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State of Minnesota Economic Outlook: Implications for the System Presented to Northeast Higher Education District November 12, 2009
Fiscal year 2010 budget gaps
Spending cuts as percentage of actions
Use of ARRA funds as percentage of actions
Fiscal year 2011 budget gaps
Fiscal year 2012 budget gaps
State of Minnesota revenues below forecast: fiscal years 2010-2011 Source: “But…What About Tomorrow?”, presentation to LCPFP Balanced Budget Subcommittee, October 2009. $ millions Estimate Actual Variance % Individual $1,728 $1,635 $(93) (5.4) Sales 874 854 (20) (2.3) Corporate 129 182 52 41.1 Motor Vehicle 16 20 4 25.0 Other 372 376 4 1.1 Total $3,119 $3,067 $(52) (1.7)
State of Minnesota fiscal year 2010 Q1 revenues below fiscal year 2009 Q1 Source: “But…What About Tomorrow?”, presentation to LCPFP Balanced Budget Subcommittee, October 2009. $ millions Estimate Variance  % Yr Chg % Withholding $1,398 $(27) (2.0) $(112) (7.6) Indiv. Est. 290 (55) (18.9) (99) (29.6) Gross Sales 924 (13) (1.4) (143) (13.6) Corp. Est. 127 37 29.1 (15) (8.4) Total $3,119 $(52) (1.7) $(359) (10.5)
Minnesota Is Facing Significant Long-Term Bud g et Problems
Problems Remain for 2012-13 Biennium ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: “But…What About Tomorrow?”, presentation to LCPFP Balanced Budget Subcommittee, October 2009. $ millions FY2012 FY2013 FY2012-13 Revenues $16,576 $17,729 $34,305 Expenditures 19,728 19,008 38,736 Difference ($3,152) $(1,279) $(4,431)
Economic/Demographic Environment Has Changed ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: “But…What About Tomorrow?”, presentation to LCPFP Balanced Budget Subcommittee, October 2009.
Minnesota Faces a Fiscal Trap ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: “But…What About Tomorrow?”, presentation to LCPFP Balanced Budget Subcommittee, October 2009.
2007-09 Recession Permanently Reduced the Base for Future Revenues Source: “But…What About Tomorrow?”, presentation to LCPFP Balanced Budget Subcommittee, October 2009.
Next 25 Years--State Revenue Growth Rate Projected To Slow Budget Trends Commission, 2009
From 2010 to 2020, Minnesota will  see large increases age 50s and 60s   Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center, rev 2007 Numbers are rounded
Budget pressures will change -- more 65+ than school age by 2020 Census counts & State Demographer projection, revised 2007
If state health care costs continue their current trend, state spending on other services can’t grow General Fund Spending Outlook, presentation to the Budget Trends Commission, August 2008, Dybdal, Reitan and Broat
How do we get out of this fiscal trap? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: “But…What About Tomorrow?”, presentation to LCPFP Balanced Budget Subcommittee, October 2009.
Impact to the Minnesota State Colleges and Universities
Higher education share of state’s budget Fiscal year 2011 estimate includes unallotment. Higher education includes the Minnesota State Colleges and Universities, the University of Minnesota, and the Minnesota Office of Higher Education.
State appropriation per FYE student During past decade, appropriation per FYE student has decreased $765 (16 percent); adjusted for inflation decrease is $1,759 (36.5 percent)
Minnesota state colleges and universities share of state budget ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Northeast Higher Education District share of allocation framework ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Minnesota state colleges and universities strategy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
System’s strategic focus 2010 Action Plan  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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State of Minnesota Economic Outlook: Implications for the System

  • 1. State of Minnesota Economic Outlook: Implications for the System Presented to Northeast Higher Education District November 12, 2009
  • 2. Fiscal year 2010 budget gaps
  • 3. Spending cuts as percentage of actions
  • 4. Use of ARRA funds as percentage of actions
  • 5. Fiscal year 2011 budget gaps
  • 6. Fiscal year 2012 budget gaps
  • 7. State of Minnesota revenues below forecast: fiscal years 2010-2011 Source: “But…What About Tomorrow?”, presentation to LCPFP Balanced Budget Subcommittee, October 2009. $ millions Estimate Actual Variance % Individual $1,728 $1,635 $(93) (5.4) Sales 874 854 (20) (2.3) Corporate 129 182 52 41.1 Motor Vehicle 16 20 4 25.0 Other 372 376 4 1.1 Total $3,119 $3,067 $(52) (1.7)
  • 8. State of Minnesota fiscal year 2010 Q1 revenues below fiscal year 2009 Q1 Source: “But…What About Tomorrow?”, presentation to LCPFP Balanced Budget Subcommittee, October 2009. $ millions Estimate Variance % Yr Chg % Withholding $1,398 $(27) (2.0) $(112) (7.6) Indiv. Est. 290 (55) (18.9) (99) (29.6) Gross Sales 924 (13) (1.4) (143) (13.6) Corp. Est. 127 37 29.1 (15) (8.4) Total $3,119 $(52) (1.7) $(359) (10.5)
  • 9. Minnesota Is Facing Significant Long-Term Bud g et Problems
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. 2007-09 Recession Permanently Reduced the Base for Future Revenues Source: “But…What About Tomorrow?”, presentation to LCPFP Balanced Budget Subcommittee, October 2009.
  • 14. Next 25 Years--State Revenue Growth Rate Projected To Slow Budget Trends Commission, 2009
  • 15. From 2010 to 2020, Minnesota will see large increases age 50s and 60s Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center, rev 2007 Numbers are rounded
  • 16. Budget pressures will change -- more 65+ than school age by 2020 Census counts & State Demographer projection, revised 2007
  • 17. If state health care costs continue their current trend, state spending on other services can’t grow General Fund Spending Outlook, presentation to the Budget Trends Commission, August 2008, Dybdal, Reitan and Broat
  • 18.
  • 19. Impact to the Minnesota State Colleges and Universities
  • 20. Higher education share of state’s budget Fiscal year 2011 estimate includes unallotment. Higher education includes the Minnesota State Colleges and Universities, the University of Minnesota, and the Minnesota Office of Higher Education.
  • 21. State appropriation per FYE student During past decade, appropriation per FYE student has decreased $765 (16 percent); adjusted for inflation decrease is $1,759 (36.5 percent)
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.

Notas del editor

  1. Data that was reported to the National Conference of State Legislators: Minnesota: FY2012 budget gap $3.15 billion; 18.9% of general fund budget
  2. FY2010: END OF FIRST QUARTER $52 million less than projected (1.7% decrease) Largest variance in individual income tax category