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Snow Analysis
    for Numerical Weather prediction
               at ECMWF




                           Patricia de Rosnay, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Lars Isaksen




European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
IGARSS 2011, Vancouver, 25-29 July 2011                Slide 1   ECMWF
Land surface data assimilation
  1999                             2004                              2010/2011

OI screen level analysis       Revised snow analysis      Structure Surface Analysis

Douville et al. (2000)         Drusch et al. (2004)       Optimum Interpolation (OI) snow analysis
Mahfouf et al. (2000)        Cressman snow depth analysis Pre-processing NESDIS data
Soil moisture 1D OI analysis using SYNOP data improved    High resolution NESDIS data (4km)
based on Temperature and     by using NOAA / NSEDIS Snow
relative humidity analysis   cover extend data (24km)     SEKF Soil Moisture analysis
                                                          Simplified Extended Kalman Filter
                                                          Drusch et al. GRL (2009)
                                                          De Rosnay et al. ECMWF NewsLett. (2011)




   SYNOP Data                       NOAA/NESDIS IMS
                                                          METOP-ASCAT                  SMOS


  IGARSS 2011, Vancouver, 25-29 July 2011                         Slide 2   ECMWF
Snow Analysis
Snow Quantities:

         - Snow depth SD (m)
         - Snow water equivalent SWE (m) – ie mass per m2
         - Snow Density ρs, between 100 and 400 kg/m3
                                      SD×ρS
                               SWE=         [m]
                                       1000
Background variable used in the snow analysis:
      - Snow depth Sb
         computed from forecast SWE and density
         model parameterization revised in 2009
         (Dutra et al., J Hydromet. 2009)

Observation types:
      - Conventional data: SYNOP snow depth (SO)
      - Satellite: Snow cover extent (NOAA/NESDIS)
  IGARSS 2011, Vancouver, 25-29 July 2011           Slide 3   ECMWF
NOAA/NESDIS Snow extent data
Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System
- Time sequenced imagery from geostationary satellites
-    AVHRR,
-    SSM/I
-    Station data

Northern Hemisphere product
-   Daily
-   Polar stereographic projection

Resolution
- 24 km product (1024 × 1024)
-  4 km product (6044 x 6044)

Information content: Snow/Snow free
Format:
- 24km product in Grib
- 4 km product in Ascii


More information at: http://nsidc.org/data/g02156.html
IGARSS 2011, Vancouver, 25-29 July 2011                  Slide 4   ECMWF
NOAA/NESDIS Pre-Processing
   - Pre-processing revised in 2010.
   - NOAA/NESDIS data received daily at 23UTC.
   - Pre-processing:
       - Conversion to BUFR
       - BUFR content: LSM, NESDIS snow extent (snow or snow free),
         and orography, interpolated from the model orograpghy
         on the NESDIS data points.


                                                          Orography (m)
                                                          included
                                                          in the BUFR

                                                          → used in the
                                                          snow analysis




IGARSS 2011, Vancouver, 25-29 July 2011         Slide 5   ECMWF
Snow Analysis
SYNOP Pre-Processing:
  - SYNOP reports converted into BUFR files.
  - BUFR data is put into the ODB (Observation Data Base)

Snow depth analysis in two steps:
  1- NESDIS data (12UTC only):
      - First Guess snow depth compared to NESDIS snow cover
      NOAA snow & First Guess snow free     put 0.1m snow in
      First Guess
       (First Guess snow free: < 0.01m of snow, ie SWE in [1; 4] mm;
       Update: SD 0.1m, snow density=100kg/m3, SWE=0.01m)
      - NESDIS snow free     used as a SYNOP snow free data
  2- Snow depth analysis (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC):
      - Cressman interpolation: 1987-2010
                                Still used in ERA-Interim
      - Optimum Interpolation: Used in Operations since
                                 November 2010
  IGARSS 2011, Vancouver, 25-29 July 2011                      Slide 6   ECMWF
N

