1. Is China a Paper Tiger?

2. What Everyone Thinks They Know
• NPR (8/19/2010): This week, China inched
ahead of Japan, becoming the world's second
largest economy. It still lags behind the U.S., but
probably not for long. Economists estimate that
China will be the largest economy on Earth in
perhaps as little as 20 years. Today, our Planet
Money team asks: What will it be like for the
U.S. to be number two?

3. What Everyone Thinks They Know
• Agence France Press (7/8/2010): China's economy
will overtake that of the United States by 2035 and
be twice its size by midcentury, a study released
Tuesday by a US research organization concluded.
The report by economist Albert Keidel of the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said
China's rapid growth is driven by domestic demand
more than exports, and will sustain high single-digit
growth rates well into the 21st century.
• "China's economic performance clearly is no flash in
the pan," Keidel writes.

4. What Everyone Thinks They Know
• New York Times (01/12/10): And here is the other thing to keep in mind. Think about all
the hype, all the words, that have been written about China’s economic development since
1979. It’s a lot, right? What if I told you this: “It may be that we haven’t seen anything yet.”
• Why do I say that? All the long-term investments that China has made over the last two
decades are just blossoming and could really propel the Chinese economy into the 21st-
century knowledge age, starting with its massive investment in infrastructure. Ten years
ago, China had a lot bridges and roads to nowhere. Well, many of them are now connected.
It is also on a crash program of building subways in major cities and high-speed trains to
interconnect them. China also now has 400 million Internet users, and 200 million of them
have broadband. Check into a motel in any major city and you’ll have broadband access.
America has about 80 million broadband users.
• Now take all this infrastructure and mix it together with 27 million students in technical
colleges and universities — the most in the world. With just the normal distribution of
brains, that’s going to bring a lot of brainpower to the market, or, as Bill Gates once said to
me: “In China, when you’re one-in-a-million, there are 1,300 other people just like you.”

5. What Everyone Thinks They Know
• China has destroyed American manufacturing
and will continue to enjoy the fruits of cheap
labor with permanent trade surpluses
• The Chinese citizenry boasts an enormous
personal savings rate which can be tapped to
transform China into a consumption economy
• China has massive foreign currency reserves
which will allow them the ability to weather an
economic hiccup

6. What Everyone Thinks They Know
• The Chinese GDP growth rate, which has
averaged three times that of the US over the past
30 years, will continue at a torrid pace
• The Yuan is massively undervalued
• China is the cornerstone of the new emerging
market world order, dubbed the BRIC by
Goldman Sachs’s Jim O’Neill

7. A Bipartisan Belief
• Reuters (11/17/10): The United States should use all
available tools, including labeling China a currency
manipulator, to put pressure on Beijing to raise the
value of its yuan, a U.S. watchdog panel said on
Wednesday.
• "China's deliberately undervalued (yuan) has
unfairly conferred substantial economic advantages
on China to the detriment of major trading
partners, principally the United States and Europe,"
the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review
Commission said in an annual report.

8. A Bipartisan Belief
• Rueters (3/12/10): Senator Charles Schumer said on
Friday he plans to move forward soon on legislation
aimed at stopping China from "manipulating" its
currency.
• "Now more than ever, there is a consensus to finally
confront China's currency manipulation," the New
York Democrat said in a statement.
• "It is the single biggest step we can take to promote
U.S. job creation, particularly in the manufacturing
sector. We plan to move forward with revamped
legislation on this issue in the coming days," he said.

9. A Bipartisan Belief

10. What If The Consensus Is Wrong?
• The 2000s represent fake growth for the Chinese
• They funded our misbegotten adventure into
subprime mortgages by holding massive
amounts of Agency debt, the lifeblood of Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac
• This led to a boom in prices and home equity
which encouraged consumption of consumer
goods, including a lot which came from
China, above our means

11. What If The Consensus Is Wrong?
• When Agency debt became worthless and Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac plunged into conservatorship
the Chinese rushed from Agency debt, exchanging it
for US Treasuries
• This is just shuffling paper though. On December
24, 2009, the Treasury uncapped its support for
Fannie and Freddie
• The taxpayers, and our bondholders, are now on the
hook for potentially unlimited losses at the GSEs
• Agency debt is treasury debt as long as Congress
refuses to act to resolve the problems at the GSEs

