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Gabrielle Gauthey SVP Public Affairs Communications and regulation Time to start over? IIC annual Conference Montreal – October 27, 2009
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Broadcast vs. Telecoms
[object Object],The new multimedia service landscape ,[object Object],Networks Devices End-users & Key enablers ,[object Object],End users want access to their favorite multimedia content over any device, at any time Source: Nielsen  –  three screen report, Sept 2009 ,[object Object]
Media capable Networks and Devices will become ubiquitous Main drivers for online mass media Media is getting personal  Source: ALU analysis
Industry anticipates bandwidth needs to grow Example with Ofcom perspective More bandwidth = HDTV + better customer experience + content upload
Very High Speed is both fixed and mobile Stimulated by permanent technology improvement Mb/s [Mbps by subscribers] 0,5 4 8 10 24 100 1 000 500 1 2000 ‘ 02 ‘ 04 ‘ 06 ‘ 08 ‘ 10 2012 GPRS UMTS Fixed HSPA+ WiMAX HSPA ADSL ADSL2 ADSL2+ VDSL2 10 000 Femto Mobile GPON P2P - FE LTE WiMAX P2P – GE  NG PON
Wireless data traffic is also exploding IP traffic will increase by 5x by 2013; 90% of all traffic will be video 36% 30.4% 20% 49.7% 30.9% % of users 1.5% Facebook 1% YouTube 4% Social network access 2.6% 4.6% All phones Google  Maps Mobile video iPhone Source: MMetrics, March 2008 7x more video consumption on Smartphones, compared to all phones     65% of mobile data traffic will be video by 2013 (150% CAGR) Source: Cisco VNI
Spectrum CAPEX for investment is frequency dependant Relative CAPEX Relative Cell Cellradius defines amount of base-stations / MHz Frequencies / MHz 700 850 2100 2500 3500 5800 700 850 2100 2500 3500 5800 Capex /%:=  Capex /%:=  Invest in new network 100% 126% 328% 455% 675% 1230% 100% 126% 328% 455% 675% 1230% 1400% 600% 200% 1000% 1200% 1400% 600% 200% 1000% 1200% 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Radius / Km 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Radius / Km 4.7 10 km 10 km 2.9 2.9 8.9 8.9 5.5 5.5 4.7 3.9 3.9 700 850 2100 2500 3500 5800 100% 126% 328% 455% 675% 1230% 10 km 2.9 8.9 5.5 4.7 3.9 10 km 2.9 8.9 5.5 4.7 3.9 10 km 2.9 8.9 5.5 3.9 Quelle : SCF  Studie ( www.digitaldividend.eu ) T - Mobile Quelle : SCF  Studie ( www.digitaldividend.eu ) T - Mobile
Regulatory issues
European Union United States Broadband Access fully Regulated Newly Revised Regulatory Framework Policy & Regulatory Frameworks CompetitiveTelco vs. Cable  Access Infras Net Neutrality Debate Broadband Access  NOT regulated Why are the US and EU approaches to broadband so different? Lower Density,  Aerial fibre Newly Revised Regulatory Framework Only one Access Infra High density,  Buried fibre
EU electronic communications regulatory framework Goals  Tools   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],What is regulated? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Broadband regulation in the US  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Dynamic of the french broadband market 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 24Mb/s 8Mb/s 1Mb/s 512kb/s 1st TV/DSL offer 1st telephony /DSL offer 1st fixed-mobile Convergent offer ADSL ADSL2+ Evolution of broadband technologies and services 1st broadband/ DSL offer 1999 … DSL coverage as of June 30  2009   2007 2008/2009 FTTH 100 Mb/s 1st Very high speed  FTTH offer Growth of the broadband access base
Impact on unbundling   37% of French central offices are unbundled through Local Communities backhaul networks  913 773 988 CO unbundling : alternative carriers backhaul networks  CO unbundlig : alternative carriers backhaul networks + France Telecom dark fiber rental CO unbunling : local community bakchaul network  14,4 M households 2,4 M households 4,0 M households 20,9 M households Number of unbundled CO’s according to backhaul network ownership
NGA: Why « ex-ante » regulation is necessary? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Reality check : regulated duct sharing and Wholesale Bitstream Access Under consideration MDF to cabinet (Proposal) MDF to cabinet Not yet. Following an appeal, implementation deadline postponed by court Research under way Up to 30 Mbps Trials only FTTC+VDSL2; Research under way for other FTTx VDSL2 Duct Sharing : technology neutral WBA : technology neutral
Reality check : FTTH last drop sharing including in-house wiring  France -  Sharing of the terminating segment (from the mutualisation or handover point) - Model agreement between landlord and the operator deploying in-building fibre (“the building operator”) - Obligations of the building operator to the property owner to equip the building and to 3rd-party operators to provide access to its network - New buildings will have to be prewired with fibre starting in 2010 Spain Draft decision: symmetrical obligation for first operator to deploy fibre within a building to share network elements and equipment on reasonable request. Portugal Draft proposals for legislation expected in 2009 Finland Draft decision +  in-building wiring is the property of the building owners/housing associations Italy Installation of in-building fibre does not require property owner's prior permission
Challenges for the future
How to combine public and private investments? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Recovery & Digital Economy plans – How to combine public and private investments? Public initiatives are emerging worldwide ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Net Neutrality  United States vs. Europe ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Security is a complex puzzle of legislative, regulatory & data protection policy Security  Regulation Personal Data Protection Privacy Protection Network Integrity Legal Interception Content Protection Access to data: Always conditional Prior notice & consent before usage Protection of critical assets, NP obligations NGN interoperability with Authorities Internet rights & Status of IP Addresses
www.alcatel-lucent.com Thank you!