Cressman Interpolation                                                         ∑        (
                                                                                 wn S n − S b
                                                                                      O           '
                                                                                                      )
                                                                Sa = Sb +      n =1
                                                                                        N

                                                                                       ∑w
                                                                                       n =1
                                                                                              n

   - (Cressman 1959)
   - SO snow depth from synop reports,
   - Sb background field estimated from the short-range forecast of snow water equivalent,
   - Sb‘ background field at observation location, and
   - wn weight function, which is a function of horizontal r and vertical difference h (model –
   obs): w = H(r) v(h) with:

                              rmax − r 2 
                                2
                   H(r) = max 2         ,0                    rmax = 250 km (influence radius)
                              r + r2 
                              max          

                                      1       if 0 < h          Model above observing station
                              h2
                               max − h2
                   v(h) =                        if – hmax < h < 0 hmax = 300 m (model no more than
                              h2
                               max + h2                                               300m below obs)

                                          0     if h < - hmax          Obs point more than
                                                                        300m higher than model

IGARSS 2011, Vancouver, 25-29 July 2011                              Slide 7          ECMWF
Some issues in the Cressman Snow analysis
                                 “PacMan” Snow Patterns where observations are scarce
       SNOW Depth and SYNOP data in cm (1) 20050220 at 12UTC
        165°W     160°W     155°W   150°W   145°W    140°W   135°W          130°W        125°W        120°W          115°W         110°W      105°W     100°W       95°W            90°W        85°W         80°W        75°W       70°W       65°W
                                                                                                                                                    6                                                                                                                 10001
                                                                                                           57
75°N                                                                                                                                                                     5                                                                                     75°N   4000
                                                                                                           26

70°N                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           70°N
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      150
                                                                                                                                               26

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              North
                                                                      14                                                                                            80
                                                                                                                          19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      100
65°N                                                                                 92      13                 15                                                                                                                                             65°N
                                                                                                                                                                    20
                                                                                                                            38                                                                          43
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              America
                                                                                                                           49                                                  30
                                                                                                      77
                                                                                                      45
                                                                 35                                                   20
60°N                                                                   63
                                                                                                 42              67
                                                                                                                                  39
                                                                                                                               68 34
                                                                                                                                         55   73                    37
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               60°N   20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        35

55°N                                                                               0 6
                                                                                                  6
                                                                                                       3
                                                                                                           33
                                                                                                                6
                                                                                                                 18 26

                                                                                                                     26
                                                                                                                             1 2
                                                                                                                                  50
                                                                                                                                  10
                                                                                                                          23 2 15 26 32 18
                                                                                                                           10
                                                                                                                          19
                                                                                                                          21
                                                                                                                       361112 4
                                                                                                                        15
                                                                                                                          16
                                                                                                                                    12 25 29
                                                                                                                                          10
                                                                                                                                               51
                                                                                                                                                    59 26
                                                                                                                                                    49
                                                                                                                                                    37
                                                                                                                                                    65
                                                                                                                                                                         36
                                                                                                                                                                         71
                                                                                                                                                                                           24
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    52
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    38      39
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             127
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          42
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               55°N
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2005
                                                                                                                      15 4 5     12   7 24 2 9
                                                                                                                                           27    27                       71   46
                                                                                                                                         36 45 40 15
50°N                                                                                                                  2        1
                                                                                                                                  8        153 9                         23 71              5172 60                               34                           50°N
                                                                                                                                                     6                       4569
                                                                                                                                                                                            40 55 46 3               5 28 19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                44 25 79 28
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       109 55
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 34    2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      5
                                                                                                                                                                               53            20         44
                                                                                                                                                                                                     6 18             35             8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  14
                                                                                                                                                                                                               25 7 17        93 14 17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     6
45°N                                                                                                                                                                          10                    11
                                                                                                                                                                                                   7 5 74 1 2
                                                                                                                                                                                                     122 10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 21
                                                                                                                                                                                                           42 14 9 18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            17 18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              1527                             45°N   2
                                                                                                                                                                                      5 3 5       2      10
                                                                                                                                                                                      3 3 3      0 2
                                                                                                                                                                                                   3                                                                  1
        165°W     160°W     155°W   150°W   145°W    140°W   135°W          130°W        125°W        120°W          115°W         110°W      105°W     100°W       95°W            90°W        85°W         80°W        75°W       70°W       65°W




