More Related Content Similar to NYC Market Update - Knakal (20) More from Ryan Slack (20) NYC Market Update - Knakal1. ROBERT A. KNAKAL
Chairman & Founding Partner
Massey Knakal Realty Services
BACKGROUND:
• Wharton School of Business - 1984
• Began Career 1984 – CB Richard Ellis
• Massey Knakal Established 1988
BROKERAGE:
• Over 1,175 Properties Sold
• $7.8 Billion Aggregate Market Value
• Two-Time Winner – Most Ingenious Deal of the Year
• REBNY Lifetime Achievement Award
2. NEW YORK CITY MULTI-FAMILY
SALES MARKET OVERVIEW
ROBERT A. KNAKAL
3. CITYWIDE DOLLAR VOLUME
(AGGREGATE SALES PRICE)
2005 –2011, ALL SALES
Total
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Market
Q1 $4,687,088,438 $9,011,375,517 $20,113,620,906 $6,225,691,306 $1,876,791,798 $2,868,750,994 $4,007,498,481
Q2 $9,559,877,112 $10,405,687,994 $15,740,867,793 $8,244,255,279 $1,028,217,272 $3,534,753,921 $8,681,260,927
Q3 $8,247,073,803 $8,273,171,091 $11,800,478,891 $8,142,997,826 $1,685,574,291 $2,691,203,147 $6,503,948,793
$25.2
Q4 $10,109,336,284 $16,506,931,951 $14,537,251,297 $2,687,946,327 $1,500,606,697 $5,136,496,100
$12.6
Total $32,603,375,638 $44,197,166,553 $62,192,218,888 $25,300,890,738 $6,091,190,058 $14,231,204,162 25,590,277,601*
*Annualized
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
4. CITYWIDE DOLLAR VOLUME
(AGGREGATE SALES PRICE)
2005 –2011, ALL SALES (IN BILLIONS)
$70
$62.2
$60
$50 $44.2
$40
$32.6
$30 $25.3 $25.6
$20 $19.2
$14.2
$10 $6.1
$0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
5. NYC TOTAL SALE DOLLAR VOLUME
3rd QUARTER 2011
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
6. CITYWIDE TURNOVER
(NUMBER OF PROPERTIES SOLD)
2005 –2011, ALL SALES
Total Market 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Q1 964 1,320 1,353 951 289 443 495
Q2 1,154 1,284 1,385 938 413 428 505
Q3 1,259 1,149 1,242 680 353 377 548
$25.2
Q4 1,066 1,122 1,038 575 355 442
Total 4,443 4,875 5,018 3,144 1,410 1,690 2,064*
*Annualized
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
7. NYC TOTAL BUILDINGS SOLD
6,000
4,875 5,018
5,000
4,443
4,000
3,144
3,000
2,064
2,000 1,690
1,410 1,548
1,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
8. % OF TOTAL STOCK SOLD
3.50%
2.96% 3.04%
3.00% 2.69%
2.50%
1.91%
2.00%
1.50%
1.16%
1.01%
1.00% 0.87%
0.50%
0.00%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
9. AVG. PRICE PER PROPERTY SOLD
(IN MILLIONS)
$14.0
$12.4 $12.4
$12.0
$10.0 $9.1
$8.0
$8.0 $7.3 $7.2
$6.0
$4.4
$4.0
$2.0
$0.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
10. APARTMENT BUILDINGS
WALK-UP and ELEVATOR SALES
(COMBINED)
# Buildings # Units $ Volume
2009 467 10,504 $1.34 B
2010 546 15,849 $2.63 B
1Q-3Q11 460 13,139 $3.46 B
CHANGE* +12% +11% +75%
*Annualized
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
11. APARTMENT BUILDINGS
WALK-UP SALES
2009
# Buildings # Units $ Volume
Manhattan 76 1,088 $ 252,563,208
Northern Manhattan 42 1,039 $ 94,100,552
Bronx 57 1,635 $ 112,611,847
Brooklyn 132 1,317 $ 165,440,737
Queens 65 453 $ 73,075,375
TOTAL MARKET 372 5,532 $ 697,791,719
2010
# Buildings # Units $ Volume
Manhattan 74 983 $ 290,715,439
Northern Manhattan 62 1,227 $ 119,251,275
Bronx 65 1,464 $ 98,038,423
Brooklyn 65 877 $ 195,924,468
Queens 149 1,551 $ 123,110,671
TOTAL MARKET 415 6,102 $ 827,040,276
1Q-3Q 2011
