Like any company Facebook continues to have new threats and opportunities at every turn. This looks at a few of these threats. Primarily the rise of the "chat app" phenomenon in the far east (700MM+ users). Will Facebook continue to respond to these threats through acquisition or copying IP or will they innovate?
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Facebook Chat App Threat
1. 4/25/2013
C O N N E C T I N G T H E D O T S
FACEBOOK
AND
CHAT APPS
addendumThursday, May 2, 13
2. A SUPPLEMENTAL TO A PREVIOUS PRESENTATION:
http://www.slideshare.net/genekeenan1/connecting-the-dots-social-mobile
Gene Keenan
Thursday, May 2, 13
3. TCF
“We believe that some of our users, particularly our younger
users, are aware of and actively engaging with other products
and services similar to, or as a substitute for, Facebook.
For example, we believe that some of our users have reduced
their engagement with Facebook in favor of increased
engagement with other products and services such as Instagram.
In the event that our users increasingly engage with other
products and services, we may experience a decline in user
engagement and our business could be harmed.”
From Facebook’s annual 10-K report filed with the
Securities and Exchange Commission in February
Thursday, May 2, 13
6. TCF
Facebook can only stay relevant for as long
as they can connect to the next generation
Thursday, May 2, 13
7. TCF
All CPG companies know this
best but the razor blade
companies invented a great
hook that pulls in the next
generation
Thursday, May 2, 13
8. TCF
The razor blade hook:
You bought the handle
that held the razors
Thursday, May 2, 13
9. TCF
Target knows this well too
which is why they figured out
how to know if a woman was
pregnant.
VALUE: Convert that user to a
lifetime customer
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/19/magazine/shopping-habits.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
Thursday, May 2, 13
16. TCF
FACEBOOK CONNECT | CONNECT TO PASSION SITES
“PASSION”
COMMUNITIES CONNECT
TO FACEBOOK TOO
Makes it easier to join
communities that focus
on individual passions.
Easier to share those
activities
Thursday, May 2, 13
18. TCF
THIS CREATES COMPETITION FOR ATTENTION:
As younger audiences that don’t adopt Facebook
the connections become even more tenuous
DECLINE ON DEPENDENCE OF FACEBOOK
Login via FB or not or use another service
Login via FB
Thursday, May 2, 13
19. TCF19
THE HARSHER REALITY:
FACEBOOK IS NOT A GOOD PLACE
FOR PASSION SPECIFICITY
+
http://www.slideshare.net/genekeenan1/connecting-the-dots-social-mobile
Thursday, May 2, 13
20. TCF20
DO YOU REALLY WANT YOUR ____
SEEING YOUR PASSION FOR ____?
DO YOU REALLY WANT TO SHARE YOUR PASSION FOR____ WITH EVERYONE?
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21. TCF
TO PROVE THE POINT:
Bang With Friends
An extreme example
of intimate passion
networks
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22. TCF
FUELED BY INDIVIDUAL
PASSIONS SHARED BY A
SELECT GROUP
“Anonymity” returns
RESULT: “ANONYMITY” RETURNS
Example: Smaller more intimate group. You can
login via FB or create a new account
Thursday, May 2, 13
23. TCF
FREE AS I WANT TO BE
NOT CONNECTED
But I could be...
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24. TCF
It’s really just this all over again...
http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_mbdugf2qN11rs9uv6.png
New Cliques
Thursday, May 2, 13
28. TCF28
'Facebook is not interesting any more'
Young people in Singapore on why they use chat apps
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21323155
Thursday, May 2, 13
29. TCF
THE COMING TIDAL WAVE
“CHAT” applications
threatening FB domain
LINE
120MM users
400k+ a day
WECHAT
300MM users
KaKaoTalk
70MM users
WhatsAPP
200MM+ users
Bigger than
Twitter
Thursday, May 2, 13
30. TCF30
MOST OF THESE APPS HAVE ONLY
BEEN AROUND FOR 24–30 MONTHS!
Thursday, May 2, 13
31. TCF
IT’S BIG
BIGGER
THAN SMS
Chat applications
are bigger than
we think.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22334338
Thursday, May 2, 13
36. TCF
only eight of the students listed Facebook as their most-used social
network. For eleven of them, it didn’t rank in the top three (Instagram
was by far the most popular). Other, more formal surveys have found
that Tumblr might actually be the teen social network of choice now. In
fact, Facebook itself even acknowledged the challenge of keeping
teens engaged in its annual 10-K report filed with the Securities and
Exchange Commission in February. In a list of the risk factors that could
affect the company’s future success, Facebook stated:
http://business.time.com/2013/03/08/is-facebook-losing-its-cool-some-teens-think-so/#ixzz2S9aPtijB
Thursday, May 2, 13
38. TCF
LOOKING FORWARD
Facebook is smart.
They understand these threats.
Watch for future acquisitions from FB if they can’t
copy their competitors.
Thursday, May 2, 13
40. TCF
Close intimate lasting
conversations
Group experiences, exciting
but not intimate
Brand X or Artist Y might be a
passion point but when that
interaction takes place in
Facebook it becomes less
authentic because it’s not
close and intimate
THEY ARE BETTER AT FIREWORKS NOT CAMP FIRES: NOT INTIMATE OR PRIVATE
Chat apps, Path, etc. FACEBOOK
Thursday, May 2, 13
41. TCF
Thanks for looking
CONTACT:
Gene Keenan
gene@thecollectivefactory.com
415-218.7369
http://www.thecollectivefactory.com
For a more in-depth look:
http://www.slideshare.net/genekeenan1/connecting-the-dots-social-mobile
Thursday, May 2, 13