4. "It is a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth." Jevons argued that improvements in fuel efficiency tend to increase , rather than decrease , fuel use.
5. Challenges for the coming week Try extending this model to include a third array element such as a dishwasher. Try to include the price per kWh into the refrigerator size calculation. Start on your own model.
7. Defining model scope What length of time should a model simulate? Answer 1: Long enough to demonstrate the key behavior TIME Key behavior
8. Defining model scope How long to demonstrate the key behavior? Restocking ATMs with Cash Temperature of coffee in a cup Deforestation Hiring sales people at a company Residents of a city Electric vehicle sales iPad Sales Refrigerator sales
9. Defining model scope How long to demonstrate the key behavior? Restocking ATMs with Cash Temperature of coffee in a cup Deforestation Hiring sales people at a company Residents of a city Electric vehicle sales iPad Sales Refrigerator sales 10 – 30 Days 10 – 120 Minutes 5 – 100 Years 8 – 52 weeks 5 – 250 Years 5 – 50 Years 2 – 5 Years 10 – 50 Years
11. Defining model scope What length of time should a model simulate? Answer 2: Short enough to keep your audience engaged Managers Citizens Farmers State Governors Environmentalists
12. Defining model scope How much detail should you model? Answer: We will discuss this in week 6.
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14. System Dynamics: behavior caused feedback and delays Where to learn more: Road Maps Series from Creative Learning Exchange (free) Book: Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World ($75 - $150) Refrigerators Retired Refrigerators Time Delay
15. 18 State Functions Available in Forio Simulate ACCUM ACCUMPERIOD DELAY DERIVN ENDTIME FORECAST HIVAL INITIAL LOVAL PREVIOUS PULSE RAMP REMEMBER SAMPLE SMOOTH STOCK TIMECYCLE TREND
17. Challenges for the coming week What do you do if the length of time to demonstrate the key behavior is greater than the time your audience cares about? Change the model to assume people will only increase but never decrease the size of their appliances Change the model to account for population growth and the growth of new appliances due to population growth
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