Why Now is Great Time to be Media Sales (and other Media Trends)

MEDIA TRENDS:
Why Now is a Great Time to
Be in Media Sales
Summit Business Media - Strategic Sales Summit
Las Vegas 2010

com
greg@gregstuart.com Twitter.com/gregstuart
1

3 Items To Cover Today
No question, the media world is

Changing.
Marketers don’t know what they
doing.

The world is hungry for Leadership.
2

Wikipedia Says - Salesmen

Insightful Indispensible
Primary function of sales is to generate and
close leads, educate prospects, fill
needs & satisfy wants of
customers appropriately, and therefore turn
prospective customers into actual ones.
…by communicating the necessary
information that encourages a buyer
to achieve their goal.

3

News of Media’s Death..
slide title

…is greatly exaggerated
(for some media)
4

Some slide title
Clearly Stronger

Than others are ever going to be again

5

Media Trends -> Online Wins BIG
$50.0
$45.0
$40.0 Newspaper
$35.0 Magazine
$30.0 Broadcast TV
$25.0 Cable TV
$20.0 Radio
$15.0 Yellow Pages
$10.0 Online
$5.0 Greg Stuart OOH
$- Runs the IAB
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: eMarketer 2009
6

slide title
What Would Google Say?

7

More Change is Coming

75% of U.S. Ad Pros expect to shift more
than a quarter of their ad budgets away
from traditional outlets in the next 5 years.

KPMG January 2009

8

So Says Everyone

59% of U.S. marketers plan to increase budget for
Interactive by pulling funds out of traditional
media.
Forrester March 2009

70% shifting media funds from traditional
to digital
ANA June 2009

9

Even B2B Marketers
% Plan to Increase Spending Digitally in 2010

Print Ads 17%

Trade Shows 17%

Search Marketing 30%

Email 32%

Online Ads 44%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Source: Goldstein Group & Hearst Business Media, Oct 2010
10

The Changetitle
slide is Seismic

General
“The country’s third-largest advertiser,
Motors is getting ready to shift fully half of its
$3 billion budgetinto digital and one-to-one
marketing within the next 3 years.”

Advertising Age
March 17, 2008

11

But That We Knew

The Leading Indicator of those Media
Trends are dramatic changes in
Consumer Behavior.

12

“If you had to live on a deserted island and could
only take one of the following with you, which would
you take?”

Computer / Internet
Books (lots)
TV
Radio
Cell Phone
Newspaper

Source: Yahoo Research 2004
greg@gregstuart.com
13 Twitter.com/gregstuart

People spend 9 hrs/day w/ media*

– TV = 240 minutes
– Internet = 93 minutes
– 30% media time w/ 2+ media

…by the way, Newspapers =12 minutes

Funny, Media is More Important Than
Ever to Consumers
* Ball State University 2005 Middletown Media report
14

Most is Networked Digital Media

15

World Pop
Year
Internet Usage is Staggering 30 hrs online/wk
191M U.S. people 2008
(M)
6,707
2005 6,454
2000 6,070
Equal to 5.7 Billion Hrs a Year  1995 5,674
1990 5,263
99% search/mo @ 80 searches each 1985
1980
4,831
4,435
15 Billion a month 1975 4,068
1970 3,692
73% stream a video, avg 83 videos per mo 1965
1960
3,335
2,982
1955 2,756
11 Billion streams a month 1950 2,519

2009 1.6 Billion users  1900
1850
1,650
1,262
1800 978

2000 360 Million Internet users 
1750 791
1000 310
1 200
500 BC 100
1000 BC 50
2000 BC 35
3000 BC 25
4000 BC 20
U.S. is only 23% of 5000 BC 15
6000 BC 10
Global users today 7000 BC 7
8000 BC 5
9000 BC 3
10,000 BC 1
16 70,000 BC <1

And the Adoption is Faster than Ever

Years to Reach 50 Million Users

Radio 38
TV 13
Internet 4
Ipod 3
60 million new Facebook user in
Facebook 1 the last two months of 2009