12. What If The Consensus Is Wrong?
• It is official Chinese policy to reinflate the US
bubble, much like our own Federal Reserve
• These policies are failing as home prices continue to
fall and real estate activity remain at or near record
lows
• Unemployment remains near postwar highs
• Record numbers of Americans are on food stamps
• When you need assistance for necessities, how much
spending do you have for discretionary items?
• Trade, read Chinese exports, remain well below
2007 levels

13. What If The Consensus Is Wrong?
• Daily Mail (12/23/10): “China has said it is willing to
bail out debt-ridden countries in the euro zone using its
$2.7trillion overseas investment fund.
• In a fresh humiliation for Europe, Foreign Ministry
spokesman Jiang Yu said it was one of the most
important areas for China's foreign exchange
investments.
• The country has already approached struggling
European countries with financial aid, including offering
to buy Greece's debt in October and promising to buy
$4billion of Portuguese government debt.”
• The solution for Europe, drowning in debt is more
debt, to give the junkie a greater fix

14. What If The Consensus Is Wrong?
• Chinese GDP growth is drastically overestimated.
• From everybody’s favorite, Wikileaks:
▫ 4. (C) GDP figures are “man-made” and therefore
unreliable, Li said. When evaluating Liaoning’s
economy, he focuses on three figures: 1) electricity
consumption, which was up 10 percent in Liaoning last
year; 2) volume of rail cargo, which is fairly accurate
because fees are charged for each unit of weight; and
3) amount of loans disbursed, which also tends to be
accurate given the interest fees charged. By looking at
these three figures, Li said he can measure with
relative accuracy the speed of economic growth. All
other figures, especially GDP statistics, are “for
reference only,” he said smiling.

15. Gross Domestic Parody
• Chinese GDP is computed based on recorded
production activity
▫ Comparatively US GDP is based on end user
consumption
▫ We know the formula as C+I+G+(X-M)
• Activity is much easier to manipulate than
consumption
• This affects data in many ways

16. Gross Domestic Parody
• We have no way of knowing how many goods
produced are actually sold
• Burgeoning inventories are considered economic
expansion using Chinese data methods
• China is a centrally planned economy with a
central political body deciding on how much
funding will be provided in any given year

17. Gross Domestic Parody
• The Central Party forces loans onto the state and
local party leaders
• In terms of GDP calculations, “growth” is
recorded when the funds are disbursed not when
new infrastructure projects have actually begun
• As I’m sure is becoming obvious, the Central
Communist regime can make Chinese growth
estimates a certainty through monetary policy

18. Gross Domestic Parody
• In a global economy marred by a steep financial
panic and a tepid recovery export driven growth has
not been the driver of the Chinese economy in the
past 24 months
• Chinese growth has come solely through a massive
expansion of credit
• In 2009 and 2010 new bank lending was
approximately 7.5 trillion Renminbi (over $1.1
trillion)
• These figures are drastically higher than pre-
Lehman numbers (really double anything we had
seen previously)

19. Lots of New Loans
• The question is how many of these loans are
good loans and the answer is very few
• China’s two largest customers are the European
Union and the United States
▫ Europe is currently struggling to weather a
sovereign debt crisis that could explode within
months if Italy and Spain are forced to seek
protection from the bond market (with Greece and
Ireland already fallen and Portugal on the way this
is a distinct possibility

20. Lots of New Loans
• United States economists are actively slashing
growth forecasts for 2011
▫ The Federal Reserve now expects growth next year
of 3% to 3.6%
▫ That is down from an initial forecast of 3.5% to
4.2%
▫ Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey expects
growth of just 2.5% for 2011
• When Chinese stimulus loans were made we
were supposed to be in a rapid recovery by now
(the much heralded V shaped recovery)

21. Life Under The Jack Boot
• Will these loans be repaid?
• First, lets look at how political, rather than
market, economies create inefficiencies
• In Soviet Russia, padding of official numbers
was referred to as tukhta (or tufta depending on
who you are talking to)
▫ This concept is explained in depth by Solzhenitsyn
in the Gulag Archipelago

