listen in
order to constantly refine what you offer. And a
restaurateur can be a kind of human sensor – don’t
forget the value of “reading” customers in your
dining room.
TREND Consumers are passive in their spending as well.
Another sign of diminishing consumer engagement
in the marketplace, he says, is that “money is not
circulating and consumers remain wary. Pew
Research found earlier this year that consumers
believe the economic system is no more secure
today than it was before the financial crisis.” While
Walker reports that the National Journal/Atlantic
Magazine research found 60% of the middle class
is concerned about falling out of the middle class,
he adds that in every income bracket there is some
The waning hold of consumer
control, consumers’ pivot to
passive, is the most important
thing we have seen occur in the
marketplace since the rise of
the Internet in the 1990s.	
-J. Walker Smith, executive chairman,
The Futures Co.
Consumers’ “Pivot to Passive”
TODAY’S CONSUMER
degree of financial anxiety due to uncertainty in
the marketplace ahead. So, with confidence and
finances weakened, consumers have pulled back
and slowed spending as well.
OPPORTUNITY There is a market for “money-is-
no-object” luxury experiences, but the ongoing
challenge is to entice cautious consumers to spend
in restaurants, particularly those in the middle class
where a lot of uncertainty resides. Options can play
a role in price points as well – make sure there are
items with approachable pricing incorporated on
the menu to appeal to that audience.
TREND  Control in the marketplace will revert back to
marketers, whose goal will be “conversion.” Consumers
are happy to step back from the energy drain of self-
invention, to relinquish control. “People are finding
ways to consume and live their lives in a more
passive way and that is transferring control back
to marketers,” says Walker – to those that offer
the goods and services that consumers consume.
Marketers will play a more active role and will
measure their successes differently. “We used to
think about ‘audience,’ ‘share of market,’ ‘brand
equity.’ Currently we think about and measure
‘engagement,’ which has become a buzzword in
the marketing profession. It has been about ‘active
engagement,’ about consumers doing something,
being engaged. It’s not as if that’s going to
disappear, but engagement becomes far less
important in an era where passive consumerism
is the name of the game. Moving forward, the
keystone metric will be ‘conversion,’ creating
and taking advantage of opportunities to turn
consumers into customers.”
OPPORTUNITY Passive consumers will require
marketers (including restaurateurs) to be more
active. Think about how to reach your target
market and how you can convert them into
customers. What situations should you be ready
to maximize? Working mothers heading home?
Cash-strapped Millennials looking for a place
to have a drink with friends? Relevant text and
email campaigns as well as targeted tweets can
grab their attention and convert them into action.
Another conversion opportunity for restaurants
is mobile- and location-based search, including
location-based mobile apps that help people
find restaurants, bars, happy hours, etc. around
them. It’s essential that your mobile site functions
well – that maps and directions are accurate and
that click-to-call/reserve/order functions work
seamlessly. Make sure restaurant locations are
correctly listed in all mobile directories and guides
(Google+, White Pages, Yelp, etc.) and investigate
location-based apps such as AroundMe.
For J. Walker Smith’s FutureView LIVE Replay, visit
thefuturescompany.com/
restaurantbriefing.com pg 5
Be part of the 25th Annual
American Express Restaurant Trade Program
at the Food  Wine Classic in Aspen.
Friday, June 20 – Saturday, June 21, 2014
American Express is proud to once again
assemble leading hospitality professionals,
chefs, and restaurateurs in Aspen during
the Food  Wine Classic. The 25th annual
Restaurant Trade program will include
a panel moderated by Andrew Zimmern
(Television Personality, Chef, Food Writer,
and Teacher), featuring Barbara Lynch
(Barbara Lynch Gruppo), Danny Meyer
(Union Square Hospitality Group), and
Jonathan Waxman (Barbuto) as they share
experiences and advice from their decades
in the industry. Another session will serve up
cocktail and bar trends and ways to drive bar
business.
Graham Elliot (Graham Elliot Bistro), Tom
Colicchio (Craft Restaurants), and Sean
Brock (Husk Restaurant) will weigh in on
customer loyalty in the digital age. Plus,
there will be networking opportunities at
pre-panel continental breakfasts before the
sessions, as well as during a Trade-only
Happy Hour.
The Restaurant Trade Program package
– which includes the Trade breakfasts and
sessions, the Trade-only Happy Hour, and
Trade-only early access to the Grand Tasting
Tents, as well as to the consumer wine
seminars and cooking demos – is $1,250 if
purchased before 3/15/13; $1,350 thereafter.
For more information and to purchase
tickets, visit bit.ly/1hz7Wml or call 877-
900-WINE. Or if you have questions, email
americanexpresstradeprogram@aexp.com.
Note: The Trade Program sells out quickly, so
reserve soon.
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Services Company, Inc. by Davidson/Freundlich Co., Inc.
All suggestions become the property of American Express
without cost or obligation to American Express.
© 2013 American Express Travel Related Services Company, Inc.
email: editors@restaurantbriefing.com
POURING PROFITS
Wine, beer, and spirits trends for the new year
continue to reflect consumers’ growing interest
in/desire for micro-distilled and artisanal products
that are locally produced, and packed with flavor.
