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Is
Cloud Computing
   a gamble?
Simon
Wardley
DANGER!
Will Robinson
 DANGER!
Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
Pain
Pain




       No. Slides
Pain    25 slides



                    Severe
                    risk of
                     harm

       OK
                              No. Slides
Pain            306 slides



            Severe
            risk of
             harm

       OK
                      No. Slides
http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
Cloud Computing
What is
Cloud Computing?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fimbrethil/
It’s like
computers on
 the internet,
     innit.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
                                    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
Disruptive shift
of the computing
 stack to online
     services.
It’s like
computers on
 the internet,
     innit.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
Image from Oliver Twist,
It’s like SaaS or software as a service, and
  infrastructure provision and PaaS, that’s
       platform as a Service and utility
computing being provided in public clouds,
    which is different from private clouds
  which aren’t cloud computing, unless of
 course you’re talking about hybrid clouds
which sort of are and it’s hype and lock-in
       and did I mention infrastructure?
67 definitions
photos/videoplacebo/3481780379/
Pain            306 slides



            Severe
            risk of
             harm

       OK
                      No. Slides
1. On-demand self-service
  Internet infrastructure where you
pay-as-you-go and use only what you
   need, all managed by a browser,
application or API. Cloud computing is
  broken up into multiple segments
including: Cloud Infrastructure, Cloud
  Platforms and Cloud Applications.
        (see "Cloud Pyramid")
1. On-demand self-service
  Internet infrastructure where you
pay-as-you-go and use only what you
   need, all managed by a browser,
application or API. Cloud computing is
  broken up into multiple segments
including: Cloud Infrastructure, Cloud
  Platforms and Cloud Applications.
              Cloud Pyramid
        (see "Cloud Pyramid")
+ 8 definitions
2.    A new generation of computing
that utilizes distant servers for data
 storage and management, allowing
the device to use smaller and more
  efficient chips that consume less
  energy than standard computers.
2.    A new generation of computing
that utilizes distant servers for data
 storage and management, allowing
the device to use smaller and more
  efficient chips that consume less
  energy than standard computers.
2.    A new generation of computing
that utilizes distant servers for data
 storage and management, allowing
the device to use smaller and more
  efficient chips that consume less
  energy than standard computers.
3.   the ability to draw IT resources
from a third party source.
No definition
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
Our
Cloud =
        Product
What is
 Industrial
Revolution?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fimbrethil/
It’s like
mechanised
horses, innit.
43 definitions
1. Broad socioeconomic and
technological changes starting in the
        early 18th century.
2. Rapid development of industry in
      the early 19th century.
No definition
Not a thing
Transition
Industrial Revolution is a period in
the18th and 19th centuries when major
changes in agriculture, manufacturing, mining,
and transportation had a profound effect on
socioeconomic and culture conditions
It’s like
mechanised
horses, innit.
It’s like
computers on
 the internet,
     innit.
“Cloud computing” is a consequence of
economic and technological conditions that
have combined to cause a disruptive change
in I.T. from a product towards a service
based economy.
Why I.T. is changing.
Why I.T. is changing.

 Benefits & Risks.
Why I.T. is changing.

   Benefits & Risks.

Canonical and the Cloud.
Is
Cloud Computing
   a gamble?
Why I.T. is changing.
Why I.T. is changing




                         http://www.strassmann.com/




       Paul Strassmann
Why I.T. is changing




   Not all IT is the same.
Why I.T. is changing




      Not all IT has value.
Why I.T. is changing




      imperfect to perfect
         competition
Why I.T. is changing




    Yesterday’s
     hot stuff
Why I.T. is changing




    Yesterday’s         Today’s
     hot stuff         boredom
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/
Why I.T. is changing




       Innovation
Why I.T. is changing




       Innovation      Bespoke
Why I.T. is changing




       Innovation      Bespoke   Products
Why I.T. is changing




       Innovation      Bespoke   Products   Services
Why I.T. is changing



    Commoditisation




       Innovation      Bespoke   Products   Services
Why I.T. is changing



    Commoditisation




       Innovation      Bespoke   Products   Services




Competitive Advantage
Why I.T. is changing



    Commoditisation




       Innovation      Bespoke   Products   Services




             Cost of doing business
Why I.T. is changing




        1832

       Innovation
Why I.T. is changing




        1832

       Innovation      Bespoke
Why I.T. is changing




                                 1837

        1832

       Innovation      Bespoke   Products
Image from Oliver Twist
Image from Chicago Historical Society
Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
Why I.T. is changing



                                             1890
                                 1837

        1832
                                              Utility
       Innovation      Bespoke   Products     Grids
                                            (Services)
Why I.T. is changing




          Harvey Hubbell
           (1857-1927)
Why I.T. is changing



                                             1930
                                 1837

        1832
                                             National
       Innovation      Bespoke   Products      Grid
                                            (Services)
Why I.T. is changing




                          As IT becomes ubiquitous
                           it has no strategic value




          Nicholas Carr
Why I.T. is changing




    Yesterday’s         Today’s
     hot stuff         boredom
Why I.T. is changing




   Not all IT is the same.
Why I.T. is changing




                             As IT [activities]
                          becomes ubiquitous it has
                              no strategic value



          Nicholas Carr
Why I.T. is changing




                                                            s
                                                       v ice
                                                    Ser

       Y                                    u cts
                                           d
                                       P ro

                                o ke
                              sp
                            Be
                    t ion
                  va
                no
              In


                                       X
Why I.T. is changing

    Ubiquity
Why I.T. is changing

      Ubiquity

                 Novel
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common
      Ubiquity

                    Novel
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Certainty
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Low
                                Certainty
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Low
                                Certainty
                                            High
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common




                                            TV’s & Phones
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Low                   High
                                Certainty
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Low               High
                                Certainty
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common
      Ubiquity




                          Innovation
                 Novel




                          Low                      High
                                       Certainty
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common



                                                     Services
      Ubiquity




                                         Products



                                       Bespoke
                          Innovation
                 Novel




                          Low                                   High
                                         Certainty
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common
      Ubiquity




                                Innovation
                                 of CRM.
                 Novel




                          Low                            High
                                             Certainty
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common
      Ubiquity




                                     Mid '80s DB
                                     marketing.
                 Novel




                          Low                      High
                                Certainty
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common




                                CRM products
                                        90’s
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Low                         High
                                          Certainty
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common


                                        “Cloud Providers”
                                               like
                                            Salesforce
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Low                        High
                                Certainty
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common

                                                  Expense           Payroll
                                                 Procedure   Accounts
                                                              Payable
                                        Company
                                        Web site
      Ubiquity




                                                      Wiki
                                Social Network
                                   Analysis
                 Novel




                          Low                                            High
                                                 Certainty
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common

                                                  Expense           Payroll
                                                 Procedure   Accounts
                                                              Payable
                                        Company
                                        Web site
      Ubiquity




                                                      Wiki
                                Social Network
                                   Analysis
                 Novel




                          Low                                            High
                                                 Certainty
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Low               High
                                Certainty
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common
      Ubiquity




                                Products
                 Novel




                          Low                 High
                                  Certainty
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common




                                Widespread
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Low                        High
                                         Certainty
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common




                                Widespread
      Ubiquity




                                                      Feature
                                                     Complete
                 Novel




                          Low                                   High
                                         Certainty
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common




                                Widespread
      Ubiquity




                                                      Feature
                                                     Complete
                 Novel




                          Low                                   High
                                         Certainty
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common


                             “as a Service”
                          Volume Operations

                                                    Services
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Low                           High
                                        Certainty
Why I.T. is changing




                           Utility
                         Computing

         John McCarthy
Why I.T. is changing




       Innovation      Bespoke    Products   Services




                       highly disruptive
Why I.T. is changing




                                       The fundamental impulse that sets
                                       and keeps the capitalist engine in
                                       motion comes from the new
                                       consumers, goods, the new methods
                                       of production or transportation, the
                                       new markets, the new forms of
                                       industrial organization that capitalist
                                       enterprise creates.


 Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
Why I.T. is changing




                                       The fundamental impulse that sets
                                       and keeps the capitalist engine in
                                       motion comes from the new
                                       consumers, goods, the new methods
                                       of production or transportation, the
                                       new markets, the new forms of
                                       industrial organization that capitalist
                                       enterprise creates.


 Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
Why I.T. is changing




                                        Creative
                                       Destruction

 Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
Why I.T. is changing



    Commoditisation




       Innovation      Bespoke   Products   Services
Why I.T. is changing




       Innovation      Bespoke   Products   Services
Why I.T. is changing




                                             Power



       Innovation      Bespoke   Products   Hardware



                                            Internet
Why I.T. is changing




                                             Power



         Google        Bespoke   Products   Hardware



                                            Internet
67 definitions of
“cloud computing”
Why I.T. is changing




                                       Commoditisation




                                       Innovation              Services




                                                     Enables

 Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
Why I.T. is changing




                                   Commoditisation




                                   Innovation                 Services




                                                Accelerates

  Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
Why I.T. is changing




   Rate of evolution
     of a system

                       Innovation   Services
Why I.T. is changing




   Rate of evolution
     of a system

  directly related      Innovation   Services

  to

  organisation of its
  subsystems
Why I.T. is changing




                                   Componentisation



  Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
Why I.T. is changing




                       Operating System


                          Hypervisor


              CPU          Memory         I/O
Why I.T. is changing




             Database     Framework        Messaging


                        Operating System


                           Hypervisor


              CPU           Memory            I/O
Why I.T. is changing




                       Application             Service


             Database          Framework      Messaging


                           Operating System


                               Hypervisor


              CPU                Memory          I/O
Why I.T. is changing




                       Application             Service


             Database          Framework      Messaging


                           Operating System


                               Hypervisor


              CPU                Memory          I/O
Why I.T. is changing




                       Application             Service


             Database          Framework      Messaging


                           Operating System


                               Hypervisor


              CPU                Memory          I/O
Why I.T. is changing




                       Application             Service


             Database          Framework      Messaging


                           Operating System


                               Hypervisor


              CPU                Memory          I/O
Why I.T. is changing




                       Application             Service


             Database          Framework      Messaging


  x 100                    Operating System


                               Hypervisor


              CPU                Memory          I/O
Why I.T. is changing




                       Application             Service


             Database           Platform      Messaging


                           Operating System


                               Hypervisor


              CPU                Memory          I/O
Why I.T. is changing




 Application              Service


ase       Platform       Messaging


      Operating System


         Hypervisor                  Infrastructure

           Memory           I/O
Why I.T. is changing




 Application              Service


ase       Platform       Messaging     Platform


      Operating System


        Virtualisation               Infrastructure

           Memory           I/O
Why I.T. is changing




 Application              Service     Application


ase       Platform       Messaging     Platform


      Operating System


        Virtualisation               Infrastructure

           Memory           I/O
Why I.T. is changing



                                     Application
                                      Platform


                                    Infrastructure



       Innovation      Bespoke   Products            Services
Why I.T. is changing



                                     Application
                                      Platform


                                    Infrastructure



       Innovation      Bespoke   Products            Services




       (Componentisation)
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common




                                Widespread
      Ubiquity




                                                      Feature
                                                     Complete
                 Novel




                          Low                                   High
                                         Certainty
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common



                          Volume Operations

                                                    Services
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Low                           High
                                        Certainty
Why I.T. is changing




  Infrastructure as a Service   Amazon EC2
Why I.T. is changing




                                Google App
     Platform as a Service        Engine




  Infrastructure as a Service   Amazon EC2
Why I.T. is changing




     Software as a Service      SalesForce

                                Google App
     Platform as a Service        Engine




  Infrastructure as a Service   Amazon EC2
Why I.T. is changing




                             As IT [activities]
                          becomes ubiquitous it has
                              no strategic value



          Nicholas Carr
Why I.T. is changing



    Commoditisation




       Innovation      Bespoke   Products   Services




             Cost of doing business
Why I.T. is changing



                                      Application
                                       Platform


                                     Infrastructure



       Innovation       Bespoke   Products            Services




                       Disruptive Shift
Why I.T. is changing



                                     Application
                                      Platform


                                    Infrastructure



       Innovation      Bespoke   Products            Services




       (Componentisation)
Why I.T. is changing




  “Cloud computing” is a consequence of
  economic and technological conditions that
  have combined to cause a disruptive change
  in I.T. towards a service based economy.
Why I.T. is changing




                                        Creative
                                       Destruction

 Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
Why I.T. is changing




                           Utility
                         Computing

         John McCarthy
Recap
Recap



   Commoditisation




        Innovation   Bespoke   Products   Services
Recap


                   Common

                                                   Expense           Payroll
                                                  Procedure   Accounts
                                                               Payable
                                          Company
                                          Web site
        Ubiquity




                                                       Wiki
                                  Social Netwok
                                     Analysis
                   Novel




                            Low                                           High
                                                  Certainty
Recap


                   Common



                                                       Services
        Ubiquity




                                           Products



                                         Bespoke
                            Innovation
                   Novel




                            Low                                   High
                                           Certainty
Recap




                          http://www.strassmann.com/




        Paul Strassmann
Recap




                                     Componentisation



    Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
Recap




 Application                Service     Application


ase         Platform       Messaging     Platform


      Operating System


          Virtualisation               Infrastructure

            Memory            I/O
Recap



                                    Application
                                     Platform


                                   Infrastructure



        Innovation   Bespoke   Products             Services




                      Disruptive
Recap


                   Common



                                  “As a Service”

                                                           Services
        Ubiquity

                   Novel




                            Low                                High
                                               Certainty
Recap




    Software as a Service      SalesForce

                               Google App
    Platform as a Service        Engine




 Infrastructure as a Service   Amazon EC2
Recap




                          Utility
                        Computing

        John McCarthy
Transition
Recap




 “Cloud computing” is a consequence of
 economic and technological conditions that
 have combined to cause a disruptive change
 in I.T. towards a service based economy.
Cloud   !   Product
Why I.T. is changing.

 Benefits & Risks.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




 • Economies of scale. (volume)
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




 • Economies of scale. (volume)
 • Pay per use. (utility)
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




 • Economies of scale. (volume)
 • Pay per use. (utility)
 • Speed to market. (componentisation)
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




 • Economies of scale. (volume)
 • Pay per use. (utility)
 • Speed to market. (componentisation)
 • Focus on core. (outsourcing)
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing


                Common
     Ubiquity




                               You
                Novel




                         Low                     High
                                     Certainty
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing


                Common



                                                 Market
     Ubiquity




                               You
                Novel




                         Low                              High
                                     Certainty
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing


                Common



                                                 Market



                                                  Competitive
     Ubiquity




                                                     Gap


                               You
                Novel




                         Low                               High
                                     Certainty
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing


                Common



                                                 Market
     Ubiquity




                               You
                Novel




                         Low                              High
                                     Certainty
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
http://www.flickr.com/photos/giddygoose/
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




                                  The need to constantly
                                  evolve in order to stand
                                  still relative to an eco-
                                  system.



    Professor Leigh M.Van Valen
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




                                  Red Queen
                                  Hypothesis

    Professor Leigh M.Van Valen
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




                                   Common
                                                    Market
•   Economies of scale. (volume)

•   Pay per use. (utility)

•    Speed to market.                                        Competitive
    (componentisation)                                          Gap
•    Focus on core.
    (outsourcing)
                                                  You
                                   Novel




                                            Low                      High
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing



                                      Application
                                       Platform


                                     Infrastructure



      Innovation    Bespoke      Products             Services




                   Disruptive Shift
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




      Transition
   • Management.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




      Transition
   • Management.
   • Trust.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




      Transition
   • Management.
   • Trust.
   • Transparency.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




      Transition
   • Management.
   • Trust.
   • Transparency.
   • Security of supply
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing


                Common




                                           Services
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low                   High
                               Certainty
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




      Transition                        General
   • Management.                     • Suitability.
   • Trust.
   • Transparency.
   • Security of supply.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




      Transition                        General
   • Management.                     • Suitability.
   • Trust.                          • Price competition.
   • Transparency.
   • Security of supply.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




      Transition                        General
   • Management.                     • Suitability.
   • Trust.                          • Price competition.
   • Transparency.                   • Lock-in.
   • Security of supply.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




      Transition                        General
   • Management.                     • Suitability.
   • Trust.                          • Price competition.
   • Transparency.                   • Lock-in.
   • Security of supply.             • Second sourcing.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




             Adoption Barriers
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
Common




               Market


                           Gap            Vs
               You
Novel




         Low                     High
Why I.T. is changing.

   Benefits & Risks.

Canonical and the Cloud.
Canonical and the Cloud
Canonical and the Cloud




 • Fastest growing Linux-based operating system.
Canonical and the Cloud




 • Fastest growing Linux-based operating system.
 • Over 10,000,000 users.
Canonical and the Cloud




       Transition             General
   • Management.           • Suitability.
   • Trust.                • Price competition.
   • Transparency.         • Lock-in.
   • Security of supply.   • Second sourcing.
Canonical and the Cloud




                          Electricity
Canonical and the Cloud




                          Electricity




                                        BOOM!
Canonical and the Cloud




                          Standard Output




                                            BOOM!
Canonical and the Cloud




                           Application


                            Platform




                          Infrastructure
Canonical and the Cloud




                           Application


                            Platform




                          Infrastructure
Canonical and the Cloud



                            Data
              You
                          Application
Canonical and the Cloud



                            Data


                          Application




                           Platform

                          Operating
          Provider         System
      (i.e. CogHead)
                          Hypervisor


                          Bare Metal
Canonical and the Cloud



                            Data


                          Application




                           Platform

                          Operating
                           System
                          BOOM!
                          Hypervisor


                          Bare Metal
Canonical and the Cloud



                              Data


                            Application




                Platform                   Platform

               Operating                  Operating
                System                     System
                                          BOOM!
               Hypervisor                 Hypervisor


               Bare Metal                 Bare Metal
Canonical and the Cloud



                               Data


                             Application




                Platform
                             Multiple       Platform
                            Providers
               Operating                   Operating
                System                      System

               Hypervisor                  Hypervisor


               Bare Metal                  Bare Metal
Canonical and the Cloud



                               Data


                             Application




                Platform
                              Easy          Platform
                            Switching
               Operating                   Operating
                System                      System