22. Life Under The Jack Boot
• Five Year Plans were completed only on paper
• Roofs were redone at a fraction of what was
expected and material was so scarce that those
which were redone had material which was
stretched beyond measure
• The “roof” had noticeable holes which exposed
the rest of the building to the harsh Russian
weather

23. Life Under The Jack Boot
• Labor camps and canals always came in ahead of
schedule, usually omitting large planning periods
that were not officially included in the building
schedule
• Resources were allocated on political whims rather
than by necessity
• Theives and those of general dishonor were treated
better and their behavior excused while the
honorable and productive were forced to the bottom
of the social structure

24. Life Under The Jack Boot
• Law became an arbitrary concept
• Cases were decided before trial
▫ You were not tried by your peers but by your
superiors
▫ Evidence did not matter
▫ Many defendants admitted guilt in court even
though they had committed no such offense
▫ They were sentenced to the hells of the Gulag or
the firing squad for their loyalty

25. Life Under The Jack Boot
• Since Tianneman, the Chinese government has
maintained the traditions of Mao, dressed up
elaborately in capitalist garb
• Make no mistake, the hidden Gulag Archipelago
remains
• The “Black Marias” continue, every day and
every night, to disappear those inconvenient to
the State
• The wreckers, “freedom men”

26. Life Under The Jack Boot
• My name is Geng He (耿和) and I am the wife of political
prisoner and lawyer Gao Zhisheng (高智晟), who is currently
being persecuted in mainland China. On March 11 this year, I
arrived in the United States with my son and daughter for
political asylum. I write this letter to you in order
to, first, express my gratitude towards the American
government. At a time when our family was in danger, the
American government’s humanitarian aid enabled my
children and me to escape from brutal persecution. We are
safe now, but my husband’s situation has become more
perilous. Therefore, I entreat you to go a step further in
helping our family by putting an end to the Chinese
government’s persecution of my husband, lawyer Gao
Zhisheng.

27. Life Under The Jack Boot
• My husband is an honest lawyer. Due to his professional capabilities our
family once had a good income and living standard. When my husband
began taking part in rights defense cases in 2003, he clashed frequently
with the corrupt and criminalized elements of the Chinese government at all
levels. In 2004, he investigated and exposed the government’s actions
against Falun Gong followers in the biggest political persecution case in
mainland China and wrote letters to Chinese leaders three times requesting
them to stop their attacks on Falun Gong. Though his actions did not violate
China’s laws, but rather, upheld them, he was still continuously threatened
by the government at all levels and his lawyer’s license was revoked. The
problems he personally encountered made him realize that, without
changing the political system of China, there would be no way to lawfully
ensure the safety, interests, and dignity of citizens. Therefore, time and
again, within the framework allowed by the Chinese Constitution and the
law, he initiated peaceful citizen demonstrations and petitions to expose
and protest the problems of corruption in government and tyrannical rule.

28. Life Under The Jack Boot
• My husband’s righteous actions drew continuous
and escalating abuse by the Chinese government. On
August 15, 2006, they kidnapped my husband and
formally arrested him on September 21. During this
period, the authorities tormented him in all sorts of
ways and even kidnapped, harassed, and tormented
our children and me in order to break his will. On
December 21, 2006, after having deprived my
husband of the right to retain defense counsel, the
authorities convicted and sentenced him.

29. Life Under The Jack Boot
• Soon afterwards, my husband revealed these problems to the
international community. The authorities were infuriated. They
kidnapped and tormented him many times. On the night of
September 21, 2007, my husband, with a black hood thrown over his
head, was kidnapped and brought to an unknown location. For 59
days, many people tortured and ravaged him in all kinds of
ways, including beating him with an electric prod, inserting bamboo
sticks into his reproductive organs, holding lit cigarettes close to his
eyes and nose, etc., so that his eyes would burn and he would be
forced to inhale smoke. My husband told me later that he was in
such unbearable pain at the time that his sweat, blood, and other
bodily fluids covered the floor. Among the reasons the authorities
gave for tormenting my husband was that he had written to the
United States Congress.

30. Life Under The Jack Boot
• Because we could no longer endure the Chinese
government’s thuggish and barbaric harassment and
persecution, on January 9, 2009, I took my children
on the treacherous journey of escaping China. On
February 4, my husband disappeared again from his
hometown in Shaanxi and has not been heard from
since. I have no doubt that this kidnapping was the
Chinese government’s retaliation for our escape. In
view of his horrific experiences in the past, I’m
extremely worried about my husband’s safety.

