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Shifting from Adoption to Utilization
  and the Rise of Mobile Internet


       Minnesota Broadband Conference
             November 14, 2012

               Jack M. Geller
The Technology Adoption Curve
Roger’s Theory of Adoption
Current Broadband Adoption Rate




Source: Pew Data -2011; Connect MN Data – 2011; CRPD Data – 2012
Note: In 2011 the PEW Internet and American Life Project changed their method of measuring broadband. In
2010 they reported a national broadband adoption rate of 66%.
So where on the curve are we today?
Are we approaching the end of
           the adoption curve?
Growth in the adoption of Internet users and broadband has been
slowing in recent years. The leaps in residential adoption rates
witnessed from 2003-2009 are now behind us.

Connect Minnesota reported that in 2011 73% of businesses
subscribed to a broadband service – the same number reported in
2010.

As we move forward increases in broadband adoption will continue,
but will be more a function of organic growth and less of function of
intervention.

The focus going forward will likely shift from adoption to helping
Minnesotans maximize their utilization of broadband.
The Rise of Mobile Internet
Do you often get any of these “signatures” at the end of an email
message?
Sent from my iPhone;
Sent from my iPad;
Sent from my Samsung Epic 4G;
Sent from my Verizon Wireless Blackberry.

Can we afford to ignore this increasing part of the Internet landscape?

• 88% of American adults have adopted cell phones, with half being
Internet-enabled.

• On September 5, 2012 the FCC announced the “Measuring Mobile
America” program to assess mobile broadband performance.
Adoption of Mobile Internet*




* Definition of Mobile Internet for CRPD and PEW is a Smartphone; Uncertain of definition for Connect Minnesota
Is Mobile Internet an Equalizer?
Percent of American Adults adopting Home Broadband




          Source: Pew Internet and American Life Project, April 2012
Is Mobile Internet an Equalizer?
 Percent of American Adults Adopting a Smartphone




          Source: Pew Internet and American Life Project, April 2012
Is Mobile Internet an Equalizer in MN?
   Percent of MN Adults Adopting Home Broadband




                  Source: Connect Minnesota, 2012
Is Mobile Internet an Equalizer in MN?
 Percent of Adult Minnesotans Adopting Mobile Internet




                    Source: Connect Minnesota, 2012
Are there Parallels with Telephony?


Over the past few years there has been a steady increase in the
percentage of residential customers who choose to not maintain
a landline and rely on solely on their mobile phone.
Will we find an increasing number of Internet customers moving
in this direction as well?
Do we have to recognize mobile Internet service as having a
significant share of the market?
Is it time to recognize mobile Internet service as broadband?
The Big Question?
Is Mobile Internet fast enough to meet the
broadband definition of the FCC and the
goals of the Minnesota Broadband Task
Force?
Average connection speeds of 4G
   LTE in 15 metro markets




        Source: Moore B. RootMetrics (2012) Gigaom.com
Feasibility and Barriers in Rural MN
• Rollout of 4G LTE is currently limited to metro markets, but the
competition between carriers will change that.
• In 2010 Verizon Wireless established their LTE in Rural America
initiative partnering with rural providers to extend and locally market
4G LTE with download speeds from 5 Mbps to 12 Mbps.
• Verizon Wireless also is marketing their “HomeFusion” product; a LTE
home broadband product marketed as a “last mile” solution for
residential customers out of range of DSL or cable providers.
•These initial efforts will certainly multiply as technology advances; all
wireless carriers rollout their LTE product; and competition continues.
Feasibility and Barriers in Rural MN

 • Price will continue to be a barrier in these areas.


 •The biggest barrier however may be the data caps
 that wireless providers currently utilize in their
 data plans, as customers that routinely download
 movies or perform other high-bandwidth functions
 may find the costs simply too high.
Two Take-Aways
• Further increases in broadband adoption will
  be limited as Minnesotans get closer to the
  end of the adoption curve. However organic
  growth will continue.
• Mobile broadband is already too diffused
  throughout the population for state and
  federal agencies to ignore; and should be
  integrated into our strategies to ensure
  ubiquitous access to broadband.

