What is the public sector foresight scene like in Singapore today? Sharings from MTI to Korea Women's Development Institute session in Seoul Dec 2011.

1. Futures Group
Seoul, Dec 2011
LEE Chor Pharn
Futures Group, Ministry of Trade & Industry, Singapore
http://futures-group.net
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2. CONTENT
policy making &
foresight in singapore
futures group
examples

3. POLICY MAKING &
FORESIGHT IN SINGAPORE
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4. foresight in singapore
governance – an evolving concept
1980s 1990s 2000s
• Supply-side • Introducing • Accelerating
interventions management changes
• Thatcherism and business • Deepening
• Reaganomics practices to complexities
government
How can we prepare for a future where we
will face strategic surprises time and again?
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5. foresight in singapore
what are the strategic issus?
Black Wicked
Swans Problems
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6. singapore’s experiences
policy making over the years
9-11
(2001)
SARS
(2003)
1980s – 90s
• Simple processes &
(Developing) • Long term complex
structures issues
• Basic defining rules • Infrastructure • Eg. ageing population,
• Eg. law & order, clean • Growth climate change,
up streets • Eg. city planning, marriage-procreation
traffic management
1960s – 1970s 2000s +
(Setting up) (Sustaining)
Climate
Change Tsunami
Ageing (2011)
Financial
Resources (2008+)
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7. singapore’s experiences
policy making over the years
Process Control Management Complexity National Traits
Science Management
• Efficiency
• Compliance • Engineer
……..• Anticipate  Speed
 Agility
• Manage  Nimbleness
Need to move from being:
Good at fail-safe to Comfortable with safe-fail
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8. singapore’s response
WOG approach to strategic thinking
Whole-of-
Central Distributed
Government
Foresight Foresight
(WOG)
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9. singapore’s response
central foresight
1980s – Scenario Planning 2004 – RAHS
But not sufficient…
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10. singapore’s response
public sector foresight stakeholders
Public sector leaders &
Senior decision makers
What is the value
of “foresight
Middle-management work” to them?
Policy makers
Where is the gap?
Foresight-related units
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11. singapore public sector
15 Ministries headed by Permanent Secretaries
PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE
MINISTRY OF LAW MINISTRY OF FINANCE
PUBLIC SERVICE DIVISION
SECURITY ECONOMIC SOCIAL
Ministry of Defence Ministry of Trade & Industry Ministry of Education
Ministry of Community,
Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Ministry of Transport Youth and Sports
Ministry of Home Affairs Ministry of the Environment Ministry of Health
and Water Resources
Ministry of Information,
Ministry of National Communications and the Arts
Development
Ministry of Manpower
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12. singapore public sector
distributed foresight network
Broad-based
National Security Coordination Secretariat Strategic Policy Office
(Horizon scanning capabilities) (National scenarios & risk management)
Central
Centre for Strategic Futures
(National foresight capabilities & ‘consultancy’)
Ministry of Trade and Industry Futures Group Economic Development Board
(Trends and economic implications) (New economic clusters/ industries)
Infocomm Development Authority Urban Redevelopment Authority
Niche topics
Distributed
(ICT trends and implications) (Long term land use planning)
Ministry of Finance Agri-Food & Veterinary Authority
(Budget and social compact issues) (Agri-food and related safety issues)
Ministry of Defence Ministry of Community, Youth & Sports
(Security and military issues) (Social issues)
*non-exhaustive listing

13. singapore public sector
developing & deepening capability
Defining Focus
Environmental
Monitoring
Scanning
Centre for Strategic Futures
Scenario
Planning
Designing
Strategies Plus Sense Making
Developing
Possible Futures

