1. Central Asia experiences In
drought management
Vadim Sokolov, Galina Stulina
GPW, SIC ICWC
Bratislava
October, 2012

2. Central Asia
Central Asia is region, where drought is routine condition of life
and crop production and agricultural production are adapted to
such enormous climatic conditions.

3. The Basic Indicators of Water and Land
Resources Development in the Aral Sea Basin
Indicator Unit 1960 1980 1990 2010 Forecast (2020)
Optimistic Pessimistic
48.5
Population million 14,4 26,8 33,6 54,0 70,0
thousand 8201
Irrigated area 4510 6920 7600 9330 9300
hectares
Irrigated area per capita ha/capita 0,32 0,26 0,23 0.17 0,17 0,12
109.5
Total water withdrawal km3/year 60,61 120,69 116,27 104,5 117,0
91.6
Including for irrigation km3/year 56,15 106,79 106,4 86,8 96,7
Specific withdrawal
m3/ha 12450 15430 14000 11171 9300 10400
per 1 hectare
Specific withdrawal
m3/capita 4270 4500 3460 2259 1935 1670
per capita
GNP bln.USD 16,1 48,1 74,0 76.7 109 77,0

4. b) Climate change W
N
E
Uzhydromet
S
Ano1320
> 40
40 - 60
60 - 80
80 - 100
100 - 120
120 - 140
>160
Long-term changes of the annual sums of precipitations
200
Regional indicators of change of a climate
180
160
Ant13200
140
-1.2 120
-0.8
-0.4 100
0.0
0.4 80
0.8 60
1.2
1.6 40
20
N
0
W E 1933 1939 1945 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999
S
1.5
1
0.6
0.5 evaporation
0.4
0
0.2
-0.5
0
-1
-0.2
-1.5
-0.4
-2
-0.6
-2.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
1933 1939 1945 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999

5. Annual national temperatures increased
by:
• 0.29 0C every 10 years in Uzbekistan (1950–
2005);
• 0.26 0C every 10 years in Kazakhstan (1936–
2005);
• 0.18 0C every 10 years in Turkmenistan
(1961–1995);
• 0.10 0C every 10 years in Tajikistan (1940–
2005);
• 0.08 0C every 10 years in Kyrgyzstan (1883–
2005).

6. 40
Суммарный сток Нарын, Карадарья, Чирчик
Extreme events
35
30
1945-1965
occurrence
25
км3
20 Средний
15 уровень
Total Runoff of
10
5 Naryn, Karadarya
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 and Chirchik Rivers
Средний период повторения маловодья
4,25 года
Frequency of dry Суммарный сток Нарын, Карадарья, Чирчик
year occurrence is
40.00
4.25 year on average 35.00
30.00
1980-2004
25.00
км3
20.00
Средний
15.00
уровень
Frequency of dry year 10.00
5.00
occurrence is 3 year on 0.00
average 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Средний период повторения маловодья
3 года

7. c) Anthropogenic drought
Am u Darya River
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
mln.m3
50000
40000
Most
30000
20000
dangerous type
10000
0 of drought it’s
anthropogenic,
32
35
38
41
44
47
50
53
56
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
Pyandj+Vaksh Kerki Tuyamuyun Chatly
manmade,
which is
Syr Darya River
caused by
35000 wrong methods
30000
25000 of water
mln.m3
20000
15000 managing,
10000
5000 allocation and
0
operation.
1932
1935
1938
1941
1944
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
Total w ater resources Kal Bekabad

8. Change in
landscape on the
exposed bed of
the Aral Sea
Amudarya channel
Tamarix
Populus Asiana
Change in vegetation. Withered trees and bushes

9. Principal directions of Climate
changes program in Central Asia
•Public Awareness
•Adaptation

10. Forecasting activity and broad information allow
designing and implementing adaptive complex.
All adaptation measures related to agriculture and
water should be divided on three levels:
• national measures, including strategy;
• regional measures (taking into account
transboundary waters);
• local level, especially farm level - adaptive response.

