Presentation made by Wouter Lincklaen Arriens, Eelco van Beek, Oscar Cordeiro and Zaki Shubber,,Members of GWP Technical Committee, GWP Regional Days Meeting, August 22-24, 2012, Stockholm, Sweden

1. Water Security
Background Paper
How can you contribute from your region?
Wouter Lincklaen Arriens
Eelco van Beek
Oscar Cordeiro
Zaki Shubber
24 Aug 2012
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2. Outline of the Paper (see template)
1. IWRM: our journey and mental models
– link between IWRM and water security
– 10 pages
2. Water Security: what it is and what it takes
– dimensions and definition of water security
– how to quantify: framework and indicators
– 25 pages
3. Good Practice: making a difference
– how to implement and apply in decision making
– 25 pages
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3. Water Security as emerging paradigm
• The term is used more and more
– at policy/political level (e.g. Nile agreement) but also at business
level (e.g. WEF)
• Mainly to express something we want to achieve
– … a water secure world …. (GWP)
– … recognizing the vital importance of water security
…. (Nile agreement)
• Few attempts as yet to quantify water security
Question 1: who is our target audience for the paper?
Question 2: why and how quantify water security?

4. Chapter 1 - IWRM and Water Security
1. IWRM and its role to support economic development
and social well-being
2. Summarizing the key principles and concepts of IWRM
3. Water security – an emerging paradigm
4. Water security and IWRM – are they complementary?
5. IWRM as an adaptive process to increase water
security
6. No country is the same – no river basin is the same

5. Key message in chapter 1
• Water Security and IWRM are complementary
– IWRM focuses on process / governance
– Water security specifies what we aim to achieve
IWRM in the Planning Cycle Water Security
Defining water
security
Dimensions
Indicators
Targets
Quantifying water
security
Present situation
Measures
Scoring

6. Chapter 2
1. Dimensions of water security
2. Defining water security
3. Scales in water security – water security for who?
4. Water security in relation to other „securities‟
5. Increasing water security – depending on the conditions
6. Quantifying water security – the indicators
7. An analysis framework to apply water security in
planning and decision making

7. Definitions of water security
• Different disciplines have a different framing of the term
• Many definitions (> 25)
• Most frequently used:
The availability of an acceptable quantity and quality of water for
health, livelihoods, ecosystems and production, coupled with an
acceptable level of water-related risks to people
Grey and Sadoff (2007)
• The 3 dimensions of Water Security in river basins:
– managing the resource (for economic and human use)
– mitigating the risks (flood, droughts, etc.)
– sharing water and benefits (upsteam-downstream, transboundary, etc.)
• Water Security at different scales: national, river basin, specific
geographic areas (e.g. delta‟s), cities, local communities, households

8. Critiques – mainly from academic community
• Inside or outside the water box?
• Link to other securities like food and energy?

9. Global web of national water securities
Zeitoun, University of East Anglia
Back to Question 1: who is our target audience for the paper?

10. Flip-side of water security
• Does your water security come at the cost of insecurity:
– for someone else?
– somewhere else?
• Virtual water / water foot printing
Question 3: How to deal with virtual water in the paper?

11. Quantifying water security
• Steps involved:
– selecting relevant indicators for water security
– combining indicators into a water security index
• Integrated approaches – some examples
– Asian Water Development Outlook (AWDO) and pilot
application to river basin indexes by the Network of
Asian River Basin Organizations (NARBO)
– Maplecroft
• What should GWP recommend?
Question 4: What kind of score cards could we use?

12. AWDO Approach – 5 Key Dimensions
1. Satisfy household water and
sanitation needs in all
communities Composite Index
2. Support productive economies
in agriculture and industry
3. Develop vibrant, livable cities
and towns Example: Brantas Basin - Indonesia
4. Restore healthy rivers and
ecosystems
5. Build resilient communities that
can adapt to change.

13. Asian Water Development Outlook (AWDO)
Vision for Water Security with 5 Key Dimensions (for countries)
1. Satisfy household water and sanitation needs in all communities
2. Support productive economies in agriculture and industry
3. Develop vibrant, livable cities and towns
4. Restore healthy rivers and ecosystems
5. Build resilient communities that can adapt to change.

14. Water Security Assessments for Basins
How far is water security improved in IWRM process?
IWRM Spiral Model AWDO Basin Capital
Water Security Indices

15. Water Security Assessments in River Basins
Adapting Water Security Index to River Basins and Estimating Basin Capitals
Pilot Basins:
• Brantas – Indonesia
• Laguna Lake – Philippines
• Tone-Ara – Japan

16. KD1: Household Water Security Index
What it measures:
Performance in satisfying household water and
sanitation needs and improving hygiene for public
health
KD 1 = f (water supply (%), sanitation (%), DALY*)
* DALY: Age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (for diarrhea)

17. KD2: Economic Water Security Index
What it measures:
Performance in ensuring the productive use of water
to sustain economic growth in food
production, industry and energy
KD 2 = f (water productivity in
agriculture, industry, and energy)

18. KD3: Urban Water Security Index
What it measures:
Performance in creating better urban water services
and management to develop vibrant, livable cities and
towns
KD 3 = f (urban water supply (%), sanitation (%), flood)

19. KD4: Environmental Water Security Index
What it measures:
Performance in restoring their river basins and
ecosystems to health on a national and regional scale
KD 4 = f (pressures/threats, vulnerability/resilience)

20. KD5: Resilience Index (water-related disasters)
What it measures:
Performance in building resilient communities that
can adapt to change
KD 5 = f (exposure, vulnerability, capacity)

21. Composite Water Security Index
What it measures:
How countries or basins are progressing towards
water security
CI = f (KD1, KD2, KD3, KD4, KD5) expressed in 5 stages:
5: Model
4: Effective
3: Capable
2: Engaged
1: Hazardous