       SNOW Depth and SYNOP data in cm (1) 20070212 at 12UTC
           85°E           90°E      95°E     100°E       105°E             110°E          115°E             120°E                125°E        130°E         135°E             140°E             145°E         150°E             155°E

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          10001
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          4000
75°N                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               75°N
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          150
70°N                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               70°N   100                 Siberia
65°N                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               65°N
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          15
60°N                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               60°N
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          10

55°N
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    “5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   55°N
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1
           85°E           90°E      95°E     100°E       105°E             110°E          115°E             120°E                125°E        130°E         135°E             140°E             145°E         150°E             155°E
Snow Patterns, “PacMan” issues – example on 23 Feb 2010

                                              Deterministic Analysis, T1279 (16km)
       SNOW Depth and SYNOP dataForecasting System IFS cycle 36r1
         85°E
                  (cm) Integrated in cm (1) 20100223 at 12UTC
                90°E   95°E   100°E   105°E    110°E   115°E   120°E   125°E   130°E   135°E   140°E   145°E   150°E   155°E

                                                                                                                                      10001
                                                                                                                                      4000
75°N                                                                                                                           75°N
                                                                                                                                      150
70°N                                                                                                                           70°N   100
                                                                                                                                      50
65°N                                                                                                                           65°N   20
                                                                                                                                      15
60°N                                                                                                                           60°N
                                                                                                                                      10
                                                                                                                                      5
55°N                                                                                                                           55°N
                                                                                                                                      2
                                                                                                                                      1
         85°E   90°E   95°E   100°E   105°E    110°E   115°E   120°E   125°E   130°E   135°E   140°E   145°E   150°E   155°E



 ERA-Interim re-analysis, T255cm (1) 20100223 at 12UTC
  SNOW Depth and SYNOP data in (80km), IFS cycle 31r1
         85°E   90°E   95°
                         E    100°
                                 E    105°E    110°
                                                  E    115°
                                                          E    120°E   125°
                                                                          E    130°
                                                                                  E    135°E   140°
                                                                                                  E    145°E   150°
                                                                                                                  E    155°
                                                                                                                          E

                                                                                                                                      10001
                                                                                                                                      4000
75°N                                                                                                                           75°
                                                                                                                                 N

                                                                                                                                      150

70°N                                                                                                                           70°
                                                                                                                                 N
                                                                                                                                      100
                                                                                                                                      50
65°N                                                                                                                           65°
                                                                                                                                 N    20
                                                                                                                                      15
60°N                                                                                                                           60°
                                                                                                                                 N
                                                                                                                                      10
                                                                                                                                      5
55°N                                                                                                                           55°
                                                                                                                                 N
                                                                                                                                      2
                                                                                                                                      1
         85°E   90°E   95°
                         E    100°
                                 E    105°E    110°
                                                  E    115°
                                                          E    120°E   125°
                                                                          E    130°
                                                                                  E    135°E   140°
                                                                                                  E    145°E   150°
                                                                                                                  E    155°
                                                                                                                          E
Revised snow analysis
Winter 2009-2010 highlighted several shortcomings of the snow
 analysis related to the Cressman analysis scheme as well as to a
 lack of satellite data in coastal areas, as well as issues in the
 NESDIS product pre-processing at ECMWF, fixed in flight in
 operations on 24 Feb 2010.
Revised snow analysis from Nov. 2010:
(from Integrated Forecasting System, IFS cycle 36r4)
   OI: New Optimum Interpolation Snow analysis, using weighting
  functions of Brasnett, J. Appl. Meteo. (1999). The OI makes a
  better use of the model background than Cressman.
   NESDIS: NOAA/NESDIS 4km ASCII snow cover product
  (substituting the 24 km GRIB product) implemented with fixes in
  geometry calculation. The new NESDIS product is of better quality
  with better coverage in coastal areas.
   QC: Introduction of blacklist file and rejection statistics. Also allows
  easier identification of stations related to MS queries.
Snow depth Optimum Interpolation
1. Observed Increments from the interpolated background ∆Si are estimated at
   each observation location i.
2. Analysis increments ∆Sja at each model grid point j are calculated from:
              N
       ∆ Saj = ∑ w i × ∆Si
                 i =1