0 10 20 30 40
Source: United Nations Cyber Document, Apple, Facebook

17

And TV is Next
slide title

Estimated 800,000 U.S. HH’s
Abandoned Their TVs’ for the
Web in 2009
Another 17% watched a
TV show online
(up from 12%)
Convergence Consulting Group April 2010
18

Business
is Down

Media
What’s Driving the Change?
Usage is
greg@gregstuart.com
19
UpTwitter.com/gregstuart

• 2005 Year of Broadband
• 2006 Year of Online Video
• 2007 Year of Social
• 2008 Year of Recession Reset
• 2009 Year of Mobile Internet

What Are the Latest Trends?
(Per Mary Meeker as Reported at Web 2.0 each year)

20

SOCIAL AND USER-GENERATED MEDIA

21

Consumers’ Interaction with Internet has
Changed – Talking Back!

‘New to Net’ Commun-
Services Retail Contributor
User ications

• First activities • Email • Online banking • CDs/Books • Blogs
• ISP & ease • IM • Travel - Simple • Complex travel • Comments &
• Info. search • Photo sharing • Auto • eBay Motors posting
• LOTS of time • Early social • Groceries • Customer
surfing networks reviews
• Twitter
Web 1.0 Web 2.0 Web 3.0

Source: by Greg Stuart
Prepared Nielsen/NetRatings
Confidential
greg@gregstuart.com
22

• 76% of consumers visit a social
network in a month *

• 17% of time is Social Media **
– Social now represents 22% of
display impressions *

Explosion of Social
* comScore July 2009
** Nielsen 2009
23

slide title
Lot of Options

24

People Want Relationships More than Content
Facebook – Largest Share Gainer of Online Usage Over Past 3 Years

Share of Global Online Time Spent, 6/06 – 6/09
14%

12%
Facebook
% Share of Global Minutes

10%

8% MSN YouTube
6%

4%

2% Yahoo!

0%
6/06 9/06 12/06 3/07 6/07 9/07 12/07 3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09

Yahoo.com Msn.com Google.com YouTube.com Facebook.om

25
Source: Morgan Stanley

Social Media is Evan Overtaking Email

Number of Global Users (MM) Global Minutes Spent per Month (B)
11/06 – 12/09 11/06 – 12/09

900 250

Social Networking Users
800
Surpassed Email = 7/09 200
Social Networking Usage
700 Surpassed Email = 11/07
150

600

100
500

50
400

300 0
11/06 7/07 3/08 11/08 7/09 11/06 7/07 3/08 11/08 7/09

Social Networking Email

26

• 55%+/- of companies are “using” social
networks for marketing *
• 65%+/- of marketers plan to boost Social
spending
– (41% ANA 4/09 to 77% AdMedia Partners 1/09)

• But spending is only 5% of total online
spending

But Yet Marketers Don’t Know What to
do in Social, yet.
* Forrester ‘09 + Equation ‘09
27

No Question
1. Social Networks are not a fad
2. Lots of growth left
3. What’s better for sales than
Networking
(connections, relationships, etc.)

28

2008 2003
1999
2002
2000
2009 2001
2004
2005
2006 2007

2010 THE YEAR OF MOBILE

29

FINALLY!!!
slide title

4.6B Mobile Users WW
17% Smartphone's in U.S.

projected @ 46% WW in 2013

30

Mobile Internet Outpaces Computer Internet
iPhone + iTouch Users = 8x AOL Users 8 Quarters After Launch
60
Mobile Internet Desktop Internet
50
iPhone + iTouch Netscape*
Launched 6/07 Launched 12/94

40
Mobile Internet
Subscribers (MM)

NTT docomo i-mode
30 Launched 6/99

20
Desktop Internet

10 AOL*
V2.0 Launched 9/94

Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19
Quarters Since Launch

31

Global Web Access is Going Mobile

2000 Mobile Web
Total Internet
1500

1000

500 Total
Internet
0
Mobile Web
2009
2013

Forrester 2009
32

The Twitter Phenomena
Registered Users
106 million
100.0 • Adding 300,000
registered a day
80.0
• 180 million uniques
‘Millions

60.0
a mo.
40.0 • 55 million tweets a
20.0
day

0.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Twitter April 2010
33

Marketers Are About to Ride the Mobile
Wave
$1,800.0
$1,600.0 $1,560.0

$1,400.0
$1,200.0 $1,140.0

$1,000.0
$830.0
$800.0
$593.0
$600.0
$416.0
$400.0 $320.0
$200.0
$-
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: eMarketer 9/09
34

Might Be Mobile’s Time
1. Growth is astonishing
2. Smart Phones change the Game
3. Anytime, anywhere ubiquity
defines a great salesperson

35

SO MARKETERS LOVE ALL THE
CHANGE, RIGHT?

