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Income vs Tax Rates using
        IRS Data
        Gaetan Lion
       October 4, 2011

                         1
Let’s Tax the Rich

• This has become a favorite mantra in the current
  political climate.
• Even the Rich (one anyway) want to tax the Rich
  more (Warren Buffet wanting to be taxed at a
  higher rate than his secretary).
• It is true the Rich benefit from two major
  advantages: 1) their investment income is taxed
  at lower capital gains rate; 2) they exploit tax
  deductions the rest of us can’t (accelerated
  depreciation on real estate, etc…).
                                           2
Perceptions…
• The Rich are taxed at a lower tax rate than the
  middle class (their secretaries, etc…). This
  would not be surprising given lower capital gains
  tax rates vs ordinary income tax rates.
• The Rich do not pay their fair share.

  Now, let’s examine the actual data (IRS) to
  confirm whether those perceptions are based in
  reality…

                                            3
Average Tax Rates




              Source: IRS




As shown, the Rich tax rate is actually far higher than the one for the
rest of us (bottom 90%). Average tax rate is simply: taxes paid
divided by income. This is the most accurate representation of 4
taxation.
Tax Rate: Top 1% vs Bottom 90%




           Source: IRS




The multiple of the tax rate on the top 1% vs the bottom 90% has ranged
from 2.5 to 3.5 times. It is currently (as of 2008) near the very top of that
range.                                                           5
Income Tax Share by Income Percentile




             Source: IRS




While the top 5% contributed about the same share of taxes as the bottom
90% in the late 80s (both around 45%); now the top 5% contribute twice as
much as the bottom 90% (60% vs 30%). Similarly, over the same period the
share of the top 1% was far lower than for the bottom 90% in the early 80s;
now it is far higher.                                                6
Perceptions revisited
• The Rich are paid at a lower tax rate than
  the middle class (their secretaries, etc…).
  That’s wrong.
• The Rich do not pay their fair share.
  That’s wrong too.




                                        7
But the Rich make a lot more money now




                                           Source: IRS




… That’s true as their share of Income has risen relative to the bottom
90%. This trend results from several causal factors: globalization,
technology, deregulation, weakening of labor unions, manufacturing off
shoring, etc… Thus, this is not just a tax related phenomenon.        8
However Taxes are still very Progressive
                                                                The Rich all
                                                                experience a high
                                                                multiple of Share of
                                                                Taxes paid divided by
                                                                Share of Income.
                                                                That multiple has
                                                                been volatile and
                                                                sensitive to Bubbles
                                                                and crises in real
                                                                estate and stocks.
                                                                But, the long term
                                                                trend is flat.
  Source: IRS                                                   Meanwhile, the trend
                                                                for the bottom 90% is
                                                                steadily downward
                                                                from 0.70 in 1986 to
                                                                0.55 in 2008.
 The combination of the above trends confirm that taxation has remained
 very progressive. In other words, the Rich share of taxes has remained
 far higher than their share of income. Meanwhile, for the not so rich their
 share of taxes has steadily declined relative to their share of income. 9
The Real Issues…
• It is not Tax the Rich. It is more like tax
  everybody including the Rich.
• The US is currently running a Budget
  Deficit equal to 9% of GDP. With
  upcoming fiscal pressures of rising Social
  entitlement costs (Social Security &
  Medicare) raising taxes for everyone (not
  just the rich) appears inevitable.
• Reducing spending is another imperative.

                                        10

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Income vs tax rates

  • 1. Income vs Tax Rates using IRS Data Gaetan Lion October 4, 2011 1
  • 2. Let’s Tax the Rich • This has become a favorite mantra in the current political climate. • Even the Rich (one anyway) want to tax the Rich more (Warren Buffet wanting to be taxed at a higher rate than his secretary). • It is true the Rich benefit from two major advantages: 1) their investment income is taxed at lower capital gains rate; 2) they exploit tax deductions the rest of us can’t (accelerated depreciation on real estate, etc…). 2
  • 3. Perceptions… • The Rich are taxed at a lower tax rate than the middle class (their secretaries, etc…). This would not be surprising given lower capital gains tax rates vs ordinary income tax rates. • The Rich do not pay their fair share. Now, let’s examine the actual data (IRS) to confirm whether those perceptions are based in reality… 3
  • 4. Average Tax Rates Source: IRS As shown, the Rich tax rate is actually far higher than the one for the rest of us (bottom 90%). Average tax rate is simply: taxes paid divided by income. This is the most accurate representation of 4 taxation.
  • 5. Tax Rate: Top 1% vs Bottom 90% Source: IRS The multiple of the tax rate on the top 1% vs the bottom 90% has ranged from 2.5 to 3.5 times. It is currently (as of 2008) near the very top of that range. 5
  • 6. Income Tax Share by Income Percentile Source: IRS While the top 5% contributed about the same share of taxes as the bottom 90% in the late 80s (both around 45%); now the top 5% contribute twice as much as the bottom 90% (60% vs 30%). Similarly, over the same period the share of the top 1% was far lower than for the bottom 90% in the early 80s; now it is far higher. 6
  • 7. Perceptions revisited • The Rich are paid at a lower tax rate than the middle class (their secretaries, etc…). That’s wrong. • The Rich do not pay their fair share. That’s wrong too. 7
  • 8. But the Rich make a lot more money now Source: IRS … That’s true as their share of Income has risen relative to the bottom 90%. This trend results from several causal factors: globalization, technology, deregulation, weakening of labor unions, manufacturing off shoring, etc… Thus, this is not just a tax related phenomenon. 8
  • 9. However Taxes are still very Progressive The Rich all experience a high multiple of Share of Taxes paid divided by Share of Income. That multiple has been volatile and sensitive to Bubbles and crises in real estate and stocks. But, the long term trend is flat. Source: IRS Meanwhile, the trend for the bottom 90% is steadily downward from 0.70 in 1986 to 0.55 in 2008. The combination of the above trends confirm that taxation has remained very progressive. In other words, the Rich share of taxes has remained far higher than their share of income. Meanwhile, for the not so rich their share of taxes has steadily declined relative to their share of income. 9
  • 10. The Real Issues… • It is not Tax the Rich. It is more like tax everybody including the Rich. • The US is currently running a Budget Deficit equal to 9% of GDP. With upcoming fiscal pressures of rising Social entitlement costs (Social Security & Medicare) raising taxes for everyone (not just the rich) appears inevitable. • Reducing spending is another imperative. 10

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