 3. The optimum weights wi are given for each grid point j by: (B + O) w = b
      b : error covariance between observation i and model grid point j
          (dimension of N observations) b(i) = σb . X µ(i,,j)
      B : error covariance matrix of the background field (N × N observations)
          B(i1,i2) = σ2b ×µ(i1,i2) with the horizontal correlation coefficients µ(i1,i2)
          and σb = 3cm the standard deviation of background errors.
                        ri1 i 2     ri i  2       zi i  2 
      µ(i1 , i 2 ) = (1 +    ) exp −  1 2  . exp −  1 2                 (Brasnett , 1999)
                          Lx        Lx            Lz  
                                                              
    O : covariance matrix of the observation error (N × N observations):
    O = σ2o × I with σo = 4cm the standard deviation of obs. Errors
    Lz; vertical length scale: 800m, Lx: horizontal length scale: 55km
    Quality Control: if ∆Si> Tol (σb2 + σo2 )1/2 ; Tol = 5
IGARSS 2011, Vancouver, 25-29 July 2011                              Slide 11     ECMWF
OI vs Cressman
                         N
In both cases: ∆ S =
                     a
                     j   ∑w
                         i =1
                                i   × ∆Si


Cressman (1959): weights are function of
horizontal and vertical distances.


OI: The correlation coefficients of B and b follow a
second-order autoregressive horizontal structure
and a Gaussian for the vertical elevation
differences.
OI has longer tails than Cressman and considers
more observations. Model/observation information
optimally weighted by an error statistics.
NESDIS 4km product


- Data thinning to 24 km -> same data quantity, improved quality
- Data Orography interpolated from high res (T3999, ie 5km) IFS
Snow Depth Analysis

                      Old:
                      Cressman
                      NESDIS
                      24 km




                      New:
                      OI
                      NESDIS
                      4km
Snow Water Equivalent Analysis increments
(18UTC) Accumulated for January 2010, in mm of water
                                                       Accumulated
                                                       January 2010
                                                       In mm of water

                                                       Old:
                                                       Cressman
                                                       NESDIS
                                                       24 km


                                                       New:
                                                       OI
                                                       NESDIS
                                                       4km
Snow Depth Analysis
Cressman, NESDIS 24 km                OI, NESDIS 4km




Case study: 22 december 2009 – major snow fall in Europe
- Removes snow free patches and overestimated snow patches
- Better agreement with SYNOP data and NESDIS data
New snow analysis
- Snow Optimum Interpolation using Brasnett 1999 structure functions
- A new IMS 4km snow cover product to replace the 24km product
- Improved QC and monitoring possibilities
               Number of SYNOP data used in the Analysis in January 2010




          Identified a lack of SYNOP Snow depth data in Sweden
Use of Additional Snow depth data
  Since December 2010, Sweden has been providing additional snow depth
Data, Near Real Time
(06 UTC)
through the GTS


Snow depth analysis
using SYNOP data




Snow depth analysis
using SYNOP data
+ additional snow
data



Implemented as a
new report type,
in flight from 29
March 2011
Use of Additional Snow depth data




                         control normalised fi28 minus fi29
                          Root mean square error forecast
                     N.hem Lat 20.0 to 90.0 Lon -180.0 to 180.0
                      Date: 20101221 00UTC to 20110107 00UTC
                             500hPa Geopotential 00UTC
                                                                                Snow Depth difference (cm)
                                  Confidence: 90%                               Due to using additional non-SYNOP
                                   Population: 18                               data in Sweden
 0.08