               Hypervisor                  Hypervisor


               Bare Metal                  Bare Metal
Canonical and the Cloud



                              Data


                            Application




                Platform
                            Standard       Platform
                             Output
               Operating                  Operating
                System                     System

               Hypervisor                 Hypervisor


               Bare Metal                 Bare Metal
Canonical and the Cloud




         Paul Baran
Canonical and the Cloud




    IPX / SPX
   Banyan Vines
    AppleTalk
      SNA
    DECNET
Canonical and the Cloud




    IPX / SPX
   Banyan Vines
    AppleTalk             TCP/IP
      SNA
     Decnet
Canonical and the Cloud




    IPX / SPX
   Banyan Vines
    AppleTalk             TCP/IP
      SNA
     Decnet
                          Open
Canonical and the Cloud




    IPX / SPX
   Banyan Vines                       Bind
    AppleTalk             TCP/IP    SendMail
      SNA                            Apache
     Decnet
                          Open     Open Source
Canonical and the Cloud




                           IPX / SPX
                          Banyan Vines
       Innovation          AppleTalk     TCP/IP
                             SNA
                            Decnet




      (Componentisation)
Canonical and the Cloud




         Harvey Hubbell
          (1857-1927)
Canonical and the Cloud




                           Application


                            Platform




                          Infrastructure
Canonical and the Cloud




                          Application


                           Platform




                          Amazon EC2
Canonical and the Cloud




            Ubuntu Server Edition
              on Amazon EC2.

       http://www.ubuntu.com/ec2
Canonical and the Cloud




                9.04 (April)
          Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud

      http://www.ubuntu.com/cloud
Canonical and the Cloud
Canonical and the Cloud




 Tracks Amazon EC2 API      Private cloud
                           Eucalyptus          VM

                             Web UI         KVM Hyp.

                            Cloud           Node
                           Controller      Controller

                             Ubuntu Server Edition

                          Physical Machines (bare bones)
Canonical and the Cloud




 Tracks Amazon EC2 API      Private cloud
                           Eucalyptus          VM

 Uses KVM hypervisor         Web UI         KVM Hyp.

                            Cloud           Node
                           Controller      Controller

                             Ubuntu Server Edition

                          Physical Machines (bare bones)
Canonical and the Cloud




 Tracks Amazon EC2 API      Private cloud
                           Eucalyptus          VM

 Uses KVM hypervisor         Web UI         KVM Hyp.

                            Cloud           Node
                           Controller      Controller
 EBS & S3 Equivalent         Ubuntu Server Edition

                          Physical Machines (bare bones)
Canonical and the Cloud




 Tracks Amazon EC2 API        Private cloud
                             Eucalyptus          VM

 Uses KVM hypervisor           Web UI         KVM Hyp.

                              Cloud           Node
                             Controller      Controller
 EBS & S3 Equivalent           Ubuntu Server Edition

                            Physical Machines (bare bones)
 Completely open sourced.
Canonical and the Cloud




                            Hypervisor


                            Bare Metal



                          Private Cloud
Canonical and the Cloud




               Hypervisor     Hypervisor


               Bare Metal     Bare Metal



           Amazon EC2       Private Cloud
Canonical and the Cloud




               Hypervisor
                              Easy        Hypervisor
                            Switching
               Bare Metal                 Bare Metal



           Amazon EC2                   Private Cloud
Canonical and the Cloud




                                   Common
•   Economies of scale. (volume)                    Market
•   Pay per use. (utility)

•    Speed to market.
    (componentisation)                                       Competitive
                                                                Gap
•    Focus on core.
    (outsourcing)

•   Greener (efficient supply                      You
    & demand)
                                   Novel




                                            Low                      High
Canonical and the Cloud




          Public cloud              Private cloud
            Ubuntu MI                     Ubuntu MI
              EC2                           UEC


                      Portability and
                      burst scalability
Canonical and the Cloud



                          Standard
                           Ouptut
Canonical and the Cloud




                  Ecosystem
Canonical and the Cloud




                          Hypervisor


                          Bare Metal
Canonical and the Cloud




                          Hypervisor


                          Bare Metal



      Hypervisor


      Bare Metal
Canonical and the Cloud




      Hypervisor


      Bare Metal



                          Hypervisor


                          Bare Metal
Canonical and the Cloud




      Hypervisor


      Bare Metal          Price

                                  Hypervisor


                                  Bare Metal
Canonical and the Cloud




      Hypervisor
                          Quality of
      Bare Metal
                           Service
                                       Hypervisor


                                       Bare Metal
Canonical and the Cloud


                Common




                             Feature
                         Differentiation
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                          Low                          High
                                           Certainty
Canonical and the Cloud


                Common


                               Price vs QoS
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low                         High
                                         Certainty
Canonical and the Cloud




               Competitive
                 Market
Recap
Recap



   Commoditisation




        Innovation   Bespoke   Products   Services
Recap




                          http://www.strassmann.com/




        Paul Strassmann
Recap



                                    Application
                                     Platform


                                   Infrastructure



        Innovation   Bespoke   Products             Services




                      Disruptive
Recap


                   Common


                                  “as a Service”
                                     Industry
        Ubiquity

                   Novel




                            Low                                High
                                                   Certainty
Recap




                          Utility
                        Computing

        John McCarthy
Recap




 “Cloud computing” is a consequence of
 economic and technological conditions that
 have combined to cause a disruptive change
 in I.T. towards a service based economy.
Recap




 • Economies of scale. (volume)
 • Pay per use. (utility)
 • Speed to market. (componentisation)
 • Focus on core. (outsourcing)
Recap




                                   Common
                                                    Market
•   Economies of scale. (volume)

•   Pay per use. (utility)

•    Speed to market.                                        Competitive
    (componentisation)                                          Gap
•    Focus on core.
    (outsourcing)
                                                  You
                                   Novel




                                            Low                      High
Recap




        Transition            General
   • Management.           • Suitability.
   • Trust.                • Price competition.
   • Transparency.         • Lock-in.
   • Security of supply.   • Second sourcing.
Recap




        Standard Output
Recap




   IPX / SPX
  Banyan Vines               Bind
   AppleTalk     TCP/IP    SendMail
     SNA                    Apache
    Decnet
                 Open     Open Source
Recap




          Hypervisor
                       Standard     Hypervisor
                        Output
          Bare Metal                Bare Metal



        Amazon EC2                Private Cloud
Recap




                 9.04
        Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud
            (Eucalyptus)
Recap




        Competitive
          Market
Recap




                     Hypervisor


                     Bare Metal



        Hypervisor


        Bare Metal
Is
Cloud Computing
   a gamble?
Yes
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                                   Common
                                                    Market
•   Economies of scale. (volume)

•   Pay per use. (utility)

•    Speed to market.                                        Competitive
    (componentisation)                                          Gap
•    Focus on core.
    (outsourcing)
                                                  You
                                   Novel




                                            Low                      High
Is cloud computing a gamble?




             what, whom, when?
Is cloud computing a gamble?




       Transition                 General
   • Management.               • Suitability.
   • Trust.                    • Price competition.
   • Transparency.             • Lock-in.
   • Security of supply.       • Second sourcing.
Is cloud computing a gamble?


                Common
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low               High
                               Certainty
Is cloud computing a gamble?




       Transition                 General
   • Management.               • Suitability.
   • Trust.                    • Price competition.
   • Transparency.             • Lock-in.
   • Security of supply.       • Second sourcing.
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                        Standard Output
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Common




               Market


                            Gap            Vs
               You
Novel




         Low                        High
Is cloud computing a gamble?




       Transition                 General
   • Management.               • Suitability.
   • Trust.                    • Price competition.
   • Transparency.             • Lock-in.
   • Security of supply.       • Second sourcing.
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                       Infrastructure
                          as a Service
                                         Joe
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                                                         Joe
              Bare Metal       Bare Metal   Bare Metal
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                           Hypervisor Technology                Joe
              Bare Metal        Bare Metal         Bare Metal
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                           Hypervisor Technology                Joe
              Bare Metal        Bare Metal         Bare Metal
Is cloud computing a gamble?




  Tom            Storage




                           Hypervisor Technology

              Bare Metal        Bare Metal         Bare Metal
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                 Storage




    Joe                    Hypervisor Technology

              Bare Metal        Bare Metal         Bare Metal
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                 Storage                     PaaS               Dick

                           Hypervisor Technology

              Bare Metal        Bare Metal         Bare Metal
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                 Storage             Development Platform       Dick

                           Hypervisor Technology

              Bare Metal        Bare Metal         Bare Metal
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                 Storage             Development Platform




                           Hypervisor Technology                Joe
              Bare Metal        Bare Metal         Bare Metal
Is cloud computing a gamble?




Harry        Mapping API

                 Storage             Development Platform




                           Hypervisor Technology

              Bare Metal        Bare Metal         Bare Metal
Is cloud computing a gamble?




             Mapping API


  Tom            Storage             Development Platform




                           Hypervisor Technology

              Bare Metal        Bare Metal         Bare Metal
Is cloud computing a gamble?




             Mapping API                     SaaS                Alice
                 Storage             Development Platform




                           Hypervisor Technology

              Bare Metal        Bare Metal          Bare Metal
Is cloud computing a gamble?




