Más contenido relacionado Similar a Путешествие в мир профессий (20) 2. © Copyright RMIT
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Why is Decision Making important?
“Decisions are the coin of the realm in
business”
Rogers, P., and Blenko, M. Who has the D?; How Clear
Decision Roles Enhance Organisational Performance
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1. The context of business decision making
2. The individual in decision making
3. Effective decision making
4. Ineffective decision making
5. How does this apply to me?
What will we cover?
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“.. above all else, leaders are made or broken by the
quality of their decisions”
(Garvin and Roberto, Harvard Business Review, September, 2001, p
108).
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“… a discrete choice at a single point in time …”
INFORMATION OPTIONS EVALUATION OUTCOME
(Garvin and Roberto, pp 108– 116)
An “event” view of Decision Making
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“ a process … over months, weeks or years… power, politics,
personal nuances and institutional history”.
EXTENDED
TIME FRAME “POLITICAL” ITERATIONS
SUPPORT FOR
OUTCOME
(Garvin and Roberto, pp 108– 116)
A “process” view of Decision Making
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The combination “improves the odds..”
• Multiple alternatives
• Assumption testing
• Well-defined criteria
• Dissent and debate
• Perceived fairness
Superior Decision Making is “difficult”
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The RAPID response .. (Not “lock-step” - Role based)
• R – Recommend (proposal with data)
• A – Agree (on the actual proposal)
• P – Perform (clarity of execution - roles)
• I – Input (who is consulted?)
• D – Decide (person responsible - final decision)
(Rogers and Blenko, 2005)
A Decision Making Primer
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Naturalistic Decision Making (NDR)
“.. The study of how people use experience to make decisions in
field settings.”
(Flin, R, et.al, 2002, Decision making Under Stress, Ashgate)
Building a model based on what has happened before:
• Human factors engineering
• Air crew training / Military
Models of Decision Making
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Technology-based Decision Making
“According to this argument, technology will replace much of
the calculation and analysis on which decision making is
based.”
(Hilmer, F and Donaldson, L 1996, Management Redeemed,
Free Press)
• NHS (National Health Service)
• Student data base management
Models of Decision Making
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Analytics based Decision Making
“Some companies have built their business on their
ability to collect, analyse and act on data …”
• Analytics is central to strategy
• Multiple initiatives, complex data, statistical analysis
• Managed at enterprise level (not departmental)
(Davenport, T., Competing on Analytics, HBR, Jan 06)
Models of Decision Making
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Cognitive Dissonance
(1950’s Leon Festinger, Stanford University)
• Psychological discomfort caused by inconsistency among a
person’s beliefs, attitudes and / or actions
• Discrediting logical information to reach more comfortable
conclusions
• Change the weak cognition to conform to the stronger one
Models of Decision Making
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Stimulus and Response
Flight and Fight
Self-protect - repress
Nature – “hard wiring” – 50% to 80%?
Nurture – learned behaviours
On being human..
18. PAIN
(Reported by
Patient)
LESION
(Observed by
Physician)
MEDICAL-PSYCHIATRIC JUDGEMENT
(Rendered by Physician)
1. + + Real, organic pain. Successful (somatic) diagnosis.
Professionally validated pain.
2. + _ Imaginary, psychogenic pain. Unsuccessful (somatic)
diagnosis. Malingering, hysterical, hypochondriasis,
somatic delusions etc.
Professionally invalidated pain (the patient should not
have pain).
3. _ + Injury or illness without pain.
Inattention to pain (accident, war).
Denial of pain, unreported pain.
Psychosis, schizophrenia (self mutilation).
Professionally invalidated no-pain (the patient should
have pain).
4. _ _ No pain, no lesion.
Not of medical or psychiatric interest.
Pain, Lesion, Diagnosis
Szasz, T 1956, Pain and Pleasure, Harper
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1. Emotions
Ubel, P.A., Emotions, Decisions and the Limits of Rationality.
Medical Decision Making, Vol. 25, No. 1. 95-96 (2005)
2. Ethical and Moral Constructs
Aquinas, Thomas. Summa Theologica, circa 1270
3. Classical Conditioning
e.g. stimulus/response training (military)
4. Knowledge, previous experience
http://octopus.gma.org/space1/titanic.html
Decision making is affected by…
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1. The Anchoring Trap
disproportional weight to first information
2. The Status Quo Trap
bias toward maintaining current situation
3. The Sunk Cost Trap
perpetuating the mistakes of the past
4. The Confirming Evidence Trap
seek supporting information only
Hidden traps in decision making …
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5. The Framing Trap
misstating a problem – undermining entire D-M process
6. The Over-confidence Trap
overestimating the accuracy of forecasts
7. The Prudence Trap
overcautious of estimates around uncertain events
8. The Recallability Trap
giving undue weight to recent, dramatic events
Hidden traps (continued …
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Literature / Research Review …
• Confusing decision with desire
• Selective assessment of evidence
• Confusing planning with decision making
• Confusing process with outcome
• Misunderstanding or misinterpreting data
• Unsuitable or dysfunctional culture
Effective (Functional) Decision
Making
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Advocacy
• Limit the parameters
• Limit the options
• Exclude non-supportive data
• Limit the information / variables to consider
• Limit time frames
• Take a position and “defend” not “test”
Effective (Functional) Decision
Making
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Inquiry
• Participate as a “healthy sceptic”
• Be disinterested and objective
• Include and consider all positions (“left field”)
• Evaluate “WCS” (worst case scenarios)
• Critique process and logic
• Abandon “protocol”
Effective (Functional) Decision
Making
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.. As easy as A, B, C
A = Activating Event
B = Beliefs
C = Consequences
Ineffective (Dysfunctional)
Decision Making
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Cognitive Behaviour Therapy
(Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy)
Dr Albert Ellis
Albert Ellis Institute – New York
http://www.rebt.org/
Ineffective (Dysfunctional)
Decision Making
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A = Activating Event
Something happened – unpleasant, upsetting
B = Beliefs
Perception and interpretation of this event
C = Consequences
Emotional and behavioural outcomes
Ineffective (Dysfunctional)
Decision Making
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A = Activating Event
Something unpleasant happened –
They criticized my work
B = Beliefs
How I perceive / interpret the event –
It must be because I am an unworthy, incompetent
etc. person
C = Consequences
My emotional and behavioural result - I feel angry,
I feel worthless
Ineffective (Dysfunctional)
Decision Making
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“Advocacy” or “Inquiry”
• How much a “healthy sceptic”?
• Disinterested, objective?
• Able to consider variable positions? (“left field”?)
• What are your “WCS” (worst case scenarios)?
• Are process and logic sound?
• Blinded by rank?
• How is my “A, B, C”?
How does this apply to me?
How do I make decisions?
– Self Awareness