36

1966 1996 2006
1. Newspapers 1. Newspapers 1. Newspapers
2. Broadcast TV 2. Magazines 2. Magazines
3. Magazines 3. Cable TV 3. Email
4. Broadcast Radio 4. Broadcast TV 4. Broadcast TV
5. Eight Track 5. Radio 5. Radio
6. Cassette Tapes 6. CD Player
7. Walkman 7. Cable TV
8. VCR 8. Personal Computer
9. Personal Computer 9. Satellite Television
10. Console Video Games 10. Internet
11. PC Video Games 11. Cellphone
12. DVD Players
13. Satellite Radio
14. MP3 Players
15. TivoDVR
16. Slingbox
17. iPod
18. Blogs
19. Online Video
20. Mobile Internet
21. Console Video Games
More Options Than Ever
22. PC Video Games
23. MMORP Games
24. Mobile Games
25. Text Messaging
37 26. Mobile Video

digital advertising more complex than ever and the
options more diverse
Outbound
IM communication iPhone apps
Email SMS/MMS
Streaming Display
marketing marketing
Podcasting Online Microsite
advertising development
Website
Development Influentials

Viral INTERACTIVE AD Seeding
CHANNEL
Online WOM Blogs
Branded
entertainment Microblogging
Search engine App CRM
Video - YouTube mktg Development application RSS

SEO Widgets

38

Ecosystem Looks Like
slide title Seen
Nothing They’ve

39

Confused?
slide title

40

slide title
The State of Your Customer?

41


Primary function of professional sales
is to generate and close leads, educate
prospects, fill needs and satisfy
wants of customers appropriately, and
therefore turn prospective customers into
actual ones.
to achieve their goal

42

IT’S TOO BAD ADVERTISERS ARE
NOT GOOD AT ADVERTISING.

43
Excerpted from speech, “Why Advertisers (& their agencies) will Destroy us if We Let Them”

$112 slide title
Billion Wasted

44

$1 Billion Ad Spending Researched

1.1 Million Consumers Surveyed

45

36%
Motivations Messaging Media

What Did Learn From the Research?

46

ING’s 4 Year Campaign: Fresh Thinking

47

Today’s Ads For ING
Simplifies A Complicated Financial World

48

36% 31%

More, What Do We Know?

49

A
B
Source: IAB Cross Media Study

How Big A Difference Can Creative Make?

50

Creative Makes A BIG Difference

A 20%
Purchase Intent

B 2%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%


51

A

B

And Just to See It Again

52

36% 31% 83%

Yes, It’s That Bad, and Worse

53

The Truth Is…Marketing is Hard

Suppose you have 5 options:
• 5 Brand Positionings
• 5 Customer Segmentations
• 5 Ad Creative Approaches
• 5 Magazine Schedules/Plans
• 5 Online Plans

3,125 Combinations
10 to 10th = 1 billion combinations
54

What Sticks was Written to Be…

A Clarion
to Call*

Marketers for Change
Clarion Call * A clarion call is a powerful request for
action or an irresistible mandate. Frequently used in a
religious context, or in a political context, in that a
politician issues a challenge for action from the
public.

55

Donny Deutsch Quote

“We did a wonderful spot…on the Superbowl… for
Mitsubishi Gallant...that stops at the end and [says]
go to “seewhathappens.com.”
We got about 600,000 clicks.
Was that great or that not great?

We told the client it was great, so it was great.”
[nervous laughter]
− Donny Deutsch speaking to 500 Marketers…

Deutsch is the 14 largest agency in the US
56

So What Do We Do?
slide title

57

effectiveness!
Focused on
What Did Google Do So Right
$20 Billion in Revenue Right!
58

Google’s Revenue Per Page
$68.00 eCPM
$0.54 CPC x 17% click thru x 74% sell thru

What is That Worth to Google?
Source: Jordan Rohan, Analyst at RBC
59

How Can Publishers
slide title
Drive Effectiveness?