31. Life Under The Jack Boot
• Honorable members of the U.S. Congress, as a wife I am terribly
distressed and doubt our decision to leave China. Though I had been
mentally prepared to face adversities alongside my husband, our
children, ages 16 and five, have already been unable to go to school
due to the kidnapping, intimidation, and beatings by the authorities.
My daughter even ran away from home. Our relatives and friends
are worried that she will become mentally disturbed from her fear.
If we had not left that horrific country, their whole lives would have
been ruined. However, that my husband was prepared to be
tortured for the sake of our escape is like a knife in my heart. My
children ask me every day, where’s dad? I’m alone and isolated here
and can only appeal to you to pressure the Chinese government to
stop persecuting my husband and tell the world his whereabouts
and condition.

32. Fraud
• The root evils of the system still remain
• With export growth tabled, the credit surge
mandated by China’s central party is running
into speculation and outright fraud

33. Fraud
• Muddy Waters LLC has initiated coverage on RINO
International Corp. (RINO) with a Strong Sell
rating and a $2.45 price target.
• RINO claims to be the leader in selling
desulfurization (“FGD”) and other environmental
equipment to Chinese steel mills. It reported 2009
revenue of $193 million. In reality its revenue is
under $15 million, and its management has diverted
tens of millions of dollars for its own use. We value
RINO based on the cash we believe remains
in the company after the most recent raise.

34. Fraud

35. Fraud
• Hedge fund manager John Paulson is most famous
for betting against subprime mortgages by being
long synthetically engineered CDOs.
• He hand picked mortgage pools he thought would go
bust and used investment banks to create
instruments whose payoffs mirrored those
mortgages and marketed those investments to other
banks (this made national news in the Goldman
Sachs hearings on Abacus and Timberwolf).
• The largest loss his fund has ever incurred is
happening today.

36. Fraud
• Paulson was the premier investor in Sino-Forest
• The company is a Chinese timber producer and has been
exposed as nothing but paper
• The company claimed to had purchased a sizeable
portion of land outside Lincang City in the Yunnan
Province.
• This purchase never happened, the records verified by
the city itself
• It’s profits, as reported, and audited, are impossible
because those profits are based on timber production
that isn’t happening on land it doesn’t own.
• Sino-Forest is traded on the Toronto exchange.

37. Fraud
• There are only approximately 3,000 companies
which list on the New York Stock Exchange
• The NYSE holds itself up as the premier stock
exchange in the world with rigorous listing
standards
• Less than 100 of those companies come from
Asia, with just a fraction coming from China

38. Fraud
• A fraction of one percent of the companies listed on the
NYSE are Chinese. These companies are supposed to be
the best companies in that country.
• And several of those companies (RINO, CCME, etc.)
have just been nailed as a fraudulent ponzi scheme
whose internal financials were so poor that a two man
research outfit could issue a report so damning that the
stock price has plummeted over 50% in less than a
month
• No one is even appearing to do due diligence on China
anymore
• Much like the subprime boom in the US, no one cares
until it all blows up

39. Boom Times
• “China’s November car sales hit a one-month record.
Total cars and light vehicles shipped to dealers
reached 1.34 million, up 29% from the same month
last year. Sales for the first eleven months of the year
were 12.45 million, up 35%.”
• Car sales in China have now outstripped the US for
three straight years, despite an economy that is a
fourth of the size
• Many sales are done with extravagant government
incentives
• This is similar to mid-decade US auto sales based on
0% financing and “employee pricing”

40. Hookers In Macau
• The latest report from PricewaterhouseCoopers
LLP (PwC) on Casino Gaming estimates that
revenues in Macau will grow at a compound
annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.7
percent, reaching USD 45.1 billion (MOP 360
billion) in 2014.
PwC’s outlook for the global casino market
forecasts that Asia’s and Australia’s fast-growing
gaming industries will account for nearly as
much of the world market as the United States in
four-years time.