BEER According to David Decker, President,
Consumer Edge Insight, the good news for beer
is that it’s seeing gains among the two groups that it
has long struggled to reach: women and older drinkers
(55+). As a result, he says, “It’s not time to start
cutting back on the beers you serve; if anything,
maybe reconsider the types you offer.” Benj
Steinman, Publisher, Beer Marketer’s Insights,
reports that while on-premise beer sales are
down as much as 4%,
sales of craft beers on
premise are up modestly.
And, while still a small
percentage of sales, craft
beer in cans is growing
explosively, especially in
the more casual chains,
with certain brewers (i.e.,
Oskar Blues) only selling in
cans. “Also, the appeal of
sour beers has broadened
from an initially small base
– there’s a lot of cache
about them. I think they definitely can have a
place on an expanded beer list in a fine dining
establishment because their flavor profile pairs
well with food.” He notes that New Belgium, a
Colorado craft brewer, is making a beer it calls
“tart,” Snapshot Wheat, which has a hint of
sour and is more sessional (low alcohol, with
a balanced flavor of hops and malt) and more
subtle in flavor than traditional sour beers. Benj
adds that smoked beers, while trendy, are a very
tiny niche product (i.e., Stone Brewing’s Smoked
Porter with Vanilla Bean).
HARD CIDER While on-premise sales of hard cider are
very small compared to other alcoholic beverages,
sales are up dramatically, especially with women.
GuestMetrics reports that in the third quarter
of 2013, hard cider sales grew 52%. Michael
Whiteman, President, Baum + Whiteman, says
hard cider has appeal because “it’s food friendly,
low-alcohol and gluten-free.” Technomic reports
that beer brewers and major beer suppliers are
now entering the cider market.
WINE “We’re seeing a desire on behalf of
restaurants to offer exclusive wines, leading to
a renewed support for local wines, a boost in
private labels, and fresh attention to boutique or
micro-production California wines,” says W. R.
Tish, Managing Editor, Beverage Media Group.
“These types of wines are often offbeat and food
friendly, as well as obscure enough to allow for
healthy margins.” Ronn Wiegand, publisher,
Restaurant Wine, says that red blends and white
blends have surged in popularity, especially those on
lists in the $5-$12 per glass and $25-$60 per bottle
categories. “These blends usually contain one
(or more) international varieties – Chardonnay,
Sauvignon Blanc, Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot,
Syrah, Malbec, Zinfandel, Grenache, and are
‘built up’ from there.” He says Prosecco alternatives
– international bubblies in the same price range – are
proliferating, and fueling interest in quality sparkling
wines from around the world, especially those from
France (Cremant), Germany (Sekt), Spain (Cava
and others), and other regions in Italy. Evan
Goldstein, President/Chief Education Officer,
Full Circle Wine Solutions, Inc., says, “The
reality is, for most restaurants sales of wines-by-
the-glass drive their wine
business, so preservation
is critical.” There are inert
gas systems like Enomatic
and inserts such as Wine
Shield, but the big buzz, he
says, is around Coravin.
This device enables a
small amount of wine to
be extracted from a bottle
without pulling the cork,
providing an opportunity to
offer small tastes or glasses – perfect for older,
rare, expensive bottles.
SPIRITS Jon Taffer, President, Nightclub  Bar
Media Group, and Host/Executive Producer of
Spike TV’s “Bar Rescue,” says flavored spirits
are the single most powerful beverage trend today.
“What began with flavored vodkas, which are
still popular, has moved into flavored whiskies,
tequilas, and rums, all of which offer great
mixability,” says Jon. “With these spirits it’s
important to create cocktails around them as
they’re rarely ordered neat.” He advises buying
flavored spirits by the bottle, as some might not
have a long shelf life, and adds, “Ice is a critical
part of the quality equation of any great drink,
with sanitation and filtration being key.” Jon says
a company called Glace makes and ships luxury
ice – purified so it has no taste, the individually-
wrapped spheres are good for those serving
high-end whiskies and scotches. Lu Brow, Bar
Chef, Cafe Adelaide  The Swizzle Stick Bar,
New Orleans, LA, is part of a growing group
who barrel age cocktails. “They’re great for a busy bar
because all you have to do is pull the tap,” she says.
Lu recommends using a very small barrel, as it’s
a less expensive mistake if it doesn’t work out,
and to remember to soak the barrel first. Michael
says the latest fixation of artisanal bartenders is
making bespoke vermouths and stocking dozens
of them. Lu adds that she finds having vermouth
in a cocktail is very appealing to women, as it has
fewer calories and a lower alcohol level.
Raising Our Glasses to 2014!
Tap technology is
revolutionizing the beverage
world - from beer, wine, and
cocktails to taps for fruity
soft drinks and barrel-aged
cold-brewed coffee.
