The document provides an overview of trends in the US economy as depicted in various charts and graphs. It shows that the US economy is experiencing stable GDP growth, normalization of interest rates, growth in housing and mortgage lending, stable core inflation, expanding employment, and ongoing correction in the oil industry. Various charts track metrics like GDP growth, corporate profits, interest rates, housing starts, consumer debt levels, inflation rates, and industrial production over time.

1. VISUALIZING THE TRENDS
CHARTING THE US ECONOMY

2. US Economic Situation
• Stable GDP growth
• Normalization of the short term interest rates
• Growth in housing starts and mortgage loans
• Stable core inflation
• Access to credit opening up
• Expansion of employment
• Ongoing correction in oil industry

3. -10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
US Real GDP Growth
(% Change from Quarter Ago)

4. 0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000 1947
1949
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
US Corporate Profits After Tax (Billions of USD)

5. 0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
US Target Federal Funds Rate (Percent)

6. 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000 Jan-59
Jul-60
Jan-62
Jul-63
Jan-65
Jul-66
Jan-68
Jul-69
Jan-71
Jul-72
Jan-74
Jul-75
Jan-77
Jul-78
Jan-80
Jul-81
Jan-83
Jul-84
Jan-86
Jul-87
Jan-89
Jul-90
Jan-92
Jul-93
Jan-95
Jul-96
Jan-98
Jul-99
Jan-01
Jul-02
Jan-04
Jul-05
Jan-07
Jul-08
Jan-10
Jul-11
Jan-13
Jul-14
US Housing Starts (Thousands)

7. 0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Mar-03
Jul-03
Nov-03
Mar-04
Jul-04
Nov-04
Mar-05
Jul-05
Nov-05
Mar-06
Jul-06
Nov-06
Mar-07
Jul-07
Nov-07
Mar-08
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Jul-09
Nov-09
Mar-10
Jul-10
Nov-10
Mar-11
Jul-11
Nov-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Mar-13
Jul-13
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
Nov-14
Mar-15
Auto | Mortgage | Student
Debt Outstanding ($ Billions)
US Auto Loan Debt US Mortgage Debt Student Loans

8. 0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Mar-03
Aug-03
Jan-04
Jun-04
Nov-04
Apr-05
Sep-05
Feb-06
Jul-06
Dec-06
May-07
Oct-07
Mar-08
Aug-08
Jan-09
Jun-09
Nov-09
Apr-10
Sep-10
Feb-11
Jul-11
Dec-11
May-12
Oct-12
Mar-13
Aug-13
Jan-14
Jun-14
Nov-14
Apr-15
USSTUDENTLOANSERIOUSLYDELINQUIENTBALANCES
USSTUDENTLOANDEBT(BILLIONSOFUSD) Student Loan Data
US Student Loan Debt (Billions of USD) US Student Loan Seriously Delinquent Balances (% of Student Loan Debt)

9. 0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
US Personal Saving Rate (Percent of Disposable Personal Income)

10. -4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Jan-80
Jan-81
Jan-82
Jan-83
Jan-84
Jan-85
Jan-86
Jan-87
Jan-88
Jan-89
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
US Inflation Rate (% Change from Year Ago)

11. 0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Jan-80
Jan-81
Jan-82
Jan-83
Jan-84
Jan-85
Jan-86
Jan-87
Jan-88
Jan-89
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
US Core Inflation Rate (Percent Change from Year Ago)

12. -3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
US Change in Producer Price Index (Percent Change from Year Ago)

13. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Mar-03
Aug-03
Jan-04
Jun-04
Nov-04
Apr-05
Sep-05
Feb-06
Jul-06
Dec-06
May-07
Oct-07
Mar-08
Aug-08
Jan-09
Jun-09
Nov-09
Apr-10
Sep-10
Feb-11
Jul-11
Dec-11
May-12
Oct-12
Mar-13
Aug-13
Jan-14
Jun-14
Nov-14
Apr-15
USCREDITACCOUNTSOPENED(MILLIONS)
USCREDITCARDDEBT($BILLIONS) Credit Card Data
US Credit Card Debt (Billions of USD) US Credit Accounts Opened (Millions)

14. 0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
US Continuing Jobless Claims
US Continuing Jobless Claims

15. 0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0% Dec-00
May-01
Oct-01
Mar-02
Aug-02
Jan-03
Jun-03
Nov-03
Apr-04
Sep-04
Feb-05
Jul-05
Dec-05
May-06
Oct-06
Mar-07
Aug-07
Jan-08
Jun-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Dec-10
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Jun-13
Nov-13
Apr-14
Sep-14
Feb-15
Jul-15
US Hires Rate: Total Nonfarm (Percent of Total Employment)

