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Sharing a case study paper I wrote while taking MGMNT-X 433.02 Security Analysis class from UCLA Extension in summer 2015. This paper was in response to the case study titled "Warren E. Buffett, 1995" from Darden Business Publishing (UV0006 V1.7).
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Case Notes on MW Petroleum Corporation (A) Why Should We Care About Real Options? Ignoring real options in a project often leads to an underestimation of the true project value. Because real options are not explicitly linked to cash flows, they may seem difficult to identify. Here are some typical examples of real options. · The option to expand an existing investment project. · Research and development (R&D) is an example of a growth option. · The option to delay an investment project. · The option to abandon a project that has already been undertaken. From the above examples, we find that real options reflect the flexibility inherent in any capital investment process, which is often ignored by the DCF analysis because flexibility is hard to quantify in terms of cash flows. Fortunately, the breakthrough in option pricing theory provides us with the tools to find the value of these real options. Types of Reserves MW Petroleum’s estimated reserves can be classified into four major categories: · proved developed reserves · proved undeveloped reserves · probable reserves · possible reserves Exhibits 3 through 6 tell us the production and cash flow projections for each of the four types of reserves. Risk-adjusted Discount Rate (RADR) For valuation purposes, we need an estimate of MW's WACC to discount cash flows. Unfortunately, the case does not provide many details. This presents a very realistic problem that is often faced when attempting to do analysis in the real world. For example, because MW is a subsidiary of Amoco, its (market) equity value is not available. We do not have a clear idea about the debt and equity mix of MW either. However, we do have the following information: The average asset (unlevered) beta for Oil companies = 0.64 (footnote b of Exhibit 2). Given this information, we can use the CAPM to calculate the cost of equity for MW. · Cost of equity = risk-free rate + beta * market risk premium For the risk-free rate, we can use the 1990 year-end 30-year US government bond yield given in the MW case in Exhibit 10. We choose the 30-year bond because the time horizon of the cash flows given in the case is 15 years, which is longer than 10 years. Remember, projects in this industry are long-term and, therefore, call for a longer-term Treasury yield to proxy for the risk-free rate. To determine the market risk premium, we can rely on a report that is maintained by the Stern School of Business at New York University. This report maintains historic annual returns on stock, T-bonds, and T-bills from 1928 – Current. The report also maintains the historic market-risk premium, starting in 1960. To be consistent with our risk-free rate, we want to use the historical market-risk premium for 1990 in the following report: · http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html Next we assume that Miller Equilibrium holds. This implies: · The WACC, which is the risk-adjusted discount rate for discoun ...
Case Notes on MW Petroleum Corporation (A)Why Should We Care A.docx
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Sharing a case study paper I wrote while taking MGMNT-X 433.02 Security Analysis class from UCLA Extension in summer 2015. This paper was in response to the case study titled "Warren E. Buffett, 1995" from Darden Business Publishing (UV0006 V1.7).
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Case Notes on MW Petroleum Corporation (A) Why Should We Care About Real Options? Ignoring real options in a project often leads to an underestimation of the true project value. Because real options are not explicitly linked to cash flows, they may seem difficult to identify. Here are some typical examples of real options. · The option to expand an existing investment project. · Research and development (R&D) is an example of a growth option. · The option to delay an investment project. · The option to abandon a project that has already been undertaken. From the above examples, we find that real options reflect the flexibility inherent in any capital investment process, which is often ignored by the DCF analysis because flexibility is hard to quantify in terms of cash flows. Fortunately, the breakthrough in option pricing theory provides us with the tools to find the value of these real options. Types of Reserves MW Petroleum’s estimated reserves can be classified into four major categories: · proved developed reserves · proved undeveloped reserves · probable reserves · possible reserves Exhibits 3 through 6 tell us the production and cash flow projections for each of the four types of reserves. Risk-adjusted Discount Rate (RADR) For valuation purposes, we need an estimate of MW's WACC to discount cash flows. Unfortunately, the case does not provide many details. This presents a very realistic problem that is often faced when attempting to do analysis in the real world. For example, because MW is a subsidiary of Amoco, its (market) equity value is not available. We do not have a clear idea about the debt and equity mix of MW either. However, we do have the following information: The average asset (unlevered) beta for Oil companies = 0.64 (footnote b of Exhibit 2). Given this information, we can use the CAPM to calculate the cost of equity for MW. · Cost of equity = risk-free rate + beta * market risk premium For the risk-free rate, we can use the 1990 year-end 30-year US government bond yield given in the MW case in Exhibit 10. We choose the 30-year bond because the time horizon of the cash flows given in the case is 15 years, which is longer than 10 years. Remember, projects in this industry are long-term and, therefore, call for a longer-term Treasury yield to proxy for the risk-free rate. To determine the market risk premium, we can rely on a report that is maintained by the Stern School of Business at New York University. This report maintains historic annual returns on stock, T-bonds, and T-bills from 1928 – Current. The report also maintains the historic market-risk premium, starting in 1960. To be consistent with our risk-free rate, we want to use the historical market-risk premium for 1990 in the following report: · http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html Next we assume that Miller Equilibrium holds. This implies: · The WACC, which is the risk-adjusted discount rate for discoun ...
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About the Author- Nitish Kumar Pandit. I have completed graduation from University of Delhi. currently i am pursuing PGDM from Institute of Marketing & Management. Hello all, this is the presentation on Toshiba scam. In this i have done deep research and try to cover all the aspects of the scam of Toshiba. This is very useful presentation for the the students of MBA/PGDM. Initially i have discussed about the company and different era of fraud. The company however rectify and handle that fraud in very efficient manner.
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On July 21, 2015, Toshiba CEO Hisao Tanaka announced his resignation in the face of an accounting scandal tied to about $1.2 billion in overstated operating profits. Details of the scandal emerged the day before when an independent investigative panel released a report describing the accounting improprieties in detail
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