11. И зм е н е н и е п р о до л ж и т е л ь н о с т и п е р и о да в е г е т а ц и и х л о п ч а т н и к а
( С р е дн е г о с о р т а )
П о п р о г н о зу H a dC M 2 н а у р о в е н ь
16 43 30 45 19
2020 г.
Б а зо в ы й 20 43 29 48 21
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
С е в - в с х о ды
В с х о ды - б у т о н и за ц и я
Б у т о н и за ц и я - ц в е т е н и е
Ц ве т е н и е р а с кр ы т и е 1 -ы х ко р о б о ч е к
Р а с к р ы т и е 1 - ы х к о р о б о ч е к с о зр е в а н и е 7 0 % к о р о б о ч е к
Change of growing period

12. Change in vegetation cover
early ripening Early ripening variety
variety Скороспелые сорта
50
50
Дни
Days
0
Сев- Всходы-
Базовый
0 19 43 28 42 Base option
Soving- Sprouting- Budding Flowering-
вариант
Climate change
Изменение 1915
Base option 40 43 29 28
39 42
Climate климата
change 15 40 29 39
Фенологическая фаза
Phenological phase Late ripening variety
80
late ripening variety
60
Days
40
Base option 20
0
Soving- Sprouting- Flowering-
Budding
sprouting budding opening
Climate change Base option 20 47 30 64
Climate change 16 46 30 56
Phenological phase

13. 24-Apr
14-Apr
4-Apr
25-Mar Crossing over
the Limits
date
15-Mar
5-Mar
24-Feb Established for
14-Feb Air
4-Feb
25-Jan Temperatures
0 5 10 15 20
(оС)
Tashkent average
Ташкент Ср Ташкент 1 Карши Ср Карши 1
Ср – present conditions, 1 – under climate changes: using data of
weather stations in Tashkent and Kashkadarya provinces)

14. Practices used by farmers
Practices used by farmers
Flow Measurement

15. Water monitoring
and management

16. Traditional method of water saving in time of
drought is “alternative” irrigation - water is
applied not to each furrow, but to every
other one

17. Water productivity
Inflow
Inflow Yield changes Productivity
changes Irrigation water
(growing Yield against the changes against
against the productivity
season) control the control
control
Irrigation schemes
m3/ha kg/ha
Alternate irrigation (with filmy) 725 -20 5400 35 7.4 69
Every furrow irrigation (with filmy) 915 1 5520 38 6.0 37
Alternate irrigation (without filmy) 730 -20 3400 -15 4.7 6
Every furrow irrigation (without filmy) 907 0 4000 0 4.4 0

18. Irrigation by water mixed with manure (local name “sharvat”).
Water to irrigated field flows through a big hole, in which
manure is put preliminary for proper mixing with water and
following delivery to furrow
30% attempted to
reduce losses by
mulching of furrow or
installation of
polyethylene strip in
head of furrow.

20. Change in area of
Improving water-allowance zones
accuracy of
water delivery
from ±10% to
±2%
Actual water delivery

21. Use of water by winter wheat, depending on year’s
water availability

22. Regional (transboundary) management
SCADA system of automation control

23. Training Seminar
Farmer training in adapting to climate change

24. Stabilization and use of the dried Aral Sea bed

25. • Central Asian countries have to develop their own
National Policies to deal with climate change, where the
development of alternative environmentally friendly
energy sources and energy efficiency should become key
priorities. They should also take responsibility for
financing the implementation of these policies.
• Policies and activities for preventing climate change and
climate change adaptation should be integrated into the
socioeconomic development policies. The countries of
the region should improve intersectoral and
interdepartmental coordination.

26. • The transfer of new techniques and methods for climate
change adaptation and emissions reduction should be
combined with the transfer of relevant knowledge and skills
to local experts in order to develop and establish local
production, service industry, and to build capacity in whole.
• The process of development and implementation of policy in
the sphere of climate change should be open and
transparent. Governments and governmental bodies need
to hold broad consultations with communities and take into
account opinions of public organizations while making
decisions.