14. economic planning
VUCA environment
volatile  uncertain  complex  ambiguous
• Economic uncertainty and volatility
- Small size of Singapore’s economy and outward
orientation
- Susceptible to volatility in the external
economic environment
• Thinking ahead:
- e.g. analyzing potential effects of Greece
sovereign debt crisis and implications for global
financial system and trade with the EU
• Dynamic & nimble planning and response:
- e.g. Responding to global economic recession
in 2008 with Special Risk –sharing Initiative
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15. economic planning
multi-agency coordination
PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE
MINISTRY OF LAW MINISTRY OF FINANCE
PUBLIC SERVICE DIVISION
SECURITY ECONOMIC SOCIAL
Ministry of Defence Ministry of Trade & Industry Ministry of Education
MTI sets broad Affairs
Ministry of Foreign
Ministry of Community,
Ministry of Transport Youth and Sports
economic direction and
policy guidelines
Ministry of Home Affairs Ministry of the Environment Ministry of Health
and Water Resources
Ministry of Information,
Ministry of National Communications and the Arts
Development
Ministry of Manpower
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16. economic planning
the process
National Level Agency Level National Level
Economic Economic
Agency
Agency
National MTI
Scenarios Economic Inter-agency
Agency Committees
Emerging
Strategic
Issues National
Economic Risk Strategic Economic
Register Priorities Committees
WOG-IRM Public + Private + People
Strategy Strategy
Strategic Analysis Formulation Implementation and
“Analyse trends, identify “Brainstorming and coming Review
risks and opportunities” up with strategies and “Directing resources towards
responses” implementation”
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17. economic planning
within MTI
Strategy Strategy
Strategic Analysis Formulation Implementation and
“Analyse trends, identify “Brainstorming and Review
risks and opportunities” coming up with strategies “Directing resources
and responses” towards implementation”
• Futures Thinking • Long term planning • Budget and Resource
• Horizon Scan (national review) Allocation
• Competitiveness • Corporate retreats • Capability Development
Analysis (medium- to short-term • Translation of strategy &
• Monitoring & planning) communication
Performance Dashboard
• Risk Management and
Assessment Framework

18. Foresight at MTI
FG-animates: Foresight @ MTI (2011)
http://youtu.be/7kf3drHrozk 18

19. FUTURES GROUP
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20. futures group
our genesis
?
Futures Group started in May 2006
“It is proposed that a unit be set up to strategise on MTI-
family wide direction and look at future big ideas... … The
unit would focus on big ideas with concrete feasibility and
!
economic impact…”
- MTI Leadership Nov 2005
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21. futures group
our mission
?
We are the idea generators,
competency developers,
and network builders
!
to shape the
Singapore economy of the future
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22. futures group
medium – to –long-term
Systematically identify
opportunities
Output
• Idea Generator • Policy inputs
• Competency • Development of
• Content
Developer new programs and
• Competencies initiatives
• Network Builder
• Connections
Strategy
Roles
Formulation
Roles translate into three output areas that then contribute to the
wider strategy formulation process.

23. futures group
examples of our work
Content Competencies
?
! Future of Future of Emerging Future Structure of
“BERGS” Global Demand Trade Strategic Issues Singapore Economy
Connections
FG Website Videos Publication Manga
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24. futures group
our BERGS research
Free Electric
Economy India Vehicles Future
Jugaad of Data
Arctic
Innovatn
Ocean Ice Melt
Virtual Space Economy
Geo-
Economies
Business Disrupted Engineering enginee
ring
New business models that disrupt Revolution Rise of the
economic value chains on a large scale New technologies that disrupt
networks of consumption, production Ecosystem
and decision-making New environmental developments
No Frills Urban
Mobility and climate change issues that disrupt
Cities & business configurations
Talent Disaster
Future Agribusi
Mgmt
of Mfg ness
Future of
Asian Food
enterprises Asia Soft
Future power
of Youth
Global
Demand
Augmented
Global Re-balancing Social is back Humans
Future New power shifts amongst major
New demographics and societal
states and cities that disrupt the
of dynamics that disrupt governance and
global playing field
trading Mekong economic planning
regimes Region
& Social
ASEAN Enterprise Little
The
New Silk Economy
Railroad 24

25. EXAMPLES
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26. educating on weak signals
geo-engineering
Climate hacking manga
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27. sharing narratives
the great reset
The Great Reset video (2008)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80JRHoOcPHU

28. feeding into policy
big data economy
LIVE Singapore! Exhibition (2011)
http://senseable.mit.edu/livesingapore
http://youtu.be/2aEPkyOBtRo

29. sensitizing to new trends
new silk railroad
New Silk Railroad Video (2010)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLrmUTDJan8

30. sensitizing to new trends
people’s republic of change
People’s Republic of Change Video (2009)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKJ5x68N5jw

31. Thank you
Contact us:
Futures Group
Lee_Chor_Pharn@mti.gov.sg chorpharn@gmail.com
http://futures-group.net
http://www.scribd.com/doc/65384905/Imagining-the-New-Normal
Topics presented are on-going research and do not represent official policy statements or directions.
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