 0.06


 0.04


 0.02
                                                                                 Impact on 500hPa Geopotential
    0


 -0.02


 -0.04


 -0.06


 -0.08
         0   1   2      3       4      5       6      7      8    9   10   11
                                      Forecast Day
Comparison against SYNOP data
        Old analysis (Cressman and NESDIS 24km)
        New analysis (OI and NESDIS 4km)

      RMSD between analysis and observations
Independent validation
Sodankyla, Finland (67.368N, 26.633E)   Winter 2010-2011




                             ECMWF deterministic analysis
                             SYNOP snow depths
                             FMI-ARC snow pit
                             and ultrasonic depth gauge




         Figures produced by R. Essery, Univ Edinburgh)
New snow analysis
Impact
   RMSE Forecast 1000hPa
   Geopotentail in Europe
   Improved when above 0

  Impact of OI vs Cressman
  (both use NESDIS 24km)




  Overall Impact of
  OI NESDIS 4km vs
  Cressman NESDIS 24 km
New snow Analysis           Cressman +24km NESDIS
in Operations
            Old: Cressman
            NESDIS 24km

                            OI Brasnett 1999 +4km NESDIS
                New: OI
             NESDIS 4km
FC impact (East Asia):




                                - OI has longer tails than
                                Cressman and considers more
                                observations.
                                - Model/observation information
                                -

                                optimally weighted by an error
                                statistics.
Summary and Future Plans
•   New snow analysis implemented at ECMWF
     •   Based on a 2D Optimum Interpolation
     •   Uses Brasnett 1999 structure functions
     •Uses SYNOP and high resolution snow cover data from
     NOAA/NESDIS,
     •   Flexible to use non-SYNOP reports (new report codetype)
     •   Improved QC (blacklisting and monitoring possibilities).
•OI has longer tails than Cressman and considers more
observations.
•Model/observation information optimally weighted with error
statistics.
• Positive impact on NWP. However extensive validation using
independent data needs to be done
•In the future, use of combined EKF/OI system for
NESDIS/conventional information data assimilation.

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Snow Analysis for Numerical Weather prediction at ECMWF

