This presentation was made on February 18, 2009 to a conference on Aging, held in Savannah, Georgia, and aimed at the community of people in Coastal Georgia concerned with the issue. The material drew from an earlier conference on Aging held in Atlanta, which you can see at www.slideshare/ghiemstra/slideshows or in Favorites at Futuristspeaker. Follow Glen at www.futurist.com/blog and at www.twitter.com/glenhiemstra

1. ©

2. Learning from from the Future
Discontinuous Change

The Aging Story

Japan as Bellweather

Key Challenges

Livable Communities

Long term Care

Economic & Fiscal Issues

Social Security and the

Safety Net
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3. What Is Your Image Of
The Future?
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4. Of all the 65 year olds
who ever lived,
2/3
are alive today
A Discontinuous Change
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5. Age Wave In Action
MALE FEMALE
681 Days until the first Boomer turns 65
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6. Life Expectancy at Birth in the United States
Years
Men Women
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7. Over 65 in Georgia
8th fastest growing right now
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8. Young & Old in Georgia
Percent 19
and under
#19 in U.S.
Percent 65
and over
#42 in U.S.
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9. 27 Florida’s by 2025
States where at least 20% of
The population will be elderly
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10. Generations 2025
Post
Generation X
Millennial …
…now 45-60
now 1-19
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11. Tomorrow’s Aged are Different
Chronic conditions

 Educated & tech savvy
 Greater gaps in wealth
 Achievement oriented & adventurous
 Men moving inward, women moving
outward
 Women travel alone or without husband,
reverse not true
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12. Estimated Health Status
Elderly in Georgia
Year Total Pop. Require Cost per
IADL person
Assistance
2005 852,000 60,833 $10,983
2025 1,668,000 119,095 $58,732
Source: “Georgia’s Aging Population,” a report to the Healthcare Georgia Foundation. http://gbpi.org/pubs/
specialreport/20051005.pdf
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14. Mathews & Turnbull 2007
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15. Working…
In 1950 half of 70-

year old men
worked full time.
 Today in Atlanta
region 67% of
people over 55 are
not working at all.
ARC 2006 Survey report
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16. Time Online, 7-29.2002
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17. ©
Grand Circle Travel photo

18. Traveling…
Right now, 88% of 55

and older persons drive
their own cars
20% of those over 65

not longer drive in U.S.
57 % expect “to be

driven” in the future
13% expect to use

transit
ARC 2006 Survey report
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19. Living…
As in rest of country

about 75% of
seniors plan to live
in their current home
“as long as
possible.”
ARC 2006 Survey report
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20. We Are Not Alone
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21. Age Wave In Japan
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22. Japan’s Population Pyramid
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23. Japan’s Elder Care
 87% cared for in Family
43% daughters or daughters-in-law

 7% sons or sons-in-law
 37% spouses
 13% have hired caretakers, other
kinds of help, or no caretaker.
Source: Japanese Women Now
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24. Japan’s Social Expenditures
1970s, social expenditures 6% of

Japan’s national income.
 1992 up to18%.
 2025 predicted 27%
70% of the social-welfare budget goes

to programs for the aged
 4% for services to children
Sources: Statistical Handbook of Japan and AsiaTimes Online
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25. Japan’s Economic Solutions
Employers are keeping the elderly

working longer
Modify jobs to suit the elderly (e.g. more

lighting, fewer physical barriers)
Utilize their knowledge and skills

Companies are creating products for the

elderly
Accessible cars

Care-bots

Families are expected to provide care

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26. What Age Wave Means Here
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27. ©

28. 1950 Average New Home
980 square feet for 3.4 people
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29. Today’s Average New Home
2600 square feet for 2.6 people
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30. 5,000 Sq. Ft. Homes
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31. Ultimate Age Wave Question…
 Increasingly, 65-somethings will be
facing large homes with dark
bedrooms, lots of yard work, and a
rusting basketball hoop over the
garage. How many graying boomers
will actually live in those 5000sf
McMansions? Will you? But who
else can afford them?
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32. Need to Age the Home
1st Floor Master
 Rocker switches

Dual Suites Lower, even adjustable
 
counters
Wide hall ways

Ramps, slopes  Decrease size &

Contrasting Steps

cost by one-half
Multi-family

going forward
Apartments added

from 2009 – but
Co-housing

how?
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33. Infrastructure Needs
Sign and document readability

 Public transportation / walkability
 Retrofitting homes for better
accessibility
 Re-zoning
 Small home options
 Complete communities
Source: Duluth Weekly, September 10, 2007
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34. Long Term Care
Programs for in-home care

Georgia among lowest in nation for Medicaid

spent on in-home care
40% of Georgia’s elderly live in rural areas

Compare to 5% in Massachusetts, 12% in

Colorado
Most of Georgia’s long-term care services

are in urban areas
Source: Stateline.org, September 14, 2007
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35. Aging and Mental Health
In Georgia, the elderly account for 20% of all

suicides, especially among white males
Less than 3% of elderly receive treatment

from mental health professionals
Depression may be linked to other chronic

conditions like cancer, Alzheimer’s disease,
arthritis, obesity, and heart disease.
Source: Georgia.gov, DHR
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36. Caregivers
4.7 potential care givers (Age 20-64) for

each person over 65 in 2005
3.0 potential caregivers for each person 65+

in 2025
Source: “Georgia’s Aging Population,” a report to the Healthcare Georgia Foundation. http://gbpi.org/pubs/
specialreport/20051005.pdf
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37. Asimo
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38. Are we ready for aged workforce?
Manpower, Inc.: 28,000 employers 25 countries:

14% have strategies to recruit older (over 50) workers

21% have strategies to retain older workers

Boston College study U.S. companies:

37% have strategies to retain older workers

9% have made detailed projections about their aging

workforce
Most older workers say 9-5, 5-day week does not

work for them
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39. Impact on Taxes & Spending
Less income

Beyond the spending wave

Tax exemptions

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40. Coming Final Debate Over
Social Security (& Health Care)
Solvent without changes till 2040 if U.S.

does not default
Safe at 75% of current benefits beyond

2040 with no changes.
Options for full benefits past 2040 include

raising retirement age, increasing tax
about 1.5%, increasing income subject to
tax, changing formulas for slower benefit
growth
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41. Learning from from the Future
Discontinuous Change

The Aging Story

Japan as Bellweather

Key Challenges

Livable Communities

Long term Care

Economic & Fiscal Issues

Social Security and the

Safety Net
©

42. Is Aging Just Beginning?
Medicine of Today and the Future
Today

Diagnostics—”pauciparameter”

Therapy--reactive

Prevention--minor role

Future

Diagnostics--multiparameter

Therapy--diagnostics-driven and personalized

Prevention--dominant role

Extend productive life span by 10-20 years over next 30 years
Dr. Leroy Hood, Inst. Systems Biology
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43. Mid-21st Century Folk Song
Happy Birthday Dear Granny

 Happy Birthday Dear Granny
 Happy One Hundred and Twenty
Birthdays, Dear Granny
 Happy Birthday To You
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