22. Pilot Basins
Adapting Water Security Index to River Basins and Estimating Basin Capitals
Brantas River Basin Laguna Lake Basin Tone and Ara Basin
Indonesia Philippines Japan
Area: 11,988 km2 Area: 3,059 km2 Area: 19,780 km2
Population: 13.3 million Population: 7.8 million Population: 32.1 million
5.6 % of National GDP 13.0 % of National GDP 29.9 % of National GDP

23. Maplecroft Approach – Water Security Risk Index
• Indicators used
– access to improved drinking water and sanitation
– availability of renewable water
– reliance on external water supplies
– the relationship between water supply and demand within a
country
– the overall water dependency of each country‟s economy
• Result
– water security risk assessment (score between 0-10) per
country; from extreme risk (0-2.5) to low risk (7.5-10)
– mainly designed for business purposes
– no local conditions,
– no attention for other securities (food, energy, etc.)

25. GWP approach?
• No country is the same – no river basin is the same
– no one-size-fits all solution to increase water security
– stakeholders to determine the keys for success in each case
• Different scales and purposes
– measuring water security at national, basin, and city scale
– assessing water security performance in own location
– comparing water security with other countries, basins, cities
– presenting water security status to professionals or decision-makers
and general public
• Question 5: What framework / method will GWP
recommend for measuring water security?

26. Start with determining relevant indicators to
assess water security in your own location:
Example matrix for use in river basins
IWRM criteria
Economic Social Environmental
Dimension efficiency equity sustainability
indicator 5
Managing the indicator 1 indicator 3
Indicator 6
resource Indicator 2 Indicator 4
Indicator 7
indicator 9
Mitigating the risks indicator 8
Indicator 10
indicator 11
Sharing water and indicator 13 indicator 16
indicator 15
benefits Indicator 14 Indicator 17

27. What might become GWP‟s approach?
Step 1: Assess relevant indicators (for own location)
– guided by a matrix of indicators for key dimensions and reflecting
economic, social and environmental criteria (dimensions may be
different for water security at national, basin and city scales)
– assess current status and present values in a score card
Step 2: Determine actions (for own location)
– determine vision and desired indicator target values
– select development path (road map) with specific measures to
increase water security and achieve vision
Step 3: Determine index values
– compare own performance with other locations and benchmarks
using national, basin or city water security indexes, basin capital,
and others ….. (also useful when presenting to decision-makers)

28. Research into indicators
• Literature research
– What quantifiable indicators can be used to measure important
aspects of water security?
• Sources looked at:
– World Water Development Report 4 “Managing Water under Uncertainty
and Risk”
– UN-Water Key Water Sector Indicators
– Expert Group on Indicators, Monitoring and Databases Proposed
Indicators
– Water Poverty Index
– Asian Water Development Outlook
– Others (suggestions welcome)

29. How to increase water security (from Perspectives Paper)
Water Coping Capacity
Stress LOW HIGH
Water security issues: Water security issues:
 Vulnerability to floods  Mitigate for past, present and future
 Pollution pollution
 Increasing needs for water & sanitation  Ecosystems need for water
services (mainly to large cities)  Legal frameworks ensuring access for all
LOW Increasing water security through: Increasing water security through:
 Development of an appropriate stock of  Effective legal frameworks at a range of
infrastructure (storage, flood control, etc.) scales
 Proper legislation and adequate  Economic incentives
institutions  More ethical management
 Integrated and comprehensive water
planning
Water security issues Water security issues:
 Water demand growing fast  Declining water resources
 Water availability falling to crisis level  Pollution abatement
 Overexploitation of groundwater  Environmental requirements
 Shortages compounded by pollution  Conflicts of use
 Low efficiency of irrigation
 Vulnerability to floods/droughts
HIGH
Increasing water security through: Increasing water security through:
 Optimal mix of increasing supply and  Water conservation and reuse
managing demand  Sustainable policies and legal frameworks
 Strengthening the institutional capacities and institutions for water management and
and adopting a more cohesive and dispute prevention and resolution
integrated legal framework  Strengthening waste water and pollution
 Developing appropriate mechanisms for control through enforceable legal and
intersectoral water allocation institutional mechanisms

30. Chapter 3
1. Building capacity and partnerships
2. Practical tools and approaches
• including tools to help to map the road from level A to
level B
3. Water security and governance
4. Dealing with uncertainty and managing risk

31. Time schedule
• Now: outline and contributions from GWP
regions and knowledge chain
• September: inter-regional expert workshop
• End October: first draft for peer-review
• December: final draft for editing and lay-outing
• January: launch paper at Abu Dhabi summit
Please contribute now!
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32. Contributions requested (see template)
• Chapter 1 on IWRM: our journey and mental models
– Successful IWRM implementation cases in countries, river
basins, and cities
– Cases showing the „IWRM spiral of progress‟ (e.g. update of
basin plan, showing realization and increased performance level)
• Chapter 2 on Water Security: what it is and what it takes
– Suggestions for figures that illustrate the various dimensions of
water security in relation to IWRM criteria
– Examples of assessing and measuring water security (for
countries, river basins, and cities), illustrating methodology
(science) as well as practical guidelines (the art).
– Case of IWRM approach for water-food-energy-climate nexus
• Chapter 3 on Good Practice: making a difference
– Successful leadership examples in IWRM implementation
through multi-stakeholder platforms and partnerships
– Examples of specific tools and approaches to quantify the
various dimensions of water security

33. For discussion now
1. Clarify concept, approach, rationale
2. Contribute cases, examples, justification from the
regions
3. Create how will you use the background paper
to create opportunities to increase
water security in our own location?
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