1. The future of Energy
Trends, issues, ideas, scenarios
Guillaume FERY
March 2012
2. The Two sides of the debate
SUPPY DEMAND
Cost of renewable
Energy efficiency
New technologies
Social and individual behaviour
Energy prices
Acceptance (nuclear, grid)
Life of nuclear fleet
A big need for sober economy
The real cost of energy, and energy eficiency
transparancy
World standards for safety
Low carbon production
It is a global problem: there will
be no « national only » policies
3. Key Trends
Rising energy needs, worldwide
Growth in emerging countries
Predominent marketshare for fossile energy in the long term
Booming market for unconventional energsources
Saddly, still millions of people with no access to energy
4. Energy and carbon issues
Power generation is the first source of GhG
CO2 emissions by sector. Source: IEA WEO
2009
5. Energy, ressources and contrainsts
Carbon targets
Ressources International
objectives
Peak oil, etc
Camcun protocol
Carbon emissions today : 30 billions tons
Carbon tagets : 20 billions in 2035, 13 billions in 2050 !
In order to limit global warming at 2°C
International green agenda is the first lever to RENEWABLES
act and enter a low carbon revolution. Not just NUCLEAR
a question of resources. ENERGY EFFCIENCY
6. Experts (technical, financials) are key but …
new stakeholders in the energy debate
MAN IN THE STREET LOCAL AUTHORITIES
NGOs
Big impact on local policies
Acceptance Construction
Voice of the customer City planning
Tansportation
7. What scenario ?
Clear rules versus uncertainty
Uncertainty A need for FLEXIBILITY
Technological In the long term;
Policies scenarios should allow
Economy flexibility, not closing any
Demography door, able to adapt and
Finance cope with various
technologies and
emerging usages
(electric vehicle, energy
stotrage, shale gas, etc.)
8. Renewables is great, but ...
we need energy 24 hours a day !
• Problem with intermitent power supply
•Who are the champions
– Solar : Germany, Spain, Japan
– Wind: China, USA, Germany
• Renewable is currently 3% of the energy demand
Cloudy sky = less
solar power
Intermitence ? NO WIND? NO SUN ?
Need for energy storage
Need for flexibility with other technologies, such as gas turbines
to manage demand peak
9. Renewables is great, but ...
Public acceptance + transport issues
Renewable ? Transport is key = How to manage the network ?
Need for many new wind farms. Land use ?
Need for robust grid = acceptance of new aerial networks
10. Renewables is great, but ...
What about energy prices on the spot market ?
What about
speculation on
energy prices ?
Renewable ? How to manage the demand peak ?
How to deal with demand peak and the volatility on the spot energy market ?
11. Building scenarios for the future:
what is the REAL price, where are the REAL costs ?
No transparency in energy facts and figures
What about externalities and hidden costs (transport,
recycling, wastes, subsidies)
Key element to take into account to build a policy at a
national level
• Existence of Energy intensive industries / energy
prices / competitivity
•Maintaining a fleet to manage demand peak
•Carbon carpture & sequestration strategies
In the short term, need for low capital intensive solutions
•Gas turbines
•Long lasting technologies
•Extension Plant Life Extension and Retirements
•What about geopolitical effects and balance of trade ?
12. The future of energy: constraints
Environment Public
Climate change understanding
Carbon And
management acceptance
Finance Ending
Funding natural
capabilities resources
13. Jobs, national economies
and competitiveness
Need to build strong industries
Green and energy jobs
Don't rely just on the internal market
Don't rely on subsidies
Need for some clarity on national policies (IE
Feed In tarifs, etc.)
Manage transition and change = training,
educational system, etc.
Think globally, energy is already to be managed
at continental level, not just national.
A need for transparency
Real energy prices
Give customers a fair and true signal = energy is
not cheep
14. Towards energy in 2050
Recommandations ?
Both sides : supply and demand
Focus on sober homes and sober industries
Empower energy efficiency
Anticipate impacts of any policy or economic
initiative on jobs, CO2 emissions, investment
capabilities, balance of trade
Need for costs and prices transparency
Work at continent level (Europe)
Establish world standards for nuclear safety
Keep the doors opened and keep an eye on
any trends and technologies. Meanwhile use
current technologies to remain nimble flexible
to face demand.