  • 1. Snow Analysis for Numerical Weather prediction at ECMWF Patricia de Rosnay, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Lars Isaksen European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts IGARSS 2011, Vancouver, 25-29 July 2011 Slide 1 ECMWF
  • 2. Land surface data assimilation 1999 2004 2010/2011 OI screen level analysis Revised snow analysis Structure Surface Analysis Douville et al. (2000) Drusch et al. (2004) Optimum Interpolation (OI) snow analysis Mahfouf et al. (2000) Cressman snow depth analysis Pre-processing NESDIS data Soil moisture 1D OI analysis using SYNOP data improved High resolution NESDIS data (4km) based on Temperature and by using NOAA / NSEDIS Snow relative humidity analysis cover extend data (24km) SEKF Soil Moisture analysis Simplified Extended Kalman Filter Drusch et al. GRL (2009) De Rosnay et al. ECMWF NewsLett. (2011) SYNOP Data NOAA/NESDIS IMS METOP-ASCAT SMOS IGARSS 2011, Vancouver, 25-29 July 2011 Slide 2 ECMWF
  • 3. Snow Analysis Snow Quantities: - Snow depth SD (m) - Snow water equivalent SWE (m) – ie mass per m2 - Snow Density ρs, between 100 and 400 kg/m3 SD×ρS SWE= [m] 1000 Background variable used in the snow analysis: - Snow depth Sb computed from forecast SWE and density model parameterization revised in 2009 (Dutra et al., J Hydromet. 2009) Observation types: - Conventional data: SYNOP snow depth (SO) - Satellite: Snow cover extent (NOAA/NESDIS) IGARSS 2011, Vancouver, 25-29 July 2011 Slide 3 ECMWF
  • 4. NOAA/NESDIS Snow extent data Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System - Time sequenced imagery from geostationary satellites - AVHRR, - SSM/I - Station data Northern Hemisphere product - Daily - Polar stereographic projection Resolution - 24 km product (1024 × 1024) - 4 km product (6044 x 6044) Information content: Snow/Snow free Format: - 24km product in Grib - 4 km product in Ascii More information at: http://nsidc.org/data/g02156.html IGARSS 2011, Vancouver, 25-29 July 2011 Slide 4 ECMWF
  • 5. NOAA/NESDIS Pre-Processing - Pre-processing revised in 2010. - NOAA/NESDIS data received daily at 23UTC. - Pre-processing: - Conversion to BUFR - BUFR content: LSM, NESDIS snow extent (snow or snow free), and orography, interpolated from the model orograpghy on the NESDIS data points. Orography (m) included in the BUFR → used in the snow analysis IGARSS 2011, Vancouver, 25-29 July 2011 Slide 5 ECMWF
  • 6. Snow Analysis SYNOP Pre-Processing: - SYNOP reports converted into BUFR files. - BUFR data is put into the ODB (Observation Data Base) Snow depth analysis in two steps: 1- NESDIS data (12UTC only): - First Guess snow depth compared to NESDIS snow cover NOAA snow & First Guess snow free put 0.1m snow in First Guess (First Guess snow free: < 0.01m of snow, ie SWE in [1; 4] mm; Update: SD 0.1m, snow density=100kg/m3, SWE=0.01m) - NESDIS snow free used as a SYNOP snow free data 2- Snow depth analysis (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC): - Cressman interpolation: 1987-2010 Still used in ERA-Interim - Optimum Interpolation: Used in Operations since November 2010 IGARSS 2011, Vancouver, 25-29 July 2011 Slide 6 ECMWF
  • 7. N Cressman Interpolation ∑ ( wn S n − S b O ' ) Sa = Sb + n =1 N ∑w n =1 n - (Cressman 1959) - SO snow depth from synop reports, - Sb background field estimated from the short-range forecast of snow water equivalent, - Sb‘ background field at observation location, and - wn weight function, which is a function of horizontal r and vertical difference h (model – obs): w = H(r) v(h) with:  rmax − r 2  2 H(r) = max 2 ,0  rmax = 250 km (influence radius)  r + r2   max  1 if 0 < h Model above observing station h2 max − h2 v(h) = if – hmax < h < 0 hmax = 300 m (model no more than h2 max + h2 300m below obs) 0 if h < - hmax Obs point more than 300m higher than model IGARSS 2011, Vancouver, 25-29 July 2011 Slide 7 ECMWF