- Darren Tristano,
Executive VP, Technomic

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Restaurant Trends 2014 by Restaurant Briefing

  • 1. restaurantbriefing.com pg 1 INDUSTRY UPDATE Jan/Feb 2014 In this edition Technology on the Menu Beverage Trends Passive Consumers restaurantbriefing.com Helping Restaurateurs Adapt to a Changing Marketplace over35years Hudson Riehle, Senior VP, Research & Knowledge Group, National Restaurant Association, predicts that the OPERATING ENVIRONMENT FOR RESTAURANTS in 2014 will continue on the same positive – but modest – growth path. “Overall, we’re certainly not looking at a rebound to prosperity, but things are headed in the right direction. Last year was the fourth consecutive year of growth for the restaurant industry, although modest. Moving into 2014, economic indicators such as real domestic product, real disposable income, and employment growth remain positive.” Employment growth – which Hudson says shows signs of being somewhat higher in 2014 – is especially key for the industry because even a small uptick in employment translates into a greater ability for consumers to spend in restaurants. Another important element in spending decisions is consumer confidence, which – while still “sub- optimal,” Hudson cautions – is up compared to several years ago. “Operators will need to continue to nudge consumers into decisions to patronize their restaurants.” And they will do so in a robust competitive environment. “If you look at the number of units – points of access for customers – they continue to grow, and the economic environment of the last few years has created a battle for market share. One of the more important developments in 2014 and beyond is how operators view competition, which, over the last couple of decades, has been defined as other operators in a specific trading area. But it’s important to look at competition in terms of consumer spending in other categories – not just other restaurants.” To be truly competitive, Hudson advises, operators must look at consumer spending more holistically and take into consideration that over half is on housing and transportation. “Only 13% of consumer spending is on food and it has gradually been edging downward; consumers have been increasingly spending more in other areas.” To respond, Hudson counsels restaurateurs to take a cue from the grocery store industry, which, he notes, has been much more proactive about being relevant to consumers’ spending needs other than food – providing discounts on gas based on grocery purchases, for example. “I think we’ll see more restaurant operators link spending in their establishments to other areas which otherwise would provide competition for that spending.” For example, Hudson says hypothetically he could see restaurants linking guest spending to discounts on transportation, or on utilities, apparel, and entertainment. “This could provide nudges to patronize restaurants on various occasions. Restaurateurs are only limited by their imaginations and by how they can align with different businesses.” MichaelWhiteman, President, Baum + Whiteman, sees agrowingappetiteforluxury in RESTAURANT CONCEPTS and MENUS. In spite of a sluggish overall economy, but buoyed by Wall Street, Michael notes, “A lot of people are throwing around wads of money.” As a result, he observes a shift in influence. “In my opinion, a couple of years ago most of the movement in the restaurant world was ‘trickle up,’ in part from renegades – pushing combinations, clashing ethnicities, making disparate flavors work together. These were the people running food trucks, opening hip joints, and their influence was pushing into the upper reaches of fine dining.” Now, he concludes, “There’s enough money sloshing around that luxury – in the form of things like costly tasting menus, chicken priced like steak, upscale food halls, spare-no-expense tabletop, and technology-enabled custom environments – is thriving and trickling down in lots of different ways.” For example, Michael cites a proliferation of upscale tasting- only menus but says that we’ll see their influence in less elite settings with more tasting menu options added to a la carte menus. Another example is the elite tier of restaurants creating opportunities for the second tier. “The more the top restaurants charge these days, the more people want to be there. But when they can’t get in, the second tier restaurants gain in popularity.” And he says that price de- sensitivity by some also now means it’s possible for many to charge a lot of money for once humble chicken. “You can pay $70 for chicken in a fancy restaurant or $70 for chicken in a warehouse,” albeit an exclusive warehouse. And why has chicken gone haute? “Because chicken is something that can be glorified. Plus a lot of restaurateurs have convinced people they have found ‘the way’ to prepare chicken, but it’s a lot of mythology – the difference between a chicken with a small c and big C is marginal.” Trends to Watch 2014 INDUSTRY UPDATE More trend resources and insights for the year ahead and beyond 12 Hottest Food & Beverage Trends for Restaurants and Hotel Dining for 2014 (baumwhiteman.com) bit.ly/1bbgEic AF&Co. Presents 2014 Trends: # Blurred Lines (afandco.com) bit.ly/IQgbvC Technomic’s Take: 10 Trends for 2014 (technomic.com) bit.ly/1hXkEeC 5 Restaurant Trends You Can’t Ignore (restaurant-hospitality.com) bit.ly/1ej8jRA 2020 Vision: The Future of Foodservice (nrn.com) bit.ly/1bbgGGW 2014 Food Trends: What You Should Expect In The Year To Come (FohBoh.com) bit.ly/JzW0CQ 2014 Predictions: Branding & Social Culture (foodabletv.com) bit.ly/J0njF5 Food and Drink Predictions for 2014 (Details.com) bit.ly/1gC6MWU 10 Food Trends to Watch (HuffingtonPost.com) huff.to/1c7FAgD Consumers to Dine Out Less Often in 2014 (nrn.com) bit.ly/18vqQre 7 Consumer Trends to Run With in 2014 (Trendwatching.com) bit.ly/18vqW1P >> continues on page 2 >> continues on page 2