16. 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000 12/2000
5/2001
10/2001
3/2002
8/2002
1/2003
6/2003
11/2003
4/2004
9/2004
2/2005
7/2005
12/2005
5/2006
10/2006
3/2007
8/2007
1/2008
6/2008
11/2008
4/2009
9/2009
2/2010
7/2010
12/2010
5/2011
10/2011
3/2012
8/2012
1/2013
6/2013
11/2013
4/2014
9/2014
2/2015
7/2015
US Job Openings: Total Nonfarm (Thousands)

17. -1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
4/1/2001
1/1/2002
10/1/2002
7/1/2003
4/1/2004
1/1/2005
10/1/2005
7/1/2006
4/1/2007
1/1/2008
10/1/2008
7/1/2009
4/1/2010
1/1/2011
10/1/2011
7/1/2012
4/1/2013
1/1/2014
10/1/2014
7/1/2015
ADP Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Thousands)

18. 0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
1939
1941
1943
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
US Total Nonfarm Payrolls (Thousands)

19. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120 1967
1968
1969
1970
1972
1973
1974
1975
1977
1978
1979
1980
1982
1983
1984
1985
1987
1988
1989
1990
1992
1993
1994
1995
1997
1998
1999
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
US Industrial Production: Non-energy, Total (Index 2007=100)

20. 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30% Mar-47
Sep-49
Mar-52
Sep-54
Mar-57
Sep-59
Mar-62
Sep-64
Mar-67
Sep-69
Mar-72
Sep-74
Mar-77
Sep-79
Mar-82
Sep-84
Mar-87
Sep-89
Mar-92
Sep-94
Mar-97
Sep-99
Mar-02
Sep-04
Mar-07
Sep-09
Mar-12
Sep-14
Federal Government Spending vs. Revenue (% of GDP)
US Federal Government Spending (Percent of GDP) US Federal Government Revenue (Percent of GDP)

21. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2014
2015
US Industrial Production: Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction
(Index 2007=100)

22. -80,000
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1 Year Rolling US Crude Oil Stocks Change (Thousands of Barrels)

23. $0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160 May-87
Feb-88
Nov-88
Aug-89
May-90
Feb-91
Nov-91
Aug-92
May-93
Feb-94
Nov-94
Aug-95
May-96
Feb-97
Nov-97
Aug-98
May-99
Feb-00
Nov-00
Aug-01
May-02
Feb-03
Nov-03
Aug-04
May-05
Feb-06
Nov-06
Aug-07
May-08
Feb-09
Nov-09
Aug-10
May-11
Feb-12
Nov-12
Aug-13
May-14
Feb-15
Nov-15
Brent Crude Oil Spot Price (USD per Barrel)

24. 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500 May-87
Feb-88
Nov-88
Aug-89
May-90
Feb-91
Nov-91
Aug-92
May-93
Feb-94
Nov-94
Aug-95
May-96
Feb-97
Nov-97
Aug-98
May-99
Feb-00
Nov-00
Aug-01
May-02
Feb-03
Nov-03
Aug-04
May-05
Feb-06
Nov-06
Aug-07
May-08
Feb-09
Nov-09
Aug-10
May-11
Feb-12
Nov-12
Aug-13
May-14
Feb-15
Nov-15
World Operating Rotary Rigs

25. 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500 May-87
Feb-88
Nov-88
Aug-89
May-90
Feb-91
Nov-91
Aug-92
May-93
Feb-94
Nov-94
Aug-95
May-96
Feb-97
Nov-97
Aug-98
May-99
Feb-00
Nov-00
Aug-01
May-02
Feb-03
Nov-03
Aug-04
May-05
Feb-06
Nov-06
Aug-07
May-08
Feb-09
Nov-09
Aug-10
May-11
Feb-12
Nov-12
Aug-13
May-14
Feb-15
Nov-15
US Rotary Rigs (1987-2015)

26. 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000 1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
US Rotary Rigs (1968 – 2015)

27. Next Readings
• How we can help you?
• Estate planning basics

28. Data Sources
• BLS | DOL | EIA | CPI | Census Bureau
• Institute for Supply Management
• Bureau of Economic Analysis
• Federal Reserve
• ADP Employment Report
• Ycharts.com
• Bloomberg
+ Additional resources not mentioned here – available per request

29. IMPORTANT RELATED DISCLOSURE
This presentation is neither advice nor a recommendation to enter into any
transaction nor an offer to buy or sell, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or
sell anything. This presentation may contain information that includes or is
based upon forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements
are based on the current beliefs, expectations, and assumptions of the
authors with respect to future events and are subject to a number of
significant risks and uncertainties. Actual future results and events may differ
materially. Derastone does not undertake any obligation to update forward-
looking statements to reflect changed assumptions and facts over tie. The
past performance described in this presentation is not necessarily indicative
of future results. Commodity interest trading involves substantial risk of loss.
Individual performance may very based on the timing of an investments.