41. Hookers in Macau
• No city in America benefitted more from the
subprime debt boom than Las Vegas, Nevada
• In fact, the largest annual convention for the
subprime industry took place in Las Vegas
• Ask Steve Eisman about casino girls who owned
5 homes and stories of tables being three deep
• Easy money goes hand in hand with gambling

42. Hookers in Macau
• Las Vegas Sands Macau revenue for Q3 of 2010:
▫ $1,097,750,000
• Compared to 2009:
▫ $850,055,000
• 30% growth YoY in revenues and a 125% growth
in net income
• Las Vegas, NV properties accounted for just
$290,600,000

43. Hookers in Macau
3Q Revenue (In Thousands)
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
$800,000
$600,000
3Q Revenue (In Thousands)
$400,000
$200,000
$0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

44. Hookers in Macau
• “Throngs swarmed the gaming hall, lining tables
two to three deep. Near riots greeted the opening
of a series of other new casinos in this gambling-
crazed city.”
• “Sands doles them out free to high-
rollers, mainly new-moneyed Chinese
driving Macau’s renaissance.”

45. Boom Times

46. Boom Times
The empty city of
Ordos during morning
rush hour. Ordos has
the second highest per
capita income in the
country, behind
Shanghai and ahead of
Beijing. Hardly anyone
lives there…

47. Boom Times
• New development projects in the interior of China
are accelerating
• The Communist government wants to crack down
on migration of youth to the cities of
Shanghai, Hong Kong and Beijing
• They must create jobs for the youth in the
backwards west
• Those jobs are in construction. Building
cities, apartments, and factories which serve no
purpose
• China must create 25 million jobs a year or risk civil
unrest, the price of totalitarianism

48. Boom Times
• According to Pivot Capital:
▫ Excess cement capacity is greater than the
combined consumption of the US, Japan and
India!
▫ Idle Chinese steel factories total more than the
total steel production of Japan and South Korea

49. Boom Times
• “One clear clue (regarding the rising real estate
prices in China) is that the average price-to-income
ratio in Beijing has reached 27:1, five times the
world average, according to data from the Bureau of
Statistics of the Beijing Municipality. In
addition, the average price-to-rent ratio neared
500:1 in the city, far above the international alarm
threshold of 300:1, which sends out a clear signal
that the foundation of the real estate boom is losing
stability.”
• Shanghai, Shenzen, Beijing, Guazhong (see slide
26)…
• Southern California, Florida, Arizona, Las Vegas…

50. Boom Times
• Massive amounts of third mortgages, given with
low interest rates and little down payments
• Sound familiar?
• To keep the bubble blowing, the government has
to continue to press hard on the gas

51. Atlas Shrugged
• Imagine standing with your arms outstretched
and a weight in each hand
• It starts out as being easy but eventually
becomes excruciatingly painful
• The hand weights now feel like stones
• Your arms burn as lactic acid builds up quickly

52. Atlas Shrugged
• Adrenaline pumps through your system
• To drop the weights, all that is necessary is for
your arms to give ground
• Once they begin to drop, only supports can stop
the free fall
• What looked like calm, stability, strength has
disappeared in an instant

53. Atlas Shrugged
• What happens on an economy wide scale?
• Assets become liabilities, factories idle, money dries
up. The boom goes bust. All that is left is the pain.
• Borrowing rates skyrocket
• The currency collapses as money flees
• In a speculative boom, the catalyst for economic
destruction is simply a drop in the growth rate
• In statistical terms, reversion to the mean
• Romans designed executions around the
crucifixition
• In short, gravity always wins

54. Currency Devaluation
• China has pegged the Yuan to the Dollar for
many years
• It attempted to placate critics by instituting a
floating rate policy recently but this new policy is
more lip service than actual substance
• Many believe that this peg has caused the Yuan
to be severely undervalued to what it would
trade at if there was a free market price allowed

55. Currency Devaluation
• Rarely has this been the case over history though
• Pegged currency, stability lull markets into a
false sense of security, causes the market to
overlook threats
• Pegged currencies tend to exhibit sharp
devaluations during crises
• This has happened recently in Asia

56. Currency Devaluation
• In 1997, the world caught Asian Flu
▫ Thailand
▫ South Korea
▫ Indonesia
▫ Malaysia
▫ Philipines
• All pegged to the US Dollar

57. Causes
• Easy money creates inflation
• CPI is officially up to 5.1%
• Property prices are up around 10% YoY, much
higher in certain areas
• Food inflation is near 7.5% YoY
• Michael Pettis has estimated CPI at over 7%