  • 2. restaurantbriefing.com pg 2 In a move to appeal to consumers who are willing to spend, enter upscale “food halls,” as a replacement for or in addition to food courts, especially in shopping centers eager to attract new consumers, keep existing ones, and encourage them to linger. According to Michael, the best will combine on-premise manufacturing, dining, takeaway, and retail, and will feature “artisan” food by local name-brand restaurants. “Three, four, five upscale restaurants plus some at the lower end becomes a real restaurant destination. There are a lot of people who will go to a food hall who wouldn’t go to a food court, and it’s something you can’t experience online. So if a landlord has to recycle the space that was once Borders Books, he or she will fill it full of food. It’s all part of a larger trend of restaurants, with high sales per square foot and repeat customers, becoming ‘anchors’ – not just in shopping malls and department stores, but in hotels, airports, and museums.” Michael sees another trickle-down path – from restaurants in Saks, Macy’s, or Nordstrom to the likes of cafes/bars/ juiceries/yogurt counters in bike shops. Luxury is also extending into the neurosensory arena. “Food is not enough at the high end. Restaurants are enhancing the dining experience by fiddling with our senses, redefining ‘eatertainment’.” Michael uses terms like “psychotasting” and “sensory integration,” referring to a growing trend of restaurants playing to senses we don’t normally use when eating. It could be INDUSTRY UPDATE (continued) meals in the dark or in silence; a multi-act, multi-course banquet/opera; music and visuals cued to courses; tactile tableware; diffusers controlling temperature, humidity, and aromas. “The places doing this experience game are generally small, accommodating 10-15-20 diners willing to dump a lot of money. It’s the equivalent of whitewater rafting with your own guide, or climbing Mt. Everest with your own Sherpa – part bragging rights and part the experience itself.” Speaking of money, Michael says the smart money is placing bets on better-for-you dining. “It’s a niche market that’s rolling into the mainstream, from salad restaurants (many of which have evolved from being hippie joints) to high-priced vegetable tasting menus as part of upscale menus – with fast feeders sure to follow if they can figure out how to make healthy fit their formats.” More than one factor propels this momentum, he adds: “the gluten-rejecters, Paleo people, diabetics, weight-challenged, vegetarians, vegans, and two decades of nudging by nutritionists, ‘food nazis,’ and perhaps the First Lady.” He predicts we’ll see more “plant-based ‘faux food’ with waiter service” and more restaurants appealing to some consumers’ newfound protein obsessions. “Winners will be those restaurants that can appeal to people who don’t want to eat processed food and who want evidence they are eating food that’s good for them.” >> Hudson Riehle continued from page 1 AROUND THE USA Local topped the list again in the National Restaurant Association’s “What’s Hot” chefs’ survey of food and menu trends. Looking to 2014, locally-sourced meats and seafood and locally-grown produce retained their #1 and #2 rankings, respectively. Otheritemsremaininginthespotlight are environmental sustainability (#3) and healthful kids’ meals (#4.) Moving up from last year are gluten-free cuisine (from #8 to #5); hyperlocal sourcing (e.g., restaurant gardens from #6 to #5); and wheat noodles/pasta such as quinoa, rice, buckwheat (from #12 to #8). It’s interesting to note that 10 food trends have remained in the top 20 since 2009: locally-grown produce, healthful kids’ meals, gluten-free cuisine, sustainable seafood, health/nutrition, new cuts of meat, ancient grains, ethnic-inspired breakfast items, nontraditional fish, and fruit/vegetable sides in kids’ meals. There are three new additions to the top 20: nose to tail/root to stalk cooking (e.g., using entire animal/plant) at #11; ancient grains (e.g., INDUSTRY INTELLIGENCE kamut, spelt, amaranth) is #15; and grazing (e.g., small-plate sharing/snacking instead of traditional meals) ranks #17. By contrast, moving out of the top 20 are house-made/artisan ice cream (now #45); black/forbidden rice (#31); and food trucks (#41). Also trending downward – considered “yesterday’s news” by more than half of the chefs surveyed – are foam/froth, bacon-flavored chocolate, fish offal, gazpacho, fun-shaped children’s items, mini-burgers/sliders, barnacles, flowers, dust, and molecular gastronomy. Gelato, micro-greens, tapas/meze/dim sum, and dessert flights are also among the items that chefs report are cooling off. The five newest – rated “hot trend” by 59% to 67% of those surveyed – are grazing/small plate sharing, hybrid desserts (e.g., cronut, townie, ice cream cupcake), uncommon herbs (e.g., chervil, lovage, lemon balm, papalo), natural sweeteners (e.g., agave, honey, concentrated fruit juice, maple syrup), and kale salads. Other preparations chefs cited as being of the moment were pickling, fermenting, smoking, sous vide, and liquid nitrogen chilling/ freezing. Fried chicken, Italian cuisine, frying, and barbeque scored the most votes in the category of perennial favorites. Looking into the future, when asked which current trend will be the hottest menu trend in 10 years, 38% answered environmental sustainability and 22% said local sourcing, indicating the staying power that chefs believe these practices will have; 18% said health/nutrition; 10% children’s nutrition; and only 8% gluten-free. Note: The National Restaurant Association’s “What’s Hot in 2014” is a survey of more than 1,300 professional chef members of the American Culinary Federation (ACF). For more info, visit restaurant.org/News-Research/Research/What-s-Hot. Hot Menu Trends for 2014 Restaurants could also draw some inspiration from the airline and hotel industries, Hudson continues. “Another area we’ll see develop in 2014 and