60

Stop Selling International Impressions
to Domestic Advertisers
International users
comprise 15% to 100%
30% of a site’s ad
inventory 80%
Non-US
Removing 60% US
International
increases 40%
effectiveness by
18% to 43%
20%

0%
KC ING McDonald's Verisign

61

Respect Diminishing Returns:
It’s a Law of Physics in Media
100%
Awareness, Image or
% of Brand Impact

80% 5
Purchase Intent

4
3 Diminishing
60% 2 Returns
1
40%

20%

0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Frequency or Budget

62

Heaviest Online Quintile Garners
Half the Ad Imps

70%
Percent of Total Impressions

60% 58%

50% Avg.
Freq: 1.0 2.1 3.2 5.5 25.0
40%
30%
19%
20%
11%
10% 5% 6%

0%
-10% Light All other Heavy
Users quintiles Users

63

Putting in Frequency Caps Greatly Improves
Increased Performance
reach by +50% to 70%
72% in Ad
Effectiveness
Percent of Total Impressions

70%
60%
50%
40% Frequency Cap
29% 29% of 3
30% implemented
21%
20%
10% 12%
10%
0%
-10% Light All other Heavy
Users quintiles Users

64

Even Bigger Came from Adjusting the
Marketing Mix
Introducing New Menu Item: Grilled Chicken Flatbread Sandwich

60%
Reinvested Cut
13.6% 6.4%
50% in Online
% Aided Awareness

40% 5pt Gain!
20% of
30% Broadcast Budget

20%
Point of
Diminished
10% Returns

0%

-10% Ad Frequency (or Budget or Time)
65

Optimizing Each Campaign Is High Value

Brand Contri- Brand Contri-
Imps (M) Performance bution Imps (M) Performance bution
Creative 1 -- -- --
Creative 1 10.0 -15.9% (1.59)
Creative 2 15.0 13.8% 2.07
Creative 2 10.0 13.8% 1.38 Creative 3 15.0 11.3% 1.70
Creative 3 10.0 11.3% 1.13
Total 30.0 3.77
Total 30.0 0.92
Source: Insight Express

Same Media Budget  310% Increase
66

You CAN Improve Ad +0% to
Effectiveness INFINITY in Ad
Effectiveness
Insights from the What Sticks Research
Low High
1. Cut out International impressions 18% to 43%
2. Manage Frequency 50% to 70%
3. Capitalize on Time of Day/DoW 10% to 15%
4. Ad Size matters 20% to 54%
5. Page Placement really matters 6% to 350%
6. Creative is “mission critical” 0% to 400%
Total Gain Possible: 0% 2910%

67

Ford F-150 Case Study
slide title

“Most Important Car Launch in
Ford’s History.” Bill Ford
68

The F-150 Online Ads

69

How Big a Difference Can Little Changes Make?

Demo
70

Online = 10X Value
Brand Metric:
Purchase
Consideration Relative
(top 2 box) Cost Index Relative Cost
TV 1104 $11.04
Magazine 456 $4.56
Roadblock 100 $1.00
Online 135 $1.35
Interpretation: If it cost Roadblock $1 (indexed at 100) to increase purchase consideration, then it
cost $1.35 for Online, $4.56 for magazine and $11.04 to TV to achieve the same increase.

71

But Does It Impact Sales?
100%
Equal to +$1,350,000,000
80%
Traditional Media $$$ in U.S. Truck sales

Cost of Portal Home Page
(TV, Magazines)

60% Take-Over ad in
study: $500,000
40%
Cost of Portal Home Page
20% Take-Over ad today:
$2,500,000
0%
Base 2.5% 6% Priceless!
Plan Online Online
* Approx. $200 Million Budget
72

SO YOU WANT TO BE IN MEDIA SALES

73

1. Change is happening (& needed)
2. Opportunity to be Insightful and
Indispensible is greater than ever
3. You’re most incentivized to help

Leadership is Leading Change

Why a Great Time to be Media Sales?

