Cruise The Crop Markets 2010 Day 1

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Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies

Business Technology

Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL 33487 800-622-7628 jroach@roachag.com http://www.roachag.com © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Grain prices set their peak of a new price plateau in 2008. The new price plateau will remain but prices will search out the bottom of their range again this fall, if crops are good. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Why will the new price plateau remain? © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Population Growth Rates Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Global Meat beef + pork + chickens & turkeys Production, per capita consumption, and population Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Dollar’s value has been driving trade for the last 2 years Dollar Index © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Index funds increasingly important beginning 4 years ago © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Five-year moving average of world production values. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

GSCI™ Components and Dollar Weights (%) (12-18-2009) Energy 69.53 Industrial Metals 8.21 Precious Metals 3.30 Agriculture 14.71; Wheat 3.16; Red Wheat 0.63; Corn 3.40 Soybeans 2.39; Cotton 1.15; Sugar 2.82 Coffee 0.78; Cocoa 0.38 ; Livestock 4.26 Live Cattle 2.44; Feeder Cattle 0.46; Lean Hogs 1.36 © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

What role did fundamentals play in 2009 grain prices? © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

#1 - World Soybean Crop down 27.4 million tons = 34% of entire U.S. Crop © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

#2 - March Intentions March Intentions © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

#3- On May 17 only 62% of the U.S. corn crop was planted with Illinois at 20%. Beans were 25% planted with Illinois at 1% © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Dollar back in decline from Feb 09 to June 09 Dollar Index Bears’ 1st Target © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Speculative money again flowed into grain markets as traders chased beginning bull market moves© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Grain Prices Dropped from July to Sept 2009 because: ,[object Object]

U.S. farmers planted more acres than expected and the weather became nearly perfect for big crops© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Then Prices Rallied from Sept to December ,[object Object]

U.S. Dollar resumed its decline and inflation fear grew

China became an aggressive buyer of beans

Speculative fever re-ignited in the face of shrinking production, increasing bean demand estimates© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

What are the Fundamentals Now? © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Aug forecast +31.5 MMT Nov & Dec +39.4 MMT Jan +42.58 MMT © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

Bean Situation and Price Outlook ,[object Object]

2010 ending stocks no longer tight, but we must raise big crops in 2010

Prices should peak prior to normal March June selling season if no U.S. crop problem develops© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

FSU-12 Exports 2007-8 – 27.47 MMT 2008-9 – 54.71 MMT 2009-10 – 49.50 MMT U.S. Corn Exports 2007-8 – 69.89 MMT 2008-9 – 51.17 MMT 2009-10 – 55.79 MMT U.S. Wheat Exports 2007-8 – 34.36 MMT 2008-9 – 27.64 MMT 2009-10 – 22.45 MMT © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

USDA 2009 World Corn Yields 12/10/09 © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

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Cruise The Crop Markets 2010 Day 1

1. Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies Cruise The Crop Markets by John Roach January 17 - 24, 2009 Day 1 © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

2. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL 33487 800-622-7628 jroach@roachag.com http://www.roachag.com © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

3. Grain prices set their peak of a new price plateau in 2008. The new price plateau will remain but prices will search out the bottom of their range again this fall, if crops are good. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

6. Global Meat beef + pork + chickens & turkeys Production, per capita consumption, and population Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

10. GSCI™ Components and Dollar Weights (%) (12-18-2009) Energy 69.53 Industrial Metals 8.21 Precious Metals 3.30 Agriculture 14.71; Wheat 3.16; Red Wheat 0.63; Corn 3.40 Soybeans 2.39; Cotton 1.15; Sugar 2.82 Coffee 0.78; Cocoa 0.38 ; Livestock 4.26 Live Cattle 2.44; Feeder Cattle 0.46; Lean Hogs 1.36 © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

16. #3- On May 17 only 62% of the U.S. corn crop was planted with Illinois at 20%. Beans were 25% planted with Illinois at 1% © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

18.

19. China building soybean reserves

20. Fear of rampant inflation

21. Speculative money again flowed into grain markets as traders chased beginning bull market moves© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

22.

23. U.S. Dollar quit getting cheaper

24. There was no inflation….yet

25. China quit buying

26. U.S. farmers planted more acres than expected and the weather became nearly perfect for big crops© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

27.

28. U.S. Dollar resumed its decline and inflation fear grew

29. China became an aggressive buyer of beans

30. Speculative fever re-ignited in the face of shrinking production, increasing bean demand estimates© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

49.

50. China demand numbers increasing

51. 2010 ending stocks no longer tight, but we must raise big crops in 2010

52. Prices should peak prior to normal March June selling season if no U.S. crop problem develops© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

55. FSU-12 Exports 2007-8 – 27.47 MMT 2008-9 – 54.71 MMT 2009-10 – 49.50 MMT U.S. Corn Exports 2007-8 – 69.89 MMT 2008-9 – 51.17 MMT 2009-10 – 55.79 MMT U.S. Wheat Exports 2007-8 – 34.36 MMT 2008-9 – 27.64 MMT 2009-10 – 22.45 MMT © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

76.

77. U.S. ending stocks likely to increase due to smaller exports and feed offset by + ethanol

78. Livestock producers losing less money

89.

90. Prices increasingly dominated by former Soviet Union production

91. Index fund ownership distorting price higher and basis wider

Cruise The Crop Markets 2010 Day 1

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