             Mapping API             Transport Routing          Alice
                 Storage             Development Platform




                           Hypervisor Technology

              Bare Metal        Bare Metal         Bare Metal
Is cloud computing a gamble?




Harry        Mapping API             Transport Routing

                 Storage             Development Platform




                           Hypervisor Technology

              Bare Metal        Bare Metal         Bare Metal
Is cloud computing a gamble?




             Mapping API             Transport Routing


  Tom            Storage             Development Platform




                           Hypervisor Technology

              Bare Metal        Bare Metal         Bare Metal
Is cloud computing a gamble?




             Mapping API             Transport Routing

                 Storage             Development Platform       Dick

                           Hypervisor Technology

              Bare Metal        Bare Metal         Bare Metal
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                                                       Bob
             Mapping API             Transport Routing

                 Storage             Development Platform




                           Hypervisor Technology

              Bare Metal        Bare Metal         Bare Metal
Is cloud computing a gamble?




             Mapping API             Transport Routing          Alice
                 Storage             Development Platform




                           Hypervisor Technology

              Bare Metal        Bare Metal         Bare Metal
Is cloud computing a gamble?




             Mapping API             Transport Routing

                 Storage             Development Platform




                           Hypervisor Technology

              Bare Metal        Bare Metal         Bare Metal
Is cloud computing a gamble?




             Mapping API             Transport Routing

                 Storage             Development Platform




                           Hypervisor Technology                Joe
              Bare Metal        Bare Metal         Bare Metal
Is cloud computing a gamble?




             Mapping API             Transport Routing

                 Storage             Development Platform




                           Hypervisor Technology            Joe
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                                                                                     fo rm
                                                                                P lat
                              Map                                        e nt
                                 ping
                                        API                          o pm
                                                                   elg
                                                                evn
                          Hype
                               rviso                       t  outi
                                                             RD
                    Sto             r Tec           spor
                       rag
                          e                 hnolran
                                              To
                                                 gy
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                 Bob           Alice
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                 Bob           Alice



               Tom, Dick, Harry or Joe
Is cloud computing a gamble?




               House           House   House   Joe
Is cloud computing a gamble?




  Tom                          Security

               House           House      House
Is cloud computing a gamble?




  Dick
                               Security

               House           House      House
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




                                     http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
Transparency
Thank you
simon.wardley@canonical.com
whoops ...
the outtakes ...
i.e. more slides ...
http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
C. Part II - The Paradox
D. Part III - More or less
E. Things to Watch
F. A fast life
G. Happy Clouds
         simon.wardley@canonical.com
Good, Bad & Ugly
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
The Good



                                 Application
                                  Platform


                                Infrastructure



      Innovation   Bespoke   Products            Services




     (Componentisation)
http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
The Bad



                                  Application
                                   Platform


                                 Infrastructure



      Innovation    Bespoke   Products            Services




                   Disruptive Shift
The Bad


                Common




                               Widespread
     Ubiquity




                                                     Feature
                                                    Complete
                Novel




                         Low                                   High
                                        Certainty
The Bad




                          As IT becomes ubiquitous
                           it has no strategic value




          Nicholas Carr
The Bad




                                        Creative
                                       Destruction

 Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
The Ugly




                             Utility
                           Computing

           John McCarthy
The Ugly




           Software   Software as a Service (SaaS)


       Framework      Framework as a Service (FaaS)




                      Hardware as a Service (HaaS)
           Hardware


                            2007
The Ugly




                          “this is going to
                          lead to a whole
                          lot of aaS.”
                                    Oscon 2007


       Robert Lefkowitz
The Ugly




       2007 - 2008
The Ugly




        Software           OaaS     XaaS
       Application
                        DaaS  DBaaS
       Framework                    SaaSu
        Platform       DaaS DaaS       SaaSy
                       SaaSp PaaS
                                     SaaS
                              HaaS        FaaS
        Hardware         WaaS
      Infrastructure            IaaS FaaS

                         2008
The Ugly




       Application     Application as a Service (SaaS)


           Platform    Platform as a Service (PaaS)




                       Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS)
      Infrastructure


                              2009
Terminology.
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
C. Part II - The Paradox
D. Part III - More or less
E. Things to Watch
F. A fast life
G. Happy Clouds
         simon.wardley@canonical.com
Part I
Why I.T. is
complex
Complexity


                Common
     Ubiquity




                          Innovation
                           of CRM.
                Novel




                         Low                       High
                                       Certainty
Complexity


                Common




                                           Uncertain
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low                           High
                               Certainty
Complexity


                Common




                                           Uncertain
     Ubiquity




                                           Deviation
                Novel




                         Low                           High
                               Certainty
Complexity


                Common




                                           Uncertain
     Ubiquity




                                           Deviation
                                           Differential
                Novel




                         Low                              High
                               Certainty
Complexity


                Common




                                           Uncertain
     Ubiquity




                                           Deviation
                                           Differential
                Novel




                                             Worth
                         Low                              High
                               Certainty
Complexity


                Common
     Ubiquity




                                           Dynamic
                Novel




                         Low                         High
                               Certainty
Complexity


                Common
     Ubiquity




                            Agile
                          XP / Scrum
                Novel




                         Low                       High
                                       Certainty
Complexity


                Common


                                           Utility-like
                                           provision
                                            of CRM
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low                              High
                               Certainty
Complexity


                Common


                                       “Cloud Providers”
                                              like
                                           Salesforce
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low                        High
                               Certainty
Complexity


                Common


                               Defined
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low                        High
                                        Certainty
Complexity


                Common


                               Defined

                         No Deviation
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low                        High
                                        Certainty
Complexity


                Common


                               Defined

                         No Deviation
                               CODB
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low                        High
                                        Certainty
Complexity


                Common


                               Defined

                         No Deviation
                               CODB
     Ubiquity




                                Cost
                Novel




                         Low                        High
                                        Certainty
Complexity


                Common




                           Defined
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low                    High
                                    Certainty
Complexity


                Common




                                           Prince 2,
                                           Six Sigma
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low                           High
                               Certainty
Complexity


                Common




                                                   Prince 2,
                                                   Six Sigma
     Ubiquity




                             Agile
                           XP, Scrum
                Novel




                         Low                                   High
                                       Certainty
Complexity


                Common




                                                 CRM
     Ubiquity




                               CRM
                Novel




                         Low                           High
                                     Certainty
Complexity


                Common




                                           Six Sigma
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low                           High
                               Certainty
Complexity


                Common




                                           COMMODITY
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low                      High
                               Certainty
Complexity


                Common
     Ubiquity




                         INNOVATION
                Novel




                         Low                      High
                                      Certainty
Complexity


                Common




                                 Different
     Ubiquity




                               Methodologies
                Novel




                         Low                   High
                                   Certainty
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
C. Part II - The Paradox
D. Part III - More or less
E. Things to Watch
F. A fast life
G. Happy Clouds
         simon.wardley@canonical.com
Part II
The Paradox
Complexity ... Part II


                 Common




                                                    Prince 2,
                                                    Six Sigma
      Ubiquity




                              Agile
                            XP, Scrum
                 Novel




                          Low                                   High
                                        Certainty
Complexity ... Part II


                 Common




                                                   Six Sigma
      Ubiquity




                          INNOVATION
                 Novel




                          Low                                  High
                                       Certainty
Complexity ... Part II


                 Common

                                                  Expense           Payroll
                                                 Procedure   Accounts
                                                              Payable
                                        Company
                                        Web site
      Ubiquity




                                                      Wiki
                                Social Network
                                   Analysis
                 Novel




                          Low                                            High
                                                 Certainty
Complexity ... Part II


                 Common



                                                  Market



                                                   Competitive
      Ubiquity




                                                      Gap


                                You
                 Novel




                          Low                               High
                                      Certainty
Complexity ... Part II




                                   The need to constantly
                                   evolve in order to stand
                                   still relative to an eco-
                                   system.



     Professor Leigh M.Van Valen
Complexity ... Part II




                                       The fundamental impulse that sets
                                       and keeps the capitalist engine in
                                       motion comes from the new
                                       consumers, goods, the new methods
                                       of production or transportation, the
                                       new markets, the new forms of
                                       industrial organization that capitalist
                                       enterprise creates.


 Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
http://www.sandowplus.co.uk/
Complexity ... Part II




                Innovation Paradox
         Survival today requires ‘coherence,
        coordination and stability’ [order].
                                &
   Survival tomorrow requires the replacement
          of these virtues [disorder].