in coming years is ‘yield management’ – making frequent adjustments in pricing in response to market factors such as demand, competition, or inventory. Technology now potentially gives operators the ability to change menu prices depending on the time of day, day of the week, inventory levels, etc. For example, QSRs used to have printed menu boards – now digital screens allow them to change prices quickly. Four out of five consumers say that if a restaurant offered off-peak pricing, it would incent them to use foodservice solutions more; with the adoption of tablet menus in tableservice, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario that would allow operators to selectively price items. And many already tweet special offers or menu items for a specific day and time. Overall, it’s a new frontier for the restaurant industry, but if you look at airlines and hotels, for example, consumers think nothing about sitting next to someone on a plane or being in a hotel with those who have paid a different price. It doesn’t mean that every operator will go down this road, but for some it will make sense to test and implement pricing variations.” Overall Hudson says that while technology isn’t a panacea, it’s a valuable tool in operators’ tool belts. “Certainly the timing of the evolution of technologies that enable these kind of programs is fortuitous for the restaurant industry in 2014 and beyond.” >> Michael Whiteman continued from page 1
  • 3. restaurantbriefing.com pg 3 Industry Update According to recent National Restaurant Association consumer research, well over half of U.S. adults (63%) have used restaurant-related technologies. When asked what they’d done in the past month, those surveyed were most likely to have looked for a restaurant location and directions on a mobile device and also to have viewed menus, ordered food, or made online reservations on a computer. When it comes to the technologies consumers would use if offered, the same two top the list: looking up a restaurant location and getting directions (underscoring the importance of claiming listings in online directories); and using a computer to view menus, order, or make reservations (elements which should be part of a restaurant’s online presence on its own website and/or via third-party sites). In almost all cases, the younger the consumer, the stronger the attraction to the technologies included in the study. For example, compared to the average of all adults, Millennials (aged 18-34) would be more likely to look up nutritional information on a mobile device (70%), interact with a restaurant on social media (56%), order takeout/delivery on a mobile device (74%), and look up location/ directions on a mobile device (88%) if offered. But don’t sell older customers short – almost a quarter (23%) of those aged 65+ said they’d use a reward or special deal on a mobile device. NRAresearch also shows that while the consumer- facing technologies in the study are presently offered by a limited number of restaurants, 54% of tableservice and 48% of quickservice operators say they plan to invest to close the gap between what they currently offer and what consumers say they want. Some things to consider: MOBILE TOOLS Abigail Lorden, Editor-in-Chief, Hospitality Technology, says, “We’re seeing much more interest in mobile tools, with the ultimate goal of engaging customers, improving their experiences, and streamlining operations. Mobile is becoming the most important way to communicate with customers.” Rocky Lucia, IT Director, BR Guest, Inc., hq New York, NY, agrees. “With everyone using smartphones and tablets, a mobile-friendly site is a necessity today.” Chris Shirer, CEO, Madison & Fifth, a digital agency specializing in restaurants, hospitality, and retail, reports that 40% of Cameron Mitchell Restaurants’ website viewership is now on mobile devices. She says, “It’s also important that emails be read easily on mobile devices, so we use MailChimp.com which resizes emails automatically to the recipients’screens.” Plus, she advises, it’s key to support flash animation and HTML5 for video, so that if a device doesn’t have flash, the video will be automatically bumped to HTML5. “The challenge continues to be third-party providers, such as those who sell gift cards, that aren’t mobile friendly yet.” TABLET TECHNOLOGIES It was recently reported that Applebee’s intends to install 100,000 tablet computers in more than 1,800 locations nationwide by the end of 2014. Julia Stewart, CEO, DineEquity (Applebee’s’ parent company), said customers had been telling them for some time that they don’t like waiting for a check and that tablets will present the company with a unique opportunity and competitive advantage. This technology will allow customers to pay at the table, order, and play games, giving Applebee’s another way to engage and communicate with their guests. Similar devices are being used by other casual dining restaurant chains, including Chili’s, Red Robin, McDonald’s, and Buffalo Wild Wings. While upscale and white tablecloth operators are continuing to evaluate the use of tablets, some are having success using tablets for their wine lists. “Our Fleming’s WiNEPAD has helped customers engage with wine, discover new ones, and get advice on pairing with food,” explains Craig Sheppard, National IT Training Coordinator, Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, hq Newport Beach, CA. “It’s helped increase satisfaction and sales.” Rocky says BR Guest has been looking at an iPad wine list but is concerned that it might increase time between table turns as guests become fascinated by it; however this has not been an issue at Fleming’s, according to Craig. MOBILE PAYMENT While not in the pipeline currently, Rocky says that BR Guest has been looking at mobile payment options, even though their guests are not screaming for it. “Right now it’s like the ‘wild west’ – there is no standard yet. There are some handhelds and a bunch of apps, such as LevelUp and TabbedOut. Some Look up restaurant location/directions on a smartphone or tablet: Use a computer to view menus, order food, or make reservations online: Order takeout or delivery on a smartphone or tablet: Use a restaurant reward or special deal on a smartphone: Place an order on a touch-screen terminal in a restaurant: Make a reservation using a smartphone or tablet: Look up nutritional information on a smartphone or tablet: Interact with a restaurant on social media like Facebook, Twitter, or Instagram: Pay for a meal with a smartphone: % of adults who say they... I’ll Have Some More Technology, Please... 