2. Contents
Definitions
of Technology Forecasting
Why Technology Forecasting ?
Model of Technology Forecasting
Elements of Technology Forecasting
Objectives of Technology Forecasting
Technology Forecasting
TF Intro - 2
3. Technology Forecasting
Three definitions of technology forecasting
from leading experts
Technology forecasting is
A group of techniques that predict the
direction, character, rate, implication, and
impact of technological advances
-Vanston
Technology Forecasting
TF Intro - 3
5. Technology Forecasting
A prediction of the future characteristics of
useful machines, procedures, or techniques
-Martino
Anticipation of the character, intensity, and
timing of changes in technology
-Porter
Technology Forecasting
TF Intro - 5
6. Why Technological Forecasting?
It is Indispensable
It improves Quality of Decision making
Scanning the technological environment
Anticipating emerging technological changes
Identifying suitable technologies by
evaluating various alternatives
Planning for future technology needs
Technology Forecasting
TF Intro - 6
7. Technological Forecasting Model
Viewed as a Input – Process – Output System
INPUTS
Forecasting
Problems
and
Objectives,
Data Inputs
PROCESS
Forecasting
process and
Techniques
REVIEW
OUTPUT
Forecast
8. Elements of Technological Forecasting
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Forecasting problems & objectives
Data inputs for forecasting
Forecaster
Forecasting process
Forecasting techniques
Forecast (output)
Review Mechanism
Technology Forecasting
TF Intro - 8
9. Objectives for Technology
Forecasting
The
first step in a technology
forecasting project is to determine the
purpose the forecast is to serve.
Vanston suggests five purposes
Projections of the rates at which new
technologies will replace older ones
Important to companies dependent on the old
as well as the new technology
Technology Forecasting
TF Intro - 9
10. Objectives for Technology
Forecasting
Assistance in the Management of Technical
Research and Development
Forecasting the technology emergence process can
facilitate allocation of R&D resources
Evaluation of the Present Value of Technology
Under Development
Forecasting the commercial value of a technology
in the development process
Technology Forecasting
TF Intro - 10
11. Objectives for Technology
Forecasting
Identification and Evaluation of New Products
or Processes that May Present the
Organization with New Opportunities or
Threats
Forecasting new business opportunities or threats
to present markets
Technology Forecasting
TF Intro - 11
12. Objectives for Technology
Forecasting
Analysis of New Technical Developments that
Might Change Organizational Strategies or
Operations
Forecasting technology changes that might change
the internal operations of the organization itself.
Technology Forecasting
TF Intro - 12