                         Salaman & Storey
Complexity ... Part II


                 Common




                                                   Order
      Ubiquity




                            Disorder
                 Novel




                          Low                              High
                                       Certainty
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
Complexity ... Part II


                 Common




                                            Six Sigma
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Low                           High
                                Certainty
Complexity ... Part II


                 Common
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Low               High
                                Certainty
Complexity ... Part II


                 Common
      Ubiquity




                                20% Rule
                 Novel




                          Low                          High
                                           Certainty
Complexity ... Part II


                 Common




                                           Rigorous defined
                                              procedures
      Ubiquity




                                20% Rule
                 Novel




                          Low                                High
                                           Certainty
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
C. Part II - The Paradox
D. Part III - More or less
E. Things to Watch
F. A fast life
G. Happy Clouds
         simon.wardley@canonical.com
Things to watch ...
Things to watch




                   Application


                    Platform




                  Infrastructure
Things to watch




                  Competitive
                    Market
Things to watch



                                 Data


                               Application




                   Platform
                               Standard       Platform
                                Output
                  Operating                  Operating
                   System                     System

                  Hypervisor                 Hypervisor


                  Bare Metal                 Bare Metal
Things to watch




                  Platform
Things to watch




                             Technology
                  Platform
                               Vendor
Things to watch




                  Provider

                             Technology
                               Vendor
Things to watch




                  Provider


  Consumer                   Technology
                               Vendor
Things to watch




                  Provider


  Consumer                   Technology
                               Vendor

                    ISV
Things to watch




                  Provider


  Consumer                   Technology
                               Vendor

                    ISV
Things to watch




                  Provider


  Consumer                    Technology
                  Locked-in
                                Vendor

                    ISV
Things to watch




                  Provider


  Consumer                     Open
                             Standard

                    ISV
Things to watch




                  Provider


  Consumer                   EXTEND


                    ISV
Things to watch


                Common




                             Feature
                         Differentiation
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                          Low                          High
                                           Certainty
Things to watch


                Common


                               Price vs QoS
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low                         High
                                         Certainty
Things to watch




                               Open
                  Platform    Source
                             Reference
                              Model
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
B. Why Transparency Matters
C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
D. Part II - The Paradox
E. Part III - More or less
F. Things to Watch
G. A fast life
H. Happy Clouds
        simon.wardley@canonical.com
Part III
More Or Less ...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
                                    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/   http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
I’m in ur Internets




http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/   http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
I’m in ur Internets




   ... web fohwr zero!!
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/   http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
More innovation


                Common
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low               High
                               Certainty
More innovation


                Common

                                           Payroll
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low                    High
                               Certainty
More innovation


                Common

                                                  Payroll


                               Company
                               Web site
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low                           High
                                      Certainty
More innovation


                Common

                                                              Payroll


                                         Company
                                         Web site
     Ubiquity




                               Neuristic Kitten
                                   Thing
                Novel




                         Low                                       High
                                                  Certainty
More innovation


                Common




                               Dynamic
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low                         High
                                         Certainty
More innovation


                Common
     Ubiquity




                         INNOVATION
                Novel




                         Low                      High
                                      Certainty
More innovation


                Common



                                                 Market



                                                  Competitive
     Ubiquity




                                                     Gap


                               You
                Novel




                         Low                               High
                                     Certainty
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
                                    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
More innovation




                                  The need to constantly
                                  evolve in order to stand
                                  still relative to an eco-
                                  system.



    Professor Leigh M.Van Valen
More innovation




          “more efficient”
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
More innovation




          “more process”
More innovation


                Common


                                            Defined
                                           Processes
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low                           High
                               Certainty
More innovation


                Common




                                           COMMODITY
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low                      High
                               Certainty
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/   http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
More innovation


                Common




                                           COMMODITY
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low                      High
                               Certainty
More innovation


                Common




                                           Defined
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Low                        High
                               Certainty
More innovation


                Common
     Ubiquity




                         INNOVATION
                Novel




                         Low                      High
                                      Certainty
More innovation




                                        Creative
                                       Destruction

 Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
                                    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/   http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
More innovation




         “innovate more”
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
More innovation




            “less process”
More innovation




          “more process”
http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
Image from Oliver Twist,
More innovation




          “ideas process”
More innovation


                Common




                                             Rigorous defined
                                                procedures
     Ubiquity




                               Skunk works
                Novel




                         Low                                   High
                                             Certainty
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
C. Part II - The Paradox
D. Part III - More or less
E. Things to Watch
F. A fast life
G. Happy Clouds
         simon.wardley@canonical.com
Adopt a fast life ...
Fast life



     Commoditisation




        Innovation   Bespoke   Products   Services
Fast life




        Innovation   Bespoke   Products   Services




                 Product
                Competition
Fast life
  Adoption




                     Laggards




             Early
                                           Time
                                Products
Fast life
  Adoption




             “Original”              “New and Improved”




                                                     Time
                          Products
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274/
Fast life




                              Diffusion of
                                Product
                              Innovation

            Everett Rogers
            ( 1931 - 2004 )
Fast life


                 Common




                                Product
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Low                         High
                                          Certainty
Fast life


                 Common




                                Product
      Ubiquity




                          INNOVATION
                 Novel




                          Low                         High
                                          Certainty
Fast life
  Adoption




             “Original”              “New and Improved”




                                                     Time
                          Products
Fast life


                 Common



                                Widespread


                                Product
      Ubiquity




                                                       Feature
                                                      Complete


                          INNOVATION
                 Novel




                          Low                                    High
                                          Certainty
Fast life


                 Common

                                  Services


                                Product
      Ubiquity




                          INNOVATION
                 Novel




                          Low                            High
                                             Certainty
Fast life




        Innovation   Bespoke    Products   Services




                     highly disruptive
Fast life


                 Common


                                   Standard
                                   Components
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Low                   High
                                Certainty
Fast life


                 Common


                                             Standard
                                             Components
                          Componentisation
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Low                             High
                                         Certainty
Fast life


                 Common


                                                Standard
                                                Components
                          Componentisation
      Ubiquity




                                Innovation
                 Novel




                          Low                                High
                                             Certainty
Fast life


                 Common


                                                Standard
                                                Components
                          Componentisation
      Ubiquity




                                                   Commoditisation

                                Innovation
                 Novel




                          Low                                   High
                                             Certainty
Fast life


                 Common


                                                Standard
                                                Components
                          Componentisation
      Ubiquity




                                                   Commoditisation

                                Innovation
                 Novel




                          Low                                   High
                                             Certainty
Fast life


                 Common


                                                Standard
                                                Components
                          Componentisation
      Ubiquity




                                                   Commoditisation

                                Innovation
                 Novel




                          Low                                   High
                                             Certainty
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274/
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
C. Part II - The Paradox
D. Part III - More or less
E. Things to Watch
F. A fast life
G. Happy Clouds
         simon.wardley@canonical.com
Happy clouds ...
Happy Clouds




               Three Rules happy
Happy Clouds




               Three Rules happy
                Run the service on my own
   Rule 1
                machines.
Happy Clouds




               Three Rules happy
                Run the service on my own
   Rule 1
                machines.

                Easily switch between my machines
   Rule 2
                and a cloud provider.
Happy Clouds




               Three Rules happy
                Run the service on my own
   Rule 1
                machines.

                Easily switch between my machines
   Rule 2
                and a cloud provider.

                Easily switch between cloud
   Rule 3
                providers.
Happy Clouds




                 Hypervisor


                 Bare Metal



               Private Cloud
Happy Clouds




               Hypervisor
                              Easy        Hypervisor
                            Switching
               Bare Metal                 Bare Metal



          Amazon EC2                    Private Cloud
Happy Clouds




               Competitive
                 Market
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
C. Part II - The Paradox
D. Part III - More or less
E. Things to Watch
F. A fast life
G. Happy Clouds
         simon.wardley@canonical.com
End ...
Beyond End ...
Common
                                            Services
Ubiquity




                               Products




                          Bespoke
    Novel




             Innovation

             Low                                       High
                                Certainty