46 67 41 63 23 52 13 50 7 46 13 46 19 42 15 31 6 24 Have in the last month Would if offered Technology on the Menu Source: National Restaurant Association Consumer survey, 2013. of these technologies interface directly with POS systems and use the same credit card payment ‘pass thru’; some do not interface and are their own credit card processors or use third-party processors.” Location Information “We recommend looking at your restaurant listing on Google+ Places to confirm the information listed is correct and that you’ve added as much to the listing as possible (menus, photos, etc.). Then use that same information as a template for all other directories such as Urbanspoon, Yelp, TripAdvisor, and Bing,” advises Chris. Steve Brooks, Director of Information Services/Business Analyst, Tumbleweed, Louisville, KY, says they’ve hired a company for about $65 per store to clean up their online presence – checking maps and addresses, opening and closing times, etc. “This way we know customers are receiving correct information when they’re searching for us.” Chris says services like Yext update and sync geodata and content automatically for $50-$100/month. “If you’re doing a good job of regularly updating menus and photos, that’s a great value.” Advice Abigail says the biggest challenge with new technologies is to sift through the options and look for a solid company that has a good track record. Steve advises, “Get three bids; often you’ll be surprised how different they are. And consult with people in your area who have done a similar project – get pros and cons from users, not just sales people. We’re part of the Kentucky Restaurant Association and members are always willing to talk about what works and doesn’t work, as well as give advice, so you don’t make a mistake.”
  • 4. restaurantbriefing.com pg 4 In his annual look at the major forces shaping the marketplace of the new year and beyond, J. Walker Smith, Executive Chairman, The Futures Co., describes a waning era of consumer control – a “pivot to passive” in which consumers will step back and assume a much less active role. TREND There will be a shift away from a consumer- centric, consumer-driven marketplace. This will be the result of consumers gradually and willingly relinquishing the major role they have come to play in the marketplace (think user-generated content, reviews and tips, collaboration, co-creation, crowdsourcing, wikis, etc.). Walker puts this changing of the guard in historical context. “Consumers went from being attentive to our marketing – watching our ads, paying attention to our brands, and taking their cues from marketers – to actively taking the driver’s seat in the 90s. We were all going to create our own content, collaborate with one another; everybody was going to self-invent everything for oneself. We presumed we’d all get into the game, but we are seeing that a few people are actually participating and controlling – not the masses. That so many social media sites have closed over the years or have lost their mojo shows us how hard it is to get consumers actively involved and to sustain that level of active engagement in the marketplace.” Among the forces driving consumers from active to passive engagement is their increasing desire to unplug, to press the pause button, to streamline their involvement,” Walker notes. “In our Monitor data we are seeing a decreasing percentage of people agree that they can’t live without their cellphones. Overall, there is a rising demand for ‘headspace,’ for some relief. Consumers are saying, ‘I want some time off, a moment to reflect, to be able to step back. I don’t want to be actively engaged all the time.’” OPPORTUNITY People use restaurants for a myriad of reasons and one of them is for a change of scene and “headspace.” Remember that in terms of unplugging and escaping, one guest’s tranquil ambiance is another’s crowded scene, so know your audience (age is an important clue) and create their kind of haven. Regardless of ambiance, don’t overburden customers with an excessive number of choices – options are important but overload is easy when there are too many or they are presented in a cluttered way. Consumers are looking for someone to take the wheel, so to speak. For example, well-trained servers can be a huge advantage and chef’s recommendations and/or set menus may be a welcome relief. TREND Passive, not active, digital use will drive the future. Walker also cites a fundamental change in the way consumers will interact with technologies. “We have thought that digital technologies are all about total immersion – do it all, have access to all, and have control over it all. But the future will be about consumers’ passive engagement with technology as well. Sensors are the future, not screens. Screens require active engagement – you have to touch a screen, you have to key into it, you have to be involved in it. Sensors involve passive monitoring – they will detect everything and feed back information.” For example, diabetics wear devices that monitor blood sugar and automatically dispense insulin; many other examples are already in the marketplace or are being tested – smart vending machines will measure temperature or use facial recognition to determine what kind of user is present in order to vary what is offered and how it’s