# Buildings # Units $ Volume
Manhattan 66 823 $ 296,229,000
Northern Manhattan 49 818 $ 101,762,684
Bronx 42 1,008 $ 75,839,539
Brooklyn 150 1,995 $ 259,310,780
Queens 49 642 $ 87,310,391
*Annualized
TOTAL MARKET 356 5,286 $ 819,452,394 Source: Massey Knakal
CHANGE* +14% + 16% +32% Realty Services
12. APARTMENT BUILDINGS
ELEVATOR SALES
2009
# Buildings # Units $ Volume
Manhattan 12 650 $ 239,675,000
Northern Manhattan 22 615 $ 77,908,000
Bronx 34 2,009 $ 148,660,790
Brooklyn 22 1,192 $ 121,201,400
Queens 5 506 $ 54,792,500
TOTAL MARKET 95 4,972 $ 642,237,690
2010
# Buildings # Units $ Volume
Manhattan 24 2,459 $ 1,069,409,181
Northern Manhattan 34 2,795 $ 315,576,019
Bronx 41 3,031 $ 229,261,142
Brooklyn 18 783 $ 105,152,500
Queens 14 679 $ 85,342,000
TOTAL MARKET 131 9,747 $ 1,804,740,842
1Q-3Q 2011
# Buildings # Units $ Volume
Manhattan 26 3,418 $ 2,066,883,641
Northern Manhattan 10 235 $ 42,975,000
Bronx 30 1,888 $ 150,144,370
Brooklyn 26 1,380 $ 196,848,936
Queens 12 932 $ 180,803,247
*Annualized
TOTAL MARKET 104 7,853 $ 2,637,655,194
Source: Massey Knakal
CHANGE* +13% +7% + 95% Realty Services
13. MULTIFAMILY ANALYSIS
CAP RATES
WALK-UP
Change from Change from
2007 2009 2010 2011 2010 2007
Manhattan 4.40% 5.46% 5.78% 5.20% -58 +80
Northern Manhattan 5.43% 7.02% 7.52% 6.54% -98 +111
Bronx 7.45% 7.51% 8.08% 8.39% +31 +94
Brooklyn 5.91% 7.60% 7.17% 7.05% -12 +114
Queens 6.45% 6.72% 7.45% 6.80% -65 +35
ELEVATOR
Change from Change from
2007 2009 2010 2011 2010 2007
Manhattan 3.18% 4.71% 4.80% 4.50% -30 +132
Northern Manhattan 5.11% 5.53% 6.27% 5.88% -39 +77
Bronx 5.85% 7.84% 7.53% 7.25% -28 +140
Brooklyn 5.27% 6.14% 6.79% 6.03% -76 +76
Queens 5.32% 6.04% 6.08% 5.58% -50 +26
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
14. MULTIFAMILY ANALYSIS
GRM
WALK-UP
Change from Change from
2007 2009 2010 2011 2010 2007
Manhattan 15.35 11.66 11.83 11.89 +0.06 -3.46
Northern Manhattan 11.45 8.25 7.51 7.80 +0.29 -3.65
Bronx 7.81 7.16 6.59 6.42 -0.17 -1.39
Brooklyn 10.12 9.42 10.11 8.79 -1.32 -1.33
Queens 11.21 9.93 9.28 9.52 +0.24 -1.69
ELEVATOR
Change from Change from
2007 2009 2010 2011 2010 2007
Manhattan 16.75 13.30 12.78 14.62 +1.84 -2.13
Northern Manhattan 12.54 8.47 8.75 8.41 -0.34 -4.13
Bronx 8.45 6.94 7.25 6.99 -0.26 -1.46
Brooklyn 10.96 8.78 8.63 10.55 +1.92 -0.41
Queens 12.13 9.14 9.66 10.65 +0.99 -1.48
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
15. MULTIFAMILY ANALYSIS
PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT
WALK-UP
Change from Change from
2007 2009 2010 2011 2010 2007
Manhattan $556 $505 $541 $592 +9% +6%
Northern Manhattan $307 $161 $163 $211 +29% -31%
Bronx $108 $88 $87 $97 +11% -10%
Brooklyn $188 $160 $194 $163 -16% -13%
Queens $220 $190 $202 $192 -5% -13%
ELEVATOR
Change from Change from
2007 2009 2010 2011 2010 2007
Manhattan $522 $434 $440 $628 +43% +20%
Northern Manhattan $170 $124 $179 $166 -7% -2%
Bronx $85 $69 $71 $84 +18% -1%
Brooklyn $110 $126 $171 $145 -15% +32%
Queens $117 $133 $176 $193 +10% +65%
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
16. MULTIFAMILY ANALYSIS
PRICE PER UNIT
WALK-UP
Change from
2009 2010 2011 2010
Manhattan $347,630 $373,315 $412,355 +10%
Northern Manhattan $115,780 $104,627 $142,268 +37%
Bronx $73,522 $73,578 $82,213 +12%
Brooklyn $131,574 $132,876 $129,061 -3%
Queens $143,450 $140,938 $142,519 +1%
ELEVATOR
Change from