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Is the cloud a gamble

  • 1. Is Cloud Computing a gamble?
  • 3.
  • 5. Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
  • 7. Pain No. Slides
  • 8. Pain 25 slides Severe risk of harm OK No. Slides
  • 9. Pain 306 slides Severe risk of harm OK No. Slides
  • 14. It’s like computers on the internet, innit.
  • 16. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
  • 17. Disruptive shift of the computing stack to online services.
  • 18. It’s like computers on the internet, innit.
  • 19.
  • 21.
  • 23. It’s like SaaS or software as a service, and infrastructure provision and PaaS, that’s platform as a Service and utility computing being provided in public clouds, which is different from private clouds which aren’t cloud computing, unless of course you’re talking about hybrid clouds which sort of are and it’s hype and lock-in and did I mention infrastructure?
  • 26. Pain 306 slides Severe risk of harm OK No. Slides
  • 27. 1. On-demand self-service Internet infrastructure where you pay-as-you-go and use only what you need, all managed by a browser, application or API. Cloud computing is broken up into multiple segments including: Cloud Infrastructure, Cloud Platforms and Cloud Applications. (see "Cloud Pyramid")
  • 28. 1. On-demand self-service Internet infrastructure where you pay-as-you-go and use only what you need, all managed by a browser, application or API. Cloud computing is broken up into multiple segments including: Cloud Infrastructure, Cloud Platforms and Cloud Applications. Cloud Pyramid (see "Cloud Pyramid")
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33. 2. A new generation of computing that utilizes distant servers for data storage and management, allowing the device to use smaller and more efficient chips that consume less energy than standard computers.
  • 34. 2. A new generation of computing that utilizes distant servers for data storage and management, allowing the device to use smaller and more efficient chips that consume less energy than standard computers.
  • 35. 2. A new generation of computing that utilizes distant servers for data storage and management, allowing the device to use smaller and more efficient chips that consume less energy than standard computers.
  • 36. 3. the ability to draw IT resources from a third party source.
  • 39. Our Cloud = Product
  • 44. 1. Broad socioeconomic and technological changes starting in the early 18th century.
  • 45. 2. Rapid development of industry in the early 19th century.
  • 46.
  • 50. Industrial Revolution is a period in the18th and 19th centuries when major changes in agriculture, manufacturing, mining, and transportation had a profound effect on socioeconomic and culture conditions
  • 52. It’s like computers on the internet, innit.
  • 53. “Cloud computing” is a consequence of economic and technological conditions that have combined to cause a disruptive change in I.T. from a product towards a service based economy.
  • 54. Why I.T. is changing.
  • 55. Why I.T. is changing. Benefits & Risks.
  • 56. Why I.T. is changing. Benefits & Risks. Canonical and the Cloud.
  • 57. Is Cloud Computing a gamble?
  • 58. Why I.T. is changing.
  • 59. Why I.T. is changing http://www.strassmann.com/ Paul Strassmann
  • 60. Why I.T. is changing Not all IT is the same.
  • 61. Why I.T. is changing Not all IT has value.
  • 62. Why I.T. is changing imperfect to perfect competition
  • 63. Why I.T. is changing Yesterday’s hot stuff
  • 64. Why I.T. is changing Yesterday’s Today’s hot stuff boredom
  • 65.
  • 69. Why I.T. is changing Innovation
  • 70. Why I.T. is changing Innovation Bespoke
  • 71. Why I.T. is changing Innovation Bespoke Products
  • 72. Why I.T. is changing Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  • 73. Why I.T. is changing Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  • 74. Why I.T. is changing Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services Competitive Advantage
  • 75. Why I.T. is changing Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services Cost of doing business
  • 76. Why I.T. is changing 1832 Innovation
  • 77. Why I.T. is changing 1832 Innovation Bespoke
  • 78. Why I.T. is changing 1837 1832 Innovation Bespoke Products
  • 79.
  • 81. Image from Chicago Historical Society
  • 82. Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
  • 84. Why I.T. is changing 1890 1837 1832 Utility Innovation Bespoke Products Grids (Services)
  • 85. Why I.T. is changing Harvey Hubbell (1857-1927)
  • 86. Why I.T. is changing 1930 1837 1832 National Innovation Bespoke Products Grid (Services)
  • 87. Why I.T. is changing As IT becomes ubiquitous it has no strategic value Nicholas Carr
  • 88. Why I.T. is changing Yesterday’s Today’s hot stuff boredom
  • 89. Why I.T. is changing Not all IT is the same.
  • 90. Why I.T. is changing As IT [activities] becomes ubiquitous it has no strategic value Nicholas Carr
  • 91. Why I.T. is changing s v ice Ser Y u cts d P ro o ke sp Be t ion va no In X
  • 92. Why I.T. is changing Ubiquity
  • 93. Why I.T. is changing Ubiquity Novel
  • 94. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Novel
  • 95. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Novel Certainty
  • 96. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty
  • 97. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty High
  • 98. Why I.T. is changing Common TV’s & Phones Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 99. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 100. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Innovation Novel Low High Certainty
  • 101. Why I.T. is changing Common Services Ubiquity Products Bespoke Innovation Novel Low High Certainty
  • 102. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Innovation of CRM. Novel Low High Certainty
  • 103. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Mid '80s DB marketing. Novel Low High Certainty
  • 104. Why I.T. is changing Common CRM products 90’s Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 105. Why I.T. is changing Common “Cloud Providers” like Salesforce Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 106. Why I.T. is changing Common Expense Payroll Procedure Accounts Payable Company Web site Ubiquity Wiki Social Network Analysis Novel Low High Certainty
  • 107. Why I.T. is changing Common Expense Payroll Procedure Accounts Payable Company Web site Ubiquity Wiki Social Network Analysis Novel Low High Certainty
  • 108. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 109. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Products Novel Low High Certainty
  • 110. Why I.T. is changing Common Widespread Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 111. Why I.T. is changing Common Widespread Ubiquity Feature Complete Novel Low High Certainty
  • 112. Why I.T. is changing Common Widespread Ubiquity Feature Complete Novel Low High Certainty
  • 113. Why I.T. is changing Common “as a Service” Volume Operations Services Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 114. Why I.T. is changing Utility Computing John McCarthy
  • 115. Why I.T. is changing Innovation Bespoke Products Services highly disruptive
  • 116. Why I.T. is changing The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  • 117. Why I.T. is changing The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  • 118. Why I.T. is changing Creative Destruction Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  • 119. Why I.T. is changing Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  • 120. Why I.T. is changing Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  • 121. Why I.T. is changing Power Innovation Bespoke Products Hardware Internet
  • 122. Why I.T. is changing Power Google Bespoke Products Hardware Internet
  • 124. Why I.T. is changing Commoditisation Innovation Services Enables Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  • 125. Why I.T. is changing Commoditisation Innovation Services Accelerates Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
  • 126. Why I.T. is changing Rate of evolution of a system Innovation Services
  • 127. Why I.T. is changing Rate of evolution of a system directly related Innovation Services to organisation of its subsystems
  • 128. Why I.T. is changing Componentisation Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
  • 129. Why I.T. is changing Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  • 130. Why I.T. is changing Database Framework Messaging Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  • 131. Why I.T. is changing Application Service Database Framework Messaging Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  • 132. Why I.T. is changing Application Service Database Framework Messaging Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  • 133. Why I.T. is changing Application Service Database Framework Messaging Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  • 134. Why I.T. is changing Application Service Database Framework Messaging Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  • 135. Why I.T. is changing Application Service Database Framework Messaging x 100 Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  • 136. Why I.T. is changing Application Service Database Platform Messaging Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  • 137. Why I.T. is changing Application Service ase Platform Messaging Operating System Hypervisor Infrastructure Memory I/O
  • 138. Why I.T. is changing Application Service ase Platform Messaging Platform Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O
  • 139. Why I.T. is changing Application Service Application ase Platform Messaging Platform Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O
  • 140. Why I.T. is changing Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  • 141. Why I.T. is changing Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services (Componentisation)
  • 142. Why I.T. is changing Common Widespread Ubiquity Feature Complete Novel Low High Certainty
  • 143. Why I.T. is changing Common Volume Operations Services Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 144. Why I.T. is changing Infrastructure as a Service Amazon EC2
  • 145. Why I.T. is changing Google App Platform as a Service Engine Infrastructure as a Service Amazon EC2
  • 146. Why I.T. is changing Software as a Service SalesForce Google App Platform as a Service Engine Infrastructure as a Service Amazon EC2
  • 147. Why I.T. is changing As IT [activities] becomes ubiquitous it has no strategic value Nicholas Carr
  • 148. Why I.T. is changing Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services Cost of doing business
  • 149.
  • 150. Why I.T. is changing Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services Disruptive Shift
  • 151. Why I.T. is changing Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services (Componentisation)
  • 152. Why I.T. is changing “Cloud computing” is a consequence of economic and technological conditions that have combined to cause a disruptive change in I.T. towards a service based economy.
  • 153. Why I.T. is changing Creative Destruction Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  • 154. Why I.T. is changing Utility Computing John McCarthy
  • 155. Recap
  • 156.
  • 157. Recap Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  • 158. Recap Common Expense Payroll Procedure Accounts Payable Company Web site Ubiquity Wiki Social Netwok Analysis Novel Low High Certainty
  • 159. Recap Common Services Ubiquity Products Bespoke Innovation Novel Low High Certainty
  • 160. Recap http://www.strassmann.com/ Paul Strassmann
  • 161. Recap Componentisation Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
  • 162. Recap Application Service Application ase Platform Messaging Platform Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O
  • 163. Recap Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services Disruptive
  • 164. Recap Common “As a Service” Services Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 165. Recap Software as a Service SalesForce Google App Platform as a Service Engine Infrastructure as a Service Amazon EC2
  • 166. Recap Utility Computing John McCarthy
  • 167.
  • 169. Recap “Cloud computing” is a consequence of economic and technological conditions that have combined to cause a disruptive change in I.T. towards a service based economy.
  • 170. Cloud ! Product