priced; sensors in clothing will measure and monitor our physical state; a headset will monitor EEG levels and measure the user’s mood, then tell their iPod what music to play to fit – all by passive monitoring. “These kinds of devices will contribute to a new era of information for marketers who will have access to better data and better analytics tools than ever before – enabling them to predict the right fit/products for consumers and, in real time, how to price or configure an offer. This dynamic pricing based on real time analytics will lead the charge.” OPPORTUNITY Walker describes a sophisticated scenario involving marketers tracking and analyzing data from sensors in many forms. But at the core is the value of information – information you may have about consumers that they don’t need to tell you, from their spending patterns in your restaurant to their social media conversations. It’s important to gather information and listen in order to constantly refine what you offer. And a restaurateur can be a kind of human sensor – don’t forget the value of “reading” customers in your dining room. TREND Consumers are passive in their spending as well. Another sign of diminishing consumer engagement in the marketplace, he says, is that “money is not circulating and consumers remain wary. Pew Research found earlier this year that consumers believe the economic system is no more secure today than it was before the financial crisis.” While Walker reports that the National Journal/Atlantic Magazine research found 60% of the middle class is concerned about falling out of the middle class, he adds that in every income bracket there is some The waning hold of consumer control, consumers’ pivot to passive, is the most important thing we have seen occur in the marketplace since the rise of the Internet in the 1990s. -J. Walker Smith, executive chairman, The Futures Co. Consumers’ “Pivot to Passive” TODAY’S CONSUMER degree of financial anxiety due to uncertainty in the marketplace ahead. So, with confidence and finances weakened, consumers have pulled back and slowed spending as well. OPPORTUNITY There is a market for “money-is- no-object” luxury experiences, but the ongoing challenge is to entice cautious consumers to spend in restaurants, particularly those in the middle class where a lot of uncertainty resides. Options can play a role in price points as well – make sure there are items with approachable pricing incorporated on the menu to appeal to that audience. TREND  Control in the marketplace will revert back to marketers, whose goal will be “conversion.” Consumers are happy to step back from the energy drain of self- invention, to relinquish control. “People are finding ways to consume and live their lives in a more passive way and that is transferring control back to marketers,” says Walker – to those that offer the goods and services that consumers consume. Marketers will play a more active role and will measure their successes differently. “We used to think about ‘audience,’ ‘share of market,’ ‘brand equity.’ Currently we think about and measure ‘engagement,’ which has become a buzzword in the marketing profession. It has been about ‘active engagement,’ about consumers doing something, being engaged. It’s not as if that’s going to disappear, but engagement becomes far less important in an era where passive consumerism is the name of the game. Moving forward, the keystone metric will be ‘conversion,’ creating and taking advantage of opportunities to turn consumers into customers.” OPPORTUNITY Passive consumers will require marketers (including restaurateurs) to be more active. Think about how to reach your target market and how you can convert them into customers. What situations should you be ready to maximize? Working mothers heading home? Cash-strapped Millennials looking for a place to have a drink with friends? Relevant text and email campaigns as well as targeted tweets can grab their attention and convert them into action. Another conversion opportunity for restaurants is mobile- and location-based search, including location-based mobile apps that help people find restaurants, bars, happy hours, etc. around them. It’s essential that your mobile site functions well – that maps and directions are accurate and that click-to-call/reserve/order functions work seamlessly. Make sure restaurant locations are correctly listed in all mobile directories and guides (Google+, White Pages, Yelp, etc.) and investigate location-based apps such as AroundMe. For J. Walker Smith’s FutureView LIVE Replay, visit thefuturescompany.com/
  • 5. restaurantbriefing.com pg 5 Be part of the 25th Annual American Express Restaurant Trade Program at the Food Wine Classic in Aspen. Friday, June 20 – Saturday, June 21, 2014 American Express is proud to once again assemble leading hospitality professionals, chefs, and restaurateurs in Aspen during the Food Wine Classic. The 25th annual Restaurant Trade program will include a panel moderated by Andrew Zimmern (Television Personality, Chef, Food Writer, and Teacher), featuring Barbara Lynch (Barbara Lynch Gruppo), Danny Meyer (Union Square Hospitality Group), and Jonathan Waxman (Barbuto) as they share experiences and advice from their decades in the industry. Another session will serve up cocktail and bar trends and ways to drive bar business. Graham Elliot (Graham Elliot Bistro), Tom Colicchio (Craft Restaurants), and Sean Brock (Husk Restaurant) will weigh in on customer loyalty in the digital age. Plus, there will be networking opportunities at pre-panel continental breakfasts before the sessions, as well as during a Trade-only Happy Hour. The Restaurant Trade Program package – which includes the Trade breakfasts and sessions, the Trade-only Happy Hour, and Trade-only early access to the Grand Tasting Tents, as well as to the consumer wine seminars and cooking demos – is $1,250 if purchased before 3/15/13; $1,350 thereafter. For more information and to