74

Will You Lead Change?

I cannot say whether things will get better
if we change; what I can say is they must
change if they are to get better.

− Georg Christoph Lichtenberg
18th-century German scientist,
satirist and Anglophile

75


Primary function of professional sales
is to generate and close leads, educate
prospects, fill needs and satisfy
wants of customers appropriately, and
therefore turn prospective customers into
actual ones.
to achieve their goal

76

1. Stay up with the Trends
2. Learn what works - be better
3. Share that insight with your customers

Leadership comes from Insight

If You Have the Insight,
You are Indispensible
77

Or Stephen Colbert Said

Today is the first day of the
rest of your life and it's
already 10:15 am.
What a waste.
Stephen Colbert

78

com
greg@gregstuart.com
www.gregstuart.com +1 631 702 0682
www.gregstuartspeaker.com
Mansavesdog.wordpress.com
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www.twitter.com/gregstuart
www.facebook.com/stuartnyc thank you!
www.veoh.com/users/gregstuart

www.linkedin.com/in/gregstuart
79

com
greg@gregstuart.com
+1 631 702 0682
www.gregstuart.com
www.gregstuartspeaker.com
Mansavesdog.wordpress.com
www.twitter.com/gregstuart
www.facebook.com/stuartnyc thank you!
www.veoh.com/users/gregstuart

www.linkedin.com/in/gregstuart
80

greg stuart bio
• Greg Stuart is a recognized leader in digital media & advertising and was selected by Ad Age as one of “10 Who Made Their
Mark” in 2006.
• He is the former CEO of the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB), the trade group for the interactive advertising & marketing
industry. He grew the IAB’s revenues with a CAGR of 37% (overall +500%) while leading the industry from $6 billion to $17
billion in ad spending. The IAB customers included AOL, CNET, Google, Disney, NBD, Yahoo! & 400 others.
• Greg has more than two decades of hands-on operating experience as a proven business builder in the Digital Media and
Technology arenas since 1993. He has extensive experience as CEO/Director/senior executive roles with Y&R, Sony Online
Ventures, Cars.com, Flycast Ad Network and venture-backed DeltaClick.
• In the last two years he has served as Advisor, Director and angel investor to venture-backed companies with a resulting $750
million in exits, each at least at a 10x multiple. He’s also worked with AT&T, Alcatel Lucent & Meredith in redefining their digital
media opportunities for the future.
• Ad Age identified his book, “What Sticks: Why Most Advertising Fails and How to Guarantee Yours Succeeds,” as the “Number
one of 10 books you should have read”.
• Aside from his industry leading status in advertising and digital media, his operating expertise is in leading cross-functional
teams in product development, go-to-market strategy, company positioning, business development/deal making, marketing, and
scalable revenue generation with a record of success in both rapid growth businesses and turnarounds.
• He currently serves on the Board of Zimbio, a next generation webzine with nearly 20 million uniques and backed by Menlo
Ventures and August Capital. He had served on the Board of Rapt (Accel backed), Inc. in SF, sold to Microsoft; and Board of
Allyes (Oak backed) in China, sold to Focus Media. Greg has also served on the Advisory Boards of a dozen venture-backed
companies in Search, Mobile, Video, Research, & Social Media backed by
Intel, Greylock, Sierra, Conway, TimeWarner, USVP, Union Square, Oak VC, DFJ, Canaan, Spark, Intel, First Round Capital
and others.
• He is a member of the National Speakers Association and speaks around the world on the failings, and thus opportunities, of
advertising - Istanbul, Israel, Germany, Mexico City, Jakarta, Sao
Paulo, Switzerland, Zurich, Shanghai, Sydney, Barcelona, Monaco, Tokyo and others.
• Greg has a BA in Economics from the University of Washington and completed Wharton’s intensive Advanced Management
Program in 2008. He lives happily outside of New York City in Bridgehampton, NY with his wife Pamela, twin daughters and
son.
• http://www.linkedin.com/in/gregstuart

81

Why Now is Great Time to be Media Sales (and other Media Trends)

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Why Now is Great Time to be Media Sales (and other Media Trends)