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Complexification of Higher Education
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Complexification of Higher Education


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Presented at XLi Conference, Billings, Montana, March 22, 2013.

Presented at XLi Conference, Billings, Montana, March 22, 2013.



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  • http://www.onlinelearningsurvey.com/reports/goingthedistance.pdf
  • Adapted from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing
  • IBIS Capital | Global e-Learning Investment Review
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Complexification of Higher Education Complexification of Higher Education Presentation Transcript

  • The Complexification of Higher Education George Siemens, PhD March 22, 2013 Xli 2013 Billings, Montana
  • Higher education is diversifying:Student profilesLearning needsAcademic programsAssessmentThe narrative of higher education is no longersingular, reflective of complexification of thesector.
  • Openness
  • Allen & Seaman, 2012
  • Annual volumes of articles in full immediate open access journals Laakso and Björk BMC Medicine 2012 10:124
  • Nature, 2013
  • Technology
  • http://www.scribd.com/doc/48586092/KPCB-Top-10-Mobile-Trends
  • Education Sector Factbook, 2012
  • Allen & Seaman 2011
  • SaaS PaaS IaaSCloud Computing
  • Entrepreneurship & Startups
  • On the Last Digital Frontier Investors give education technology firms the nod Joseph Wilson, Special to Financial Post | Sep 10, 2012
  • Ed-tech startupsWith transformations already underway in news,music, videos/movies, startup gold rush nowturning focus to education
  • IBIS Capital: Global e-Learning Investment Review, 2013
  • Economic
  • Center on Budget andPolicy Priorities, 2013
  • An Agenda for Australian Higher Education, 2013-2016
  • The Conference Board
  • McKinsey Quarterly, 2012
  • Moody’s Investor Services, 2013
  • NYTimes, UNESCO Data
  • Student Profiles
  • Increasing diversity of student profilesThe U.S. is now in a position when less thanhalf of students could be considered fulltimestudents. In other words, students who canattend campus five days a week nine-to-five,are now a minority. (Bates, 2013)
  • Certificates- Fastest growing form of credentialing(800% increase in 30 years)- Industry-facing Carnevale, Rose, Hanson 2012
  • Learning Analytics
  • “The slightest move in the virtual landscapehas to be paid for in lines of code” Bruno Latour
  • Data trails revealsour sentiments,our attitudes,our social connections,our intentions,what we know,how we learn,and what we might do next.
  • Focus of analytics Who Benefits?Course-level: social networks, Learners, facultyconceptual development, languageanalysisAggregate (big data) predictive Learners, facultymodeling, patterns of success/failureInstitutional: learner profiles, Administrators, IR, funders,performance of academics, resource marketingallocationRegional & National (state/provincial): Governments, administratorscomparisons between systemsInternational: ‘world class universities’ National governments (OECD),
  • Denley, 2012
  • Rio Salado CollegeStudent Support Model Image source: EDUCAUSE
  • Persistence Plus Image source: EDUCAUSE
  • Granularization:Courses to Competencies
  • The American Council on Education “says itwants more students to earn college creditfor learning that occurs outside thecollege classroom. Some of these creditpathways are trendy and new; others havebeen around for decades.” Inside Higher Ed, 2013
  • State of Wisconsin, 2012
  • State of Wisconsin, 2012
  • State of Wisconsin, 2012
  • “Pay for performance” education?Shifting (sharing) responsibility for studentsuccess with content providers?
  • Knowledge in pieces diSessa, 1993
  • Future(s) of higher education
  • “The future looks like this: Access to college-level education will befree for everyone; the residential college campus will becomelargely obsolete; tens of thousands of professors will lose theirjobs; the bachelor’s degree will become increasingly irrelevant; andten years from now Harvard will enroll ten million students.”
  • "We have 10,000 colleges in this country, so when you get down to thevery bottom, [a qualification] is worth nothing…a fair fraction of thevery bad universities in the US will disappear. It may take 10 years, itmay take 20 years, but that is going to happen."
  • Status QuoRisk: HighIntelligence level of this strategy: StupidImpact: Loss of relevance
  • Accreditors (teach globally, accredit locally)Risk: mediumIntelligence level of this strategy: okImpact: Loss of control of teaching,competition with other accreditors (incl.for-profit). Fragmentation of learnerexperience. Loss of brand.
  • Localized/specializedRisk: lowIntelligence level of this strategy: kinda smartImpact: play to strengths of local system.Community. Retain local presence. Brandloyalty
  • Partnership modelRisk: mediumIntelligence level of this strategy: kinda smartImpact: Employment-focused. Politicallyrelevant. Learner interest is high.
  • Net ModelRisk: High (short term). Low (long term)Intelligence level of this strategy: smartImpact: Expensive. Analytics-driven. Culturalshift needed. Risk of moving too early.University as new integrator. Branddevelopment
  • EdTech Innovation Conference Calgary, May 1-3, 2013 www.edinnovation.ca
  • Twitter/Gmail: gsiemens