purchase tickets, visit bit.ly/1hz7Wml or call 877- 900-WINE. Or if you have questions, email americanexpresstradeprogram@aexp.com. Note: The Trade Program sells out quickly, so reserve soon. Make Partnership Rewarding SM with American Express AROUND THE USA RESTAURANT BRIEFING AVAILABLE EXCLUSIVELY ONLINE For a free subscription visit restaurantbriefing.com Published exclusively for American Express Travel Related Services Company, Inc. by Davidson/Freundlich Co., Inc. All suggestions become the property of American Express without cost or obligation to American Express. © 2013 American Express Travel Related Services Company, Inc. email: editors@restaurantbriefing.com POURING PROFITS Wine, beer, and spirits trends for the new year continue to reflect consumers’ growing interest in/desire for micro-distilled and artisanal products that are locally produced, and packed with flavor. BEER According to David Decker, President, Consumer Edge Insight, the good news for beer is that it’s seeing gains among the two groups that it has long struggled to reach: women and older drinkers (55+). As a result, he says, “It’s not time to start cutting back on the beers you serve; if anything, maybe reconsider the types you offer.” Benj Steinman, Publisher, Beer Marketer’s Insights, reports that while on-premise beer sales are down as much as 4%, sales of craft beers on premise are up modestly. And, while still a small percentage of sales, craft beer in cans is growing explosively, especially in the more casual chains, with certain brewers (i.e., Oskar Blues) only selling in cans. “Also, the appeal of sour beers has broadened from an initially small base – there’s a lot of cache about them. I think they definitely can have a place on an expanded beer list in a fine dining establishment because their flavor profile pairs well with food.” He notes that New Belgium, a Colorado craft brewer, is making a beer it calls “tart,” Snapshot Wheat, which has a hint of sour and is more sessional (low alcohol, with a balanced flavor of hops and malt) and more subtle in flavor than traditional sour beers. Benj adds that smoked beers, while trendy, are a very tiny niche product (i.e., Stone Brewing’s Smoked Porter with Vanilla Bean). HARD CIDER While on-premise sales of hard cider are very small compared to other alcoholic beverages, sales are up dramatically, especially with women. GuestMetrics reports that in the third quarter of 2013, hard cider sales grew 52%. Michael Whiteman, President, Baum + Whiteman, says hard cider has appeal because “it’s food friendly, low-alcohol and gluten-free.” Technomic reports that beer brewers and major beer suppliers are now entering the cider market. WINE “We’re seeing a desire on behalf of restaurants to offer exclusive wines, leading to a renewed support for local wines, a boost in private labels, and fresh attention to boutique or micro-production California wines,” says W. R. Tish, Managing Editor, Beverage Media Group. “These types of wines are often offbeat and food friendly, as well as obscure enough to allow for healthy margins.” Ronn Wiegand, publisher, Restaurant Wine, says that red blends and white blends have surged in popularity, especially those on lists in the $5-$12 per glass and $25-$60 per bottle categories. “These blends usually contain one (or more) international varieties – Chardonnay, Sauvignon Blanc, Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot, Syrah, Malbec, Zinfandel, Grenache, and are ‘built up’ from there.” He says Prosecco alternatives – international bubblies in the same price range – are proliferating, and fueling interest in quality sparkling wines from around the world, especially those from France (Cremant), Germany (Sekt), Spain (Cava and others), and other regions in Italy. Evan Goldstein, President/Chief Education Officer, Full Circle Wine Solutions, Inc., says, “The reality is, for most restaurants sales of wines-by- the-glass drive their wine business, so preservation is critical.” There are inert gas systems like Enomatic and inserts such as Wine Shield, but the big buzz, he says, is around Coravin. This device enables a small amount of wine to be extracted from a bottle without pulling the cork, providing an opportunity to offer small tastes or glasses – perfect for older, rare, expensive bottles. SPIRITS Jon Taffer, President, Nightclub Bar Media Group, and Host/Executive Producer of Spike TV’s “Bar Rescue,” says flavored spirits are the single most powerful beverage trend today. “What began with flavored vodkas, which are still popular, has moved into flavored whiskies, tequilas, and rums, all of which offer great mixability,” says Jon. “With these spirits it’s important to create cocktails around them as they’re rarely ordered neat.” He advises buying flavored spirits by the bottle, as some might not have a long shelf life, and adds, “Ice is a critical part of the quality equation of any great drink, with sanitation and filtration being key.” Jon says a company called Glace makes and ships luxury ice – purified so it has no taste, the individually- wrapped spheres are good for those serving high-end whiskies and scotches. Lu Brow, Bar Chef, Cafe Adelaide The Swizzle Stick Bar, New Orleans, LA, is part of a growing group who barrel age cocktails. “They’re great for a busy bar because all you have to do is pull the tap,” she says. Lu recommends using a very small barrel, as it’s a less expensive mistake if it doesn’t work out, and to remember to soak the barrel first. Michael says the latest fixation of artisanal bartenders is making bespoke vermouths and stocking dozens of them. Lu adds that she finds having vermouth in a cocktail is very appealing to women, as it has fewer calories and a lower alcohol level. Raising Our Glasses to 2014! Tap technology is revolutionizing the beverage world - from beer, wine, and cocktails to taps for fruity soft drinks and barrel-aged cold-brewed coffee. - Darren Tristano, Executive VP, Technomic