  • 8. Some issues in the Cressman Snow analysis “PacMan” Snow Patterns where observations are scarce SNOW Depth and SYNOP data in cm (1) 20050220 at 12UTC 165°W 160°W 155°W 150°W 145°W 140°W 135°W 130°W 125°W 120°W 115°W 110°W 105°W 100°W 95°W 90°W 85°W 80°W 75°W 70°W 65°W 6 10001 57 75°N 5 75°N 4000 26 70°N 70°N 150 26 North 14 80 19 100 65°N 92 13 15 65°N 20 38 43 50 America 49 30 77 45 35 20 60°N 63 42 67 39 68 34 55 73 37 60°N 20 35 55°N 0 6 6 3 33 6 18 26 26 1 2 50 10 23 2 15 26 32 18 10 19 21 361112 4 15 16 12 25 29 10 51 59 26 49 37 65 36 71 24 52 38 39 127 42 55°N 15 10 2005 15 4 5 12 7 24 2 9 27 27 71 46 36 45 40 15 50°N 2 1 8 153 9 23 71 5172 60 34 50°N 6 4569 40 55 46 3 5 28 19 44 25 79 28 109 55 34 2 3 5 53 20 44 6 18 35 8 14 25 7 17 93 14 17 6 45°N 10 11 7 5 74 1 2 122 10 21 42 14 9 18 17 18 1527 45°N 2 5 3 5 2 10 3 3 3 0 2 3 1 165°W 160°W 155°W 150°W 145°W 140°W 135°W 130°W 125°W 120°W 115°W 110°W 105°W 100°W 95°W 90°W 85°W 80°W 75°W 70°W 65°W SNOW Depth and SYNOP data in cm (1) 20070212 at 12UTC 85°E 90°E 95°E 100°E 105°E 110°E 115°E 120°E 125°E 130°E 135°E 140°E 145°E 150°E 155°E 10001 4000 75°N 75°N 150 70°N 70°N 100 Siberia 65°N 65°N 50 20 2007 15 60°N 60°N 10 55°N “5 55°N 2 1 85°E 90°E 95°E 100°E 105°E 110°E 115°E 120°E 125°E 130°E 135°E 140°E 145°E 150°E 155°E
  • 9. Snow Patterns, “PacMan” issues – example on 23 Feb 2010 Deterministic Analysis, T1279 (16km) SNOW Depth and SYNOP dataForecasting System IFS cycle 36r1 85°E (cm) Integrated in cm (1) 20100223 at 12UTC 90°E 95°E 100°E 105°E 110°E 115°E 120°E 125°E 130°E 135°E 140°E 145°E 150°E 155°E 10001 4000 75°N 75°N 150 70°N 70°N 100 50 65°N 65°N 20 15 60°N 60°N 10 5 55°N 55°N 2 1 85°E 90°E 95°E 100°E 105°E 110°E 115°E 120°E 125°E 130°E 135°E 140°E 145°E 150°E 155°E ERA-Interim re-analysis, T255cm (1) 20100223 at 12UTC SNOW Depth and SYNOP data in (80km), IFS cycle 31r1 85°E 90°E 95° E 100° E 105°E 110° E 115° E 120°E 125° E 130° E 135°E 140° E 145°E 150° E 155° E 10001 4000 75°N 75° N 150 70°N 70° N 100 50 65°N 65° N 20 15 60°N 60° N 10 5 55°N 55° N 2 1 85°E 90°E 95° E 100° E 105°E 110° E 115° E 120°E 125° E 130° E 135°E 140° E 145°E 150° E 155° E
  • 10. Revised snow analysis Winter 2009-2010 highlighted several shortcomings of the snow analysis related to the Cressman analysis scheme as well as to a lack of satellite data in coastal areas, as well as issues in the NESDIS product pre-processing at ECMWF, fixed in flight in operations on 24 Feb 2010. Revised snow analysis from Nov. 2010: (from Integrated Forecasting System, IFS cycle 36r4) OI: New Optimum Interpolation Snow analysis, using weighting functions of Brasnett, J. Appl. Meteo. (1999). The OI makes a better use of the model background than Cressman. NESDIS: NOAA/NESDIS 4km ASCII snow cover product (substituting the 24 km GRIB product) implemented with fixes in geometry calculation. The new NESDIS product is of better quality with better coverage in coastal areas. QC: Introduction of blacklist file and rejection statistics. Also allows easier identification of stations related to MS queries.
  • 11. Snow depth Optimum Interpolation 1. Observed Increments from the interpolated background ∆Si are estimated at each observation location i. 2. Analysis increments ∆Sja at each model grid point j are calculated from: N ∆ Saj = ∑ w i × ∆Si i =1 3. The optimum weights wi are given for each grid point j by: (B + O) w = b b : error covariance between observation i and model grid point j (dimension of N observations) b(i) = σb . X µ(i,,j) B : error covariance matrix of the background field (N × N observations) B(i1,i2) = σ2b ×µ(i1,i2) with the horizontal correlation coefficients µ(i1,i2) and σb = 3cm the standard deviation of background errors. ri1 i 2   ri i  2    zi i  2  µ(i1 , i 2 ) = (1 + ) exp −  1 2  . exp −  1 2   (Brasnett , 1999) Lx   Lx     Lz       O : covariance matrix of the observation error (N × N observations): O = σ2o × I with σo = 4cm the standard deviation of obs. Errors Lz; vertical length scale: 800m, Lx: horizontal length scale: 55km Quality Control: if ∆Si> Tol (σb2 + σo2 )1/2 ; Tol = 5 IGARSS 2011, Vancouver, 25-29 July 2011 Slide 11 ECMWF