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Session 5 Gabrielle Gauthey Communications Regulation Time To Start Over

  • 1. Gabrielle Gauthey SVP Public Affairs Communications and regulation Time to start over? IIC annual Conference Montreal – October 27, 2009
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  • 5. Media capable Networks and Devices will become ubiquitous Main drivers for online mass media Media is getting personal Source: ALU analysis
  • 6. Industry anticipates bandwidth needs to grow Example with Ofcom perspective More bandwidth = HDTV + better customer experience + content upload
  • 7. Very High Speed is both fixed and mobile Stimulated by permanent technology improvement Mb/s [Mbps by subscribers] 0,5 4 8 10 24 100 1 000 500 1 2000 ‘ 02 ‘ 04 ‘ 06 ‘ 08 ‘ 10 2012 GPRS UMTS Fixed HSPA+ WiMAX HSPA ADSL ADSL2 ADSL2+ VDSL2 10 000 Femto Mobile GPON P2P - FE LTE WiMAX P2P – GE NG PON
  • 8. Wireless data traffic is also exploding IP traffic will increase by 5x by 2013; 90% of all traffic will be video 36% 30.4% 20% 49.7% 30.9% % of users 1.5% Facebook 1% YouTube 4% Social network access 2.6% 4.6% All phones Google Maps Mobile video iPhone Source: MMetrics, March 2008 7x more video consumption on Smartphones, compared to all phones  65% of mobile data traffic will be video by 2013 (150% CAGR) Source: Cisco VNI
  • 9. Spectrum CAPEX for investment is frequency dependant Relative CAPEX Relative Cell Cellradius defines amount of base-stations / MHz Frequencies / MHz 700 850 2100 2500 3500 5800 700 850 2100 2500 3500 5800 Capex /%:= Capex /%:= Invest in new network 100% 126% 328% 455% 675% 1230% 100% 126% 328% 455% 675% 1230% 1400% 600% 200% 1000% 1200% 1400% 600% 200% 1000% 1200% 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Radius / Km 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Radius / Km 4.7 10 km 10 km 2.9 2.9 8.9 8.9 5.5 5.5 4.7 3.9 3.9 700 850 2100 2500 3500 5800 100% 126% 328% 455% 675% 1230% 10 km 2.9 8.9 5.5 4.7 3.9 10 km 2.9 8.9 5.5 4.7 3.9 10 km 2.9 8.9 5.5 3.9 Quelle : SCF Studie ( www.digitaldividend.eu ) T - Mobile Quelle : SCF Studie ( www.digitaldividend.eu ) T - Mobile
  • 11. European Union United States Broadband Access fully Regulated Newly Revised Regulatory Framework Policy & Regulatory Frameworks CompetitiveTelco vs. Cable Access Infras Net Neutrality Debate Broadband Access NOT regulated Why are the US and EU approaches to broadband so different? Lower Density, Aerial fibre Newly Revised Regulatory Framework Only one Access Infra High density, Buried fibre
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  • 14. Dynamic of the french broadband market 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 24Mb/s 8Mb/s 1Mb/s 512kb/s 1st TV/DSL offer 1st telephony /DSL offer 1st fixed-mobile Convergent offer ADSL ADSL2+ Evolution of broadband technologies and services 1st broadband/ DSL offer 1999 … DSL coverage as of June 30 2009 2007 2008/2009 FTTH 100 Mb/s 1st Very high speed FTTH offer Growth of the broadband access base
  • 15. Impact on unbundling 37% of French central offices are unbundled through Local Communities backhaul networks 913 773 988 CO unbundling : alternative carriers backhaul networks CO unbundlig : alternative carriers backhaul networks + France Telecom dark fiber rental CO unbunling : local community bakchaul network 14,4 M households 2,4 M households 4,0 M households 20,9 M households Number of unbundled CO’s according to backhaul network ownership
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  • 17. Reality check : regulated duct sharing and Wholesale Bitstream Access Under consideration MDF to cabinet (Proposal) MDF to cabinet Not yet. Following an appeal, implementation deadline postponed by court Research under way Up to 30 Mbps Trials only FTTC+VDSL2; Research under way for other FTTx VDSL2 Duct Sharing : technology neutral WBA : technology neutral