  • 171. Why I.T. is changing. Benefits & Risks.
  • 172. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing • Economies of scale. (volume)
  • 173. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing • Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility)
  • 174. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing • Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. (componentisation)
  • 175. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing • Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. (componentisation) • Focus on core. (outsourcing)
  • 176. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Common Ubiquity You Novel Low High Certainty
  • 177. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Common Market Ubiquity You Novel Low High Certainty
  • 178. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Common Market Competitive Ubiquity Gap You Novel Low High Certainty
  • 179. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Common Market Ubiquity You Novel Low High Certainty
  • 183. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing The need to constantly evolve in order to stand still relative to an eco- system. Professor Leigh M.Van Valen
  • 184. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Red Queen Hypothesis Professor Leigh M.Van Valen
  • 185. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Common Market • Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. Competitive (componentisation) Gap • Focus on core. (outsourcing) You Novel Low High
  • 186. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services Disruptive Shift
  • 187. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition • Management.
  • 188. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition • Management. • Trust.
  • 189. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition • Management. • Trust. • Transparency.
  • 190. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition • Management. • Trust. • Transparency. • Security of supply
  • 191. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Common Services Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 192. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Transparency. • Security of supply.
  • 193. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Security of supply.
  • 194. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Lock-in. • Security of supply.
  • 195. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Lock-in. • Security of supply. • Second sourcing.
  • 196. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Adoption Barriers
  • 197. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Common Market Gap Vs You Novel Low High
  • 198.
  • 199. Why I.T. is changing. Benefits & Risks. Canonical and the Cloud.
  • 201. Canonical and the Cloud • Fastest growing Linux-based operating system.
  • 202. Canonical and the Cloud • Fastest growing Linux-based operating system. • Over 10,000,000 users.
  • 203. Canonical and the Cloud Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Lock-in. • Security of supply. • Second sourcing.
  • 204. Canonical and the Cloud Electricity
  • 205. Canonical and the Cloud Electricity BOOM!
  • 206. Canonical and the Cloud Standard Output BOOM!
  • 207. Canonical and the Cloud Application Platform Infrastructure
  • 208. Canonical and the Cloud Application Platform Infrastructure
  • 209. Canonical and the Cloud Data You Application
  • 210. Canonical and the Cloud Data Application Platform Operating Provider System (i.e. CogHead) Hypervisor Bare Metal
  • 211. Canonical and the Cloud Data Application Platform Operating System BOOM! Hypervisor Bare Metal
  • 212. Canonical and the Cloud Data Application Platform Platform Operating Operating System System BOOM! Hypervisor Hypervisor Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 213. Canonical and the Cloud Data Application Platform Multiple Platform Providers Operating Operating System System Hypervisor Hypervisor Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 214. Canonical and the Cloud Data Application Platform Easy Platform Switching Operating Operating System System Hypervisor Hypervisor Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 215. Canonical and the Cloud Data Application Platform Standard Platform Output Operating Operating System System Hypervisor Hypervisor Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 216. Canonical and the Cloud Paul Baran
  • 217. Canonical and the Cloud IPX / SPX Banyan Vines AppleTalk SNA DECNET
  • 218. Canonical and the Cloud IPX / SPX Banyan Vines AppleTalk TCP/IP SNA Decnet
  • 219. Canonical and the Cloud IPX / SPX Banyan Vines AppleTalk TCP/IP SNA Decnet Open
  • 220. Canonical and the Cloud IPX / SPX Banyan Vines Bind AppleTalk TCP/IP SendMail SNA Apache Decnet Open Open Source
  • 221. Canonical and the Cloud IPX / SPX Banyan Vines Innovation AppleTalk TCP/IP SNA Decnet (Componentisation)
  • 222. Canonical and the Cloud Harvey Hubbell (1857-1927)
  • 223. Canonical and the Cloud Application Platform Infrastructure
  • 224. Canonical and the Cloud Application Platform Amazon EC2
  • 225. Canonical and the Cloud Ubuntu Server Edition on Amazon EC2. http://www.ubuntu.com/ec2
  • 226. Canonical and the Cloud 9.04 (April) Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud http://www.ubuntu.com/cloud
  • 228.
  • 229. Canonical and the Cloud Tracks Amazon EC2 API Private cloud Eucalyptus VM Web UI KVM Hyp. Cloud Node Controller Controller Ubuntu Server Edition Physical Machines (bare bones)
  • 230. Canonical and the Cloud Tracks Amazon EC2 API Private cloud Eucalyptus VM Uses KVM hypervisor Web UI KVM Hyp. Cloud Node Controller Controller Ubuntu Server Edition Physical Machines (bare bones)
  • 231. Canonical and the Cloud Tracks Amazon EC2 API Private cloud Eucalyptus VM Uses KVM hypervisor Web UI KVM Hyp. Cloud Node Controller Controller EBS & S3 Equivalent Ubuntu Server Edition Physical Machines (bare bones)
  • 232. Canonical and the Cloud Tracks Amazon EC2 API Private cloud Eucalyptus VM Uses KVM hypervisor Web UI KVM Hyp. Cloud Node Controller Controller EBS & S3 Equivalent Ubuntu Server Edition Physical Machines (bare bones) Completely open sourced.
  • 233. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Bare Metal Private Cloud
  • 234. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Hypervisor Bare Metal Bare Metal Amazon EC2 Private Cloud
  • 235. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Easy Hypervisor Switching Bare Metal Bare Metal Amazon EC2 Private Cloud
  • 236. Canonical and the Cloud Common • Economies of scale. (volume) Market • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. (componentisation) Competitive Gap • Focus on core. (outsourcing) • Greener (efficient supply You & demand) Novel Low High
  • 237. Canonical and the Cloud Public cloud Private cloud Ubuntu MI Ubuntu MI EC2 UEC Portability and burst scalability
  • 238. Canonical and the Cloud Standard Ouptut
  • 239. Canonical and the Cloud Ecosystem
  • 240. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Bare Metal
  • 241. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Bare Metal Hypervisor Bare Metal
  • 242. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Bare Metal Hypervisor Bare Metal
  • 243. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Bare Metal Price Hypervisor Bare Metal
  • 244. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Quality of Bare Metal Service Hypervisor Bare Metal
  • 245. Canonical and the Cloud Common Feature Differentiation Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 246. Canonical and the Cloud Common Price vs QoS Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 247. Canonical and the Cloud Competitive Market
  • 248. Recap
  • 249.
  • 250. Recap Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  • 251. Recap http://www.strassmann.com/ Paul Strassmann
  • 252. Recap Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services Disruptive
  • 253. Recap Common “as a Service” Industry Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 254. Recap Utility Computing John McCarthy
  • 255. Recap “Cloud computing” is a consequence of economic and technological conditions that have combined to cause a disruptive change in I.T. towards a service based economy.
  • 256. Recap • Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. (componentisation) • Focus on core. (outsourcing)
  • 257. Recap Common Market • Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. Competitive (componentisation) Gap • Focus on core. (outsourcing) You Novel Low High
  • 258. Recap Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Lock-in. • Security of supply. • Second sourcing.
  • 259. Recap Standard Output
  • 260. Recap IPX / SPX Banyan Vines Bind AppleTalk TCP/IP SendMail SNA Apache Decnet Open Open Source
  • 261. Recap Hypervisor Standard Hypervisor Output Bare Metal Bare Metal Amazon EC2 Private Cloud
  • 262. Recap 9.04 Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud (Eucalyptus)
  • 263.
  • 264. Recap Competitive Market
  • 265. Recap Hypervisor Bare Metal Hypervisor Bare Metal
  • 266.
  • 267. Is Cloud Computing a gamble?
  • 268. Yes
  • 269. Is cloud computing a gamble? Common Market • Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. Competitive (componentisation) Gap • Focus on core. (outsourcing) You Novel Low High
  • 270. Is cloud computing a gamble? what, whom, when?
  • 271. Is cloud computing a gamble? Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Lock-in. • Security of supply. • Second sourcing.
  • 272. Is cloud computing a gamble? Common Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 273. Is cloud computing a gamble? Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Lock-in. • Security of supply. • Second sourcing.
  • 274. Is cloud computing a gamble? Standard Output
  • 275. Is cloud computing a gamble? Common Market Gap Vs You Novel Low High
  • 276. Is cloud computing a gamble? Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Lock-in. • Security of supply. • Second sourcing.
  • 277. Is cloud computing a gamble? Infrastructure as a Service Joe
  • 278. Is cloud computing a gamble? Joe Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 279. Is cloud computing a gamble? Hypervisor Technology Joe Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 280. Is cloud computing a gamble? Hypervisor Technology Joe Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 281. Is cloud computing a gamble? Tom Storage Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 282. Is cloud computing a gamble? Storage Joe Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 283. Is cloud computing a gamble? Storage PaaS Dick Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 284. Is cloud computing a gamble? Storage Development Platform Dick Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 285. Is cloud computing a gamble? Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Joe Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 286. Is cloud computing a gamble? Harry Mapping API Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 287. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Tom Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 288. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API SaaS Alice Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 289. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Transport Routing Alice Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 290. Is cloud computing a gamble? Harry Mapping API Transport Routing Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 291. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Transport Routing Tom Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 292. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Transport Routing Storage Development Platform Dick Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 293. Is cloud computing a gamble? Bob Mapping API Transport Routing Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 294. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Transport Routing Alice Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 295. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Transport Routing Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 296. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Transport Routing Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Joe Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 297. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Transport Routing Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Joe