  • 12. OI vs Cressman N In both cases: ∆ S = a j ∑w i =1 i × ∆Si Cressman (1959): weights are function of horizontal and vertical distances. OI: The correlation coefficients of B and b follow a second-order autoregressive horizontal structure and a Gaussian for the vertical elevation differences. OI has longer tails than Cressman and considers more observations. Model/observation information optimally weighted by an error statistics.
  • 13. NESDIS 4km product - Data thinning to 24 km -> same data quantity, improved quality - Data Orography interpolated from high res (T3999, ie 5km) IFS
  • 14. Snow Depth Analysis Old: Cressman NESDIS 24 km New: OI NESDIS 4km
  • 15. Snow Water Equivalent Analysis increments (18UTC) Accumulated for January 2010, in mm of water Accumulated January 2010 In mm of water Old: Cressman NESDIS 24 km New: OI NESDIS 4km
  • 16. Snow Depth Analysis Cressman, NESDIS 24 km OI, NESDIS 4km Case study: 22 december 2009 – major snow fall in Europe - Removes snow free patches and overestimated snow patches - Better agreement with SYNOP data and NESDIS data
  • 17. New snow analysis - Snow Optimum Interpolation using Brasnett 1999 structure functions - A new IMS 4km snow cover product to replace the 24km product - Improved QC and monitoring possibilities Number of SYNOP data used in the Analysis in January 2010 Identified a lack of SYNOP Snow depth data in Sweden
  • 18. Use of Additional Snow depth data Since December 2010, Sweden has been providing additional snow depth Data, Near Real Time (06 UTC) through the GTS Snow depth analysis using SYNOP data Snow depth analysis using SYNOP data + additional snow data Implemented as a new report type, in flight from 29 March 2011
  • 19. Use of Additional Snow depth data control normalised fi28 minus fi29 Root mean square error forecast N.hem Lat 20.0 to 90.0 Lon -180.0 to 180.0 Date: 20101221 00UTC to 20110107 00UTC 500hPa Geopotential 00UTC Snow Depth difference (cm) Confidence: 90% Due to using additional non-SYNOP Population: 18 data in Sweden 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02  Impact on 500hPa Geopotential 0 -0.02 -0.04 -0.06 -0.08 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Forecast Day
  • 20. Comparison against SYNOP data Old analysis (Cressman and NESDIS 24km) New analysis (OI and NESDIS 4km) RMSD between analysis and observations
  • 21. Independent validation Sodankyla, Finland (67.368N, 26.633E) Winter 2010-2011 ECMWF deterministic analysis SYNOP snow depths FMI-ARC snow pit and ultrasonic depth gauge Figures produced by R. Essery, Univ Edinburgh)
  • 22. New snow analysis Impact RMSE Forecast 1000hPa Geopotentail in Europe Improved when above 0 Impact of OI vs Cressman (both use NESDIS 24km) Overall Impact of OI NESDIS 4km vs Cressman NESDIS 24 km
  • 23. New snow Analysis Cressman +24km NESDIS in Operations Old: Cressman NESDIS 24km OI Brasnett 1999 +4km NESDIS New: OI NESDIS 4km FC impact (East Asia): - OI has longer tails than Cressman and considers more observations. - Model/observation information - optimally weighted by an error statistics.
  • 24. Summary and Future Plans • New snow analysis implemented at ECMWF • Based on a 2D Optimum Interpolation • Uses Brasnett 1999 structure functions •Uses SYNOP and high resolution snow cover data from NOAA/NESDIS, • Flexible to use non-SYNOP reports (new report codetype) • Improved QC (blacklisting and monitoring possibilities). •OI has longer tails than Cressman and considers more observations. •Model/observation information optimally weighted with error statistics. • Positive impact on NWP. However extensive validation using independent data needs to be done •In the future, use of combined EKF/OI system for NESDIS/conventional information data assimilation.