  • 18. Reality check : FTTH last drop sharing including in-house wiring France - Sharing of the terminating segment (from the mutualisation or handover point) - Model agreement between landlord and the operator deploying in-building fibre (“the building operator”) - Obligations of the building operator to the property owner to equip the building and to 3rd-party operators to provide access to its network - New buildings will have to be prewired with fibre starting in 2010 Spain Draft decision: symmetrical obligation for first operator to deploy fibre within a building to share network elements and equipment on reasonable request. Portugal Draft proposals for legislation expected in 2009 Finland Draft decision + in-building wiring is the property of the building owners/housing associations Italy Installation of in-building fibre does not require property owner's prior permission
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  • 23. Security is a complex puzzle of legislative, regulatory & data protection policy Security Regulation Personal Data Protection Privacy Protection Network Integrity Legal Interception Content Protection Access to data: Always conditional Prior notice & consent before usage Protection of critical assets, NP obligations NGN interoperability with Authorities Internet rights & Status of IP Addresses

Notas del editor

  1. Agenda Pages This page allows for the listing of the sections within a presentation.
  2. Europe – Fortement régulé Directives Access, Universal Services, Market Definitions – Market 4 and 5 Needs for regulation; SMP regulation US Dérégulation progressive since there is only 1,5 platform – Cable network being partially deployed
  3. Scalability : GPON = distributed ethernet switch with strong shared fiber advantages Passive Outside plant – optimized fiber management 3. Cost optimized FTTH technolology: ducts & fiber, CO handling 4. Optimised open access with GPON: sharing of dark fiber without the need of collocating Active equipment.
  4. Example of BB market in France. Pour commencer, rappel Marché du haut débit reste dynamique Croissance soutenue : + 30% en un an Concurrence soutenue environ 50% parts de marché opérateurs alternatifs (stable) dégroupage 3,5 M au 01/10 (+ 1 M en un an) câble : 6% du marché Couverture quasi complète du territoire : 98% en fin d’année [WiMax arrive pour le reste] 55% zone concurrence [70% en 2008 avec RIP et LFO] (se préparer à répondre LFO, consultation en cours)
  5. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act 4.7 B $ to provide broadband to underserved areas 2.5 B $ to fund broadband infrastrusture in rural areas 4.5 B$ for electric grid modernization (“smart grids”) 2 B $ for health IT programs 29 B $ for transportation programs (highways safety, fraffic monitoring,...) EU recovery plan Achieve 100% broadband coverage in EU by 2010 1 B € earmarked for rural broadband Creation and/or upgrade of access NATIONAL PLANS IN EUROPE: Greek FTTH Public-Private Partnership 2.1 B € investment Target : 2 million homes passed by 2012 Digital Britain 2 Mb/s universal broadband access service in 2012 200 M £ NGA fund is created to speed-up deployments Local Communities involvement in low density areas Italian broadband plan 800 M € to be allocated to achieve broadband coverage in Italy French digital plan 750 M€ will be invested by Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations to roll-out shared optical loops + Coming broadband and digital plans in Germany, Poland and also from Russia,... China’s recovery plan 4 Trillion RMB 09-10 ICT included in pillar industries program Australian National Broadband Network 100 MB/s to 90% of subscribers 43 B A$ ( 23 B €) New Zealand “Broadband Investment Initiative” 1.5 B NZ $ investment plan announced March 09