2009 2010 2011 2010
Manhattan $355,181 $326,325 $583,265 +79%
Northern Manhattan $92,733 $127,910 $182,811 +43%
Bronx $70,643 $73,227 $84,343 +15%
Brooklyn $129,672 $140,564 $176,425 +26%
Queens $108,383 $133,986 $182,438 +37%
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services
17. CAP RATES
MANHATTAN APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2011)
13%
12.34%
WALK-UP
12% 12.02%
11.54% 11.74% ELEVATOR
11.23% 10.83%
11% 11.52% 10.67%
01-02 Current P
9.74% 10.02% Recession Recession R
10% 10.31% 9.54%
10.13% 10.15% O
9.09% J
9.24% 8.92%
8.71%
9% 9.27% 9.25% 8.53%
E
8.96% 8.22% 8.49% C
8.75%
8.52% 8.37% 7.92% T
8% 7.55% 7.58%
E
7.75% 7.22% 7.50%
D
7% 7.42% 7.45% 7.05%
7.19%
7.03%
6.27%
5.78%
6% 6.31%
Major Tax 91-92 5.50% 5.20%
5.05%
Code Change Recession
5% 4.75%
4.60% 4.50% 4.84%
5.00% 4.40%
4.52% 4.50%
4% 3.80%
3.90% 3.65%
3% 3.05%
2%
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008)
18. WALK-UP CAP RATES
COMPARED TO GRM
MANHATTAN WALK-UP APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2011)
16%
15.35%
GRM 14.90%
Major Tax 91-92 CAP RATE 14.25%
14% Code Change Recession 13.80%
01-02 13.04%
Recession 12.60%
12.34%
12% 12.02%
11.74% 11.89%
11.87%
11.23%
10.67%
10.83%
P
10% 10.15% R
10.13% 9.32% 9.74% 9.25% 9.36% 9.58% O
Current
9.09% 8.92% J
8.53% 8.49% 8.80% Recession
9.20%
8.85% 8.22% E
8.71%
8% C
7.92% 7.50%
7.50% T
7.27%
6.89% 6.95% 7.37% 7.05% E
7.22%
7.19% D
5.93%
5.78%
6% 6.02% 6.00%
5.31% 5.20%
4.52% 5.05%
4.73%
5.00%
4.50%
4.75% 4.60%
4% 4.09% 4.40%
3.57%
2%
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008)
19. ELEVATOR CAP RATES
COMPARED TO GRM
MANHATTAN ELEVATOR APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2011)
18%
17.10%
16.75%
GRM
16.40%
16% Major Tax 91-92 CAP RATE 16.00%
Code Change Recession 14.62%
01-02
14% 13.83%
Recession 13.71%
12.74%
12% 12.06% 12.06% 12.05%
11.52% 11.34%
11.54% P
11.55%
10.77% 10.75% R
10.52% 10.45% O
10.31% 10.15%
10% 10.02%
Current J
9.27% 9.54%
9.24%
9.05% Recession E
8.75%
8.54% 8.96% C
7.75%
8% 8.52% 8.37% 7.92% T
7.55% 7.58%
7.31% 7.42% E
7.45%
6.70% D
7.03%
6.21% 6.27% 6.31%
6%
5.60% 5.50%
5.25% 4.84%
4.52%
4.75% 3.90%
4% 4.38% 3.80% 3.65%
4.50%
4.11%
3.05%
2%
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008)
20. CAP RATES
COMPARED TO MORTGAGE RATES
MANHATTAN APARTMENT BUILDINGS (1984-2011)
14%
ELEVATOR
12.34%
12.02% WALK-UP
12% 11.54% 11.74%
11.23% 10.83% P
11.52% 10.67%
R
10.13% 9.74% O
10% 10.31%
10.02% 9.54%
9.09% 10.15% J
9.24% 8.92%
8.71%
8.53% 8.49% E
9.27% 9.25%
8.96% 8.22% C
8.75% 7.92%
8% 8.52% 7.55% 7.58% T
8.37%
7.22%
7.75%
7.50% E
7.05%
7.42% 7.45% 7.19% D
7.03%
6.27% 5.78%
6% 6.31%
5.50%
5.20%
5.05%
4.75%
4.60% 4.40%4.50%
5.00%
4.52%
4% 4.50%
3.65%
3.80% 3.90%
3.05%
2%
0%
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Mortgage Rate 13.5213.2110.93 9.27 10.5010.85 9.96 9.67 8.37 7.92 6.94 9.25 7.12 7.80 7.06 6.79 8.17 7.12 6.87 5.73 5.45 5.52 6.11 6.30 6.02 5.89 4.86 4.36
Elevator 11.5210.31 8.96 9.27 8.52 8.37 9.24 10.0211.5410.15 9.54 8.75 7.42 7.75 7.45 7.03 7.55 6.27 7.58 6.31 5.50 3.80 3.05 3.90 3.65 4.52 4.84 4.50
Walk-Up 12.0211.2310.1310.67 9.09 8.71 9.74 10.8312.3411.74 9.25 8.92 8.53 8.22 7.92 8.49 7.19 7.22 7.50 7.05 5.00 4.75 4.60 4.40 4.50 5.05 5.78 5.20
Source: Massey Knakal Realty Services, Miller Cicero (2003-2008), Federal Reserve Bank