58. Causes
• Copper, cotton, silver prices are skyrocketing
• Oil is at $93 a barrel
• Costs are exploding
• This is disastrous for the Chinese people, many
still live in poverty (per capita GDP is 102nd in
the world)
• It also hurts Chinese factories;
textiles, toys, many of the factories which we
associate with China have margins of 5% or less

59. Causes
• China so far has taken only half measures to
corral these price shocks
• The required reserve ratio has been raised three
times
• This policy doesn’t even combat the effects of the
Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy let
alone counteract the effects of China’s stimulus
policies

60. Causes
• The true answer to China’s inflation woes would
be to curtail new bank lending
• This cannot happen though because it would
deprive the asset bubble fire the oxygen it needs
to keep burning
• In a country that rules over its citizens, severe
inflation would be enough to change government
policy
• Nothing scares Beijing more than an unhappy
populous

61. Causes
• Many talk about an exploding Chinese middle
class and a new consumer culture on the rise
• We hear about China carrying the world
economy going forward
• Missing from this analysis is any mention of
demographics and the effects of government
policy on the aging of the Chinese population

62. Causes
• The One Child Policy has been in force since
1978
• It is estimated that a woman is forced to have an
abortion under the law every 2.4 seconds
• That amounts to 35,000 a day
• New York City is aborted in nine months
• Overall, it is estimated that 400 million children
have been killed since the policy’s inception

63. Causes
• There are other effects besides the staggering
loss of life
• Boys are preferred over girls. Many first
children are killed if they are daughters
• This has led to a gender inbalance within
Chinese society further deteriorating the birth
rate within the country
• What does this mean for the domestic
marketplace?

64. Causes
• It will shrink drastically
• The working age population will begin to
decrease within the next few years
• China has no social security program
• The burden of caring for the elderly falls to the
children
• We are seeing a classic pyramid trap occurring

65. Causes
• Two parents care for four parents
• At any one time we can expect only two Chinese
workers to be responsible for one retired
pensioner
• That is worse than the ratio in the United States
• The fiscal responsibilities for carrying on our
entitlement programs has caused the release of
the Simpson-Bowles recommendations

66. Causes
• We are also seeing the fiscal effects that result from
demographic changes in Europe and Japan
• These countries are rightfully identified as slow
growth nations
• Big government is crashing, retirement ages are
being raised and benefits cut
• Yet the largest government is viewed as immune to
this trend?
• Why?

67. The False Comfort of Foreign Currency
Reserves
• Many cite the huge foreign currency reserves
that China possesses
• At $2.7 trillion it is approximately 100% of their
economy
• The last time countries boasted similar trade
surpluses was Japan in 1989 and the United
States in 1929, immediately preceding massive
crashes

68. The False Comfort of Foreign Currency
Reserves
• From 1929 to 1933 the Dow Jones would lose
90% of its value
• The Nikkei average today is currently around
10,500
• It was at 38,000 in 1989, a 75% decline in value
over two decades
• In real terms it is approximately 12% of its 1989
value
• Creditor nations are hurt excessively during
global slowdowns

69. In Conclusion
• Adam Smith wrote about China:
• “China has been long one of the richest, that
is, one of the most fertile, best cultivated, most
industrious, and most populous countries in the
world. It seems, however, to have been long
stationary. Marco Polo, who visited it more than
five hundred years ago, describes its
cultivation, industry and populousness, almost
in the same terms in which they are described by
travellers in the present times.

70. In Conclusion
• All travellers agree with the low wages of
labour, and in the difficulty which a labourer
finds in bringing up a family in China. If by
digging the ground a whole day he can get what
will purchase a small quantity of rice in the
evening, he is contented.
• The poverty of the lower ranks of people in
China far surpasses that of the most beggarly
nations in Europe.

71. In Conclusion
• Any carrion, the carcass of a dead dog or cat, for
example, though half putrid and stinking, is as
welcome to them as the most wholesome food to the
people of other countries
• Marriage is encouraged in China, not by the
profitableness of children, but by the liberty of
destroying them. In all great towns several are every
night exposed in the street, or drowned like puppies
in the water”
• This was written in 1776. It could easily be written
today…