  • 298. Is cloud computing a gamble? fo rm P lat Map e nt ping API o pm elg evn Hype rviso t outi RD Sto r Tec spor rag e hnolran To gy
  • 299. Is cloud computing a gamble? Bob Alice
  • 300. Is cloud computing a gamble? Bob Alice Tom, Dick, Harry or Joe
  • 301. Is cloud computing a gamble? House House House Joe
  • 302. Is cloud computing a gamble? Tom Security House House House
  • 303. Is cloud computing a gamble? Dick Security House House House
  • 304. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
  • 311. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex C. Part II - The Paradox D. Part III - More or less E. Things to Watch F. A fast life G. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  • 312. Good, Bad & Ugly
  • 314. The Good Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services (Componentisation)
  • 316. The Bad Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services Disruptive Shift
  • 317. The Bad Common Widespread Ubiquity Feature Complete Novel Low High Certainty
  • 318. The Bad As IT becomes ubiquitous it has no strategic value Nicholas Carr
  • 319. The Bad Creative Destruction Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  • 320.
  • 321. The Ugly Utility Computing John McCarthy
  • 322.
  • 323. The Ugly Software Software as a Service (SaaS) Framework Framework as a Service (FaaS) Hardware as a Service (HaaS) Hardware 2007
  • 324. The Ugly “this is going to lead to a whole lot of aaS.” Oscon 2007 Robert Lefkowitz
  • 325. The Ugly 2007 - 2008
  • 326. The Ugly Software OaaS XaaS Application DaaS DBaaS Framework SaaSu Platform DaaS DaaS SaaSy SaaSp PaaS SaaS HaaS FaaS Hardware WaaS Infrastructure IaaS FaaS 2008
  • 327. The Ugly Application Application as a Service (SaaS) Platform Platform as a Service (PaaS) Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) Infrastructure 2009
  • 329. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex C. Part II - The Paradox D. Part III - More or less E. Things to Watch F. A fast life G. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  • 330. Part I Why I.T. is complex
  • 331. Complexity Common Ubiquity Innovation of CRM. Novel Low High Certainty
  • 332. Complexity Common Uncertain Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 333. Complexity Common Uncertain Ubiquity Deviation Novel Low High Certainty
  • 334. Complexity Common Uncertain Ubiquity Deviation Differential Novel Low High Certainty
  • 335. Complexity Common Uncertain Ubiquity Deviation Differential Novel Worth Low High Certainty
  • 336. Complexity Common Ubiquity Dynamic Novel Low High Certainty
  • 337. Complexity Common Ubiquity Agile XP / Scrum Novel Low High Certainty
  • 338. Complexity Common Utility-like provision of CRM Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 339. Complexity Common “Cloud Providers” like Salesforce Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 340. Complexity Common Defined Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 341. Complexity Common Defined No Deviation Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 342. Complexity Common Defined No Deviation CODB Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 343. Complexity Common Defined No Deviation CODB Ubiquity Cost Novel Low High Certainty
  • 344. Complexity Common Defined Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 345. Complexity Common Prince 2, Six Sigma Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 346. Complexity Common Prince 2, Six Sigma Ubiquity Agile XP, Scrum Novel Low High Certainty
  • 347. Complexity Common CRM Ubiquity CRM Novel Low High Certainty
  • 348. Complexity Common Six Sigma Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 349. Complexity Common COMMODITY Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 350. Complexity Common Ubiquity INNOVATION Novel Low High Certainty
  • 351. Complexity Common Different Ubiquity Methodologies Novel Low High Certainty
  • 352. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex C. Part II - The Paradox D. Part III - More or less E. Things to Watch F. A fast life G. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  • 354. Complexity ... Part II Common Prince 2, Six Sigma Ubiquity Agile XP, Scrum Novel Low High Certainty
  • 355. Complexity ... Part II Common Six Sigma Ubiquity INNOVATION Novel Low High Certainty
  • 356. Complexity ... Part II Common Expense Payroll Procedure Accounts Payable Company Web site Ubiquity Wiki Social Network Analysis Novel Low High Certainty
  • 357. Complexity ... Part II Common Market Competitive Ubiquity Gap You Novel Low High Certainty
  • 358. Complexity ... Part II The need to constantly evolve in order to stand still relative to an eco- system. Professor Leigh M.Van Valen
  • 359. Complexity ... Part II The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  • 361. Complexity ... Part II Innovation Paradox Survival today requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’ [order]. & Survival tomorrow requires the replacement of these virtues [disorder]. Salaman & Storey
  • 362. Complexity ... Part II Common Order Ubiquity Disorder Novel Low High Certainty
  • 364. Complexity ... Part II Common Six Sigma Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 365. Complexity ... Part II Common Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 366. Complexity ... Part II Common Ubiquity 20% Rule Novel Low High Certainty
  • 367. Complexity ... Part II Common Rigorous defined procedures Ubiquity 20% Rule Novel Low High Certainty
  • 368. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex C. Part II - The Paradox D. Part III - More or less E. Things to Watch F. A fast life G. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  • 370. Things to watch Application Platform Infrastructure
  • 371. Things to watch Competitive Market
  • 372. Things to watch Data Application Platform Standard Platform Output Operating Operating System System Hypervisor Hypervisor Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 373. Things to watch Platform
  • 374. Things to watch Technology Platform Vendor
  • 375. Things to watch Provider Technology Vendor
  • 376. Things to watch Provider Consumer Technology Vendor
  • 377. Things to watch Provider Consumer Technology Vendor ISV
  • 378. Things to watch Provider Consumer Technology Vendor ISV
  • 379. Things to watch Provider Consumer Technology Locked-in Vendor ISV
  • 380. Things to watch Provider Consumer Open Standard ISV
  • 381. Things to watch Provider Consumer EXTEND ISV
  • 382. Things to watch Common Feature Differentiation Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 383. Things to watch Common Price vs QoS Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 384. Things to watch Open Platform Source Reference Model
  • 385. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Why Transparency Matters C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex D. Part II - The Paradox E. Part III - More or less F. Things to Watch G. A fast life H. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  • 386. Part III More Or Less ...
  • 387. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
  • 388. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
  • 389. I’m in ur Internets http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
  • 390. I’m in ur Internets ... web fohwr zero!! http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
  • 391. More innovation Common Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 392. More innovation Common Payroll Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 393. More innovation Common Payroll Company Web site Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 394. More innovation Common Payroll Company Web site Ubiquity Neuristic Kitten Thing Novel Low High Certainty
  • 395. More innovation Common Dynamic Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 396. More innovation Common Ubiquity INNOVATION Novel Low High Certainty
  • 397. More innovation Common Market Competitive Ubiquity Gap You Novel Low High Certainty
  • 398. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
  • 399.
  • 400. More innovation The need to constantly evolve in order to stand still relative to an eco- system. Professor Leigh M.Van Valen
  • 401. More innovation “more efficient”
  • 403. More innovation “more process”
  • 404. More innovation Common Defined Processes Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 405. More innovation Common COMMODITY Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 406. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
  • 407. More innovation Common COMMODITY Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 408. More innovation Common Defined Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 409. More innovation Common Ubiquity INNOVATION Novel Low High Certainty
  • 410.
  • 411. More innovation Creative Destruction Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  • 412. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
  • 413. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
  • 414. More innovation “innovate more”
  • 416. More innovation “less process”
  • 417. More innovation “more process”
  • 419. Image from Oliver Twist,
  • 420. More innovation “ideas process”
  • 421. More innovation Common Rigorous defined procedures Ubiquity Skunk works Novel Low High Certainty
  • 422. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex C. Part II - The Paradox D. Part III - More or less E. Things to Watch F. A fast life G. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  • 423. Adopt a fast life ...
  • 424. Fast life Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  • 425. Fast life Innovation Bespoke Products Services Product Competition
  • 426. Fast life Adoption Laggards Early Time Products
  • 427. Fast life Adoption “Original” “New and Improved” Time Products
  • 430. Fast life Diffusion of Product Innovation Everett Rogers ( 1931 - 2004 )
  • 431. Fast life Common Product Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 432. Fast life Common Product Ubiquity INNOVATION Novel Low High Certainty
  • 433. Fast life Adoption “Original” “New and Improved” Time Products
  • 434. Fast life Common Widespread Product Ubiquity Feature Complete INNOVATION Novel Low High Certainty
  • 435. Fast life Common Services Product Ubiquity INNOVATION Novel Low High Certainty
  • 436. Fast life Innovation Bespoke Products Services highly disruptive
  • 437. Fast life Common Standard Components Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 438. Fast life Common Standard Components Componentisation Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 439. Fast life Common Standard Components Componentisation Ubiquity Innovation Novel Low High Certainty
  • 440. Fast life Common Standard Components Componentisation Ubiquity Commoditisation Innovation Novel Low High Certainty
  • 441. Fast life Common Standard Components Componentisation Ubiquity Commoditisation Innovation Novel Low High Certainty
  • 442. Fast life Common Standard Components Componentisation Ubiquity Commoditisation Innovation Novel Low High Certainty
  • 444. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex C. Part II - The Paradox D. Part III - More or less E. Things to Watch F. A fast life G. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  • 446. Happy Clouds Three Rules happy
  • 447. Happy Clouds Three Rules happy Run the service on my own Rule 1 machines.
  • 448. Happy Clouds Three Rules happy Run the service on my own Rule 1 machines. Easily switch between my machines Rule 2 and a cloud provider.
  • 449. Happy Clouds Three Rules happy Run the service on my own Rule 1 machines. Easily switch between my machines Rule 2 and a cloud provider. Easily switch between cloud Rule 3 providers.
  • 450. Happy Clouds Hypervisor Bare Metal Private Cloud
  • 451. Happy Clouds Hypervisor Easy Hypervisor Switching Bare Metal Bare Metal Amazon EC2 Private Cloud
  • 452. Happy Clouds Competitive Market
  • 453. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex C. Part II - The Paradox D. Part III - More or less E. Things to Watch F. A fast life G. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  • 456. Common Services Ubiquity Products Bespoke Novel Innovation Low High Certainty