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Broadband Conference 11 14 12

  • 1. Shifting from Adoption to Utilization and the Rise of Mobile Internet Minnesota Broadband Conference November 14, 2012 Jack M. Geller
  • 4. Current Broadband Adoption Rate Source: Pew Data -2011; Connect MN Data – 2011; CRPD Data – 2012 Note: In 2011 the PEW Internet and American Life Project changed their method of measuring broadband. In 2010 they reported a national broadband adoption rate of 66%.
  • 5. So where on the curve are we today?
  • 6. Are we approaching the end of the adoption curve? Growth in the adoption of Internet users and broadband has been slowing in recent years. The leaps in residential adoption rates witnessed from 2003-2009 are now behind us. Connect Minnesota reported that in 2011 73% of businesses subscribed to a broadband service – the same number reported in 2010. As we move forward increases in broadband adoption will continue, but will be more a function of organic growth and less of function of intervention. The focus going forward will likely shift from adoption to helping Minnesotans maximize their utilization of broadband.
  • 7. The Rise of Mobile Internet Do you often get any of these “signatures” at the end of an email message? Sent from my iPhone; Sent from my iPad; Sent from my Samsung Epic 4G; Sent from my Verizon Wireless Blackberry. Can we afford to ignore this increasing part of the Internet landscape? • 88% of American adults have adopted cell phones, with half being Internet-enabled. • On September 5, 2012 the FCC announced the “Measuring Mobile America” program to assess mobile broadband performance.
  • 8. Adoption of Mobile Internet* * Definition of Mobile Internet for CRPD and PEW is a Smartphone; Uncertain of definition for Connect Minnesota
  • 9. Is Mobile Internet an Equalizer? Percent of American Adults adopting Home Broadband Source: Pew Internet and American Life Project, April 2012
  • 10. Is Mobile Internet an Equalizer? Percent of American Adults Adopting a Smartphone Source: Pew Internet and American Life Project, April 2012
  • 11. Is Mobile Internet an Equalizer in MN? Percent of MN Adults Adopting Home Broadband Source: Connect Minnesota, 2012
  • 12. Is Mobile Internet an Equalizer in MN? Percent of Adult Minnesotans Adopting Mobile Internet Source: Connect Minnesota, 2012
  • 13. Are there Parallels with Telephony? Over the past few years there has been a steady increase in the percentage of residential customers who choose to not maintain a landline and rely on solely on their mobile phone. Will we find an increasing number of Internet customers moving in this direction as well? Do we have to recognize mobile Internet service as having a significant share of the market? Is it time to recognize mobile Internet service as broadband?
  • 14. The Big Question? Is Mobile Internet fast enough to meet the broadband definition of the FCC and the goals of the Minnesota Broadband Task Force?
  • 15. Average connection speeds of 4G LTE in 15 metro markets Source: Moore B. RootMetrics (2012) Gigaom.com
  • 16. Feasibility and Barriers in Rural MN • Rollout of 4G LTE is currently limited to metro markets, but the competition between carriers will change that. • In 2010 Verizon Wireless established their LTE in Rural America initiative partnering with rural providers to extend and locally market 4G LTE with download speeds from 5 Mbps to 12 Mbps. • Verizon Wireless also is marketing their “HomeFusion” product; a LTE home broadband product marketed as a “last mile” solution for residential customers out of range of DSL or cable providers. •These initial efforts will certainly multiply as technology advances; all wireless carriers rollout their LTE product; and competition continues.
  • 17. Feasibility and Barriers in Rural MN • Price will continue to be a barrier in these areas. •The biggest barrier however may be the data caps that wireless providers currently utilize in their data plans, as customers that routinely download movies or perform other high-bandwidth functions may find the costs simply too high.
  • 18. Two Take-Aways • Further increases in broadband adoption will be limited as Minnesotans get closer to the end of the adoption curve. However organic growth will continue. • Mobile broadband is already too diffused throughout the population for state and federal agencies to ignore; and should be integrated into our strategies to ensure ubiquitous access to broadband.