Homeland Security and Policing: Opportunities and Challenges of Accelerating Change
1. Homeland Security and Policing: Opportunities and Challenges of Accelerating Change FBI Futures Working Group 2005 John Smart, President, ASF (accelerating.org/slides.html)
28. Physical Space: Technological “Cephalization” of Earth "No one can deny that a world network of economic and psychic affiliations is being woven at ever increasing speed which envelops and constantly penetrates more deeply within each of us. With every day that passes it becomes a little more impossible for us to act or think otherwise than collectively ." - Teilhard de Chardin, 1954 “ Finite Sphericity + Acceleration = Phase Transition ”
53. Something Curious Is Going On Unexplained. (Don’t look for this in your physics or information theory texts…)
54. The Technological Singularity: 2 nd Order “Envelope of S-Curves”? Each unique physical-computational substrate appears to have its own S-shaped “capability curve.” The information inherent in these substrates is apparently not made obsolete, but is instead incorporated into the developmental architecture of the next emergent system.
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57. Henry Adams, 1909: The First Singularity Theorist The final Ethereal Phase would last only about four years, and thereafter "bring Thought to the limit of its possibilities." Wild speculation or computational reality? Still too early to tell, at present.
58. Eric Chaisson’s “Phi” ( Φ ) : A Universal Moore’s Law Curve Free Energy Rate Density Substrate (ergs/second/gram) Galaxies 0.5 Stars 2 (“counterintuitive”) Planets (Early) 75 Plants 900 Animals/Genetics 20,000( 10^4 ) Brains (Human) 150,000(10^5) Culture (Human) 500,000(10^5) Int. Comb. Engines (10^6) Jets (10^8) Pentium Chips ( 10^11 ) Source: Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution , 2001 Ф time
59. Understanding MEST Compression MEST compression/Time The Finite Universe Box Six Billion Years Ago We End Up Here An Upper Complexity Bound? A Forward Time Bound? Calculations per second/ Model complexity/Intelligence
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61. The Left and Right Hands of “Evolutionary Development” Complex Environmental Interaction Selection & Convergence “ Convergent Selection” Emergence,Global Optima MEST-Compression Standard Attractors Development Replication & Variation “ Natural Selection” Adaptive Radiation Chaos, Contingency Pseudo-Random Search Strange Attractors Evolution Right Hand Left Hand Well-Explored Phase Space Optimization New Computat’l Phase Space Opening
62. Cambrian Explosion Complex Environmental Interaction Selection/Emergence/ Phase Space Collapse/ MEST Collapse Development Adaptive Radiation/Chaos/ Pseudo-Random Search Evolution 570 mya. 35 body plans emerged immediately after. No new body plans since! Only new brain plans, built on top of the body plans (homeobox gene duplication). Body/brain plans: “eukaryotic multicell. evolutionary developmental substrates.” Invertebrates Vertebrates Bacteria Insects Multicellularity Discovered
63. Marbles, Landscapes, and Basins (Complex Systems, Evolution, & Development) The marbles ( systems ) roll around on the landscape, each taking unpredictable ( evolutionary ) paths. But the paths predictably converge ( development ) on low points ( MEST compression ), the “attractors” at the bottom of each basin.
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66. Physical Space: A Transparent Society (“Panopticon”) Hitachi’s mu-chip: RFID for paper currency David Brin, The Transparent Society , 1998
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74. Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin) Greg Panos (and Mother) PersonaFoundation.org “ I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.” “ I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children.” Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “50% her.” When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be “80% him.” Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition. When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological will feel like only growth, not death. We wouldn’t have it any other way.
81. National Innovation Initiative Recommendations (sample) Innovate America , NII, Council on Competitiveness, 2004 Our Biggest Opportunity: Innovation partnerships with the 3 billion new workers who weren’t in the global economy ten years ago. Improved IP, tort law, intangible disclosure law. Reward ten regional “innovation hotspots” with 5 yrs of funding Matching funds for postsecondary MS programs in tech and innovation National innovation scorecard, prizes. Better patent office. Develop “services science” as a new academic discipline Portable graduate tech fellowships similar to NSF fellowships New innovation metrics, national innovation agenda 3% of DoD budget must go back to sci-tech, 20% of this at U’s National sci-tech scholarship fund, tax credits to contributors Cabinet-level or NEC interagency group 3% of federal R&D for “innov. accel.” grants Expedited, expanded sci-tech immigration Politics Investment Talent
Smile! David Brin: positive attitude, readily admitting what we don’t know.
MNC’s benefit even more than nation states in the era of globalization. There are only 280 nation states and an unlimited number of MNC’s.
In the automation economy, consumer products are as easy to make as information. Consumer education and laws that attribute the true cost to each product can “rationalize” a consumer economy.
(this may be an anomaly) The more powerful innovation becomes, the more the public expects the latest offerings to be the best solution. What private sector security and community development companies and products have this dynamic?
Our accelerating world adds regular surprise to the mix. If you aren’t surprised (perhaps even astonished) at least once a day, you aren’t looking closely enough.
We have two options: Future Shock or Future Shaping . Never has the lever of technology been so powerful. Never have so few had so much impact, and unrealized potential for impact.
With no skills to take modern jobs, they steal what they need. Supermarkets, trucks, even bank heists. Anti-globalization populists like Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. Al Qaedas and Zapatistas want global disconnection.
(Human pop. flatlines in 2050. “First World effect” 2nd order deriv. of world energy demand is negative. ICT acceleration continues.) We see evolutionarily more and better of the above, but now global, not local.
Compare US to Taiwan, and also to more stagnant economies like Europe, and copycats like Japan.
Leadership is also mentioned in the FBI’
How about a simulation of a real-world Watts where you get points for cleaning up the graffiti and gangs with a very limited budget?
Many of the greatest innovations of the 20th century have been financial innovations, specifically securitization innovations (making a market liquid). As crime rates go down, this increases community investment and revenues. Perhaps only residents could hold these bonds initially. State and feds should be willing to subsidize these in problem states and cities. They would generate an investor attitude among the underprivileged, could be distributed to high school grads, civil servants, volunteers. They would be like stocks in that they would be instruments with highly variable dividends. Branding would recall the 1940’s wartime “Buy Bonds” billboards.
Why is it that when new IT becomes available some countries (US) and companies (Dell) adopt them quickly and others do not? Labor laws and ease of hiring and firing are key to institutional technology adoption. Relationships between industry and unions are rate-limiting for change. What percentage of temp workers does your industry employ? In the recent hockey strike, unions of owners collectively bargained with unions of players. How would the protective service employers be “unionized”? How important is it for the FBI to lead innovation standards in protective services?
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